Tesla Battery Constraints? // Q4 Earnings Call Analysis

以下是将原文翻译成中文的内容： The Limiting Factor 的 Jordan Geesege 分析了埃隆·马斯克在特斯拉 2024 年第四季度财报电话会议上的发言，即尽管全球电池单元供应过剩，但电池生产目前仍受到限制。Geesege 澄清了马斯克的评论，重点指出瓶颈在于电池单元的供应，而不是将电池单元组装成电池包。他还区分了当前的限制和今年晚些时候预计的限制，认为限制可能在未来，而不是实时存在。 Geesege 将特斯拉的电池供应链分为圆柱形电池（用于车辆）和棱柱形电池（用于车辆和储能）。他认为 Cybertruck 是受电池单元限制最小的车型，因为内部生产的 4680 电池产量超过了 Cybertruck 的当前产量。然而，多余的电池单元的去向尚不清楚。他推测这些电池要么被囤积起来，要么特斯拉以低于峰值的速率运行生产线。 对于 Cybertruck 之外的美国车辆生产，生产速率更多地受到当前价格下的需求驱动，而不是受到电池单元供应的驱动，这就是特斯拉致力于发布更经济实惠的车辆的原因。在美国生产的 Model Y 和 Model 3 使用在国内采购的 2170 电池，以利用 7,500 美元的税收抵免。这几乎消耗了松下在内华达州的全部电池供应。虽然内华达州的电池供应和车辆生产需求几乎一致，但由于松下在日本的生产可能符合税收抵免的条件，因此可能存在回旋余地。在中国和欧洲生产的长续航特斯拉汽车使用来自 LG Chem 的 2170 电池，据推测其产能充足。Model S 和 X 使用圆柱形 18650 电池，供应充足。 总的来说，基于当前的电池单元供应量，Cybertruck、Model S 和 X 有扩张空间，而中国和欧洲的长续航 Model 3 和 Y 的生产前景良好，但美国可能面临来自内华达州超级工厂的产能限制。由于特斯拉计划到 2025 年初将产量提高 60%，因此电池单元供应需要增加。 Geesege 指出，特斯拉在奥斯汀超级工厂拥有充足的 4680 电池生产备用产能，尽管正极材料的生产目前以高成本进口。干电极工艺可能是释放数 10 吉瓦时潜在产能的关键。特斯拉的供应商松下和 LG Chem 也在美国、日本和韩国扩大 2170 和 4680 电池的生产。松下正在日本提高 4680 电池的产量，并在堪萨斯州提高 2170 电池的产量。LG Chem 在韩国拥有一条 4680 生产线，并在亚利桑那州建造一座 4680 工厂。考虑到即将推出的车型可能会使用更小的电池组，这些扩产带来的总产能应该足以满足特斯拉不断增长的需求。 转向棱柱形 LFP 电池（用于巨型储能电池组、家用储能电池和在中国和欧洲生产的标准续航车型），Geesege 发现特斯拉关于限制的说法令人困惑。马斯克表示，由于灵活性限制，储能应用和移动应用之间可能存在电池单元供应冲突。这与标准行业惯例不符，因为用于电网储能的电池与用于车辆的电池有很大不同。Geesege 认为，限制可能源于宁德时代 (CATL) 预先设定的 LFP 电池配额，这需要特斯拉决定电池类型的分配。他承认有广泛报道称中国 LFP 电池供应过剩，这与特斯拉的声明相矛盾。可能的解释包括：供应过剩主要集中在低质量电池上，锂离子电池市场可能出现转机，或者仅仅是由于特斯拉的产量扩张导致需求激增。 最后，他提到了特斯拉从宁德时代购买 LFP 生产设备以安装在内华达州超级工厂的传言，但由于预计量产需要很长时间，因此他将其排除在立即分析之外。他认为，随着上海巨型储能电池组的产量增加以及更经济实惠的车辆的推出，可能会出现限制。对于美国制造的长续航 Model 3 和 Y 车型，内华达州超级工厂目前唯一潜在的限制是圆柱形电池。他认为这是一个挑战，但不是一个主要的问题。他最后强调，考虑到 Cyber​​cab 和 Optimus 等项目的利润潜力，有必要进一步调查特斯拉的电池供应链。他提出了三个问题供未来的股东大会了解电池链的现状。

Jordan Geesege of The Limiting Factor analyzes Elon Musk's statement during Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings call that battery production is currently a constraint, despite a global glut of battery cell supply. Geesege clarifies Musk's comments, focusing on the bottleneck being cell supply, not the assembly of cells into packs. He also differentiates between current constraints versus projected constraints later in the year, proposing that constraints may be ahead and not in real-time. Geesege segments Tesla's battery supply chain into cylindrical cells (used for vehicles) and prismatic cells (used for vehicles and energy storage). He believes the Cybertruck is the least cell-constrained vehicle, as in-house 4680 production exceeds current Cybertruck production rates. However, the fate of the extra cell supply is unknown. He suggests it's either stockpiled or Tesla is running the production lines below peak rates. For US vehicle production beyond the Cybertruck, production rates are driven more by demand at current prices than by cell supply, which is why Tesla is working to release more affordable vehicles. Model Y and Model 3 production in the US use 2170 cells sourced domestically to leverage the $7,500 tax credit. This consumes almost all of Panasonic's Nevada cell supply. While Nevada cell supply and vehicle production demand are nearly