Charles Payne Show March 19, 2025

这段视频的文字稿讨论了关税对美国经济的潜在影响，尤其关注目前围绕关税的担忧是否合理。围绕“关税是否值得担忧”这个问题，发言者们提出了一个细致的视角，他们认为市场可能反应过度，但也承认潜在的负面后果。 一位发言者认为，市场对关税过于焦虑，他指出，无论是特朗普时代还是拜登时代的关税，在历史上都相对可控。他将此与中国的经验进行对比，中国在实施大量关税的同时，也实现了显著的经济增长和减贫。这表明关税虽然有影响，但并非必然有害。 他进一步阐述了美国制造业的空心化问题，指出过去几十年里，没有大学学位的主要年龄段男性劳动力参与率下降了10%。他将这种经济衰退与更广泛的社会问题（如芬太尼危机）联系起来，主张重振工业城市，为年轻人提供机会，并恢复他们的使命感。这种观点将关税视为重建国内制造业和解决社会问题的潜在工具。 他随后指出一个数据，表明迄今为止，美国关税已经带来了2640亿美元的收入，其中拜登政府负责1750亿美元，特朗普政府负责剩余的890亿美元。 对话随后转向关税对通货膨胀的影响。发言者们承认关税可能导致物价上涨，但也指出，之前的关税实施并不一定会导致通货膨胀，并且通货膨胀和价格水平是两个不同的概念。发言者指出，首次实施关税时，消费者物价指数CPI约为2%。他们认为，汇率影响、替代效应以及美联储的行动可以缓解任何通胀压力。他们认为，消费者对通货膨胀的焦虑可能受到自我实现的预言的影响，即对通货膨胀的信念实际上促成了它的发生。 一位发言者接着讨论了消费者信心。他指出，纽约联邦储备银行的数据比密歇根大学的调查更具政治性。纽约联邦储备银行一直显示出一些焦虑。 发言者将当前的经济形势与2018年特朗普政府最初实施关税时期进行了比较。当时，市场反应消极，但最终复苏。他认为，类似的情况可能正在发生，市场可能对围绕关税的不确定性反应过度。 他们提出了关于“美联储看跌期权”（the Fed Put）的具体观点，即如果股市大幅下跌，美联储将会介入以稳定经济。他们声称，美联储的任务是充分就业和价格稳定，股市下跌可能会触发美联储的回应，导致股市再次出现U型反转。他们建议等待“美联储看跌期权”成为现实后再进行投资。 总而言之，发言者们对关税提出了一个复杂的展望。他们提出了一种观点，即关税虽然会产生一些焦虑，但可能并不像某些人预期的那样具有灾难性。他们还指出了关税在振兴美国制造业和解决更广泛的社会经济挑战方面的潜在作用。他们告诫不要对市场波动反应过度，并建议密切关注美联储的回应。

This video transcript discusses the potential impact of tariffs on the American economy, particularly focusing on whether current anxieties surrounding them are justified. The speakers, addressing the question of whether tariffs are something to be worried about, present a nuanced perspective, arguing that the market might be overreacting, but also acknowledging potential negative consequences. One speaker argues that the market is too anxious about tariffs, pointing to the historical precedent of both Trump and Biden-era tariffs being relatively manageable. He contrasts this with China's experience, where substantial tariffs were implemented alongside significant economic growth and poverty reduction. This suggests that tariffs, while impactful, are not inherently detrimental. He further elaborates on the hollowing out of American manufacturing, citing a 10% drop in labor force participation among prime-age men without college degrees over the past few decades. He connects this economic decline to broader societal issues like the fentanyl crisis, advocating for a revitalization of industrial cities to provide opportunities for young men and restore a sense of purpose. This perspective frames tariffs as a potential tool for rebuilding domestic manufacturing and addressing social problems. He then points out a statistic noting that, to date, $264 Billion in revenue had been brought in, in US tariffs, with Biden being responsible for $175 Billion of this, while Trump was responsible for the remaining $89 Billion. The conversation then shifts to the inflationary impact of tariffs. While acknowledging the potential for higher prices, one of the speakers points out that previous tariff implementations did not necessarily lead to inflation, and that inflation and the level of prices are two distinct things. The first time tariffs were implemented, the speaker noted that CPI had reached around 2%. They argue that currency exchange impacts, substitution impacts, and actions from the Federal Reserve could mitigate any inflationary pressures. They suggest consumer anxiety regarding inflation may be influenced by a self-fulfilling prophecy, where the belief in inflation actually contributes to its occurrence. One speaker then discusses consumer confidence. He notes that the New York Fed's data is a bit more political than the Michigan survey. The New York Fed has been indicating a bit of anxiety. The speaker compares the current economic situation to 2018, during the Trump administration's initial tariff implementations. At that time, the market reacted negatively, but ultimately recovered. He argues that a similar playbook might be unfolding, with the market potentially overreacting to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs. They bring up a specific point about "the Fed Put", the idea that the Federal Reserve will step in to stabilize the economy if the stock market declines significantly. They assert that the Fed has a mandate for full employment and price stability, and that a market downturn would likely trigger a response from the Fed, leading to another U-turn in the stock market. They recommend waiting for this "Fed Put" to materialize before investing. In essence, the speakers provide a complex outlook on tariffs. They propose the perspective that tariffs, while generating some anxiety, might not be as disastrous as some anticipate. They also point out the potential role tariffs could play in revitalizing American manufacturing and addressing broader socio-economic challenges. They caution against overreacting to market fluctuations and suggest closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's response.