Live: Tesla Q4 Earnings Report Coverage & Analysis (Q4-24)

out malware here. Thanks for joining today. Of course, we're going to be going through Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings report. If you are joining the live stream, glad to have you with us. We should have the earnings report come out in about 10 to 15 minutes or so. We'll chat a little bit before that. If you're joining afterwards, the timestamp will indicate when the actual earnings report does release. Also in the show description, you'll find a link to the earnings call to come later today. We'll listen to that together. I'll take notes and then we can chat about that afterwards as well. But good to be back. Good to see everyone for this quarterly check-in. Always a fun time.

在这里检测恶意软件。感谢您今天加入。我们将一起查看特斯拉2024年第四季度的财报。如果您正在观看直播，很高兴有您一起参与。财报大约会在10到15分钟后发布。在这之前我们会稍微聊一下。如果您是之后加入的，可以通过时间戳查看财报发布的具体时间。在节目描述中，您还会找到今天晚些时候财报电话会议的链接。我们会一起收听这个会议，我会做笔记，然后我们可以在会后再聊聊。很高兴再次见到大家，进行这个季度的回顾。每次都很有趣。

It's been a pretty crazy last quarter for Tesla, obviously at least with the stock price we can see today going into earnings we're down a couple of percent, tougher day for the NASDAQ 2. Down about six-tenths of a percent. It's actually recovered a little bit throughout the day, maybe related to the FOMC meeting and comments. Seemed like we had a little bit of a jump after that. Haven't followed that super closely, so probably have to look more at the news for what's going on there. But anyway, we had into earnings at about $390 or share here. Of course, over the last few months that we've had a pretty steep increase, obviously since the election time period and things like that. And then we obviously had a strong reaction to the Q3 earnings report as well. So I think those things in tandem probably obviously pretty significantly contributing to the rise that we've seen here in the last few months. But nice to be at this $390 share price once again, even if it is a little bit lower than where we peaked at in recent days.

特斯拉过去的一个季度确实有些疯狂，尤其是从今天的股价来看，在公布财报前我们已经下跌了几个百分点，而纳斯达克指数今天的情况也不太好，下跌了大约0.6%。不过，股市在一天中有所反弹，这可能与美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议及其相关评论有关。看起来，在那之后股市有一些上升，但我没有非常密切地跟踪，可能需要查看新闻了解具体情况。不管怎样，我们在财报前股价大约是390美元/股。过去几个月股价有个明显的涨幅，尤其是从选举期间开始，然后我们对第三季度财报也有强烈的市场反应。我觉得这些因素共同作用，显然对最近几个月股价上涨起到了显著影响。很高兴再次看到股价达到390美元，尽管比最近的最高点略低了一些。

So before we get into earnings, I just wanted to chat a little bit before that comes out about the last quarter. If anyone has any questions or anything, feel free to put those in the chat. I see a super chat there. Thank you for that. I'll try to keep an eye on those things. Sometimes the super chats, even if they're like a dollar or whatever, make it a little bit easier to see if you do have a specific question that you'd like me to take a look at. And of course, after the earnings report, we'll have a little bit more time for that as well. So I guess first thing, let's just take a look at kind of what analyst consensus and expectations are as we head into the earnings report, and then I can share just a little bit of thoughts on my end. Let's switch over to Excel here.

在我们深入探讨财报之前，我想先聊聊上一季度的情况。如果大家有任何问题或想法，欢迎在聊天中提出。我看到有一个超级留言，谢谢你的支持。如果你有特别想让我关注的问题，可以通过超级留言提问，即使只是一美元，也更容易被注意到。当然，在财报发布之后，我们会有更多时间来解答这些问题。那么首先，我们来看看分析师的共识和预期，然后我可以分享一些自己的看法。让我们切换到Excel表格来看看。

So once we get the actual numbers, we'll fill this in so we can kind of level set versus previous quarters and versus consensus. But as you can see, consensus is available here. Really nice quarter. We haven't talked about deliveries or energy yet. Obviously, the delivery number all time high energy deliveries also an all time high deliveries were a little bit short of the 510, 510, 510, 510 or so that it would have required for Tesla to have a year over your growth, which is actually what they said to expect heading into the quarter. So a bit of a miss on deliveries in terms of those expectations that Tesla set. But I think if you kind of look at the business and aggregate, if you merge deliveries between auto and energy, I think the energy storage probably, you know, making up for most of if not all of that shortfall in the delivery number, at least in terms of the profit that's probably going to be generated from those line items.

一旦我们获取到实际的数据，我们会更新这些信息，以便能够相对于之前几个季度以及市场预期进行比较。正如你所见，这里已经有市场预期的数据。这个季度表现非常出色。我们还没有讨论交付情况或能源方面的数据。显然，交付数字达到了历史新高，能源交付同样也是历史新高。不过，交付量略低于达到 510、510、510、510 左右的预期，这个数字是特斯拉为了实现年度增长所需要的，他们在进入这个季度时曾表示要达到这一目标。因此，交付量在特斯拉设定的预期上稍有差距。但我认为如果从整体业务来看，将汽车与能源的交付合并考量的话，能源储存可能在利润方面弥补了交付数量的大部分甚至全部不足。

So overall, obviously, still a record setting quarter, I think a strong quarter for Tesla. And since then, now we're heading into 2025, which should bring, hopefully, you continue for their advancements in full self driving, which we'll talk a little bit more about in a second. Obviously, we've seen the new Model Y update in the last couple of weeks. So excited about that. It seems like Tesla has a pretty good strategy in terms of ramping up production, rolling that out as we begin the year here. Anyway, looks like about 27.1, 27.2 billion dollars expected in terms of revenue by analysts. That's a little bit higher than last quarter, a little bit less than 10% higher than last quarter. Total gross profit, they're expecting about five billion pretty close to last quarter. So expecting lower gross margins this quarter, last quarter, we did have a couple of notable items on the gross margin line. Regulatory Reddit regulatory credits were about $740 million. That was down from Q2, but still relatively higher than where we had seen regulatory credits coming in. So I wouldn't be surprised if they're around that level again, but just a significant portion when we're talking about specifically the gross profit line, since obviously those regulatory credits flow through.

总的来说，这显然是一个创纪录的季度，我认为这是特斯拉的一个强劲季度。自那以来，我们现在正进入2025年，希望他们在全自动驾驶方面能够继续取得进展，稍后我们会稍微谈一下。显然，过去几周我们看到了新款Model Y的更新，让人兴奋。特斯拉在增加产量方面似乎有一个不错的战略，我们开始这一年时将推出新产品。无论如何，分析师预计特斯拉的收入大约为271亿至272亿美元，比上季度高出不到10%。预计总毛利润约为50亿美元，与上季度相近。因此，预计本季度的毛利率会较低。上个季度的毛利率中有几个重要项目，包括约7.4亿美元的监管信贷收入，虽然比第二季度有所减少，但仍相对较高。所以我不意外如果本季度也维持在这个水平，因为这些监管信贷显然会影响到毛利润。

So something to keep an eye on there, excuse me. And then we did have, I've got a little note down here, but we did have $326 million of FSD revenue recognized in the third quarter related to Cybertruck and certain features, like actually smart summon. So I think people get this a little bit mixed up. It's both of those items, Cybertruck and actually smart summon. I think a good portion of that is Cybertruck, but not necessarily all of it. That definitely, at least in my opinion, contributed to the milestone that Tesla announced last quarter, which was achieving profitability on the Cybertruck. I would be a little bit surprised if that's the case in Q4. I don't know that we saw that much more significant volume, but hopefully Tesla is continuing to keep those costs coming down.

需要注意的是，抱歉。然后，我们有一笔小笔记，第三季度我们确认了3.26亿美元的FSD（完全自动驾驶）收入，这与Cybertruck和某些功能有关，比如智能召唤。很多人可能对此有些混淆，这笔收入涉及两方面：Cybertruck和智能召唤。我认为，这里面很大一部分与Cybertruck有关，但不一定全部如此。在我看来，这一收入确实有助于特斯拉在上个季度所宣布的一个里程碑，就是Cybertruck达到了盈利。我会有点惊讶如果在第四季度这种情况持续发生，不确定我们是否会看到更显著的销量增长，但希望特斯拉能够继续降低成本。

Really the best way for anyone to look at it, including Tesla. I'm sure this is how they're looking at it. It's just the average cost of goods sold on those vehicles as production continues to ramp for Cybertruck. So factoring out the FSD revenue and deferred revenue specifically on that, obviously that should calculate into overall automotive gross margins and the Cybertruck margins and things. It is real money, real profit that Tesla has earned. Just the deferred portion, if you take revenue that you earned in a previous quarter and you apply that in a time margin revenue in one quarter specifically, it's going to inflate that quarter, not necessarily in a way that's sustainable going forward. So that's the only thing to just keep an eye on. Or more things, but one thing to keep an eye on is that deferred revenue.

这段文字表达的意思是，对于任何人来说，包括特斯拉，最好的看法是关注车辆的平均销售成本，特别是在Cybertruck生产持续增加的情况下。我相信特斯拉也是这样看的。要剔除完全自动驾驶（FSD）收入和递延收入，它们应该计入整体汽车毛利和Cybertruck的利润中。这是特斯拉实际赚到的钱，只是递延的部分。如果你把在前一个季度获得的收入应用到一个特定季度，那可能会让这个季度的数据显得更好，但这并不一定是可持续的。所以，需要注意的是递延收入。当然，还有其他需要注意的点，但这其中一个就是递延收入。

We may still get some more in this fourth quarter we'll have to see, but those two in tandem about a billion dollars in relatively high margin revenue. So I think that's part of why analysts are even with the higher delivery number expecting maybe a little bit of a drop in gross margin. That's probably fair. Ultimately, at the end of the day, we're seeing a forecast to drop in operating margin as well. And then gap earnings for share up a little bit again on the higher revenue base. So even though your percentages here are a little bit lower when you're generating more revenue, that means more profit in terms of the dollars. So ultimately, analysts are expecting about 77 cents non-gap earnings per share, 66 cents gap. One note on the gap earnings for share, you may remember that last year Tesla had deferred revenue recognized that really inflated gap earnings per share by about $1.70 it looks like.

在这个第四季度，我们可能还会拿到更多，不过还要看情况。但这两项加起来大约十亿美元的收入，利润率相对较高。所以，我认为这也是为什么即便交付数量较高，分析师们还是预计毛利率会有一些下降。这可能是合理的。最终来看，我们的营业利润率也预计会有所下降。不过，由于整体营收增加，按每股收益计算的差额有可能会轻微上升。所以，即使你的百分比稍微低一些，当你创造了更多的收入时，这就意味着以美元计算的利润会更多。因此，分析师们预计非GAAP每股收益大约是77美分，GAAP每股收益是66美分。关于GAAP每股收益，有一点需要注意，你可能还记得去年特斯拉确认的一部分递延收入，导致GAAP每股收益看起来增加了大约1.70美元。

So as we get these numbers, if you look at a price to earnings ratio, we factored that out in sort of our historical number here. But if you're looking at price to earnings ratio, that's just going to report the gap number. So that's going to be inflated. That deferred tax revenue adjustment will drop off once we get these numbers. So just something to keep in mind that the price to earnings ratio will spike a bit after this, unless we have for some reason, and insanely good quarter, which one even makes sense. So a couple of things just keep an eye on as we head into the earnings report here.

当我们得到这些数据时，如果你查看市盈率，我们在这里的历史数据中已经考虑到了这一点。但如果你在看市盈率，它仅仅会反映出差距的数字，这样就会显得虚高。一旦我们得到这些数据，递延税收收入调整就会消失。因此，要记住市盈率会在这之后有所上升，除非我们出于某种原因，有一个超乎寻常好的季度，否则这种情况也不太合理。因此，在我们公布财报时，要注意几件事情。

All right, so let's see. Thank you all for those super chats. Appreciate that. Lily Warbird team JG. All right, we've got a couple of minutes before market close. Let me switch over back to the browser. We'll just keep an eye on things as we head into close. We should get the earnings report. I don't know. A few minutes after close, generally it seems like it's been within five minutes. Eric asking, appreciate the super chat. Eric asking if I'm higher or lower earnings for share than consensus. I stopped doing my specific quarterly forecasts a few quarters ago. So I don't you know, I don't have an estimate this time. For a number of reasons, number one, just obviously stepping back from Tesla daily. I'm not following the company as closely, still extremely closely. It would be hard to compete with how it was before, still very closely. But the quarterly numbers right now, I just don't think are really all that important, whether we get 80 cents earnings per share, you know, 68 cents earnings per share, whatever the case may be, a lot of those things are going to be driven by one time items anyway. I think it's more important to look at some of the things like automotive gross margin X credits, which of course we'll talk about. Our really nice improvement there last quarter. That was one of the things that I think led to the strong positive reaction.

