The Dark Heart of Trump's Foreign Policy

以下是这段对话的中文翻译： 埃兹拉·克莱恩和法里德·扎卡利亚的这次对话深入探讨了外交政策中的“特朗普主义”的核心，探讨了它对国际秩序和美国未来联盟的潜在影响。他们剖析了唐纳德·特朗普及其顾问（如JD Vance）所信奉的世界观，并将其与美国和欧洲几十年来所倡导的基于规则的传统国际体系进行了对比。 扎卡利亚认为，特朗普从根本上拒绝开放的国际体系，将美国视为一个“冤大头”，为其他国家提供了该体系的保障并让其受益。他强调了特朗普长期以来坚信日本和欧洲在经济上“敲诈勒索”美国，并在安全上搭便车。克莱恩反驳说，特朗普的支持者认为美国受到国际规则和法律的不当约束，使其无法运用其巨大的影响力来实现其目标。他们将特朗普的行动视为一种“解放美国手脚”的尝试，使其能够更积极地征收关税并利用其军事力量。 扎卡利亚承认美国拥有巨大的力量，但他认为，追求单独的、可能有利的双边协议将会破坏联盟，特别是与加拿大等经济与美国密不可分的国家。他还强调了工业化国家现有关税的相对微不足道，指出与西方联盟内部信任和稳定性的丧失相比，“挤压”这些国家所获得的收益将微乎其微。 对话随后转向特朗普政府使用的具体工具，特别是关税。克莱恩指出了它们在应用上的不一致，质疑它们的目的是为了将制造业迁回国内、增加收入，还是仅仅为了欺凌其他国家。扎卡利亚认为，特朗普将关税视为一种强大的单边武器，但也承认市场往往会做出负面反应。他预测会出现关税的报复性螺旋，这可能导致全球保护主义加剧，他认为这是一种灾难。 讨论转向了“美国优先”这个含糊不清的概念。克莱恩认为，它的目标仍然定义不清，缺乏对在这个新时代中美国成功会是什么样子的连贯愿景。扎卡利亚认为，“美国优先”的驱动力是摆脱全球化和国际组织的束缚。 对话转移到特朗普对领土扩张的新兴趣，包括吞并加拿大或格陵兰的可能性。扎卡利亚认为这是一种源于19世纪地缘政治的“过时”世界观。他和克莱恩都认为，对普京希望包括乌克兰在内的势力范围采取宽容态度，以及普遍缺乏对中国扩张主义的批评，进一步例证了特朗普对旧世界地缘政治感兴趣。 两人随后讨论了特朗普和JD Vance可能将美国与俄罗斯和匈牙利等专制国家结盟的可能性。扎卡利亚指出，俄罗斯的普京将性别流动等自由主义思想视为对其权力的威胁。克莱恩认为，他们所设想的联盟不是自由民主国家之间的正常联盟，而是那些对特朗普的身份和他的目标有真正的意识形态亲和力的政权之间的联盟。 克莱恩和扎卡利亚探讨了对特朗普外交政策的两种相互竞争的解释：一种是他试图在现有国际体系内获得更好的交易，另一种是他旨在从根本上重塑体系本身，可能沿着保守力量联盟的路线，以阻止自由主义的浪潮。 他们辩论了特朗普做法的潜在好处，认为这可能会迫使欧洲增加对其国防的投资并振兴其经济。然而，他们也承认削弱北约和推动欧洲脱离美国的风险，这可能会导致一个美国无法通过其对欧盟的影响力来“统治世界”的世界。 最后，对话转向了美国国际开发署（USAID）。克莱恩和扎卡利亚描述了一个政府，该政府将该机构妖魔化为一个资金过剩的自由主义机构，对非美国人的生活缺乏价值。扎卡利亚认为，这与整个历史的价值观背道而驰，即完全不重视美国以外的世界的生命和潜在福祉。 在整个对话中，克莱恩和扎卡利亚都在努力解决“特朗普主义”固有的不稳定性和矛盾，强调它破坏既定联盟、破坏国际合作以及开启全球不确定性新时代的潜力。

This conversation between Ezra Klein and Fareed Zakaria delves into the core of the "Trump Doctrine" in foreign policy, exploring its potential impact on the international order and the future of American alliances. They dissect the worldview espoused by Donald Trump and his advisors like JD Vance, contrasting it with the traditional, rules-based international system that the US and Europe have championed for decades. Zakaria argues that Trump fundamentally rejects the open international system, viewing the US as a "sucker" who has underwritten the system to the benefit of other countries. He emphasizes Trump's long-held belief that Japan and Europe have been "ripping off" the US economically and free-riding on security. Klein counters by presenting the perspective of Trump's supporters, who believe that the US is unduly constrained by international rules and laws, preventing it from wielding its immense leverage to achieve its goals. They see Trump's actions as an attempt to "untie America's hands," allowing it to impose tariffs and leverage its military might more aggressively. Zakaria concedes that the US possesses significant power but argues that pursuing individual, potentially advantageous bilateral deals will fracture alliances, especially with countries like Canada whose economy is inextricably tied to the US. He also underscores the relative insignificance of existing tariffs in the industrialized world, noting that the gains from "squeezing" countries will be minimal compared to the loss of trust and stability within the Western Alliance. The conversation then moves to the specific tools employed by the Trump administration, particularly tariffs. Klein points out the inconsistency in their application, questioning whether they are intended to onshore manufacturing, raise revenue, or simply bully nations. Zakaria suggests Trump views tariffs as a potent unilateral weapon, but acknowledges that markets tend to react negatively. He predicts a retaliatory spiral of tariffs that could lead to increased protectionism globally, a prospect he deems disastrous. The discussion turns to the ambiguous notion of "America First." Klein argues that its objectives remain poorly defined, lacking a coherent vision of what American success would look like in this new era. Zakaria suggests that "America First" is driven by a desire to break free from the constraints of globalism and international organizations. The conversation shifts to Trump's renewed fascination with territorial expansion, including the possibility of annexing Canada or Greenland. Zakaria views this as an "anachronistic" worldview rooted in the geopolitics of the 19th century. He and Klein contend that a benign view towards Putin’s desire for a sphere of influence including Ukraine, and a general lack of criticism for Chinese expansionism further exemplifies that Trump is interested in old world geopolitics. The two then discuss the possibility of Trump and JD Vance aligning America with authoritarian countries like Russia and Hungary. Zakaria notes that Russia's Putin sees liberal ideas, like gender fluidity, as threats to his power. Klein suggests that the alliance they envision is not the normal alliance between liberal democracies but between regimes that have genuine ideological affinity for who Trump is and what he wants. Klein and Zakaria explore two competing interpretations of Trump's foreign policy: one where he seeks to get a better deal within the existing international system, and another where he aims to fundamentally remake the system itself, perhaps along the lines of a league of conservative powers holding back the tide of liberalism. They debate the potential benefits of Trump's approach, suggesting that it might force Europe to invest more in its defense and revitalize its economy. However, they acknowledge the risks of eroding NATO and driving Europe towards independence from the US, potentially leading to a world where the US can no longer "run the world" through its influence over the European Union. Finally, the conversation turns to USAID. Klein and Zakaria describe an administration that has demonized the agency as an overfunded liberal institution with a lack of value towards non-American lives. Zakaria argues that in a departure from values from throughout history, that the lives and potential well-being of the world, outside America, is not valued at all. Throughout the conversation, Klein and Zakaria wrestle with the inherent instability and contradictions of the "Trump Doctrine," highlighting its potential to disrupt established alliances, undermine international cooperation, and usher in a new era of global uncertainty.