5 Lessons From Peter Lynch | Signal or Noise Ep 43 | Charlie Bilello | Peter Mallouk

the the or no is this episode forty three charlie below here with me as always Peter will two topics today Peter on five lessons from Peter Lynch and to we're gonna end with signal or noise talking about tariff trade wars and all that good stuff so I want to dig right in five lessons from Peter Lynch needs no introduction we'll talk about his career within these five lessons let's go to number one here know what you own and here's the quote that I often use know what you own and know why you own it this is so important for every investor education is an edge and I know a creative planning this is huge Peter every client that you talk to we're talking about why you own stocks why you own bonds why you have some cash in your portfolio when I think this chart really illustrates it looking at the last thirty years you own stocks for long-term growth see s&p five hundred up fourteen hundred plus percent you own bonds to meet your short-term needs your return expectations should be lower up around two hundred twenty eight percent and you want to be an investor because of this constant threat of inflation we know it's going to be there we just don't know the exact number prices have more than doubled in the last thirty years so when you talk into investors often the last why do I have this in my portfolio what's the purpose there how do you approach that with investors how do you explain and make them know what they own and why they own it yeah

翻译： 这里是第43集的节目，Charlie在这里和我在一起，一如既往地由Peter共同主持。今天我们有两个主题：第一是来自投资大师Peter Lynch的五个投资教训，第二是讨论关税、贸易战等话题，辨别“信号或噪音”。现在让我们直接进入正题，第一个是Peter Lynch的五个教训，不需要多做介绍，我们将通过这五个教训聊聊他的职业生涯。先来看看第一个，了解你所拥有的。这里有一句我常用的话："了解你所拥有的，以及你为什么拥有它"。这对于每一个投资者来说都非常重要，教育是一种优势。我知道在Creative Planning公司，这点尤其重要，Peter你和每位客户交流时，都会谈到为何持有股票、债券以及在投资组合中持有一定现金的理由。我认为这张图表很好地说明了这一点，回顾过去30年，长期持有股票是为了增长，比如标普500指数增长了超过1400%。持有债券则是为了满足短期需求，预期回报会低一些，大约增长了228%。成为投资者的原因还在于不断存在的通货膨胀威胁，我们知道它会发生，只是不知道具体数值，价格在过去30多年里翻了一倍多。所以，当你和投资者交流时，经常谈到的最后一个问题是：我为什么要在投资组合中持有这个？它的目的是什么？你通常是如何处理这个问题的？如何向投资者解释并让他们了解自己持有什么以及为何持有？

i think that's that's the key is saying well you know stocks are great now or bonds are great now or for this private equity fund looks interesting is very different than saying here's how much money i may need in the next five years here's a much money i may need ten years from now here's this money i don't need for another fifteen or here's how i feel about volatility or how nervous i get when the market is down you really want everything to be goal oriented like what am i trying to do and what do i have to do to make that happen and you go backwards in the investment the why begins with you not the markets not the security and then you need to know like what is what is the content of what i'm going to put my portfolio together with is this high do i expect high performance here why do i expect high performance what is it about these stocks these bonds these private funds that's going to help propel me where i want to go but you've got to begin with you the why begins with you and you go backwards from there

我认为关键在于，不是简单地说“现在股票很好”或“现在债券很好”，或者“这个私募股权基金看起来很有趣”，而是要明确你的财务目标。比如，你需要考虑未来五年需要多少钱，十年后可能需要多少钱，或者哪一部分钱十五年内都不需要。你还需要考虑自己对市场波动的感受，比如市场下跌时你会有多焦虑。所有的投资都应该是目标导向的，你要明确自己想实现什么目标，并制定实现这些目标的计划，而不是从市场或某种证券出发。在组建投资组合时，你需要知道其中包含了什么，是什么让你认为这些会有高回报，以及这些股票、债券或私募基金能如何帮助你实现财务目标。最重要的是，一切都要从你自身开始，从你的需求和目标出发，然后再考虑投资策略。

Paragraph 1: so if stocks only went up there would be no need to own anything else right that's all often the question why do i even need bonds and it's you always talk about meeting short term needs and that's a hundred percent true but there's also these periods where stocks actually go down you have a negative return for the market you have a bear market and a lot of that time if you look historically bonds have kind of cushion the blow now twenty twenty two didn't do a great job of it because bond yields were at all time lows but if you look at these other years since nineteen seventy six one the s and p five hundred has been down bonds have been up in the value of that in a portfolio peters you often talk about is because then you have this opportunity to opportunistically rebalance and using that decline to be proactive and take money out of the bond portion of portfolio and add it to stocks when they're cheaper yet is only three reasons to own bonds

如果股票只会上涨，那我们就不需要持有其他资产了，对吗？人们常常会问，为什么我还需要债券？我们总是谈论满足短期需求，这确实是完全正确的。但也有一些时期，股票确实会下跌，市场会出现负回报，进入熊市。很多时候，如果回顾历史，债券似乎能够缓冲这种影响。虽然2022年的表现不太理想，因为债券收益率处于历史低位，但如果查看自1976年以来的其他年份，当标准普尔500指数下跌时，债券的价值往往会上涨。彼得常常谈到，在这样的情况下，你就有机会通过策略性再平衡，在股票便宜时，从投资组合中的债券部分提取资金并增加到股票中。拥有债券的原因只有三个。

