33,500% RETURN - Mark Minervini's VCP Setup that made him Millions $$$
发布时间 2024-10-12 16:43:38 来源
这段文字记录了马克·米勒维尼（Mark Minervini）、马克·里奇二世（Mark Richie II，昵称 Marky）和布兰登·赫奇帕斯（Brandon Hedgepath）之间的讨论，他们都是经验丰富的交易员，隶属于 Minervini Private Access。他们分享了在交易中实现“超级业绩”的经验、见解和策略，重点关注心态、风险管理、仓位管理和卖出规则。对话从他们职业生涯早期的错误开始，布兰登和 Marky 回忆起他们最初的“风格漂移”，不断从一种策略跳到另一种策略，而没有精通任何一种。对他们来说，一个转折点是参加了马克·米勒维尼的大师交易员课程（Master Trader Program，MTP），该课程提供了一种一致且永不过时的市场方法。布兰登甚至卖掉了他的汽车来参加，这表明了他的决心。
马克·米勒维尼强调了个人责任的重要性，呼应了威廉·奥尼尔（William O'Neil）的观点，即亏损是由于市场或股票分析中遗漏了某些要素。马克还强调分析和标记图表以找到共同点。量化交易结果（平均收益、平均损失、胜率）对于理解交易背后的数学和风险至关重要。理想情况下，交易员应该追求 2:1 或更高的盈亏比。
心态在交易成功中起着至关重要的作用。马克强调了选择的力量、对自己的信念以及承担责任。学习和努力工作是必不可少的，但谦逊和向比你更懂行的人放弃你“认为”你所知道的东西也很重要。市场会暴露弱点，你需要管理它们。布兰登强调将交易收益与情绪分开。心态需要随着账户规模的增长而演变，从 1000 美元到数百万美元。基于百分比的方法对于避免与基于美元的损失产生情感纠缠非常重要。
这三位交易员还讨论了多个层面的风险：止损单、流动性、仓位规模和价差。目标是改善“最坏情况”，并创造不对称杠杆，即潜在的上涨空间远远超过下跌空间。
马克展示了两个交易案例：美光科技（Micron，MU）和 IBIT（比特币 ETF），展示了他们买入、趁势卖出和管理风险的过程。在美光科技的案例中，他展示了如何在低点反弹时买入，并增加了现有仓位。在比特币 ETF（IBIT）的案例中，马克多次交易该股票，一路上都获得了超额收益（alpha）。
一个关键点是理解股票的“行为方式”，识别作弊区域的重要性。
逐步建仓是一个重要的讨论概念，包括仓位规模和多元化。当他们的头寸表现良好，显示出吸引力，并且管理好最坏情况时，他们会增加敞口。马克和布兰登不一定会为了开设另一个头寸而平仓一个头寸。然而，关闭和开放的组合通常被使用。
然后，讨论转向 IBIT，包括“免费滚动”的概念，即交易员拿出部分初始利润（在交易朝着正确的方向发展后，最初的趁势卖出）以将风险转移到盈亏平衡点。
讨论强调了专注的重要性，小组不鼓励追逐每一个机会，并将你追踪的股票限制在少数几只。
最后的建议包括时间和继续投入时间的重要性，以及承认有效的方法。
马克·里奇补充了一条关键信息，即进行股票交易，至少一年内摆脱所有的指数和其他外部噪音。
这三位交易员一致强调了风险管理和管理风险以及机遇的重要性。风险应该是一种机遇。马克最后总结说，心态是最重要的。
The transcript features a discussion among Mark Minervini, Mark Richie II (Marky), and Brandon Hedgepath, all experienced traders affiliated with Minervini Private Access. They share their experiences, insights, and strategies on achieving "super performance" in trading, focusing on mindset, risk management, position management, and sell rules. The conversation begins with early career mistakes, with Brandon and Marky recounting their initial "style drift," jumping from one strategy to another without mastering any. A turning point for them was attending Mark Minervini's Master Trader Program (MTP), which provided a consistent, timeless approach to the market. Brandon even sold his car to attend, illustrating his commitment.
Mark Minervini emphasizes the importance of personal responsibility, echoing William O'Neil's sentiment that losses are due to missed elements in market or stock analysis. Mark also highlights analyzing and marking up charts to find common denominators. Quantifying trading results (average gain, average loss, win rate) is crucial for understanding the math behind trading and risk. Ideally, traders should aim for a 2:1 or better reward-to-risk ratio.
Mindset plays a crucial role in trading success. Mark emphasizes the power of choice, belief in oneself, and taking responsibility. Learning and hard work is essential, but humility and the ability to surrender what you "think" you know to someone who knows more is important. The market reveals weaknesses and you need to manage them. Brandon highlights separating trading gains from emotion. The mindset needs to evolve as account size grows, from $1,000 to millions. A percentage-based approach is important to avoid emotional entanglement with dollar-based losses.
The three traders also discuss risk on multiple levels: stop-loss orders, liquidity, position sizing, and spread. The goal is to improve the "worst case scenario" and create asymmetric leverage, where potential upside far exceeds downside.
Mark presents two trade examples: Micron (MU) and IBIT (Bitcoin ETF), showing their processes for buying, selling into strength, and managing risk. With Micron, he demonstrated how to buy coming off of the lows and added a larger position to his existing position. With Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), Mark traded the stock multiple times, capturing alpha along the way.
A key point is the importance of understanding how a stock "acts," identifying cheat area’s.
Progressive exposure is a key concept discussed, including position sizing and diversification. They increase exposure when their positions work well, are showing traction, and managing the worst-case scenarios. Mark and Brandon don't necessarily close one position to open another. However, a combination of closed and open is often used.
Then, the discussion turns to IBIT, including the concept of "free rolling," where the traders take a portion of the initial profit (the initial sell into strength after the trade moves in the right direction) to move the risk to break even.
The importance of focus is stressed, with the panel discouraging chasing every opportunity and limiting the stocks that you track to a handful.
Final advice included the importance of time and continuing to put in the time as well as acknowledging what worked.
Mark Ritchie was able to add a key piece of information, which was to trade, the stock and get rid of all the indexes and other outside noise for at least a year.
The three traders unanimously emphasized the importance of risk management and managing risk and the opportunities. Risk should be opportunity. Mark concluded by saying that the mindset is the most important thing of them all.
中英文字稿 
who now runs the intervening private access. He's also the author of Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard. How do you protect your money? Well, you stay away from the companies that can't grow those revenues and you go with the companies that are showing not only earnings but also strong revenue growth. It tightens up real nice here and holds its gains. Sets up a perfect look at. It's a perfect couple of handles, right, VCP, what I call it. Boom, comes out here. We're back in. We'll right back up. I think Yahoo's short term is definitely extended and it's ahead of itself. The internet is something that's very viable. It's going to be here for a long time, probably forever. If you lose on a trade, it's because you missed something. Either with a market, the stock, it wasn't set up properly. Something you missed because when you do it right, it works perfect.
他现在管理着私人访问的中介。他也是《像股市巫师一样交易》一书的作者。如何保护你的资金？你应该避免投资于那些营业收入无法增长的公司，而选择那些不仅有盈利而且收入增长强劲的公司。这里的走势非常稳固，并保持了涨幅，一切完美无瑕。就像一个完美的形态，我称之为VCP（波动、收敛、点破）。突然，它突破了。我们再次回到了之前的水平。我认为雅虎的短期表现确实已经过度扩张，有些超前了。互联网是非常有生命力的，它将长期存在，可能会永远存在。如果你在交易中亏损，那是因为你忽略了某些东西。可能是市场、股票设置得不够好或者其他方面的疏漏。当你操作正确时，它会运作得非常完美。
All right. Welcome back, everybody, to the Trade Align Conference. I'm very excited to welcome our next speakers joining us, our Mark Minervini. Mark Ricci II and Brandon Hedgepath. Mark Minervini, as many of you know, is a market wizard, author, foundational trading and mindset books, a two-time US investing champion and a 40-year veteran of Wall Street. He is also the founder of Minervini Private Access and the creator of the Master Trader Program Super Performance Workshop. Mark Ricci and Brandon are both experienced portfolio managers who teach through Minervini Private Access and they both attended the first Master Trader program back in 2010 with Mark and over the 13 and a half period working together, they achieved an outstanding, compounded total return of 5,667 percent.
好的。欢迎大家再次来到贸易对齐会议。我很高兴介绍我们的下一组发言嘉宾，他们是Mark Minervini、Mark Ricci II和Brandon Hedgepath。许多人都知道，Mark Minervini是市场奇才，也是多本基础交易和心态书籍的作者。他是两届美国投资冠军，拥有在华尔街长达40年的资历。此外，他还是Minervini Private Access的创始人，Master Trader Program超级表现工作坊的创建者。Mark Ricci和Brandon都是经验丰富的投资组合经理，负责通过Minervini Private Access进行教学。他们都在2010年参加了由Mark主持的第一届Master Trader Program。在共同合作的十三年半里，他们取得了高达5667%的惊人成交复利回报率。
And today, I'm really excited. We'll be discussing a wide range of topics based on your guys submitted questions and we'll be covering setups, trading mindset, position management, sell rules, progressive exposure and much more as well as covering a few of their key trades. Mark, Brandon and Mark, welcome. It's a real pleasure to have you guys here. Thanks for having us. Yeah, that's great. Great to be here and I'm really happy to be here with my team with Mark and Brandon. So I think everyone's going to get a chance to meet some really great traders that I respect more than anybody probably in the world, that probably the only two guys that I would trust my own money with. Yeah, perfect. As round as Richard, good to see you again. So it should be a lot of fun.
今天我真的很兴奋。我们将讨论很多话题，这些都是根据你们提交的问题来展开的。我们会涉及到交易设置、交易心态、仓位管理、卖出规则、逐步增加投资等内容，还会分享一些关键交易案例。Mark、Brandon 和 Mark，欢迎你们。很高兴你们能参加。真的很棒，很高兴能和我的团队——Mark 和 Brandon 一起来到这里。我认为大家将有机会认识一些我非常敬重的优秀交易员，可能是全球我最信任的人，是我唯一愿意把钱交给他们的两个人。太好了，Richard，很高兴再次见到你。这一定会很有趣。
Yeah, perfect. And yeah, I think it's excellent to get all your guys different perspectives and all your nuances that you guys will share. To start things off, I want to kind of bring it back to the very beginning of your trading careers. A lot of people watching maybe kind of just starting out a few years into this. Looking back at your early years of trading and Brandon, I'll kind of start with you on this one. What were some of the key mistakes that you found yourself making over and over again? And what were some of the key steps and improvements that you made to kind of correct those and work towards improving as a trader?
好的，完美。那么，我认为听到你们每个人不同的观点以及你们将要分享的细微差别真是太好了。为了开始这个话题，我想回到你们交易生涯的初期。许多观众可能刚刚起步或已经有几年的经验。回顾你们早期的交易岁月，布兰登，我想先从你开始，你发现自己反复犯过的关键错误有哪些？为了纠正这些错误并不断提高作为交易员的能力，你采取了哪些主要步骤和改进措施？
Sure. So a style drift, I would say was a key one. So I would, you know, I think I spent, I don't know, maybe $10,000 jumping from one strategy to the next, whether you first started with options, then it was selling options, right? So I was trading options on the long side. Then it was selling premium. I jumped to, I mean, I don't even remember, I traded Forex. I paid a guy $4,000 to teach me how to trade Forex that didn't pan out. And it was like every three months or so, you know, I'd have success and then I'd give it all back. And then I'd be like, all right, this isn't working. Or do I go to the next thing?
当然。风格漂移是一个关键因素。我曾在各个策略之间跳跃，可能花了大约一万美元。从一开始的期权，到后来卖出期权。我先是做多期权，然后开始卖出期权赚取权利金。我也涉足外汇交易，甚至花了四千美元请人教我怎么交易外汇，但最终没有成功。大概每隔三个月，我会有一些成功，但接着又失去所有的收益。我就会想，好吧，这不灵。我是不是该尝试下一个策略了？
And then there's over a two-year period before my Marky turned me on to what Mark Meinervini was starting. So, you know, I had a good, I don't know, two-year experience of screwing things up, put it that way. So, you know, this idea of I was always, you know, committed, but for some reason, I just had a sense like I was missing some pieces. Yeah. And was a little rich, just to point out Brandon calls Mark Richie, Marky and I'm Mark. There you go. That's a good point, Mark. Thank you for that. Yeah. So Mark, Mark Richie's Marky to me. So, well, that makes it easy to differentiate. So thank you.
然后，在我听说Mark Meinervini开始的事情之前，大约过了两年的时间。可以这么说，我有一段大约两年的时间在犯错。所以，你知道，我一直都很投入，但不知为何，我总觉得好像缺少了一些东西。哦，对了，Brandon把Mark Richie叫做Marky，我是Mark。这是个好提醒，谢谢你指出这一点。所以，对我来说，Mark Richie's昵称是Marky，这样就容易区分了，谢谢。
And I also want to kind of touch on for and hear from each of you guys kind of some aha moments. And it sounds like the Master Trader program for you, Brandon and Mark Richie, of course, or Marky. It was kind of one of those turning point moments. So would you guys kind of touch on, you know, what were the key takeaways from that experience that, you know, really set you on that path towards getting super performance and really improving as a trader?
我也想让每个人分享一下你们各自的“恍然大悟”时刻。听起来，对你们来说，Master Trader 课程是类似的转折点。所以，你们能否谈谈从那段经历中有哪些关键收获，把你们真正引向了更高的表现，并在交易方面大大提升呢？
Can I just give a little, a little setup here? Because it's really inspiring when you hear about Brandon in particular, Brandon, but Mark and Brandon together, what they've done. And Brandon came and Mark came to the very first Master, my first Master Trader program, I think there was 25 people in the room. It was simply an experiment at the time. I was for me to try my material that I was using to write my book and I wanted to see what would resonate with people and if it should go in the book or not.
我可以简单介绍一下背景吗？说到布兰登，尤其是布兰登，还有马克和布兰登一起做的事情，真的很鼓舞人心。布兰登和马克参加了我的第一个大师交易员计划，当时房间里大概有25个人。那时候这只是一场实验。我想测试我用来写书的材料，看看哪些内容会引起人们的共鸣，以及这些内容是否应该写进书里。
And so I said, let me do a seminar and we'll, you know, that will get to see, you know, people's visceral response and questions and that's how it all started. And now it's, you know, become, it's 15 years later, we're still doing it. But Brandon, at the time, couldn't afford to come to the Master Trader program. So he sold his car to pay for it, which you want to talk about commitment. He said he was committed. He certainly was committed.
于是我说，让我来办一个研讨会，这样我们就能看到人们最直接的反应和提问，这就是一切的开始。现在，已经过去15年了，我们仍然在继续做这个。但当时，布兰登因为无法支付大师交易员课程的费用，所以他卖掉了他的车来支付，这就是你所说的“承诺”。他当时表示，他非常投入，他的确是非常投入。
And they came, you know, with, and collectively they left and started trading as a team with, you know, a relatively small amount of money, 25 or 30, $40,000. And now they managed to get their own money over 20, 25 million, I think now they're in the tens of millions of dollars that they've grown it. So, and they were a customer of intervening private access for a decade where they traded on their own and it was after all that.
他们来了，然后一起离开，开始以团队的形式进行交易，他们开始的时候资金相对较少，大约25,000到30,000或40,000美元。现在他们设法将自己的资金增长到了2000万到2500万美元，我想现在他们已经发展到了数千万美元。因此，他们成为私募访问的客户已经有十年时间，在这个过程中他们一直自行交易，一切都是在这之后发生的。
And we, of course, over time became friends and so forth. And I was real proud of them. Then they started working for me and been with the company now for a good number of years. So it's just a great story. And I just wanted everybody to know what incredible dedication these guys are amazing.
当然，随着时间的推移，我们成了朋友等等。我为他们感到非常自豪。后来，他们开始为我工作，现在已经在公司待了很多年。这真是一个很棒的故事。我只是想让大家知道这些人的奉献精神有多么令人惊叹。
So, Mark, you want to, you want to lay the backdrop or you want me to? Sure. Well, the original question was, you know, mistakes and those types of things and just taking it back to there because, you know, a lot of people know, obviously, or maybe failure. My dad was a retired trader, but I never actually worked for him or did anything like that work for an old associate of his. That's actually how I met Brandon and really got off to a terrible start.
好的，马克，你想要铺垫一下背景，还是让我来？好的。原来的问题是关于错误之类的事情，我们就从那里开始回顾一下。很多人可能知道或者听说过失败的故事。我的父亲是一位退休的交易员，但我从未真正为他工作过，也没有在他手下干过。我是为他的一位老同事工作的，也正是通过这个机会我认识了布兰登，并且一开始就遇到了很大的挫折。
So even the idea of. It's in your blood or it's in the genetics or that it's really not the case. And, you know, even I think it was talking offline. Sean Ryan made the comment interview with you, Richard, the markets don't care who your dad is. Couldn't be more true. You know, there is no gene for trading in my view. But anyway, I didn't have a process. You know, I didn't. Discipline is something that, you know, it did come easy.
所以，即使有这样的想法，即“它在你的血液中”或“它在基因里”，其实并不是这样的。你知道，即便是在非公开交流中，肖恩·莱恩也在和你，理查德，谈话时评论道，市场并不在乎你爸爸是谁。这观点再正确不过了。依我看来，根本不存在所谓的交易基因。不过，话说回来，我当时没有一个明确的方法。你知道的，纪律这东西对我来说并不容易做到。
I don't say easy, but something that I understood that listen if you can apply a process or tactics and discipline that work. I just didn't have that. So you did what a lot of people did. You tried different things. And then, you know, fill in a little of the details. I had market just started doing a few things, even on stock twits and had a blog and then started the NPA thing and I told Brandon is like, look, I'm making money and just kind of learning.
我不会说这是简单的事情，但我明白如果你能应用一个有效的流程、策略和纪律，那一定会起作用。我之前没有这些。所以你和很多人做的一样，尝试了不同的方法。然后你知道，就开始丰富一些细节。我开始在市场上做一些事情，甚至在StockTwits上发帖，并开了一个博客，然后开始了NPA的事情。我告诉Brandon，就像这样，我在赚钱，并且不断学习。
Well, you know what this guy's doing, but he's doing sort of a. Yeah, this seminar. I'm. And, you know, very similar, I made a little bit of profits. I just took some of the profits and said I'm paying. I'm paying for a trip to, you know, Myrtle Beach to go figure out. You know, how, how he makes the sausage, if you will, you know, and to me, it was really more like I said, I think one of the biggest things I took away I still talk about this is this idea of not being in too big of a hurry.
好的，你知道这个家伙在干什么，他在举办一个类似的研讨会。我呢，也赚了一点钱，然后就拿出一部分利润来支付去默特尔海滩的旅行费用，想去搞清楚他是怎么“做香肠”的。对我来说，就像我说的，我从中学到的最大的一点就是不要太着急，至今我还在谈论这一点。
Where I felt like armed with the knowledge that we learned there and then, of course, you're going to workbook and all these things saying there's a real path forward. If you can continue to be disciplined and get good at this. You know, most people don't care what it what what the, you know, the discipline or the avenue is they don't spend enough time really getting good. They just want to be successful.
在那里我觉得自己掌握了我们所学到的知识，再加上练习册和其他资料的辅助，我意识到确实有一条可以走下去的路。只要你能够保持纪律性，并在这方面精益求精。大多数人并不在意具体的学科或途径是什么，他们并没有投入足够的时间去真正变得出色。他们只是想要成功。
One of the things Mark talks about is you get the skill first, then then the money and the success come later. And to me, I actually felt like, you know, that was really what the, the course provided was like this is a consistent approach to the market that is timeless. That that isn't just a one trip pony, you know, or is going to cut, you know, go in and out of vogue and then not work anymore.
马克常说的一件事是，你首先获得技能，然后金钱和成功才会随之而来。在我看来，这正是这门课程所提供的内容：一种对市场的持久方法。这不仅仅是某种一次性的技巧，或者一时流行后就过时无用的方法。
It was it was working before any of us were around it'll be that's this approach will be working long after we're dead and gone so it was this idea of, you know, for lack of a better word, this is the brass ring in as far as trading is concerned it's just going to require a consistent application and just want some hard work and it doesn't feel like that was 15 years ago but I can't believe that was actually almost 15 years ago in 2010. Yes, we just got put our heads down and did work it was actually years later when Mark was like, you know, you guys have done a really good job and Fran and I were like, we're, yeah, I guess so you know we're just, you know, again heads down trying to do the work. Good things.
在我们还没出现之前，这种方法就已经在发挥作用了。而且，即使我们都已死去，这个方法依然会继续有效。可以说，这是交易领域的“终极目标”。这需要持续的应用和努力，虽然感觉不像是15年前的事情，但实际上差不多是在2010年。当时，我们只是埋头苦干。几年后，马克才说：“你们干得很棒。”那时，我和弗兰觉得：“嗯，或许吧。”毕竟我们一直在埋头工作，坚持不懈地做好每一件事。
I gotta say something I gotta jump in because it just reminds you of certain moments we were all together one time and this is after these guys have been trading for like a, you know, a decade and a half and they've, you know, amassed tens of millions of dollars and I said to Brett you guys are, you know, massively successful and he said, you know, I'm just starting to feel like I'm successful.
我得说些话，我得插一句，因为这让我想起了我们曾经在一起的某些时刻。这是在这些人已经交易了大约十五年后，他们已经积累了数千万美元。我对布雷特说，你们真的非常成功了。他却说，我现在才开始感觉到自己成功。
So, yeah, I go out and the ability and the discipline and these guys are really purists, you know, and, and now we're seeing lots of, you know, we've got the US investing championship, you know, Norm Zader restarted a number of years ago I guess it's maybe six years now or so. Five, six years and we're just seeing, you know, our members dominate, you know, this last quarter we had all four divisions were our members so it's just these guys and all these people that are entering the contest are showing that it's teachable, you know, and I think O'Neill did the same thing, you know, and he'll had David Ryan and had leaf and had leaf resstone and it's duplicatable, it's teachable and these are principles that are timeless and there's going to be people long after us and these guys are the next generation and the people watching here are also the next generation.
所以，我会参加比赛，这些人真的很纯粹，他们有能力和自律。现在我们看到很多，比如美国投资大赛，诺姆·扎德尔几年前重启了，我想现在大概有五六年了。我们看到我们的会员在这个比赛中大放异彩，最近一个季度，我们所有四个组别的冠军都是我们的会员。这就说明这些人以及参赛者都在展示这是一项可以传授的技能。我认为奥尼尔也做了同样的事情，他有大卫·瑞安，还有其他人，证明这些原则是可以复制和教授的。这些原则是永恒的，未来还会有很多人继承，而这些参赛者就是新一代，而在观看的人也是新一代。
Yeah, and I love that like that that's one of the things that really stuck, stuck out to me, Mark, when the first time I met you because you did say that you said timeless principles and I really thought about that for a long time because I'm like, well, what does that mean? You know, and I think one of the things I always struggled with when I was bouncing around other places was I had so many unanswered questions and not that when I, you know, when we started doing the minervini style or approach that Mark was teaching at the time to us even going leading up to that seminar was, you know, he gave you everything you need that the process was there and I never saw that from the beginning of the day, I was like, I don't know if I was going to be able to do anything to me anywhere else.
是的，我真的很喜欢这一点，这也是让我印象深刻的原因之一。马克，当我第一次见到你时，你提到了“永恒的原则”，这让我思考了很长一段时间。我在想，这到底是什么意思呢？我过去在其他地方总是有很多未解答的问题。而当我们开始学习马克传授的Minervini风格或方法时，甚至在参加那个研讨会之前，他就已经给了我们所需的一切，整个过程都非常清晰，而这是我在其他地方从未遇到过的。
And it was like, I had this aha moment, like, holy cow, here is the holy grail and, you know, the risk management alone, you know, which is what we talk about is the holy grail. No one taught me that. I didn't stumble across that but that was something I knew in my mind I needed because I'd always ask these questions of like, well, how do I know when did not trade? Like was I trading too small was I trading too big, you know, it was like, I could never, I knew the market changed but I couldn't put my finger on it. Because clearly what I was doing wasn't working and when I when we went to that first, well leading up to that we actually mark, you know, we were subscribers to the platform under someone else's name actually.