aligned, there may be wiggle room due to Panasonic's Japanese production potentially qualifying for tax credits. Long-range Tesla vehicles in China and Europe use 2170 cells from LG Chem, which is assumed to have sufficient capacity. Model S and X use cylindrical 18650 cells with ample supply. Overall, Cybertruck, Model S, and X have room for expansion based on the amount of current cell supply, while long-range Model 3 and Y production in China and Europe look good, but the US may face constraints from Giga Nevada maxing out its cell production capacity. As Tesla plans a 60% production increase by early 2025, the cell supply will need to ramp up. Geesege points out that Tesla has ample spare capacity for 4680 cell production at Giga Austin, although the cathode production is currently imported at a high cost. The dry electrode process may be key to unlocking this potential production of tens of gigawatt-hours. Tesla's suppliers, Panasonic and LG Chem, are also expanding 2170 and 4680 cell production in the United States, Japan, and South Korea. Panasonic is ramping 4680 production in Japan and 2170 production in Kansas. LG Chem has a 4680 line in Korea and is building a 4680 plant in Arizona. The combined capacity from these expansions should be sufficient to meet Tesla's growing demand, especially considering the likely use of smaller battery packs in upcoming vehicles. Turning to prismatic LFP battery cells (used in megapacks, powerwalls, and standard-range vehicles in China and Europe), Geesege finds Tesla's assertion of constraints confusing. Musk stated the potential conflict between stationary and mobile applications for cell supply due to limitations on flexibility. This doesn't align with standard industry practices, where cells for grid storage differ significantly from those for vehicles. Geesege suggests the constraint might stem from a predetermined allotment of LFP cells from CATL, requiring Tesla to decide on cell type allocation. He acknowledges the widespread reports of an LFP cell glut in China, which contradicts Tesla's stated constraint. Possible explanations include the glut being primarily in lower-quality cells, a potential turnaround in the lithium-ion battery market, or a simple surge in demand due to Tesla's production expansion. Finally, he mentions the rumor of Tesla purchasing LFP production equipment from CATL for installation at Giga Nevada, but excludes it from the immediate analysis due to the expected long timeline for volume production. He believes that constraints might appear as megapack production ramps in Shanghai and more affordable vehicles are launched. The cylinder cell is the only current potential constraint from Giga Nevada for US made long-range Models 3 and Y. He sees this as a challenge, but not a major cause for concern. He ends by emphasizing the importance of further inquiry into Tesla's battery supply chain, given the profit potential of projects such as Cybercab and Optimus. He provides three questions for future shareholders meetings to understand the current standing of the battery chain.