New Optimus Production Report / Lies About New Model Y / Something Happening with Rivian ⚡️
发布时间 2025-01-25 03:19:25 来源
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Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis, quick shout out to my newest patron David W. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. To everybody that corrected me when it comes to the structure of UK dates, I did want to say thank you and apologies for the error, but it was still old news. As predicted, the new Model Y did officially launch in the North American market last night, and I just want to give some credit where it's due. This account, Tesla, Alpha and Omega on X actually got this one right. I'm sharing that because if you remember, this is the same account that we're sharing some of those Optimus rumors. When it comes to the new Model Y, given that this news has been out for about 24 hours, I'm assuming a lot of you have already learned a lot about this North American release. So rather than repeating a lot of the specs with this new vehicle that you may have already heard, to get you all of them in one place, I think Sawyer did the best job of this with his extensive list.
欢迎来到Electrified,我是你的主持人Dylan Loomis。首先感谢我的新赞助人David W. 感谢您选择支持这个频道。对于那些纠正我关于英国日期格式错误的朋友们,我想说谢谢,并为这个错误道歉,不过那已经是旧闻了。正如预测的那样,新的Model Y昨晚正式在北美市场上市,我想向值得称赞的人表示敬意。在X平台上的Tesla, Alpha and Omega账号这次预测正确。我之所以分享这个,是因为如果你还记得的话,这就是之前分享那些Optimus传闻的账号。关于新的Model Y,鉴于这个消息已经出来大约24小时,我想很多人已经对这次北美发布了解不少了。所以,与其重复这个新车型的很多你可能已经听过的规格,我认为Sawyer的详细列表是汇总这些信息的最佳方式。
I'll put this on the screen now for the next little bit so you can read through it, but if you've already seen it, feel free to skip ahead. Kyle and Alyssa from Out of Speck did my favorite review video of the new vehicle, so I'll have that linked below if you're not one of the roughly 400,000 people that's already watched it. The point I wanted to make here was that Kyle was one of those people that did not like the styling of this new Model Y through pictures, but now that he's seen it in person, he actually has become quite a fan of the styling. So as I mentioned, when the China release came out, one, just give yourself time to adjust to the new look as we've all grown so accustomed to the old Model Y and go try to see it and experience it in person before drawing final conclusions. If you watched yesterday's video, you'll know why I was excited about this clip, it's hard to notice, but you'll see the front seat does adjust itself automatically in order for the second row seats to fold down. Oh, the front seat moved forwards? Oh, let's show everyone that really quick.
我现在会把这个放到屏幕上,给大家一些时间阅读。如果你已经看过,可以跳过这部分。Kyle和Alyssa制作的关于新车的评论视频是我最喜欢的之一,我会把链接放在下面,如果你还不是约40万人中看过的之一,可以去看一下。我要表达的是,Kyle起初并不喜欢新款Model Y的照片造型,但当他见到实车后,反而非常喜欢这个设计。正如我提到的,中国发布后,你需要给自己一些时间来适应新外观,因为我们都已经非常习惯旧款Model Y的样子。在下结论之前,尽量亲自去看看、体验一下。如果你看过昨天的视频,你会知道我为什么对这一段感到兴奋,很难注意到,但前排座椅会自动调整,以便第二排座椅可以折叠。哦,前排座椅向前移动了?好,让我们快速展示一下。
No way. So it made forward to move forward to make way for the headrest to clear. That's so smart. And then it comes back. Yeah, nice catch Alyssa. That's awesome. Awesome indeed, Kyle. Before we move on, there is one thing I need to clarify. I've seen so much confusion and disinformation about the pricing of this new vehicle in North America. Listen to this very lazy reporting from car Wow and FYI, I have received copyright strikes from their channel before, so I'm going to leave my face on the screen. It's £52,000. This new one here, they haven't actually explained the full pricing system, but this is a launch edition which gets an extra badge and some slightly different trim on the dash, but other than that, it's the same spec as that car. This is £61,000. So that's an increase of £9,000. If you take away the launch edition, maybe what's that? £2,000 max. It's got more expensive. So what he said was absurd because here's the truth. Well, if you look at the long range all-wheel drive outgoing Model Y, it's £47,990 and the new launch edition £59,990, so a $12,000 premium.