翻译为中文：
我突然有了一个“啊哈”的时刻，心想，哇，这可是“圣杯”，你知道，仅仅是风险管理这部分，就已经是我们所说的“圣杯”了。没有人教过我这个，我也不是偶然发现的，但我心里知道我需要这个，因为我总是问自己类似这样的问题：我怎么知道什么时候不该交易？我是不是交易得太小或者太大？我总是觉得市场在变化，但我无法准确指出，因为显然我之前的方法并不起作用。在我们第一次接触到这个之前，其实我们在别人的名下订阅了这个平台的服务。
And we mark sidestep the flash crash in 2010 and we were like blown away. And so leading up to Mark and I, Marky and I actually had lunch and he's like, hey, I'm going to go to this thing. I think you should come. And I was like, I can't pay for that. And that's when I was like, well, I guess I could sell my car after thinking about it for a little bit. And so yeah, I did. I sold my car for I think $14,000. And I took the four paid for the seminar. And, you know, it's funny Bob Oyseman told me too that he, this might be the last one. So it was one and done. So I'm like, all right, well, there's no next to you.
我们在2010年的闪电崩盘中成功避险，让我们感到震惊。后来，我和马克聊到了这件事，马克对我说：“嘿，我打算去参加一个活动，我觉得你应该也来。”我当时回复：“我负担不起这个费用。”经过一番思考后，我意识到可以通过卖车来支付费用。于是，我把车卖了，大概卖了14,000美元。我用其中的4,000美元支付了研讨会的费用。很有趣的是，鲍勃·奥伊斯曼还告诉我，这可能是最后一次研讨会，所以就只有这一次机会。我心想，好吧，那就没有下一次了。
We truly believed we truly thought that we're just going to do it just to, you know, do an experiment to get data for the book to figure out, you know, what materials should go in the book. I wanted to make sure the book was good. But, but another thing too. I mean, it shows a great commitment, but the real commitment. I think this is a real, you know, we'll get to some of the tools and the important things that people want to hear of how they can be successful. And the real key is that we're 15 years later. And these guys have been doing the same thing. I've been doing the same thing for 40 years. They've been doing it for 15 and I'll assure you 15 years from now they'll be doing the same thing. And they'll be able to say what I'm saying now, and sticking to that strategy and becoming really good at it.
我们最初真的相信并认为，这只是一次实验，只是为了获取编写书籍所需的数据，弄清楚书中应该包含哪些材料。我想确保这本书是优秀的。但是，还有另一件事。这显示了很大的投入，我认为这是真正的承诺。接下来我们会谈到一些工具和人们想知道的重要内容，帮助他们取得成功。而真正的关键是，15年过去了，这些人一直都在做同样的事情。我自己已经做了40年，而他们已经坚持了15年。我可以保证，再过15年，他们还会继续这样做。他们将能够说出我现在所说的话，继续坚持这个策略，并在这方面变得非常出色。
And it's not just my strategy. This bar strategy is not the only strategy that works. There's other strategies. There's people do an option spreads and value buying and all kinds of things and day trading. But whatever strategy it is, you need to make a commitment to it more than a year or two. And you got to think in five, ten year increments as opposed to one or two. So that's the real key. That's the real. And with me, I didn't do well for six years. I didn't make any money for six years. I mean, these guys got you guys will quicker to get, you know, to do well. Well, and to be honest, I mean, we struggled to.
这不仅仅是我的策略。这个酒吧策略并不是唯一有效的策略，还有其他策略。有人通过期权价差、价值投资等方法获利，还有日内交易。但无论是哪种策略，你都需要坚持一年或两年以上。你需要从5年、10年的角度去思考，而不是一年或两年。这才是真正关键的。我当时在前六年都没有达到理想成绩，也没赚什么钱。你们可能会更快地取得好的成绩。老实说，我们一开始也很困难。
I mean, there was some periods where Mark and I, you know, I mean, listen, if we weren't taking the approach that, hey, what did we learn versus how much money we made. You know, we really valued of taking the wisdom that we gained from the market versus, okay, well, we didn't make what we wanted. So we should just quit or what. So, you know, Mark's key to on like, you're going to have rotten days, right? And if you take that approach, and I think a lot of people don't understand six years is a long time to not give up and not make money. Yeah, it felt like a long time.
我的意思是，我和马克经历了一些时期，你知道吗，我的意思是，听我说，如果我们当时没有采取那种“嘿，我们学到了什么”这样的态度，而是只关注赚了多少钱，那情况可能会很不一样。我们真的很重视从市场中获得的经验，而不是单纯看我们是不是赚到了想赚的钱。马克总是提醒我们，会有糟糕的日子，对吧？如果你采取这样的态度，我认为很多人不理解，在长达六年的时间里不放弃并且没有赚到钱，是多么不容易。是的，这感觉像是很长的一段时间。
Hey, Rich, I'm just going to let you know that the three of us could rattle on for all. I'll jump in. I'll try to get to like people's. Sorry. No, no, that actually leads me right back to the question I want to ask you now, Mark, about those six years where you struggled. And you mentioned in your book, the realization you made when you looked at your data and you calculated if you capture loss, I think it was at 10% that you would have been up, I think multiple double digits, maybe 80% versus being down.
嘿，Rich，我只是想告诉你，我们三个人都可能会一直聊下去。我会加入讨论，尽量去了解大家的想法。抱歉。哦，不，这实际上让我回到了我想问你的问题，Mark，关于你那六年的奋斗经历。你在书中提到，当你查看自己的数据并计算损失时，如果你能将损失控制在10%以内，你的收益可能会增长多倍，甚至可能达到80%，而不是亏损。
Was that the key moment for you where everything changed and, um, and what kind of specific changes did you make going forward to get on that path towards profitability and, of course, the performance. There's been a lot of aha moments and that was the main one that I realized that the law, cutting the losses and what O'Neill was saying was even more important than I had understood and that I didn't really understand risk management very well.
那是让你一切发生变化的关键时刻吗？那么，在那之后你具体做出了哪些改变，以帮助你走上盈利和提高表现的道路呢？有许多“顿悟”的瞬间，但那次是让我意识到最关键的，我明白了停止亏损和O'Neill所说的，比我之前理解的重要得多，同时我也意识到自己并不真正了解如何进行风险管理。
And I went from I had a 15% loss. I normalized everything to a 10% stop. And my account would have been up 72% and I said, wait a minute, that has to be wrong. I obviously did a calculation wrong. I calculated it again. Came back the same. I calculated it the third time. Low and behold, it was correct. So then I went and I said, well, let me look at survivorship bias and see if you know, would have knocked me out of some of the winners and, you know, there's got to be something here that it's wrong. It wasn't even with accounting for all of that. It was still right around that same number.
我经历了从亏损15%到一切调整为10%的止损。当时我发现我的账户本应上涨72%。我心想，这一定有问题，我肯定算错了。于是我重新计算了一遍，结果还是一样。然后我又算了第三次，结果发现确实是对的。于是我就去研究幸存者偏差，我想看看这是否会让我错失一些赢家。我以为这里面一定哪里有问题。结果即便考虑了这一切，数字还是差不多。
So that was on that day. I'll never forget it. I said to myself, never, ever again. Am I allowing a loss to balloon. I'm cutting the line in the sand. And that's it. A loss unless it was going to have to gap through and I'm taking the next best price after that. But I'm never ever holding a loss. I'm not going to have to go to the hard fast rule that I'm making and I'm sticking to it. And they're going to have to take if they're taking me out, they're taking me out by little death by 1000 cuts.
那就是在那一天发生的事情。我永远不会忘记。我对自己说，再也不会允许损失扩大了。我画了一条界限，这就是底线。损失如果发生，就必须立即止损，我会接受接下来的最佳价格。但我再也不会死守亏损了。我制定了这个铁律，并严格遵守。如果要让我承受损失，那只能是通过细微但接二连三的小损失来让我退出。
I'm never getting taken out by a big loss ever again because I was every now and then I have a stock blow up. I'd fall in love with a stock and I buy more of it when it's down and it just I just kept distorting my returns and any little progress that I made would just get destroyed. Everything changed from that point forward. It was just amazing. I just I started getting consistent returns my drawdowns and I just started perfecting the risk management and before you know it, I went into the 90s.
我再也不会因为一次重大损失而陷入困境，因为过去我时不时会遇到股票突然大跌的情况。我常常对某只股票情有独钟，当股价下跌时就买进更多，结果却只是不断扭曲我的回报率，任何一点点进展都会被彻底毁掉。从那时起，一切都变了，非常神奇。我开始获得稳定的回报，减少损失，并逐渐完善风险管理。不知不觉间，我走入了90年代。
I had that stretch that people read about in market wizards 36,000% in five and a half years and you could do the math regardless if you start with $2,000 or $10,000. It turns into a lot of money. You know, and that was the beginning of a career. So yeah. And what are your goals right now for risk management in terms of, you know, average stop. I know you track your numbers quite diligently and and Marky and and Brandon. I like to hear your perspectives as well with what you guys like but but starting with Mark. What are your goals right now in terms of capping your losses and keeping very strict risk.
我曾经有过那段被写进《市场巫师》里的辉煌时刻，在五年半的时间里收益率达到了36,000%。无论你是从2,000美元还是10,000美元起步，结果都会变成一笔巨款。这是我职业生涯的开始。那么，现在你们在风险管理方面的目标是什么，比如平均止损。我知道你对自己的数据跟踪得非常认真。我也想听听Mark和Brandon你们的看法，尤其是Mark，你现在在限制亏损和严格控制风险方面的目标是什么？
So we all work together and we actually at minimum private access. We have a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a mini event or any select trade portfolio that we managed as a team. And then we have our open positions where we put breakout stocks and all that. So you'll see that in real time and are and also manage our own money as well. And these guys, if you looked and I don't know what they're doing with their own money, they don't know what I'm doing with my own money. We don't really talk about that much. But if you, if we go back and we look at their, their losses, my, they're about the same, you know, we're averaging anywhere between if we're really tight.
所以我们大家一起合作，而且我们的最低限度是提供私人访问。我们有一个小型活动或精选交易投资组合，由我们团队管理。此外，我们还有公开持仓，其中包含突破型股票等内容。你可以实时看到这些，我们也同时管理自己的资金。虽然我们并不常谈论个人资金操作，但如果你查看他们的损失记录，你会发现和我的差不多。我们在保持谨慎的情况下，通常收益在一个范围内波动。
You know, 3% 3.5, 4% in a, in a market that's not very good. We might be 5, 6% averaging 4, 5%, 6% line in the sand that at 8%. But we stagger stop sometimes. So we'll put like a 4 and a 12. Usually it's not even 12. Usually it's a 10 is the max. And we might use, you know, a staggered stop. And from there, you will still average that 8%. That 8% is a number that goes back to O'Neill. And it's a, it's a number. It's a very important number for a few reasons. Number one, if you just do the math, once you start going over 10%, the math starts working against you because losses work geometrically against you.
在不太好的市场中，3%、3.5%、4%的表现算不错了。我们可能达到5%、6%，平均在4%、5%、6%左右，但在8%的时候，我们会设定一个明确的止损线。有时候，我们会用阶梯式止损。因此，我们可能设定一个在4%和一个在12%。通常设置会不是12%，而是10%为最高点。通过使用阶梯式止损，你仍然可以平均维持在8%左右。8%这个数字源于O'Neill，它是个很重要的数字。第一个原因是，简单计算一下，超过10%后，数学对你不利，因为损失会以几何级数增长，对你不利。
So now, you know, you're down 20% takes 25% to get even you down 50%. It takes 100%. Right. Everybody knows this. Well, 8% is about 8% to get even. And also, when you look at charts and you go back and you go all the way back to the 1800s, we looked at charts. I've looked at millions of charts, literally millions of charts. And we've got the research and O'Neill had the research and love had the research and you go back to all of the Jesse Livermore. When you look at these charts, you don't need more than that.
所以，你知道的，当你亏损20%，需要上涨25%才能回本；亏损50%时，需要上涨100%才能回本，对吧？这个大家都知道。不过，当亏损8%时，需要上涨大约8%才能回本。而且，当你查看图表并回溯到19世纪的时候，我们查看过很多图表，我个人查看过数百万张图表。我们有研究，O'Neill也有，Love也有，这些研究可以追溯到Jesse Livermore时代。当你看这些图表时，那就足够了。
Like that, if you back into these, the way charts fluctuate and stocks fluctuate, if you know how to enter properly, well, then this, it will be abnormal. If you start getting 10, 15% moves, that's abnormal fluctuation and you'll know it. So it's just, that's what's necessary. And that's what mathematically works. Yeah, perfect. Brandon, mark anything to add there.
像这样，如果你了解图表和股票的波动规律，并且知道如何正确入场，那么这种情况就会显得不太正常。如果开始出现10%或15%的波动，那就是异常波动，你会知道的。所以，这就是必要的，也是数学上可行的方式。好的，非常好。Brandon，你还有什么要补充的吗？
Yeah, I'll just add, obviously, in terms of the risk management where we're all cut from the same cloth and that regard and look, the tighter, the better Richard is generally when people are going like, well, how tight do you like to be? Well, it depends on the setup. But the one thing I will just add, and we were Mark was talking about post trade analysis. And that process, though, is something that no one can do for you. But if you faithfully do it, where Mark was saying, I had this, ha ha, where I was like, all right, I am drawing the the the marginal line in the sand.
好的，我来翻译一下：是的，我只想补充一点，显然在风险管理方面，我们大家都有相似的背景。关于这一点，我觉得越严格越好。当别人问你喜欢多紧密时，其实还是要看具体情况的。但我想补充的是，马克之前提到的交易后分析，这个过程是没人能替你完成的。不过，如果你认真地去做，就像马克说的，他有个“哈哈”的时刻，决定在某个点划下界限。
Like I've never frosting it again. I, you know, I had a similar experience on the on the upside, you know, five or six decent years and I'd gone to my third and fourth fifth master trader program came back and did a big study of all my biggest winning trades. And actually found out that they were in the same groups that Mark had written about in his books that I feel had written about that. I was like, my own results were bearing out that like, I should be, if anything, more aggressive.
就像我再也不想为它加糖霜一样。你知道，我有过类似的经历，在好的方面，经历了五六年的丰厚回报。我参加了第三、第四和第五次大师交易员项目，回来后对我所有最大获利的交易进行了深入研究。结果发现这些交易实际上与马克在他的书中写的类别相同，我感到自己也写过。我的结果表明，我应该，更激进一些。
What did all my biggest winners have in common. They had earnings or sales, or they were part of some of the classic growth areas minus the biotech. And so I just said, I'm not going to play favorites but if that's where I've made all the money. And then going into the next cycle was I think was 2016 17 we did something like 200% in the next 18 months. Armed with that information. And this is where, again, one of the things, you know, we, we learned and we teach is that process of grading yourself going through studying your results.
我所有的最大赢家有什么共同点？他们要么是有收益或销售额，要么属于一些经典的增长领域（除了生物科技）。所以我说，我不搞偏好，这就是我赚钱的地方。接下来进入下一个周期，好像是在2016到2017年，在接下来的18个月里我们取得了大约200%的增长。在掌握了这些信息后，我们学到的一件事情，就是在这个过程中，通过研究自己的结果来评估自己。
That is one of your best teachers. Let me just say two two points one is the, the, the results bearing out the research as, as Mark just said that that's what happened with me too. As I started getting the results, it was, it was confirming the O'Neill research research I was confirming the Richard love book it was confirming Jesse Livermore was confirming all these people who I had concluded were on to timeless principles that that principles that will work forever because it's a love's loss applying to man is like gravity, you know, it's not going to change.
那是你最好的老师之一。我想说两点：第一，正如马克刚才所说，研究结果证实了这一点，这也发生在我身上。当我开始取得成果时，这些成果证实了O'Neill的研究，也证实了Richard Love的书，还证实了Jesse Livermore的理论。我确信这些人都掌握了永恒的原则，这些原则就像重力一样，永远适用于人类，不会改变。
So here's and you asked about the ha ha moments there's there's there's two, there's two more. And the one and this is what I something I've said many times that I learned from O'Neill O'Neill was a man of personal responsibility. I mean, he really was and I met him a bunch of times. And he said some things that were just so enormous that just lasted for the rest of my life and one thing he said was, look, if you lose on a trade, it's because you missed something. All right, either with the market, the stock, it wasn't set up properly, something you missed because when you do it right, it works perfect. And when the market conditions are right. That's, that might sound obvious. That's a big statement. That's a big statement. And that means that, you know, there, this, there is a certain time to do this and there's a certain time not to. And it's up to you to learn and get the skill to be able to do that and you're not going to be perfect.
所以，这里你问到那些"哈哈时刻"，实际上有两个。我曾多次提到我从奥尼尔那里学到的东西。奥尼尔是一个非常注重个人责任的人，我和他见过多次面。他说过一些非常深刻的话，对我影响至今。其中一句是：看看，如果在交易中亏损，那是因为你遗漏了某些东西。要么是对市场、股票了解不够，或者准备不充分，总之是因为你有遗漏。因为当你做对的时候，一切都运作得很完美，尤其是在市场条件合适的时候。这听起来可能显而易见，但这其实是个重要的观点。这意味着，做事情有合适的时机，也有不适合的时机，而学习和掌握这种技能是你的责任，你不可能总是完美无缺。
You're not going to be perfect. So then not only you have to get that skill to do it well. But when it's not working and things aren't going well, you have to have a mechanism to mitigate the downside, right? So what I did is I just listened to David Ryan. I went just like these guys came to my seminar and David Ryan actually became his of my instructor for eight years at the Master Trader program. I went and saw David Ryan when I was a young kid and I saw O'Neill. I saw David Ryan. David Ryan said, you know, just take a green pen and a red pen and mark where you bought and sold on a chart. And that's your best teacher. And that was the big aha moment. I reckon. And I still, it's funny because originally the mistake that I found that I was making very often, besides holding losses, I corrected that. But then I was selling too soon. I was constantly selling stocks way too soon.
你不可能做到完美。所以不仅需要掌握技能以做好事情，当事情不顺利时，还需要有机制来减轻负面影响。我听了David Ryan的建议。这就像有些人来参加我的研讨会，而David Ryan也是我在“高手交易员”课程中八年的导师。我年轻时见过David Ryan和O'Neill。David Ryan告诉我，只需要用一支绿色的笔和一支红色的笔在图表上标记出你买入和卖出的地方，这就是你最好的老师。这是个让我恍然大悟的时刻。我发现我经常犯的一个错误是除了持有亏损之外，我纠正了这个错误后，却又总是卖得太早，我总是过早地卖掉股票。
And I'm still doing it to this day. Fortunately, I selling them too soon. I still make enough where it pays for the risk. And I've been able to build a fortune off of that. But I wouldn't go over and video and I sold and video both times too soon. Just these last couple trades bought it as perfectly as you can possibly buy it. And both times sold it too soon. But so yeah, doing that post analysis and you will find common denominators, things that you do over and over good and bad. So you'll see these are my strengths. You'll see your weaknesses. And when you start to see something, you're doing over and over and over. Now, that's what really tells you what you need to work on and what you need to exploit. And how often would you guys suggest for traders watching this to do post analysis and what would be kind of the key steps?
译文如下：
我到今天仍然在这么做。好在我总是卖得太早，但我仍然赚到了足够的钱来抵消风险，我也因此积累了一笔财富。但是，我不会彻底反思之前的交易，比如之前两次我卖出了N视频也都是太早。而最近几次交易，我买入的时机非常完美，但每次还是卖得太早。所以，进行交易后的分析是很重要的，你会发现一些反复出现的共同点，不论是优点还是缺点。这样你就能看到自己的长处和短板。当你开始注意到自己反复做同样的事情时，这就真正告诉你需要在哪些方面改进和在哪些方面加以利用。对于观看这个视频的交易者来说，你们会建议多长时间做一次交易后的分析？关键步骤有哪些？
There's there's calculating your numbers. And then there's as you mentioned, going over the charts and the trades and marking them up. What would be kind of your your guidance there. That's a great. That's a great question. The way you partitioned into two things where it's the numbers and it's the charts and the traits. And they're two completely different things. One is the math. And I'll let you guys talk about it too Brandon and Mark, you know, they don't do any differently than I do where we do it the exact same way. But looking at the charts, there's a couple of general rules of thumb. One is I find it's best to look at it later to let some time go by months go by when you do that. When you go back, it's kind of like I'm grading your trades, Rich. You know, like you start to look at them as objectively and not emotionally you're away from the trade you kind of forget about it.
在中文中，这是对原文的意思进行简化表达：
"计算你的数字是一回事，正如你提到的，还有一部分是查看图表和交易并对其进行标记。这两个是完全不同的东西，一个是数学方面的，我会让你们，也就是布兰登和马克来讨论一下这个，我们的方法完全一样。但是在看图表方面，有一些通用的建议。我发现最好是过一段时间再看，让几个月过去再回头看。当你这样做时，就像是在对你的交易进行打分。你开始以客观而非情感的方式来看待这些交易，因为你已经远离了这些交易，也差不多忘记了它们。"
And then you can really honestly identify and you could be more objective about it. With the numbers, the math is the math and the math. This is the thing I think that people have a hard time with is bringing the two together. I always say, let the spreadsheet wait, make its way into your trading. So you got to be cognizant of your numbers. And then you know where your average loss is your average gain and you see the math. Well, this math isn't working. You know, my losses are bigger than my gain. Obviously, you don't have to be a rocket scientist figure out. You're going to lose money. Right. So you've got it. You got to get that math right. But then you've got to back into trades and back into the risk into the charts that that that math works. And that's where that's the hard part.
然后你可以真正地、诚实地识别问题，并且可以更客观地看待它。用数字来说，数学就是数学。这是我认为人们很难做到的一点：将这两者结合起来。我总是说，要让电子表格融入到你的交易当中。所以你必须清楚地了解你的数字。这样你就知道你的平均亏损和平均收益在哪里，然后你会看到数学计算的结果。如果这个数学不奏效，比如说你的亏损大于收益，显然，即使不是火箭科学家也能明白，你会亏钱。所以你必须把这些数学搞对。但随后你还必须把交易和风险融入到符合这个数学的图表中，而这才是难点所在。
That's why I'll leave that up to you to explain Mark and Brandon. Go ahead, Brandon. Oh, you want me to jump in here. All right. So yeah, so that's, that's what I did. You know, in the early days was three months and six months, I would always review the trades. And I think for me, you know, before Mark and I officially formed our partnership. We would trade in the same office, but my tracers, you know, those are sometimes different than his. So, yeah, I want, I was always selling too soon. So, you know, I was very risk adverse to the point where as I was choking everything off. So to me, the math making sense with, you know, how the chart, you know, where I want to be the last week holder, meaning when the charts hours, that's when it matches with my, you know, our percent stop that makes mathematical sense.
这就是为什么我会让你来向Mark和Brandon解释这一点。好了，Brandon，你来吧。哦，你希望我在这里插话。好的。那么，这就是我所做的。在早期，我会在三个月和六个月时定期回顾交易。我认为，在我和Mark正式合作之前，我们会在同一个办公室进行交易，但我的交易方式有时与他的不同。我总是过早地出售，因为我对风险非常敏感，甚至到了限制一切的地步。对我来说，数学意义上的合理性就是在图表符合我的期望时，比如在价格到达我们的止损百分比时。我希望自己是最后的持有者，这样的数学计算才合理。
You know, typically for us, you know, we run our win rates a little bit lower because our average loss is like what? We're going to be doing it every percent. So we, we don't have a problem taking, you know, stepping aside quickly, but we'll also look to get back in quickly. So for me that, that aha moment or, you know, using doing the hard work because it is hard work. You know, seeing how well you've, you know, played versus in your mind how well you think you did is two different things. Yeah. Yeah. For me, the, the, you know, just understanding that I don't want to stop out something that's not doing anything wrong without the idea of like, okay, well, if I do, I got to get right back in.
