I Turned $20k into $10 MILLION by Spotting Twitter Trends — Stock Picking Strategy
发布时间 2019-07-09 13:00:13 来源
中英文字稿 
Today's episode is one you've been asking for, and we've been promising for a long time. Welcome to Dumb Money's first of what I hope to be many episodes on trading and investing in stocks. We reveal the stock-picking strategy that Chris used to turn 20K into $10 million. I'm sitting here at Southern Methodist University in the very classroom where I took intro to investing over 23 years ago.
今天的节目是你们一直期待的，而我们也承诺了很久。欢迎收看《Dumb Money》的第一个关于股票交易和投资的节目，希望这是我们众多此类节目中的第一个。我们将揭示克里斯如何用两万美元赚到一千万美元的选股策略。我现在坐在南方卫理公会大学的教室里，就是我23年前上投资入门课的地方。
In 2011, Chris wrote a book on the topic called Laughing at Wall Street, How I Beat the Pros and Investing by reading tablets, shopping at the mall, and connecting on Facebook, and how you can too. Truth is, I spent more time trading stocks on a payphone in the basement of this business school than I ever did in this class giving credence to conventional investment principles. The book was a thing all over the world. It was translated to Korean, this one's from Hungary, and in Japan, they gave him a funny mustache.
在2011年，克里斯写了一本关于该主题的书，名为《嘲笑华尔街：如何通过看平板电脑、逛商场和用Facebook来击败专业人士进行投资，以及你也能做到的方法》。事实上，我在这所商学院的地下室里，用付费电话进行股票交易的时间，比在课堂上学习传统投资原则的时间多得多。这本书在全球范围内都有影响。它被翻译成韩文，这是匈牙利版，在日本，他们给了他一个滑稽的小胡子。
Same living proof that you don't need big Wall Street experience or a pet-agreed financial degree to outperform the world's top traders. I'll show you how to outsmart Wall Street's brightest by learning how to uncover trading opportunities hidden in everyday life. We're better to kick off this episode teaching you how we beat Wall Street. We're headed to a stock-picking summit in New York City.
同样的事实证明，你不需要丰富的华尔街经验或官方认证的金融学位，也能超越世界顶级交易员。我将告诉你如何通过学习发现日常生活中的交易机会来胜过华尔街的精英。我们将在本期节目中教你如何击败华尔街。我们即将前往纽约市参加一个选股峰会。
I feel like I know we're bringing our book to this investing conference to get out. I'm feeling like my book is outdated. It's nine years old now. Everything we do is database now. I'm almost embarrassed to give it out, but I have like a thousand of them left that I bought so I can give them out to people that couldn't afford to buy them or you know, and stuff like that. I had to give them out. So if anyone, if anyone wants one of my books and you live in the US, stick around to the end and I'll tell you how to get it. For free.
我觉得我们带着这本书去参加这个投资会议有点为了把它处理掉的意思。我感到我的书有点过时了，毕竟已经出版九年了。现在我们做的任何事情都是以数据为基础的。我差不多都有点不好意思把它送出去了，但我手里还有大约一千本，都是我买下来的，目的是送给那些负担不起买书的人，或者其他类似情况。我必须把它们送出去。所以，如果有人想要我这本书，而且你住在美国，请坚持到最后，我会告诉你如何免费获得一本。
For all those people asking, why don't you put out more trade boards? Why don't you trade more often? If you read the book, you'll understand why it is that we trade so infrequently. We're opportunistic traders that when we see something that is potentially not yet known by Wall Street, that's when we pull the trigger. The type of information dislocation that we trade on is rare.
对于所有问“为什么你们不发布更多交易意见？”以及“为什么你们不更频繁地交易？”的人，如果你们读过这本书，就会明白我们为什么交易这么不频繁。我们是机会型交易者，当我们发现一些华尔街可能还未发现的信息时，我们才会采取行动。我们依靠的那种信息不对称是很少见的。
Yeah, we get comments, please put out more trade boards. We're looking for things to invest in. That's not the way our investing. That's not the way our stock picking works. It's not like a get rich quick scheme. The methodology is regimented and you have to learn it and you have to practice it and it's imperfect and it, listen, I still make mistakes all the time. We make mistakes and are investing.