不可能!他们想办法向前移动,使靠枕能够通过。这真聪明!然后它就回来了。对,抓得好,Alyssa。这真是太棒了。确实很棒,Kyle。在我们继续之前,我需要澄清一件事情。我看到很多关于这款新车在北美定价的误解和错误信息。请听听来自Car Wow的这段懒散报道:他们的频道之前还对我发过版权投诉,所以我会把我的脸留在屏幕上。价格是52,000英镑。这里的新款,他们并没有真正解释完整的定价体系,但这是一个限量版车型,有一个额外的徽章和仪表板上一些稍微不同的装饰,但除此之外,它的规格和那款车一样。价格是61,000英镑。所以这是增加了9,000英镑。如果去掉限量版,最多可能是2,000英镑。所以,它变得更贵了。所以他说的真是荒谬,因为事实是这样的:如果你看即将推出的长续航全轮驱动Model Y,它的价格是47,990英镑,而新的限量版是59,990英镑,所以有12,000美元的溢价。
However, here's what's actually included with this launch edition package because no, it's not just some different badging. You can get any paint color, the white interior, the tow hitch, upgraded wheels, the acceleration boost and FSD with all of the badging and other cosmetic upgrades and the entry animation etc. and adding the value of all of those features up, that's between $15,000 and $16,000 depending on the paint color you would actually choose. Another way to put this, if you were to max spec in outgoing Model Y, it would actually be more expensive than the launch edition. So from that point of view, the launch edition would actually be a great deal and no, the vehicle would not be more expensive. But in fairness, the reason this is causing so much confusion is because the question becomes, would you be choosing these upgrades if you were to just go spec your car however you wanted it.
不过,让我们看看这款发售版套装实际包含了什么,因为它不仅仅是换了个标志。您可以选择任何车漆颜色、白色内饰、拖车钩、升级的轮毂、加速提升功能和完整自动驾驶系统(FSD),以及所有标志和其他外观升级、进入动画等。把这些功能的价值加起来,根据选择的车漆颜色不同,总价在15,000到16,000美元之间。换句话说,如果您最大化配置一辆现款Model Y,其实会比发售版更贵。所以从这个角度来看,发售版其实是个不错的选择,而且不会更贵。但公平地说,造成这么多困惑的原因在于,如果您可以随意配置您的车辆,您会选择这些升级吗?
So yes, you have the option to upgrade to all of these features for free, but maybe somebody likes the stealth gray color best, like Sawyer. Maybe you want the black interior, maybe you want the smaller wheels for better efficiency. Maybe you don't want to pay $8,000 upfront for FSD, you get the picture. The launch edition will only be a thing for the next few weeks anyway, so what's going to be more important is where Tesla sets the pricing for each variant when the launch series is done. And sure, we can speculate about what that pricing might be, but the truth is, Tesla might not even yet know for sure what that pricing will be, because as always, they try to match it with demand at the time.
所以,是的,你可以选择免费升级到所有这些功能,但也许有人像索耶一样更喜欢隐形灰色。也许你想要黑色内饰,或者你想要更小的轮子以提高效率。可能你不想提前支付8000美元购买FSD功能,你明白我的意思。首发版只会在接下来的几周内销售,所以更重要的是特斯拉在首发系列结束后对每个型号的定价。我们当然可以猜测这些价格是多少,但实际上,特斯拉可能自己现在也不确定具体价格,因为一如既往,他们试图根据当时的需求来制定价格。
But for what it's worth, given the info we have, it does seem like the pricing in the US will not be that different from the outgoing Model Y pricing right now. I think the biggest storyline here is that Tesla is ramping production of the new Model Y across four factories at the same time, which means they're pretty confident in their ability to change over, and ensure it's a smooth process. Doing it this way does carry higher risk, because there's more that can go wrong at the same time, but of course it avoids the Osborne effect as much as possible as well.
根据我们目前掌握的信息,虽然不知道这是否有价值,但美国的新款Model Y的定价似乎不会与现款有太大差别。我认为,这里最大的看点是特斯拉正在同时在四个工厂提高新款Model Y的产量,这意味着他们对更换生产线的能力非常有信心,确保过程顺利。这种方式确实有更高的风险,因为同时出错的可能性增加了,但当然也尽量避免了奥斯本效应。
And remember, if this production feat isn't hard enough, they're also supposed to launch more affordable vehicles, plural, on these very same production lines in the next six months or so. In case you're wondering what's underneath the 19 inch wheel covers, here you go. It's certainly not the best angle, but it doesn't look too appealing from here. And I know having some caps on here would improve the situation, but there you have it. It might just be me, that's not really a fan of this look, because reading through the comments online, there were actually quite a few that were very positive.