你知道，通常来说，我们的胜率会稍微低一点，因为我们的平均损失率是怎样的？我们会在每一个百分比中进行调整。因此，我们对于快速退出并没有问题，同时我们也会迅速寻找重新进入的机会。对我来说，那种“顿悟”时刻或者说投入努力工作的过程，因为这确实是艰苦的工作，是很重要的。看到自己实际的表现和心里认为的表现之间是存在差距的，是两回事。对我而言，要理解的是我不想轻易退出那些没有出错的操作，除非有明确的想法，比如，如果我这样做了，我就要马上重新进入。
If it starts to go in the direction I wanted it to. Yeah. And that's where we learned. That's where in my book, I talk about confirmations of violations. So if you're breathing in trade like a champion, you'll basically what Brandon's referring to are violations, you know, if there's no violations, then you want to stick with the trade. But go ahead Mark. I'm sorry. I was just going to say, I'm not going to add a whole lot of color other than just, I can remember though, it was, I think at the very first seminar on Mark called it knowing the truth about your trading, which is what he refers to in his book too. And, and he said, you know, how many of you are tracking your trades here and it was like, I think our two or the only two hands that went up. I was like, I couldn't believe the number of people that weren't doing this.
如果开始朝着我想要的方向发展，嗯。这也是我们学习的地方。在我的书中，我谈到违反的确认。所以如果你在像冠军一样进行交易，那么布兰登提到的是违规情况。也就是说，如果没有违规，那么你应该坚持这笔交易。不过，继续吧，马克。对不起，我只是想说，我不会添加太多细节，只记得在第一次研讨会上，马克称之为“了解你交易的真相”，他也在他的书中提到了这一点。他问道：“你们中有多少人在追踪自己的交易？”似乎只有我们两个人举手，我简直不敢相信有那么多人没有这样做。
But because it really is an exercise in seeing your own look, it's the way you look at yourself in the mirror in terms of the numbers don't lie, but I would, I would agree. I think you. We try and log them right away and then come back to grade them later. So, yeah, I have to tell ourselves and then come back and grade them. I have seminars, you know, I have 400, 400, 500 people in the audience to say, how many people right now raise a hand raise your hand? How many people know your average gain average loss percentage of winning trades. Biggest loss smallest smallest, biggest win biggest loss. Raise your hand. Yeah, five percent of the room, 10 percent of the room, the hands go up, you know, and that includes the people that are lying.
因为这实际上是一个审视自我形象的练习，就像你在镜子里看到自己一样，从数字上看，它们是不会骗人的，但我同意。我认为我们应该尽量及时记录这些数据，然后再回来进行评估。所以，是的，我们必须对自己诚实，然后才能回来评估它们。在我的讲座中，有时听众有四百甚至五百人。我会问，有谁知道自己平均收益、平均损失、获胜交易的百分比、最大损失、最小损失、最大盈利的？请举手。结果只有大约5%到10%的人举手，其中还包括那些虚报的人。
So, and I say, I'm going to fall on you. So you better, if you raise your hand, I'm going to, I might ask for your numbers. One time one guy raises hand, I said, okay, what are your numbers? And he's a, a, a, a, a okay, you don't know. So, but yeah, it's very few people, you know, do the math and actually know the numbers. So my question always is, well, how do you know where to cut your loss if you don't know your gain. If you don't know, like, how do you know the math behind it? If you don't know what's going on in your trading, well, how would you know how to manage your risk against what. So knowing the truth is the very first thing, drilling down to the truth of your trading. And that's for most, that's painful, you know, and it's even painful to look at the, you know, we have some really great tools on my platform on the NPA platform for analytics.
所以，我要告诉你们，我会直接指出你们的问题。如果你举手问问题，我可能会要求你给出一些数据。有一次，一个家伙举手，我说，好的，你的数据是多少？结果他回答得支支吾吾的，说不出。他不知道。其实，很少有人真正计算后知道这些数据。所以，我总会问一个问题：如果你不知道你的收益，那你怎么知道该在哪儿止损呢？如果你不了解其中的数学原理，不知道交易中发生了什么事，又怎么能对风险进行有效管理呢？了解事实真相是第一步，深入了解自己的交易情况。这对大多数人来说并不容易，有时甚至很痛苦。我们在NPA平台上有一些非常出色的分析工具可以帮助你。
We have where you can put your trades in, it gives you breaks down all numbers, it gives you these bell curves and so forth proprietary stuff. We've got a greater where you can grade your trades. Surprisingly, a lot of people don't use it. They don't, they don't use it way less people than I would think and should. It's not the, it's not the most favorite part of the platform and it that's the part that is the most important. To add to that, if, if for instance you do your calculations and your average gain is around 10%. Where would using that information, where would you say, all right, given that average gain, where should I cut my risk now? Are you shooting for two to one, three to one?
我们有一个可以输入交易的平台，它可以为你详细分解所有数字，提供这些分布图和其他专有内容。我们还有一个功能，可以对你的交易进行评分。令人惊讶的是，很多人并没有使用它。我以为会有更多的人使用，但实际上很少人使用。这不是平台上最受欢迎的部分，但这是最重要的部分。再者，比如说你计算出的平均收益大约是10%。基于这个信息，你会在哪里决定减少风险？你的目标是2:1还是3:1的风险回报率？
It definitely depends whether you're more of a swing trader and turning things over faster versus more of a position trader. But I'd love to hear your guys thoughts with that and maybe start with Mark Minervini. Well, we were shooting for a minimum of two to one. We'd like to have, you know, the gains cover the losses by two to one. That gives you some room, you know, to be wrong. Three to one to five to one is, you know, where I'd like to be on my, on my better trades on the, on the bigger winners. And sometimes you get, you get eight or 10 to one, you know, eight or 10 or 12 hour trades. But on average, this is the thing that people have to understand. It's all about what happens on average. It doesn't matter what individual trade, what one individual trade does. It matters about what you do on average.
这确实取决于你是更倾向于快速交易的波段交易者，还是更注重长期持有的头寸交易者。不过，我很想听听你们的看法，也许可以从Mark Minervini开始。我们的目标是至少要达到两倍的收益比，也就是说盈利要至少是亏损的两倍，这样可以有一些犯错的空间。在更好的交易和更大的盈利中，我希望能达到三倍到五倍的收益比。有时，你可能会达到八到十倍，甚至十二倍的收益。但最重要的是要理解平均结果，这才是关键。关键不在于某一笔具体交易的结果，而在于你整体的平均表现。
When it all comes down to it, it's going to be your average gain divided by your average loss times your batting average. And that's it. That's the Holy Grail. Manage that. Keep that a positive number. And, and you're a winner. The bigger that number is, the less trading you have to do. So if it's 1.1 to one, and you're making a dollar 10 for every dollar you risk, you're going to have to do a lot of trades. You have to turn that over. If it's three to one, you're not going to have to do a whole lot of trades, and you're going to be able to be wrong a lot more. So that's the balancing act that you, you know, that you play, and that is going to depend.
当一切归结到最后，关键在于把你的平均收益除以你的平均损失，再乘以你的成功率。这就是秘诀。管理好这个指标，保持它为正数，你就是赢家。这个数字越大，你需要进行的交易就越少。如果比例是1.1比1，即每冒险1美元就赚取1.10美元，你就需要进行很多交易才能获利。如果比例是3比1，你不需要进行太多交易，即使犯错的次数较多也无妨。这就是你需要把握的平衡，这也会因情况而异。
If you're, if you're a day trader, you could have a 1.1 to one reward to risk. And you're going to turn that edge over. I mean, I have, I have a couple friends that are day traders, very successful. And one of my friends, he does in one day, sometimes 5,000 trades. I mean, can you even, I, it's almost unimaginable how that is possible with the amount of time that's in a day, but I've seen it with my own two eyes. You know, thousands of trades in one day. So think about that, turning that edge over. Even if you're making, you know, a dollar, 1 dollar and 1 cent versus what you're risking. If you did it 5,000 times a day, that can add up.
如果你是一个日内交易者，你可能会有1.1:1的收益风险比。然后你将不断利用这个优势。我有几个非常成功的朋友是日内交易者。其中一个朋友有时一天能进行5000笔交易。这几乎难以想象，因为一天里的时间有限，但我亲眼见过，确实一天之内能进行成千上万的交易。所以想想看，不断利用这个小优势。即使每笔交易只赚1美元又1美分，如果一天做5000次，累积起来也是一笔不小的数目。
And one thing that I've struggled with, especially, you know, say you do it quarterly and looking back at a trade that was a few months ago, is it's a little bit tough. Of course, you can add an index to the chart, but it's a little tough to know the context surrounding that trade, because we all know that if it's a semi trade and, you know, it starts pulling in, you know, it's still above the moving averages. But all the other semis that are also maybe in your portfolio are pulling back in the same time, you know, putting pressure on your equity curve, that type of thing. So my question is for you guys, how do you take into account the context of a trade to identify maybe those hidden mistakes that you're making selling something too early. Just because everything's pulling in when the chart is still not broken and still, you know, fine overall.
我一直以来都在努力解决一个问题，特别是当你每季度回顾过去几个月的交易时，这是有点困难的。当然，你可以在图表上添加一个指数，但要了解那笔交易的背景还是有点困难。因为我们都知道，如果这是一个半导体的交易，而它开始回落时，尽管它仍然在移动平均线上方，但如果你的投资组合中其他半导体股同时也在回落，这可能就会对你的权益曲线造成压力。所以，我想问的是，你们如何考虑交易的背景，以识别那些隐藏的错误，比如因为市场整体回落而过早卖出某些股票，而实际上图表还没出现明显的破坏，总体上还是不错的。
And maybe I'll start with Brandon on this one. Oh, you want to start with me on this? Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Well, that's a tough question, because, you know, listen, we always want to try to expand that average gain as well. So it's like, you know, you could be a strict two to one trader. That's fine. And your goal is to turn that over as much as possible. What Mark and I learned, though, is we got some really good stocks that we sold up 10% that we should have held for 2030. Right. So it's like, you got to, again, this is going back to the post trade analysis to understand how to understand the price.
也许我可以让Brandon先来谈谈这个问题。哦，你想让我先说吗？好吧。这确实是个很难的问题，因为，我们总是想尽量扩大平均收益。也就是说，你可以是一个严格遵循2:1策略的交易者，这没问题，你的目标就是尽可能多地进行交易。但Mark和我学到的是，我们卖掉一些上涨了10%的优质股票后发现，我们本该持有这些股票至20%或30%的涨幅。所以，你必须再次回到交易后的分析中去，以更好地理解价格走势。
So understand how a stock fluctuates. Right. So if you get 10% and you haven't even sat through a first natural reaction, maybe you don't want to sell yet. Or maybe you just sell a smaller piece, right? And then you want to hold for a bigger move. And that's typically what we try to do. You know, again, I think, Richard, the idea of like, what is the market? What's the environment? Right. So we do stock tactics feedback, right? What's the feedback from the market? So it's important. But if you're just coming out of a bear market, you know, you know that, or you don't know, but you're thinking, you're thinking should be, I want to hold maybe a few of these if they have the earnings and it's coming out of the right pattern for a bigger move.
理解股票的波动是很重要的。对吧？假如你已经赚了10%，但还没有经历过一次自然反应的循环，也许你不应该急着卖掉。或者，你可以选择只卖掉一小部分，然后持有剩下的股票，等待更大的涨幅。这通常是我们试图做的事情。 理查德，我认为关键的问题是，市场是什么？当前的环境是什么？所以我们会进行股票策略反馈，对吧？市场给出的反馈很重要。但如果你正从熊市中走出来，你可能不知道，但你的想法应该是，如果有合适的盈利和正确的模式，我想可能会持有一些股票，以便在更大的涨幅中获利。
So, yeah, we always it's this again is something, in my opinion, is hard to have a good answer for because each stock is kind of unique in its own. So, like, this is where we talk about, hey, give us an example. Right. And this is where Marx from the MTP, the, the, the trading book that he gives us, which is a model book, is so valuable. And I will still to this day, Marky and I both will review these charts if we have if we're just not doing anything and I have one on my desk from the first one. And I'll just flip through it because I want to see how just the natural flow of a stock X and we want to maximize, obviously, the most gain we can in the shortest amount of time. And that's something that stood out for me, whether that mark taught us originally to, but you're either have a 60% gain that took a year, you know, 10 or six 10% gains they actually compound and equals more than 60% that happens all the time.
所以，是的，我觉得这个问题确实很难有一个好的答案，因为每只股票都有自己独特的特性。比如，我们经常会讨论，给我们一个例子吧。在这里，马克斯在他的交易书中提供的模型书就非常有价值。即使到现在，马克和我都会在闲暇时翻看这些股票图表。我桌上就有一本，从最初的版本开始，我会不停地翻阅，因为我想观察股票自然的走势变化。显然，我们都希望在最短的时间内获得最大的收益。让我印象深刻的是，不管马克最初是怎么教我们的，你可能会在一年中有60%的收益，或者获得十个6%的收益，这样其实会超过60%的总收益。这种情况是常见的。
So, yeah, real quick too, you asked about context and I'll mark if you have anything to share too, but you asked about context to learn and I don't generally worry too much about like if another stock in the group unless it's a key stock and it has a major break. You know, Nvidia, you know, has a major break and has the biggest down day since the last five years and the biggest down week on the largest volume. And that's it, that's what we call the acts the acts in the group. So, but I tend to stay stock by stock right but here's the real key. Are you in a bull or bear market, right? Are you in the early stages of a bull market or the late stages of a bull market? What kind of traction are you getting in your own trading so now if I'm in the early stages of a bull market we have we've had a bear market right and now all of a sudden. Stocks are breaking out and we're coming off the lows and this is the first sign of stocks breaking out of really great high RS names are coming on a basis.
所以，嗯，我快速回答一下你的问题。你问到关于学习的背景信息，我会标记是否有信息可以分享。具体来说，你提到学习背景的时候，我一般不会太过担心同一组里的其他股票，除非它们是关键股票并且有重大波动。例如，如果英伟达出现重大下跌，比如说自过去五年来最大的单日跌幅和单周跌幅而且交易量也最大，那么我们称之为该组的关键个股事件。但通常我倾向于逐个股票分析。而关键在于：你身处牛市还是熊市呢？是在牛市的早期阶段还是晚期阶段？你在交易中获得了什么样的经验和成效？如果我处在牛市早期阶段，我们之前经历过熊市，现在股票突然间开始突破，我们从低点反弹，这是股票首次突破的信号，尤其是优秀的高相对强势股票开始形成良好的基础。
Well, I might have, I might have a monster by the tail, you might have Nvidia Amazon at the beginning of a big move. You even if you keep a tiny position you sell 90% of it and you keep 10% you could it could be life changing. So, at that point now I have a different tactic right I'm going to maybe even though I might short term trade some interest. I'm going to finance my risk and I'll play the rest for a big move and you some of these stocks go up thousands of percent they're even closed below their 50 day moving average, let alone the 200 day. So you could you start back stopping on now now let's say we're in a late stage we've been in a bull market for two and a half three years. Stocks are coming off then the groups are coming off their fourth fifth stage base and you're running up that that's a gift. Those are gifts that you have to take sell right into.
好吧，我可能抓住了一只"怪物"的尾巴，就像抓住了英伟达或亚马逊在大涨初期一样。即使你只保留一小部分仓位，卖掉90%并保留10%，这也可能带来生活 改变。所以，现在我有不同的策略。我可能会进行一些短线交易来增加兴趣，但我主要是为大涨做好准备。因为有些股票可以上涨成千上万倍，甚至连跌破50日均线都很少出现，更别提200日均线了。
假设我们现在处于牛市的后期阶段，已经持续了两年半到三年。股票开始回落，然后行业群体也回落到第四或第五阶段的基础上，然后再上涨，这是一个机会。这样的机会就像礼物，你需要抓住机会及时卖出。
And now I'm short term trading, you know I'm and I'm getting shorter and shorter and shorter as the bull market gets older and older and older. That's really the key and the traction is the real important part with Mark Brandon I wear everything that guides us and whether we get aggressive or not is all based on it is our own trades working. Doesn't matter the whole world can be doing well if our trades aren't working we're not increasing size. It's pure gold right there. Yeah, Mark Richie did you have anything to add on this. You don't think I would just add back to your original question was because you had asked about you know hey what if I sold the stock for other reasons or things like that I would just put it I would just put that in your notes or you know our greater now with this annotations where you can say you know hey maybe I was getting stopped and so I just reduced overall risk.
现在我进行短期交易。随着牛市越来越久，我的交易周期越来越短。这才是真正的关键。而交易的成功与否对于我们团队来说是极其重要的，不管整个市场多么繁荣，如果我们的交易没有成功，我们就不会加大投资力度。就像黄金一样珍贵。马克·里奇，你有补充吗？你想说点什么吗？我只想回应你最初的问题，比如你可能会因为其他原因卖掉股票。在这种情况下，我建议你把这些信息记在你的交易记录或者做标注上，比如写上“当时我因为止损而减少了整体风险”。
But generally when we're grading stuff we're just looking at the chart. Like in a vacuum even to Mark's point about you want to be in your own little echo chamber in terms of your own trading that's what you should be hearing you know how how are how are I tactics working right here right now in the market. And that should be the only thing really driving am I getting more or less aggressive. The same thing though like that trade has to stand on its own. So yeah I may have you know I look I got stopped on a few other positions I was raising a little bit of cash so I sold this one a little early I might make a note for that but that still doesn't mean it was a proper sell on that chart. Right. That stock was acting really well I might I might rate that as an early sell or a bad sell I'm still going to be honest in terms of how I do the grading of each one trade on its own.
一般来说，当我们在评估时，主要是看图表。就像马克提到的，你要在自己的小环境中进行交易，这样你才能真正听到自己在市场上战术的发挥情况。这应该是唯一影响你是更积极还是更保守的因素。不过同样重要的是，每笔交易都得独立判断。所以，即使我可能在其他位置上止损，增加了一点现金流，提前卖出了这个股票，我可能会为此记录下来，但这并不代表在图表上这是一个恰当的卖出决定。对吧？如果这个股票表现很好，我可能会把这个评为提前卖出或不当卖出，但我在评估每一笔交易时仍然会保持诚实。
Yeah perfect I think that's what I was looking for and to rewatching you know some of this might seem theoretical but we're going to actually jump to some trades in just a minute. I'm going to have a few questions on mindset first where everything hopefully will come together. Yeah and very little of what we say is theoretical I mean it is it is practical we use it in real life but you're right Richard will sound theoretical it does it can sound theoretical yeah.
好的，我想这正是我想要的。再看一遍，你知道，有些内容可能看起来有点理论化，但我们马上会实际操作一些交易。我会先问几个关于心态的问题，希望一切都会融会贯通。是的，我们说的东西其实很少是理论化的，它们都是很实用的，我们在现实生活中用得上。不过你说得对，Richard，听起来确实很理论化。
Just to start with Mark for you. What are some kind of mindset shifts that traders can make to unlock the belief that they can achieve super performance and be very successful is there something that you've noticed over time either teaching many many traders at your workshops as well as through MPA. To me the human superpower is choice you know it's the power of choice and the power of making the choice to believe and to believe in yourself you know the way I looked at it was and again it sounds corny but I you know when I was a kid I watched the movie Rocky and there's a part in there where they say you know he's great.
为了给你做个开始，马克，你认为交易者可以做出哪些心态转变来解锁他们的信念，让他们相信自己能取得卓越的表现并获得巨大成功？在你的很多研讨会及通过MPA教学中，有没有发现一些可以帮助交易者的心态转变？对我来说，人类的超级力量就是选择的力量，也就是选择相信和自信的力量。虽然听起来有些老套，但我从小就看了电影《洛奇》，里面有一个部分提到“他很伟大”，这对我的想法产生了影响。
And then his cornerman says he's just a man just you know be more man and I started thinking about it and I said you know when I was going to see O'Neill and these guys I said these are just men you know he's just people just like me if they did it I could do it too if I learn you know and so I took that personal responsibility. One of the things I got from O'Neill was that personal responsibility I mean also Dr. Wayne Dyer who I was a people know I'm a huge fan of it was like my life coach he passed away unfortunately but there's someone who I spent a lot of time with and and and study in his work with the people who I was a person.
然后他的场边教练对他说，他只是一个普通人，你知道，要更有男子气概。我开始思考这个问题，我说，当我去看奥尼尔和那些家伙的时候，我就想，他们也只是普通人，就和我一样。他们能做到的事情，我也能做到，只要我学习。所以我承担起个人责任。我从奥尼尔那里学到的一件事就是这种个人责任感。我也是Dr. Wayne Dyer的忠实粉丝，他就像是我的人生导师，虽然他不幸去世了，但我花了很多时间和他一起学习他的作品。
He was all about taking really you know 100% personal responsibility and saying that you know I can do this because someone else did it the four minute mile you know after they broke the four minute mile the whole bunch of people broke the four minute mile that's the way it works right. That's why we do this is to inspire that's why I write books is to inspire others you know when I see these guys went in the US investing championship and I had a little to do with it. It makes me way more happier than me winning it to be honest with you and why we wouldn't have you know 30 years ago but now it does.
他一直强调要承担完全的个人责任，并认为自己能成功是因为别人已经做到了，像四分钟一英里的纪录一样。当有人突破这个纪录后，很快就有一大批人也能做到，这就是事情发展的方式，对吧？这就是我们这样做的原因，就是为了激励他人。我写书也是为了激励别人。当我看到那些人在美国投资锦标赛中获胜时，我心里感到非常开心，因为我觉得自己对他们的成功有一点贡献。说实话，这让我比自己获胜还要开心。这在30年前可能不是这样，但现在确实如此。
So, yeah you know the mindset has to be where you need to be open minded to number one that if you're not doing well you probably suck at it and that and you're going to suck at it because you don't know shit. You know you're going to be in the bottom line all right and you don't know shit for five or 10 years and you got to realize that that's the way it is and find somebody who knows what they're doing shut up listen and make a commitment to something you know make it you can't go to a coach.
所以，你知道，心态应该是开放的。首先，如果你做得不好，可能是因为你还不太擅长。这并不奇怪，因为你对这件事情不熟悉。你可能在最初的五到十年都处于起步阶段，对很多东西都不了解。你需要接受这一点，并找到一个知道自己在做什么的人，认真听从他们的建议，然后全心投入到某件事情上。你不能只依靠教练。
And give it a half ass effort for a couple months and then go to another coach there's no magic coach you've got it. There's coaches that coach different ways and you know some coach with a lot of positive motivation some coach like Bobby Knight screaming yell and you know there's different ways right so but you got to make a commitment to that coach you got to make commitment to a style. And you know the commitment where you spend a lot of time not being very good at it and working and working and working and I think that's the mindset is that I think that's my strength is my unconditional persistence.
给它一点时间，花上几个月的时间，然后去找另一个教练。没有“神奇教练”这一说法。教练有不同的风格，有些喜欢积极的激励，有些像鲍比·奈特那样大喊大叫。风格虽然各异，但你需要对一个教练做出承诺，适应一种风格。这种承诺意味着，你要在一段时间内不怕自己不够优秀，持续努力、不断练习。我认为这种心态很重要，我的优势就是我持之以恒的毅力。
These guys I know again I don't know why if I had anything to do with convincing them to stay with something for 15 years straight and doing it over and over and a lot of other people too that have followed in my footsteps. And so Neil did a great job of convincing me that this was the way to go and that if it doesn't work it's because of me not because of the style of the strategy. And that was the key the key was convincing myself that it wasn't it wasn't the strategy it was me.