Paragraph 2: one is you believe bonds will be better than other investments going forward there are some people that believe that of the markets really high private investments are really high real estate's really high all these things will have negative returns for the next ten years or very lower turns they're from a don't box this is a very small group of people i'm definitely not in them history says these people tend to lose almost all of the time but that would be reason number one reason number two is you might need money the next five years and no matter how great the world is no matter how fantastic you think everything may turn out no matter how confident you are and what what you're buying if there's a covid or nine eleven or no eight or nine probably going down right if you're an owner of stocks real estate private we probably going to see declines so we're making withdrawals during those declines you can have permanent problems you need bonds for that reason

第二段的翻译： 第一种情况是你相信债券在未来会比其他投资更好，有些人认为市场处于非常高的位置，私人投资也很高，房地产也很高，这些领域在接下来的十年里可能会有负收益或非常低的收益。这个观点属于一个非常小的群体，我肯定不在其中，历史表明这些人几乎总是会失望。但这可以算作第一个理由。第二个理由是你可能在未来五年内需要用到钱，无论世界多么美好，无论你多么相信一切都会有好的结果，无论你对所购买的东西有多大信心，如果发生了像新冠疫情、9/11或2008年经济危机这样的事件，市场可能会下跌。如果你持有股票、房地产或私人投资品，可能会看到价格下降。如果你在这些下跌期间取钱，可能会遇到永久性的问题。出于这个原因，你需要债券。

Paragraph 1: and the third reason is you just don't want the volatility you know and there's nothing wrong with that by the way there's people that go look i'm on track to be where i want to get or i'm already there i don't need this drama i don't need my portfolio go down forty five fifty five percent every five years when there's a bear market you know i'm gonna put thirty forty fifty percent more in bonds and i'm just not going to deal with the drama and i don't care if the probability that i'm gonna is higher than i'm gonna earn a little two or three percent less over a decade those are the three reasons make sure you know you're why and then back into the investments right so it comes down at the end of the day to allocation and this is just simply looking at the split between stocks and bonds and there's a trade-off as you can see in this chart here the higher the risk on a long-term basis the higher the reward stocks don't give you that ten percent long-term return without higher risk higher risk of drawdown higher volatility along the way and for every investor there's a right place in the spectrum uh... but it might not be you know i know a lot of uh... advisers just use use simply age peter and other factors like that

翻译成中文并简化： 第三个原因是你不想要这种波动，其实这也没什么不对。有些人会觉得他们已经走在自己想要到达的轨道上，或者已经到达目标了，不需要这种波动。他们不希望每五年遇到熊市时，投资组合的价值下降45%或55%。所以他们打算把多一点比例的资金放在债券上，比如说30%、40%或50%，以避免这种波动，即使这意味着未来十年赚的钱可能少2%或3%。这就是三个原因，要确保你知道为什么，然后再去做投资。最终来说，关键在于分配，就是在股票和债券之间的分配。如这张图所示，长期来看，风险越高，回报也越高。股票不会在没有高风险的情况下，给你10%的长期回报，这意味着更高的下跌风险和波动性。每个投资者都有适合自己的风险承受范围，但这可能并不像很多顾问简单依据年龄、经历等因素做出的判断那么直接。

Paragraph 1: and i know you don't believe in this for everyone it's unique someone might be seventy five and have a very high risk tolerance have no interest in owning a lot of bonds and someone might be twenty five and have a different view and said i want uh... sleeping at night is a premium to me i want to hold more treasury bills and bonds a hundred percent and i think that's there's nothing wrong with getting there by sleeping at night doing it based on your age as you mentioned or anything related to well i'm at this point in my life i therefore should have bought this much bonds i don't think that's the right way to do it if two people are sixty two people are thirty have very different needs very different savings rates very different future withdrawal rates they should have different allocations absolutely the key of all this is no which own and why own it and the reason you want to do that is because things don't always go up and when they go down well if you don't know what you own and why own it what you're likely to abandon that and all many of these other lessons deal with that so we'll touch on that but let's go to the lesson number two here don't try to time the market is a quote i've used many times in the past far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections we're trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves now peter we haven't had a correction here since last august seems like a distant memory at this point that's a pretty long time usually you get you know three to four corrections a year we know what other ones coming you could kind of fill in the blank let's say if one word happened now we'll talk about tariffs later but you could probably say that would be one reason assigned to it but investors should be fully expecting that correction to come and there's many cases you can make stocks are highly valued and we have this trade where we have all this uncertainty on and on and on why shouldn't an investor think about now trying to time the market and buy back in at a lower price i mean that the the issue is that this thinking begins with this idea that the market goes up and down and therefore i'll wait till it's down and then i'll add and then i'll go up that's not really what the market does the market over a long period time goes up and it has intermittent breaks where it goes down so it's very common for say the the down he used one index to go from thirty five thousand seven thirty seven thousand then go backwards to thirty six but never revisit thirty five right here on the sideline the market can get away from you that's what's basically happened to everybody since covid everybody waiting for this pullback that they can get back in have permanently missed an opportunity means real wealth destruction by being on the sidelines during any of this