请记住,如果说生产这个已经够难的,他们还计划在接下来的六个月左右,在同样的生产线上推出更多价格实惠的车型。而如果你对19英寸车轮盖下的东西感到好奇,这就是答案。这个角度可能不是最好的,看上去不太吸引人。我知道加上一些盖子可能会改善这种情况,但事实就是这样。也许只是我个人不太喜欢这个外观,因为我在网上查看评论时,实际上发现不少人都给予了积极评价。
As Sawyer shared, the first Model Y off the line at Gigabrelin was signed by the production employees, and it's likely to be displayed at Gigabrelin, so I thought that was pretty cool. To everyone that's disappointed with the lack of new battery pack, longer range, faster charging times, I would just say one, the Model Y is already the best selling car in the world, so if it's not broke, you don't really need to fix it too much type of scenarios. And second, in the battery world, you have to remember, it's always a trade off between three things, performance, cost, and longevity.
正如索耶所分享的,柏林超级工厂生产的第一辆Model Y由生产员工签名,并且可能会在工厂展示,我觉得这挺酷的。对于那些对没有新电池组、更长续航和更快充电时间感到失望的人,我想说两点:首先,Model Y已经是全球销量最好的汽车之一,所以如果它没有问题,就不需要大幅改变。其次,在电池领域,你必须记住,这永远是在性能、成本和寿命之间的权衡。
When you optimize for improving one of those, then usually the other two may suffer. So yes, companies like X-Pang have some vehicles holding 250 kilowatts up until about 80% state of charge, which is very impressive. But let's see one, how long those battery packs last, and two, how reliable they actually are. And X-Pang's stated company goal is to just be break even by the end of 2025, so they're still not turning a profit, making their vehicles. So look, would it be awesome if Tesla had a 500 mile range Model Y with 300 kilowatt charging speeds throughout the whole charging curve? Of course, I would love to see it.
当你优化提升其中一个方面时,通常其他两个方面可能会受到影响。因此,像小鹏这样的公司确实有一些车辆在电量达到约80%之前可以保持250千瓦的充电速度,这非常令人印象深刻。但我们需要看看首先这些电池组能使用多久,其次它们的可靠性如何。而小鹏公司表示的目标是到2025年底实现盈亏平衡,所以他们在制造车辆方面仍未盈利。所以,如果能看到特斯拉推出一款续航500英里的Model Y,并在整个充电过程中保持300千瓦的充电速度,那会非常棒。我当然希望能看到这样的发展。
And I'm quite confident they could do that, it's just it would cost more and maybe the longevity of the battery packs would take a hit. But I'm going to stop rambling, I just wanted to make it clear, there are always reasons Tesla is making the choices they are, it's not like their technology advancements have totally stalled. It's simply the triangle trade off game. So not only did Matt from CarWow put out what I believe to be bad and misleading information, but if you watch the review, really the way I felt is that he was very blase about the whole reveal, almost like he wasn't interested. Instead of poo pooing some of Tesla's new features and not really talking about the things that he didn't get to try which you only experienced driving the vehicle.
我相信他们是能做到的,只是这会花费更多,电池组的寿命可能会受到影响。不过,我该打住了,我只是想说明,特斯拉做出这些选择总是有原因的,并不是他们的技术进步完全停滞不前。这其实就是一个三角权衡的问题。所以,不仅是我认为CarWow的Matt发布了糟糕且具有误导性的信息,而且如果你看了他的评测,你会感觉他对整个发布会表现得很漫不经心,几乎像是不感兴趣。与其贬低特斯拉的一些新功能,还不如多谈谈他没有亲自体验到的东西,这需要开着车才能真正感受。
In my book that's egregious reporting for a channel of this size, but let's move on. James Wang who used to work at Nvidia and ARK Invest said Tesla FSD is not remotely close to Weimel right now, it's behind by at least 100x. Yes, it's getting better but scaling laws can't do its magic with fixed amount of compute, this is based on using both regularly. He said this is my experience in the San Francisco Bay Area, I have to make daily interventions on the Model 3 mostly from wrong lane selection, Weimel you can basically go to sleep. It's true, Tesla's way ahead in geographical coverage, but 99% FSD on 100% of roads is of limited value.