是的，我们常收到这样的评论：“请发布更多的交易板块。我们在寻找投资机会。” 但这不是我们进行投资的方式，也不是我们选择股票的方式。这并不是一个快速致富的计划。我们的方法是有条理的，你需要学习它并不断实践。它并不完美，而且，听我说，我仍然会经常犯错。我们在投资过程中会犯错误。
This is the first time I'll be going back to New York since I've been a vlogger. I feel like we should maybe go pay tribute to Casey Neistat. So our first stop is the Crock Store. Where is the Crock Store? South, downtown. Good. It's downtown-ish. Good directions. Alright. The Crock is down 50% from its eye. All my data shows that they are killing it still.
这是我成为博主后第一次回到纽约。我觉得我们也许应该去朝圣一下Casey Neistat。所以我们的第一站是Crock商店。Crock商店在哪里？在市中心的南边。好的，就在市中心附近。好的方向。好吧。Crock的价值从它的高峰下降了50%。但我所有的数据都显示他们依然做得非常好。
The problem is we have this shoe tariff that's potentially going into effect any day or any week now. That's what's crushing the stock. But I still want to do a store check because we just don't have any doubts. That is one way to gauge consumer demand. Well, the other will be exploring throughout this episode. Yes. Light rides and sandals. That's really what's about this summer.
问题在于，我们面临的这个鞋类关税可能会在任何一天或一周内生效。正是这个因素导致了股票的下跌。不过，我仍然想进行一次实体店检查，因为我们对此没有任何疑虑。这是一种评估消费者需求的方法。至于其他方法，我们将在本期节目中进行探讨。是的，今年夏天的主题就是轻便鞋和凉鞋。
So social traffic is amazing. Search traffic is amazing. Web traffic is amazing. I'm not calling. I'm still researching it. But I'll do a trade war. Click on the right handboard. I made it to Canal Street. Time for our Chinese food. And this is the place that you've been going for how long now? 40 years. Listen, if dumb money were in New York, we would not be eating barbecue every day.
社交流量很厉害，搜索流量也很厉害，网页流量也很厉害。我现在不打电话，我还在研究。不过，我要进行一场贸易战。在右侧留言板上点击。我到了Canal街。现在该吃我们的中餐了。这是你已经光顾了多长时间的地方？40年。听着，如果愚蠢的钱在纽约，我们就不会每天吃烧烤了。
We'd be eating Chinese every day. And Ro Pop would be our number one place. This is actually the right way. This would be like 15 minutes. Right? Here's the tip. I'll go to the upstairs. I'll go to the upstairs. I'll go to the basement. I'll wait a long time for this meal. Wait, two-five. Right here. What do you think? What do you think? It's not barbecue. What do you think? I'm so good.
我们会每天吃中国菜。而Ro Pop会是我们最常去的地方。这样做才对。这样大约需要15分钟。对吧？给你个建议。我会上楼去。我会上楼去。我会去地下室。我会为了这顿饭等很长时间。等等，两份五。就在这儿。你怎么看？你怎么看？这不是烧烤。你怎么看？我太厉害了。
And I'm so impressed. And I think we did a pretty good job. Now we did a problem ourselves too. Dumb money in New York. So what's next? Next is me going back to the hotel room and figuring out how I'm going to explain how to turn 20K into 10 million in eight minutes. That sounds like something that would be perfect for you to figure out by 7.30 tomorrow morning? Yes. I'll go to the hotel room early.