好的，我们来看一下。感谢大家的超级留言，真的很感谢。Lily Warbird 团队 JG。好了，我们还有几分钟就要收盘了。我切换回浏览器界面，看看收盘时的情况。我们应该能拿到财报数据。我不确定，但通常在收盘后几分钟内，一般是在五分钟之内。Eric 感谢你的超级留言。Eric 问我的预期收益是高于还是低于市场共识。我已经有几个季度没有做具体的季度预测了。所以这次我没有估计。原因有很多，首先，我从 Tesla 日报稍微退一步，不再像以前那么紧密地跟踪公司，虽然还是非常紧密的。像以前那样高密度会比较困难，虽然现在还是密切跟踪。但目前的季度数字我觉得没那么重要了，无论我们得到的是每股收益 80 美分，还是 68 美分，不管怎样，很多都会受到一次性项目的影响。我觉得更重要的是关注一些指标，比如汽车除信贷外的毛利率，当然我们会讨论。上个季度在这方面的改进非常不错，我觉得这是导致积极反应的原因之一。

Cost per goods sold, average cost of goods sold per vehicle was down about $1,700 from the prior quarter last quarter. So that was really great to see. And I think gave the market confidence that Tesla can continue to have pricing power and hopefully continue to grow volumes. And hopefully we, you know, with the Model Y refresh, hopefully Tesla through the design process is built in ways to continue to drive that average cost of goods vehicle, average cost of goods sold per vehicle down throughout this year as well. Obviously, that's not going to happen immediately. They'll have to get ramped up back to volume production, and that'll probably cause a hit not in Q4, but in future quarters, you know, Q1, Q2, until Tesla gets ramped back up.

商品销售成本，每辆车的平均销售成本比上一季度下降了大约1700美元。这是一个非常好的迹象。我认为这增强了市场对特斯拉定价能力的信心，并希望特斯拉可以继续增加销量。希望随着Model Y的更新，特斯拉在设计过程中能够找到方法，在今年进一步降低每辆车的平均销售成本。当然，这不会立刻实现。他们需要重新提升到批量生产，这可能会对未来的季度（如第一季度和第二季度）产生影响，而不是第四季度，直到特斯拉再次提升产能。

It did seem like a lot of people on, on X or, you know, some of the analysts, more detail, and all this forecast that I've seen have been a little bit lower than this. So I'd, I'd suppose like the whisper number is probably a little bit lower than the 77 cents. But, you know, for me, like I was beginning to say, not, not too important. Other parts of the earnings report, I think are going to be more interesting. And right now, you know, no surprise, really the big focus for everyone should be progress of FSD. I posted this a few quarters ago. My thoughts there have not changed. I don't really care if Tesla's delivering 495,000 or 510,000 vehicles. It's, you know, a marginal difference. What really matters right now is the, the pace of progress and the, and the actual progress for FSD. I think there's been a lot of that. And if that can continue this year, as Tesla talked about on the previous calls, I think they saw 100 to 1000 times improvement in the safety critical disengagement rate on FSD throughout the course of 2024. And they expect that rate of progress to continue through 2025. If that's the case, no, I don't care what those quarters earnings are. So maybe a bit of a, bit of a cop out of answer there, but FSD is definitely the most important during this period of time. Secondarily to that, Tesla's talked about new products. Obviously, we've saw the refresh now. We've seen the refresh now with the Model Y. But my understanding is that there are additional products that we should see throughout the course of this year. So that's more of an earnings call topic. Most likely, maybe they talk a little bit about it in the shareholder deck, but something to keep an eye on there too.

这段话的大意是，目前很多人在社交媒体平台或一些分析师的预测中给出的数字比实际值稍低。我猜测预期的数字可能会比77美分稍低。但对我来说，这并不太重要。我认为财报的其他部分会更有趣。现在，大家的关注点应该是自动驾驶（FSD）的进展。我几季度前就发表过观点，我的看法没有改变。我不在乎特斯拉交付49.5万还是51万辆车辆，这只是个微小的差别。真正重要的是FSD的进展速度和实际进展。我认为在过去的一年里在FSD方面有很多进步，如果这种进步能在今年继续下去，像特斯拉在之前的电话会议上提到的那样，2024年他们在FSD的安全关键解除率上看到100到1000倍的改善，预计这种进展会持续到2025年。如果是这样，那么我并不在意每季度的财报。也许这回答有点避重就轻，但在这段时间里，FSD无疑是最重要的。其次，特斯拉提到了一些新产品。显然，我们已经看到了Model Y的更新。根据我的理解，今年我们还将看到一些新产品，这些更多是财报会议的话题。也许他们会在股东报告中稍微提及，说不定也值得关注一下。

All right, I did have more to talk about where we're getting into market clothes here. So let's switch back. Let's just see if anything's coming out. Sorry for the commotion outside. As you guys probably remember, I'm sure you can hear that. Nothing too big in after hours movement yet. We're just about a minute after market close at the moment. So I wouldn't expect the report to be out. But I've got the page queued up here. Sometimes the refreshing doesn't work. I can empty my cash. But we'll see. I've got this. What I expect to be the hyperlink loaded up as well, the key three earnings reports, and then we can just check on X here and see if anything's going on. Sometimes we never know what we're going to see here, obviously. But sometimes I can give us a little bit of a hint too. So most of the times it seems like we get our first hint from the some sort of significant movement after hours as algorithms react to whatever earnings per share number or revenue number or whatever other number that they're filtering out from the earnings report when it gets released, automatically really reacting to those things.

好的，我本来还有更多话题要讨论，不过现在我们要进入市场收盘阶段了。让我们切换回来看一下是否有任何新消息发布。不好意思，外面的动静有点吵，可能你们都听到了。现在盘后市场的波动还不大，目前刚刚过了市场收盘一分钟，所以我不指望报告现在就出来。不过我已经把页面预先加载好了。有时候刷新功能不太好用，我可以清空缓存，不过我们拭目以待。我也把预期的超链接加载好了，这是第三季度的收益报告，我们可以检查一下X公司，看有没有新情况。显然，有时候我们不知道会看到什么，但有些时候也可以给我们一些小提示。大多数情况下，算法会根据每股收益、收入等从收益报告中过滤出来的数字做出反应，因此我们通常会从盘后市场的某些重要波动中首次得到线索。

All right. See another couple other super chats coming in here. Thank you for those guys. Appreciate that. Harry, appreciate that. I do think about it right now. The quarterly pace is good for me, but I do see the comments that are urging more frequency. Always appreciate the feedback. So if that's something that people really want, it is helpful to tell me. Otherwise, I'll assume not. And Jeff, thank you. Two seconds talking about the hate for Musk and if you think things will affect, if that will affect things going forward. Yeah, so it's obviously a very political time. It's probably not the best time to get into this conversation when we're expecting the earnings report. Just in a couple of minutes here, it's obviously that's a little bit more of a lengthy conversation. I'll try to remember that, whether it's at the end of this episode or the end of earnings, I'm sure this will come up again. You know, I don't want to get too deep into politics, but obviously it's relevant to what's going on with Tesla, what's going on with the stock price and things like that. So definitely a fair topic to discuss.

好的。我看到又收到一些超级聊天消息。感谢大家，特别是Harry，谢谢你。我现在觉得季度的频率对我来说合适，但我也看到大家希望更频繁的评论。很感谢这些反馈。如果大家真的有这个需求，请告诉我，不然我就默认不是大家的意愿。还有，Jeff，谢谢你。关于对马斯克的厌恶，以及这是否会影响未来的问题，我认为这是一个非常政治化的时期。现在可能不是讨论这个话题的最佳时机，因为我们正在等待财报的发布。几分钟后就会发布，这显然是一个更长的对话。我会尽量记住这个问题，无论是在这一集的结尾还是财报结束时，我相信这话题会再次出现。我不想深入讨论政治，但显然这和特斯拉有关，也和股价等密切相关，因此是个值得讨论的话题。

All right, a little bit of movement here. Let's see if we've got anything doesn't seem to be anything yet. Still not a ton of movement. Let me try to get caught back up here in the chat, because sometimes you guys spot it before I do. Looks like we're kind of back to flat after hours. John, thank you. Appreciate that. Guicaholic. Thank you. Lyle, thank you. Most interested in power and semi topics. Tesla energy's been doing great. I know that's pretty obvious, but exciting to see. I'm curious on the profit. Profit margin this quarter. Last quarter was very strong. And we had even better delivery. What's that? See if that's real. Sometimes Google after hours just has those false spikes. I don't know if that's like option stuff or just errors. Okay, let's see.

好的，这里稍微有点动静。看看有没有什么变化，似乎还没有太多动静。现在让我回到聊天记录中，因为有时候你们比我先发现变化。看起来盘后交易大概又回到了持平状态。John，谢谢你。Guicaholic，谢谢你。Lyle，谢谢你。我对电力和半导体领域特别感兴趣。特斯拉能源最近表现不错，我知道这是显而易见的，但仍然令人兴奋。我对本季度的利润感到好奇。上个季度的利润率很高，而且交付情况更好。那是什么？看看这是否真实。有时候谷歌的盘后数据会出现虚假的波动。我不知道这是不是与期权有关或只是错误。好了，让我们看看。

All right, so it's out. We just got this refresh here that that link worked. As you can see market reacting initially a little bit negative, not too strong of a reaction yet, but we'll just take a quick look at some of the lower level numbers towards the bottom of the income statement. You can see earnings per share, 73 cents per share. So that's a little bit lower than analyst consensus. Not too far off from a lot of other estimates I saw, though. Not too far off of analyst consensus either. So it doesn't seem too crazy, but obviously depends still what's going on elsewhere. Looks like automotive revenues right off the bat. It seems like those are quite a bit lower than what was expected. I think 21.1 billion was the expectation from analysts. So that's probably driving a lot of this. But that could mean that we've got a better gross margin number, which as I'm seeing looks like no, but potentially. Yeah, interesting. I'm surprised that's as close as it is to consensus with some of these other numbers being lower like gap gross margin looks a little bit lower. Operating margin looks a little bit lower than expectations. And automotive revenue as well. So still coming relatively close. Obviously, we'll have to sort through exactly what's going on as we go through the report. I do want to read through it because again, the numbers are important, but there's probably other things that are more interesting or equally interesting to us. Right now it looks like after hours down about 4% or so. So the negative reaction continues off the bat here. I'm going to close this. Well, I'll leave this Q3 report open, but hopefully I don't get mixed up here.

好的，所以结果出来了。我们刚刚更新了这个链接，它有效。你可以看到市场最初反应有点负面，但反应不算太强烈。我们快速看看收益表底部的一些较低层次的数据。每股收益是73美分，比分析师的普遍预期略低。不过，与我看到的其他很多估计相差不大。也不算太离谱，但显然还要看其他情况如何。看起来汽车收入一开始比预期低了不少。我记得分析师的预期是211亿美元，所以这可能是主要的影响因素。但这可能意味着毛利率会更高，不过看上去好像没有，但也有可能。确实有意思，我很惊讶这些数字和预期相差不大，尽管其他一些数字较低，比如GAAP毛利率和营业利润率看起来比预期低，汽车收入也是如此。不过整体还是相对接近。显然，我们需要在阅读报告时具体了解情况。我想仔细阅读，因为虽然数字很重要，但可能还有同样甚至更值得关注的事情。目前看起来在盘后交易中股价下跌了大约4%左右，所以负面反应仍在持续。我要先关闭这个，但我会把第三季度报告留着，希望不会搞混。

All right, so let's take a look at some of the numbers here, the summary and the highlights that Tesla's put together. So 7.1 billion gap operating income in 2024 1.6 billion in Q4. Same on the net income line, but 2.3 billion in Q4, including 0.6 billion market to market gain on digital assets. So shoot, I meant to talk about that before the accounting rules for Bitcoin have changed. Usually in all the past reports that we talked about, it would be the situation where the accounting for Bitcoin would have to happen at the lowest price that Bitcoin had ever been at. And you'd have to market down to that. They changed that rule, so now you can actually reflect what it is currently at. And it looks like that led to a big markup here, which is about 6-10 of a billion, $600 million. That seems to be what's driving this earnings per share number closer to expectations. Otherwise, it does look like across the board, the numbers are probably quite a bit lower. It's tough to say if the analysts had that in their forecast, I would guess probably not, or maybe not 100% because maybe some analysts include it, maybe some don't. And that's what makes looking kind of like consensus or average numbers really tricky, because you never know exactly how people are going to factor in some of those things. But that's definitely a positive contributor to the earnings, and something that doesn't really have any material impact on the business. It's just the market to market. So there's no actually nothing to do with the core Tesla business, nothing to do with go forward, just only to do with how you expect Bitcoin to perform going forward. So something that should probably be factored out and definitely driving closer to consensus expectations as a part of that, which then means if you remove that, the numbers will look more negative.

好的，我们来看看一些数据，特斯拉提供的总结和亮点。2024年的运营收入是71亿美元，其中第四季度为16亿美元。同样在净收入方面，第四季度达到了23亿美元，其中包括6亿美元的数字资产市场增值收益。原本我想先讲一下这个的，其实比特币的会计规则已经改变了。过去我们讨论过的所有报告中，比特币的会计处理都是基于其历史最低价，现在这个规则被改变了，可以反映当前的实际价格。看起来这导致了一次大的增值，约为6亿美元。这使得每股收益的数字更接近平预期。否则，从整体上看，各项数据可能要低一些。很难说分析师们是否在预测中考虑了这一点，我猜大概没有，或者不是所有人都考虑了，因为有些分析师可能包含了，有些可能没有。这让查看共识或平均数字变得困难，因为你不知道人们如何处理这些因素。但这确实对利润有正面贡献，这不对特斯拉核心业务有任何实质影响，只是市场增值。这与特斯拉核心业务、未来发展无关，仅与对比特币未来表现的预期有关。所以这部分应该被剔除掉，但确实使数字更接近平预期。因此，如果去掉这一部分，数字会显得更加负面。

Okay, so 8.4 billion non-Gapnet income in 2024, 2.6 billion in Q4, cash operating cash flow of about 15 billion throughout the year, 4.8 billion in Q4, really nice free cash flow. Of course, production was lower than deliveries. So it kind of makes sense on that line, but 3.6 billion throughout the year, 2 billion in the fourth quarter, and a seven and a half billion dollar increase in cash and investments in 2024 to about 36 and a half billion dollars. Operations Tesla increased AI training compute by over 400% in 2024. Love to see that. And over 3 billion miles driven cumulatively on FSD supervised as of January, and completed construction of mega factory in Shanghai. So that's nice. We are starting to the point where a lay threat facility is close to at full production rate. So we're going to need mega factory Shanghai to start contributing to that production growth to continue to see the growth that we've seen on the energy storage deployment line.