在我看来,这对于一个如此规模的频道而言是极其错误的报道,但我们先继续。曾在英伟达和ARK投资工作过的詹姆斯·王表示,特斯拉的自动驾驶(FSD)目前远远不及Weimel,至少落后100倍。没错,特斯拉的自动驾驶技术确实在进步,但在固定的计算能力下规模化增长也有其极限。这是基于他对两者的日常使用经验。他表示,在旧金山湾区,他使用Model 3时几乎每天都需要人工干预,主要是因为选错车道,而使用Weimel时几乎可以完全放心甚至打瞌睡。虽然特斯拉在地理覆盖范围上遥遥领先,但如果99%的自动驾驶能力仅能在100%的道路上使用,其实际价值还是有限的。
I'd be shocked and delighted if it managed to get to Weimel level safety without hardware changes, I'm long Tesla. I'm sharing all of that because Phil Duwan and AI engineer at Tesla replied saying prepare to be shocked. Translation, Tesla's internal FSD team is feeling quite confident about at least getting two Weimel level safety without any hardware changes and potentially soon. As always though this whole conversation is frustrating because we don't have any actual data to compare, the whole thing is very subjective. The number that floats around for Weimel is one critical disengagement for every 17,000 miles, but that's with a safety driver from their testing in 2023. And that sample size was only on about 3.5 million miles of testing data. Obviously without a supervisor in the vehicle, then the question becomes well, what is a critical disengagement? Is it any time somebody from the remote operating center actually intervenes? And on Tesla side, we don't have any official data for miles between interventions or how they're classifying their interventions. And yes, I know the community tracker exists, but again, it's quite a small sample size. You know what they say though, it takes two sides to make a market and hopefully over the next 12 months, Tesla's AI engineers can indeed provide shocking results. No shocker here, but BYD, Glee and SAIC along with some Chinese automotive industry bodies are suing the European Commission over those new tariffs on EV imports. These were the tariffs that were imposed after a year long review of these Chinese auto companies and the EU came to the conclusion that China is using unfair subsidies and they're dumping their cheap EVs into the European market, which is distorting and harming the European industry.
如果特斯拉能够在不进行硬件更改的情况下达到Weimel级别的安全性,我会感到非常惊讶和高兴。我持有特斯拉的股票。我分享这些是因为特斯拉的人工智能工程师Phil Duwan回应说,要做好准备迎接惊讶。也就是说,特斯拉内部的全自动驾驶团队对在没有硬件更改的情况下,至少能达到Weimel级别的安全性非常有信心,而且可能很快会实现。然而,这整个讨论令人沮丧,因为我们没有任何实际数据可以比较,整个事情非常主观。据说Weimel每行驶17,000英里有一次关键断开,但这是基于他们2023年有安全驾驶员情况下的测试结果。而且这个数据样本只有约350万英里的测试数据。显然在没有车内监督员的情况下,问题就变成了关键断开是什么?是指远程操作中心人员实际干预的任何时刻吗?对于特斯拉,我们没有官方的数据来说明干预间的行驶里程或他们如何分类干预。是的,我知道有社区追踪器,但样本量还是比较小。俗话说,市场需要双方的看法,希望在接下来的12个月内,特斯拉的人工智能工程师确实能带来令人惊讶的成果。
毫无意外的是,BYD、吉利和上汽以及一些中国汽车行业机构正在就新的电动车进口关税起诉欧盟委员会。这些关税是在对这些中国汽车公司的为期一年的审查后实施的,欧盟得出的结论是,中国正在使用不公平的补贴,并向欧洲市场倾销廉价电动车,从而扭曲并损害了欧洲的产业。
The three arguments against these tariffs in the lawsuit are one, challenging the assertion that certain funds actually constitute subsidies. Two, the way those subsidies are calculated and then three, that they actually caused harm to the EU, but it's not just those three companies and the industry bodies. We also have Tesla and BMW who have also filed cases against the duties. Tesla cut a side deal on this one and they got that special tariff rate of only 8%, whereas other companies like VW, where they weren't as cooperative, are up as high as 35%. When I say VW, it's through their joint venture with SAIC. The goal of the lawsuits are to get rid of the law that imposes these tariffs and if the courts were to side with these exporting companies, then they might be able to claim back some of those losses.