我真的很感动。我觉得我们做得挺不错的。现在我们自己也面临一个问题。笨钱在纽约。那么接下来呢？接下来就是我回到酒店房间，想办法解释如何在八分钟内把2万变成1000万。听起来这正好适合在明天早上7:30之前搞定，对吧？是的。我会早点回酒店房间。
Yes, we will. I like my raisin brown with no raisins. I can't believe I've got to publicly speak in a few minutes. I can't even keep my eyes open. I was up until like three in the morning setting up our books at the registration table downstairs. It's 2.30 in the morning and I'm here putting dumb money stickers on books. Meanwhile, in about six hours, I have to be up to speak to 500 people.
好的，我们会的。我喜欢我的葡萄干面包，不加葡萄干。我真不敢相信我马上就要公开演讲了。我都快睁不开眼睛了。我昨晚忙到凌晨三点，才在楼下的登记桌上摆好我们的书。现在是凌晨两点半，我还在给书贴一些无聊的标签。与此同时，大约六个小时后，我就得起床去给500人演讲。
But that's how we do to dumb money. We keep it real. And I was like, oh my God, what if I was setting them up at the wrong conference? Do you know how many conferences there are in the hotel? I just realized that. Like I never really saw any proof that that table I was setting them up was the investment conference. You sent me a picture of it and I was thinking the same thing. I have no idea what's going on. I have no idea. Our books are going to be set up over some conferences or registration tables. Off to a great start this morning. $20,000 into $10 million in eight minutes. I'm going to talk about it. I'm going to talk about it. I kind of know what I'm going to talk about. Chris Camillo uses data to trade. But he's a guy serving Twitter and looking at trends. And he has this new thing on YouTube called dumbmoney.tv. It's hilarious. If you get a chance, watch it. I'm telling you it's worth it. Chris is an all-around good guy. Chris, please come up.
但这就是我们对待傻钱的方法。我们保持真实。我当时心想，天哪，如果我把他们安排错了会议怎么办？你知道酒店有多少个会议吗？我才意识到这一点。我从未真正确认过我给他们安排的那个桌子是否是投资会议。你给我发了一张照片，我当时也在想同样的事。我完全不知道发生了什么。我不知道。我们的书可能会被安排在一些会议或登记桌上。今天早上开了个好头。8分钟内将2万美元变成1000万美元。我会谈谈这件事。我大概知道我要谈什么。克里斯·卡米洛使用数据进行交易。但他是个在推特上关注趋势的人。他在YouTube上有个新节目叫dumbmoney.tv，非常搞笑。如果有机会一定要看看，我保证值回票价。克里斯是个非常好的人。克里斯，请上来。
So I had a really well thought out speaking session today and a really professional title about alternative data and how to use it as a retail trader. And Jason, you know, Razna here, with Ben Zinga called me a couple nights ago and he said, yeah, you're not doing that. They just want to hear how you turn 20K into 10 million. I was like, oh God, here we go. And I get it. I totally get that's what you want to hear. But the problem is this is a strategy that I've refined and tweaked over 20 years. And I now have, I think, about eight minutes to try to kind of, I guess, reveal that strategy. I will do my very best in the next eight minutes. I'm not sure how well it will go. While I'm on my game, when I'm really on my game, I'm able to accurately and quickly depict the present. My success is entirely dependent on my ability to early detect change. Because when there's change, there's opportunity.
所以我今天准备了一场非常周密的演讲，并且起了个很专业的题目，关于另类数据以及如何利用它作为一个零售交易者。而杰森，你知道的，就是这里的Razna，他几天前跟我通了电话说，你不用讲这些，他们只想听你怎么把2万变成了1000万。我当时心想，天哪，又来了。我明白，也完全理解大家想听这类故事。但问题是，这个策略是我经过20年不断完善和调试的，现在我有大概八分钟的时间来分享这个策略。我会尽最大努力在接下来的八分钟内做到这一点，但不确定效果会如何。当我状态佳的时候，我能迅速准确地描述现状。我的成功完全依赖于我能否提前察觉变化，因为变化中蕴藏着机会。
What's the one thing you know now about trading and investing like you wish you had known when you started? I think when you get started, you're way overconfident, thinking that you can do anything and you could beat the more. And you really don't know what the hell you're doing, right? I mean, I lost a lot of money early on in my trading career. And I wish I would have just chilled out and spent more time learning and playing with smaller dollars and realizing just how stupid I was at the time. Does it show time? Yeah, the panel stuff is this is the easy part. I don't even need to talk if I don't want to, but I usually do.