好的，那么2024年的非Gapnet收入为84亿美元，第四季度为26亿美元，全年现金运营现金流约为150亿美元，第四季度为48亿美元，现金流非常不错。当然，生产量低于交付量，这也说得过去，但全年的自由现金流为36亿美元，第四季度为20亿美元，2024年现金和投资增加了75亿美元，总额约为365亿美元。运营方面，特斯拉在2024年将AI训练计算能力提高了400%以上，这值得期待。而且截至一月，全自动驾驶监督下累计行驶超过30亿英里，上海的超级工厂也已经建成，这令人欣喜。我们正在达到一个关键点，即Lay设施接近满负荷生产率。所以我们需要上海的超级工厂开始为产量增长做出贡献，以便继续看到我们在能源存储部署线上的增长。

Alright, for the summary, Tesla said Q4 was a record quarter for both vehicle deliveries and energy storage deployments. We expect Model Y to once again be the best selling vehicle of any kind globally for the full year 2024. And we've made it even better with a new Model Y now launched in all markets in 2024. We made significant investments in infrastructure that will spur the next wave of growth for the company, including vehicle manufacturing capabilities for new models, AI training compute, and energy storage manufacturing capacity. Affordability remains top of mind for customers and we continue to review every aspect of our cost of goods sold per vehicle to alleviate this concern. And Q4 costs of goods per vehicle reach its lowest level ever at less than $35,000. We'll calculate that specifically later driven largely by raw material cost improvement, helping us to partially offset our investment in compelling financing and lease options. The energy business achieved another record in Q4 with its highest ever girls profit generation. Construction of mega factory Shanghai was completed in December

好的，总结一下，特斯拉表示第四季度在车辆交付和能源储存部署方面都创下了记录。我们预计2024年全年，Model Y将再次成为全球销量最好的车型。而且我们已经推出了改进版的Model Y，2024年在所有市场上线。我们在基础设施方面进行了重大投资，这将推动公司下一波的增长，包括新车型的车辆制造能力、人工智能训练计算能力和能源储存制造能力。 客户最关心的仍然是价格可负担性，为此我们持续审查每辆车的销售成本，以减轻这一顾虑。第四季度的每辆车商品成本达到历史新低，低于35,000美元。具体计算将在后期完成，这一成果主要得益于原材料成本的改善，也帮助我们部分抵消了在吸引人的融资和租赁方案上的投资。 在能源业务方面，第四季度也创下了新的记录，利润达到历史最高。位于上海的超级工厂建设已于12月完成。

and would begin ramping this quarter. Powerwall deployments achieved another record quarter as we continue to ramp powerwall three production and launch in additional markets. 2025 will be a seminal year in Tesla's history as FSD supervised continues to rapidly improve with the aim of ultimately exceeding human levels of safety. This will eventually unlock unsupervised FSD for our customers and the robots taxi business, which we expect to begin launching later this year in parts of the US. We also continue to work on launching FSD supervised in Europe and China in 2025.

翻译如下： 计划将在这个季度开始逐步扩大生产。Powerwall（电池墙）的部署在这个季度创下了新纪录，因为我们继续扩大Powerwall 3的生产并向更多市场推出产品。2025年将成为特斯拉历史上具有里程碑意义的一年，因为FSD（全自动驾驶）在监督下的性能会迅速提升，目标是最终超过人类的安全水平。这将让我们的客户能够使用无需监督的FSD，并开启自动驾驶出租车业务，我们预计将在今年晚些时候在美国部分地区开始推出。我们还在继续努力计划于2025年在欧洲和中国推出带监督的FSD。

Alright, so I think a lot of things that we've heard Tesla talk quite a bit about. We talked about the new model Y before this. They do talk about the next wave of growth, including vehicle manufacturing capabilities for new models. I don't know if I'd call it a red flag, sorry, if I'm covering that. But it does, it is a, to me, a change in the language versus what Tesla had said in Q3. So if we kind of go back to that, it talks about preparations remain underway for our offering of new vehicles, including more affordable models, which we will begin launching in the first half of 2025. Hopefully, Tesla will talk about this on the earnings call. Hopefully, it's just a change in the language as we head into a new year and not really anything to do with the timeline. But vehicle manufacturing capabilities for new models is different than beginning launching affordable new models in the first half of 2025. Those are pretty stark contrast. So could mean a delay on those things. Hopefully, we'll get a little bit more information on that during the earnings call. But initially, definitely an item that I would have some questions on.

好的，我认为我们听过特斯拉谈论很多事情。我们之前讨论过新的Model Y。他们确实谈到了下一波增长，包括新车型的车辆制造能力。我不知道该不该称之为危险信号，但对我来说，这与特斯拉在第三季度所说的话相比，语言上确实有些变化。如果我们回过头来看，他们说正在为推出新车型做准备，包括更实惠的车型，并计划在2025年上半年开始上市。希望特斯拉能在财报电话会上谈到这一点。希望这只是随新年到来的语言改变，而不是真正影响到时间表。但"新车型的车辆制造能力"和"在2025年上半年开始推出更实惠的新车型"确实差别很大。这可能意味着这些事情会有延迟。希望我们能在财报电话会上得到更多的信息，但最初来说，这确实是我会产生一些疑问的地方。

Energy high, silver, gross profit, and an energy generation in the fourth quarter. That's fantastic. We'll see what the margin rate was. No surprise with the 11 gigawatt hours of deliveries that we would see record profit in terms of dollars. Shanghai talked about that, nice to see power wall as well. Obviously, Megapack, probably the large driver in that energy deployment bucket now, but still nice to see power wall setting records as well. And then FSD, you know, kind of reiterating what we have heard from Tesla before. Again, this is probably the most important thing. Nice to hear Tesla talk about increasing the training compute by over 400% in in 2024. But of course, something that we knew about there. So again, I think probably most of the numbers here, including average selling price and, you know, maybe operating margins coming in below expectations. We'll see how much of this was regulatory credit revenue. If that's a low number, that can help explain things. See if we can find that somewhere Tesla sometimes moves these things around. So we'll keep it out for that. Let's see. See if we can find it here.

能源高企、白银、毛利和第四季度的能源产量都很出色。我们会看看利润率是多少。在交付了11吉瓦时的情况下，我们看到创纪录的盈利并不意外。上海方面谈到了这一点，很高兴看到Powerwall（家庭储能墙）也取得了好成绩。显然，Megapack（大规模储能系统）现在可能是能量部署领域的主要驱动力，但看到Powerwall也创下纪录仍然是件好事。然后是FSD（全自动驾驶），你知道，这只是重申了我们从特斯拉那里听到过的话。这可能是最重要的消息。很高兴听到特斯拉谈到2024年将训练计算能力提高400%以上。当然，对于这一点我们已经有了解。所以，我认为这儿大多数数据，包括平均售价以及可能低于预期的运营利润率，都是可以接受的。我们会看看这里面有多少是来自监管信用收入。如果这个数字很低，那可能有助于解释情况。看看我们能否找到一些相关信息，特斯拉有时会对这些数据进行调整。我们会对此保持关注。让我们看看能否在这里找到一些信息。

Alright, so $692 million of automotive regulatory credit revenue this quarter, a little bit lower than both of the last two quarters still quite a bit higher than last year's Q4, which was $43 million. If I had to guess, my guess is that's probably somewhere around what analyst expectations would have been on that regulatory credit revenue line. So still significant, not something that I would say, you know, if this had been a couple hundred million dollars, that would be much bigger of an explanation of revenue coming in below what analysts expected. And yes, those are just analyst expectations. It doesn't, that's not the end all be all of assessing the business. But at the end of the day, the stock price is also based on expectations, and those are informed by analyst expectations in both directions. So still important to consider. But let's continue to go through for some of the numbers.

好的，这个季度的汽车监管积分收入为6.92亿美元，比前两个季度稍微低一些，但仍比去年第四季度的4300万美元高出不少。如果我要猜测，我认为这大概与分析师对监管积分收入线的预期相符。所以，这依然是一个重要的数字。如果这个收入是几亿美元的话，那将更能解释收入低于分析师预期的原因。当然，这些只是分析师的预期，并不是评估业务的全部标准。但归根结底，股价也是基于预期的，这些预期也受到分析师看法的影响。因此，这仍然是需要考虑的重要因素。但我们继续来看一下其他数字。

Obviously, we'll take a closer look at that when we get back into Excel here in a minute, but still plenty for us to go through in the report. Just real quick on cost of goods sold, they did say that that declined below $35,000. So that means that we're at least a couple hundred dollars per unit less in the fourth quarter. Some of that can be attributed to volume. You have those costs amortized over more vehicles when you have higher delivery numbers. But still, we'll take a look at, you know, how much progress specifically was made there. So the financial summary, revenue increased 2% over year Q4, and improved from growth and energy generation and storage and services and other growth and vehicle deliveries, higher regulatory credit revenue. Again, this is a year over year look, so down a quarter over quarter, but up year over year, reduced vehicle average selling price, excluding foreign exchange impact due to pricing, attractive financing options and mix.

显然，我们稍后会在Excel中更详细地查看这一点，但报告中还有很多内容需要我们处理。关于销售成本，值得一提的是，他们表示已经降到了低于35,000美元。这意味着在第四季度，每台设备的成本至少减少了几百美元。这部分可以归因于成交量的增加。当交付数量增加时，成本会分摊到更多的车辆上。尽管如此，我们还是要具体看看在这方面取得了多大进展。 财务摘要显示，第四季度的收入同比增长了2%，这得益于能源生成、存储和服务的增长、以及其他增长和车辆交付的增加，监管积分收入也更高。这是一个同比的观察，所以虽然环比有所下降，但同比是增长的。车辆平均售价有所降低，这不包括由于定价、吸引人的融资选项和产品组合调整带来的外汇影响。

Profitability, operating income decreased 23% year over year to 1.4 or 1.6 billion in Q4, resulting in a 6.2% operating margin. Year over year, operating income was primarily impacted by the following items, reduced ASP, increased operating expenses driven by AI and other R&D projects. Again, we'll take a close look at that later on. Growth and energy, so offset by growth in energy, services and other, lower cost per vehicle, including lower raw material costs, partially offset by lower fixed cost absorption from production decrease year over year, and higher regulatory credit revenue. And then cash, quarter in cash, cash equivalents, as we said, about 36.5 billion, sequential increase of 2.9 billion, primarily the result of positive free cash flow, 2 billion in the fourth quarter. So here we can see production, deliveries, we already knew those numbers.

第四季度，盈利能力和营业收入同比减少23%，降至14亿或16亿美元，导致营业利润率为6.2%。同比来看，营业收入主要受到以下因素的影响：平均销售价格（ASP）下降，人工智能和其他研发项目推动的运营费用增加。我们稍后将对此进行详细分析。在能源、服务和其他领域的增长部分抵消了这些影响，每单位车辆成本降低，包括原材料成本下降，这部分抵消了由于生产减少而导致的固定成本吸收减少及监管信贷收入的增加。至于现金流，本季度末的现金及现金等价物约为365亿美元，环比增加29亿美元，这主要得益于第四季度20亿美元的正自由现金流。生产和交付的数据我们已经知晓。

12 days of supply at the end of the year in terms of inventory. Nice to see that be a relatively lower number for Tesla versus the last few quarters. It's not the lowest we've ever seen it used to be single days. That was probably an unhealthy low position for inventory. This, I think is great if anything, it's probably on the low side, but with Tesla converting over to the new Model Y, it definitely makes sense for that to be the case. Heading into 2025.

年末库存可维持12天供应。看到这个数字相比特斯拉过去几个季度来说相对较低，这确实令人欣慰。尽管这不是我们见过的最低库存水平，以前曾经只有几天的库存，那时候可能过于不健康。这个数字目前来看已经很好了，可能还是偏低，但考虑到特斯拉正在转换到新款Model Y，这种情况是有道理的。展望2025年。

Storage, we've talked about that. But obviously a fantastic number there with 11 gigawatt hours deployed in the fourth quarter. And then you can continue to see growth in Tesla locations. Looks like the mobile service fleet actually declined a little bit, which is somewhat unusual, but pretty slow growth, obviously, that we've been seeing throughout the year. So not terribly surprising, at least on that line. And then despite some of the criticisms and, you know, the drama with the supercharging team, still seeing continued healthy growth in supercharging stations and connectors, both quarter over quarter and year over year. Here are the year numbers.

储能方面，我们已经谈过了，但第四季度部署了11吉瓦时的惊人数字。与此同时，特斯拉的地点数量也在持续增长。看来移动服务车队的规模有些下降，这有点不寻常，不过，也显然是因为我们全年都看到了比较缓慢的增长，所以这并不算特别令人惊讶。在超级充电团队方面，尽管存在一些批评和纷扰，但超级充电站和充电接头的数量仍然在健康增长，无论是与上个季度相比还是与去年相比，都是如此。这里是年度数据。

We won't spend too much time on that. I guess just one, you know, really nice item to note. We already talked about deliveries being slightly down year over year. Production down 4% deliveries down 1%. But we can see here, energy storage, obviously one of the most successful parts of Tesla throughout 2024. That was up 114% in terms of storage deployed year over year. So nice to see that. All right, so vehicle capacity. Let's just take a quick look at this chart and see if there's any changes there from the third quarter chart, which is right here. I'm guessing probably not.