在这场诉讼中,针对这些关税的三个反对理由包括:第一,质疑某些资金是否真的构成补贴。第二,这些补贴的计算方式。第三,它们是否确实对欧盟造成了损害。不过,诉讼并不只是由这三个公司和行业机构提起。特斯拉和宝马也针对这些关税提起了诉讼。特斯拉通过一个协议达成了协议,只需支付8%的特别关税,而其他公司如大众汽车,由于没有那么配合,税率高达35%。这里提到的大众是通过其与上汽的合资企业。诉讼的目标是废除执行这些关税的法律。如果法院站在这些出口公司的立场上,他们可能会要求追回部分损失。
This may not seem like much on the surface, but here's some napkin math to prove that this is quite a big deal. So right now, Tesla exports roughly 300,000 cars from Shanghai to the EU every year. If you assume an average selling price of $50,000, that's $15 billion in revenue. If you slap an 8% tariff on that, that's an extra $1.2 billion in cost for Tesla. As always with napkin math, it's not analysis, it's just trying to get us in the right ballpark. I saw Luca Greco with some new reporting that Optimus was going to be using magnesium for production and this was coming from some Chinese sources, so I tracked those down. But I wanted to give credit where it's due as Luca was the first one that put this out. Here's one of the Chinese sources talking about this, just know there were multiple. Tesla using a magnesium alloy for actuators and motor housings. Since it's not official, I'll just hit you with the high level takeaways. One benefit would be lighter weight, so if Optimus weighs between 120 and 140 pounds, this could knock off about 10% of the weight. Lighter weight makes Optimus more agile, less stress on the actuators and all of the joints over time. Second benefit, heat dissipation. Magnesium alloy is 50% better than aluminum, which can reduce the temperature of actuators and motors during operation. The price might be lower, but this is going to fluctuate over time and it also might cost more to actually process, so you have to factor that in as well. And they said magnesium could have better shock absorption than an aluminum alloy, it can reduce the noise, and it can help to reduce vibrations. They talked about supply chain impacts for these Chinese companies, but I think that's too far in the weeds for most people, so pause the screen and read if you'd like, and I'll have the full article below. Some of the challenges with magnesium though, the processing of these alloys is relatively difficult. Creed Bratton's job, quabity, ashuents, I mean quality control may be a bit more difficult. And again the cost, because while raw material pricing may be lower, the cost to process it may be higher. I'll leave it there for now, given that this is unconfirmed, but definitely a thread to watch.
这可能表面上看起来不算什么,但我们来做个简单的计算,证明这实际上是个大问题。现在,特斯拉每年大约会从上海向欧盟出口30万辆汽车。如果假设汽车的平均售价为5万美元,那么这就是150亿美元的收入。如果在此基础上加征8%的关税,那么特斯拉将增加12亿美元的成本。简单计算并不是深入分析,但可以让我们感受到问题的严重性。
我看到Luca Greco的一些新报道说Optimus打算在生产中使用镁,这个消息来自一些中国消息源,所以我去查证了一下。但要感谢Luca,因为他是第一个指出这一点的人。以下是其中一个中文消息来源的说法,请注意,这里有多个来源。特斯拉将使用镁合金来制造执行器和电机外壳。因为这不是官方消息,我只说说一些重要的点。
第一,重量更轻。如果Optimus重约120到140磅的话,用镁合金可以减少约10%的重量,较轻的重量让Optimus更加灵活,并减少长时间使用对执行器和所有关节的压力。第二,散热性能。镁合金的散热性能比铝好50%,能够降低执行器和电机在运行时的温度。
价格可能较低,但也会随时间波动,而且加工过程中可能需要更高的成本,因此也必须考虑在内。报道中还提到镁合金可能比铝合金有更好的减震性能,可以降低噪音及减小震动。虽然他们也谈到了供应链对这些中国公司的影响,不过这部分内容可能比较深奥,一般读者不需太过关注,如果感兴趣可以暂停屏幕阅读,我会附上完整文章。
不过,使用镁存在一些挑战,例如这些合金的加工相对困难。质量控制可能有点难度。此外,虽然原材料价格可能较低,但加工费用可能较高。因此,目前先说到这里,因为这尚未得到证实,但无疑是值得关注的动向。
I read your comments, I know enough of you are interested in AI news as part of the channel, maybe toward the end of episodes, but when it comes to this Stargate project, right now it'll be best to wait until all of the dust settles, rather than trying to read all of the moving details that are taking place right now. The cliff notes, open AI came out and said this project was going to help the whole world, and it'll be up to a $500 billion project. Fast forward about 24 hours, and now the word is they don't really have the money lined up, the project is very early in its planning stages, and it's actually only going to benefit open AI. From sources that the Financial Times talked to, Stargate has not yet secured the funding, it'll receive no government financing, and it will only serve open AI when it's done. They said the project is far from a fully developed plan, they have not figured out the structure, they have not figured out the financing, they don't have the money committed. The company's hope to raise a combination of equity from their existing backers and debt.