段落 1： 我知道你不相信这种观点，因为每个人的情况都是独特的。有人可能已经七十五岁了，具有很高的风险承受能力，对持有大量债券没有兴趣；而有人可能二十五岁，持有不同的看法，认为安稳的睡眠对他们来说至关重要，所以他们想持有更多的国库券和债券。我觉得根据年龄或生活阶段来决定应该买多少债券并不妥当。如果两个六十岁的人和两个三十岁的人有非常不同的需求、储蓄率和未来的提款率，他们当然应该有不同的投资配置。关键在于知道你拥有的是什么，以及为什么持有它，因为市场不是永远上涨的。当市场下跌时，如果你不清楚自己持有的是什么和为什么持有它，就容易放弃投资。许多其他经验教训都与此有关，我们会讨论到这一点，但先来看第二个经验教训：不要试图预测市场时机。我过去常常引用一句话：投资者在为市场调整做准备和尝试预测调整时损失的钱，比实际调整中损失的钱还要多。最近，我们从去年八月以来就没有遭遇调整，这段时间对于市场来说已经比较长了。通常每年市场会经历三至四次调整。尽管新一轮调整正在酝酿，许多人认为股票高度估值以及贸易的不确定性依然存在，投资者为什么不趁机买入并等市场回调后再买入呢？这里的问题在于，这种思维方式起始于市场会涨会跌的想法，因此我会等到市场下跌后再加仓，但实际上市场长期来看是上涨的，期间会有短暂的下跌。非常常见的情况是，某个指数可能从三万五千点涨到三万七千点，然后跌回三万六千点，但不会回到三万五千点。如果你一直在场外等待市场回调，你可能会错过重要的投资机会。自疫情以来，每个人都在等待市场回调以便重新进入，但这实际上可能导致真正的财富损失。

and so stop trying to avoid the next correction. that one happens about every thirteen fourteen months average corrections about fourteen percent. the next correction happens i bet it'll happen this year just statistically gonna be a drop of six thousand points and everyone's going to lose their minds. but it's something that happens all the time. just keep buying keep buying keep buying through the whole thing. that's your point here. we don't know which of these numbers won't be re-visited ever again so if you're waiting for that particular number and you got out because of any of these reasons whether it was the greeks default i mean a lot of these things you just quickly forget about uh... you know fed tapering back in twenty fourteen seems crazy that anyone would have gotten out of the market but back then it was real and it was visceral and people were saying a lot of negative negative things to get people out of the market. but it uh...

所以，不要试图避免下一次市场调整。平均来说，每十三到十四个月就会发生一次调整，调整幅度大约是14%。我敢打赌下一次调整可能会在今年发生，统计上来看可能会下跌六千点，大家都会疯狂，但这种事情一直在发生。你的重点是，要不断买入，不断买入，不断买入，贯穿整个过程。我们不知道其中哪些数字永远不会再被触及，所以如果你因为某些原因退出，比如希腊违约，很多这样的事情你很快就会忘记。你知道，2014年美联储缩减购债似乎很疯狂，似乎没人会因此退出市场，但在当时，这件事情很真实，也让人感到紧张，很多人说了很多负面的事情想要让人退出市场。但是……

the question often arises though peter okay maybe i can't do this myself but she's a professional who's been doing this all day every day and really promising that as their strategy uh... to get in and out of the market and shift allocations you know based on this market time. shouldn't they be able to do it better for me and unfortunately the answer overwhelmingly is no morning star just came out with another study of the tactical allocation category here what they found you look at one year three years five years ten years fifteen years twenty years every single time period peter massive massive underperformance if you look at the last fifteen years sixty forty return nine point three percent per year pretty good period for sixty forty. the tactical allocation this is an average five point four percent per year and many of them perform far worse than that and i think of the funds that were around fifteen years ago more than three quarters of them are no longer around today so why is it the case that even professionals have such a hard time timing the markets this market timing doesn't work and it's not market timing doesn't work for retail investors it doesn't work for anybody.

这个问题经常出现，彼得可能会想：“好吧，或许我自己无法做到这一点，但她是一位每天都在从事这项工作的专业人士，并且她非常有信心地把这作为他们的策略......根据市场时机进出市场并调整配置。那他们是不是应该能为我做得更好呢？” 不幸的是，答案大多是：不行。晨星公司最近对策略性资产配置类别进行了另一项研究。他们发现，在每一个时间段——一年、三年、五年、十年、十五年、二十年，彼得，它们都有着严重的表现不佳。举个例子，如果我们看过去十五年，60/40的投资组合每年有9.3%的回报率，对于60/40来说，这是一个相当不错的时期。而策略性资产配置的平均年度回报率仅为5.4%，而且许多基金的表现要比这更糟糕。而如果想想那些十五年前存在的基金，有超过四分之三如今已经不存在了。那么为什么即便是专业人士在市场时机选择上也如此困难呢？市场时机策略是无效的，这不仅对普通投资者无效，对任何人都无效。

the market is too dynamic there like think about today a change in regulations uh... we got a tariff war with canada china europe you've got uh... change in immigration policy uh... we don't know what's going to happen with geopolitics in the krae and uh... israel gaza uh... with corporate taxes are on the table the time i'm abolishing income tax rate at all these things are in play right now and think about most corrections are things were not thinking about it's just something new that shows up like the covens the new classic example but it could be anything right it just so it's in this idea that i'm going to go on the sideline away for this issue resolve itself and come back was not one issue it's a hundred issues plus invisible issues and no one can see the in...

