BYD Exec Drops Huge Tesla Bombshell!
发布时间 2025-03-08 20:00:21 来源
这段文字记录了一场关于中国最大的汽车制造商比亚迪的李柯（Stella Li）的讨论，内容涉及她最近关于特斯拉的声明、中国对技术共享的开放态度，以及比亚迪的未来规划。汉斯·纳尔逊（Hans Nelson），该领域的专家，对其中复杂的动态提供了深刻的评论。
李柯表示，即使在贸易紧张局势下，中国也愿意与外国公司分享电动汽车和自动驾驶的关键技术。她还表达了比亚迪与特斯拉合作的愿望，认为内燃机是共同的敌人。她澄清了比亚迪关于在美国和墨西哥建立潜在工厂的计划。
纳尔逊提出了一个谨慎的观点，强调了西方公司与中国公司合作的历史。他认为，中国经常将此类合作描述为“双赢”，但实际上，中国优先考虑自身的利益，通过提取知识产权和复制技术。一旦他们获得了必要的知识，他们就会转变权力动态，导致对原始合作伙伴的激烈竞争。他以西方汽车制造商在中国的经历为例，合资企业最初带来了可观的利润，但最终导致了激烈的竞争和利润率下降，因为中国公司掌握了技术。
他对比亚迪有兴趣与特斯拉合作并不感到惊讶，因为特斯拉拥有先进的驾驶辅助技术。纳尔逊承认，比亚迪呼吁共同对抗燃油汽车与特斯拉的使命相符，但他告诫埃隆·马斯克要注意，任何与比亚迪共享的技术都可能迅速传播到整个中国汽车行业，从而可能造成激烈的全球竞争。
讨论触及了比亚迪最近推出的“天眼”自动驾驶系统。 纳尔逊认为比亚迪正在采取“喷洒和祈祷”的方法，尝试各种技术，包括激光雷达，而不是展示清晰的技术愿景。 他不认为他们是自动驾驶领域的领导者，而是认为这更多的是为了在ADAS领域保持竞争力。
李柯还确认比亚迪目前没有在美国推出电动汽车的计划。这与新政府的政策变化相符。比亚迪也没有就其在墨西哥建厂的计划做出决定。
纳尔逊强调，中国共产党很可能认为特斯拉的网约车技术具有独特的价值，并希望将其融入中国国内产业。埃隆·马斯克需要睁大眼睛进行谈判，了解长期影响和潜在风险。
讨论转向特斯拉的完全自动驾驶（FSD）在中国受到的评价。 最初，中国专家的怀疑态度在经过仔细测试后转变为赞扬。 视频展示了FSD在具有挑战性的场景中的能力，例如在狭窄的山路上行驶以及在恶劣的光照条件下检测小物体。 这种情绪的变化归因于中国用户首次体验FSD并认识到其功能。 纳尔逊表达了他对该技术推广及其继续改进的潜力感到兴奋。 他指出，虽然仍然存在一些缺陷，但推广的速度和质量表明了特斯拉人工智能团队的能力。
对话的最后强调了埃隆·马斯克的其他事业，例如SpaceX和Starlink的战略重要性。 他认为，这些资产使马斯克在与中国、美国和其他国家的谈判中拥有筹码，尤其是在太空优势方面。
This transcript captures a discussion about Stella Li of BYD, China's largest automaker, and her recent statements regarding Tesla, China's openness to technology sharing, and BYD's future plans. Hans Nelson, an expert in the field, provides insightful commentary on the complex dynamics at play.
Stella Li indicated that China is willing to share key technologies in electric vehicles and autonomous driving with foreign companies, even amidst trade tensions. She also expressed BYD's desire to collaborate with Tesla, viewing internal combustion engines as a common enemy. She clarified BYD's plans concerning potential factories in the US and Mexico.
Nelson offers a cautionary perspective, emphasizing the history of Western companies' partnerships with Chinese firms. He argues that China often frames such collaborations as "win-win," but, in reality, prioritizes its own gains by extracting intellectual property and replicating technology. Once they've acquired the necessary knowledge, they shift the power dynamic, leading to intense competition for the original partner. He points to the experiences of Western automakers in China as a prime example, where joint ventures initially led to significant profits but ultimately resulted in fierce competition and dwindling profitability as Chinese companies mastered the technology.
He expresses no surprise at BYD's interest in partnering with Tesla, given Tesla's advanced driver-assistance technology. Nelson acknowledges that BYD's appeal to combat gas cars aligns with Tesla's mission, but cautions Elon Musk to be aware that any technology shared with BYD could rapidly disseminate throughout the Chinese auto industry, potentially creating intense global competition.
The discussion touches upon BYD's recent introduction of its "God's Eye" autonomous driving system. Nelson believes BYD is taking a "spray and pray" approach, experimenting with various technologies, including LiDAR, rather than demonstrating a clear technical vision. He doesn't consider them a leader in autonomous driving, seeing it more as a move to stay competitive in the ADAS landscape.
Li also confirmed BYD's current lack of plans to introduce EVs in the US. This aligns with the change in policy with the new administration. BYD also had no decision being made on their plans to build a plan in Mexico.
Nelson emphasizes that the CCP likely sees Tesla's ride-hailing technology as uniquely valuable and wants to incorporate it into China's domestic industry. Elon Musk needs to enter negotiations with eyes wide open, understanding the long-term implications and potential risks.