我看到了你们的评论,了解到很多人对作为频道一部分的AI新闻感兴趣,也许可以放在节目最后。不过关于这个Stargate项目,现在最好还是等事情尘埃落定之后再说,而不是现在去分析那些不断变化的细节。目前有个概要,OpenAI曾表示这个项目将有利于全世界,并且规模可能达到5000亿美元。可不到24小时后,消息指出他们实际上并没有准备好资金,项目还处于规划的初期阶段,并且最终可能只对OpenAI有利。根据《金融时报》采访的消息来源,Stargate项目尚未获得资金,没有政府资助,并且完成后只会服务于OpenAI。他们表示,这个项目还远未成形,尚未弄清楚结构,资金也没有到位。公司希望通过现有投资者的股权和债务结合来筹集资金。
That clip of Satya Nadella talking about he's good for his $80 billion, well that's going to be separate from the Stargate project. Microsoft is still entitled to about half of the profits from open AI's for-profit subsidiary, but for Stargate, Microsoft is only providing tech support, not capital. There are plans however to appoint an independent CEO and a board. The company would be split into an operational unit tasked with building and running the data centers and headed by open AI, and a unit responsible for raising capital run by Softbank. Work is underway on the first facility for Stargate in Abilene, Texas, and at this site Oracle is planning to buy $7 billion of chips to power the site and they'll provide that power to Microsoft, which will then use it to power open AI.
纳德拉谈论他值800亿美元的那段视频与Stargate项目无关。微软仍有权获得OpenAI子公司利润的大约一半,但在Stargate项目中,微软只提供技术支持,不投入资本。不过,计划任命一位独立的CEO和一个董事会。公司将被分为两个部门:一个由OpenAI领导,负责建设和运营数据中心;另一个由软银负责,负责筹集资金。正在德克萨斯州阿比林建设Stargate的第一个设施。在这个地点,甲骨文计划购买价值70亿美元的芯片为设施供电,然后微软将利用这些电力为OpenAI提供动力。
In short from everything I'm reading, there's definitely real intent for this team to see this project through, but it's certainly in the earlier stages than I think they led people to believe. Why would they rush an announcement like this? Well, it's pretty obvious everybody wants to do some splashy things in the first week of a new administration. And I don't know if Elon has any inside information on this news or not, but responding to that reporting from the Financial Times, Elon said, true. A pre-existing supercharger location in Sweden has been upgraded to not only the four posts, but it's going to be fully covered by solar panels as well for the first time. And despite the strike situation, Tesla does not expect any delays here because it was an already existing and connected location. Joe Tett Myers on the ground at Gigataxis and he said the first of several dozen test units of the new Model Y are happening now on the same production line as the older generation. The ramping of the new car will happen over the next few weeks and takes advantage of line upgrades and changes over the past few months. Joe also shared some video footage of the Cyber Cab driving around Gigah Austin today, but it's notable because this was without the chase cars.
总的来说,从我读到的一切来看,这个团队确实有意识要完成这个项目,但显然它的发展阶段比他们让人们相信的要早。那么他们为什么要急于发布这样的公告呢?这很明显,因为在新政府的第一个星期,每个人都想做一些引人注目的事情。我不知道埃隆是否对这些消息有内部信息,但在回应《金融时报》的报道时,埃隆确认消息属实。瑞典的一个现有超级充电站不仅升级了四个充电桩,还首次全面覆盖了太阳能板。尽管存在罢工情况,特斯拉并不预期这里会有任何延误,因为这是一个已经存在并连接好的地点。Joe Tett Myers 在 Gigataxis 现场,他表示,新款 Model Y 的几打测试单元现在正在与旧款在同一生产线上生产。新车型将在接下来的几周内加速生产,并利用过去几个月对生产线的升级和改变。Joe 还分享了今天 Cyber Cab 在 Gigah Austin 周围行驶的一些视频片段,值得注意的是这次没有追踪车辆。
I haven't seen many talking about this, but it could develop into pretty material news. We now have the European Union working on a proposal for block wide purchase incentives for EVs. The Commission has now taken up a proposal for harmonized, Europe wide purchase premiums or incentives for e-cars. We also have Germany proposing a temporary tax deduction to promote the purchase of EVs produced in Germany, which yes in theory would be beneficial for Gigabrelin unless they find a way to somehow exclude Tesla from these incentives. I could not find anything out there about specifics of what type of incentives they're considering, but hopefully we get more in the weeks ahead. Given the hit that Tesla sales took in 2024, largely thanks to the removal of some of these purchase incentives, adding them back across the EU would be an awesome thing. At least when it comes to Tesla sales.