你现在对交易和投资有什么新的认识，是当初刚开始时希望能知道的？ 我觉得刚开始的时候，人会过于自信，认为自己无所不能，能打败市场。而实际上你根本不知道自己在做什么，对吧？ 我在交易生涯早期亏了很多钱。真希望当时能冷静一下，多花点时间学习，只用小额资金尝试，认识到自己当时有多么无知。现在看来，是不是这展现出一种成长？是的，讨论部分对我来说反而是最简单的部分，我甚至可以选择不说什么，但通常我还是会参与讨论。
See a lot within the social media, with Twitter, with Telegram channels and all, and getting ideas and trying to see where the sentiment is. It's great if you found something interesting, but if the market has already fully digested that news and information, it's worthless, right? This whole social arbitrage trading strategy, not the easiest thing to condense down into a short YouTube video, but I think this conference is actually a really good way to let you guys in on the strategy that Chris kind of came up with 20 years ago, and we've been using ever since. If you find this episode helpful, let us know, give it a thumbs up, let us know in the comments. We'd love your feedback.
在社交媒体上，尤其是 Twitter 和 Telegram 频道等平台上，我们可以看到很多信息，获取想法并尝试了解市场情绪。如果你发现了有趣的信息，那很好，但如果市场已经完全吸收了这些新闻和信息，那就没有价值了，对吧？这种社交套利交易策略并不容易在一个简短的 YouTube 视频中解释清楚，但我认为这个会议确实是个很好的方式，让你们了解克里斯大约20年前创立的策略，我们从那时起一直在使用。如果你觉得这期节目对你有帮助，请告诉我们，点赞并在评论中分享你的看法。我们很乐意收到你的反馈。
If you discover something interesting, the first question you have to ask yourself is, does this thing have the potential to majorly impact this company positively or negatively, right? And if the answer to that question is yes, the next question you have to ask yourself is, does the market already know about this thing that's going to impact this company? And if the answer to that is yes, then you have no trade, but the answer to that is no. That means you have an arbitrage opportunity. The arbitrage, the information that you surface.
如果你发现了一些有趣的事情，首先要问自己的是，这件事情是否有可能对公司产生重大正面或负面影响，对吧？如果答案是肯定的，那么接下来的问题是，市场是否已经知道这件会影响公司的事情。如果市场已经知道，那么就没有交易机会；但如果市场还不知道，那么你就有了一个套利的机会，这是因为你掌握了别人还不知道的信息。
So then you have to ask yourself another question, which is based on the time period that you think it will take for the market to learn about this information that you've uncovered, whether it's a product that's becoming more trendy. If it's consumer adoption of the company's products or services, increasing or decreasing, is there something else that's likely to happen in that trade window that's more important than the thing you discover? An example, let's say you discover, you know, Lulu lemon products this season are the best curated yoga pants they've made in five years, and they're selling out every day, right? That's huge. And for some odd reason, the market doesn't appreciate that. They haven't figured that out yet. But there's a lawsuit against Lulu lemon, and the verdict is coming out next week, right?