The discussion shifts to the reception of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) in China. Initial skepticism from Chinese experts has turned into praise after meticulous testing. Videos are shown demonstrating FSD's capabilities in challenging scenarios, like navigating narrow mountain roads and detecting small objects in difficult lighting conditions. This change in sentiment is attributed to Chinese users experiencing FSD for the first time and recognizing its capabilities. Nelson expresses his excitement about the technology's rollout and its potential to continue improving. He notes that while there are still some imperfections, the speed and quality of the rollout demonstrate the capabilities of Tesla's AI team.
The conversation concludes by highlighting the strategic importance of Elon Musk's other ventures, such as SpaceX and Starlink. He argues that these assets give Musk leverage in negotiations with China, the United States, and other countries, particularly in the context of space superiority.
中英文字稿 
As in Stella Li of BYD, China's largest automaker, was interviewed recently and she made a number of very important statements about Tesla. First, she says China is willing to share key technologies in electric vehicles and autonomous driving with foreign companies despite trade tensions with the US and Europe. Second, she said BYD needs to work together with Tesla to make the industry change. And that Tesla and BYD have a common enemy in the internal combustion engine. She also clarified their plans whether they'll build auto factories in the US and Mexico. And so we've got Hans Nelson joining us. Hans has been following this story very closely with BYD and their attempts at their plans to put God's Eye, which is their autonomous capability, their plans to build factories and their plans to maybe partner with other companies.
最近，中国最大的汽车制造商比亚迪的李娟接受了采访，她对特斯拉发表了一些重要声明。首先，她表示，尽管与美国和欧洲存在贸易紧张关系，中国仍愿意与外国公司分享电动车和自动驾驶的关键技术。其次，她提到比亚迪需要与特斯拉合作，以推动行业变革。特斯拉和比亚迪在内燃机这一共同敌人面前立场一致。她还澄清了他们是否会在美国和墨西哥建厂的计划。此外，我们邀请了汉斯·尼尔森，他一直密切关注比亚迪的动态，包括他们的自动驾驶技术“神眼”的计划、建厂计划以及可能与其他公司合作的计划。
Welcome, Hans. Thanks for having me, Herbert. This is a very interesting and complex topic. It's an important one, right? Because BYD is one of the largest automakers. They're very successful in China, whether they're profitable or not, but they're selling like crazy, multiple car vehicle segments, and then they're going global. And so now they announce with God's Eye, they're going to install some sort of ADAS in all of their car segments, including the ones that are small. So this is Stella Li, and she's actually the color senior vice president in China, executive vice president in China for BYD. But she's the president of the US division for BYD.
欢迎你，汉斯。感谢你的邀请，赫伯特。这是一个非常有趣且复杂的话题。这确实是个重要的话题，因为比亚迪是全球最大的汽车制造商之一，无论他们是否盈利，他们在中国市场都非常成功，销售量非常高，涵盖了多个汽车细分市场，并且正在走向全球。现在他们宣布将启动名为“神之眼”的系统，在所有的汽车细分市场上安装某种高级驾驶辅助系统（ADAS），即使是小型汽车也不例外。斯特拉·李是比亚迪在中国的产品高级副总裁，也是比亚迪在美国的总裁。
And so she said this in an interview, China is more open to foreign business than the West. BYD pledges to work with rival Tesla to combat petrol cars. And then it's this paragraph down here, which she said China. So she didn't say BYD, but China is willing to share key technologies and EVs and autonomous driving with foreign companies, despite trade tensions. What did you take about this particular statement before we go to the rest of her comments?
在一次访谈中，她说中国对外国企业比西方更加开放。比亚迪承诺将与竞争对手特斯拉合作，对抗汽油车。她还提到，中国愿意在电动汽车和自动驾驶方面与外国公司分享关键技术，尽管存在贸易紧张局势。在我们讨论她其他的评论之前，你对她这段话有什么看法？
Yeah, there's a reason that this is the dynamic that's going on. You have to have eyes wide open when you hear statements like this from companies from China, because I know that you, Herbert, have had Michael done on your show as well. And then Farzad and I have had a couple of interviews with him. When you look at the history of these American car companies doing business with China, what you realize is that they love to talk about win-win business with American companies. But when they say win-win, they take us for being naive fools, which we often are.
是的，这种情况背后是有原因的。当你听到来自中国公司的这样的声明时，一定要保持清醒。我知道你，Herbert，也在节目中邀请过Michael，而我和Farzad也与他进行过几次采访。回顾美国汽车公司与中国合作的历史，你会发现他们总是喜欢谈论与美国公司合作的“双赢”。但当他们提到“双赢”时，其实他们认为我们很天真，像傻子一样，他们经常这么认为。
And what they are thinking is, hey, this is a win-win business strategy for us. China will win twice and the American company will lose. So the general playbook that they use here is they want to do a partnership with an American company, and they want to learn everything from the American company. They want to extract all of the intellectual property that's necessary and the experience necessary to where they can then replicate that technology on their own.
他们的想法是，这对我们来说是一个双赢的商业策略。中国将赢两次，而美国公司会输。所以他们在这里通常的策略是，想与美国公司合作，并且从美国公司那里学习所有内容。他们想提取所有必要的知识产权和经验，以便以后可以自己复制这些技术。
And once they have learned all that they have learned and acquired everything that they feel like they needed to acquire, then there will be a shift in the relationship. They are very, very conscious of leverage in partnerships. And they will act like the weaker partner, which they are from a technological standpoint, because they enter into a relationship like this, but they have a long-term strategy and plan to flip the tables of that leverage over the long-term.