我没有看到很多人讨论这个,但这可能会发展成相当重要的新闻。目前,欧盟正在制定一项关于全欧范围内对电动汽车(EV)进行购买激励的提案。欧盟委员会已经采纳了关于全欧洲统一的电动汽车购买补贴或激励措施的提案。同时,德国正在提议暂时性的税收减免,以促进购买在德国生产的电动汽车,这理论上会有利于Gigabrelin,除非他们找到办法把特斯拉排除在这些激励措施之外。目前我没有找到关于他们考虑提供何种具体激励的信息,但希望在接下来的几周能看到更多消息。鉴于特斯拉在2024年的销量受到了一些购买激励取消的严重影响,在欧盟范围内恢复这些激励措施对特斯拉的销售无疑是一件好事。
The Wall Street Journal put out a report sharing an email reportedly from Elon to his ex-staff. In that email, Elon said, we've witnessed the power of ex in shaping national conversations and outcomes, but our user growth is stagnant, revenue is unimpressive, and we're barely breaking even. Not the most optimistic email if it's true, but the further out of the red and into the black ex can become, the lower the chances become that Elon would need to sell more Tesla to finance ex. The Cybertruck program manager said that the off-road armor and rocker accessory launch running with delays but will likely be here by the end of March. They're finishing delivering the wheel covers to customers, they've secured supply, but distribution is the bottleneck now they're 32% complete, and they're working on air suspension controls and feature improvements.
《华尔街日报》发布了一份报告,分享了一封据称是埃隆·马斯克发给前员工的电子邮件。在那封邮件中,马斯克表示,我们已经见证了“ex”在塑造国家对话和结果方面的力量,但我们的用户增长停滞不前,收入不佳,仅能勉强持平。如果这封邮件属实的话,内容并不乐观,但如果“ex”能逐渐摆脱赤字并实现盈利,埃隆就不太可能需要出售更多特斯拉股票来资助“ex”。Cybertruck项目经理表示,越野装甲和摇臂配件的发布虽然有延迟,但预计会在3月底前推出。他们正在完成对客户的轮毂盖交付,供应已经得到保障,但目前配送是瓶颈,现在已完成32%,他们正在进行空气悬挂控制和功能改进。
Very quietly, there seems to be a shift happening around Rivian from just a company that makes EVs to maybe becoming more of a technology licensing play. It's early, but Rivian is now saying they're in talks with other automakers beyond VW about supplying their software and electrical architecture, this from a senior exec. I'd say many other OEMs are knocking on our door. Now he declined to say what companies and how far along the talks actually are, but he said there is demand, obviously other OEMs are talking to us and we're trying to figure out how to support that in the future. Any other OEM who wants to make a leap from a technology standpoint, the joint venture today becomes one of the key partners with whom they can make that collaboration. Further, an analyst from Canicor Genuity has said that this venture between VW and Rivian is likely to become the platform of choice in the western world apart from Tesla. Honestly, a great thing from Rivian, it could lead to future cash infusions and it really gives them another wildcard in their hand.
很安静地,Rivian似乎正在从一家电动车制造公司转型,可能会更多地成为一个技术许可公司。这一切还处于早期阶段,但是Rivian现在表示,他们正在与除大众汽车之外的其他汽车制造商进行谈判,计划提供他们的软件和电气架构。这是来自Rivian一位高管的消息。他说,很多其他的原始设备制造商(OEM)正在找上门来。不过,他没有透露具体是哪家公司,以及谈判进行到什么阶段,但他表示确实有市场需求,其他OEM正在与我们交流,我们正在努力找出今后如何提供支持。任何其他OEM如果想在技术上取得突破,今天的合资企业将成为他们能够与之合作的重要伙伴之一。此外,Canicor Genuity的一位分析师表示,除了特斯拉,这次与大众的合作可能成为西方世界的首选平台。对Rivian来说,这无疑是一件好事,它可能带来未来的现金注入,并且真正为他们增添了一张底牌。
RJ Scorange also said that over the next few years in the EV world, there will be a high degree of uncertainty, but the removal of the tax credit is less impactful than people believe. But the reason he said that, I don't think removing a $7,500 credit is going to change the end state. The end state is still clear, it's going to be electric. The problem with that statement is it doesn't really account for the next few years. RJ also just said, I say this all the time to friends of mine who run big car companies don't stop investing. You're going to find yourself in the 2030s upside down. Rivian, Tesla, the Chinese, we have a full throttle focus on EV. And if you're doing that as your 10% job as an automaker, you're going to be in rough shape in 10 years. He said if you're optimizing purely for profitability in the next two years and you're a traditional legacy manufacturer, you could very easily make the spreadsheet case to say let's double down on combustion or let's double down on hybrid. Which I think is a big miscalculation for the long term. So I guess RJ is.