市场变化太快了，比如说，今天法规上有变化，我们和加拿大、中国、欧洲有贸易战，还有移民政策的变化。我们不知道地缘政治会如何，比如乌克兰、以色列和加沙的局势。另外，企业税也在讨论中，一些人甚至考虑废除所得税。现在有很多事情在变化，而大多数市场调整都是我们没有预想到的事情，只是某个新情况突然出现，就像新冠疫情这样的例子。但可能是任何事情。因此，想要暂时退出市场，等问题解决后再回来是不现实的，因为这不是一个问题，而是上百个问题，还有很多我们看不见的问题。

visible issues or get the dynamics right of everything else so you can't build a strategy uh... based on the past because every environment is different it's constantly evolving. so we shouldn't expect them to crunch all this data and say well this is what how the market reacted when xyz happened in the past will know today's different for all the reasons you mentioned and just to illustrate this crazy uh... point here in terms of doing nothing is often better than taking action morning started another study looking at these allocation funds over a ten year period and what they actually found peter was that if they just held their beginning allocation whatever they started out with in twenty thirteen and didn't do anything didn't do like literally nothing they all would have done better doing the series of trade every single fund and i think four point six percent per year they're saying uh... more of a return had a done absolutely and that's kind of shocking at least to me.

翻译：不能只关注明显的问题或所有其他事情的动态，因为每个环境都是不同的，始终在变化，所以无法基于过去建立一个策略。我们不应该期望通过分析所有数据来推断市场在过去发生某些情况时的反应，因为如你所提到的，今天的情况因为各种原因不同。为了说明这个有点疯狂的观点，有时候不采取行动比采取行动更好。晨星公司进行了一项研究，他们查看了这些配置基金在十年间的表现。研究显示，如果这些基金从2013年开始保持最初的配置而不做任何调整，包括完全不进行交易，那么每个基金的表现都会更好，平均每年多赚4.6%。这结果至少对我来说是相当震惊的。

yeah i'm not sure it's shocking to me i think the more tactical allocators tend to also sit on cash at times and so when you have money sitting in cash markets got upward bias you're really swimming against the tide and so i think that that's probably a big factor here combined with these are human strategies and humans have emotions they make the same mistakes and real stuff right and this wasn't a period period without any volatility or corrections right you had three bear markets you had one in twenty eighteen you had obviously the covid crash in twenty twenty and then twenty twenty two was a longer bear market so you there were opportunities

翻译：我不太确定这是否让我感到震惊。我认为比较有策略的投资者有时往往会持有现金。所以，当你的钱被放在现金中时，而市场整体却有上行倾向，这就像在逆流而上。我觉得这可能是一个很大的因素。此外，人为策略的投资也有其局限性，因为投资者是人，他们有情绪，会犯相同的错误。过去这段时间并非完全没有波动或回调，你看有三个熊市：2018年有一个，显然2020年的疫情导致了一个崩盘，然后2022年也是一个较长时间的熊市。所以，这期间也是有机会的。

let's say if you had this ability to time the market there were opportunities for them to be able to let's say get out before and then buy back in and add value it just they weren't able to do it and really historically no one's able been able to do that repeatedly over long run let's go to lesson number three here there will be drawdowns i got two quotes here the key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them and the second one here you get recessions you have stock market declines if you don't understand that's going to happen then you're not ready you won't do well in the markets i want to start out here talking about the group of stocks i call the enormous eight and i just had Netflix to the max seven to include it here what i'm showing here peter are the eye popping returns on the right side google is the worst performer of the group up 660 percent over the last ten years and he got

假设你有能力精准把握市场时机，那么有机会让你在市场下跌前分批退出，然后再重新买入来增加价值。然而，他们并没有成功做到这一点。事实上，从历史来看，没有人能够在长时间内反复做到这一点。接下来，我们来看第三个教训：市场会有回调。我这里有两句话：“在股票市场赚钱的关键是不因为恐惧而退出它们。”以及“你会遇到经济衰退和股市下跌，如果你不理解这一点，那么你还没有准备好，也不能在市场中表现良好。” 接下来，我想谈谈一组我称为“巨大八”的股票，我刚刚把奈飞加入到“辉煌七”中以包含它。我要展示的是在右边的令人瞠目结舌的回报。谷歌是这组股票中表现最差的，但在过去十年里其表现仍然上涨了660%。

uh tesla and vidi you got these massive massive returns across the board but that didn't come without risk you have enormous risk along the way and the left side tells the story huge huge drawdowns across the board shouldn't every investor kind of understand this that there's no upside without that downside and you have to be able to stick with these huge declines in order to make those big rewards yeah and a great investor loves the downside because the downside is the the thing that drives people out of equities and and uh makes makes bonds attractive we need to have a bond market for the stock market to do so well and if there was no risk with stocks the returns would be much lower and so it's the volatility that's really the number one thing that's paying the investor is the willingness to take on this volatility absolutely and it's not easy right to to sit through it which is why most people would be more likely much more likely to stick with a diversified portfolio