一旦他们学到了他们认为需要学习的所有东西，并获得了他们认为需要的一切，关系中就会发生变化。他们非常注意在合作关系中的影响力，并且会表现得像是较弱的一方，因为从技术角度来看，进入这种关系时他们确实是较弱的一方。但他们有一个长期的策略和计划，旨在从长远来看逆转这种影响力。
And once they have done that, the host company that they used to begin with will end up feeling the brunt of very fierce competition and changing political dynamics within the company. So we've seen this, for example, with all of the Western automakers made a lot of money in China for a long time when they first got started there, whether it was GM, whether it was Mercedes, Volkswagen, all of these Western brands came into China. The Chinese offered up their market and it was just irresistible to these companies, but they had to do these joint ventures with Chinese companies.
一旦他们这样做，最初与之合作的东道公司将面临激烈的竞争压力以及公司内部不断变化的政治动态。例如，我们已经看到所有西方汽车制造商在进入中国初期赚了很多钱，无论是通用汽车、梅赛德斯还是大众，这些西方品牌纷纷进入中国市场。中国向他们开放了市场，对这些企业来说是难以抗拒的诱惑，但他们必须与中国公司进行合资。
And these Chinese companies learned everything about how to make cars from these Western automakers. And they built up their local supply chain. And now what you see is that every single one of those Western car companies has faced fierce competition from the intellectual property that they had in China. Didn't stay confined to that one company that they're in a joint venture with. That person that they're in a joint venture with is used to then transfer that knowledge and information to the entire competitive ecosystem in China.
这些中国公司从这些西方汽车制造商那里学到了关于如何制造汽车的一切。他们建立了自己的本地供应链。现在你会看到，每一家西方汽车公司都面临着来自它们在中国的知识产权的激烈竞争。这些知识产权不仅停留在与它们合资的那一家公司。合资伙伴通常会将这些知识和信息转移到整个中国的竞争生态系统中。
And then you find yourself competing with a hundred other companies. And they've all like the profitability in China for all of these companies has gone to almost zero or less than zero. And people are having to pull back. And so the thing that was, for a short time, the most profitable business segment in their entire companies is now actually something where they're losing money year on year. And that was not an accident. That was the plan from the get go for this business relationship. And so they understand that we like short term profits and they use these carrots to lure us into a trap to then be able to out compete us in the long run. In technologies that they view are strategically important for the country.
然后，你会发现自己正在与其他一百家公司竞争。而这些公司在中国的盈利几乎降到零甚至是负值。大家不得不撤回。而曾经一度是他们整个公司中最赚钱的业务，现在却年复一年地亏损。这并不是偶然，而是这个商业关系从一开始就设定的计划。他们了解我们喜欢短期利润，并利用这些“诱饵”把我们引入一个陷阱，最终在他们认为对国家战略重要的技术领域中击败我们。
So I am 0% surprised that a Chinese company wants to do a partnership like this with Tesla. Obviously got the best advanced driver assistance technology. And this is going to make the calculus for Elon very, very interesting because they know what it is that Tesla and Elon are trying to do. This language is specifically meant to appeal to Elon. Let's go ahead and try to take gas cars down. Let's put EVs against gas cars. It does align with the mission in those ways. But Elon has to know that over the long term, they're definitely going to try to like any technology partnership that they have with BYD expect all of that IP then to get transferred to every other Chinese automaker in relatively short order and to be facing fierce competition from them all over the globe.
所以，我一点也不惊讶一家中国公司想与特斯拉进行这样的合作。显然，特斯拉拥有最先进的驾驶辅助技术。对于埃隆来说，这会让局势变得非常有趣，因为他们知道特斯拉和埃隆在追求什么。这种表述特别吸引埃隆。让我们努力淘汰燃油车，把电动车与燃油车对抗。从这方面来看，这与埃隆的使命是一致的。但埃隆必须认识到，从长远来看，他们肯定会希望技术合作（例如与比亚迪的合作）中的所有知识产权在相对较短的时间内转移给其他中国汽车制造商，并在全球范围内面临激烈竞争。
And so does he want to enter into a partnership like that? Maybe, maybe not. You know, the thing that Elon has going for him is that they are continuing to iterate rapidly across the entire business. And so Elon doesn't believe in moats. He says the only real moat is pace of innovation. And so as long as they continue to maintain that culture and that ethos, they should be able to at least keep pace with if not stay ahead of all of this competition that they would face from China. And that's just not the case for the legacy automakers that they didn't have a pace of innovation.
那么他是否想要进入这样的合作关系呢？可能会，也可能不会。你知道，埃隆的长处在于，他们整个业务在不断地快速迭代。埃隆不相信护城河的概念，他认为唯一真正的护城河就是创新的速度。因此，只要他们继续保持这种文化和精神，他们应该至少能够跟上，甚至领先于来自中国的所有竞争。而传统汽车制造商就不具备这种创新速度。
You know, like they had this IP that they had built up over many, many decades. And once the Chinese automakers understood how to do what they do, they weren't changing what they do to improve it fast enough to stay ahead. So that's it's a very interesting and very complex set of dynamics at play. Yeah, I think what's happening here is BYD wants to get into the US and they know that there's trade tensions. They know that US won't let them in. And so they're saying, hey, you know, we're willing, China is willing to share key technologies and EVs and autonomous drive and wood foreign companies. So they're saying, you know, maybe partner with us, get our tech, get into, you know, get us into the US. Our common enemy is the internal combustion engine.