RJ Scorange表示,未来几年电动车领域将充满高度不确定性,但取消税收抵免的影响并没有人们想象的那么大。他认为,取消7500美元的抵免不会改变最终结果。最终结果是明确的,那就是电动化。然而,这句话的问题在于它没有真正考虑到未来几年。RJ还说,他经常对大车企的朋友说不要停止投资,否则到了2030年代可能会陷入困境。无论是Rivian、特斯拉,还是中国的企业,我们都在全力专注于电动汽车。如果车企只把这作为10%的工作来做,那么10年后将会面临艰难处境。他指出,如果传统车企在接下来两年内仅为了最大化盈利,很容易在表面上找到理由继续投资内燃机或混合动力。但是他认为这从长远来看是一个重大误判。所以,RJ的观点是这样的。
We accept that. Here's some unfortunate commentary from Trump that hopefully Elon can push back on in time. When the wind blows and then it doesn't blow and the things goes to fortune that made in China, they killed the birds and they're horrible. We don't want windmills in this country. I'm going to put it. We're putting an order on it. I've already sort of done it. We don't want windmills. If you have a house and you're in vision of a windmill, your house is worth half. It's a disaster. And nobody wants them and they're the most expensive energy of any kind of energy. You know what else? People don't like those massive solar fields built over land that cover 10 miles by 10 miles. I mean, they're ridiculous the whole thing. And by the way, you know where the panels come from, 100% of the panels made in China.
我们接受这一点。这是特朗普的一些不幸评论,希望埃隆能够及时回应。特朗普说,当风吹的时候,然后不再吹,那些在中国制造的东西给人带来不幸,它们杀死了鸟类,很糟糕。我们不想要风车。我会下令禁止,我已经开始着手了。我们不想要风车。如果你有一栋房子,并且能看到风车,你的房子价值就会减半,这是一场灾难。没有人想要它们,并且它们是所有能源中最贵的。你知道吗?人们也不喜欢那些占地100平方英里的大型太阳能电站,我觉得这一切都很荒唐。顺便说一下,那些面板都是在哪制造的?100%是在中国制造的。
Just on the data I read, that's just not true. So this report goes over data from 2023. The global weighted average LCOE or levelized cost of energy of new onshore wind projects was 67% lower than the weighted average fossil fuel fired alternative. And we know how much Elon believes in the power of harnessing the sun and the power of solar, even if yes, we need to decouple that supply chain from China. In my eyes, long term, that's definitely not a good enough reason to just throw away this technology altogether. For what it's worth, Troy Teslike has his realistic delivery expectations for Tesla for 2025 at 1.8 million. So yes, it's been added to the prediction tracker. I thought this one was funny and something to watch.
根据我阅读的数据,这并不属实。这个报告覆盖了2023年的数据。全球新建陆上风电项目的加权平均LCOE(平准化能源成本)比化石燃料发电的加权平均成本低67%。我们知道埃隆非常相信太阳能的潜力,即便是我们需要将供应链与中国脱钩。在我看来,从长期来看,这显然不是完全放弃这项技术的充分理由。据说,Troy Teslike对特斯拉2025年的现实交付预期是180万辆。所以,是的,这个预期已经被加入了预测跟踪器。我觉得这很有趣,值得关注。
The interest rates will come down. Do you say the only demand that the interest rates come down? I would put in a strong statement. Did you expect the Fed to listen to you? Yeah. Tesla stock closed the week at $406.58 down 1.41% on the day while the NASDAQ was down 0.5%. It was another very low volume day for Tesla trading about 35% below the average. Hope you guys have a safe and wonderful weekend. Please like the video if you did. You can find me on X-linked below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
利率将会下降。你只是要求利率降低吗?我会给出一个强有力的声明。你是否预期美联储会听从你的意见?是的。特斯拉股票本周收于406.58美元,当日下跌1.41%,而纳斯达克下跌0.5%。对于特斯拉来说,这是又一个低交易量的交易日,约比平均水平低35%。希望大家度过一个安全快乐的周末。如果你喜欢这个视频,请点赞。你可以在下方找到我的个人链接,非常感谢所有支持我的Patreon用户。谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢,谢谢。