这些我认识的人，我也不知道为什么，是不是因为我对他们有过什么影响，让他们坚持做一件事情长达15年，并且重复地去做。还有很多其他的人也跟随着我的做法。所以，尼尔非常成功地让我相信，这就是该走的路，并且如果不成功，那是我的问题，而不是策略的错。而关键在于让我相信，问题不在于策略，而在于我自己。
I think that's the ultimate mindset is the is the responsibility. So you won the 100% challenge after 2010 attending the MTP. Was there a mindset unlock that you made there or kind of a realization what kind of led to that you know shift in performance there. Well I was just you know again armed with all the things that we're talking about you know and the idea of you know we talk about this one preparedness meets opportunity.
我认为那是一种终极思维模式，那就是责任感。那么，你在2010年参加MTP之后完成了100%的挑战。在那里你的思维模式发生了什么转变吗？或者是什么让你的表现有了那种变化呢？其实，我当时只是又一次准备好并掌握了我们一直在讨论的所有事情，这就像是做好准备去迎接机会的那种想法。
That that is essentially what what what we do in this business in my opinion is just making sure you're prepared for for those good periods in the market. And you know there's so many that you know we're all complicated individuals right and some people's we all struggle with different things. And so the reality is the market has a way of you know exposing our weaknesses and through a number of the things we just talked about post trade analysis you're never going to perfectly remove those things the keys you but you can manage them.
在我看来，这基本上就是我们在这个行业中所做的事情：确保你为市场的良好时期做好准备。我们每个人都很复杂，对不同的事情都有各自的挑战。现实是，市场有一种方式可以揭示我们的弱点，而通过我们刚刚讨论的一些交易后分析，你不可能完全消除这些弱点，但你可以管理它们。
And and even the idea of you know whether it's holding losses selling too quickly style drift. You know as getting over those kinds of things and realizing to all the way back to this isn't a business about you know i've got to be right. My goal is to make money if your goal was real and you have to. You know it's very humbling even mark those like to have we have people now complimenting branch and I go and you guys are. You know helping us change our lives or whatever and that means a lot to me because. I was broke when I came to the first massive trader program so I know that feels like to try and figure this out where you know okay I didn't work at a investment bank or a big hedge fund or anything like that.
翻译成中文：
甚至是关于你知道的，无论是持有亏损还是过早卖出，或者风格偏移。重要的是要克服这些问题，并意识到这不是一个关于"我必须是对的"的生意。我的目标是赚钱，如果你的目标是真实的，你就必须做到这一点。即使是那些获得了认可的人，也会感到谦卑。我们现在有很多人称赞我们，认为我们在帮助他们改变生活，这对我来说意义重大。因为当我第一次参加大型交易员项目时，我一无所有，我知道想要弄懂这一切的感受，而我没有在投资银行或大型对冲基金工作过。
And to be able to go from you know very barely getting by to being quite successful is humbling but yeah I would just say I think it's once you start to realize. You know, I've seen this and I've seen this okay okay there's a setup here and it's working and I can do this repeatedly. Or is I remember Mark first saying like the best sign is there going to be more set up than you have money to buy I have that like written in the little margin my very first master trader program that was probably my first. Ah ha and then I remember seeing with I was maybe a month later two months later I can't remember it was like holy cow there's just these setups like they're everywhere.
翻译：能够从勉强度日到取得相当的成功，这种经历让我感到很谦卑。我想说的是，一旦你开始意识到这些事，你就知道了。我看到了这个，我看到了那个，好吧，好吧，这里有个机会，它奏效了，而且我可以反复做到。我记得马克第一次说，最好的迹象是会有比你有钱购买的机会还要多。我把这句话写在我第一个高级交易课程的书页边上，那可能是我第一次茅塞顿开。然后我记得，也许是一个月后，也可能是两个月后，我看到的情况是，哇，这些交易机会无处不在。
You know I remember saying that to Brandon and it was like I was just buying every one of them so aggressively and it was the again using that whole progressive exposure though I was at new highest things are working and it was like when you made a ton of money in a very short period of time with what seemed very low risk. There's silent gold there by the way there's a there's you know because right now right now we're in a situation and you heard you heard what Mark said. A lot of setups right but you also heard him say they're working. So right now just last week I just did my weekend report and it was how there was a lot of setups last week lots and lots of stocks were on our focus list.
我记得我曾对布兰登说过类似的话，当时我几乎是很积极地购买它们，而且通过不断增加的曝光度，事情进展顺利。就好像你在短时间内以看似低风险的方式赚了很多钱。顺便说一下，这其中有潜在的巨大价值。因为现在我们正处于一个特殊的情况，你也听到了马克说了什么。他提到有很多投资机会，且这些机会正在奏效。所以就在上周，我完成了每周报告，发现上周有很多很多的股票进入了我们的关注列表。
There's a lot of reversals didn't the cues obviously they went to they went tag that high and reversed if you take a look even the equally weighted cues tried to break out of a base had a big reversal. So but a lot of stocks are were failing. So yes the setups are the setups there and are they working those are our two gauges if they're setups and if they're working and if they're not working even if there's lots of setups we're not going to get aggressive until they actually produce results. And then we'd start you know progressively exposing which I know I'm sure we're going to get into the rest of exposure because that's that's the most popular question that we ever get is the progressive exposure.
很多股票出现了反转现象。明显地，一些股票曾经达到高点，然后出现反转。如果你观察一下，即使是等权重的股票也尝试突破一个基底，但也出现了明显的反转。因此，虽然有许多交易机会在眼前，但很多股票并没有如预期那样表现良好。因此，我们会查看两个指标：是否存在机会，以及这些机会是否有效。如果这些机会并没有效果，即使有很多潜在交易机会，我们也不会激进进场，直到这些机会真正产生结果。之后，我们才会逐步增加投资。我知道，这是我们常被问到的一个热门话题：如何逐步增加投资。
Yeah. And Brandon before we move on was there anything else you want to add mindset wise about you know key things that that unlocked a belief in yourself that allowed you to push past what you thought you were able to do and really get stronger performance. Yeah so what's that saying feelings are great servants but terrible masters is something that comes to mind that's something that I think we all have to battle you know some of us are better at it than other but it's like anything the more you practice and build that muscle the better you're going to be where your feelings.
好的。在我们继续之前，布兰登，你还有没有什么想要补充的内容，特别是在心态上？有哪些关键点帮助你打破了原有的自我认知，让你超越了自己的想象，实现更强的表现？是的，有一句话让我印象深刻：情感是很好的仆人，但却是糟糕的主人。我认为我们都必须面对这个问题，有些人处理得更好，但这就像其他任何事情一样：你练习得越多，这方面的能力就会越强，能够更好地管理自己的情感。
And when you know mark you know laid the ground where you know he was just another iteration from one ear right and now he's passing this on to us and it's just like said some point you have to surrender you know what you think you know to the guy that knows more than you and focus on what he says is the process and refining the process who cares about the results and that once you do that and that's exactly what I had to do and what Mark and I you know have done that that has led to our successes.
当你了解马克时，你会发现他已经为我们奠定了基础。最开始，他也只是一个普通人，只不过经过不断尝试和实践，他现在把这些经验传递给我们。有时候，你必须放下自己以为理解的东西，去倾听更有经验的人的建议。专注于他们所说的过程，并不断完善这个过程，而不是过于关注结果。一旦你这样做，就会发现，这正是我和马克所做的，正是这种做法让我们取得了成功。
And we don't wave it from it. Yeah and I've done that's what I did I had a surrender to I had a kid off of my own opinions and I had a surrender and quite frankly to one of the reasons why you know Brandon has a place with my heart for his dedication is because I was broke too. When I first started I was broke beyond broke I mean I grew up in a family that you know my parents got divorced and my mother I said listen to her cry at night because we didn't have money for food.
我们从不动摇。是的，我所做的就是我曾经放弃过我自己的意见，说实话，其中一个原因就是布兰登在我心中占据了位置，因为他的奉献精神让我感动，因为我也曾经一无所有。当我刚开始的时候，我真的是穷得一塌糊涂。我成长在一个父母离婚的家庭里，记得夜晚听到母亲因没有钱买食物而哭泣。
So I came from a incredible poverty so to be you know it was I had to get over a poverty mentality which was very hard to even accept even when I started doing well I had to pinch myself and go watch this really happening here. But yeah so there's you know that that's look. I know everybody wants tools and they want to know what moving average you use and but really read my mindset book because that book is life changing. You know my I read my own book it may sound nuts but I read my own mindset book over and over just to keep that stuff in my head and I wrote the damn book.
我曾经非常贫穷，所以，即使当我开始过得不错时，我也很难接受这种事实，总是要提醒自己这真的是在发生。但是呢，我知道大家都想知道一些具体的工具，比如你使用的移动平均线。但是实际上，更重要的是读一下我写的心态书，因为那本书真的可以改变生活。听起来可能有些疯狂，但我反复阅读自己写的心态书，就是为了让那些理念一直留在我脑海中，即便是我自己写的书。
But but it's it's a great it's just a great book and it's really the most important elements. It's the most important part of the whole equation of becoming a great trader or becoming a great anything. And I'll just add one more thing you know when I first when Mark and I first started we're trading so small. You know a few hundred dollars was a big deal to us. Now you know we have a million dollar months and it doesn't matter. Like it's not about the money it's about the process. And that's really like when you get to that point that's when you know like okay you have something you've worked has paid off and I think Mark helped Mark Meantarvini helped us realize that. I started off when I first started in the 80s I made my first trade in 1983. And my goal as a trader. The my long term the big goal like if I would say this would be successful was to make 500 bucks a week. That was my that was my original goal.
但是但是这本书真的很棒，它确实是最重要的元素。它是成为优秀交易员或任何领域高手的整个方程式中最重要的部分。我再补充一点，你知道的，当我和马克刚开始时，我们的交易金额很小。几百美元对我们来说就已经是大事了。但现在，你知道的，我们每个月可以赚到百万美元，这已经不重要了。关键不在于钱，而在于这个过程。而当你达到这个境界时，你就会明白，好的，你所付出的努力已经得到了回报。我觉得马克·米南塔维尼帮助我们意识到了这一点。我是在80年代开始的，1983年进行了我的第一次交易。作为一个交易员，我的目标，我的长期目标，如果说这样算成功的话，我的目标就是每周赚500美元。这是我最初的目标。
Yeah. I went from $500 a week to tens of millions and that takes a mindset shift because man and you guys are perfect to speak to this because I know some people you should have this problem you should have the problem where you start off with $10,000 it becomes a whole. And then it becomes a million and then it becomes 10 million. You should have the problem of saying oh you know it's a lot harder now to mentally deal with taking a $50,000 loss as opposed to a $500 loss. And if you get to that point believe me you're going to hit a serious wall. It's it's and this is why a lot of people don't become really rich from trading. They can't elevate to that level. It's the same thing as if you're playing little league baseball and then you play high school and now you go to the major league. It's a whole different story. It's a whole different game. Right. So once you start moving up but you so that mindset's got to grow and and that belief in yourself. It's it's really it's really key.
是的，我从每周500美元的收入变成赚到数千万，这需要一种思维方式的转变。因为，当你开始从1万美元起步，它会变成一个整体，然后变成一百万，再到一千万。你应该有这样的烦恼：意识到要应对5万美元的亏损比应对500美元的亏损要困难得多。当你达到那个水平时，相信我，你会遇到一个严重的瓶颈。这就是为什么很多人通过交易无法变得非常富有。因为他们无法达到那种境界。这就像从打小联盟棒球到上高中，再到进入大联盟，完全是不同的故事，不同的游戏。所以，一旦你开始向上攀升，你的心态必须得到提升，对自己的信念也非常关键。
It's it's more important than the strategy strategies at least important because there's lots of strategies that you're going to have to commit to something. Yeah, I think that was I saw a few people ask that question where what's different between trading a $1,000 account $10,000 account $100,000 account a million dollar account and what kind of adjustments you have to make along the way. But I think you answered that but was there anything else you wanted to add on that front or technically nothing is different mentally everything's different. You guys need to speak to that in particular because you're closer to that than me. I got that was that was like two, two, three decades ago for me to jump that hurdle. So you're closer to that you've jumped that hurdle more recently.
这段话的大意是这样的：策略是重要的，但不是最重要的，最重要的是做出承诺，因为有很多策略可供选择。有人问过如何在交易不同金额的账户（比如1000美元、1万美元、10万美元甚至100万美元）时进行调整。虽然从技术上来说，没有什么区别，但从心理上来说，差别是很大的。因为你们最近才跨过这个心理关口，所以在这方面你们的体会可能更深刻。对我来说，这是二三十年前的事了。
Sure. And listen, there's definitely a mentality shift, but this is where I think, you know, when Brandon talked about where the process is the same. I don't know if anybody's seen that where yes, there are some mentality and a few shifts but it's still the same process. You know liquidity obviously changes, you know how aggressive it can be in certain situations. You know, may change, but this is why I still like the idea and I always encourage people don't don't keep track of your losses and dollars do it in percentage. So if you lost 3% on, you know, a thousand dollar position or a million dollar position still 3%. And it removes some of that emotional impact from things, but this is also where I think growing into these things is a much better way of doing it. You know, rather than, you know, just starting, you know, too large, if you will, and it's, it's so ironic, you know, when you read a lot of these success stories, most people started off with humble beginnings, at least.
当然可以。听着，心态确实会有转变，但这也是我认为布兰登所说的过程没有变的原因。我不知道有没有人注意到，虽然心态和一些方面有所改变，但过程还是一样的。流动性的变化显然会影响某些情况下的进取程度。这就是为什么我依然喜欢这个理念，并始终鼓励大家不要用亏损的金额来评估，而是用百分比。如果你在一个一千美元或一百万美元的头寸上亏了3%，它仍然是3%。这样可以减少一些情绪上的影响。这也是为什么我觉得在这些事情上逐步成长是更好的方法，而不是从一开始就贪大求全。读到很多成功故事时，这种讽刺就显得尤为明显，因为大多数人至少都是从谦卑的开端开始的。
In terms of you read the market wizards and those types of things. I think there's a reason for that. You know, usually you don't hear this though, I came into the market with 100 million and ran into a billion. It's usually no, I came into the market with very little figurates and things out and then, you know, was able to really continue to grow. So, I don't know, Brandon, you can add anything to the whole. I mean, yeah, there's not much to add there. You know, I can, you know, this is where for obviously for marketing, we had each other to talk to. So, you know, when we did whatever feel like as we grew in our drawdowns, you know, you look at the dollars, even though the percentages were fine. It was like, okay, why does this feel worse than it is, right?
在阅读《市场奇才》这类书籍时，我觉得这其中有一定原因。通常情况下，你不会听到有人说自己带着1亿美元进入市场，然后赚到了10亿。相反，常见的故事是，有人以很少的资金进入市场，逐渐摸索并不断成长。我不确定，Brandon，你可以补充些什么。其实，从营销的角度来说，我们有彼此可以讨论。所以，当我们在成长的过程中遇到回撤时，即使百分比看起来不错，但看到实际的金额时，会想：为什么这感觉比实际情况更糟呢？
And actually a lot of the time it was just because of trading period, you know, it's not the, it's not the loss of money. It's more or less the duration of being in a drawdown. Sometimes that is harder than, you know, the actual drawdown, the percentage decline itself. Because you want to get out of it, you want to claw your way out of it. So, you know, again, this is where it's just, you know, putting things in perspective helps a lot. And he just went and he just inadvertently. Uttered a liver more. Observation or liver more technique and that is time is as important as price. Time wears people out in the morning.
其实很多时候，这只是交易周期的问题，不是说损失了多少钱，而是账户回撤持续的时间长短。有时候，这比实际的回撤幅度更让人难受。因为你想要摆脱这种情况，想尽快恢复。因此，从这个角度来看，把事情放在合适的视角下非常重要。他无意中提到了一个利弗莫尔的观点或技巧，那就是时间和价格同样重要。时间会在清晨让人感到疲惫。
And that's why consolidations and basis and shakeouts and all that stuff is really important to understand because those are people that are sitting with the stock. And as time goes by and the stock drifts down, just think about it. You know, you have a stock and it's, and you've owned it for a couple days, a couple weeks and it has a down day and it's a big down day. You go, you check the news, you see what's going on. You don't usually panic right out of it. You know, but if that stock just drifted off little by little every day after day after day after day for a month straight it went down every day, you'd be worn out to death.
这些就是为什么理解整合、基础和震荡等现象非常重要的原因，因为这些因素与持有股票的人有关。随着时间的推移，当股价逐渐下跌时，想象一下这种情景。你手里有一只股票，可能只持有了几天或几周，然后遇到了一个大跌的日子。这时你可能会去查新闻，看看发生了什么情况。通常来说，你不会立即恐慌性抛售。然而，如果这只股票每天都在小幅下跌，连续一个月都是如此，你可能会被消磨掉意志，感到非常疲惫。
You know, as opposed to a real quick drop. And so that's what, and now it comes back up and it gives you some hope, but then it comes back down and it crushes your hope again. And all these emotions get tied up in it. And that's what you're seeing in a chart. You're seeing the emotions on display and you're seeing the supply and demand intersecting and all that when you learn how to read that properly, then you really know how to make heads or how to make heads of it and find out, you know, where the line of least resistance is.
你知道，这与突然的大跌不同。这种情况是指市场先回升，让你有了希望，但随后又下跌，再次打碎你的希望。所有这些情绪都与之交织在一起。这就是你在图表中看到的情形。你看到情绪的展现，看到供需的交织。如果你懂得正确解读这些图表，那么你就能真正理解市场走势，并找出阻力最小的方向。
And that goes again back to Livermore, line of least resistance. One of the best books to read that crystallized everything from me was a Livermore's little book, How to Trade in Stocks. That's one of my favorite books of all time because that was a pivotal moment. When I read that, I said, okay, these are timeless principles. This work back then. It worked for love. It worked for O'Neill. And these, this is amazing stuff here that I can count on that I can build a career on. So I was willing to put the time in because I felt like it would pay me for a lifetime.
这又回到利弗莫尔的观点：最小阻力线。我读过的书中，有一本让我感触最深，那就是利弗莫尔的小册子《股票投资策略》。这是我有史以来最喜欢的书之一，因为那是一个关键时刻。当我读到那本书时，我心想，这些原则是永恒的。这些方法在当时有效，对利弗莫尔有效，对奥尼尔也是如此。这些真的是奇妙的内容，我可以依靠它们来建立我的事业。因此，我愿意投入时间，因为我觉得这会让我受益终生。
And that's precisely what happens. Real quick too. You know, if you want to get into specifics, I know we're going to end the runner out of time here. I do have a couple charts. You know, you asked for a couple of trade examples. We can show how this looks. And then talking about risk too. I think we talk about risk as far as stops are concerned, but risk is more than just your stop. And the way we look at risk is in a, it's like there's five levels, you know, and we're assessing a stock on, of course, the stop. The stop is where you're going to get out.
这正是事情发生的过程，而且速度很快。你知道，如果你想讨论细节，我知道我们时间不多了。我这里有几张图表。你之前要了几个交易示例，我们可以展示这是怎样的。而谈到风险，我认为我们讨论风险时通常是指止损，但风险不仅仅是止损。我们看待风险的方式就像是五个层次。我们会根据这些层次来评估一只股票，当然止损是其中之一，就是你要退出的位置。
And that's whether it's technical or you just decide I'm going to get out at $500 down or 5% that depends. But there's liquidity. All right, there's, as you get bigger, you can, you have to get out when you can get out. Again, you should have that problem. But in the beginning when you're buying 500 shares, you don't have that problem. But you do have the problem that if it's, if it's on liquid, it could be fluctuate quite a bit. And then that gives you overnight risk where now the stock may gap down against you when it rips through your stop.
无论是技术原因还是你决定在亏损500美元或5%时退出，这都要根据具体情况而定。但市场是有流动性的。好的，当你的投资规模增大时，你需要在可以退出的时候退出。这是应该面对的问题。但在初期你购买500股时，这个问题并不明显。不过，如果流动性不足，股价可能会大幅波动，这就带来了隔夜风险，这意味着股票可能会在开盘时大幅下跌，超过你的止损点。
So that's your next risk. Your next risk is position sizing. Right. If you have your whole entire account into one stock, well, then if the next day it gaps down 50%, you're down 50%. So that's another level of risk. And then you've, we've got spread risk. We got spread. And that's for more shorter term. You know, I'm taking a big position. I'm buying 50,000 shares and the spread is a $2 spread. I'm not buying that. I'm not starting at $100,000. Oh, I could tell you right now.
所以这就是你接下来的风险。你下一个需要关注的风险是仓位大小的问题。对吧，如果你把整个账户的资金都投入到了一个股票上，那么如果第二天这个股票跳空下跌50%，你的账户就会亏损50%。这就是另一个层面的风险。然后，还有点差风险。这个风险更多与短期操作相关。比如说，我想进行一个大额交易，买入50,000股，而点差是2美元。我不会买这种股票，也不想以10万美元的起始资金去冒这个风险。对，这就是我现在可以告诉你的。
So, so I take spread risk into consideration. So if it's, you know, general motors, it's, you know, it's a good year tire. It's got a penny spread. I'll go buy and it's completely liquid. It trades 8 million shares a day. I buy 100,000 shares. No problem. But now it's got two points spread and it trades 150,000 shares a day. I'm going to put very little money into that. So that I'm going to have to be a lot more careful. So there's risk on a bunch of different levels and it's assessment of all that.
所以，我会考虑价差风险。如果是通用汽车，它就像是一只优质轮胎，价差只有一分钱。我会买，因为它的流动性很好，每天交易800万股。我买10万股也没问题。但是，如果它的价差变成两个点，每天只交易15万股，那我就不会投入太多资金。这样我就必须更加小心。所以，风险存在于多个不同层面，需要对这些风险进行全面评估。
That gives you your risk profile. Yeah. That's a real nutshell version. But you know, just giving you sort of the basics. Yeah, that's perfect. Let's let's actually jump to those examples. Now, Mark, if you want to bring that up. And I know a lot of people's questions had to do with position management, selling to strength. And there's some really good examples that we're going to walk through here and kind of everybody will chime in and provide their perspective on things.
这让你有了你的风险概况。嗯，这就是一句话总结。但你知道，我只是给你一些基础知识。好的，那太好了。现在，让我们直接进入那些例子吧。马克，如果你愿意，请把例子提出来。我知道很多人的问题与仓位管理和在强势时出售有关。我们这里有一些很好的例子要讲解，大家可以参与进来分享自己的看法。
I think so this is I tweeted this pretty much along the way as we did this trade. This is the micron trade and a couple of things that are interesting about this. And on this chart, we've got some proprietary gauges that we use this is sort of what I call the fab for panel. And we don't have the time to get into it right now, but these are the charts that we use on our platform. You'll see we this is a little uncharacteristic for me. This is sort of a bottom fishing pivot when you come back near the 50 day and you just formed that very short term little pivot.
我想我在进行这笔交易时几乎一直在推特上发布相关信息。这是一笔关于美光公司的交易，有几点值得注意。在这张图表中，我们使用了一些专有指标，我称之为"Fab 四面板"。虽然现在没有时间详细讲解，但这些是我们在平台上使用的图表。对于我来说，这种做法有点不太寻常，这是一种接近50日线时的抄底策略，只是刚刚形成了一个非常短期的小支点。
I very seldom do this. This is one micron. I like what AI is doing for this industry group. I think they're elongating their cycle, their earning cycle. This is a cyclical a growth cyclical group that is turning more to the growth side now because of AI is obviously, you know, moving in pushing all types of it's like a big, you know, river pushing out all these little streams all over the place so AI is very influential in a lot of areas. So we got aggressive on it right off the lows.