你知道，这些公司多年来积累了大量的知识产权。当中国汽车制造商学会了这些技术后，原来的公司没有迅速改进他们的产品以保持领先。所以，这其中涉及到非常有趣且复杂的动态。我认为现在的情况是，比亚迪想要进入美国市场，他们知道存在贸易紧张关系，也知道美国不太可能让他们进入。因此，他们表示，中国愿意与外国公司分享电动汽车和自动驾驶方面的关键技术。他们是在说，也许可以和我们合作，利用我们的技术把我们引入美国。我们的共同敌人是内燃机。
We need to work together. When she's talking about, you know, she pledged to work with rival Tesla to combat petrol cars. While insisting that Beijing was more open to foreign business than the West is. I don't know if that's a also potentially a threat. Yeah. I think that that statement is a reference to Chinese companies invite Western companies into the Chinese market more often than Western countries invite Chinese companies into the Western markets. But that's because we've observed this exact dynamic and we understand that, you know, most of the time partnerships with these Chinese companies do not work out as win-win partnerships over the long term that these are strategic partnerships that they view through a very anti-competitive lens over the long run and that they are trying to extract value at our expense in ways that are not conducive to free trade.
我们需要合作。当她谈到与特斯拉这样的竞争对手合作以对抗汽油车时，她坚持认为北京对外国企业更加开放，而西方国家则没有那么开放。我不知道这是不是一种潜在的威胁。我认为这番话是指中国公司更常邀请西方公司进入中国市场，而西方国家则没那么频繁地邀请中国公司进入西方市场。这是因为我们观察到了这种现象，并理解到，与中国公司的合作在长期内往往不是双赢的。这些被视为战略合作，但从长远来看是通过非常反竞争的视角进行的，他们试图以不利于自由贸易的方式获取我们的价值。
They're not conducive to free markets. And, you know, they can try to make it sound like they're this innocent entity in all this. That's more, you know, more virtuous than Western companies. But it's a ploy. That's not real. It's not true. And yeah, so I guess this is a good statement. The government will support you. They'll work with you to allow any technology to be realized. You know, yeah, I got what you're saying, but, you know, the concern would be that they would go completely opposite and just shut out foreign companies that come to China. They're still trying to negotiate here.
他们对自由市场不利。你知道，他们可能会尝试让自己看起来像是无辜的存在，比西方公司更有道德。但是这只是一个策略，不是真的，不是真相。所以，我觉得这句话很有道理：政府会支持你，他们会与你合作，使任何技术得以实现。是的，我明白你的意思，但担忧是他们可能会完全反其道而行之，把来到中国的外国公司拒之门外。他们还在试图进行谈判。
So that last month they introduced their BYD, choose their version of smart driving functions called God's Eye. We've covered that at length. It's going to be made available at no cost to most of its models, but it's very complicated. It's like three different kinds of suites, depending on the three different segments of cars, the low cost, the middle cost, and the high premium cars. It will have LiDAR. They're going to cover the cost of these multiple radars and sensors.
上个月他们推出了自己的BYD车型，其中包括他们的智能驾驶功能版本，名为“天眼”。我们已经详细报道过这个功能。这个功能会免费提供给大多数车型，但它结构非常复杂。根据汽车的不同档次——低价位、中等价位和高端车型，它分为三种不同的套装。它将配备激光雷达，这些多种雷达和传感器的费用将由他们承担。
Yeah, I don't think, you know, they have the technical vision or instincts that Elon has to know which of these things is going to work or not. And so they're just going to try anything and everything and whatever works the best they'll move forward with. So, you know, this could evolve. And if they can get vision to really work well, maybe they'll abandon all of these other things. They're, you know, this is much more of a spray and pray shotgun approach to let's try everything and whatever works the best, then we'll double down on that in the future.
是的，我觉得他们没有像埃隆那样的技术眼光或直觉，能判断哪些东西会成功。所以他们会尝试各种方法，看看哪个效果最好，然后继续发展。因此，这个过程可能会有变化。如果他们能让视觉系统运行得很好，可能会放弃其他的尝试。目前，他们的策略更像是一种广泛撒网的方法，尝试一切，看看哪个效果最好，然后在未来把精力投入在那个方面。
Yeah, people are saying, oh my God, they're leaders now in self-driving. No, what this was was recognizing that if they don't say that they have some sort of ADAS system, then it's like, it's table stakes. All cars need to have advanced ADAS. And now that they say, okay, we're going to have it, but it's nowhere. There's no proof here that in any way that this is solved autonomous driving at all.
好吧，人们在说，天哪，他们现在在自动驾驶方面是领导者。其实并不是这样的，这是因为他们意识到如果不说自己有某种高级驾驶辅助系统（ADAS），那就像是没有筹码一样。现在所有的汽车都需要有高级ADAS。虽然他们现在表示会拥有这种系统，但其实没有证据显示他们在解决自动驾驶问题上取得了任何突破。
Yeah, so that's their point that she made. And then the other one was that this is, you know, her plans. So she confirmed that BYD had no plans to introduce electric vehicles in the US, right, which of course now that Trump has won, she knows that the policy is to not let cars made in Mexico to just go in without tariffs. In fact, they've implemented the tariffs in Mexico and Canada. So that's why BYD had made no decision has been made on BYD's plans to build a plan in Mexico. They work about to, then they pulled off and similar to what Tesla did.