我们不会花太多时间在这个上面。我想指出一个很不错的点。我们已经谈到了交付量比去年有所下降。生产下降了4%，交付下降了1%。但我们可以看到，显然，2024年特斯拉最成功的部分之一是能源存储，在这一领域的部署量同比增长了114%。这真是好消息。好了，我们来快速看一下这个图表，看看与第三季度的图表相比有没有变化，我猜可能没有。

Yeah, so the... Yeah, nothing, at least my nothing changed there, except for, I think, next gen platform now is actually listed as, as cybercab, as being in development in Texas, rather than just various and next gen platform. Roadster still in development. So someday, hopefully. Alright, continuing here, vehicle capacity. Preparations are underway across our existing factories for the launch of new products in 2025, including more affordable models. All right, so we talked about that before. That is much more specific than the summary page. However, it does say in 2025, not necessarily in the first half of 2025. Maybe you could assume that the first half of 2025 portion of that was the new Model Y. There's debate about whether these, you know, new models that Tesla's been referring to consider the refresh Model Y as one of those or not.

好的，所以……嗯，没什么，至少我的状况没有改变，只是我认为现在下一代平台实际上被列为在德克萨斯开发的网络出租车，而不仅仅是各种下一代平台。Roadster仍在开发中，所以有一天，希望能推出。好了，继续说下去，关于车辆产能的问题。我们现有工厂正在为2025年推出新产品进行准备，包括更实惠的车型。好吧，之前我们谈过这个。这比摘要页面更加具体。然而，它确实提到2025年，但并不一定是2025年上半年。也许可以假设2025年上半年部分是新版Model Y。关于特斯拉提到的新车型是否包括更新版的Model Y，仍然存在争论。

Now we can clearly tell that although the new Model Y has been launched, there is still going to be launch of new products in 2025, including more affordable models. So that takes away some of that, you know, potential gray area there. But it does also look like that's probably going to happen a little bit later in the year than maybe was expected by some based on some of the language that had been used in the Q three earnings report that we looked at before. So I'm glad that they reiterated that. I'm glad that the 2025 timeline is reiterated. We haven't seen any of these new products as far as we know.

现在我们可以清楚地看到，尽管新的Model Y已经推出，但在2025年仍会有新产品发布，包括更实惠的车型。这消除了某种潜在的不确定性。不过，看起来这些产品的发布可能会比一些人根据以前我们查看的第三季度财报中使用的措辞所预期的稍微晚一点。所以，我很高兴他们重申了这一点，我很高兴他们重申了2025年的时间表。据我们所知，我们还没有看到这些新产品。

So not terribly surprising that that's not going to happen sometime in the next four or five months, potentially, you know, that doesn't rule that out. But that would be my read on it from just these couple of data points. All right, so in the US, California, Nevada, and Texas, semi factory construction continued in the fourth quarter and recently completed roof and wall enclosure of the main building. First truck builds are scheduled to start by the end of 2025 with ramp beginning in early 2026. Preparation is underway for cybercab lines at Gigafactory, Texas, with volume production planned in 2026. So nice to hear about the semi progress. Nice to hear about cybercab. I don't think anything new on the timelines on either of those items at the at the moment.

所以，在接下来的四五个月里，这件事不会发生也不太令人惊讶。当然，这不能排除它的可能性，但根据这几个数据点，这是我的看法。好吧，在美国，加利福尼亚、内华达和德克萨斯的半导体工厂建设在第四季度继续进行，并且最近完成了主建筑的屋顶和墙壁封闭工作。预计首批卡车将在2025年底开始组装，并将在2026年初开始量产。在德克萨斯的超级工厂，正在为生产Cybercab做准备，计划在2026年实现批量生产。很高兴听到关于半导体进展的消息，也很高兴听到关于Cybercab的消息。现在关于这两个项目的时间表似乎没有什么新的消息。

Still on us given its unique functionality, including power share stainless steel exterior enhanced durability and bio weapon defense mode, we deployed a fleet of cyber trucks equipped with Starlink in the Los Angeles area to help first responders and those impacted by the fires get access to electricity and Wi-Fi. We expect cyber trucks to be eligible for the IRA consumer tax credit, helping to improve affordability and access for even more customers. I think that's been talked about so not not anything new there.

由于其独特的功能，包括共享电源的不锈钢外壳、增强的耐用性和生物武器防御模式，我们在洛杉矶地区部署了一支配备Starlink的Cybertruck车队，以帮助急救人员和受火灾影响的人们获得电力和Wi-Fi。我们预计Cybertruck将有资格获得《通胀削减法案》的消费者税收抵免，这将有助于改善可负担性，并使更多客户能够使用。我认为这已经被讨论过了，所以这不是什么新鲜事。

In Asia Pacific in Q4, we achieved record deliveries in China as Model Y became the best selling vehicle for the full year. Tesla also became the fastest growing brand in South Korea and we launched vehicle sales in the Philippines. And in Europe in 2024 Model Y was the best selling vehicle of any type in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the Netherlands. And we expect Model Y to have the second best selling vehicle to have been the second best selling vehicle of any type in Europe. Tesla was the most sold brand in Norway for the fourth year in a row with Model Y and Model 3 the best selling and second best selling cars of any type in 2024.

在亚太地区的第四季度，我们在中国创下了交付记录，Model Y 成为全年最畅销的车型。特斯拉还成为韩国增长最快的品牌，并在菲律宾启动了车辆销售。在欧洲，2024年，Model Y 是丹麦、挪威、瑞典、瑞士和荷兰各种类型中销量最好的车型。我们预计 Model Y 将成为欧洲第二畅销的车型。特斯拉连续四年成为挪威销量最多的品牌，其中 Model Y 和 Model 3 在2024年分别是各种类型中排名第一和第二的畅销车。

So obviously some individual successes there in some countries in Europe. I think overall it was probably a pretty tough year for Tesla in Europe relative to you know some of the other markets you can kind of see the market share here. Obviously a little bit of a dip there in Europe probably more significant than the small dip that we saw in the US. And then interestingly in the probably the most competitive electric vehicle market in China Tesla seemed to slightly grow share throughout the year in 2024.

显然，在欧洲的一些国家，特斯拉取得了一些个人的成功。然而，我认为整体来说，2024年特斯拉在欧洲的表现相对其他市场可能还是比较艰难的。从市场份额来看，欧洲市场出现了一些下滑，可能比美国市场的小幅下滑更为显著。然而有趣的是，在中国这个可能是最具竞争力的电动车市场，特斯拉似乎在这一年中稍微增长了市场份额。

Alright technology so AI software and hardware. We'll just take a quick look at the charts here first. You can see the miles driven continue to increase Tesla noting that they're now above 3 billion cumulative miles on FSD in January. So this does cut off a little bit before that at your end just under the 3 billion mark. But you can see some pretty significant progress of just maybe under a billion maybe three quarters of a billion miles there in the fourth quarter. I do want to share some of my thoughts on FSD and my new vehicle and stuff. So we'll talk about that a little bit after the earnings report stuff.

好的，关于AI技术的软件和硬件。我们先快速看看图表。你可以看到，行驶里程继续增长。特斯拉指出，他们在1月份的FSD上累计行驶里程已经超过30亿英里。所以在去年年底时还差一点达到30亿。不过你可以看到，第四季度增加了大约7.5亿到10亿英里的行驶里程。这是一个相当显著的进展。我也想分享一下对全自动驾驶（FSD）以及我的新车的一些看法。等我们讨论完财报后，我们再聊聊这个话题。

Alright in Q4 we completed the development or the deployment rather of Cortex of roughly 50,000 H100 training cluster at Gigafactory Texas. Cortex helped us enable version 13 of FSD supervised which boasts major improvements in safety and comfort thanks to 4.2 times increase in data, higher resolution video inputs, two times reduction in photon to control latency and redesign controller among other enhancements. FSD supervised can now start from park and perform unpark reverse and park capabilities in Q4 Tesla vehicles using autopilot technologies drove 5.94 million miles between accidents the best Q4 ever compared to the US average of 0.7 million miles.

好的，在第四季度，我们完成了在德克萨斯超级工厂对Cortex的开发或部署，大概有50,000个H100培训集群。Cortex帮助我们实现了FSD监督版的第13个版本，该版本在安全性和舒适性方面大幅提升，得益于数据增加了4.2倍、更高分辨率的视频输入、光子到控制的延迟减少了一半，以及重新设计的控制器等其他改进。FSD监督版现在可以从停车场开始，实现倒车和停车功能。在第四季度，使用自动驾驶技术的特斯拉车辆在事故间行驶了594万英里，创下了最佳第四季度记录，而美国的平均水平为70万英里。

Progress and Optimus hardware and software continued in Q4 including the latest generation hand robust locomotion and training on additional tasks ahead of planned pilot production in 2025. There have been a lot of rumors about this about Tesla maybe targeting like 600 or 600 parts parts for 600 bots per day I believe was what it was maybe it was per week. I'd have to go back and just look at that quick but who knows if those reports are accurate but what we know is accurate is that Tesla is definitely planning to have some sort of significant more you know so I'd call it significant scale of optimists out and about being produced hopefully being put to good work in Tesla's factories you know throughout the course of this year and next year so again I think this is happening sooner than people think this this year could definitely be sort of an eye opening moment for for people in that regard.

在第四季度，Optimus 机器人和相关硬件、软件的研发继续推进，包括最新一代的灵活动作能力和针对额外任务的培训，以便在2025年计划的小规模试生产之前做好准备。关于特斯拉每天可能生产600个机器人，或者每周生产600个部件的传闻有很多。虽然我们不确定这些传闻的准确性，但可以肯定的是，特斯拉确实计划在今年和明年大规模推进Optimus机器人的生产，并希望能在特斯拉的工厂中得到实际应用。由此可见，这一进展可能比人们预期的要快，今年可能对人们来说是一个启发性的时刻。

All right vehicle and other software the holiday release included Apple Watch support customers can pair their watch as a key to unlock and lock their vehicle without ever pressing a button just like the phone key with a premium connectivity subscription dash cam and sentry mode clips can be viewed and downloaded directly from the Tesla mobile app an animated three hour precipitation forecast can be viewed on the map and Sirius XM is now available for our full lineup with launch of the native app for model 3 model Y and cyber truck.

好的，这次节日发布的所有车辆和其他软件更新包括了对Apple Watch的支持。用户可以将他们的Apple Watch与汽车配对，将其作为钥匙来解锁和锁车，无需按下任何按钮，就像手机钥匙一样。通过高级连接订阅，行车记录仪和哨兵模式的视频片段可以直接从特斯拉手机应用查看和下载。地图上现在可以查看动画的三小时降水预报，并且Sirius XM现在可以通过原生应用在我们的全系列车型中使用，包括Model 3、Model Y和Cybertruck。

For battery powertrain and manufacturing we processed our first spodumene lithium containing concentrate through the front end of the lithium refinery only 18 months after groundbreaking much faster than any plant we know we know of outside of Asia. The intermediate material was on spec and we are on track to commission the plans in 2025. Our in-house 4680 cell production hit a rate exceeding two and a half thousand cyber trucks per week. I don't know what the last milestone update that Tesla gave us on that but we could go back and just kind of see how that 4680 ramp is progressing so nice to get a little bit of a data point on that and nice to hear more about the lithium refinery obviously we've seen you know the last year and a half Tesla working on that since groundbreaking.

在电池动力系统和制造方面，我们在破土动工仅仅18个月后，就通过锂精炼厂的前端处理了首批含锂的锂辉石精矿，比我们所知的亚洲以外的任何工厂都要快得多。中间材料符合规格，我们计划在2025年完成工厂的调试。我们的内部4680电池生产达到了每周超过2500辆网络卡车的产量。关于特斯拉在这方面的最新进展我不是很清楚，但我们可以回顾一下，看看4680电池的提升进展到什么程度了。这次能得到这样一个数据点很不错，也很高兴听到更多关于锂精炼厂的消息，显然我们看到在过去一年半，特斯拉自破土动工以来一直在这方面努力。

Nice to see the first part of production of that coming out. I don't think that's something that's going to be a huge needle mover for us when Tesla started this. Lithium market was in a very very very very different position than it is right now. So at the time this was much more higher ROI project than it is currently with the market. However this is a fantastic thing for Tesla to have to de-risk and there still should be economic benefits once Tesla's able to get that up to scale at least I would presume but they will be a little bit lower in this current market. Now who knows how the lithium market will change over time? I would expect that it will change to some degree so if and when that does happen again Tesla would be much better positioned with their supply chain just from having you know a little bit of expertise in this area if and when that time comes.