我很少这样做。这是一个微小的变化。我喜欢人工智能对这个行业群体的影响。我认为人工智能延长了他们的盈利周期。这个行业属于周期性增长行业，现在因为人工智能的推动，它正在更加转向增长面。人工智能就像一条巨大的河流，推动着各个方向的细流，影响到许多领域。所以在市场低谷时，我们就对这个领域采取了积极策略。
And, but it didn't, it didn't go right away and it started turning down. And so we immediately started reducing it. And we reduced it on the on the second day it turned down. And then after I got that little bounce back. I actually thought we were going to get a little bounce. And that was sort of like the bounce before the dead cat bounce before it was going to collapse. And I had it wrong. So I reduced again, but kept a little position, but then it held up and it moved right up and then it formed what I call a cheat area.
这段英语翻译成中文如下：
然而，但事情并没有立即按预期发展，反而开始下跌。所以我们立刻开始减少（仓位/投资）。到了第二天，它还是在下跌。之后，当出现小幅反弹时，我认为会有一个小的上涨。这就像是崩盘前的反弹，被称为"死猫反弹"。我判断错了，于是再次减少了仓位，但还是保留了一小部分。接着，市场稳定下来并开始上涨，形成了我称之为"投机区域"的走势。
This is the, this is the cheat, which is just a basically a handle or a pivot within the middle portion of the base. And then I had a lower third. I call it a low cheat. If in the middle, I call it a cheat and the top would be a typical on the handle, which on the old got the handle from Jiller who had the saucer and platform and on the old changer to the cup of handle. I took the cup and handle started realizing, you know what, there's, there's, there's lower points in the base that you can buy this.
这是一个称之为“中部支点”的技巧，它基本上是基座中间部分的一个支撑点。另外，我还有一个称为“低位支点”的技巧。如果是在中间，我就称之为支点，而顶部则是典型的把手。在这个老方法中，Jiller的设计有碟子和平台，我在老版本中把它改为把手的形状。我意识到，在这个基座上，其实可以找到更低的位置进行购买。
So I had a friend of mine, we used to trade and we used to call each other throughout the day and talk about our trades. And I said, Hey, did you buy, you know, did you see a XYZ? And I said, Hey, I already bought it. I cheated. And he said, what do you mean, I bought it? You know, we could go was a lower lower pivot. And that's how the cheat started. And we realized that when the cup completed before the handle, you would get what we call the cup completion cheat.
我有一个朋友，我们以前经常一起交易，整天互相打电话讨论我们的交易。有一次，我问他：“嘿，你买XYZ了吗？” 当时我说：“嘿，我已经买了。我‘作弊’了。” 他说：“你什么意思，你买了？” 我们之前说好的价格更低。然后我们发现，当“杯子”形态还没形成“握柄”前就完成时，就会出现我们所谓的“杯子完成作弊”。
So then I realized, and that was, we would have to have the stock run up the right side a bit and it would form in the lower, I'm sorry, the middle portion. But then years later, it was like, maybe 10 years later, 15 years later, I started recognizing and going, you know what, there's a low cheat. There's even a weight, there's more like on TV, you know, there's even another spot. But the thing is that you're going into the lower you buy the more you're going into overhead supply on the left side.
所以我意识到，我们需要让股票在右侧稍微上涨一点，这样它就会在中间部分形成。但多年之后，大概是10年或15年后，我开始认识到，其实还有一个更低的买入点。实际上，有时候就像电视上那样，还有另一个机会。但是问题在于，当你在较低价位买入时，你需要面对左侧的更多潜在抛售压力。
And as I developed as a trader, I started getting better at recognizing overhead and being able to read it and be able to effectively buy off the lows a little bit better. And that just takes, I call it an expert by as you go down in the in the base, you need to be better your skill needs to be better because you have to be able to assess overhead supply to the left. When you're on the right side, and you're up by the old highs and you're breaking to new high, there is no overhead supply or there's very little.
随着我作为交易员的发展，我开始更好地识别上方压力，并能够更有效地在低点买入。我称之为专家级技巧，因为当你向下看跌幅时，你需要提高技能，因为你必须评估左侧的上方供应。当你在右侧、接近之前的高点并突破新高时，几乎没有或者很少有上方供应。
So you don't have to be as skilled. So with this one, this is what we would call an expert by coming off the lows, and then we quickly lightened up, but as it's set up now it improves and very often, whether we're putting progressive exposure and building into a position. Or just buying it for the first time, the best buy is at a higher price than the previous by. And you can see here we're buying here we're buying higher here, but I get even more aggressive so here I go full 100% not 100% invested the whole account but a full position we went to the full 100% position went back, then it was able to mark itself up and tighten up even more and really form a nice large base.
所以，你不需要太高超的技巧。在这一点上，我们可以称之为从低谷反弹的专家，然后我们迅速减仓。但如当前的布局，它有所改善，并且通常无论是渐进式增加投资还是首次购买，最好的买入点通常比之前的买入价更高。你可以看到，我们在这里买入，在更高的位置买入，但我会更加积极，所以在这里我全力以赴，虽然不是把整个账户的资金都投入进去，但采取了满仓头寸。我们达到了满仓头寸，然后它能够自我提升，并且进一步收紧，最终形成了一个很好的大幅度上涨基底。
And at that point, that's when we went overweight. Now we now we took a really big position. Now with that overweight, a lot of times what I'll do and I'm just walking you through this so you can see sort of how, you know, we trade I trade they trade. A lot of times what we do is we have if we're overweight and we're fortunate to get a quick move will take the overweight off. Because now we still got a full position and now maybe you know we were up, let's just call it 10% and our stop is eight or 10%. Well now we have a full position and we fully financed all the risk. Holy cow, what a position to be in. I have my whole position and I have zero risk. That's what we call asymmetric leverage.
当时，我们决定加仓，于是我们采取了一个非常大的仓位。在加仓的情况下，很多时候我会这样做，我带你一步步了解我们的交易方式。通常情况下，如果我们加仓后幸运地得到快速回报，我们会减掉加仓部分。这样一来，我们仍然持有完整的仓位，并且可能已经有了10%的收益，而我们的止损位在8%或10%。现在，我们不仅持有完整的仓位，还在无风险的情况下实现了盈利。这就是我们所谓的非对称杠杆。
So we're always trying to get to a point, an angle ourselves to have asymmetric leverage where the upside far outweighs the downside to a point where we've improved our worst case scenario, but we don't have any risk anymore. And that's really the key. That's the key to making big returns having low drawdowns is to always move for asymmetric leverage. This is a term that I learned from my very good friend and one of my mentors Larry height, who those of you who know me and came last year to our gala met Larry height.
我们一直在努力达到这样一个状态，也就是让自己处于一种不对称杠杆的位置，使得收益远大于风险，直到我们把最坏的情况都改善了，而不再有任何风险。这就是关键。获得高回报、减少损失的关键就在于始终追求这种不对称杠杆。这是我从我的好朋友兼导师 Larry Hite 那里学到的一个概念，去年参加我们晚会的朋友们就见过他。
Well, you know what I know he's someone one of the most beautiful people you ever meet in your life. He's awesome and he's in his 80s and he calls me up and he goes, I just love to learn. I just love to talk to you and learn. And he's still learning and we learn from each other. But we always talk about asymmetric leverage, creating this asymmetric leverage. So then as you rally here. And you get the stock gets extended from a swing trading standpoint, you know, very often we'll just sell this stock, take a quick profit, whether it's 15, 20, 25, sometimes, you know, 40, 50% or more, and sell right into strength and get out when the getting is good.
好吧，你知道我所知道的，他是你一生中会遇到的最美好的人之一。他很了不起，现在已经八十多岁了。他会打电话给我，说他很喜欢学习，很喜欢和我交流学习。他仍在不断学习，而我们也从彼此身上学到东西。我们总是讨论不对称杠杆，这种创造不对称杠杆的方法。所以当你在这里反弹时，从波段交易的角度来看，如果股票大幅上涨，我们通常会卖出这支股票，快速获利，不管是15%、20%、25%，有时甚至是40%、50%或更多。我们会在市场强劲时果断卖出，并在情况有利时离场。
This particular time happened to be the day before 17% draw down so it was a perfect sale, but it could have very easily been a horrible sale. I mean, if you look at Nvidia, I don't have the chart. Actually, I could pull up a chart. Hold on. Let me see. Let's pull up. So two things about Nvidia. Let me say one thing. First of all, we heard some people say that breakouts don't work anymore. And we hear this from time to time.
这次交易正好发生在17%下跌的前一天，所以是一次非常成功的出售，但它也很可能变成一次糟糕的出售。我的意思是，如果你看看英伟达，我现在手边没有图表。实际上，我可以调出一个图表。等一下，让我找一下。关于英伟达，有两点我想说。首先，偶尔我们会听到有人说股票突破不再有效。
David Ryan and I commented about this many times where you get periods of times where breakouts don't work, just like anything nothing. If this system, you know, and what I do work every single day professionally, I'd be a trillionaire. You know, so yes, it takes work. It takes faith to go through the tough times. And you got to give everybody gets their chance, you know, like your breakouts will work for some cycles and then the value guys get their chance. But you got to stick with it because you're not going to be good at switching from one to the next to the next to the next.
大卫·瑞恩和我多次评论过这个现象，你会遇到某些时期，突破策略不起作用，这就像其他任何事情一样。如果这个系统、我所做的事情每天都职业化运作，那我早就成亿万富翁了。所以，是的，这需要努力。需要信念去度过困难时期。你必须给每个人一个机会，你的突破策略在一些周期中会奏效，然后价值投资者也会迎来他们的机会。但是你必须坚持，因为你不会擅长不停地从一种策略切换到另一种。
So, but the same breakouts don't work is to ignore, you know, okay, we look at, let's say we look at a 10 year period, even if they didn't work for 10 years, they were for 120, you know, so it's to ignore history. And if you look at that 120 years, you'll see that there's stretches where, yes, it's very challenging to play breakouts. But here's the great news. When they don't work for a while, I love it. Mark smiling because he feels the same way he knows he learned what I know is that when they don't work, it's perfect because you weed out everyone.
所以，同样的突破策略如果不奏效，就要忽视它。假设我们查看一个10年的时期，即使在这10年里它们不起作用，但在120年里它们是有效的。所以忽视历史是不对的。如果你查看那120年，你会发现有些时期，玩突破策略确实非常具有挑战性。但好消息是，当它们暂时不起作用时，我很喜欢这种情况。马克也是如此，他也在微笑，因为他知道，他学到了我知道的东西，那就是当这些策略不奏效时，这正好可以筛掉一些人。
And then they work like a charm. The longer they don't work, the more I am adding money to my account and getting ready for the chance of a lifetime where I'm going to make a fortune in a very short and mark and Brandon have years where there are up 350%. So, I was in the year where I was up 412% of three in the, in the US investing championship in 2021. I was up almost 350%. So you have those years every now and then you only need a few of those, you know, and as long as you keep the downside and check, you make a lot of money.
译文：然后它们就像魔法一样开始运作。它们运作得越不好，我就越往账户里加钱，为那可能让我在短时间内赚大钱的机会做好准备。马克和布兰登有过增长350%的年份，而我在2021年美国投资锦标赛中，那一年我增长了412%。我几乎达到350%。这样的年份时不时会出现，你只需要几个这样的好运年，只要能够控制住风险，就能赚很多钱。
So, but looking at Nvidia, we bought Nvidia right here. Right, right on this day right here, just as it started to come out. When I was in the house, I was like, I was like, I'm not gonna buy it any better. It was textbook. I'm sure lots of people bought it there. But I also just sold it right into the first rally. But I also bought it back here. I'm sharing other times. And this just speaks to two points. One, breakouts. This is one of the biggest companies in the world. And it should be these are the companies that the breakout shouldn't work because they're so efficiently priced.
所以，看着英伟达（Nvidia），我们在这里买入了英伟达。就在这一天，它刚刚开始突破的时候。当时我在家里心想，我不可能有更好的买入时机了。这一切就像教科书般完美。我相信很多人在那个时候也买入了。但我也在第一次涨势中卖掉了它。不过我也在这里又买了回来。我分享其他的时候。这说明了两点。第一，突破。这是全球最大的公司之一，突破理论在这样的公司上不应该有效，因为它们的价格非常高效地反映了市场。
But look at this breakout here. I bought it. And I also sold it into strength very quickly. And it turned out to be, you know, obviously way too early. But that's just been my ammo since day one. So, and a lot of times what I'll do is I'll sell into strength and it'll read base. I'll buy it again. I'll sell to strength. And when it's all said and done. I traded Yahoo of 1997 off the IPO like seven times. I didn't make it. I don't even remember what it was four or 500% on it. And I traded the first time for a double next time 60% the next time 30 the next time 20 next time 25 when it was all said and done. I made hundreds and hundreds of percent on a stock that went up 8000%. And over the years, you know, I bought Amazon right off the I right off the IPO base. I bought Yahoo off the IPO base. I was Cisco off the IPO base people go. I sold that you would have made 100,000%.
这段英文的大意如下：
你看这个突破行情，我买入了，然后在强劲走势中很快卖出。事实证明，我卖得显然太早了。但从一开始这就是我的策略。很多时候我会在强势时卖出，然后等它重新盘整，再次买入，然后再次在强势时卖出。最终，我通过这方法在1997年Yahoo刚上市时来回交易了大约七次。当时我没有持有到股票上涨8000%的时候，但通过多次买卖，我赚取了数百个百分点的收益。多年来，我也在公司首次公开募股（IPO）后买入过像亚马逊、思科这样的公司。有人会说，如果你持有到现在，会赚取十万倍的收益。
I've made over 600,000% in my career. If you compound everything I'm up about over 600,000% over my my it's actually over about 30 years or so. I think it comes out to 35 or 40% a year compound. Funny thing is Mark, when we were just preparing for this, I looked at your return 5,000 plus. I think about the same that I am up career. I think I think your return comes out to about 35% a year or something like that. So, so I've had those triple digit runs where, you know, in the 90s, I had a run where I was up 220% average for five years, but over the long, long term. You know, I'm up in the neighborhood of just under 40%. But anyway, I want to show you that.
我在我的职业生涯中赚取了超过600,000%的回报。如果把所有的收益合起来，大约是在30年间增加了600,000%。我想这大约意味着每年复合增长率有35%或40%。有趣的是，马克，当我们准备这个的时候，我查看了你的回报率，超过了5,000%。我想这跟我职业生涯的回报率差不多。我认为你的回报率大概是每年35%左右。我曾有过一些三位数的增长，比如在90年代，我有一段时间的年均增长率是220%，持续了五年，不过从长期来看，我的平均年增幅大约在40%左右。不管怎样，我想展示给你看。
Let's go on just to add a quick comment to the Nvidia. You know, Mark, you know, Mark's talking about, you know, yeah, selling to early and to my comment before. Listen, if I make multiple of my risk and the stock goes higher. That's fine. I'm in this. I'm in the business to make money. And if you look at the way Mark is handling these, the way we're handling even this most recent example, the Nvidia, it's all alpha. He's grabbing that quick alpha. And for a lot of people don't understand this concept. They want to just be an Nvidia forever, because it's the stock that's always moving. But we're looking and that's another way to skin the cat.
让我们继续讨论一下英伟达。我想对Mark的观点做一个补充。你知道吗，Mark在谈论过早卖出股票。在我之前的评论中，我说过，如果我获得的收益是我承受的风险的好几倍，而股票价格继续上涨，那也没关系。我做投资就是为了赚钱。看看Mark是怎么处理这些事情的，以及我们处理最近英伟达这个例子的方式，这一切都是在追求超额收益。他正在快速获取那个超额收益。很多人不理解这个概念，他们只想一直持有英伟达，因为这是一只总在变动的股票。但我们在寻找其他方法，这是另一种解决问题的方法。
That is another way to skin the cat, but it's a much more volatile way to skin the cat. You know, you're skin in a live cat, if you will, or something, you know, where we're sitting here trying to grab, you know, that quick alpha move. Before letting, you know, being very precise on our timing. And that's what we're trying to continue to turn over and not allowing that stock then, you know, to take you for a while to ride as it gets extended. The other point I would make from the micron is that every one of those buys, if you just look at them in a vacuum stands on their own. And that's one thing we're always talking about.
这是一种不同的方法来处理问题，但这种方法风险更大。可以说，你是在处理一个“活生生的挑战”，而我们则在努力快速获取短期利润。这需要我们在时机把握上非常精准。我们的目标是快速转换，不让股票延续上涨后带着你一直走下去。关于Micron的另一个观点是，每一次购买决策如果单独进行分析，都自有其价值。这也是我们一直讨论的重点。
Each one of these buys. So even if you didn't own the name and that that first buy was the most professional buy for sure. But the second and third buy, if you didn't own the name, that's where I'd be wanting to buy it. It's just sort of a great point. Well, Mark is saying is that we're not adding to it just simply because we'd be buying at that spot anyway. So they, that's a really important point that everybody stands on its own and you're not just haphazardly. You know, people think that when they listen to comments like O'Neill makes where you say, you know, you, you pyramid into the stock that you just buy it just for the heck of it because it's up 5%. No, it still has to meet the same criteria meet the same hurdle.
每一次这样的买入都是经过深思熟虑的。所以即使你之前没有持有这些股票，第一次买入肯定是最专业的选择。但如果你之前没有持有这个名字，第二次和第三次买入也是很好的切入点。这实际上是一个很棒的观点。马克所说的是，我们不再增持这些股票，仅仅是因为我们本来也会选择在那个点买入。所以，每个买入时机都应该被认真对待，而不是随意操作。很多人误解，以为像奥尼尔这样的评论就是让你在股票上涨5%时胡乱买入。实际上，买入仍需符合相同的标准和门槛。
Now, you know, these techniques will work and, you know, this is something that Mark pointed out a long time. He said, you know, why are we trading, you know, crypto and all these cryptos. They're like responding perfectly to your tactics. And then of course, recently we were trading I bit, which is Bitcoin, of course, but there's lots of cryptos, but this chart shows a couple of things and how we trade and also how we handle the risk side and getting stopped out. But one point to make is opportunity cost. So yes, you could own a Amazon and hold it for the, I have a friend that's held Amazon for like 15 years.
现在，你知道这些技术是有效的，而且这也是马克很早以前指出的一个观点。他说，为什么我们要交易加密货币，因为你知道，这些加密货币对你的策略反应很完美。当然，最近我们在交易 I bit，这其实就是比特币。当然还有很多其他的加密货币，但这张图展示了几个方面：我们如何进行交易，以及如何处理风险和止损。但需要注意的一点是机会成本。是的，你可以持有像亚马逊这样的股票，比如我有个朋友已经持有亚马逊超过15年了。
He's made up fortune in it from a very small investment. But how many people are fortunate enough to do that and how many people would hold through a 50% drawdown or 90% pullback to get to that. Right. So I always say, somebody wins Lotto every week, but every week the name's different. Right. So why, I want, I started trading because I wanted to get rich and I wanted to have the freedom of having a job that I had the freedom and I didn't go work for somebody. And I needed consistency. I needed to make money consistently for two reasons. One, because I need to make money and to grow your wealth, you need to compound.
他通过一笔很小的投资赚了很多钱。但有多少人能有这样的好运气？又有多少人在经历50%的亏损或90%的回调时仍会坚持下去呢？对吧。所以我总是说，每周都会有人中乐透，但每周的中奖人都不一样。对吧。我之所以开始做交易，是因为我想致富，我想拥有一份自由的职业，而不是为别人打工。我需要稳定性，我需要稳定地赚钱，原因有两个：第一，我需要赚钱；第二，为了增长财富，你需要复利增长。
So I realized that, you know what, stocks go up 10, 15, 20%. Every stock goes up 10, 15, 20%. But only a handful go up 80,000%. And it takes a long time. So I did the math. I realized, and we have something, the mass trader program, it's relatively new. I've been only talking about in the last few years. And it's called mind blowing math. And once you see that, it changes everything. You're, you're entire. I, I, I've had hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of people send me emails and just go, my God, that is just blew my mind. You said it was mind blowing. It was mind blowing and it changed my whole perspective.
所以我意识到，你知道吗，股票一般会上涨10%、15%、20%。每只股票都会涨10%、15%、20%。但只有极少数会涨到80,000%。这需要很长时间。所以我做了数学计算。我意识到，我们有个东西，叫“大交易者计划”，它相对较新。我在过去几年才开始谈论它。我们把它称为“震撼人心的数学”。一旦你理解了这一点，一切都会改变。你的整个思维都会改变。我收到过成百上千封邮件，人们告诉我，他们被震撼到了。你说它会令人震撼，果然如此，这改变了我整个的看法。
And so. Here's a perfect example. You know, and this is off of the, what we would call the cheat, the low cheat right here. It's a perfect example. And this was already an existing. Security, obviously, but this is where they put the ETF and it formed what looks like an IPO. But you've got this little low cheat, we bought it right here. Right. Took a full size, big position right into strength, reduced it. Bitcoin could be volatile. So I said, you know what, let's take some off the table here.
好的，这里有一个完美的例子。你知道的，这是我们所谓的低点投机。它已经是一个现有的证券，但他们在这里放入了ETF，看起来像是一次IPO。我们在这个低点买入，立刻建立了一个大的持仓。然后，在价格上涨时，减少了持仓。比特币可能会很波动，于是我说，我们在这里套现一部分。
Now we're free rolling, right? But then it's set up. And like I said, you could sometimes get very often your, your best buy is at a higher price. So it sets up, it tightens up real nice here and holds its gains sets up a perfect. If you look at it's a perfect cup of handle right BCP, what I call it. Boom, comes out here. We're back in. We move right back up and we ratchet up again. And I, I do the process all over again. I reduce it into the strength. And I cover my risk once again. And now I've already backlogged the profit and now I backlogged to profit.
现在我们处在一个无风险的状态，对吧？但是一切已经设置好了。就像我说的，有时候你的最佳购买价会出现在更高的位置。所以它设置好了，这里收紧得非常好并保持了它的收益，设置得非常完美。如果你看一下，它的形态就像一个完美的杯柄形态，就是我所谓的BCP。突然间，它在这里出现了突破。我们重新进入市场，向上移动，并再次逐步上升。然后我会重复这个过程。我在强势中减少持仓，再次降低我的风险。而现在，我已经积累了一部分利润，并且我再次积累了利润。
So now I'm really free rolling. It moves up a little more. I reduce. And then it had this break. And I felt like, Oh, shit, I should have sold it into the strength and just closed it. But I got what I call the gift when you get a big break and you get that dead cat bounce, especially if it comes back two thirds or so. I usually just get out right then and there. So I, I punted it on that next day. And then it went up a couple more days rolled over. And then we tried to get back in it over here as it came off the lows here and a little pullback by and we were, we were thinking this will probably not take off right from here.
现在我真的算是白赚的状态。价格稍微上涨了一点，我减少了持有量。然后出现了一个下跌，我心想，天啊，我真应该在价格强势的时候就卖掉它，把仓位清空。不过，我得到了一个我称之为“礼物”的机会——大跌后出现了技术性反弹，特别是当价格回升到下跌幅度的三分之二左右时。我通常会就在那时立刻退出。于是，我在第二天就卖掉了它。之后，又涨了一两天，然后回落。然后我们试图在价格从低点回升并稍微回调的时候重新入手，但我们觉得这次可能不会马上上涨。
You'll probably come up and tighten up and then we'll add to it. And it did. And it was looking perfect, but then it turned tail and we put a break even stop we got out. Then we, we kept watching it, watching it and went through this and undercut these lows perfect tightened up. Now I was like, Okay, this is it. This is where it's really going to take off. I got a nice big base now and really getting, you know, aggressive on it and started buying it right here again. And then we just put a super tight stop.