特斯拉和Vidi都取得了巨大的回报，但并不是没有风险的。在这个过程中，你面临巨大的风险，左边的数据显示出了巨大的回撤。每个投资者都应该理解这一点：没有收益就不会有风险，必须能够忍受这些大幅下跌才能获得可观的回报。一个优秀的投资者往往青睐下跌，因为下跌会让人们退出股票市场，使得债券更具吸引力。我们需要债券市场来推动股票市场的发展。如果股票没有风险，回报会低得多。因此，真正为投资者带来收益的是他们愿意承担这种波动性。而要顶住这种波动并不容易，这也是为什么大多数人更可能坚持选择一个多元化的投资组合。

because losing 70 80 percent of your money in a stock and being concentrated on there how many people are going to stick with that we know from history amazon and many other examples where they've had 90 plus declines and think about if you have all of your money that you've saved in that stock it goes down 90 percent almost no one's just going to sit there and take it so if we're looking at bear markets here Peter this is a table going back to the Great Depression looking at bear markets here and he's saying you have to kind of accept it in terms of if you're an investor for 30 years right and there's a bear market every four years on average you should expect many many of these big declines and if you're not ready to accept that going in well then how in the world are you going to stick with it when it actually comes? 100 percent go in eyes wide open corrections every year on average bear markets every five to six years on average they don't space themselves out nicely good investors can hold through

因为如果你在股票上损失了70%到80%的资金，而且还过于集中投资于此，有多少人能承受这样的局面？历史上已有亚马逊和许多其他公司经历过90%以上的暴跌。如果你把所有存下来的钱都投资在这样的股票上，然后它下降了90%，几乎没有人会继续持有不动。因此，如果我们在这里讨论熊市，彼得展示了一张从大萧条时期起的熊市表格。他表示，如果你是一个30年期的投资者，就需要学会接受这一现象。平均每四年有一个熊市，你应该预期会有很多次这样的重大下跌。如果你在进入市场时没有准备好接受这个事实，那当它真正发生时，你怎么能够坚持持有呢？100%要保持清醒的认知。平均每年有市场调整，每五到六年有熊市。这些不会均匀地分布。优秀的投资者能够熬过这些熊市。

all of that you know bad investors panic and sell great investors love it they embrace it absolutely let's go to lesson number four keep it simple never invest in any idea you can't illustrate with a crayon and this is a hard one for many investors to understand because complexity just sounds better it sounds like adding complexity should give you a higher level of return here i'm just highlighting hedge funds equity hedge funds versus a simple 60 40 and they're doing many of them complicated strategies that most of their investors probably don't have a great understanding of to say the least and you can see here over the last 15 years what a simple 60 40 just s&p 500 and and aggregate bond fund would have done 280 versus the average equity hedge index here up 106 percent i know this stat isn't surprising to you but how do you explain to the average investor why simpler is not only better for them actually in terms of returns but getting back to that know what you own and why you own it

那些你知道的不好的投资者会在恐慌中抛售股票，而伟大的投资者则喜欢这个机会，他们会欣然接受。现在说说第四课：保持简单。永远不要投资于你不能用蜡笔解释清楚的概念。对于许多投资者来说，这一点很难理解，因为复杂听起来更好，似乎增加复杂性应该能带来更高的回报。在这里，我只是想强调一下对冲基金和简单的60/40投资组合（即40%债券和60%标普500）的区别。许多对冲基金使用复杂的策略，其投资者很可能对此并不了解。在过去的15年里，一个简单的60/40投资组合的收益是280%，而平均股票对冲基金指数的收益是106%。我知道这个数据对你来说并不惊讶，但你如何向普通投资者解释，为什么简单不仅对他们更好，实际上在回报方面也是如此？这也回到了你所拥有的东西以及你拥有它的原因。

concept that when you have these big drawdowns well you can understand why stocks are down or why bonds are down in your portfolio much harder when you have these complicated investments and funds where there's really very little transparency in terms of what they're doing yeah Warren Buffett's a big fan along with what you referenced Peter Lynch on this simplicity concept if you can't understand it very clearly someone can't articulate it very clearly you know don't invest in it i mean nrons the classic example of that there's many many many companies that have got underwear no one really knew and then explain it and you're like well i don't really get it this is why i'm not a fan of things that are very derivative like an investment that's a derivative of something else that's a derivative of something else because even if you understand the little investment itself you don't understand the repercussions of a butterfly flies in Mongolia the wrong way what happens to this hedge fund over here right all of the dominoes that start to fall that impact things we saw that in awake on nine where a lot of different investments performed very poorly and they were for reasons that were unanticipated because the products were structured or derivatives in other words it wasn't a pure stock or a pure bond it was something that was tied to something else in some way this is the reason i don't like those things

