Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview

这段文字记录了著名宏观投资者瑞·达利欧与大卫·萨克斯之间关于迫在眉睫的美国债务危机的关键讨论。达利欧强调了债务周期机械的、几乎是循环往复的本质，并警告说由于不可持续的债务水平，美国正接近危机点。 达利欧强调，美国已经到了偿还债务消耗了政府收入的很大一部分的阶段。他强调了借钱偿还现有债务的危险，这会造成一种“死亡螺旋”，投资者失去信心，利率上升，情况迅速恶化。他认为，当前的市场行为，即在美联储降息的情况下长期利率却在上升，以及黄金和比特币价值的上升，都预示着对美国债务信心的侵蚀。 达利欧解释说，美国目前正处于债务周期的五个阶段。第一个阶段是债务和投资增长超过了收入的偿还能力。债务泡沫可能会破裂，导致信贷、债务和市场萎缩。周期进入去杠杆化阶段，中央银行发行更多货币来换取债务。在最后阶段，债务减少，周期重新开始。 达利欧提倡“3%解决方案”，敦促国会和总统承诺尽快将赤字削减到GDP的3%。这需要统一的协议和对实现这一目标的承诺。他强调现在采取行动的重要性，即在经济相对强劲的时期，因为拖延行动将需要在未来做出更加严厉的削减。 他强调了紧缩措施可能对利率产生的违反直觉的好处。如果政府通过削减开支来表现出财政责任，市场自然会通过降低利率来做出反应，从而减轻债务负担。达利欧承认与此类措施相关的政治挑战，但坚称联邦政府财政状况的转变比市场的反应更重要。 随后，讨论转向全球动态。达利欧指出，类似的债务问题困扰着包括中国、日本和英国在内的其他国家。他认为，如果一个国家的债务价值正在下降，那么应该将资金存储在黄金或比特币等资产中。然而，美国债务的日益集中，使得人们开始寻求其他形式的财富存储。 达利欧认为技术和人工智能是关键的生产力驱动因素，但告诫不要高估它们的近期影响。他担心自动化造成的失业可能先于经济利益，从而可能引发社会动荡和对增加政府支持的需求。达利欧指出内战的风险是非常现实的可能性。 在讨论对领导层的影响时，达利欧认为共和党政府，可能在特朗普领导下，可能更倾向于实施必要的财政措施。然而，他承认可能出现社会和国际冲突，强调强大的法律体系对于应对这些挑战的重要性。 此外，达利欧深入研究了国际冲突的历史背景，强调了外部冲突可能源于金融困难。他将美国对战争的态度与中国孙子兵法所启发的欺骗和操纵战略进行对比，强调需要清楚地了解这些不同的国际关系方式。 总之，达利欧的分析描绘了一幅关于美国经济轨迹的令人担忧的画面。他的解决方案，虽然可能在政治上具有挑战性，但为避免更深层次的危机和恢复长期经济稳定提供了一个框架。关键的结论包括采取行动的紧迫性、财政纪律的重要性以及对全球经济和地缘政治动态的全面理解的必要性。

This transcript captures a crucial discussion between Ray Dalio, a renowned macro investor, and David Sacks regarding the looming US debt crisis. Dalio emphasizes the mechanical, almost circulatory, nature of debt cycles, warning that the US is nearing a point of crisis due to unsustainable debt levels. Dalio stresses that the US has reached a stage where debt service consumes a significant portion of government revenue. He highlights the danger of borrowing to service existing debt, creating a "death spiral" where investors lose confidence, interest rates rise, and the situation deteriorates rapidly. He suggests that the current market behavior, with long-term interest rates rising despite Federal Reserve rate cuts, coupled with the increasing value of gold and Bitcoin, signals an erosion of confidence in US debt. Dalio explains that there are five stages of debt cycles that the United States is currently in. The first one being that debt and investment growth are greater than can be serviced from the incomes being produced. The debt bubble can pop where credit, debt, and the markets contract. The cycle moves toward the deleveraging stages where central banks create more currency in exchange for debt. In the final stage, the debt recedes and the cycle restarts. Dalio advocates a "3% solution," urging Congress and the President to commit to reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP as soon as possible. This requires a unified agreement and a commitment to delivering on that target. He underscores the importance of acting now, during a period of relative economic strength, as delaying action will necessitate even more drastic cuts in the future. He highlights the counterintuitive benefit that austerity measures can have on interest rates. If the government demonstrates fiscal responsibility by cutting spending, the market would naturally react by lowering rates, easing the debt burden. Dalio acknowledges the political challenges associated with such measures but asserts that a shift in the federal government's fiscal position is more important than the market's reaction. The discussion then pivots to global dynamics. Dalio notes that similar debt problems plague other nations, including China, Japan, and the UK. He argues that if the value of a country's debt is declining, money should be stored in assets such as gold or Bitcoin. However, the increasing concentration of US debt makes people begin to seek other forms of storing wealth. Dalio identifies technology and AI as crucial productivity drivers, but cautions against overestimating their immediate impact. He expresses concern that job losses due to automation could precede the economic benefits, potentially fueling social unrest and demands for increased government support. Dalio points to the risk of civil war as a very real possibility. Discussing the implications for leadership, Dalio believes a Republican administration, potentially under Trump, might be more inclined to implement necessary fiscal measures. However, he acknowledges the potential for social and international conflicts, emphasizing the importance of a strong legal system to navigate these challenges. Furthermore, Dalio delves into the historical context of international conflict, highlighting the potential for external conflicts to arise from financial difficulties. He contrasts the US approach to war with China's Sun Tzu-inspired strategy of deception and manipulation, emphasizing the need for a clear understanding of these different approaches to international relations. In conclusion, Dalio's analysis paints a concerning picture of the US economic trajectory. His solutions, while potentially politically challenging, offer a framework for averting a deeper crisis and restoring long-term economic stability. The key takeaways include the urgency of action, the importance of fiscal discipline, and the need for a comprehensive understanding of global economic and geopolitical dynamics.