这段话可以翻译为：
"可能会出现并收紧，然后我们会再增加一些。结果真的出现了，看起来很完美。但是后来价格反转，我们设定了一个保本止损点，退出了。然后我们继续观察，观察，它突破后完美收紧。那时我觉得，好吧，这就是机会，它真的要开始上涨了。我现在有了一个很好的大基础，决定积极投资，于是又开始买入。在这里，我们设定了一个非常紧的止损点。"
And then got out on it right away. Got stopped out of it. And I thought I might have blown it because it right after that it took off and up a few days. And Mark, you know, we had a conversation is like, Oh, I think we might have got out too quick here. But since then it's rolled over and now, you know, we're out of it. But that's the, that's the way, you know, we're trading around positions. We're adding back, we're reducing, we're using strength to sell into getting out when the getting is good.
然后立刻退出了交易，但很快就被止损了。我以为自己可能搞砸了，因为那之后几天它开始上涨。马克，我们当时有过一次对话，好像是说“哦，我觉得我们可能退出得太快了。”但从那之后，它又回落了，所以现在我们已经没有持仓了。这就是我们调整持仓的方式：我们会在合适的时候增持或减持，利用强势时卖出，在合适时机离场。
And not, not walking away from a stock, you know, even there's sometimes where I'm buying the stock on the fifth base. I was buying it on the first base. I sold it with a second base. I bought it. Five, six times buying it as it comes out of base after base after base. And then when you're stringing all together, you got this really nice big return on that stock, but it's from a number of traits.
在股票投资中，有时候我不会轻易放弃某只股票。即使在股票的第五个整理期时我仍可能买入。我在第一个整理期买入，然后在第二个整理期卖出，之后又多次买入。每当股票经历一个整理期并突破后，我都会继续买入。最终，把所有这些操作串联在一起，就能在这只股票上获得非常可观的回报。但这回报是通过多次交易积累而来的。
And jumping with the question, because you mentioned free rolling a trade and just to clarify for people who may not be familiar with that. When you're, when you say reduce, if you go back to that chart, just, just quick. Sorry. No worries. I'll ask the question as we start. The Bitcoin, the Bitcoin. This one. I bet. Yeah. When, when you say reduce in, in that label, when you're selling for that first push up, you're also moving your stop up to break even. And that's what's free rolling the trade. Is that correct? And is there anything you want to add?
当然可以。这段话的中文翻译如下：
"跳到这个问题，因为你提到‘自由滚动’交易，为了让不太熟悉这个概念的人能明白。我想澄清一下，当你说‘减少’的时候，如果你回到那张图，稍等，对不起，没关系。我们开始时我会提问。比特币，比特币。这张，对吧。当你在标签里说‘减少’时，当你在第一次上涨时卖出，你也会把止损点上移到盈亏平衡点。这就是所谓的‘自由滚动’交易，对吗？你还有什么要补充的吗？"
Oh, all right. So it's a great question. Mark, if you guys have anything to add, I know, usually we're talking the same language, but look, there's a few ways that you can free roll. One is you buy the stock, it moves up, and now you move your stop to break even. Obviously, if it goes down, you break even, right? But the problem with that is that now you choke the trade. You, you, you cinch up on the trade. You do have a full position. You have your whole position still, right? But now you're not giving it any room.
哦，好吧。这是个很好的问题。马克，如果你们有任何补充，请告诉我。我知道通常我们讨论的都是同一个东西，不过你看，这里有几种可以“免费”操作的方法。一个方法是你先买入股票，如果股票价格上涨，然后把止损位置调整到成本价。显然，如果股价下跌，你就能保本，对吧？但是，这样做的问题是，你反而限制了交易的空间。你的整个仓位还在，对吧？但这样一来就不给股票任何波动的余地了。
So a compromise is to, if that stock goes up, X percentage, and the more it goes up, the less you have to sell to do this. If it goes up an equal amount to your stop, let's say your stop's 8%. If it goes up an equal amount, it goes up 8%. If you sell half, you now can let it go down at 8% and you're still break even. Now, you only have half the trade, but you have two things to your advantage. One, you have unlimited upside on that half position and you have zero downside. All right. So, and you've been able to give it more room now. You give it the room. So you've got those two things going for you.
因此，一个折衷的做法是，如果该股票上涨了X百分比，并且上涨得越多，你就需要卖得越少。假设你的止损位是8%，如果股票上涨同样的幅度，比如说也上涨了8%，那么如果你卖掉一半的仓位，你就可以允许它回落8%，而仍然不会亏损。现在，你只有一半的交易，但有两个有利之处。首先，那一半的仓位有无限上涨的潜力，同时没有下跌的风险。而且，你现在可以给它更多的波动空间。所以，你有这两方面的优势。
Now, you could do the same thing mathematically and say, well, I have 100% upside and no downside and I have double the position. Right. But now you might be knocked out of it and you have no position. So me, I'd rather have half position and give it more room most of the time, especially if it's the beginning of a bull market because now if I'm on a monster, even a half position could be huge. Later stage, I'm not even playing that game. I'm just selling right into strength and just getting out into getting is good.
现在，你可以用数学的方法来说，我有100%的上涨空间并且没有下跌风险，所以我要加倍持仓。对吧。但是这样的话，你可能会被迫退出，最终一无所有。因此，我更愿意持有一半的仓位，并且大多数时候给它更多的操作空间，特别是在牛市的初期。如果我抓住了一个大赢家，即使只是持有一半仓位也可能获利丰厚。在牛市后期，我不会参与那种游戏，而是会在市场强劲时卖出套现，当机会好的时候尽快退出。
And I'm not thinking hold for a big move when I'm fifth stage base and I've been in a bull market for three years. Now, I switch over to more to a trader. So again, there's, you know, there's nuances there and there's there is some art to it, but a lot of it's, you know, science too.
当我在牛市中已经经历了三年的第五阶段基期时，我不再考虑持有以等待大幅上涨。相反，我会转换为更像交易者的角色。当然，这其中有一些细微的差别，这不仅仅是经验，也有一些科学的方法在里面。
And one more question I had about this trade is before your June or late May trade there where you were stopped out, there was kind of a potential low cheat area there in early May, where it pushes off the lows. Was that not quite tight enough for you? There's also a gap out of that area. How would you kind of analyze that part of the chart? So we were looking at it there and that's exactly right. And I know you have a good eye for this. And, but you see it gapped. It didn't really tighten up and then it came out on the gap and we're not going to chase the gap.
翻译成中文并简化后的表达如下：
"我对这次交易还有一个问题。在你六月或五月底的交易中被止损之前，五月初有一个潜在的低吸区域，那时候价格从低位反弹。这个区域对你来说是否不够紧？那里也有一个缺口跳出。你会如何分析这部分图表呢？我们当时看了那个位置，正如你所说。你的眼光很好，不过你可以看到，有一个缺口，但价格并没有收紧就跳了出来，而我们不打算追逐这个缺口。"
So you have the overhead too. You know, you've got more overhead when you're going low cheat, you've got a lot of overhead. So if you're really close to the door, now you've got to measure how much overhead to the left and how deep you are. So let's just say this was a 50% decline. Okay, this overhead is major. I'm not touching that. Let's say this is a 15% decline. Now, this is very viable. Because there's a very little overhead still even with that scenario, probably unless things are going great and everything's just ripping.
所以，你也需要考虑额外负担。当你采取低成本策略时，你会有更多的额外负担。如果你真的很接近目标门槛，现在就需要评估左侧有多少额外负担，以及你当前的位置多深。假设这个额外负担是50%的下降，那么这个负担就很严重，我不会碰。如果是15%的下降，那就是可行的，因为即使在这种情况下，额外的负担也很少，除非事情进展顺利，一切都快速腾飞。
We probably still would take a partial position and then sort of build into it because most likely it's going to run up. It's going to go into this overhead and it's going to pause just like it did. And this is where you can see how it's developing is doing what it should do. This is absolutely perfect. You know, up to this point, it's perfect. And even this pullback, nothing wrong. Then here, that's abnormal. That's not acting right. And as it comes below here, now it's really not acting right.
我们可能仍然会采取部分仓位，然后逐步加仓，因为它很可能会上涨。它会进入上方阻力区并稍作停顿，就像之前那样。在这里，你可以看到它的发展是按预期进行的。这完全是完美的。到目前为止，一切都很顺利。即使有回调，也没有问题。但是在这里，这种情况有点异常，不太正常。当它跌破这里时，就真的不太正常了。
So now it's got to go through a whole reset. That's just not when I say not acting right, meaning that the supply is coming to market. You know, we have not gone through this supply, the supply. And this is a concept that I originally heard O'Neill say he made, he said, you have to find out when supply stops coming to market. And then I termed it, I want to be the last week holder.
现在它必须经历一次全面的重置。当我说"表现不好"时，我的意思是供应正涌入市场。我们还没有经过这一波供应。而这个概念，我最初是听O'Neill提到的，他说你必须找出供应何时停止进入市场。然后我将其称为，我想成为“最后一周的持有者”。
We talked about week holds. I want to be the last week holder. You heard Mark, Mark talk about that earlier. That means that the supply, you're in an uptrenders, there's big institutions that are buying this stock. There's a lot of small guys that are trading this that they're weak holders. They're going to get knocked out on a little pullback. They got their stop real tight. They're doing all these techniques that we're talking about. Those are weak holders. But the big guys, the guys that are really moving the stock that can sustainably move the stock, they're forming the cup. They're buying down here.
我们谈到了“弱持有者”。我想成为最后一个“弱持有者”。你听到Mark提到过这个意思。这意味着在股票上涨趋势中，大型机构正在买入这只股票。有很多小散户在交易这只股票，他们就是“弱持有者”。当股价稍微回调时，他们就会被轻易淘汰。他们设置止损点非常紧密，采用我们讨论的各种技巧。这些就是“弱持有者”。但是，那些真正能够推动股票的“大玩家”，能够持续影响股票走势的，正在“形成杯型”形态，他们在低位买入。
They're supporting the stock. So when finally you weed out all these little guys, well, there's nothing left. There's no supply. And now you have big demand. So if you have big demand and low supply, what happens? Boom, explosion. That's why it's not a coincidence that when you see these charts and you see these tight areas on the right side that the stock catapult out of there. People think, well, that's because of the chart. Everybody sees it. They're like, no, absolutely not. Just the opposite. It's not the cause. It's the effect.
他们正在支撑这只股票。所以，当你最终清除掉所有这些小投资者时，市场上几乎没有卖家，供应量很低。此时如果需求很大，会发生什么呢？价格就会迅猛上涨。这就是为什么你会看到图表上的某些阶段，股票突然急剧上升的原因。人们通常以为这是因为图表的形态，但是事实恰恰相反。这种走势并不是图表变化的原因，而是结果。
If everybody saw it, it wouldn't work. That's precisely would be the opposite. So you have to think, how is the supply coming to market? This took me a good decade to even understand, let alone to apply. And even to this day, Bob Weisman, who's worked for me for 21 years, it took him a decade. 10 years later, he goes, all right, I think I got it. It's like 10 years later, he goes, I think I got what you're talking about. He's asked me every day. What, what does it really mean? They say he thought he would get the point. And then he tell me, I said, no, that's not right. That's not what it means. And we had to go over and go over and go over and go over charts.
如果每个人都看到了这一点，那就行不通了。那正好是相反的结果。所以你必须思考，供应是如何进入市场的。这花了我十年的时间才理解这一点，更不用说应用它了。甚至到今天，Bob Weisman，他为我工作了21年，他也花了十年。他在十年后对我说，好吧，我想我明白了。这就像是十年后，他说，我想我明白你在说什么了。他每天都在问我，这到底是什么意思？他说他以为自己理解了，然后告诉我，我说，不，那不对，那不是它的意思。我们不得不反复地查看图表，详细讨论。
So once you understand that, then you really understand what's going on here and it can make sense to you. I love it. I just add to you. Look at those. Look at those first two little pivots. They're, yeah, they're perfect. Tighten price. Yeah. And the volume is contracting and that, especially that second one, that volume comes in price only has one place to go. And that demand that Mark is talking about, you're seeing it right there. It's just a textbook example.
只要你明白了这一点，你就真的理解了这里发生的事情，这一切都会对你有意义。我真是喜欢这个。我还想告诉你，看看那前两个小转折点。它们太完美了，价格趋紧。当成交量收缩，尤其是第二个转折点时，成交量增加，而价格只有一个方向可以走。而且，马克所说的需求，你就在这里看到了。这就是一个典型的例子。
Yeah. And again, it, so why aren't you a richest man in the world? You just do that? Well, because it, there's discipline involved. It doesn't work all the time. Matter of fact, the only works about half the time. In a good market in a bad market. This will only work about 20 30% of the time. All right. But that's part of the strategy. Part of the strategy is managing the times where things don't work well. It's like, do you go up to bat and get a base hit every time? No. Do you hit a home run every time? No, good, good baseball players bat 300. That's good. Right. They strike out seven out of 10 times.
好的。那么，为什么你不是世界上最富有的人呢？你只需要照这样做吗？嗯，因为这里涉及到自律。这种方法并不是每次都有效。事实上，只在一半的情况下才有效。在好的市场或糟糕的市场中，这种方法只有20%到30%的成功率。但这就是策略的一部分。策略的一部分就是管理那些效果不佳的情况。就像是你每次上场打击都能击出安打吗？不会。每次都能打出全垒打吗？也不会。优秀的棒球选手打击率是三成，这已经很好了，对吧？换句话说，他们每10次上场有7次会被淘汰出局。
So then how do you ever win a game? You know, it's the same thing. You've got it. You've got to manage it. You've got to manage it and take advantage of when it does work with trading. You have the position sizing. You know, you've, you've can step on the gas when it's working. You could ride the break. And that's the art part. That's part science, but also takes a lot of experience to get it to where you really understand when you should be really really gassing it and making those returns and then laying off and letting all the noise go by.
那么，你要如何赢得游戏呢？你知道的，道理是一样的。你必须管理它。你得管理好并在运作良好时加以利用。在交易中，你有仓位大小的控制。可以在有利的时候加大投资力度，也可以在不利时收敛。这里面有艺术的成分，也有科学的部分，同时也需要很多经验，才能真正理解什么时候应该大力投资赚取回报，什么时候应该放松，让那些杂音过去。
And that ties in really nicely to the concept that we know everybody wants to hear about progressive exposure. Mark, if you wouldn't mind going back to the MU trade because this, I believe would have been one of your first trades at first by coming out of the correction that we were in. Could you kind of talk about your mindset when you're coming back into the market from 100% cash? We've been through correction. What are you trying to do with your first few positions? How are you judging the traction of those positions to determine if you're going to increase size, try more trades? You know, all of that, I think would be really excellent.
这非常契合大家都想了解的“渐进式投资”的概念。马克，如果你不介意的话，可以回顾一下MU的交易，因为我相信这是你在市场调整后进行的第一笔交易。你能谈谈从市场完全持有现金状态回归时的心态吗？经历了市场调整后，你在开头几笔交易中试图实现什么目标？你是如何判断这些交易的表现来决定是否增加投资规模或者尝试更多交易的？这一切都非常值得深入探讨。
Okay. So I'll start off with, I'm going to give you some guidelines on progressive exposure. And then also I'll let Mark and Brandon also come in on that because they're really great at explaining that and deploying it. So you have to think of progressive exposure on a couple different levels. It's not just position sizing. It's exposure is total exposure. So, for instance, 25% you come into the market with 20, whether it's, let's say it's five stocks at five or one stock at 25%, both times you're 25% invested, right? One time theoretically you have more risk because you have one stock. So you have a single stock risk.
好的，我首先要为你介绍一下逐步曝光的指导原则。接着，我会让马克和布兰登也来分享他们的见解，因为他们在解释和应用这一点上非常出色。我们需要从多个层面来考虑逐步曝光，这不仅仅是调整仓位大小的问题。曝光是指总的曝光程度。比如说，如果你以25%的资金进入市场，不管是投资五只股票，每只5%，还是投资一只股票，25%，你都是25%处于投资状态。不过，在只有一只股票的情况下，你理论上承担了更多的风险，因为你面临单只股票的风险。
Okay. So now there's position sizing. There's that individual risk. So to where you progressively exposed, maybe I start off with 5% positions, but now as things get better, I moved to 10, 15, and I moved the position sizing up. And then there's your number of, your actually number of stocks, which by default is going to happen. But actually, you would think as you're getting more exposed, you have more stocks? No. A lot of times it's just the opposite where for me, I start off with some lighter positions, some smaller positions, and then I start concentrating. As things get going well, now I'm taking bigger positions. So I actually have less actual positions.
好的，现在说说仓位调整和个人风险。你可能一开始会用5%的仓位进场，但随着形势好转，你会逐渐增加仓位，可能增至10%、15%，甚至更多。同时，你的持股数量在这种情况下会自然变化。你可能会认为，随着风险敞口的增加，你会持有更多的股票。其实不然，很多时候正好相反。对我来说，我一开始是持有一些较小的仓位，然后随着形势好转，我会开始集中投资，持有更大的仓位，所以我的持股数量实际上减少了。
So those are your, and I don't know, Mark, did I, Brandon, I leave anything out with progressive exposure? A question. I'll jump up with a question. Sorry. And Brandon, feel free to elaborate on this. I think a common question people have is, are you selling those first smaller positions and then going back in with a bigger position on a new stock, or are you just adding to those first initial positions? I think that's, that's a good clarification question there. Mark, you want to take that as far as adding to a position and talk to me?
所以，这是你们的做法，我不确定，马克，布兰登，我有没有漏掉什么关于逐步加仓的内容？抱歉，我突然想到一个问题。布兰登，你也可以补充。我觉得大家通常会问的问题是，你们是会卖掉初始的小仓位，然后再大笔买入新股票，还是只是对原有仓位进行加仓？我认为这问题需要澄清一下。马克，你能谈谈关于加仓的问题吗？
Yeah, I think the money on its own two feet. Yeah, my examples are perfect one. In the same way that you want to add to a position as it's working as the same way you want to step up exposure in your overall portfolio. And to the specific question, Richard, though, are do you have to take profits in order to buy another name? You can, but you don't have to. And I often, we often don't will lean on those gains in the form of cushion to say, okay, you know, we buy a name, it starts to move. We're going to lean on that a bit to take some more exposure.
是的，我认为资金能够自给自足。我所提供的例子是完美的。这就像在某个投资开始见效时，你想增加仓位一样，也是在你整体投资组合中增加投资的一种方式。关于你提问的具体问题，理查德，你是否必须通过套现盈利来购买另一支股票？你可以这么做，但不是必须的。实际上，我们经常不会这样做，而是把已经获得的收益作为缓冲。换句话说，当我们购买一个股票后，它开始上涨，我们会利用这部分收益来增加投资。
And that's the whole concept of feedback that we were talking about before. When I was saying, if you think of your own trading as the most important of echo chambers, if you will, that's what you want to stay in sync with one of the biggest mistakes people make is they go, well, and the question I get, well, what do you own and how invested are you? Why is that as important as what do you own and how's your trading going? What's going to drive my trading and my exposure is how the positions I'm in are doing.
这就是我们之前谈论过的反馈的整个概念。当我说，如果你把自己的交易视为最重要的回声室时，也许这正是你想要保持同步的地方。人们常犯的一个最大错误是，他们会问，我持有什么资产？我投资了多少？而不是问，你持有什么？你的交易进展如何？会影响我交易和投资的驱动因素是我所持有的仓位表现如何。
It's not, as Mark has often said, if you're 50% invested, it's going horrible. It doesn't make any sense to double up. That's how you get yourself into a disaster. You know, and the whole, you know, start with the end in mind, the whole goal of progressive exposure is to be trading your largest when things are really humming when they're really working. Well, the only way you can do that is to stay in sync with how things are going.
马克经常说，如果你已经有50%的资金投入，并且情况很糟糕，这时候加倍投入是没有任何意义的。这样只会让你陷入困境。要明白的是，为了达到渐进式投资的目标，你需要在市场形势真的很好、行情顺利的时候，才能进行最大规模的交易。而做到这一点的唯一方法就是保持与你所投资的市场情况同步。
So the goal to do really well in the market is to get to whatever strategy you're using is to develop a method or a mechanism that you are trading your largest when you're trading your best and your smallest when you're trading your worst. That is a huge enormous statement that everybody should listen to over and over and over, right? And on the wall and live it every day as a goal because that's how you make the big money in the good markets and you keep it.
在市场上取得出色表现的目标是，无论你使用何种策略，都要建立一种方法或机制，使你在状态最佳时进行最大的交易，而在表现最差时进行最小的交易。这是一个非常重要的理念，应该反复倾听、牢记于心，并将其作为每日目标实现，因为这正是你在良好市场中赚取大钱并保住收益的方式。
All right, so now there's a couple things to talk about here. One is, and this, these are the questions. Mark said, we lean, we're going to lean on those on those profits. Well, now there's open profits, right? And there's closed profits. Those are two completely different things. If you close up trade, well, that now that risk is out of the portfolio. Now you add a new trade. Right. So let's equate it to the crap table.
好的，现在有几件事需要讨论。首先，这里有几个问题。马克说，我们要依靠那些利润。那么，现在有开放的利润，也有封闭的利润。这是两个完全不同的概念。如果你关闭一笔交易，那么那个风险就已经从投资组合中去掉了。然后你可以添加一笔新的交易。可以把它比作掷骰子的桌子。
Right. You've got a bet out there and you have a bet on the six and you hit a six, you make some money. It's still out there. So you say, you know what, I'm doing pretty good. I'll take the eight now and I'm going to buy the four and the 10. Now you've got more exposure. Right. So now if they roll a seven, you lose on all those bets. Right. So you're going to have you have a much bigger draw down. So now you didn't close those out yet. If you close them all out and then you put one bet. Well, now you're financing that new risk.
好的，你在外面下注，并且在六点下注，结果出了六点，你赚了一些钱。这个注还在外面。所以你说：“我做得不错，那我再压八点，然后买四点和十点。” 现在你的风险增加了。对吧？所以如果他们掷出七点，你会在所有这些下注上亏损。这样你就会有更大的亏损。所以，你现在还没有关闭那些注项。如果你把它们全部关闭，然后只下注一个， 那么你就是在为新的风险提供资金。
So you got to think closed versus open. If they're open. Well, you got to watch those carefully because those open trades can move at the same time as those new trades. But if it's closed, you've got a little more leverage, a little more, you know, you have profit in the tank. It's going to be a combination of that. It's never going to be one or the other for very long. And at some point, you know, you've got to make a decision whether I've got the traction that I feel comfortable to push harder.
所以你需要考虑封闭和开放的区别。如果是开放的交易，你需要仔细观察，因为这些开放的交易可能会和新交易同时波动。但是如果是封闭的，你会有更多的杠杆，意味着你已经有了一定的利润。这两者之间会是一个组合，很少会长时间只存在一种状态。最终，你需要决定自己是否获得了足够的稳定性，是否可以更有信心地加大力度。
And that's where we got to look at your worst case scenario. We're always talking about our worst case scenario. What is the worst case scenario? If I get knocked out of everything here, what am I down? And that has to be managed. All this has to be managed. So one thing is what I call the two for one rule. So you're in a stock. Whether it's doing good or bad. Let's just say it's doing bad. It's not doing very good, but it hasn't hit your stock yet.
在这里，我们需要看看你的最坏情况。我们总是在谈论我们的最坏情况。什么是最坏情况呢？如果我在这里被彻底淘汰，我会损失多少？这些情况都需要进行管理。所有这些都需要进行管理。其中有一个我称之为"二得一"的规则。比方说你持有一只股票，无论它表现好还是不好。就拿表现不太好的情况来说，它表现不好，但还没有达到你设置的止损点。
And you got, you got another stock that that's setting up or you have a, you know, even a couple stocks that are not performing too well. So you want to, you want to participate, but you don't want to lever up because why would you add money as Mark said, you're going to add money when things aren't working. So you sell a half of the two positions and you buy a full position in the new stock. So now the stock that's looking the best at the time is getting the most money.