很高兴看到这个项目的首批产品问世。我认为这个项目不会对我们产生巨大影响，因为当特斯拉开始这一项目时，锂市场的情况与现在非常不同。当时，这项目的投资回报率高得多。然而，对于特斯拉来说，这是一个很好的举措，可以降低风险，即使在当前的市场条件下，当能够将项目规模扩大时，仍然会有一定的经济收益，不过这些收益会有所减少。未来锂市场会如何变化，谁也说不准。我预计它会有一定程度的变化，所以如果这种变化再次发生，特斯拉会凭借在这一领域的经验，在供应链方面处于更有利的地位。

All right so here is the I believe this is the safety report that Tesla just a different format of the safety report that Tesla generally publishes. This is the best way to look at it in my opinion. When you look at how Tesla has historically published it it's just been individual quarters you know you see the entire year and it looks like there's a lot of up and down stuff. My take as I've talked about before is that the volatility quarter to quarter has a lot to do with just general accident rates seasonally. You know you would presume that certainly in areas that are getting snow that those accident rates probably increase pretty significantly in the winter months. So I think the best way to has always been to look at this on a year-over-year basis which is exactly how Tesla is displaying it here and you can see just fantastic smooth progress here in terms of the sort of accident rates when autopilot or FSD is engaged relative to you know both Tesla vehicles that are not using autopilot and just the general average. We've talked many times about what this data is good for what it's not necessarily good for. One of the things that I think it's great for though is just comparing that progress over time because. this is you know this red line this is comparing against itself there's no you know worrying about like oh the US fleet on average is older vehicles and those older vehicles don't have as good a safety system so they're more likely to get inclusions or break something and then cause a collision. All that stuff is fair when you're comparing red line to gray line but red line versus itself that's all just the same data. So it shows that Tesla's autopilot system is you know undeniably getting better as time goes by almost twice as good as it was five years ago. So exciting to see that that continued you know very very nice progress in terms of safety. This matters you know this is saving lives most likely so it's a pretty big deal.

好的，这是特斯拉发布的一份安全报告，只不过格式有点不同。我认为这是查看特斯拉报告的最佳方式。过去，特斯拉一般是按季度发布的，你会看到全年数据有很多波动。我曾说过，这种季度间的波动很多是因为季节性因素导致的一般事故率波动。在下雪的地方，冬季的事故率可能会显著增加。因此，我认为最好还是按年比较，这正是特斯拉在这里展示的方式。你可以看到，当启用自动驾驶或全自动驾驶功能时，特斯拉在事故率方面取得了非常出色的平稳进展，比不使用自动驾驶的特斯拉车辆以及普通车辆的平均水平都要好。 我们多次讨论过这些数据的用处以及局限。但我认为它的一个重要用途是，可以用于比较不同时期的进展。这条红线是在和自身比较，不用担心比如美国的车辆平均来说较旧，这些老旧车辆的安全系统不够完备，所以更容易发生事故或碰撞等问题。当比较红线和灰线时，所有这些因素都很公平，但红线和它自身比较时，数据是一样的。显示了特斯拉的自动驾驶系统无疑在不断改进，如今的表现几乎是五年前的两倍。这种持续的进步在安全方面非常令人振奋。这关乎到人命，可能正在挽救生命，这确实意义重大。

All right other highlights energy continued grow rapidly in 2024 as we expand capacity for both megapack and power wall to meet demand services and other a collection of businesses that support new vehicle sales achieved its third year in a row of profitability in 2024. Okay so energy services and other gross profit so this is a combination of both of those buckets. You can see the fourth quarter was a little bit less we'll take a closer look at that when we get into the excel review and then energy storage deployments you can see that quarter of a quarter so just a graph of those numbers that we've already talked about. The energy business achieved record deployments for both power wall and megapack at a combined 11 gigawatt hours resulting in record gross profit in the fourth quarter.

好的，其他亮点：2024年，随着我们扩大Megapack和Powerwall的产能以满足需求，能源行业继续快速增长。服务和其他业务，这些支持新车销售的业务，已经连续第三年在2024年实现盈利。好的，所以能源、服务和其他业务的毛利润是这些部分的综合。你可以看到第四季度的毛利润略少，我们会在Excel评审中详细看看这些数字。能源存储的部署情况你可以看到逐季度的数据，所以这只是我们之前谈到的数字的图示。能源业务在第四季度实现了创纪录的部署，Powerwall和Megapack的总部署量达到11吉瓦时，创下了毛利润的新高。

Material and other costs continue to come down in Q4 at the lay threat mega fact lay threat mega factory both power wall and megapack continue to be supply constrained as we open new markets and demand for energy storage products continues to grow. With construction completed Shanghai mega factory will begin ramping in the first quarter. Excuse me services and other in Q4 we added over 3000 supercharger stalls to the network and delivered at 1.4 terawatt hours of energy. We unveiled our version 4 cabinet which supports 400 volts to 1000 volt vehicle architectures charges up to 500 kilowatts for passenger vehicles and 1.2 megawatts for Tesla semi and has cutting edge power electronics with three times the power density. We launched battery heating at superchargers a feature that gets vehicles with with the mire and phosphate battery packs back on the road up to four times faster. Tesla actually did some pretty cool things with the battery technology and that. Some like counterintuitive stuff a little bit so pretty cool if you read into the technical details of that. Just wanted to highlight that. Anyway Tesla also continued to welcome more OEMs to the North American supercharger network including the first NACS native vehicles. Overall in 2024 we launched superchargers in three new countries added over 10,000 new supercharger stalls and grew the network by 19% year over year for a total of 65,000 plus superchargers worldwide. We delivered 5.2 terawatt hours offsetting 5.5 billion kilograms of direct CO2 emissions and 2.4 billion liters of gasoline. I know we all love those statistics. Usually we talk about those things with the impact reports but nice to see Tesla sharing some of that in the earnings report here as well.

材料和其他成本在第四季度持续下降。在Lay Threat Mega工厂，Powerwall和Megapack继续受到供应限制，因为我们在开拓新市场的同时，对能源存储产品的需求持续增长。随着建设完成，上海的Mega工厂将在第一季度开始扩大产能。第四季度，我们在网络中新增了3000多个超级充电桩，并提供了1.4太瓦时的能源。我们推出了第四代充电柜，它支持400伏到1000伏的车辆架构，为乘用车提供高达500千瓦的充电功率，并为Tesla Semi卡车提供高达1.2兆瓦的充电功率，配备了三倍功率密度的尖端电力电子设备。我们在超级充电站推出了电池加热功能，使配备磷酸铁锂电池的车辆能够最快提高四倍的速度重返道路。Tesla在电池技术方面确实取得了一些很酷的进展，包括一些看似不合常理的创新，如果你深入研究技术细节，会发现这些真的很赞。我只是想强调这一点。此外，Tesla继续欢迎更多原创设备制造商（OEM）加入北美超级充电网络，包括第一批原生NACS车辆。总体来看，2024年我们在三个新国家推出了超级充电站，新增了超过10,000个超级充电桩，使网络同比增长19%，全球超级充电桩总数超过65,000个。我们提供了5.2太瓦时的电量，抵消了55亿公斤的直接二氧化碳排放和24亿升汽油。我知道我们都喜欢这些统计数据。通常我们会在影响报告中谈到这些内容，不过很高兴在收益报告中也能看到Tesla分享了一些这样的数据。

All right so let's see we've got the outlook section here so for volume looks like the advancement with the advancements in vehicle autonomy and introduction of new products we expect the vehicle business to return to growth in 2025. The rate of growth will depend on a variety of factors including the rate of acceleration of our autonomy efforts production ramp at our factories and the broader macroeconomic environment.

好的，让我们看看这里的展望部分。对于销量来说，随着车辆自动化技术的进步和新产品的推出，我们预计汽车业务将在2025年恢复增长。增长的速度将取决于多种因素，包括我们在自动化方面的进展速度、工厂的生产扩张以及更广泛的宏观经济环境。

We expect energy storage deployments to grow at least 50% year over year in 2025. So nice to see that. That's going to be a significant number again in gigawatt hours. Off the 30 31 I think it was this year so expecting 45 to 50 gigawatt hours it sounds like in 2025. So let me just make sure I'm reading this getting all of this as I read through this.

我们预计到2025年，能源储存的部署将每年增长至少50%。看到这样的趋势真是令人欣慰。这将是一个相当大的数字，再次达到以吉瓦时计算。今年的数字大概是30到31吉瓦时，所以预计2025年将达到45到50吉瓦时。我需要确认一下，以确保我对这些信息的理解没有错误。

So vehicle business to return to growth. Tesla had mentioned maybe 20-25% before I believe no specific number here in terms of vehicle growth but at least some growth which will depend on a lot of different things. So not terribly surprising Tesla's usually pretty you know vague with guidance so that continues here. I wouldn't be shocked if we hear something a little bit more specific from Elon on the earnings call. Sometimes that happens but we'll see.

汽车业务将恢复增长。特斯拉之前提到增长可能在20-25%左右，我认为这次并没有给出具体数字，但至少会有一些增长，这将取决于许多不同的因素。因此，特斯拉的指导意见通常比较模糊，这次也不例外。如果我们在财报电话会议上听到埃隆·马斯克给出更多具体信息，我也不会感到惊讶。有时候会发生这种情况，但我们拭目以待。

So fishing cash no surprise there kind of the same statement the Tesla has had over on that line for a long time. For profit while we continue to execute on innovations to reduce the cost of manufacturing and operations over time we expect our hardware related profits to be accompanied by an acceleration of AI software and fleet based profits.

所以捕鱼现金，没有什么惊喜，这和特斯拉长期以来的说法差不多。为了盈利，我们会继续在创新方面努力，以逐步降低制造和运营成本。随着时间的推移，我们预计硬件相关的利润将伴随着人工智能软件和车队运营利润的加速增长。

And then for product plans for new vehicles including more affordable vehicles remain on track to start production in the first half of 2025. Fantastic. All right I don't know why the language change. I think that should have been stated very very early on in the report but it does look like those remain on track for sort of production in the first half of 2025. So fantastic. I take back all my previous comments. We should probably always just come down and read this product outlook section first note for next time.

然后，新车型的产品计划，包括更多价格实惠的车型，仍然按计划在2025年上半年开始生产。太好了。我不知道为什么语言会发生变化。我认为这一点应该在报告的最开始就提到，但看起来这些计划仍然按计划在2025年上半年开始生产。太好了。我收回我之前所有的评论。我们以后应该先来看这个产品前景的部分，作为下次的注意事项。

These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle lineup. Nothing new there we've heard that before. This approach will result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times. This should help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to 3 million vehicles enabling more than 60 percent growth over 2024 production before investing in new manufacturing lines.

这些车辆将结合下一代平台以及现有平台的特点，并在我们当前车型的生产线上制造。这没什么新鲜的，我们以前也听说过。这种方法将导致成本降低的幅度低于预期，但可以让我们在不确定时期以更高的资本效率谨慎地增加车辆产量。这应该有助于我们充分利用当前接近300万辆的最大产能，在不需要投资新的生产线之前，实现超过2024年产量的60%以上增长。

Our purpose built Robotaxi product cybercab will continue to pursue a revolutionary unbox manufacturing strategy and is scheduled for volume production starting in 2026. Okay so enabling more than 60 percent growth over 2024 production. That's fantastic. We've heard Tesla talk about that 3 million before. If we're talking about production capacity remember that production is not always going to match production capacity. Look no further than this year. Certainly Tesla's production capacity is higher than the roughly 1.8 million vehicles that they produced but you're going to have downside. We're going to have product refreshes like we saw in 2024 with Highland like we're seeing now in early 2025 with the Model Y. There's probably going to be some potentially some downtime associated with the start of the production in these other more affordable vehicles. So just remember when you see that 60 percent number don't just put that on the delivery line and call it good for your forecast. There's many other things to consider before sort of locking something like that in.

我们的专用自动驾驶出租车产品Cybercab将继续追求革命性的“无盒”制造策略，计划于2026年开始大规模生产。这将有助于在2024年的基础上实现超过60%的增长。太棒了！我们知道特斯拉之前提到过300万辆的目标。如果我们讨论产能，请记住产量并不总是与产能相符。今年就是一个例子。特斯拉的产能确实超过了他们大约180万辆的实际产量，但也会有一些下行因素。比如2024年的Highland升级和2025年初Model Y的更新。这些更新可能会导致一些停工时间，特别是在开生产线时。这可能会对其他更加经济实惠的车型的生产启动产生影响。所以，当你看到60%的增长数字时，不要直接将其视为交付预测的最终数据。在确认这种增长之前，还有许多其他因素需要考虑。

Alright so here we can see it looks like the cost is probably around like 34,000 or 800 or so is my guess. Again we'll calculate that a little bit later. But nice to see that continued decline in average cost of goods sold. I don't think anyone expected as big of a jump downward as we saw last quarter that was a very significant one. Probably one of the most significant that we've ever seen for Tesla in sort of like a quote unquote normal quarter. You know early on with the Model 3 you're going to see stark differences but in a more normal quarter this is that was a huge jump. Nice to see still a decline here even if not quite to the degree that we saw last quarter.

好的，这里我们可以看到成本可能大约是34,000或800左右，但这是我的猜测。稍后我们会再详细计算。不过，很高兴看到平均销售成本持续下降。我认为没有人预料到我们上个季度看到的那样大幅度的下降，那是一个非常显著的变化。对于特斯拉来说，在一个所谓的“正常”季度中，这可能是我们见过的最大幅度的下降之一。你知道，早期的Model 3会有显著差异，但在一个比较正常的季度中，这次下降幅度很大。即使这次的下降幅度没有上个季度那么大，看到还有下跌也不错。

Alright cyber truck that's an interesting chart. We'll come back to that. We'll just get through the rest of the photos here. New Model Y. I'm sure everyone's seen seen that. We can talk a little bit more about that if people are interested. Looks like this is a comparison just in terms of new Model Y versus current Model Y. Obviously both are still available in the United States. I don't think that's the case for all markets outside of maybe inventory vehicles but you can see a recap here. If you've been following this on X you've probably seen all the differences between the old and the new but I think it's going to be a pretty major upgrade for the vehicle and again happy to talk more about my Model 3 here in a minute. Semi factory. Nice to see this coming along. Zengler's doing a great job of tracking that. If you guys are following him on X General Assembly for mega factory Shanghai. So I'm sure we're all excited about that. That's going to be interesting to see how quickly that ramps up given what we saw with a mega factory Shanghai back in the day.