好的，她的意思是这样。她提到BYD（比亚迪）并没有计划在美国推出电动车，这点已经得到了确认。尤其是现在特朗普赢了选举后，她知道政策是不允许在墨西哥生产的汽车免税进入美国。实际上，他们已经在墨西哥和加拿大实施了关税。这就是为什么BYD还没有决定在墨西哥建厂。原本他们有这个计划，但现在撤回了，类似于特斯拉之前的做法。
She said she was not concerned about a global slowdown in the EV transition as a result of Trump's policies. So obviously it's still very much electric vehicles is here to stay. Why are people still choosing the EV? Because it's a better car, it's a smarter car, it's higher quality. So that's good to say to hear that anything here that you thought was surprising. No, not at all.
她说她并不担心由于特朗普的政策导致全球电动车转型放缓。显然，电动车依然是未来的趋势。人们仍然选择电动车的原因是，它们更好、更智能、质量更高。所以听到这些是很好的。这其中有没有什么让你感到惊讶的？没有，一点也没有。
I, like I mentioned earlier, this is the position that I expect the Chinese automakers and BYD specifically to take, you know, BYD is the largest of the EV manufacturers in China, which means it's the most in bed with the CCP. I think the subtext that this tells you is that the CCP views Tesla's ride hailing technology as, if not superior, at least unique and uniquely valuable.
正如我之前提到的，这是我预期中国汽车制造商，特别是比亚迪会采取的立场。你知道，比亚迪是中国最大的电动汽车制造商，这意味着它与中国政府关系密切。我认为，这句话的潜台词是，中国政府认为特斯拉的叫车技术即便不一定是最优秀的，但至少具有独特且独特的价值。
And so they want to be able to keep as close of an eye on it as possible, incorporate it as much as possible so that they can learn how to replicate this domestically in China. And just understanding the way, you know, the art of war thought process in business that, you know, the CCP and Chinese industry has this is right on brand for what I would expect from them.
因此，他们希望尽可能密切地关注，并尽量将其整合，以便了解如何在中国国内复制这一点。了解中共和中国企业的商业策略，就像《孙子兵法》中的思维过程这一点，正是我对他们会有的预期。
And like I said, that's why I would caution Elon and Tesla to enter into these negotiations with eyes wide open on all of these dimensions, which I'm sure that they do like, you know, Tom Joo, Grace Tao, they understand these things very well. You know, this is not going to be surprise or news to Elon or Tesla management.
正如我所说的，这就是为什么我建议埃隆和特斯拉在进入这些谈判时要全面了解所有方面的原因。我相信他们是这样做的，比如汤姆·朱、陶琳，他们对这些情况非常了解。对埃隆或特斯拉管理层而言，这不会是一个意外或新消息。
But this is something that I think a lot of the Tesla community and just the broader Western consumers don't understand about the dynamics of these business relationships. I do think that BYD is willing to partner with Tesla. They already are partners for batteries. And I think that they're just trying to figure out how do I get into the US? How do I go global if I partner with you, Tesla?
但我认为，很多特斯拉社区以及更广泛的西方消费者，并不理解这些商业关系的动态。我确实认为，比亚迪愿意与特斯拉合作。他们已经在电池方面是合作伙伴。我想他们只是想弄清楚，如果与特斯拉合作，如何进入美国市场，如何走向全球。
But China has allowed Tesla to release full self-driving. And it is being well received by the Chinese testers and the experts out there. They're being shocked at how good it is, you know, for a year or two now we kept hearing everybody saying, don't don't underestimate the Chinese autonomy. They're so far ahead of Tesla.
但中国已经允许特斯拉推出完全自动驾驶功能，并且受到了中国测试人员和专家的好评。他们对其优异表现感到震惊。过去一两年，我们一直听到人们说，不要低估中国在自动驾驶技术上的能力，他们远远领先于特斯拉。
Yeah, do not underestimate them. But no, they're not that far ahead of Tesla. We're seeing over and over again people saying, hey, you've compared it directly to all of them. It's funny that, you know, there's such a big overlap between the people that all think that Tesla is doing the wrong thing because they don't have LIDAR and the people that think China is ahead in full self-driving.
是的，不要低估他们。但不，他们并没有比特斯拉领先那么多。我们一次又一次地看到有人说，你直接把这些进行对比。很有趣的是，认为特斯拉做错了事情的人（因为他们没有使用激光雷达）和认为中国在全自动驾驶方面领先的人之间有着很大的重叠。
It's because they believe in LIDAR and China is doing more stuff with LIDAR. And so. And they're trying to get out of it too. That's the thing though, right? We keep hearing one company after another, including Huawei by the way, they just announced what six months ago that they're moving to neural nets. And many companies are dumping LIDAR.
这是因为他们相信激光雷达，而中国在激光雷达方面做了更多工作。然而，他们也试图从中脱身。这就是重点，我们一直听到一家又一家公司，包括华为在内，大约六个月前他们宣布转向神经网络。很多公司都在放弃激光雷达。
But people still think. Okay, so let's. Is an intelligence problem? It has always been an intelligence problem and it will always be an intelligence problem. So if you have the intelligence to drive. Do you need laser beams that shoot out of your eyes and come back to tell you exactly where all the things are when you drive? I don't think so. So you know, that's like really as simple as it comes down to. And more people will come to realize this over time. I think there are some specific scenarios where if you can get the LIDAR cheap enough on the car, like sure, it is hard as a person to park in really tight parking places. And so you know, if you can use it as a supplement to do parking, I think that's like the best use case for the technology. I don't think it's necessary for you know, 99% of driving in any way, shape or form. And because of that, it's always just going to be more expensive than just using cameras and intelligence.
