Trump, Europe, Ukraine and the Uncertain World Order | TED Explains the World with Ian Bremmer

好的，以下是内容的中文翻译： **特朗普2.0时代的全球格局：一个解体的世界** 伊恩·布雷默首先讨论了假设的特朗普总统第二个任期开始一个月后的世界局势。 虽然美国保持着其经济和技术的主导地位，但布雷默认为，政治格局已经发生了巨大的变化，美国正在积极地瓦解它曾经倡导的全球秩序。 这包括对北约、多边机构、一贯的法治和民主推广的兴趣减弱，使美国成为地缘政治风险的主要驱动因素。 **欧洲危机：从慕尼黑到德国大选** 布雷默描述了慕尼黑安全会议上戏剧性的一幕，当时副总统J.D. Vance发表了一篇颇具争议的演讲，批评欧洲领导人压制言论自由，并被“觉醒思想病毒”感染。 Vance对德国阻止极右翼政党“德国另类选择党”（AFD）的防火墙的明确攻击，以及他拒绝与德国总理会面，引发了愤怒。 布雷默强调了这一事件的重要性，它成为了随后德国大选的背景，在选举中，即将上任的总理谴责美国干涉德国民主，认为这类似于俄罗斯的干涉。 他认为，欧洲领导人感觉自己比美国落后一个选举周期，并且容易受到“特朗普主义”运动的影响。 布雷默讨论了新纳粹主义的抬头，尤其是在前东德地区，AFD党在年轻选民中获得了显著的支持。 虽然他认为美国境内的表演性纳粹敬礼只是在“钓鱼”，但他对AFD在德国日益增长的对排斥性政策和复仇主义民族主义的支持表示严重关切。 他认为这是对欧盟的生存威胁。 **乌克兰的命运：闭门交易** 对话转向乌克兰，特朗普总统被指责指责泽连斯基发动战争，甚至称他为独裁者。 布雷默指出，美国发起了一项联合国决议，该决议结束了战争，但没有承认乌克兰的边界。 他指出，美国打算撇开乌克兰，与俄罗斯达成一项协议，可能涉及控制乌克兰的自然资源。 这种情况突显了美国承诺的脆弱性，并在美国及其欧洲盟友之间造成了危险的裂痕。 **美俄关系** 布雷默驳斥了普京对特朗普拥有影响力这一阴谋论。 相反，他认为特朗普的行为源于结束战争、避免在乌克兰上花钱以及削弱欧洲的愿望，所有这些都符合他的“美国优先”议程。 他承认摩尔多瓦和格鲁吉亚等国家的脆弱性。 **加沙的未来：“里维埃拉之梦”和西岸的现实** 布雷默驳斥了特朗普最初提出的“加沙里维埃拉”计划以及强迫巴勒斯坦人流离失所的计划，认为这不现实，而且中东盟友无法接受。 虽然可能会出现一个更可持续的重建计划，但他承认西岸的局势同时升级，以色列军队撤离巴勒斯坦难民营，定居者占领更多土地。 他强调了以色列人对加沙人口减少的压倒性支持。 **中国的立场：一种反叙事正在出现** 布雷默承认中国面临的经济挑战，但指出新兴的创新迹象，尤其是在深度学习、人工智能、绿色氢能和电池领域。 虽然预计特朗普的政策将对中国经济造成损害，但布雷默认为中国在美国恢复单边主义中看到了巨大的优势。 他认为美国正在创造一个领导力真空，而中国正在迎头赶上。 **美国的国内格局：革命和盗贼统治** 布雷默将特朗普的国内议程描述为革命性的。 他讨论了亿万富翁日益不受约束的权力，特朗普与马斯克之间的关系成为了美国体制内制衡机制被侵蚀的象征。 他认为，美国正变得越来越像盗贼统治，金钱以前所未有的方式购买权力。 **民主的未来：前景堪忧** 虽然布雷默认为选举仍将是公平的，但他对公民参与度的下降、社会的原子化以及富人缺乏问责制表示深切担忧。 他批评了反DEI（多元化、公平和包容性）运动，认为它矫枉过正，强调了在多元化社会中建立联系的重要性。 **最后的想法：一个冲突的世界** 在回答关于第三次世界大战的问题时，布雷默表示，世界不会走向第三次世界大战，但绝对会进入一个更加冲突的世界。 布雷默认为世界将会有更多的暴力、恐怖主义和冲突。

Here's a summarization of the TED Explains the World episode featuring Ian Bremmer, focusing on the key points and arguments presented: **Global Landscape under Trump 2.0: A World Unwinding** Ian Bremmer begins by addressing the state of the world a month into a hypothetical second term of President Trump. While the US maintains its economic and technological dominance, Bremmer argues the political landscape has drastically shifted, with the US actively dismantling the global order it once championed. This includes diminishing interest in NATO, multilateral institutions, consistent rule of law, and democracy promotion, making the US a primary driver of geopolitical risk. **Europe in Crisis: From Munich to German Elections** Bremmer describes the dramatic scene at the Munich Security Conference, where Vice President J.D. Vance delivered a controversial speech criticizing European leaders for suppressing free speech and being infected by the "woke mind virus." Vance's explicit attack on Germany's firewall against the far-right AFD party, coupled with his refusal to meet with the German Chancellor, sparked outrage. Bremmer highlights the significance of this event as a backdrop to the subsequent German elections, where the incoming Chancellor condemned American intervention in German democracy as being akin to Russian interference. He argues that the European leaders are feeling like they are 1 election cycle behind the U.S. and are vulnerable to a "Trumpism" movement. Bremmer discusses the rise of neo-Nazism, particularly in former East Germany where the AFD party is gaining significant