Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!

这段文字记录了一场关于美国经济以及现任政府解决挑战计划的广泛讨论，其中包含对财政部长斯科特·贝森特的采访。对话从贝森特的背景开始，追溯了他对金融的热情，这源于他父亲作为房地产开发商的经历以及他的早期职业生涯，后者受到吉姆·罗杰斯和斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒的影响，他们教会了他风险管理和宏观投资的重要性。贝森特强调了理解全球资本流动和央行行动在宏观交易中的重要性，这是他35年来磨练的技能。 一个关键时刻是被讨论的1992年货币危机，当时贝森特、德鲁肯米勒和索罗斯挑战了英格兰银行。该事件可以类比于当前的经济状况，贝森特强调某些政策的不可持续性。他解释说，由于他对拜登政府的赤字支出及其对中产阶级和收入最低的50%人群的潜在影响感到担忧，他才参与了特朗普的竞选活动。贝森特认为，现任政府的政策，无论是故意的还是无意的，都扩大了华尔街和普通民众之间的差距。 贝森特将“美国梦”定义为拥有住房、实现财务安全以及在工作中找到目标，但他指出，由于住房稀缺、成本上升和工资停滞等因素，实现这一梦想的道路变得越来越艰难。他批评了政府目前使用的数据，质疑其可靠性，并暗示政策通常基于那些能证明预先确定的行动是正确的的数据。 随后，对话转向了政府为应对经济挑战而制定的三管齐下的计划。第一步是通过控制支出削减和减少政府的过剩劳动力来降低联邦债务。第二步侧重于放松金融体系的监管，以刺激私营部门重新加杠杆，他将其描述为“监管紧身胸衣”。贝森特希望通过降低价格和提高工薪阶层的实际工资来解决可负担性危机。第三步涉及重塑国际贸易体系，并利用关税和激励措施鼓励制造业回流美国。政府的目标是保持低且可预测的税收，大幅削减法规，并确保获得廉价能源。 贝森特回应了对国家债务和不断增长的利息支付的担忧，并表示相信国会能够采取行动减少赤字。他强调了降低政府支出和放松金融体系监管的重要性。他强调需要通过观察贷款速度，尤其是在小型和区域银行中，来衡量放松监管的成功程度，并且还需要一个可预测的税法，以便企业能够蓬勃发展。 讨论深入探讨了美联储的角色，贝森特肯定了其在货币政策方面的自主权，同时也警告不要过度监管。他认为美联储对小型银行过于苛刻，并主张放宽资本要求。他还承认了用短期债务为赤字融资的错误，并讨论了解决这一问题的潜在措施。 贝森特强调了债务削减监督小组 (DOGE) 取得的进展，并强调了埃隆·马斯克和道格·伯古姆等商业领袖在识别成本削减和提高效率领域的专业知识。他提到了诸如调动政府拥有的资产（包括能源租赁和土地）等举措，并讨论了私有化，削减措施的重要性在于不影响公民或政府服务的质量，而是影响承包商，以及削减浪费、欺诈和滥用行为。 对话涉及社会保障以及将其转变为主权财富基金的可能性。贝森特还分享了特朗普政府处理国家安全问题的见解，提到了财政部在制裁和反洗钱工作中的作用。 最后，贝森特回顾了他在任职期间的经历，并将国家安全方面描述为他日常职责的重要组成部分。他分享了与特朗普总统互动的轶事，强调了他敏锐的记忆力和对美国人民的真诚关心。他最后重申了政府致力于解决可负担性问题，并为所有美国人创造更繁荣的未来的承诺。

This transcript captures a wide-ranging discussion about the US economy and the current administration's plans to address its challenges, featuring an interview with Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary. The conversation begins with Bessent's background, tracing his passion for finance back to his father's experiences as a real estate developer and his early career, influenced by Jim Rogers and Stan Druckenmiller, who taught him the importance of risk management and macro investing. Bessent highlights the importance of understanding global capital flows and central bank actions in macro trading, a skill he honed over 35 years. A pivotal moment discussed is the 1992 currency crisis where Bessent, Druckenmiller, and Soros challenged the Bank of England. This event serves as an analogy to current economic conditions, with Bessent emphasizing the unsustainability of certain policies. He explains that he became involved in the Trump campaign due to his alarm over the Biden administration's deficit spending and its potential impact on the middle class and the bottom 50% of wage earners. Bessent argues that the current administration's policies, both intentionally and inadvertently, have widened the gap between Wall Street and Main Street. Bessent articulates the "American dream" as owning a home, achieving financial security, and having purpose in one's work, but notes that the path to achieving this dream has become increasingly difficult due to factors such as housing scarcity, rising costs, and wage stagnation. He critiques the current data used by the government, questioning its reliability and suggesting that policies are often based on data that justifies predetermined actions. The conversation then shifts to the administration's three-pronged plan to address the economic challenges. The first leg involves reducing the federal debt through controlled spending cuts and shedding excess labor from the government. The second focuses on deregulating the financial system to stimulate private sector re-leveraging, which he describes as a “regulatory corset". Bessent hopes to address the affordability crisis by lowering prices and raising real wages for working people. The third leg involves reordering the international trading system and bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US, using tariffs and incentives to encourage onshoring. The administration aims to maintain low and predictable taxes, substantially slash regulations, and ensure access to cheap energy. Bessent addresses concerns about the national debt and the increasing interest payments, expressing confidence that Congress can act to reduce the deficit. He highlights the importance of deflating government spending and de-regulating the financial system. He emphasizes the need to measure the success of deregulation by observing lending velocity, particularly among small and regional banks, and also to have a predictable tax code so businesses can thrive. The discussion delves into the role of the Federal Reserve, with Bessent affirming its autonomy in monetary policy while cautioning against regulatory overreach. He believes the Fed has been too harsh on smaller banks and has advocated for easing capital requirements. He also acknowledges the mistake of financing deficits with short-term debt and discusses potential measures to address this. Bessent highlights the progress made with the Debt Reduction Oversight Group (DOGE), emphasizing the expertise of business leaders like Elon Musk and Doug Burgum in identifying areas for cost-cutting and increased efficiency. He mentions initiatives such as mobilizing government-owned assets, including energy leases and land, and discussing privatization, the importance of the cuts not affecting the citizen or the quality of government service, but rather the contractor, and the cutting of waste, fraud, and abuse. The conversation touches on Social Security and the possibility of turning it into a sovereign wealth fund. Bessent also shares insights into the Trump administration's approach to national security, mentioning the role of the Treasury in sanctions and anti-money laundering efforts. Finally, Bessent reflects on his experience in office, describing the national security aspects as a significant part of his daily responsibilities. He shares anecdotes about interactions with President Trump, emphasizing his sharp memory and genuine concern for the American people. He concludes by reiterating the administration's commitment to fixing affordability and creating a more prosperous future for all Americans.