BYD Wants to Work With Tesla / Elon: Count the Hours / "Seismic Changes" Coming ⚡️

以下是Dylan Loomis的“Electrified”节目的一集摘要，重点介绍了讨论的关键点和新闻： **特斯拉的文化与表现：** Dylan首先强调了特斯拉的核心竞争力和紧迫性，引用了一个关于埃隆·马斯克在Model 3生产过程中亲力亲为的故事。这个轶事突出了特斯拉对效率和速度的关注，即使是几分钟也很重要，而不仅仅是几天。Dylan承认，特斯拉的重点已经从仅仅用工程实力对抗FUD（恐惧、不确定性和怀疑）转变为发展成为一家人工智能公司，这需要投资者的耐心。 然后，他分析了特斯拉中国最近的销售数据，指出Model Y的销量环比下降（下降41.6%），并且2024年第一周的销量同比下降（下降9.7%），与2023年第四季度和2023年第一季度第九周相比。他将部分下降归因于新款Model Y的过渡，但也注意到二月份的批发数字同比下降了近50%。目前后轮驱动Model Y的交付时间为2-4周，而长续航全轮驱动版本的交付时间为6-10周。 **竞争与市场动态：** Dylan将特斯拉Model 3在中国的销量与小米的新款SU7进行了比较，指出SU7在类似的时间段内售出了约162,000辆，而Model 3售出了153,000辆。他指出，SU7的大部分销量都在国内，而特斯拉则出口Model 3。他承认SU7的成功和高需求，某些配置的等待时间长达34-37周。 即将推出的小米YU7，这是一款直接与Model Y竞争的SUV，被强调为特斯拉在中国面临的重大竞争挑战。尽管Model Y在一月份在全球电动汽车销量中（包括BEV和插电式混合动力车）保持领先地位，但由于特斯拉的过渡，预计二月份的这一领先优势将会缩小。 **法律和地缘政治发展：** 该播客报道了特斯拉在特拉华州的法律胜利，验证了其迁往德克萨斯州的举动。这涉及到驳回一项使公司重新注册无效的企图，与之前关于Trade Desk迁往内华达州的裁决类似。法律界正在认识到一种“DEXIT”（特拉华州退出）趋势，这可能会影响全国范围内的公司法。 Dylan讨论了关税的演变情况，指出有可能与墨西哥和加拿大就北美自由贸易协定涵盖的商品达成解决方案。商务部长提到正在进行的讨论以及进行调整的可能性。他还提到美国和乌克兰之间可能达成的矿产协议，重点是关键原材料。 **擎天柱机器人和分析师的观点：** 该播客引用了摩根士丹利的Adam Jonas对特斯拉擎天柱机器人潜力的分析。Jonas认为，擎天柱机器人如果能占据美国劳动力市场的1%，可能会使特斯拉的股价上涨100美元，相当于170万台机器人（占美国劳动力市场的1%）带来约3000亿美元的市值。CERN对此进行了扩展，预测1700万台机器人将带来3万亿美元的市值增长。 Dylan指出了计算的简单性，但也强调了Jonas的评估将每台机器人的利润贡献价值定为每年约5,800美元，CERN认为这很低。Dylan在承认Jonas对特斯拉的理解有所提高的同时，指出华尔街大多数分析师仍然认为擎天柱机器人没有价值，这表明未来一年估值可能会发生变化。 **其他新闻和发展：** * Waymo和Uber正在奥斯汀推出无人驾驶汽车服务，抢先特斯拉进入市场。 * 比亚迪表示愿意与特斯拉合作，减少汽油车的使用，并愿意分享技术，包括自动驾驶软件。鉴于地缘政治紧张局势和比亚迪的新自动驾驶系统，Dylan仍然持怀疑态度。 * 特斯拉在美国为Model 3提供0%的年利率融资。 * 特斯拉股价收于272.04美元，下跌4.43%，交易量高于平均水平。

Here's a summary of Dylan Loomis's "Electrified" episode, highlighting key points and news items discussed: **Tesla's Culture and Performance:** Dylan starts by emphasizing Tesla's core competency and urgency, referencing a story about Elon Musk's hands-on approach during Model 3 production. This anecdote underscores Tesla's focus on efficiency and speed, where even minutes mattered, not just days. Dylan acknowledges a shift in focus from simply battling FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) with engineering prowess to the evolution into an AI company, requiring patience from investors. He then analyzes Tesla China's recent sales data, noting a decline in Model Y sales quarter-over-quarter (down 41.6%) and year-over-year (down 9.7%) for the first week of Q1 2024 compared to Q4 2023 and week nine of Q1 2023. He attributes part of this decline to the changeover to the new Model Y but also notes that wholesale figures for February are down nearly 50% year-over-year. Delivery timelines for the rear-wheel-drive Model Y are currently 2-4 weeks, while the long-range all-wheel-drive version is 6-10 weeks. **Competition and Market Dynamics:** Dylan compares Tesla's Model 3 sales in China to Xiaomi's new SU7, noting that the SU7 has sold approximately 162,000 units against the Model 3's 153,000 over a similar period. He points out that most of SU7's sales are domestic, while Tesla exports Model 3s. He acknowledges the SU7's success and high demand, with wait times for certain trims reaching 34-37 weeks. The upcoming launch of Xiaomi's YU7, an SUV directly competing with the Model Y, is highlighted as a significant competitive challenge for Tesla in China. Although the Model Y held the top spot globally for electric vehicle sales (including BEVs and plug-in hybrids) in January, this lead is expected to shrink with February's figures due to Tesla's changeover. **Legal and Geopolitical Developments:** The podcast covers Tesla's legal victory in Delaware, validating its move to Texas. This involved the rejection of a bid to invalidate the reincorporation, mirroring a previous ruling regarding Trade Desk's move to Nevada. The legal community is recognizing a "DEXIT" (Delaware exit) trend, which could impact corporate law nationwide. Dylan discusses the evolving situation with tariffs, noting the potential for a resolution with Mexico and Canada regarding goods covered by NAFTA. The Commerce Secretary mentioned ongoing discussions and the possibility of adjustments. He also mentions a potential minerals deal between the US and Ukraine, focusing on critical raw materials. **Optimus and Analyst Perspectives:** The podcast references Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley's analysis of Tesla's Optimus robot potential. Jonas suggested that every 1% of the US labor force captured by Optimus could add $100 to Tesla's share price, equating to roughly $300 billion in market capitalization for 1.7 million robots (1% of the US labor force). CERN expanded on this, projecting a $3 trillion market cap increase with 17 million bots. Dylan points out the simplicity of the math but also highlights that Jonas's assessment values each bot's profit contribution at approximately $5,800 per year, which CERN considers low. While acknowledging Jonas's improved understanding of Tesla, Dylan notes that most Wall Street analysts still attribute $0 value to the Optimus opportunity, suggesting a potential shift in valuation over the next year. **Other News and Developments:** * Waymo and Uber are launching driverless car services in Austin, beating Tesla to the market. * BYD has expressed a willingness to cooperate with Tesla to reduce petrol car usage, offering to share technologies, including autonomous driving software. Dylan remains skeptical given geopolitical tensions and BYD's new autonomous system. * Tesla is offering 0% APR financing on the Model 3 in the US. * Tesla shares closed at $272.04, down 4.43%, with higher than average trading volume.