Report: Tesla's Global FSD Rollout / Is Figure for Real? / Tesla Adds Feature Back? ⚡️
发布时间 2025-02-21 00:11:51 来源
以下是 Dylan Lumis 的 "Electrified" 视频的摘要,涵盖关键点和市场影响:
**关税风波与石墨担忧:** 视频开始回顾了特朗普可能提出的汽车进口关税,这可能会给特斯拉带来竞争优势,因为它完全在美国制造。然而,更大的故事是美国和加拿大石墨生产商提出的请愿书,要求对从中国进口的石墨征收高达 920% 的关税。他们声称,由于政府补贴,中国石墨以不公平的低价“倾销”,威胁到新兴的美国石墨产业。美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)正在进行调查。 这可能会严重影响特斯拉,因为它严重依赖中国石墨作为电池负极材料,这占电池成本的 10-15%。罗斯资本合伙公司(Roth Capital Partners)估计,征收 920% 的关税可能会使负极材料成本增加 125%,从而可能使特斯拉的电池组成本增加数千美元。虽然特斯拉与 Syrah Resources 达成了石墨协议,但其产量可能无法迅速扩大。 即使是占全球电动汽车石墨需求 30% 以上的 LFP 电池也使用石墨。 Dylan 指出,特斯拉之前曾获得中国石墨关税的豁免。 这个问题突显了本地化供应链的重要性。
**Figure AI 与机器人进步:** Dylan 讨论了 Figure AI 的名为 Helix 的新型 VLA (视觉语言行动) 模型。 它结合了感知、语言理解和学习控制。 他们展示了 Helix 同时在两台机器人上工作,基于自然语言提示拾取不熟悉的物体,完全在嵌入式 GPU 上运行。 Dylan 敦促人们保持谨慎,因为 Figure 声称 Helix 允许新行为扩展,而无需编程或演示。 他指出,Figure 使用远程操控行为收集了大约 500 小时的数据。 如果是真的,这将是迈向通用机器人的重要一步。 Figure 声称他们的机器人现在可以即时执行任务,而无需特定于任务的演示或大量的手动编程。 Figure 的首席执行官 Brett 表示,2025 年将是生产和解决家庭机器人问题的关键一年。 Dylan 承认对 Figure 持怀疑态度,但他认为这份详细的报告很有前景,可能会巩固 Figure AI 的信誉。
**特斯拉 FSD 在华进展与市场动态:** 特斯拉在获得中国 FSD 批准方面可能面临延误。 中国当局可能会将批准特斯拉 FSD 许可证作为与特朗普进行贸易谈判的筹码。 这给特斯拉的推出时间表带来了不确定性和挑战。 此外,特斯拉在中国 FSD 的潜在定价为 5,000-6,000 美元可能一开始就失败。 这是因为比亚迪在其所有车型中免费提供其“上帝之眼”自动驾驶系统。 特斯拉 FSD 延迟的时间越长,在中国以溢价出售它就越困难。 特斯拉还受到限制,无法将视频数据发送到中国境外,而美国政府也限制特斯拉在中国进行培训。
**Wat EV 收购特斯拉 Semi 与充电基础设施:** Wat EV 是一家重型货运电气化提供商,宣布与特斯拉达成协议,将于 2026 年交付 40 辆特斯拉 Semi,并在 2025 年接收两辆。 Wat EV 在加利福尼亚州贝克斯菲尔德推出了第一个太阳能卡车充电站。 他们的首席执行官表示,所有充电站都将为 MCS 充电进行未来的升级。 Wat EV 通过“卡车即服务”模式提供电动卡车,使车队无需前期投资即可使用。 该公司计划到 2030 年在加利福尼亚州部署 12,000 辆电动卡车,到 2035 年运营 100 个充电站,并扩展到加利福尼亚州以外的地区。
**特斯拉超级充电桩虚拟排队和其他更新:** 特斯拉充电部门正在第二季度在部分超级充电站试点虚拟排队,以改善客户的等待时间体验。 特斯拉正在以每年 20% 的速度扩展网络。 尚不清楚队列是否包括非特斯拉电动汽车。 Chris Zang 表示,Model 3 可能会重新获得转向信号拨杆,类似于新款 Model Y。 特斯拉发布了 Cybertruck 碰撞测试录像,突出了该车辆的安全特性。 据报道,特斯拉计划在 4 月份之前在印度启动零售业务。 这些计划还包括推出一款价格低于 25,000 美元的电动汽车。 然而,特朗普表示这对美国不公平。 除非特斯拉免除当前的进口关税,否则特斯拉在印度的销量将低于预期。 特斯拉商店还为 Model Y 增加了新商品,例如冷却器和巨型充电器。 Met God 分享了在弗里蒙特拍摄的新视频,展示了特斯拉车辆从生产线下自动驾驶到出厂停车场。 Stellantis 宣布了 3 级自动驾驶系统。
Here's a summary of Dylan Lumis' "Electrified" video, covering key points and market implications:
**Tariff Turmoil & Graphite Concerns:** The episode begins with a recap of potential auto import tariffs proposed by Trump, potentially giving Tesla a competitive edge since they manufacture solely in the US. However, the bigger story is the petition by US and Canadian graphite producers seeking tariffs up to 920% on graphite imports from China. They allege Chinese graphite is being "dumped" at unfairly low prices due to government subsidies, threatening the nascent US graphite industry. The ITC is proceeding with an investigation. This could significantly impact Tesla, which relies heavily on Chinese graphite for battery anodes, accounting for 10-15% of battery costs. Roth Capital Partners estimates a 920% tariff could increase anode costs by 125%, potentially raising Tesla's battery pack costs by thousands of dollars. While Tesla has a graphite deal with Syrah Resources, it likely won't scale fast enough. Even LFP batteries, composing over 30% of global EV graphite demand, use graphite. Dylan notes Tesla previously secured exemptions from tariffs on Chinese graphite. This issue underscores the critical importance of localized supply chains.