当你面对大盘下跌的时候，你可能可以理解为什么你的投资组合中的股票或债券会下跌，但当涉及到那些复杂的投资和基金时，就很难看清它们的实际运作，因为缺乏透明度。沃伦·巴菲特和彼得·林奇都推崇投资的简单原则。如果你不能很清楚地理解某个投资项目，或者别人不能清楚解释它，那就不要投资。例如，安然公司就是一个经典案例，许多人并不真正了解这些公司在做什么，这也是为什么我不喜欢那些非常衍生的投资项目——一个衍生于另一个的投资，因为即便你理解了这个小的投资本身，也无法理解它对整体的影响。比如，如果在蒙古一个蝴蝶飞错了方向，可能会对这边的对冲基金产生影响，而这会引发一系列多米诺骨牌效应，影响一切。我们在2009年的金融危机中也看到了这一点，许多投资表现不佳，而且是因为这些产品结构复杂，或者是衍生品，而非单纯的股票或债券。这就是为什么我不喜欢这些复杂投资的原因。

yep let's go to lesson number five and this is a really interesting one knowing one to walk away he talks about one of the reasons i left Magellan was that i wanted to retire well i still had a good record i left the party when they cake in the champagne we're still being served and this is just highlighting his track record really an anomaly right in the industry where he not only did very well and he certainly most of the outperformance came in the early years when the fund was very small and no one was in the fund but even the last five years when it was already the biggest fund in the world it's still he's still outperformed i think five or six percent per year and during the entire period here may 1997 to May 1990 seven 1977 and 1990 29 percent annualized versus 15 for the s&p 500 and there's some parallels here peter to sports if you think about Jim Brown or Barry Sanders retiring after just 10 years in the league or and i often think about Jerry Seinfeld and and he's done some great interviews on that why did he only do 10 seasons you know really left on top what do you make of this ability it's got to be very hard obviously right you're the king of the world here you know the most well-known probably fund manager you know or at least one of them of all time and he's and he's walking away and then we'll talk about the reasons why he was saying he needed to leave at that point i think of Seinfeld like like your reference when i think of this quote about he like he said he went out on wanted to go out on top um or or like he said Brady

好的，让我们进入第五课，这一课非常有趣，它谈到什么时候离开。 他提到他离开美捷伦的原因之一是想在还有良好业绩纪录的时候退休。可以说，他在派对上蛋糕和香槟还在供应的时候离开了。而这只是突显了他的业绩，在行业中实属少见。他不仅在基金规模很小，几乎没有人投资的时候表现出色，而且即使在最后五年，当其已是世界上最大基金之一时，他每年仍然超出市场5%到6%。从1977年5月到1990年5月，他的年化收益率是29%，而同期标准普尔500指数为15%。这里有些类似于体育界的情况，比如吉姆·布朗或巴里·桑德斯在联盟中只打了10年就退役了，或者杰瑞·宋飞（Jerry Seinfeld）只拍了10季就结束了，他在那方面做了一些很棒的采访，为什么只拍10季呢？他真的是在巅峰时刻离开的。你怎么看待这种能力？这当然很难，对吧？当你是世界之王，被认为是其中一位最著名的基金经理时，他选择了离开。然后我们会讨论他当时说他需要离开的原因。我想到Seinfeld时，就像引用中的这句格言，他想在巅峰时刻离开，或者像他说的布雷迪一样。

what's interesting though is it implies that Peter Lynch thinks he doesn't control it right that he recognizes that for all his brilliance at a time where there was not really internet for most of the time that was high speed the market wasn't as efficient he outperformed dramatically but but saying hey i'm walking away while i'm on top implies that he may not stay on top right that it wasn't a repeatable something that was easily repeatable i think that's saying something from a greater investor of that of that time yeah absolutely and in terms of his reasoning here he talks about i'm missing so much of it i went to a soccer game with one of my daughters and i think they lost seven to nothing and i had a great time i went to one soccer game i missed seven and then this is from an interview a few years ago i think in 2021 they asked him do you regret stepping away says i don't keep score i've got 10 grandchildren that's what i keep score on so he really went a way to do things that he wanted to do he was still investing for his family was still a mentor to many people at fidelity where he worked he still actively researched stocks but to him peter it was either 100 100 plus percent or nothing he said he only had two gears and the gear was 80 hours a week where he started working all day saturday and sunday and missing everything else in his life or nothing he couldn't do the in between he had some ready come ready again right there you go right

有趣的是，这段话揭示了彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）对自己控制市场能力的认知。他意识到，即使在他所处的那个没有高速互联网的时代，他凭借着聪明才智在一个效率不如现在的市场中取得了优异的业绩，但他选择在自己事业的顶峰时退出，这也暗示了他可能意识到这种成功不易重复。在当时作为一名伟大的投资者，他的这个决定颇有意味。他说他退出的理由是因为他感到在生活中错过了很多。他提到自己去看了一场女儿的足球比赛，虽然他们输了七比零，但他非常享受。然而，那只是他去看的唯一一场比赛，其余的都错过了。这段采访是在2021年，他被问到是否后悔退出时，他回答说他不在乎那些，他有十个孙子孙女，那才是他所关注的得分。他专注于自己想做的事情，虽然退出了全面的投资工作，但仍然为家人投资，依然是他曾工作过的富达公司的导师，且对股票进行积极研究。然而，对他来说，工作要么是全力以赴的100%投入（每周80小时的工作，从周六日也不间断），要么什么都不是，他没办法做到中间状态。他做好准备就重新出发。

and sometimes it's very hard to switch off that gear when you get to that level um but i think he did it for the right reasons here reminds me that kobe brian you know when he was they asked him what do you do before practice and he said practice he would show up two hours per period practice before practice these people that are operating at that level the the dedication uh that they're having to say no to a lot of other things yeah absolutely all right there you go peter lynch five lessons many more we could do uh if you're watching this and you're thinking about tax season coming up thinking we have over 300 p.a's at creative planning helping people prepare taxes and also working with wealth managers to minimize the taxes you pay and maximize the return so reach out today creative planning dot com slash charlie you're going to get a free wealth path analysis when you schedule a call or a meeting with an advisor we're at all 50 states at creative planning we likely have a location right near you over 345 billion and assets under management advisement we're here to help reach out today creative planning dot com slash charlie