但是人们依然认为这是一个智能问题。它一直是智能问题，将来也会是智能问题。如果你有智力去驾驶车辆，那么你需要用眼睛发射激光束来告诉你路上的所有东西在哪里吗？我不这么认为。所以，这其实就是如此简单。随着时间的推移，会有更多人意识到这一点。我觉得在某些特定场景下，如果车上的激光雷达足够便宜，那确实可以派上用场，比如在人们很难停车的狭小停车位中。如果把激光雷达作为停车的辅助工具，我认为这是该技术最好的应用场景。我认为在99%的驾驶场合中，无论如何并不需要激光雷达。因为这个原因，相比纯粹的摄像头和智能技术，使用激光雷达总是更昂贵。
So this is what obviously the experts here you got. Says here, these Chinese folks were once critics of Tesla, but after FSD full self driving became operating in China, they conducted meticulous tests and became full of praise for Tesla's active safety features. By analyzing every frame of video footage, they found that Tesla's FSD not only has extremely low reaction latency, but it's also accurate and rational. They gradually increase the difficulty of their tests at night with car beams high beam shine directly at it under powerful spotlight conditions. Tesla could still promptly detect a simulated pedestrian suddenly darting out from behind an obstacle. The final surprise came when in a nighttime backlit environment, they placed a 20 centimeter tall wild vegetable on the road. The test FSC and FSD still handed it safely.
好的，这里说的是一些显然具有专业知识的专家们曾经批评过特斯拉的这些中国朋友，但在特斯拉的全自动驾驶（FSD）在中国开始运行后，他们进行了详细的测试，并对特斯拉的主动安全功能赞不绝口。通过分析每一帧视频画面，他们发现特斯拉的FSD不仅反应延迟极低，而且准确合理。他们逐步增加测试的难度，在夜间用汽车远光灯直接照射以及在强聚光灯条件下进行测试。即使在这种情况下，如果有模拟的行人突然从障碍物后面跑出来，特斯拉仍能及时检测到。最后一个惊喜是，他们在夜间背光环境中在路上放置了一个20厘米高的野菜，FSD仍然能安全处理。
So this is now people. I'm going to turn off the sound here. But basically, this is like a very long video of this guy who was such a critic of vision only and now became a convert. What you see behind there is the vegetation, small little, you know, little vegetation like that little bush and the car was able to detect it and be able to, you know, figure this out. This is them testing it and the high beams. Here's another. And you can hear the excitement. That's one example. And then you've got, you know, very many videos. You got this video here of the Trashter's roads. Tesla FSD takes on this lousy shoe road, legendary nine bends, 18 curves, flawless precision. So this is where really it's shocking everybody's not only during the city, where there's busy with scooters, pedestrians, just craziness going on. This didn't really well. But more importantly, it's in these mountain roads, these unmarked roads.
这就是现在的情况。我打算把声音关掉。这实际上是一个很长的视频，讲的是一个原本对仅依靠视觉技术持批评态度的人，现在变成了支持者。在视频中，你可以看到背景里的植被，像小灌木丛那样的小植被，汽车能够检测到它，并据此做出判断。他们正在测试远光灯的效果。你能听到他们的兴奋。这只是一个例子。此外，还有很多视频，比如这个视频关于崎岖不平的道路。特斯拉的FSD在这些差劲的道路上表现出色，例如传说中的九曲十八弯，精准无误。令人震惊的是，它不仅在城市里表现良好，那里有电动车、行人和各种混乱的情况，特斯拉做好了。但更重要的是，它在这些山路和没有标识的道路上也表现出了很强的适应能力。
This is the part that people are very freaked out. And if you listen to the guys, they're just freaking out. You can hear the excitement. Yeah, it's just it's just the shock that they can do this so well, these kinds of roads. Yeah, even like that, right? There's cars parked there and able to do that right. The excitement for them, because remember, this is the first time many people in China are experiencing full self-driving, like we have here in the US for the last year. It's the first time they're seeing it and they're realizing this is good stuff. It works. So sentiment has changed.
这部分让很多人感到非常震惊。如果你听这些人的声音，他们完全在激动，你能感受到他们的兴奋。因为令人震撼的是，他们在这种道路上表现得如此出色。是的，即便在那样的情况下，对吧？那里停着车，但他们依然能够顺利通过。对于他们来说，这是激动人心的，因为记住，这是很多中国人第一次体验到像我们在美国过去一年中已经经历过的全自动驾驶。他们第一次看到这种技术，并认识到这确实是好东西，它确实有效。所以，人们的观念改变了。
What have you heard? What have you heard so far? Yeah. I mean, what we've watched here, you know, on X is the extent of what I've heard, but it is so exciting that this technology is rolling out that it's working well. You know, there were a lot of question marks around Tesla's ability to do this. And once again, Tesla AI proves the skeptics and the doubters wrong. And I, you know, even I was, I just didn't know, I wasn't confident that they wouldn't be able to roll it out. I do think that there's questions about, you know, politically in China, you know, if if Tesla doesn't want to work with someone like BYD, how long will the Chinese government allow them to operate FSD domestically in the country?
你听到了什么？你到目前为止听到了什么？是的，我的意思是，我们在X平台上看到的就是我所知道的全部，但这个技术的推出确实让人兴奋，并且运作良好。你知道，之前有很多关于特斯拉能否做到这一点的疑问。而特斯拉的人工智能再次证明了怀疑者和批评者是错误的。即使是我，我也不确定他们是否能够推出来。我确实认为，在政治层面上，在中国有一些疑问，比如如果特斯拉不想与比亚迪这样的公司合作，中国政府会允许他们在国内运行完全自动驾驶功能多长时间？
I think you just need to know those kinds of things. There's a quick pro quo for letting Tesla to go FSD into China. They said, okay, we're concerned about privacy. You need to figure out how you're going to, you know, keep the information in China that there's something there that but they got the regulatory approval. Yeah, there's probably a quid pro quo. I'll say that the political that we said in the recommendations going on here. Yeah, I have got to be intense. Some companies, any of those kinds of things. It's hard to handicap how that will play out over time. But yeah, the one thing that I didn't doubt was Tesla's technical capability to make this work in China is just going to take more time and creativity, you know, based on the constraints that people had.