你还有一只正在形成的股票，或者你有几只表现不太好的股票。你想参与其中，但又不想加大投入，因为正如马克所说，如果事情没有起效，你为什么要投入更多资金呢？所以，你卖掉两只股票的一半，然后买入新的股票的整个仓位。这样，目前看起来最好的股票就获得了最多的资金。
The stocks that aren't doing too well are getting reduced and you haven't raised your exposure at all. So that's one technique. There's lots of different techniques that we that we use. They're just permutations or permutations of that concept. Well, and I'll just add, you know, progressive exposure is, you know, one of these topics like, well, we're going to talk about this forever, right.
那些表现不太好的股票正在减少，而你完全没有增加你的投资。所以这就是一种策略。我们使用的策略有很多种，它们只是这个概念的不同变化。我还想补充一点，渐进式投资是一个我们将会永远讨论的话题。
And Mark and myself are continuing to try to get better at this. And I think a lot of people get hung up on. Well, I, I, I got more exposure on. I thought I was being progressive. And, you know, I, I did it wrong. I got stopped out. It's like, well, that happens. That's what's going to happen. Right. And I think what Mark is saying to as far as what is the risk factor that you are willing to take. And as for Mark and myself, as we're seeing getting the feedback and this is taking a long time to get good at this as we get the feedback, we are willing to take that risk number up. So if we're getting the feedback we want to see, we will increase the amount of risk we were willing to take. And I think a lot of people get hung up on that.
马克和我一直在努力提高这方面的能力。我觉得很多人容易困在一个地方。比如说，我得到了更多关注，以为自己在有所进步。结果做错了，被出局了。这是会发生的，也是正常的，对吧？我认为马克说的是你愿意承担多大风险的问题。对我们来说，随着我们得到反馈，这需要很长时间来提高，当我们得到想要的反馈时，我们愿意增加愿意承受的风险。如果我们得到了我们想看到的反馈，我们就会增加我们愿意承担的风险。我想很多人在这一点上容易陷入困境。
And we have to be okay with that, that if we do up the risk and we get our hands slapped when we were wrong, that we're going to take a lot that loss. And so, you know, I think a lot of people think like a progressive exposure, I should just do it when it's only working. It's like, well, it doesn't work every time. Yeah, and in a perfect, what you said was, you know, people get hung up. On a specific answer, they want to know if I'm if it goes to, you know, I take 25% and this stock goes up 10%. I add X percentage. It doesn't really work that way because it's just like poker. It's a texture of the game.
我们必须接受这样的事实：如果我们增加风险并在犯错时受到惩罚，我们需要承担那些损失。很多人可能认为，我们应该只在确定有效时才逐步加大投入。然而，事情并不是总能这么顺利。在理想情况下，人们容易拘泥于某个具体答案，比如说，如果我先投入25%，然后股票上涨10%，我又增加了多少比例。但实际上，事情并不是这样运作的，这就像打扑克一样，是游戏的整体氛围和动态决定的。
Yeah, you got to feel the texture of the game. You're playing poker. And there's a guy on there. That's a really good player. There's a couple fish on the table. And you see how things are going, how aggressive the betting is, and you feel that and is an art to it. And there's the science of the pot odds and the actual percentage of the hand, you have to know that that's the basics, but then there's that feel there's the bluffing factor. There's the factor of of your stack size versus, you know, there's all these things. It's the same thing with trading.
是的，你得感受游戏的节奏。你在打扑克，桌上有一个非常厉害的玩家，也有几个新手。你观察局势的发展，投注的激烈程度，去感受这些，这是一门艺术。当然，也有计算概率和底池赔率的科学基础，掌握这些是基本功。但你还需要感受到直觉、虚张声势的因素，还有你的筹码量相对于其他玩家的情况，等等。这跟做交易是一样的。
So that's why it's beautiful. This is why it's a beautiful business. And the reason why I want to point this out, the reason why there's this awesome opportunity is because they can't all be figured out into a spreadsheet. People want to put this into a spreadsheet. Want to put it into a program. They think AI is going to put everybody out of business. It's nonsense. Absolutely ridiculous. Okay. This is an art. This is no different than you learning how to be a great baseball player. You can learn all about the physics and be in the right angle and in the box and have the bat in the right spot. But the bottom line is you got to you got to have experience.
这就是为什么它如此美丽。这也是为什么这是一项美好的事业。我想强调这一点，因为这里有个绝佳的机会，而这个机会并不能全都用电子表格解决。人们想把它放进电子表格或程序中。他们认为人工智能会让所有人失业。这简直是胡说八道，荒唐至极。这是一门艺术，就像你学习如何成为一名优秀的棒球运动员一样。你可以学习所有的物理知识，站在正确的角度，站在击球区，手握住合适的位置。但最重要的是你需要有经验。
You have to experience is an art to it as well. If it could all be put into a spreadsheet and everything could be figured out. And some algorithm could just run it. Guess what? No return. The market will be 100% efficient and random and the random walk hypothesis would be right. But it's wrong. It's wrong because guys like myself Brandon, Mark, David Ryan, Jesse Livermore, Nicholas Darvis, you name it, David Ryan, it couldn't exist. William O'Neill. We couldn't exist. And it goes on every generation all the way back to the 1800s that there's people that outperformed the market.
你需要去体验，因为这其中也是一门艺术。如果一切都能被放入电子表格中并被完全解析出来，而某个算法就能操控一切。那么你猜会发生什么？没有回报。市场将会变得100%有效且随机，随机漫步假说就会成立。但事实并非如此。因为像我这样的投资者，还有布兰登、马克、大卫·瑞安、杰西·利弗莫尔、尼古拉斯·达维斯，甚至是威廉·奥尼尔，这些人都是市场中能取得超预期表现的人。如果市场真如假说所言，我们这些人就不可能存在。而自19世纪以来，每一代都有这样能够跑赢市场的人。
And the real thing is it's not like a lot of the names don't change. Stanley Druck on Miller's been doing it for 10 decades and decades and decades. I used to advise the Soros group. You know, these guys I, I, I, a young guy that was, I advise back in the 1990s. He became a multi billionaire. Okay. So, so the names don't change. Matter of fact, they seem to get with the guys that are good at this. They have long careers. Excellent. Yeah. I think I think that provides a lot of clarity in terms of progressive exposure. Hopefully that answered a lot of your guys questions.
真正的情况是，很多名字并没有改变。史丹利·德鲁肯米勒已经做了几十年。我曾经为索罗斯集团提供建议。你知道的，这些人中有个年轻人在上世纪90年代我曾经建议过，他后来成为了亿万富翁。所以，这些名字并没有改变。事实上，那些擅长于此的人似乎有非常长的职业生涯。非常好。我认为这在逐步曝光方面提供了很多清晰度。希望这回答了你们很多的问题。
One last question on. It's going to raise questions to a rich. Yeah. We're, we're definitely believe a lot of thought provoking things here that are going to raise a lot of questions. Yeah. But there's resources for that, which is fantastic. What's right? One last chart question. That's why our master trader program is five days now. It started off one day. It just keeps getting longer and longer and longer. But go ahead. I'm sorry.
最后一个问题。这会引发很多富有思想的问题。是的，我们确实相信这里有很多发人深省的内容，会引起很多的疑问。不过，为此我们提供了资源，这非常好。还有一个图表方面的最后问题。这就是为什么我们的高级交易员课程现在是五天的。它最初只有一天，但就是不断地变得越来越长。不过，你继续说，不好意思。
Yeah. No worries. Could you go back to the I bit chart? Because I want to ask about, because I know people are wondering this for the reduced labels. How much are you typically reducing into strength? Is it always 50%? I know you talked about that in your books or does it depend on the situation? So I can speak from me generally speaking and generally what we put on the platform and Mark and Brandon, you guys could speak from your own personal trading, but I tend to operate in like quarter positions and half positions. It's just the way I've done it.
好的，不用担心。你能回到"I 位图"那里吗？因为我想问一下，我知道大家对于减少标签的事情很感兴趣。通常你会将多少比例减少到强度中？是不是一直都是50%？我知道你在书中提到过这个，还是说要根据具体情况来决定？
从我个人的经验出发，以及通常我们在平台上所采用的方法来看，我倾向于使用四分之一或二分之一的仓位。这就是我的操作方式。Mark和Brandon，你们可以从你们各自的交易经验来分享一下。
I tried it different ways and it doesn't seem to make a whole lot of difference if I do thirds, halves and quarters. But certainly, I'm not taking off like 5% 10%. That's more of a mutual fund type strategy. Usually what happens is the stock moves up. I'm taking off enough to either cushion all my risk or cushion half my risk. So, and again, if the stock was up 20% and you got an 8% stop, you could sell a lot less than half to cushion the entire position. Right. So depending on how much it goes up depends how much I'm going to sell versus where my stop is. So if I want to finance risk, so I'm generally in quarter position, half positions and full positions and overweight are usually, you know, one and a quarter, one and a half, two times.
我尝试过不同的方法，但发现无论是分成三分之一、二分之一还是四分之一，效果都不是差别很大。但我肯定不会像做共同基金那样只减持5%或10%。通常情况下，股票上涨时，我会卖出足够的份额来完全或者部分抵消风险。这样，如果股票上涨了20%，而止损设在8%，那么你可能只需要卖出不到一半的份额就能覆盖整个仓位的风险。对我来说，要卖多少取决于股票上涨的幅度以及止损的设置。所以，如果我想管理风险，我一般分为四分之一、二分之一和全部仓位，增持的话通常是1.25倍、1.5倍或2倍。
But when I go overweight, I usually go heavy. I usually go pretty heavy on an overweight. Like I'll double my position. If I've got, let's just say it's a 20% and I go to a 40% position, I'm probably not going to hold overnight or at least I'm going to take some off. If I'm just looking for that thing to get some gas and give me a little return, take a little off finance a little that'll finance me overnight. And if I get a little more, take a little more off and that'll finance my risk for the whole full position. So always look into to finance my risk finance my risk.
当我加仓时，我通常会大幅增加。通常，我会大幅增加仓位，比如将仓位从20%增加到40%。在这种情况下，我可能不会持仓过夜，或者至少会部分减仓。如果我只是想要这个投资有一点增长，并给我带来一点回报，我会先减掉一部分，以便为过夜融资。如果获得更多收益，我会再减掉一部分，以此为整个位的风险融资。因此，我总是考虑如何为我的风险融资。
I'm trying to get into this is again, this is really. This has been my whole life's work and Paul Tudor Jones is really one of the main people responsible responsible for me being so stickler on my risk, but Larry height really took it like to another level, not with giving me any techniques, but just with his absolute discipline and passion for improving that worst case scenario and creating asymmetric leverage. We had so many discussions. I'm so fortunate to be friends with these market wizards who I idolized when I was your age. And now they're my stand wide stands a good friend of mine Larry Heights, a great friend of mine. I talked to him all the time. We talk regularly. And just it's just wonderful because I we I learn, you know, I learn and I get these these great insights from guys that have been doing it even, you know, 20, 30 years longer than me and I've been doing it for 40.
我正在努力重新进入这个领域，这真的是我一生的工作。保罗·都铎·琼斯是让我对风险管理如此严格的主要人物之一，但拉里·海特在这方面更进一步。他没有给我任何具体的技巧，而是用他的严格纪律和对改善最坏情况及创造不对称杠杆的热情深深影响了我。我们进行了很多讨论。我很幸运能够与这些我年少时崇拜的市场巫师成为朋友。现在他们成为了我生活中的挚友。拉里·海特就是我的好朋友之一，我们经常聊天。我感到非常幸福，因为我能从这些在市场中活跃了更长时间的人那里学习到宝贵的见解，他们中的一些人已经从事这个行业超过我20到30年，而我已经做了40年。
Yeah, excellent. Mark Richie or Brandon, did you have anything to add with regards to selling a restraint? How much you guys typically do it or also the concept of going a little bit overweight in the position as well. Not much differently, you know, honestly, we sort of cut from the same cloth, but yeah, as a general rule, sort of thirds or halves. You know, if we're if it's a position we want to play for a bigger move. We generally don't sell more than half. And then, you know, as Mark was saying, the most important thing, you know, in terms of even going overweight or getting more aggressively long like he said, if you the more concentrated you are the more overnight risk you're carrying so you have to be thinking in terms of like, how do you, you know, manage that worst case scenario.
好的，非常好。Mark Richie或Brandon，你们有关于出售限制方面需要补充的吗？你们通常如何操作这类事情，或者考虑在某个头寸上稍微超配的想法。
其实差不多，我们的方式基本一样，总的来说，我们通常采取三分之一或二分之一的策略。如果我们想在某个头寸上追求更大的涨幅，我们通常不会出售超过一半的头寸。而且，就像Mark所说的，最重要的是，无论是超配还是更积极的长线投资，你投入得越多，就承担越多的隔夜风险，因此必须考虑如何管理最糟糕的情况。
What do you come for with holding overnight. So if we're going to get really aggressive in one name, we're going to be really cognizant of that. And then, you know, be more likely to reduce a little bit faster because we're not going to carry. You know, for us, anything over a 20, 25% position would be considered overweight or not usually carrying more than say 30% overnight in any one name. Yeah, notice did you notice the entire time that we've all been talking that we almost exclusively have been talking about risk. And no matter what question you ask it all roads lead back to risk management. And that that's the yeah, that's the bottom line and that's what we just work at becoming better and better and better and better at.
你想要表达的意思是：“我们为什么会选择持有隔夜仓位呢？所以，如果我们对某个特定股票变得非常积极，我们会非常谨慎。这样一来，我们可能会更倾向于更快地减少仓位，因为我们不打算过多持有。对于我们来说，任何超过20%到25%的仓位都被视为过重，通常不会在一个股票上隔夜持有超过30%。你注意到没有，其实整个过程中我们一直在讨论风险。无论你问什么问题，所有的答案最终都指向了风险管理。这就是重点，也是我们不断努力去提高的方向。”
And if you read the market wizards books, everything comes back to risk they all mentioned risk management as one of the keys. Yeah, I said it in my book I don't know I don't remember what book or where I said it but I remember I said it but Jack swagger when he had interviewed me for market wizards he came in and he threw his tape recorder on and we talked for hours and hours and hours and he sighed and he took his record he turned it off and he said Mark this is all great but this is what they all say he's like this is what. Everybody says all I've already written several market wizards book and they all say the same thing I said Jack I hate to tell you but there's a reason why this is what they say and I'm sorry but this is what I this is how I do it too you know there's that's right.
如果你读过《市场奇才》系列书籍，你会发现所有的话题最终都会回到风险管理上。他们都提到了风险管理是关键之一。是的，我在我的书中也说过类似的话，但我不记得是哪本书或者在哪个地方说过，不过我确实记得我提到过。Jack Schwager采访我为《市场奇才》撰稿时，他进来后放下录音机，我们聊了好几个小时。他最后叹了口气，关掉录音机对我说：“Mark，这些很棒，但他们都是这么说的。”他说：“每个人都这么说，我已经写了好几本《市场奇才》的书，而他们都说一样的话。”我对Jack说：“我不想这样告诉你，但的确有理由让他们这么说。我很抱歉，但这就是我做事情的方式，也是对的。”
There's a reason why and why it while it may be boring. You know I remember Jack telling me that day he said you know I really. My market wizards books have been really successful but I'd like to write one that people would like to sit on the beach and read it like almost like a novel I said I said I said Jack that's not going to happen. People are reading these books to read about the masters and how they did it and they want tools and yeah they want stories too but yeah it was it was a fun conversation that we had. I went right back to talking about risk and cutting losses. Only the most committed traders are reading that at the beach and I think there's definitely a lot in the audience who do that.
这段话的大意是：有一个原因说明为什么有时候事情虽然无聊，但依然有它的意义。我记得那天Jack告诉我说，他的《市场巫师》这本书非常成功，但是他希望能写一本人们可以在海滩上像读小说一样享受的书。我对他说，这恐怕不太可能。人们阅读这些书主要是为了了解大师们的方法，寻找工具，当然他们也想要听故事。这是一段有趣的对话，我又回到了讨论风险和止损的话题。只有最专注的交易者会在海滩上阅读这类书，我相信确实有不少人会这么做。
Brandon did you have anything to add as well or cut from the same cloth. Yeah no definitely but you know I was always taught early on in life that risk is bad and I think when you really calculate risk risk is an opportunity. I think when you you know I like what Mark just said my job what I'm trying to do is understand all the risks and get better at it. And I think you know if you do that there's a lot of opportunity out in the world. Perfect. You said you had nothing to add and then there's that gem that you just provided so thank you so much for that. Mark Richie did you have something to add on that or. Oh you disagree cool.
布兰登，你有没有什么要补充的，或者感觉“半斤八两”的？是的，当然有。但是你知道，我从小就被教导风险是不好的，不过我认为如果你仔细计算风险，风险实际上也是一种机会。我喜欢刚刚马克说的话，我的工作就是努力去了解所有的风险，并提高应对能力。我认为，如果你这样做，世界上会有很多机会。太好了。你说你没有什么可补充的，然后竟然给出了这样一个宝贵的看法，非常感谢你。马克·里奇，你对此有何补充吗？哦，你不赞同，不过也好。
Mark did did you have any other charge to share or should we. No I didn't even know I was sharing charts until the last minute so sorry about that but. Well I think everybody really value you walking through that I know I got something out of it so they're all going to look very similar you know that's the thing we rinse and repeat you know. Certainly people will show the losses. The losses are really the most absolute most boring because basically we just buy the stock and if it goes down we sell it real quick. You know it's really this not a whole lot to show.
马克，你还有其他图表要分享吗？还是我们...？不，我直到最后一刻才知道我需要分享图表，所以为此感到抱歉。但是，我觉得大家都很重视你所讲解的内容，我自己也有所收获。你知道的，这些图表看起来都非常相似，因为我们总是重复同样的过程。当然，人们会展示亏损的情况。这些亏损真的非常无聊，因为基本上我们只是买入股票，如果股价下跌，我们就快速卖掉。真的没什么特别好展示的。
Sometimes we sell them before they hit the stop if there's a lot of what I call violations that's what you have up here actually this is this is what's called model that we have a module in our platform that monitors the stock and looks at confirmations versus violations which are basically programmed by me what I would look at and with my own eyes and then tells you. Where you're getting with this one set on what we call no nose. No nose after you buy so once you buy we don't want to see many of these red lines and you'll see there's very little here after the buy and then there starts to be a bunch of them and that's where we want to we want to lay off.
有时候，如果我发现很多我所称的“违规”现象，我们会在股票触及止损位之前卖出。实际上，这就是我们在这里看到的情况。我们的平台有一个模块，可以监控股票，并检查确认和违规。这些条件是由我编程设置的，类似于我用肉眼会关注的因素，然后系统会告诉你。我们会设定一个条件，叫做"不良信号"。购入股票后，我们不希望看到过多这些红色线条。你会注意到，在买入股票之后，这些红线非常少，但随后开始出现很多，这就是我们想要卖出的时机。
So then after the buy you know I could even right here you see there's very few it's acting right but then as it starts to not act right you start to see the no nose coming in here. So these are just basically a sort of like you know a gauge of that would be looking at it like I look with my own eyes. Sort of a shortcut function and then you could you could hover over them. It'll tell you which ones are triggering. So you know again this is what we call the fab for a panel here that has the the indicators that will tell you sort of what I'm looking at just to get you in the right direction.
在购买之后，你可以看到这里有很少的产品表现正常。但是当它们开始不正常时，你会看到一些警示出现。这些警示基本上就像我用肉眼观察一样，给你一个直观的判断。它们是一种捷径功能，你可以鼠标悬停在上面，就会显示哪些指标被触发。这就是我们所说的“fab四重奏面板”，上面有一些指标，可以告诉你我在关注的方向，以帮助你找到正确的方向。
So you're looking at a small track if if these this panel is in line it's hard to get too far of track unless you're arguing with the market. Excellent and I'll point I'll ask you guys kind of key resources and tools like that. And just a second that people can take advantage of. But first I want to ask this question I thought it was a pretty good one hopefully you guys agree as well. But for everybody watching if you had to give them one exercise to help them improve their trading one assignment exercise.
所以，如果这些小组成员是一致的，那么这个方向就不会偏离太多，除非你和市场争论。不错，我会请你们指出一些关键的资源和工具，供他人利用。不过首先，我想问一个我认为不错的问题，希望你们也同意。对于所有的观众，如果你要给他们一个练习来帮助他们提升交易能力，你会给他们什么作业或练习？
And we talked very very early on about post analysis how important that is to go through all their trades and maybe it's something in that vein. But maybe starting with Brandon if you had to give them one exercise that you think would help them improve their trading improve their chart I risk management whatever it is. What would it kind of be do you think. That's a good question. Which I was more prepared to answer it. You know, obviously, you know, tracking your trades. If you're not doing that I just don't know how you're going to get better.
我们很早就讨论过后期分析有多重要，这个过程需要仔细查看他们所有的交易，也许与此有关。如果要给他们一个练习，你认为能帮助他们提高交易水平、改进图表或风险管理的练习，你会建议什么？这个问题挺好的，希望我能更充分地准备来回答。显然，如果你不记录自己的交易，我不知道你要怎么提高自己的水平。
You know, knowing what you've done is the best teacher like we've talked about prior. So without that I just don't, you know, if you're doing that, great, then develop a process where that's repeatable where you continue to do it. And then, you know, judge the results. Are you getting better. Perfect. Mark Richie, do you have anything to add? Oh, you're in mute, I believe. We covered, you know, a few of those things but the other thing I would add maybe at least seems to be popular is just shut off the noise.
你知道，正如我们之前讨论过的，了解你所做过的事情是最好的老师。所以如果你已经在这么做，那就太好了，继续完善一个可以重复的过程，让你持续地进行下去。然后，评估一下结果：你是否在进步？太好了。马克·里奇，你还有什么要补充的吗？哦，你好像静音了。我们已经讨论了一些，但我想再加一点，至少这种观点很受欢迎，就是要关闭那些干扰。
Take the indexes off your screen, take Twitter off your screen, take all that other crap off your screen. Follow your rules. Stay in your lane and don't pay attention to anything else and do it for a year, not a day or a week. And then come back to me or you and tell us how it's gone. And I think most people be shocked. How much better they do if they did that versus, you know, listening to all the, all the noise and nonsense out there. Excellent. And Mark, I know you've got some good, good tasks for everybody, I'm sure.
把你的屏幕上的指数去掉，把Twitter去掉，把那些其他乱七八糟的东西全都去掉。遵循你的规则，专注于自己的事情，不要关注其他任何事情，坚持做一年，而不是一天或一周。然后再回过头来告诉我或者你自己，看看效果如何。我认为大多数人会非常惊讶，如果他们这样做的话，效果会比听取外界的噪音和胡言乱语好得多。太好了。马克，我知道你一定有一些很棒的任务要给大家。
Yeah, I mean, look, when I first start working with somebody, if I was a work one on one with you and coach you as a trader, particularly back when I was running hedge funds and I had guys come work for me. I would narrow them down to just a very small number of parameters. Like I would only allow them to trade a certain. A certain area of relative strength, a certain price pattern and say, look, you're going to trade this one price pattern in this RS with these characteristics and you can't go outside that until you can trade that you're not going outside those parameters to really get someone focused because there's so much noise.
是的，我的意思是，当我刚开始和别人合作时，比如如果我与你一对一地合作并指导你作为一名交易员，特别是在我经营对冲基金并有员工为我工作的时候，我会将他们的注意力缩小到很少的几个参数上。比如，我只允许他们交易特定的领域，一个特定的相对强弱指标和价格模式，并告诉他们：“你将只在这种相对强弱指标的价格模式中进行交易，直到你熟练掌握为止。在此之前你不能超出这些参数。”这样做是为了让他们真正集中注意力，因为市场中有太多干扰。
There's so many things again, indicators, all these indicators. I'm showing you some gauges that we have here. And I was very reluctant to even produce these because I don't use any indicators. I use no indicators whatsoever. But we did indicators in a very different way. If you even want to call them indicators, I call them gauges. We did them where they're really looking at the stocks. They're not like this. They're kind of biased. They're kind of biased indicators. They're built around me and how I look at the stock and it's amazing that we could even program this.