**Figure AI & Robot Advancement:** Dylan discusses Figure AI's new VLA (Vision Language Action) model named Helix. It combines perception, language understanding, and learned control. They demonstrated Helix working simultaneously on two robots, picking up unfamiliar objects based on natural language prompts, running entirely on embedded GPUs. Dylan urges caution, as Figure claims Helix allows for new behaviors to scale without programming or demonstrations. He notes Figure collected data using teleoperated behaviors for around 500 hours. If true, this would be a major step towards generalized robots. Figure claims their robots can now perform tasks on the fly without task-specific demonstrations or extensive manual programming. Figure's CEO Brett said 2025 will be pivotal for production and tackling home robotics. Dylan admits skepticism toward Figure, but sees this detailed report as promising, potentially solidifying Figure AI's credibility.
**Tesla FSD in China & Market Dynamics:** Tesla is facing potential delays in obtaining Chinese approval for FSD. Chinese authorities may use the approval of Tesla's FSD license as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations with Trump. This creates uncertainty and challenges Tesla's rollout timeline. Additionally, Tesla's potential pricing of $5,000-$6,000 for FSD in China may be dead on arrival. This is due to BYD offering its "God's Eye" autonomous system for free across its lineup. The longer Tesla's FSD is delayed, the more challenging it becomes to sell it at a premium price in China. Tesla is also restricted in China with sending video data outside of China and the US government is restricting Tesla with training in China.
**Wat EV's Tesla Semi Acquisition & Charging Infrastructure:** Wat EV, a heavy-duty freight electrification provider, announced an agreement with Tesla to take delivery of 40 Tesla Semis in 2026, receiving two in 2025. Wat EV launched the first solar-powered truck charging depot in Bakersfield, CA. Their CEO said all charging depots are being future-proofed for MCS charging. Wat EV provides electric trucks via a "truck as a service" model, offering fleets access without upfront investment. The company aims to deploy 12,000 electric trucks in California by 2030 and operate 100 charging stations by 2035, expanding beyond California.
**Tesla Supercharger Virtual Queuing & Other Updates:** Tesla Charging is piloting virtual queuing at select Supercharger sites in Q2 to improve customer experience for wait times. Tesla is expanding the network 20% year-over-year. It's unclear if the queue will include non-Tesla EVs. Chris Zang indicates the Model 3 may regain the turn signal stock, similar to the new Model Y. Tesla released Cybertruck crash testing footage, highlighting the vehicle's safety features. Tesla is reportedly planning to launch retail operations in India by April. These plans also include introducing an EV under $25,000. However, Trump has stated that is unfair to the US. Unless Tesla exempts itself for the current import tariffs, the India sales volumes for Tesla will be smaller than expected. Tesla also has new items in the shop for the Model Y like the cooler and the megapack charger. Met God shared new video footage at Fremont showing Tesla vehicles driving autonomously to the outbound lot from the factory line. Stellantis announced level 3 automated driving system.