我认为你只需要了解这些事情。为了让特斯拉的全自动驾驶（FSD）进入中国，双方可能有某种交换条件。他们说，我们对隐私问题很关心。特斯拉需要找到一种方式，把相关信息留在中国，尽管有问题存在，但他们获得了监管批准。是的，可能有某种交易。我会说，这涉及到我们在建议中提到的政治因素。这其中一定有很大的压力。一些公司会涉及到这些事情，难以判断这种情况将如何发展。但我从不怀疑特斯拉在技术上有能力让这一点在中国实现，只是需要更多时间和创造力来应对现有的限制。
So that's why I was a little bit surprised. The upside is that we're able to make this work so fast. So that I'm just once again, so impressed by Tesla's AI team that not only were they able to accomplish it, but they were able to accomplish it very, very quickly and to a very high level of quality. And so you just have to give it to them. And it's another it's only going to get better from here.
所以这就是为什么我有点惊讶的原因。好的一面是我们能这么快就让这个项目运作起来。因此，我再次对特斯拉的人工智能团队印象深刻，他们不仅能够完成任务，而且完成得又快又好。你不得不佩服他们。从现在开始，这只会越来越好。
Yeah, it's only been a week. And of course, it's still not reading some Chinese signs. It's still going into bus lanes. It's still being too cautious. It's not going to be perfect. But you know, their ability to roll it out at this level so quickly should give people high confidence that they will work down that, you know, punch list of things that are, you know, bugs and flaws in the system. You know, it's all going to happen.
是的，这才一个星期。当然，它仍然无法读懂一些中文标识，仍然会开进公交专用道，还是过于谨慎。它不会是完美的。但你知道，他们能够这么快就把它推向这个水平，应该让人们对他们能够解决系统中的那些漏洞和缺陷充满信心。这些问题最终都会被逐一解决的。
Like, I feel this makes me more confident, even as someone who lives in the United States, that we're still going to continue to see rapid progress on FSD here and everywhere. Like, this is just proving the chops of the Tesla AI team to solve whatever the bottleneck is this week, that they seem to be able to solve it pretty quickly. And there are no challenges that we haven't seen solved that they've said, okay, here's the thing that we're going to do. And then they do it. That I can think of off the top of my head.
我觉得这让我更有信心，即使作为一个住在美国的人，我仍然相信我们会继续看到在这里和世界各地的FSD（全自动驾驶）迅速发展。这充分证明了特斯拉人工智能团队的能力，他们似乎能很快解决本周的瓶颈问题。没有什么挑战是他们没有解决过的，一旦他们说要做某件事，他们就能做到。这就是我能立即想到的。
So like, we are we were just rapidly moving into this future of Tesla, robo taxis, and I'm here for I am stoked. This was a big, big deal that they were allowed to do FSC in China, because as we've kind of been talking about, it's one thing to show you've been saying the technology that they were able to solve the AI.
所以，我们正在快速进入一个特斯拉机器人出租车的未来，而我对此感到非常兴奋。这是一个非常重大的事件，他们被允许在中国进行全自动驾驶实验。正如我们一直在讨论的，这不仅证明了他们在技术上的成就，也表明他们能够解决人工智能的问题。
But see, I think about the political maneuvering, the political maneuvering that Elon had to do to be able to have a gigashang high. And if he didn't have a gigashang high, look at all these terrible gigashang high. There's no terrible issue to Tesla selling their cars in China. And they continue to sell cars in China. One of the biggest the biggest come up the point that the what was his name the biggest Tesla short at one point. Chino chain us Jim channels.
但是你看，我想到政治操作，埃隆·马斯克为了在上海建立超级工厂所做的政治操作。如果他没有这样的工厂，看看这些巨大的问题，特斯拉在中国销售汽车的问题可能会很糟糕。然而，他们继续在中国卖车。而这也成了一个反驳曾经最大特斯拉空头之一——吉姆·切诺斯（Jim Chanos）——的有力论据。
Yeah, his number one biggest point when he went on TV and he debated said I'm going to short Tesla. He said at any moment China, it was like, you know, makes up 50% of their sales could just turn around and stop it. It hadn't happened yet. And that's why the comments were here. And the reason that it hasn't happened yet is because Tesla understands that if you're doing business in China, it's always has been and always will be about leverage and what you bring to the table.
他说他在电视上辩论时的最大观点是他要做空特斯拉。他指出，中国占特斯拉销售额的50%，随时可能翻脸停止合作。但这种情况还没有发生，所以才会有这样的评论。之所以还没有发生，是因为特斯拉明白，在中国做生意一直以来都是关于你所拥有的影响力和能带来什么价值。
And so he understands how to maintain that position and keep the leverage between the CCP and Tesla at you know, relatively neutral. And so, you know, so they've done well so far. Hopefully that can continue.
他了解如何在中共和特斯拉之间保持相对中立的位置和影响力。所以，到目前为止，他们做得很好。希望这种情况能继续下去。
Yeah, indefinitely attack into the future. And China wants to become a global leader. Follow us, let us in there. And that's what happened. They let him in there. They built up the supply chain that supplies Tesla. All of these companies formed in China. They're successful. Many of them die, of course, because it's a bloodbath there. But now they're going global, you got BYD, you know, being helped.