好的，赛博[卡车](Cybertruck)，这是个有趣的图表。我们稍后会回到这个话题。我们现在先看完其他的照片。新的Model Y来了。我相信大家都已经见过。如果有人感兴趣，我们可以稍后再详细讨论一下这个。看起来这张图是在比较新款和现款Model Y。显然，这两款车型在美国市场仍然可供选择。我认为在其他市场，可能只有库存车辆可选。这里展示了一个概要。如果你在平台X上关注过这一话题，可能已经看到过旧款和新款之间的所有不同之处。我觉得这将是该车的一个重大升级。稍后我也乐意多谈谈我的Model 3。 接下来是关于半挂卡车工厂的发展，很高兴看到这在进展中。Zengler在这一方面做得非常出色，如果你在平台X上关注他的话。关于上海的总装大厂。我相信大家对此感到兴奋，看看这次能多快地提升生产速度，回想起以前上海大厂的情况，确实很值得期待。

Spodgermin day. That's funny. So this is the Tesla with the MT on Spodgermin day. That's a cool name for a day. Looks like they got cybercap out there too. All right here's Cortex the 50,000 GPU training cluster in Texas. Cool to see that. Very similar to what we've seen from the X AI. Colossus as well. So there's more for Cortex and then we get into our financial reports here and again we'll come back to the financials here in a second. Let's go back to that cyber truck chart. Just to see. I'm assuming this is just a recap of things that we've talked about in terms of some of the things that Tesla's done with the vehicle that they'll use in future vehicles. Which I think is a really good point. I think we're still in a period where we're not really sure exactly how successful the cyber truck is going to be.

翻译成中文： Spodgermin日。这很有趣。这辆是配有MT的特斯拉，今天是Spodgermin日。这个日子的名字挺酷的。看起来他们还有cybercap在那里。好了，这里是Cortex，一个位于德克萨斯州的拥有50,000个GPU的训练集群。能看到这个很不错。与X AI的Colossus非常相似。关于Cortex还有更多内容，然后我们进入我们的财务报告，稍后会再次讨论财务部分。我们再回到那个cyber truck的图表。看看。我猜这应该是我们之前讨论的一些事情的回顾，关于特斯拉在这辆车上所做的一些事情，这些将会用于未来的车辆。我认为这是一个非常好的观点。我觉得我们仍处于一个还不确定cyber truck会多成功的阶段。

A lot of that depends on how costs come down which we didn't see anything in here about cyber truck being profitable. Doesn't mean it wasn't but since Tess already talked about that last quarter there may not be a need to mention it. However I do think that was driven by that FSD recognition. That was a very big part of the profitability on that vehicle last quarter. So we'd like to see that reiterated in some way shape or form at some point but really I think the success overall the vehicle is going to depend on how quickly those costs are coming down and how Tesla can use that in terms of the average selling price in the vehicle. So we'll see how it goes. We'll see how it continues to develop.

很多内容取决于成本下降的速度，我们在这里没有看到关于Cybertruck盈利的信息。这并不意味着它没有盈利，只是因为特斯拉在上个季度已经谈过这个话题，所以可能没有必要再提。但我确实认为盈利是受到FSD收益确认的推动。FSD在上个季度是车辆盈利的一个非常重要部分。所以我们希望以某种方式在某个时候看到这点被重申。但我认为，整体上来说，车辆的成功将取决于成本下降的速度以及特斯拉如何利用降低的成本来影响车辆的平均售价。我们会继续关注，看看发展如何。

I don't know that we need to go through all of this stuff. We can just see some of the major things. I'm sure we've talked about all of these things before 48 volt electric architecture 800 volt battery system ethernet communication architecture. All these things are going to reduce wiring make communications more efficient with the vehicle. Probably pretty marginal power savings but all things that are going to improve efficiency and improve part cost vehicle weight all those sort of things. By directional charging obviously talked about that. Ride and comfort. So a lot of this stuff outside of steer by wire rear wheel steering of course not available on other vehicles at the moment but Tesla again checking the box that these will be available in future vehicles. It's pretty cool. I wonder how rear wheel steering would work on like a model three or model y size vehicle if that would be any significant improvement in maneuverability might be kind of fun. But yeah hopefully you know sure we'll see these sort of things in cyber cab. I don't know if we should expect to see them in these you know certainly more affordable vehicles. Maybe some of them like the 48 volt architecture we'll love to see that. So Tesla can start to you know build that supply chain up and things like that but we'll have to see.

我觉得我们不需要把所有的这些东西都过一遍。我们可以只看一些主要的方面。我相信我们之前已经讨论过这些事情了，比如48伏电气架构、800伏电池系统、以太网通信架构。这些都会减少布线，让车辆的通信更高效。虽然节能效果可能有限，但这些都会提高效率和降低零件成本、车辆重量等等。当然双向充电也是我们讨论过的。关于驾驶舒适性方面，现在除了线控转向和后轮转向这些功能，目前其他车辆还没有提供，但特斯拉已经表明这些功能将在未来的车型中出现。真的很酷。我很好奇后轮转向在像Model 3或Model Y这样大小的车辆上会如何工作，如果这会显著提高操控性能可能会挺有趣。但愿我们在Cybertruck上会见到这些功能。我不确定在更加经济实惠的车型上是否能看到这些功能。也许像48伏架构这样的技术我们会乐于见到，这样特斯拉可以开始建立供应链等等，但我们还要拭目以待。

Alright so we are through the deck. We'll hop through the financials and then we can go through just some more general thoughts here. I do want to just check the stock price here quick. I'm sure it's probably still oh I guess not. What happened? Interesting. I'm very surprised that that's the case. Again the financials here don't look quite strong. Don't look very strong relative to expectations. I think a lot of that's driven by that Bitcoin mark to market. So interesting. I mean I'm glad to see that. Like gonna refresh again just to make sure. Maybe it's because of the you know more affordable vehicles. Maybe I don't know maybe Elon tweeted something. If he did let me know in the super chat so I can see that but interesting. Maybe it's the case of everyone like me not seeing the outlook section for the more affordable vehicles. Tesla reiterating that happening in the first half of this year. I do think that's you know throughout this entire report. As I talked about FSD you know we didn't expect to learn a whole lot about FSD in the shareholder letter obviously. So I think that's one of the most important things and then in terms of just how the business looks this year. Those more affordable vehicles are now that we have the refresh model why. Those are probably the biggest question marks. Probably the biggest opportunity for excitement with the stock as we look at the rest of this year. Could be people picking up on that 60% growth number. Again that's production capacity. That needs to be level set against both actual production then and then also deliveries. So those are you know very different numbers but certainly 60% growth and production capacity even setting aside that context is still a very exciting proposition. And again some fundamental progress here it's nice to see the average cost of goods sold continue to come down. Maybe some concern that I don't know last quarter was for some reason a one-time spike in that that line item spiked downward in that line item. So maybe people are excited to see that consistency and continue to climb there. But yeah that's that's a pretty surprising reaction to me but I'll take it.

好的，我们看完了这些材料。接下来我们了解一下财务情况，然后再谈一些更一般的看法。我想快速检查一下股价。我敢肯定它可能还保持不变，哦，好像不是这样。发生了什么事？有趣。我很惊讶会这样。财务状况看起来不太强劲，比预期要弱。我认为这主要是因为比特币的市场价值变化造成的。这很有趣，我很高兴看到这一点。我会再刷新一下以确保，也许是因为更实惠的车型。可能是Elon发布了什么推文，如果他这样做了，请在超级聊天中告诉我，以便我看到。有趣的，也许是因为大家和我一样没有看到有关更实惠车型展望部分的信息。特斯拉重申这些车将在今年上半年上市。我确实认为在整个报告中这是很重要的信息。正如我谈到的FSD（全自动驾驶），我们并不指望在股东信中了解到太多FSD的信息。所以我认为这是最重要的事情之一，然后就公司今年的表现来看，这些更实惠的车型现在我们有了更新的Model Y。这些可能是最大的不确定因素，也是今年下半年股市最激动人心的机会。可能是因为人们注意到60%的增长数字。这是生产能力，需要与实际生产和交付进行对比。这些是不同的数字，但即便不考虑这些情况，60%的生产能力增长仍然是一个非常令人激动的前景。而且，一些基本的进展也很不错，很高兴看到平均销货成本继续下降。也许有人担心上个季度这个项目的数据突然激增，因此人们可能对这种持续性和稳定增长感到兴奋。这对我来说是一个相当令人惊讶的反应，但我接受这一结果。

Alright so I'm just going to just quickly check the chat here and see if there's something else that happened here that I may have missed. And then we'll hop over to excel here in a second. For those super chats that I need to get to I appreciate those I'll try to get to those once we once we're done with looking at some of the financials here. People are saying it happened when I said I'd take it back. That's funny. I doubt that's the case but I appreciate the thought. That's funny. All right cool. Interesting. Well let's look at excel. As I say I recorded this is obviously the most exciting part of the episode. Watching me put numbers in a spreadsheet. I told myself I wasn't going to make that joke again this quarter but it's just just right there. All right so automotive sales again the analyst expectation was $21.2 billion. I think we ended up like 19.8. I'm just going to go through and fill these out and then we'll talk a little bit more about them as we go so just bear with me here for a minute. And then again I've got a few other things of time permitting if not we'll do it after the earnings call just to remind her that the link for that is in the description. We'll listen to that together as well. That's coming up in about 50 minutes from now.

好的，我现在快速查看一下聊天记录，看看是否有我错过的内容。接下来，我们马上转到Excel。对于那些需要我回复的超级聊天，我非常感谢，我会在我们查看一下财务数据之后尽量进行回复。有人说，这件事发生在我说过我要收回时，那很有趣。我怀疑真是这样，但感谢大家的想法。真有趣。好吧，很酷。令人感兴趣。好的，让我们看看Excel。我录制了这段，这显然是这一集最让人兴奋的部分，观看我在电子表格里输入数字。我曾告诉自己这个季度再不讲这样的玩笑，但实在太好用了。好吧，关于汽车销售，分析师的预期是212亿美元，我想我们最终大约是198亿。我会继续填写这些数据，然后在过程中再多聊一点，所以请大家稍等一会。还有几件事如果时间允许我会在之后处理，如果不行，我们就在收益电话会之后进行，提醒一下，电话会的链接在描述里。大概50分钟后我们会一起收听。

Alright so total automotive revenue was yeah 19.8. So 19. My microphone is also slightly in the way here so typing might be a bit slow. All right 19. 7. 9. 8. So you can see analyst expectations were about 7% higher. This is a decline year over year of about 8% from the 21.5 billion last year. Even though we do have higher regulatory credits. So you know a lot of softness and average selling price as Tesla talked a little bit about in the report. We'll calculate that number here in a second.

好的，汽车总收入是19.8。 我的麦克风有点挡着，所以打字可能会慢一点。总之，19.7.9.8。可以看到分析师的预期高出约7%。相比去年215亿，这下降了约8%，尽管我们的监管积分有所增加。正如特斯拉在报告中提到的，平均售价有些疲软。我们稍后会计算这个数字。

Energy generation that was 306.1. So definitely an interesting line here. You can see just a small improvement from Q2 where we had just over 3 billion as well. This is about you know 45 million dollars or so more even though we did have 1.6 gigawatt hours additional energy storage here. I have to do the math on what the you know average selling price would be here. But I think these lines in general probably the best way to look at them is sort of a rolling six month average because you have deferred revenue. You have projects being started and then recognized later on. So it's not quite as straightforward. Maybe is what we see with the automotive line all the time. So whether we're looking at deployments whether we're looking at revenue whether we're looking at profit. I think rolling six month is probably the best way to look at the energy lines. Nevertheless another strong revenue number there for energy and then services and other is 2848. So up 31 percent year over year on that line. I didn't mention it for energy but that was up 113 percent year over year. Let's get that regulatory credit number in there as well. So that was 692 million. We already talked about that but we'll see how that flows through down here when we get into cost.

能源产量达到了306.1，确实是一个有趣的数据。你可以看到与第二季度相比仅有小幅提升，当时我们的产量略高于30亿。这次大约增加了4500万美元，尽管我们增加了1.6吉瓦小时的额外储能。我需要计算一下这次的平均销售价格是多少。但我认为，通常来说，最好是将这些数据按滚动六个月的平均值来看待，因为你会遇到延期收入的情况、有些项目启动后会在较晚时候确认收入。因此这就不像汽车业务那样简单明了。所以无论是看部署情况、收入还是利润，我认为用滚动六个月的方式看能源数据是最好的方法。尽管如此，能源业务的收入数字依然很强劲，而服务和其他业务则为2848，同比增长31%。我之前没有提到能源业务，它同比增长了113%。我们也需要看看那份监管信贷的数字，那是6.92亿。我们之前已经讨论过这个数字，但是当我们进入成本分析时再看看它如何具体影响。

So for that. All right so total automotive cost of revenues was 16.5 10. Energy costs 2289. Um services and other costs. 2729. All right so there we can see and that total gross profit line that matches great Okay now we can see here. Like we said a little bit soft in some of these numbers. Um this is definitely the softest 13.6 percent automotive gross margin X credits.

