Trump & Elon: Unexpected Allies in the Fight Against China

这段对话围绕着美国和中国之间不断变化的动态关系展开，尤其是在制造业、技术和全球主导地位的背景下。发言者讨论了美国对廉价商品的追求如何无意中赋予了中国权力，使其成为制造业强国，超越了之前的工业领导者，如日本和韩国。 讨论首先提到特朗普政府最初对中国汽车进口征收的关税，甚至在任何中国汽车出现在美国道路上之前。拜登政府进一步加码，提高了关税并阻止带有中国软件/硬件的汽车进入美国。随后，对话转向如何与一个先进的中国打交道。 中国制造业的能力被强调，其规模之庞大导致许多公司都在进行价格战，没有人真正盈利。中国的出口能力非常巨大。它已经变成了“出口或死亡”。 与会者考虑了一种情景，即美国和中国达成协议，允许中国公司进入美国市场，以换取美国企业在中国企业中拥有更大的所有权。对话涉及比亚迪、特斯拉、埃隆·马斯克以及他与两国政府的关系。然而，发言者指出，中国的商业行为通常是关于利用杠杆的，他们认为目前他们占据了上风。 讨论阐述了外国公司在中国面临的困境，并用宾夕法尼亚州立大学在哥伦布挑战俄亥俄州立大学的比赛进行类比。党被认为是无处不在的，类似于上帝。 小组承认，与中国公司合作没有“双赢”。通常所谓的双赢实际上是中国赢两次，而且他们真的正在考虑在这方面采取更无情的策略。 一位与会者建议坚持美国公司在合资企业中拥有多数股权，以保护美国利益。 尽管存在潜在的交易和关系，但与会者担心中国在制造业和供应链方面的长期投资将继续产生效益，即便他们正在向欧洲、南美、非洲和亚洲扩张。 发言者探讨了封闭式政策和高额关税是否能让美国重建其制造业基地。然而，他们对美国能否在未来10-20年内赶上中国的势头表示怀疑。 中国的劳动力人口挑战也得到了承认，但与会者担心，如果美国不采取行动，中国将继续加速发展。 对话还涉及人工智能和机器人技术的潜在革命。与会者表示希望这些技术能够使美国重新获得其制造业的统治地位。中国也有人类机器人方面的计划。 美国拥有的优势是言论自由。自由创新的能力难以衡量，但却是真实存在的。 埃隆·马斯克被认为是卓越的。他以快速的速度建立工厂，并谈判获得了100%的所有权，这是前所未有的。 讨论了特斯拉的FSD在中国推出以及潜在的隐私问题，并提出了本地化技术以保护数据的可能解决方案。 贸易谈判中强调了互惠原则，质疑如果中国限制美国公司像FSD这样的技术，为什么美国应该允许华为等公司的技术进入美国。 讨论强调了美国追求低成本商品的文化层面。有人指出，尽可能专注于最低成本最终会损害劳动力。高品质的工作岗位至关重要，它们能带来本地供应链和本地运输/物流。 讨论强调了中国的国家资本主义体系，在这种体系下，补贴和贷款被用来主导产业。一位与会者讲述了他在一家工厂看到用城市贷款购买机器人的经历。这些因素进一步复杂化了美国与中国竞争的能力。 解决方案是拥抱机器人技术和人工智能。这将迫使每小时的价格降低。与会者设想了一个制造业劳动力被更便宜的AI驱动的机器人取代的未来。 从文化角度来看，中国将自己视为“中央王国”，寻求重获其在世界中心的地位。中国正在执行一项使命，人民知道自己想要什么，并正在为此努力。 根本问题是，美国能否屹立于中国日益增长的影响力之下？要么拥抱技术，要么被超越。讨论涉及人工智能和人/机器人，否则你将给予他们绝对的权力。 要对抗中国，确实需要与日本、韩国、印度联合起来，形成一个统一战线，以对抗几乎是无敌的中国制造机器。

The conversation revolves around the shifting dynamics between the United States and China, particularly in the context of manufacturing, technology, and global dominance. The speakers discuss how the US pursuit of cheap goods has inadvertently empowered China to become a manufacturing powerhouse, eclipsing previous industrial leaders like Japan and Korea. The discussion starts with the initial tariffs that the Trump administration imposed on Chinese car imports, even before there were any Chinese cars on the road in the US. The Biden administration has doubled down by raising tariffs and blocking cars with Chinese software/hardware. The conversation then shifts to how to engage with an advanced China. China's manufacturing capabilities are highlighted as being so vast that many companies are having price wars, no one is really making profits. China's export capacity is enormous. It has become "export or die". The panelists consider a scenario where the US and China strike a deal, allowing Chinese companies access to the US market in exchange for greater American ownership in Chinese businesses. The conversation touches on BYD, Tesla, Elon Musk and his relationships with both governments. The speakers note, however, that Chinese business practices are often about leverage, and they feel they currently hold the upper hand. The discussion illustrates the struggles foreign companies face in China, drawing an analogy to Penn State playing Ohio State in Columbus. The party is seen as all-present, similar to God. The panel acknowledges that there's no "win-win" when partnering with a Chinese company. It's generally win-win is China wins twice, and they are really thinking about being more ruthless in those terms. One panelist suggests insisting on American companies having a majority stake in joint ventures to protect US interests. Despite potential deals and relationships, the panelists express concern that China's long-term investments in manufacturing and supply chains will continue to yield benefits, even as they expand to Europe, South America, Africa, and Asia. The speakers explore whether a closed-door policy with prohibitive tariffs could allow the US to rebuild its manufacturing base. However, they express skepticism that the US can catch up to China's momentum in the next 10-20 years. China's demographic challenges are also acknowledged, but panelists fear that if the US doesn't step up, China will just continue to accelerate. The conversation touches on the potential revolution in artificial intelligence and robotics. Panelists express hope that these technologies could enable the US to regain its manufacturing dominance. China also has plans for human robotics. The advantage the US has is freedom of speech. The ability to innovate freely is hard to measure but is real. Elon Musk is considered exceptional. He has built plants fast and has negotiated 100% ownership, which is unprecedented. The rollout of Tesla’s FSD in China and potential privacy concerns are discussed, suggesting a possible solution of localized technology to safeguard data. The principle of reciprocity in trade negotiations is emphasized, questioning why the US should allow technologies from companies like Huawei if China restricts access to American technologies like FSD. The cultural aspect of the US's pursuit of low-cost goods is highlighted. The point is made that focusing on the lowest cost possible for things will hurt the labor force in the long run. The importance of high-quality jobs that lead to local supply chains and local transportation/logistics. The discussion highlights China's state capitalism system, where subsidies and loans are used to dominate industries. One person talked about being in a factory where robots were purchased with loans from the city. These factors further complicate the US's ability to compete. The solution is to embrace robotics and AI. That forces the price per hour to be less. Panelists envision a future where manufacturing labor is replaced by cheaper AI-powered robots. A cultural perspective is discussed, with China viewing itself as the "Middle Kingdom," seeking to regain its place at the center of the world. China is on a mission, the people know what they want and are working toward it. The underlying question is, can the United States stand tall to the growing presence of China? Either embrace technologies or be overtaken. The discussion touches upon artificial intelligence and human/robotics or you give them absolute power. To take on the Chinese it does take getting together with the Japanese, the Koreans, Indians to form a united front to counter what otherwise, you know, almost an invincible manufacturing machine that is China.