是的，无限期地进攻未来。中国希望成为全球领袖。跟随我们，让我们进入那里。于是他们就这样做了。他们建立了为特斯拉提供供应链的体系。很多公司在中国成立并取得成功。当然，其中不少公司因为竞争激烈而倒闭。但现在他们正在走向全球化，比如比亚迪也获得了支持。
Now you want to become a leader autonomous tech, who's the leader Tesla, let Tesla in, let them share that technology partner with and they will be the leader, you know, FSD is not the only bleeding edge technology that Tesla is developing. They're also developing optimists.
现在你想成为自动驾驶技术的领导者，那么谁是领军者呢？答案是特斯拉。让特斯拉加入，让他们分享这项技术，成为合作伙伴，他们就会成为领导者。要知道，FSD（完全自动驾驶）并不是特斯拉正在开发的唯一尖端技术，他们还在开发另一个项目——Optimus。
Optimists is going to be of huge importance to the CCP. So there's going to be continued leverage there as well. And then Elon always has the leverage of SpaceX and Starlink. And I'm not going to get into how hugely strategic those assets are in all of these political calculations as well.
乐观主义者对于中共将具有巨大的重要性。因此，在这方面将会继续有影响力。此外，埃隆还一直掌握着SpaceX和Starlink的筹码。我不会详细讨论这些资产在所有这些政治考量中具有多么重大的战略意义。
But yeah, Elon is a very, very, I mean, I'll just briefly say that SpaceX and Starlink are Elon's most underappreciated strategic assets in negotiations period world with the world with the United States government, with his relationships politically with leaders in China.
当然，埃隆·马斯克是非常、非常，我的意思是，我简单说一下，SpaceX和星链是埃隆在全球范围内，特别是在与美国政府的谈判中以及与中国领导人的政治关系中，最被低估的战略资产。
You know, other countries that really don't like Elon right now, you know, like Starlink is a Trump card that works for a lot of things. And then just think about the fact that SpaceX lost 90% of all mass that goes to orbit right now. And if air superiority was the most strategic battlefield of the 20th century, space superiority is the most strategic advantage in the next.
你知道，现在有一些国家不太喜欢埃隆·马斯克，Starlink（星链）在很多事情上是一个王牌。想一想，SpaceX 目前承担了90%的太空运输任务。在20世纪，空中优势是最具战略意义的战场，而在下个世纪，太空优势将成为最重要的战略优势。
And the ability, you know, especially when Starship gets to launch the ability for them to put orders of magnitude more mass into orbit in a couple of days than anyone else combined means that SpaceX is one of the single most important military strategic assets in the world. Period, Barnut.
你知道，尤其是当星舰（Starship）能够发射时，SpaceX具备在几天内将比所有其他公司总和多得多的质量送入轨道的能力。这意味着SpaceX是世界上其中一个最重要的军事战略资产。无可置疑。
I just did a show with Phil Bessel. He used to be the VP at Rivian electric car maker. He's brilliant. He did a show and he just talked about how Starlink is going to be game changer for the bots and that allows them to have ubiquitous network connection. And then how when you have ubiquitous network connection, he'd listed out a lot of things that you can do not only have memory, shared memory, group actions, but just the whole thing about how, you know, you can basically having swarms of bots all coordinated working together, instant latency kind of thing. Well, on Skynet. Let's call it Skynet.
我刚刚和Phil Bessel一起做了一个节目。他以前是电动车制造商Rivian的副总裁，非常聪明。他在节目中谈到Starlink将如何改变机器人行业，因为它能够提供无处不在的网络连接。他详细列举了在这种情况下可以实现的多种功能，比如拥有共享内存、团体行动等等。实际上，这可以让群体化的机器人实现高度协调和即时反应。就像是天网计划一样，让我们称之为“天网”。
That's a great name. But yeah, so you are on it's a really good point that you're making. There's reasons why China needs to have Elon as part of it. And he needs, they need to give Elon what he needs. But then he will there's a quick pro call, dude. And maybe it's BYD, maybe it's another company. But I do think that there will be something was given back to a Chinese car company to be able to have some of this tech. Yeah.
那是个好名字。不过，你刚才提到了一个很好的观点。中国有理由需要让埃隆·马斯克参与其中，而他们也需要给埃隆他所需要的东西。但这是一种互惠互利的关系，兄弟。可能是比亚迪，也可能是其他公司。但我确实认为，中国的一家汽车公司可能会得到一些技术上的回报。
Oh, big show BYD. Very important. Thank you so much, Hans. Your analysis is always top notch and really appreciate you so much. Follow him on his YouTube channel. And if you are going to buy a Tesla, I'll put up his link, you can save up to $2,500 and use his referral link. Thanks, everybody. Thank you. Bye bye.
哦，比亚迪的大秀。非常重要。非常感谢你，Hans。你的分析总是非常出色，我真的很感激你。请关注他的YouTube频道。如果你要买特斯拉，我会提供他的链接，你可以节省高达$2,500，并使用他的推荐链接。感谢大家。谢谢，再见。
Have a good one, Harvard. I've created a website that is the most comprehensive resource for the Tesla investor. Please check it out. Simply go to my website at herbernall.com.
祝哈佛一切顺利。我创建了一个网站，它是特斯拉投资者最全面的资源。请访问我的网站查看，网址是herbernall.com。