翻译成中文，并尽量表达易读的意思： 有时候，当你达到那个水平时，要关闭这种状态是很难的，但我认为他在这里是出于正确的理由。这让我想起科比·布莱恩特，他们问他练习前做什么，他回答说练习。在练习前，他会提前两个小时到场。这些在高水平运作的人，他们对所做事情的专注往往意味着要对许多其他事情说不。 没错，这就是彼得·林奇的五个经验教训，我们本可以讲更多。如果你在观看这个，并且开始考虑即将到来的税季，我们在Creative Planning有超过300名注册会计师帮人们准备税务，并与财富经理合作来最大限度地减少你所要支付的税款，最大化你的回报。所以今天就联系creativeplanning.com/charlie，安排电话或与顾问会面，你将获得免费的财富路径分析。我们在美国所有50个州都有办事处，可能正好在你附近。我们管理和咨询的资产已超过3450亿美元，随时准备帮助你。今天就访问creativeplanning.com/charlie。

okay peter let's go to signal or noise i know you've been doing some interviews about the tariff situation i first have to say it's kind of hilarious the last two sundays we have pretty much deja vu right futures are down media is putting out all this negative headlines markets going to crash because the tariffs and trade wars and literally 24 hours later columbia caves a deal is reached there's no tariffs there they accept the prisoners who were put on a plane they accept them back to their country and they think the president actually offered his own plane and then a week later you have canada and mexico similar situation negotiations about the border how to secure it and how to prevent drugs from coming through it initially they're they're saying oh this is going to lead to a long and drawn out trade off and then 24 hours later both of them agree to take measures at the border i think they said that mexico was going to send 10 000 of their troops to try to stop the flow of fentanyl across the border so we had talked about this earlier in terms of it's being used obviously here as a policy tool as leverage right to enact this policy but so much noise is out there in terms of well what will this actually mean and there's people making estimations right hit to gdp hit the inflation to me it just seems like all of that is impossible to predict because of just the uncertainty of you could have a deal 24 hours later that changes everything yeah i think the stock market doesn't believe about the permanence of any of these tariffs right i mean that it's literally barely moved if we really believed there was going to be 25% tariffs on mexico and canada and then same on china we're going to get a tariff forward europe and the market believed it was going to go on for six months to a year the market would go down 10 to 20 percent there's no very little question about it market doesn't believe it it believes we're going to have a little bit of a trade war trump's going to get concessions and we're all going to move on now the market could be wrong right it could be we could have an unintended consequence things could get more serious you know who knows but the market just doesn't buy it it's expecting what we're seeing trump saying hey i'm we're going to do this and then there's a quick compromise you know trump administration posts some sort of win you know columbia is taking back um some people that came from columbia and canada's enforcing the border more and mexico is putting troops on the border uh and blocking fentanyl and all in the heat post is winn and then things pause so we don't really know where it's going to go but the market's not buying it

好的，彼得，我们来聊聊信号与噪音。我知道你最近采访了一些关于关税的情况。首先不得不说，过去的两个星期天几乎发生了“似曾相识”的情况，对吧？股指期货下跌，媒体发布一堆负面消息，说市场将因为关税和贸易战而崩溃。结果24小时后，哥伦比亚做出妥协，达成了一项协议，所以没有加征关税。他们接受了那些被送上飞机的囚犯并接回了他们的国家，总统甚至还提供了自己的飞机。然后一周后，加拿大和墨西哥也发生了类似的情况，谈判边境安全和防止毒品入境。起初他们说这会导致漫长而复杂的谈判，但24小时后双方就达成了边境措施的协议。我想他们还说墨西哥会派遣1万名士兵来阻止芬太尼越过边境。 我们之前谈到过这显然被用作一种政策工具和杠杆，但外界有太多噪音，关于这究竟意味着什么，人们在进行各种预测，比如对GDP的影响、对通货膨胀的影响。但我觉得所有这些都难以预测，因为局势太不确定了，可能24小时后就达成一个改变一切的协议。 我觉得股市并不相信这些关税是永久的。股市几乎没有什么变动。如果我们真的相信墨西哥，加拿大，甚至中国要加征25%的关税，然后对欧洲也进行关税，并且市场认为这会持续六个月到一年，市场肯定会下跌10%到20%，这几乎毫无疑问。但市场不买账，它认为我们会经历一场小小的贸易战，特朗普会获得一些让步，然后我们会继续前进。当然，市场可能是错的，事情可能会出现意想不到的严重后果，谁知道呢？但市场不这么认为，它预期看到的是特朗普说要采取行动，然后快速达成妥协，特朗普政府展示某种胜利成果，比如，哥伦比亚接受掉回去的人，加拿大加强边境管控，墨西哥向边境派遣军队阻止芬太尼，所有这些都成为他的胜利，然后事情就暂时停滞。因此，我们并不真正知道未来会怎样，但市场对此并不信任。