那么，你需要问自己另一个问题，这个问题是基于你认为市场需要多长时间才能了解到你所发现的信息。比如，一个产品正在变得更加流行，或者消费者对公司产品或服务的接受程度是在增加还是减少。在这个交易窗口期内，是否还有其他事情可能发生，并且比你发现的事情更重要呢？
举个例子，假设你发现本季Lululemon的产品是他们五年来设计最好的瑜伽裤，每天都被抢购一空。这是非常重大的信息，而市场出于某种奇怪的原因并没有注意到这一点。但与此同时，Lululemon正面临一场诉讼，判决将在下周公布。
And if the verdict comes out negative, it could be a multi-billion dollar loss for the company. That is potentially more important than the fact that their products are selling out right now, right? So one is the information you surface, meaningful enough to move the needle for one or more publicly traded companies. If so, is the information that you surface already widely known by the investing public? If it's not, you have an arbitrage opportunity, then you just need to ask yourself one more question, which is, is there something that could happen to that company within your trade window that would screw up your trade?
如果判决结果不利，对公司来说可能会导致数十亿美元的损失。这可能比他们现在的产品销售一空更重要，对吧？因此，首先你要考虑你所提供的信息是否足够有意义，能够对一家或多家上市公司的股价产生影响。如果是这样，那么你提供的信息是否已经被投资大众广泛知晓？如果没有，那你就有套利的机会，然后你只需问自己一个问题，那就是，在你的交易窗口期内，是否有可能发生某些情况，影响你的交易计划？
Fun times here at the Binsenga conference, you were awesome in your opening remarks. And I thought I was doing a. It's terrible. I was going on three hours' sleep. I was reading off my notes. I just wrote last night. I was terrible, but it is what it is. It's over. Networking time here at the conference. This isn't our only conference. We're going to be going to FinCon coming up in not too long at all. These conferences are really mainly designed to pick up more merch. At our table, we're only giving away books and stickers.
在Binsenga会议上度过了一段愉快的时光，你在开场致辞中的表现真是太棒了。而我觉得自己表现得很糟糕。我只睡了三个小时，念着我昨晚才写的笔记，表现得很差，不过事情已经过去了。现在是会议上的社交时间。这不是我们唯一的会议，很快我们还将参加FinCon。举办这些会议的主要目的是收集更多的周边商品。在我们的展台上，我们只赠送书籍和贴纸。
Let's see what we have over here. I'm loading up on merch. It's like five or ten minutes. It's really appreciate. Just kidding. I wouldn't do that. It's probably taped together anyway. What is your favorite part of conferences? It's the owner. Look out. It's the whole boy. I'm just really happy to see daylight. We've been trapped in a ballroom all day. Nastiest ballroom. I hate that. It's time for lunch. We have a lot to talk about. We do. Anytime someone tells me they have the best place in Manhattan to go to lunch and they take me through Times Square. Great. I'm sure they don't know what they're talking about.
让我们看看这边有什么。我准备买一些商品。大概需要五到十分钟。我真的很感激。开玩笑的。我不会这么做的，反正东西可能都是用胶带粘起来的。你最喜欢会议的哪个部分？是主办方。小心点。全都是男孩。我真的很高兴能看到阳光。我们整天都被困在一个舞厅里。真是个糟糕的舞厅。我讨厌那种地方。现在是午餐时间了。我们有很多话要谈。是的，每当有人告诉我他们知道曼哈顿最好的午餐地点，然后带我走过时代广场，我就知道他们一定不懂行。
Bringing all of Chris's advice into question now. How long have you been coming here? I've been here one time. There was about ten years ago. This is at the top of your list. There's about six years ago. There's not many options in Midtown. It's the best Cuban in Midtown. Right? Do you think it's the best Cuban even bigger than it is? I'm so hungry. We've been here for 49 years. Yes. For a reason, right? For a reason. Have I disappointed yet on this trip? You have not. Try that.