traction among younger voters. While he sees the performative Nazi salutes in the US as trolling, he expresses serious concern about the AFD's growing support for exclusionary policies and revanchist nationalism in Germany. He sees this as an existential threat to the EU. **Ukraine's Fate: A Deal Behind Closed Doors** The conversation turns to Ukraine, where President Trump is accused of blaming Zelensky for starting the war and even calling him a dictator. Bremmer notes the UN resolution initiated by the US, which ends the war but does not acknowledge the boundaries of Ukraine. He points to the US's intention to cut a deal with Russia over Ukraine's head, potentially involving control over Ukrainian natural resources. This scenario highlights the fragility of US commitments and creates a dangerous rift between the US and its European allies. **US-Russia Relations** Bremmer dismisses the conspiracy theory that Putin has leverage over Trump. Instead, he argues that Trump's actions stem from a desire to end wars, avoid spending money on Ukraine, and weaken Europe, all of which align with his "America First" agenda. He acknowledges the vulnerability of countries like Moldova and Georgia. **Gaza's Future: The Riviera Dream and West Bank Realities** Bremmer dismisses Trump's initial plan for a "Gaza Riviera" and the forced displacement of Palestinians as unrealistic and unacceptable to Middle Eastern allies. While a more sustainable reconstruction plan might emerge, he acknowledges the simultaneous escalation in the West Bank, with Israeli forces evacuating Palestinian refugee camps and settlers taking more land. He highlights the overwhelming support among Israelis for depopulating Gaza. **China's Position: A Counter-Narrative Emerges** Bremmer acknowledges China's economic challenges but points to emerging signs of innovation, particularly in deep learning, AI, green hydrogen, and batteries. While Trump's policies are expected to hurt China economically, Bremmer argues China sees huge advantages in the US's reversion to unilateralism. He believes a leadership vacuum is being created by US, and China is stepping up. **The US Domestic Landscape: Revolution and Kleptocracy** Bremmer describes Trump's domestic agenda as revolutionary. He discusses the increasingly unchecked power of billionaires, with the relationship between Trump and Musk becoming symbolic of the eroding checks and balances in the US system. He argues that the US is becoming increasingly kleptocratic, with money buying power in unprecedented ways. **Democracy's Future: A Troubled Outlook** While Bremmer believes elections will still be fair, he expresses deep concern about the erosion of civic engagement, the atomization of society, and the lack of accountability among the wealthy. He criticizes the anti-DEI movement for throwing the baby out with the bathwater, stressing the importance of connectedness in a diverse society. **Final Thoughts: A World of Conflict** In response to a question about World War III, Bremmer states that the world is not headed to WWIII, but is absolutely headed into a world of greater conflict. Bremmer believes the world is going to have more violence, terrorism, and conflict.