Lecture 23: Building Blocks of Distributive Politics

以下是将原文翻译成中文： 本次讲座是名为“怎么办？”课程的第五部分，探讨塑造世界可能性的当代政治的关键特征。它为思考如何在看似令人沮丧的现实下实现建设性变革奠定了基础。 讲座首先强调了本地与全球不平等的重要性。人们倾向于与处境相似的人进行比较，这使得本地差距比抽象的全球不平等数字更具影响力。通过卷尾猴实验和瑞克·桑特利反对抵押贷款救济的咆哮等例子对此进行了说明。讲师对比了特朗普和桑德斯的竞选活动，指出特朗普专注于被精英“欺骗”的感觉，而不是更广泛的不平等，这与“损失厌恶”的理念产生了共鸣，即人们避免损失比实现收益更有动力。这种不安全感和对向下流动的恐惧，尤其是在中产阶级中，是政治行为的重要驱动因素。 讲座随后转向结构性因素：有组织劳工的衰落以及商业利益的相应崛起。共产主义作为一种可行替代方案的崩溃进一步加强了资本，尤其是在全球化和技术进步的时代。与此同时，政党的力量被削弱和分裂，使得制定纲领性平台更加困难，并创造了一个适合民粹主义领导人利用不安全感，提出简化解决方案的环境。 尽管评估结果令人沮丧，但讲师提倡“现实的乌托邦主义”，呼应康德的格言：“没有政治的政策是空洞的，但没有政策的政治是盲目的。”他批判了政策专家忽视政治可行性的倾向，以及政治科学家忽视规范性考虑的倾向。他以皮凯蒂呼吁对资本征收全球税为例，说明了没有政治的政策，并以“占领华尔街”运动为例，说明了没有政策的政治。“占领华尔街”运动表达了对2008年金融危机中救助金融机构的道德义愤，但没有提出任何具体政策来解决任何问题。 讲师概述了“有效分配政治的六个基石”，旨在弥合理想政策与政治可行性之间的差距： 1. **联盟：** 对支持一项政策所需的联盟进行战略性思考，无论是在立法机构内外，都是至关重要的。讲师将中位数选民定理（该定理并非系统性发生）与多数规则分割美元博弈进行对比，说明了纯粹基于利益的联盟的内在不稳定性。废除遗产税运动的成功就是一个例子，它在立法机构内外建立了一个非常成功的联盟，并且归功于阻止潜在的阻挠联盟。 2. **阻挠联盟：** 识别并预测潜在的阻挠联盟，并采取战略性行动来阻止他们的努力。 3. **商业利益：** 承认商业利益的巨大力量，并考虑他们作为盟友或对手的角色。 4. **道德叙事：** 建立引人入胜的道德叙事，以维系联盟，激励行动，并防止在对手提供更好的交易时出现背叛。讨论涵盖了可以使用不同的道德叙事，为了相同目标达到有效的影响。 5. **近期目标：** 追求可实现的、渐进的目标，作为通往更广泛愿景的驿站。废除奴隶贸易就是一个近期目标获得成功的故事。医疗保险被讨论为一个长期意外后果的例子。 6. **巩固收益：** 实施机制以巩固政策收益，并使其难以逆转。社会保障的资金结构的成功与重建收益巩固的失败形成了对比，因为它通过有效的资金流程保护了当前的成功。 讲座以一个警示性的提醒结束。讲师指出，这六个要素还不够。有效的分配政治的基石很重要，但它们不能取代好的政策，坏的政策也能满足所有这六个标准。2008年的住房危机就是一个例子。“美国梦”得到了两党的支持，具备道德叙事、近期目标和领导层的支持。

This lecture, the fifth part of a course titled "What is to be Done?", explores the key features of contemporary politics that shape what is possible in the world. It sets the stage for considering how to effect constructive change, despite seemingly depressing realities. The lecture begins by highlighting the importance of local versus global inequalities. People tend to compare themselves to similarly situated others, making local disparities more impactful than abstract global inequality figures. This is illustrated through examples like the Capuchin monkey experiment and Rick Santelli's rant against mortgage relief. The lecturer contrasts the Trump and Sanders campaigns, noting that Trump focused on the feeling of being "screwed" by elites rather than on broader inequality, resonating with the idea of "loss aversion," where people are more motivated by avoiding losses than achieving gains. This insecurity and fear of downward mobility, especially among the middle class, are significant drivers of political behavior. The lecture then turns to structural factors: the decline of organized labor and the corresponding rise in the power of business interests. The collapse of communism as a viable alternative has further strengthened capital, particularly in an era of globalization and technological advancement. Simultaneously, political parties have weakened and fragmented, making it harder to enact programmatic platforms and creating an environment ripe for populist leaders who exploit insecurity with simplistic solutions. Despite this bleak assessment, the lecturer advocates for a "realistic utopianism," echoing Kant's dictum that "policy without politics is empty, but politics without policy is blind." He critiques the tendency for policy experts to ignore political feasibility and for political scientists to neglect normative considerations. He uses Piketty's call for a global tax on capital as an example of policy without politics and the Occupy Wall Street movement as an example of politics without policy. Occupy Wall Street expressed moral outrage at the bailout of financial institutions in the 2008 financial crisis, but had no specific policies to fix any problems. The lecturer outlines six "building blocks of effective distributive politics" aimed at bridging the gap between desirable policies and political feasibility: 1. **Coalitions:** Thinking strategically about the coalitions needed to support a policy, both inside and outside the legislature, is paramount. The lecturer contrasts the median voter theorem, which doesn't occur systematically, with the majority rule divide a dollar game, illustrating the inherent instability of purely interest-based coalitions. The success of the campaign to repeal the estate tax is used as an example of building a very successful coalition inside and outside of the legislative bodies and is due to heading off potential blocking coalitions as well. 2. **Blocking Coalitions:** Identify and anticipate potential blocking coalitions and strategically preempt their efforts. 3. **Business Interests:** Acknowledge the significant power of business interests and consider their role as allies or opponents. 4. **Moral Narratives:** Craft compelling moral narratives to hold coalitions together, motivate action, and prevent defections when opponents offer better deals. The discussion covers that these can be different moral narratives with the same goal in mind for effective impact. 5. **Proximate Goals:** Pursue achievable, incremental goals that serve as way stations towards a broader vision. A success story with approximate goals include abolition of slave trade. Medicare is discussed as an example of unintended long term consequences. 6. **Entrench Gains:** Implement mechanisms to solidify policy gains and make them difficult to reverse. The success of Social Security's funding structure is contrasted with the failure to entrench the gains of Reconstruction, as it protects a current success through effective funding processes. The lecture concludes with a cautionary note. The lecturer points out that those six elements are not enough. That building blocks of effective distributive politics are important but they're not a substitute for good policy and that bad policy can meet all six of these criteria. The 2008 housing crisis is discussed as an example. The "American Dream" had support in both parties, moral narratives, proximate goals, and leadership support.