现在开始对克里斯给的建议产生怀疑了。你来这里多久了？我只来过这里一次。大约是十年前的事了。这家店在你的榜单上排第一。那是大约六年前的事了。中城没多少选择。这是中城最好的古巴菜，对吧？你觉得这是中城最大的古巴餐馆吗？我好饿。我们在这里已经开了49年了。对吧？是有原因的，对吧？在这次旅行中我让你失望过吗？你没有。你试试吧。
I don't wait. Thank you. It looks great. Thank you. That looks good, man. Is that bacon around there? Is this bacon around? That is amazing. It's a good one. It's a good one. Is that bacon around there? It's just bacon around. That is amazing. That is amazing. Get in the trap. I got to give you credit, Dave. You said that we would learn something today at this conference, and I said, we're not going to learn anything. I've been doing this for too long to learn about trading from someone else. I didn't even know what this conference was.
我不等了。谢谢。这看起来很棒。谢谢。那个看起来不错，兄弟。那是培根吗？这是培根吗？真是太棒了。这个不错。这个不错。那是培根吗？就是培根。真是太惊人了。真是太惊人了。进入这个圈套。我得感谢你，戴夫。你说我们今天在这个会议上会学到些什么，我之前说我们不会学到任何东西。我从事这行太久了，不相信还能从别人那儿学到交易知识。我甚至都不知道这个会议是什么。
I just knew it was active traders, and we are not active traders. We maybe trade once or twice a year with high conviction. But I'm glad we went in with an open mind because we did learn something. We met a lady who runs a futures firm, and she taught us about futures, which is really relevant. You happen to be in the market for futures or some way to invest in oat milk, and there's no public oat milk company, so there is oat as a commodity on the futures market.
我只知道那是活跃的交易者，而我们并不是活跃交易者。我们可能一年只会进行一到两次我们很有信心的交易。但我很高兴我们抱着开放的态度去了解，因为我们确实学到了东西。我们遇到了一位女士，她经营一家期货公司，并教我们关于期货的知识，这真的很有用。假如你想在期货市场投资，或者想通过某种方式投资燕麦奶，但目前没有上市的燕麦奶公司，那么可以通过期货市场上作为商品的燕麦进行投资。
I think the goal today's episode is this is the first time we're talking about our social or trading methodology for trading public markets. I hope we piqued your interest. If we did, there's a lot more of this to come. Obviously, we have trade boards, but over the course of the next year, we're going to be diving deeper into the methodology. I think today in this conference is actually a really good way to introduce the trading methodology. It's not a day trading. It's not a system. It's just a way of thinking.
我认为今天这一集的目标是，这是我们第一次讨论用于交易公共市场的社交或交易方法。我希望能引起你的兴趣。如果我们成功吸引了你，那接下来还有更多相关内容。此外，我们有交易板块，但在接下来的这一年里，我们将深入探讨这种方法。我认为今天的会议实际上是一个介绍这种交易方法的很好方式。它不是日内交易，也不是一个系统，而只是一种思维方式。
Well, you just said it better than I've ever said. It literally is a way of thinking. Here's the thing, if you have an interest in learning about this type of trading that we do called social or trading, follow the link. Give us your address and we'll send you a free book. Send you a free book laughing at Wall Street. By the way, how cool is that? I met two people today who told me that they randomly bought my book in a bookstore like five years ago, and it's the first investment book he ever read. That's like, it was my dream. That was my dream, all right?
好吧，你刚才说得比我以往都好。真的是一种思维方式。这样吧，如果你对我们所做的这种社交或交易感兴趣，请点击链接。给我们你的地址，我们会寄给你一本免费书。《嘲笑华尔街》。顺便说一句，这是不是很酷？今天我遇到了两个人，他们告诉我，大约五年前他们在书店里随机买了我的书，这是他们读的第一本投资书。这就像是实现了我的梦想。这就是我的梦想，好吗？
Every time we travel, we cram so much into such a small period of time. Can't we just like book an extra day in sight see? No. But that's going to do it for this episode. Thank you guys so much for watching. We're done money. We'll see you next week.
每次我们旅行时，总是在短时间内安排很多行程。我们能不能多订一天用于观光呢？不行。不过这一集就先到这里了。非常感谢大家的观看。我们的预算用完了。我们下周再见。