好的，总汽车收入成本为16.5，能源成本为2289，服务和其他成本为2729。可以看到，总毛利线非常匹配。不过我们可以注意到，某些数字有些疲软。其中，汽车毛利率（不含补贴）是13.6%，这确实是最疲软的部分。

This is one of the lines that I you know I always say is one of the most important. Again I think this was one of the reasons for the strong reaction of the Q3 earnings report was that really strong surprise on that gross margin X credit line for automotive. Uh at 17 percent that was up significantly from a declining trend that we had seen for the last couple of quarters. Uh but now you know much much softer line here in the fourth quarter even though Tesla did have higher delivery volume uh by about you know 30 30 2000 vehicles or so and that generally helps with costs uh but of course you know looks like Tesla on the average selling price line probably faced a bit of a hit there pretty significant hit so um you also combine that with lower energy gross margins even though Tesla had quite about higher uh energy deployments and then services and other I'm guessing a lot of that maybe we'll get more detail in the 10q but generally a lot of the profit here is driven from the used car business so not terribly surprising to see some softness in the automotive gross margin line also being reflected on the services and other line as um you know when there's pricing pressure on the new new car uh business that's probably also apparent in the used car vehicle businesses or the used car vehicle the used vehicle business as well um at any rate 16.3 total gross margin obviously uh 240 basis points below what analyst consensus expectations were again doesn't mean anything horrible just what the expectations were from a group of analysts following the company um still if given the choice obviously would prefer to have the numbers above those expectations than below um but looks like you know there's at least some uh some things in here that the market's reacting positively to despite following short on some of those analyst expectations.

这是我总是说的一句非常重要的话之一。再说一次，我认为这是第三季度财报引起强烈反应的原因之一，因为汽车毛利率扣除信贷这一项的强劲表现给了一个很大的惊喜。啊，从17%来看，比前几个季度的下降趋势有了显著的增长。不过你知道，现在第四季度这里的表现要温和得多，尽管特斯拉的交付量确实增加了大约3.2万辆，一般来说这会有助于降低成本。但是显然，特斯拉在平均售价上可能遭受了一些较显著的冲击。另外，即便特斯拉的能源部署增长明显，但能源毛利率却下降，你把这些与服务和其他业务结合起来。我猜测可能会在10-Q报告中看到更多细节，但总体来说，很多利润是由二手车业务驱动的。因此，看到汽车毛利率有所下降在服务和其他业务上反映出来也并不令人意外，因为当新车业务有定价压力时，这很可能也会在二手车业务上显现出来。总之，总毛利率为16.3%，明显比分析师预期低240个基点。这并不意味着有什么可怕的事情，只是分析师们对公司的预期而已。尽管如此，如果可以选择的话，显然还是希望这些数字能高于预期而不是低于预期。不过，尽管在某些分析师预期上没有达到，但是市场对其中一些因素的反应依然是积极的。

Alright rnd sgna let's take a look at those so rnd was 1276 so I think that's probably an all time high for rnd um could unhide these columns and look but my guess is that's probably an all time high certainly at least uh a high over the last year or so not anything crazy but maybe you know 100 million dollars 120 million dollars higher than what we had seen in the last few quarters sgna let's see that was 1313 so also a little bit higher there but not too crazy versus previous quarters tessell did say that some of the rnd spend related to ai so you know not surprising that that's um an increased area of importance for tessell that's continued to be the case whether we're talking rnd or capex um I would guess that if you had visibility into percentage of those buckets that was ai related I would guess that that percentage has pretty significantly increased over the last couple of years so if you take out ai stuff I'm sure those rnd buckets are probably going down but as I've always said no problem with tessell spending on rnd um I think tessell's proven to be a very great allocator of capital over the years um I expect that to continue to be the case all right so restructuring and other there is a seven uh million dollar cost in here or gain let's see I think that's yeah I think that's a cost yeah so uh seven million dollar cost in here maybe just a continuation of some of the restructuring costs that we'd seen in previous quarters um they did not put the bitcoin well let's see maybe that's just a line that I consolidate nope that's not hitting operating income so when we talked about that mark to mark it um I'm gonna have to see exactly where that falls I'm I'm thinking it falls somewhere below well yeah definitely falls below the operating uh income line so a little bit different than what we would have seen with the impairment before which fell above the operating margin line um which means that this is you know the 6.2 percent that we're seeing here this is more of a true number um not influenced by that bitcoin like it had previously been in in some quarters you know many quarters ago but for those of you that remember those periods uh so at any rate significantly below analyst expectations there operating income about 1.6 billion almost a billion dollars short of analyst expectations which that's why you know part of why I was surprised to see the the stock being up and I I still am wondering if I'm missing something but uh let me know I see some new super chat so I'll take a look at those um all right ebita let's take a look at that uh just an ebita 4922 so still a pretty good number there that's probably starts to include that bitcoin mark so maybe we're talking like 4.3 billion without that uh we'll just have to this this is a new accounting thing so I don't know it off the top of my head um and I think companies have some optionality it might just be like when they wanted to adopt it uh for when they're doing that stuff but uh someone will have to learn about as we as we look at these results um

好的，我们来看看这些数据。R&D费用是1276，可能是R&D的历史最高点。我可以取消隐藏那些列来查看详细数据，但我猜这应该是历史新高，至少在去年左右是最高的。这并不让人吃惊，可能比我们过去几个季度看到的高出一亿美元到1.2亿美元左右。SG&A费用是1313，也略有提高，但和之前的季度相比不算太夸张。Tessell表示，一部分R&D开支是与人工智能有关的，因此这个领域的重要性提升不意外，无论是R&D还是资本支出（CapEx）。我猜如果能看到这些开支中AI相关的比例，这个比例在过去几年中可能显著增加。所以如果不算AI的部分，那些R&D成本可能是在下降的。但我一直认为Tessell在R&D上的投资没有问题，他们在资本分配上表现得相当出色，我预计这种情况将继续下去。 再来说说重组及其他，这里有一个七百万美元的成本，我认为是成本，不是收益。可能是之前几个季度重组成本的延续。他们没有把比特币考虑进去，也许那只是我整合中的一个项目，但这没有影响到营业收入。当我们谈到市值的时候，我需要看看这具体落在哪里，应该是落在营业收入线以下的，与之前的减值略有不同，之前是落在营业利润线以上的。这意味着我们现在看到的6.2%是一个比较真实的数字，没有受到比特币的影响，不像几年前某些季度看到的情况。对于那些记得那段时期的人来说，目前的营业收入显著低于分析师的预期，大约是16亿美元，比分析师预期少了约10亿美元。这也是我对股票上涨感到惊讶的部分原因，我仍然怀疑是否遗漏了什么。 至于EBITDA，那是4922，仍然是一个相当不错的数字，这个可能开始包括了比特币的市值调整，所以也许我们在谈论的是去除比特币影响前的43亿美元。这是一个新的会计事项，我不太熟悉各公司在这个操作上是否有选择性，可能只是他们什么时候想采用的问题，但这是我们在查看这些结果时需要了解的。

Non-gap net income let's see that was 25 66 so a little bit higher but again maybe that includes the bitcoin stock base compensation I did highlight these just slightly differently and left a little comment here uh I noticed this as I was just looking at the numbers and we actually talked about it last quarter as some of my spreadsheet wasn't calculating correctly stock base compensation there's two different types of this now you'll you'll be able to see a stock base compensation number and then a stock base compensation number net tax the net tax stock base compensation number is the one that is being used in the gap earnings calculation so the difference in non-gap and gap earnings is just stock base compensation gap includes that non-gap factors it out previously this net tax bucket there was no difference in this between the the actual stock base compensation that's listed once tessa recognized in q4 last year that deferred tax recognition um for lack of a better word once that was recognized then I noticed that the next quarter they started having this net tax adjustment which actually has the effect of reducing the stock base compensation impact on gap earnings and this is a lot to follow but basically what I'm saying is that this is maybe like a hundred million dollars lower each quarter than it used to be uh that stock base compensation still exists it's just like a net of tax so uh you'll notice you can see a smaller difference between gap earnings per share and non-gap earnings per share used to be like 14 cents now it's more like 10 cents um after that happens so I don't know if that's really important to anyone but just if you're looking at any of that got confused I was temporarily confused by that so um just a clarifying point there anyway let's take a look at what that number is actually this quarter and I can just help explain it too um I'll switch back to the browser here for one second so you can see stock base compensation uh it's 579 million um and then we'll try to go forward here and then you can see the actual expense net of tax was only 249 million so an even more significant difference this quarter and that's going to again pull gap earnings per share and non-gap earnings per share closer so the 249 is what we want in terms of how the spread sheet is set up so put that there but just note that actual stock so we'll put that there but just note that actual stock base compensation is higher I don't really fully understand the accounting of that I haven't I kind of just figured this out so I need to spend more time on that but that should leave us with non-gap or gap net income of 2317 so I'm just going to check that number and we'll go back to excel here um yeah 2317 perfect so that's there let's flip back to excel um okay and then we've just got non-gap earnings per share so I think that was 0.73 so still some slight improvement quarter over quarter but again that's mostly driven by the the bitcoin thing so again you can you can see that the non-gap and gap earnings per share just because the stock base compensation net tax is so low certainly relative to both historical and to the actual stock base compensation not net of tax that that gap is narrowing over time or at least in these these few quarters

简化翻译如下： 非GAAP净收入为2566，略高一些，但可能包括了比特币的股票基础补偿。我发现了这个问题，并在上个季度讨论过，有些电子表格计算不正确。股票基础补偿有两种不同形式：一个是普通的股票基础补偿，另一个是扣除税后的股票基础补偿。在GAAP收益的计算中，使用的是扣除税后的数字。因此，非GAAP和GAAP收益的区别就在于此：GAAP包括股票基础补偿，而非GAAP则不包含。 去年第四季度，特斯拉认定了递延税款，这使得在下个季度他们开始有了税后调整，减少了GAAP收益中的股票基础补偿影响。虽然有点复杂，但每季度这个调整大约减少了一亿美元的影响。因此，现在GAAP每股收益与非GAAP每股收益之间的差距缩小了，以前是14美分，现在大约是10美分。 看看这个季度的数字：股票基础补偿为5.79亿美元，税后费用仅为2.49亿美元，这对GAAP和非GAAP每股收益的差距有显著影响。这2.49亿美元是我们需要的数值。注意，实际的股票基础补偿是更高的。 GAAP或非GAAP净收入为2317，我核对了一下，这个数字是正确的。非GAAP每股收益为0.73，与上一季度相比略有改善，这主要是由比特币因素推动的。由于股票基础补偿净税额特别低，所以GAAP和非GAAP每股收益的差距在缩小。

free cash flow was uh 2 0 3 1 so Tesla mentioned that 2 billion there we talked about I didn't have the analyst consensus on that this time um okay so I would guess that all these sort of net lines that are included below the operating margin line I think these all probably have like 600 million dollars extra essentially um just because you know you're looking at lower total gross profit you're looking at lower operating income and then somehow we get to this line and all of a sudden e-bittos up non-gap net income slightly up gap net income slightly up so that's definitely where the that 600 million dollars of bitcoin mark up is happening and I believe since Tesla seems to now be adopting that accounting method I think that that will continue just every quarter now there will be that marked market for whatever bitcoin is at I don't know if that goes off like the last price at the end of the quarter or if it's some sort of average we can look more closely at that before next quarter but um that will continue to influence these bottom line numbers

特斯拉提到，自由现金流为20.31亿美元，而我们讨论过的20亿美元，这次没有分析师的共识。因此，我推测在经营利润线以下的所有净收益项中，可能大约增加了6亿美元。这是因为你会看到总毛利润较低，营业收入较低，然后突然之间EBITDA（息税折旧摊销前利润）上升了，非公认会计原则（Non-GAAP）的净收入略有上升，GAAP（公认会计原则）净收入也略有上升。这显然是因为比特币调整带来的6亿美元的额外收入。我相信特斯拉现在似乎采用了这种会计方法，所以每个季度都会根据比特币的市价调整。我不确定这是基于季度末的最后价格还是某种平均值，我们可以在下个季度前仔细研究一下，但这将继续影响这些最终的财务数据。

uh which again will just make them even not that they're not important they are important but again some of the other stuff is more informative than just looking at the bottom number without any of the context um unfortunately in this case the context I think makes the numbers uh significantly worse for the quarter but you know it's it's still better than if they hadn't made the bitcoin investment it does help them uh obviously with bitcoin being at all time high that is real money real cash that Tesla can use but obviously it's something that's different from their their standard uh business all right so let's look at the we'll talk a little bit more about some of these numbers but let's just calculate this uh average selling price and average cost to get sold so I need auto revenue for leasing so that's 447 and then costs it's 242 and deliveries those 26962 all right so there we get our average cost to get sold of 34 700 so right around where we had speculated based off that chart um and then average selling price yeah you can see a pretty big drop there um about two grand lower average selling price this quarter then last quarter um you know we've seen that continue to decline but that seems to be one of the bigger drops that we've seen in the fourth quarter