有很多东西需要注意，很多都是指标，各种各样的指标。我给你们展示一些我们这里用的“量表”。其实我之前非常不愿意制作这些东西，因为我自己完全不使用任何指标。我一点都不使用所谓的指标。不过我们以非常不同的方式来做这些“指标”。如果你愿意称它们为“指标”的话，其实我更愿意称之为“量表”。这些“量表”实际上是在关注股票的表现。它们并不是纯粹的指标，有点偏向性的感觉。它们是根据我的观点和看法来设计的，我觉得能够将这种方式编程出来真的很棒。
I didn't think we were going to be able to, but we were able to do it very effectively. So this focuses you like these gauges do that. If you're sticking with when they have certain readings and I have those recommendations for our members that you have these certain readings, you're automatically focused in a specific area and you can't trade outside it. So that's sort of what I'm gearing our whole platform around. Now, they're not going to, for a value buyer, these are not going to work.
我一开始以为我们做不到，但实际上我们做得很好。这就像这些仪表一样，它们让你专注于某个点。当你坚持这些特定的读数时，我给我们的会员提供了这些读数的建议，你就会自动聚焦在某个特定领域，不能在此之外进行交易。这就是我对整个平台的设计思路。不过，对于价值买家来说，这些方法可能不适用。
See, like a stochastic or some of these other indicators are sort of agnostic. You know, you can use them oversold over, but not my gauges. My gauges are built around me and what Mark Minner Vinnie sees through his eyes. These, these things are like looking like me and we're actually using AI now to enhance that and to look at the charts like Mark Minner Vinnie looks at them. So you could use them in all different ways. It's just the way we decided to do it for those who want to trade like I trade and learn my strategy.
你看，类似随机指标之类的工具本身是中立的。你可以在超卖或超买的情况下使用它们，但我所用的指标并不是这样的。我的指标是根据我个人以及Mark Minner Vinnie通过他自己的视角所看到的情况来设计的。这些工具看起来就像我的方法，而且我们现在实际上在使用人工智能来增强这一点，以便像Mark Minner Vinnie那样查看图表。所以你可以用各种不同的方式使用它们。我们选择这种做法是为了那些想像我一样交易并学习我策略的人准备的。
So I would narrow down to a very specific, you know, say, whatever the parameters are and really just filter it down. So you're only looking at a very small number of names or screens or people are screening. And all these screens, they got 500 names and there's, you know, wonder why you're confused and you can't do well. You can't buy everything. You know, how many stocks can even buy. You can only buy a couple. So, and you got to get used to letting a lot of pitches go by.
所以，我会把范围缩小到一个非常具体的标准，然后真的就把它过滤到只看非常少的名字或筛选的人。因为很多这类筛选一开始就有500个名字，然后你会疑惑为什么感到混乱，为什么做得不好。你不能买下所有东西，你知道吧？你能买的股票数量是有限的，你只能买几个。因此，你必须习惯于错过很多机会。
You know, it's, and that's the way you do it. You know, that's the way you do it. You get your narrow your universe down. And you say, Hey, you know, and there's a good, there's a good book. I forget what it's called. It's by Ted Williams, but it talks about it shows a box. I'm going to put this in my next book. But it shows his box and sort of his sweet spot of where he liked the pitches and Mark says this all the time. If I'm seeing the ball that balls coming into my strike zone.
你知道的，那就是做事情的方法。你把自己的目标缩小，然后说，嘿，你知道的，有一本好书，我忘了书名，是由特德·威廉姆斯写的。书中展示了一个方框，代表了他喜欢的击球点。我会在我下一本书中提到这个。这个框表示他最喜欢的投球位置。马克总是说这句话：如果我看到球进入了我的击球区。
You know, we've got a very narrow strike zone, you know, and we're only swinging at those pitches that come in that at that zone. You've got to condition yourself to do that, or you're never going to have a strategy. You're going to be all over the place buying everything. Listen to every tip that comes on TV and trying all these different things. You got to narrow down. You've got to get focused. And that's the real key.
你知道，我们的打击区非常窄，我们只会对进入这个区域的球挥棒。你必须训练自己这样做，否则你永远不会有一个明确的策略。否则，你会到处乱买，听信电视上的每一个建议，尝试各种不同的东西。你需要缩小范围，专注于关键点。这才是真正的关键。
And then as they said, you know, Mark, Mark said one of the best things you could say advice you can give is to get the indexes, everything off your screen, trade the stocks. And as Brandon said, do the post analysis, go in there, look at the trades, see what you're doing. That's your best teacher, but do it in a very narrow, a very narrow set of parameters to start off with and do that for a while. You have for at least a year or two. You should be able to double your account first.
他们说，马克提到的一句很好的建议就是，把指数和其他东西从你的屏幕上移开，专注于交易个股。正如布兰登所说，要进行交易后的分析，去查看你的交易记录，了解自己在做什么。这是你最好的老师，但要在一个非常狭窄的参数范围内开始，并坚持一段时间，至少一年或两年。你应该能够首先让你的账户翻倍。
I mean, you tell me, I could only, you say Mark, you could only trade 98 and 99 relative strength stocks that are 5% from their highs. I won't make money. You give me those, but you give me any parameters. I don't care what they are. You give me any parameters. I'll make money. I'll figure out how to make money in that narrow window.
我的意思是，你告诉我，我只能交易相对强度为98和99、距离最高点5%的股票，我可能赚不到钱。你给我这些限制条件，但不管你给我什么参数，我都不在乎。只要你给我任何参数，我都能赚到钱。我会找出在这个狭窄范围内赚钱的方法。
And there'll be long stretches of time where I won't participate because nothing sets up for me, but that's what you have to get used to because that's precisely what it means to have a strategy. It pairs a time where you got to sit back and you got to let others take their turn and then you get your turn and you may and you make as much as you can when it's your turn.
这段时间里，我可能会长时间不参与，因为没有适合我的机会，但这正是你需要习惯的，因为这就是拥有策略的意义所在。它意味着有时你需要退一步，让别人去尝试，然后轮到你时，你就抓住机会，尽可能多地取得收获。
And when it's not your turn, that's if you got to learn to sit on your hands, what I call sit out power and not lose your money. Not lose what you made. Excellent. A lot of gold and that's like it's there and that focus. Yeah, I'll mention this. I wanted to also talk about one of the, yeah, sorry, I'm sorry. I wanted to not only talk about the Master Trader program, but I want to talk about my birthday bash before I forget.
当轮到你不该出手时，你需要学习如何按捺住自己，我称之为“坐等的力量”，这样你就不会赔钱，不会失去已经赚到的东西。这非常重要，就像金子一样珍贵，需要专注去把握。对了，我想提一下，我不仅想谈谈大师交易员课程，还想在忘记之前聊聊我的生日庆祝活动。
Yeah, I wanted to give that invite to everybody, but go ahead. I'm sorry. No, I was just going to say one of the key changes I made in my trading was I limited my daily buy list to three stocks. I, you know, three years ago, I would have 15 names in there, which I'm trying to watch and. The talked about the range of alerts and all that and limiting to to three really helped me that focus really helped me execute better, manage risk better get tighter entries all of that.
好的，我本来是想把这个邀请给大家的，不过没关系。抱歉，我就说一下，我在交易中做的一个关键改变是把每天关注的买入股票列表限制到三个。三年前，我的列表里有15个名字，我要盯着它们。这次讨论了各种提醒范围等等，把数量限制到3个真的帮到了我。这个专注让我执行得更好，风险管理得更好，切入点也掌握得更精准。
So I would I would double down on that focus. I think that's a golden nugget so thank you very much for that. And I was going to ask you, which leads into this, what resources, you know, given what people learned today, if they want to learn more where can they go to to learn more and. And yeah, learn more about from you guys.
所以我会更加专注于这一点。我认为这是一条非常宝贵的建议，非常感谢你。我本来想问你，这也引出了下一个问题，鉴于大家今天学到的内容，如果他们想了解更多信息，可以去哪儿获取更多知识？是的，并且了解更多你们提供的信息。
Let me say a couple of things. First is that there's more resources than ever, and it's an amazing time to be a stock trader. It's an amazing time to be a human being. There's lots of crazy things happening in the world due to technology, but there's a lot of wonderful things. So there's, we didn't have, when I first started, was it a master trader program, although eventually I went to the O'Neill seminar, which was pivotal for me, but we were going to the library.
让我来说几点。首先，现在的资源比以往任何时候都多，对于股票交易者来说，这是一个令人惊叹的时期。对每一个人来说，这都是一个美好的时代。虽然因为科技的发展，世界上发生了很多精彩的事情，也有一些令人感到疯狂的变化。比如，当我刚开始时，没有像“大师交易者”这样的课程，虽然后来我参加了对我来说关键的 O'Neill 研讨会，但那时我们要去图书馆学习。
I was going to the library reading crappy books about strategies that never worked in the first place. So it took me a lot of time. That's why it took me six years. I had to figure this shit out by myself. I was graphing the stocks on graph paper by hand in the beginning, which some people can't believe, but in standing outside a brokerage account to go in and check the quotes, because I didn't have quotes.
我以前常去图书馆，读了一堆从一开始就不管用的策略方面的烂书。这花掉了我很多时间。这就是为什么我花了六年才搞明白。我一开始的时候用手工在图纸上画股票图表，这让有些人难以置信，而且还得站在证券公司的门外去查看报价，因为我自己没有实时价格。
So crazy, crazy things that I went through, the commitments, and then of course, Brandon selling his car, we've all made these sacrifices to get to where we need to get here. So the resources are fantastic. The problem is that there's information overload now. There's a lot of self-proclaimed experts that are turkeys in a strong wind, maybe have a good year, and they think they're ready to teach the world.
这段话的意思是：经历了许多疯狂的事情和各种承诺，当然还有像Brandon卖车这样的牺牲，大家都为了达到目标而努力。资源很丰富，但问题是现在信息过载。很多所谓的专家就像顺风而行的火鸡，可能有好的一年，就觉得自己可以教导全世界。
So you have to be very careful of who you're listening to, because there's so much information and so many people to listen to. Obviously I'm biased to my strategy. I think we've proven ourselves over 40 years of my own results, 15 years, these guys, US investing championships, thousands of people around the world. I've got a very solid platform of based on fundamentals.
所以你需要非常注意自己在听谁的意见，因为有太多的信息和太多的人可以听取意见。显然，我对自己的策略有偏爱。我觉得我们在过去40年的我自己的成绩、15年的团队经验，以及美国投资锦标赛，还有全球成千上万的人中，证明了自己。我有一个非常扎实的基于基本面的平台。
O'Neill, his books are homogenous with mine. The Market Wizards books are always great to read for inspiration and to learn about how they're some of the greatest traders, particularly the first Market Wizard book is wonderfully up Walter Jones in there. These are going back to my lineage. So there's tons of information, tons of information, but you got a guard from information overload.
奥尼尔的书和我的书风格相似。《市场奇才》系列书籍总是很适合用来寻找灵感，并了解一些最顶尖交易者的经历，尤其是第一本《市场奇才》书，非常精彩，里面还有沃尔特·琼斯的故事。这些是我知识传承的一部分。因此，这些书中有大量的信息，但你需要注意防止信息过载。
I think that if you read my books and O'Neill's books, you don't really have to go anywhere else. You might add a couple of other books on psychology. You don't really need any more than that. Everything's right there. You're probably going to dilute and start to go outside the strategy. And then there's other strategies that I can't recommend on if you wanted to have value when you're doing a strategy that was more of a maybe a Warren Buffett strategy, a Benjamin Graham strategy. I know nothing about that, so I couldn't give any advice on that, but that's another way to do it.
我认为，如果你看了我的书和奥尼尔的书，基本上就不需要去找其他的了。你可能再加几本关于心理学的书籍就行了。除此之外，你不需要太多。所有的信息都在那里了。如果读太多其他的书，可能会让你的策略变得不够集中。还有一些策略，比如说沃伦·巴菲特或本杰明·格雷厄姆的策略，我对此不太了解，所以无法提供建议，但这也是一种选择。
But my advice is to commit to one of the ways that makes sense to you and matches your goals and your risk tolerance. That's the main thing is your risk tolerance. You could have one strategy that says you got to hold through a 50% decline. Well, you may not be okay with that. That was never okay with me. I tried it and I felt like my stomach was bleeding. I was going to get an ulcer. I said, I'm not doing this to get sick. I'm almost to make money and to have success. I just couldn't go through the drawdown.
我的建议是，选择一种适合你、与你的目标和风险承受能力相匹配的方式，并坚持下去。最重要的是你的风险承受能力。有的策略可能要求你在资产缩水50%的情况下坚持持有，但也许你无法接受这种风险，我自己就从不能接受。我试过这样做，结果感觉压力大得像胃在流血，好像要得胃溃疡。我心想，我不是来遭罪的，我是要赚钱并取得成功。经历这种大幅回撤，我实在承受不了。
So I came to this strategy because of the risk aversion. I think Mark and Brandon are similar in that way, where the risk aversion was the attraction to this strategy. But there's lots of strategies. There's lots of resources out there. Of course, let me just say two things real quick. Master trader program, of course, this is our 14th or 15th year, right? 2010, yeah, 15th year. Going to be online in November. It's five days of curriculum, or actually four days of curriculum, one day of live trading. And then we do Q&A days during the week, I think two this year.
我选择这个策略是因为我倾向于规避风险。我觉得马克和布兰登在这方面很相似，他们之所以被这个策略吸引，也是因为规避风险的原因。不过，有很多策略和资源可以选择。我想简单提两点。首先，我们的“交易大师课程”已经举办了14或15年，准确来说是第15年，因为我们从2010年开始的。这次课程将在11月在线上进行，总共有五天，其中四天是课程学习，一天是实盘交易。我们计划在这周安排两次问答环节。
So it's actually seven days. But the thing I wanted to point out to everybody is, for our members, if you're a come to the master trader program or you're an MPA member, we have a gala now. Once a year, you come and we all get together. All the clients from around the world. And we exchange ideas and we have special guests. It's just a wonderful, awesome day that we all get together and have fun together and learn.
所以实际上是七天。但是我想告诉大家的是，对于我们的会员，如果你是参加大师交易员项目或是MPA会员，我们现在每年都会举办一次盛会。来自世界各地的所有客户都会聚集在一起。我们交流想法，还有特别嘉宾。这是一个美妙的日子，大家聚在一起，一起玩乐，一起学习。
Well, this year coming up, my birthday, my 60th birthday, is in January. So we move the gala to January 18th, because on the 19th, I took the house of blues, the entire house of blues in Myrtle Beach. I've got a national band coming, which I'm going to be playing drums with the band. We're going to have, I don't know, five, six, hundred people, maybe even more. Clients are common friends, family. So if you're a client of mine, you're welcome to come to the bash. I want everybody at the birthday bash. I wanted to do this when I was 50 and I didn't, I regretted it.
好的，今年即将到来的生日是我的60岁生日，定在一月份。因此，我们把庆祝活动移到了1月18日，因为在1月19日，我租下了整个迈尔特尔海滩的蓝调之家。我请来了一个全国知名的乐队，我会和他们一起打鼓。我估计会有五百、六百，甚至更多的人参加，包括客户、共同的朋友和家人。所以如果你是我的客户，非常欢迎你来参加这个派对。我希望大家都能来参加我的生日派对。我本想在50岁时就这样做，但没有实现，一直很后悔。
So now I'm going to do it when I'm 60, because God knows if I'm going to be here when I'm 70. So just wanted to give that invite also. Yeah, fantastic. No, excellent. The last question I want to kind of close things out today, and first of all, I want to, I think, all three of you guys for being here, I think you guys have all shared a lot of gold nuggets, so thank you very much.
所以现在我打算在60岁时去做，因为谁知道我能不能活到70岁。所以我也想邀请大家。太棒了，真的很棒。今天最后一个问题之前，首先我要感谢你们三位的到来，我认为你们都分享了很多宝贵的见解，非常感谢。
My last question is this, what kind of final piece of advice would you give everybody watching this? What kind of, what final piece of wisdom? And this could be trading or also life related, however you'd like to take the question. And Mark Britchee, I'll start with you, not to put you on the spot or anything. Oh, he may be frozen, naturally.
我的最后一个问题是，你能给正在观看的所有人什么样的最终建议？这可以是关于交易的，也可以是生活相关的，随便你怎么回答。Mark Britchee，我先从你开始，不是想给你压力哦。哦，他可能是卡住了。
Hey, see? Yeah, Brandon, we'll go to you. Hopefully Mark's able to come back. Yeah, sure. So for me, obviously, this master trader program changed my life. Yeah, it seemed like a lot of money at the time, but man, has it paid many, many, many, many multiples of that? So I can't, obviously, I get to work with Mark every day so that I might be a little biased, but if I wasn't working with Mark, I'd still be a client at MTP, because Mark is such a great coach and I believe in that.
嗨，看到了吗？是的，布兰登，我们请你来发言。希望马克能够回来。没错，对我来说，这个大师交易员项目显然改变了我的人生。当时看起来像是很多钱，但天啊，它的回报远远超过了投入的多倍。所以显然，我每天都能与马克共事，这可能让我有些偏爱，但即便我不与马克共事，我也仍然会是MTP的客户，因为马克是个非常出色的指导，我对此深信不疑。
But this idea of everybody overestimates what they can do in two years and underestimates what they can do in 10, like that to me, that's my life. And it takes a while for you to understand that and get that, but that's what I would say. Invest for a decade into learning this approach for us. Like Mark said, there's a bunch of different things out there, but you got to invest the time. You get in what you put out.
每个人往往高估自己在两年内能做的事情，而低估自己在十年内能取得的成就。这种想法对我来说，就是我的人生观。理解和接受这一点需要时间，但这是我想说的。投入十年时间来学习这种方法。就像马克说的，有很多不同的途径存在，但你必须投入时间。付出多少，就收获多少。
And yes, I sacrificed by selling my car, but I also sacrificed many other things to get to where I am today. So there is a cost and sometimes it's friends and leisure time, which I sacrificed, but it's been worth it. So perfect. I was engaged several times in the game. And once I was, how to go from for 14 years, I was engaged for five years. And every one of them said, you love your work more than, more than any, which to a certain extent, at the time was true.
是的，我确实通过卖掉我的车做出了牺牲，但为了达到今天的成就，我还牺牲了很多其他东西。有些代价是朋友和休闲时间，我为此付出了这些，但结果是值得的。完全没错。我投入（事业）多次，并曾经忙碌了14年。而且我参与其中长达五年。每一个人都说，你更爱你的工作，这在当时某种程度上确实是事实。
And so I sacrificed a lot too. I delayed having children. I delayed a lot of things to put my full time into trading. And really my whole life went into this. And even to this day, writing books, it's a lot. It's a lot to write a book. And my advice would be the mindset side is really important. I wrote the mindset book because that's really the most important part for a lot of people because, I mean, if you grow up wealthy and you grow up in a family, you're privileged, you know what? You've got a big handicap, you feel entitled. And that's a handicap. And if you grow up poor, you grow up with a handicap, you feel unentitled and you feel, and you have a poverty mentality. Both sides create challenges. And mentally, that's what it comes down to. Because this is a very, very difficult profession. It's even difficult as a hobby. And so I think the mindset is the most important.
所以我也牺牲了很多。我推迟了生孩子的计划，推迟了很多事情，把全部时间都投入到交易中。实际上，我的整个生活都投入在这件事情上。直到今天，写书也是一件非常消耗精力的事情。写一本书真的需要付出很多努力。我的建议是，心态方面真的很重要。我写了关于心态的书，因为对许多人来说，这确实是最重要的部分。成长于富裕家庭的人可能会感到一种优越感，这反而成了一种障碍。而在贫穷环境中长大的人则可能会有一种自卑感或贫穷思维，这同样是一种障碍。两种情况都会带来各种挑战。最终，这些问题都归结到心态上。因为这是一份非常非常困难的职业，甚至如果当作业余爱好也很难。因此，我认为心态是最重要的。
And you know, you definitely read my mindset book because that book was written as much from the heart and as much research and as much personal experience that I could ever give. And I think that's the most important element that will get you to where you need to get. Excellent. Thank you very much, Mark and Mark Ritchie. I don't know if you heard the question, you try to duck out. No, I got to go ahead. I'm not sure what happened there. But yeah, I did hear the question. I'll just add, look, you know, look, I think the market still provides a great opportunity, you know, an opportunity for people to have, yeah, life-changing results. But yeah, you've got to find, you know, for lack of a better word, a process, a strategy and possibly even, you know, a coach to get you there.
你知道的，你肯定读过我的心态书，因为那本书是我从心底、通过尽量多的研究和个人经验写成的。我认为这是让你达到目标的最重要元素。非常好，非常感谢你，马克和马克·里奇。我不知道你是否听到了问题，你试图回避。不，我收到了，没问题。我不太确定刚才发生了什么，但我确实听到了问题。我想补充一点，我认为市场依然提供了很好的机会，一种可以带来改变人生结果的机会。但是，你需要找到一个流程、一种策略，或者可能还需要一个教练来帮助你实现目标。
But yeah, I think, look, we're living proof of that, Mark's living proof of that. And the success stories will continue to be there. And it's a really rewarding business at the end of the day. And so, but you have to treat it like that. So yeah, that would be my piece of advice. Perfect. Well, I just want to thank you guys one more time for being here. I really, really enjoyed this. Thank you guys all for the Golden Nuggets and hopefully everybody watching this thoroughly enjoyed as well. Check out the resources in the Master Trader program. I attended in 2021, really enjoyed it. The workbook, which you guys didn't mention, is just by itself a fantastic, fantastic resource. So many model book charts. If you want to improve your chart, I, that's the place to be.
当然，我认为，我们就是活生生的例子，马克也是这样。成功的故事将会不断涌现。这真的是一个有回报的行业，但你必须这样去对待它。这就是我的建议。太好了，我还想再感谢你们来到这里。我真的非常享受这次交流。谢谢你们带来的有价值的信息，希望所有观看的人也同样享受其中。去看看《大师交易者》课程中的资源吧，我在2021年参加过，真的很喜欢。你们没提到的那本作业手册本身就是一个极好的资源，里面有很多优秀的模型图表。如果你想提高你的图表技能，那就是你该去的地方。
And I'm considering joining again this year and the Galla tidbit, Mark, may have just tipped the scales. So you have to be very, very good. You have to be at the Galla. So the whole thing. Yeah, it'd be great to see you there. Everybody at Deepview needs to be there. You guys are invited, of course. Awesome. Awesome. Absolutely. You guys are on the close friend list. Awesome. Yeah. Oh, I appreciate it. I hope this has been helpful. That's, you know, we want everybody to benefit and to have a great life. And so, you know, we really hope this has been helpful.
我正在考虑今年再次加入，而Mark提到的Galla活动可能是决定因素。所以，你必须非常优秀，必须参加Galla，全程参与。是的，很希望能在那见到你。Deepview的每个人都需要到场。当然，你们是被邀请的。太棒了，太棒了。绝对是。你们是我们亲密好友名单上的人。太好了。哦，我很感谢。我希望这有所帮助，我们想让每个人都受益，并有一个美好的生活。所以，我们真的希望这能有所帮助。
Yeah, for sure. Well, thank you guys again to everybody watching. Thank everybody in the chat. Please check out the resources. And we'll be right back with the next presenter. Cheers. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
好的，当然。再次感谢所有观看的朋友们。感谢聊天室里的每一个人。请查看相关资源。我们马上回来，介绍下一位演讲者。干杯。谢谢。谢谢。谢谢。