yeah that seems to be the case what's interesting to me peters is how we know we didn't hear really anything about tariffs under the four years on their biden but the amount that we collected under biden was actually more than under trump so he actually added additional tariffs mostly uh on on against china and there was not a single word about it and the other thing is dealing with markets is the stock market did very well we know under the trump's first term regardless of those tariffs it did very well under biden's term so this notion that automatically this is going to be bad for stocks bad for earnings bad for the u.s. economy it's not a hundred percent clear to me it seems to just to be a negotiation strategy and every country is doing this the i think it's it's kind of uh the media is kind of portraying it as that as just the u.s is the only one in history to ever put tariffs on anyone when you look at all these countries around the world you see some of them do broad 20 tariffs and they don't have high inflation you have you have many different examples and obviously the situation in china being the most complex right because they're not accepting many of our goods into their country we know we know the situation there is very complicated we know that we want to have some independence in certain industries so it's not even clear cut like should we have no tariffs with anyone that doesn't seem to make sense it's really about getting to a place of fair trade versus this idea of just free trade is always good is that is that how you're thinking about the situation i think i think as mostly agree i think let this couple different things with trump one extremely vocal about it second very high tariffs without a demand that accompanies them right which is a negotiating tactic right but that's what's different here from the way that the biden administration implemented a bunch of tariffs on a bunch of countries you know over time this is much more this is much less thoughtful tariffs on specific things and much more war economic war right but that's what biden wanted and what he was trying to do and this is what trump wants and he's trying to do something very different so it's not a political statement i think they're taking different approaches than maybe the graph is illustrating right okay and just going to the markets here i just want to highlight the sop 500 go back to that chart of smp 500 corrections and we go back to 2018 when that first trade war it was really concentrated which just china back then and where the smp 500 was back then peter uh 2,900 before it we know we're at 6,000 now so we've smp 500 is doubled despite all of this and if you let that noise really impact your long-term investing at that point in time would have been a very bad move i think that's the broader message it's not that there won't be a correction and they won't blame it on tariffs but my bigger point is it's absolutely impossible to say is this good is this bad like just generally saying it's good or bad and then when you when you have the deals literally changing everything 24 hours later all of those assumptions that you're making based on you know were we really going to have 25 percent tariffs on mexico for 10 20 yeah almost impossible but people were talking and acting as if if they were so at my take is simply uh if you're going to look at tariffs they'll put take a bigger picture and really dig into the actual details of what countries are doing to us what we're doing to them what has happened historically it's not as simplistic as simply tariff is always bad in all cases

是的，情况似乎就是这样。有趣的是，我们在拜登执政的四年间几乎没有听到关于关税的消息，但在拜登任期内收取的关税金额实际上比特朗普时期更多。他确实增加了额外的关税，主要是针对中国的，但没有关于此事的任何讨论。 此外，股市表现良好。在特朗普的第一个任期内，尽管有这些关税，股市表现不错，而在拜登任期内也是如此。因此，关于关税对股票、收益和美国经济的负面影响并不完全明确。这似乎只是一个谈判策略，而每个国家都在这样做。媒体似乎将其描述为美国是唯一征收关税的国家，但实际上，全球许多国家都在实施广泛的20%的关税，而且这些国家没有出现高通胀。 显然，中国的情况最为复杂，因为他们不接受我们许多的商品。我们知道那里的情况非常复杂，我们希望在某些行业中拥有一些独立性。因此，仅仅说我们应该取消所有关税并没有意义，关键是要达成公平贸易，而不仅仅是盲目追求自由贸易。 关于特朗普，他对关税的态度非常明确，采取了极高的关税但没有相应的需求，这是一个谈判策略。而拜登政府的关税实施则更具经济战性质，而不是更为审慎地施加在特定事物上。但这正是拜登想要的结果，而特朗普尝试了不同的做法。因此，这并不是一个政治声明，而是不同的策略。 回到股市，我想强调一下标普500指数，回顾2018年首次贸易战时的情况，当时主要集中在中国，并看看标普500指数从2900点翻倍到现在的6000点。尽管经历了这些，标普500指数翻了一番。如果过于关注这些噪音并影响到长期投资，那将是一个错误的选择。 这更广泛的信息是，不是说不会有修正，不是说不会将其归咎于关税，而是，更重要的是，很难简单地说这是好是坏。当协议在24小时内就可以改变时，基于这些假设来做决定几乎是不可能的。所以我的看法是，如果要看关税问题，就要从更大的角度来看，深入了解各国对我们的政策，我们对他们的政策以及历史情况。关税在所有情况下并不一定是坏事。

okay but i think that's a good place then if you're watching this on youtube everyone hit that subscribe button for more content just like it and we'll see you next time on signal or noise

好的，不过我觉得这里是个不错的地方，那么如果你是在 YouTube 上观看这个视频，请大家点击订阅按钮，获取更多类似内容。我们下次在 "Signal or Noise" 再见！