这段话的大意是：他们强调了一些数据的重要性，尽管底线数字很重要，但有些背景信息更具有指导意义。不幸的是，在这种情况下，背景使得本季度的数字更糟糕。不过，特斯拉的比特币投资为他们提供了一些帮助，尤其是在比特币达到历史新高时，这些是真正的现金流，对特斯拉有帮助，但这与他们的核心业务不同。接下来他们计算了一下平均售价和平均成本。汽车租赁收入为447，成本为242，交付量为26962。因此，他们得到了34,700的平均销售成本，大致与图表预测的一致。然而，平均售价下跌了两千美元，与上一季度相比，降幅明显。 通过这个翻译，我们可以理解他们在评估特斯拉的财务表现时，不仅仅看到了数字本身，还结合背景信息进行了分析，而投资比特币这一非传统收入来源在当前财务环境下提供了支持。

might also explain you know part of why Tesla wasn't able to get to the 510 000 or whatever that year-over-year mark requirement would have been um they clearly took significant pricing action here um and unfortunately still weren't quite able to get to the get to that level but I think you know it's it's also a period of time where a lot of people were aware that there's probably a new model y coming uh obviously that's Tesla's biggest volume vehicle so um it's tough to be a little bit too critical on that or I guess it would be maybe unwise to be too critical of that during during a period of time like that where you know you've got probably the most significant Osborne effect happening until the actual product comes out which now Tesla's got to ramp that up and there's going to be uh that Osborne effect obviously more visible but um it's it's a factor that I wouldn't just completely write off or discount for the for the fourth quarter so anyway asp down nine percent year-over-year um average cost of goods sold down four percent year-over-year so Tesla's talked about you know this this progress on average cost of goods sold they're going to continue to make it but it's probably going to be a little bit slower now hopefully with these new more affordable products which seem to still be on track for the first half of this year which is great hopefully that can help with the average cost of goods sold here as those start to get to volume production not something I would expect to really hit us for the next few quarters but maybe as we get into the first part of next year the you know later parts of this year that'll start to be a factor

这段话可能解释了特斯拉为什么没能达到年度目标要求的51万或类似目标。他们显然在价格上采取了重大措施，但仍然没能完全达到那个水平。不过，我觉得这也是一个很多人意识到可能会有新的Model Y推出的时期。显然，Model Y是特斯拉销量最大的车型，所以在这样的时期对他们过于苛刻可能是不明智的。因为当时可能发生了最显著的奥斯本效应，直到新产品的推出。现在特斯拉必须加大生产，这种效应会更明显。不过，我认为这不是第四季度可以完全忽略或不考虑的因素。 此外，平均销售价格同比下降了9%，平均销售成本同比下降了4%。特斯拉谈到了他们在降低平均销售成本方面的进展，并计划继续努力，但可能进展会稍慢一些。不过，希望这些计划在今年上半年推出的新、更实惠的产品能够有助于降低平均销售成本，尤其是在这些产品开始批量生产后。我不指望这会在接下来的几个季度产生很大影响，但也许在今年下半年或明年初会开始成为一个影响因素。

okay so I think we kind of talk through most of these numbers we probably don't need to spend a ton of time uh going through but you know as you can intuitively understand there's uh significantly lower automotive gross margin or automotive revenue because of this average selling price decline um so you had you know deliveries up two percent year-over-year I don't have the quarter of quarter but obviously you can kind of do the math on that seven or eight percent or whatever it is um so two percent increase in deliveries year-over-year but a nine percent decline in average selling price you know obviously that's netting out then at lower automotive sales year-over-year even though you do have the benefit of the slight increase in regulatory credit sales which is even more beneficial for the gross profit here even um even with that though still down about six percent with just the pressure on on pricing uh for the for the quarter so that's that's a big deal um that being said still nice to see the cost decline and hopefully something that I'll uh continue but really now we're on to the new Model Y hopefully that can help with some of the pricing pressure that Tesla experienced um it's it took a little bit for me with the new Model Y with the design changes I was kind of like on the fence initially but still confident this would be a significant up significant upgrade I think now that we're starting to see them more in stores seeing better non-potato camera views of the the actual vehicle uh it's it's growing on me which is kind of what I expected generally that that happens with a lot of Tesla designs you know I said that a lot about the Cybertruck early on definitely something you kind of need to see in person to really get a feel for and I think the older Model Y is now already starting to look a little bit dated um even just here and you know a week or two since the since the new Model Y has been out so no offense to anyone with the new Model Y still and obviously with the older Model Y still an amazing vehicle but um I do think that overall the design changes is likely to be positive um and I think as we get more used to seeing it'll probably grow in people as well um I think the feedback so far has been relatively relatively positive but uh just kind of my perception on it um automotive profit so you know nothing too much to talk about here I think these are you know pretty pretty direct consequences of what we had talked about with average selling price and cost um so no no huge shock on any of those lines regulatory credit's probably in line energy profit it's a little bit disappointing to see the margin decline there just because we did see it spike so much last quarter anything with maybe even better deliveries um in terms of gigawatt hours deployed this quarter maybe there was a possibility that could come in not like a 33 or 35 or something like that but back more towards this 25 margin which again I think the best way to look at this is sort of like a rolling six month so um it just helps reduce all a lot of the volatility that you're going to see from quarter to quarter which is I think inherent with just how this business model is set up services and other we talked about R&D, S&A we talked about so relatively high operating expenses um Tesla in general does a phenomenal job controlling those so not something that I'm worried about I think generally in Q4 those you know might increase a little bit too I'd probably have to go back and look at the historicals to get a sense of if that's really happening but wouldn't be terribly surprising especially the SGNA line so 6.2% operating margin um then we talked about these I think receiving the benefit of the Bitcoin market market um the rest I think we'll have to wait for the 10Q to see you know what's going on with um some other factors like was there any deferred revenue this quarter um for FSD or or whatever else all right I'm going to switch back to the browser I'm going to take a couple of quick questions here and then got to wrap up just to finish up the prep for the earnings call again we'll go through that together the link for that is down in the description here uh for those that want to participate uh one second

好的，我觉得我们基本上讨论了这些数字，大概不需要花太多时间详细分析了。但是，直观上你可以理解，由于平均销售价格下降，汽车的毛利率或收入明显降低。交付量同比增长了2%，我没有季环比的数据，但你可以自己算一下，大概是7%或8%。同比增长2%的交付量，但平均销售价格下降了9%，这样一来，即使有监管积分销售的小幅增长对毛利润有帮助，汽车的年度销售额还是下降了约6%。这主要是由于价格压力的影响。 尽管如此，看成本下降还是令人欣慰的，希望这一趋势能继续发展。不过现在我们要关注新的Model Y，希望能缓解特斯拉面临的价格压力。刚看到新Model Y的设计变化时，我有些犹豫，但我相信这会是一个重大升级。最近看到更多实车展示，非劣质相机拍摄的图像后，我对它的印象愈发好转，这也是我预期的结果。特斯拉的很多设计都需要亲眼见到才能真正感受到。 旧款的Model Y现在看起来有点过时了，虽然新Model Y已经上市才一两周。虽然这无意冒犯仍使用旧Model Y的车主，这款车依然很棒。但我认为整体设计变化是积极的，相信随着更多人见到新款车，也会逐渐接受。到目前为止的反馈较为正面，这是我的看法。 关于汽车利润，基本上是平均销售价格和成本对利润的直接影响，没有太多惊讶之处。监管积分大致符合预期。而能源利润方面，有点失望看到毛利率下降，尤其是上个季度的高峰表现令人期待。这季度的千瓦时部署上，可能没有像33%或35%这样的高毛利率，回到了25%左右。我认为最佳的观察方式就是滚动六个月来看，这样能减少季度间的波动，这是这种商业模式所固有的。 我们谈了服务和其他业务的研发费用和销售与管理费用，运营费用相对较高，但特斯拉在控制这些方面做得非常出色，所以我并不担心。我觉得一般在第四季度时，可能这些费用会略增一些，但需要查看历史数据来验证。如果真的增加也不会太令人意外，特别是销售与管理费用。运营利润率为6.2%。 我们谈到获得比特币行情的好处，剩下的内容可能需要等到季报10Q，看看一些具体细节，例如本季度是否有递延收入涉及FSD或者其他业务。好了，现在我切换回浏览器，将解答几个快速提问，然后结束准备工作以迎接财报会议。有关参与财报会议的链接在描述中可以找到，稍等。

Okay let's see stock still hanging in there that's great 402 up three and a half percent so that's probably close to where we started the day out not far off uh so great I'll take it all right so I do see a number of super chats in here I'm just gonna try to get to those and I know someone had asked about like gallon and political stuff again let's do that after the earnings call uh because we are coming up on that here um all right I think I left left off on miles but um most interested in power and semi-topic so yep I think we're we're getting close on semi I know Tesla over the last quarter or so has started to roll it out to at least one new partner maybe a couple new partners for just sort of vehicle testing so great to see that um as I mentioned Zengler doing a great job of tracking the Tesla semi kind of like Joe Tagmire and others are doing at Gigatexas Zengler's doing that at uh Gig and Nevada so just keep an eye on how that's progressing but obviously quite a lot of progress in the last six months so nice to see that um and then yeah obviously in the energy business continues to do really well so I do think there's some risk with the energy business in terms of like IRA funding and stuff and how that's affecting energy gross margins so just something to keep in mind I don't know exactly how all of that um accounting wise is is working out for Tesla um but I do think that there are some some of those IRA battery credits that are even though these cells are from China I do I do still think there's at least some impact um some benefit the Tesla's getting from the IRA for energy right now so uh Citiburt tells what you've been up to yeah first principles group so that's that's the full time thing now um it's been it's been going great so um yeah uh feels like old times yeah it's it's always nice to be back it doesn't feel like a normal stream I haven't heard a fire engine yet there were a few I don't know if that came through but I've heard a few uh more than quarterly would be wonderful um no promises but if people can let me know I'm sure people want more frequency but yeah it is helpful to just have the feedback um Arash thank you appreciate that Patrick awesome thank you appreciate that uh Tesla pilot asking given the US's withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement do you think Tesla should sign on and support as other companies have uh I think it's very unlikely that Tesla would do that um based on you know Elon's current views on those types of things um that would I would find that pretty surprising now it also doesn't mean that Elon doesn't care about the environment or whatever like this it's it's more it's more a manner of how things are achieved um and I think Elon is you know generally not in favor of a heavy regulatory burden um you know he he wants clean energy to come because clean energy deserves to come not because it's forced from a regulatory perspective and I think you know what Elon has done with Tesla is been tremendous in terms of helping make that progress so I think that's kind of how how Elon approaches it everyone can have their own views on that I just I'm trying to you know put into words I think how Elon thinks about it and obviously I could be wrong but um that's you know that's my perception of it uh is Tesla solar dead it's certainly not looking great I mentioned a couple of quarters ago but we saw the uh you know the removal of the uh energy generation deployments line um yeah this used to have energy generation deployed as well and that got removed so obviously not a great sign um I think the hopefully you know I think we'd all have to see the solar roof someday be successful outside of that business I can't imagine that Tesla's probably gonna try to do too much with rooftop solar uh but you know maybe at some point if they keep the solar roof as sort of like an R&D type of situation maybe at some point they make a uh breakthrough on that maybe Optimus can help that um you know reach reach its intended vision in terms of like installation costs and things like that uh so I wouldn't say it's dead but obviously it's not looking extremely great at the moment

好的，让我们看看股票还在坚挺，这很不错。现在是402，上涨了3.5%，所以这大概和我们开盘时差不多。太好了，我很满意。 我看到这里有一些超级留言，我会尽量回复。我知道有人问过关于加仑和政治方面的事情，我们在财报电话会后再讨论，因为我们马上就要进入那个环节了。 我刚刚说到迈尔斯，但我最感兴趣的是电力和半导体话题。是的，我觉得半导体方面越来越接近目标了。我知道特斯拉在过去的一个季度左右，开始与至少一个新合作伙伴进行车辆测试，可能还有其他新伙伴，看到这个进展很高兴。 正如我提到的，Zengler在跟踪特斯拉半导体方面做得很好，就像Joe Tagmire和其他人在Gigatexas所做的那样，Zengler在Gig和内华达州也在跟踪。所以关注这一进展显得尤为重要，过去六个月进展不少，欣慰地看到这一切。 而且在能源业务方面表现良好。不过我确实认为与能源有关的业务在像IRA资金等方面存在一些风险，可能会影响到能源的毛利率。所以需要注意这一点。 我不完全清楚这些帐务对特斯拉的影响，但我认为即便这些电池来自中国，IRA电池补贴可能仍会对特斯拉产生一定的好处。 关于Citiburt，做得很棒，全职从事First Principles Group，并取得了不错的进展。感觉像回到了以前的时光，但没有听到消防车的声音。或许有人想要更高频率的直播，但反馈很重要。 Arash，谢谢，Patric也谢谢你的支持。特斯拉飞行员问，鉴于美国退出巴黎气候协议，你认为特斯拉是否应该和其他公司一样签署并支持此协议？ 我觉得特斯拉这样做的可能性很小，基于Elon目前在这类事情上的看法，我会发现如果特斯拉签署那将非常惊讶。不过这并不意味着Elon不关心环境，而是他关注事情如何达成。他一般不太倾向于沉重的法规负担。他希望清洁能源的发展可以自然而然，而不是通过法规强制推进。 特斯拉在这方面取得的进展显著，这可能就是他的思路。每个人对这件事都有自己的看法，我只是试着表达Elon可能的想法，当然可能我也会错。 关于特斯拉的太阳能业务是否结束，现在情况看起来确实不容乐观。几个月前我提过，能源生产部署这一栏被移除，这不是一个好信号。 希望有一天太阳能屋顶能在这个业务外成功发展。 我想象不到特斯拉会对屋顶太阳能做太多投入，但或许在某个时候如果他们把太阳能屋顶当成一种研发状态，或许会取得突破。不认为现在太阳能业务已死，但显然目前并未展现出非常乐观的前景。

All right scott saying tessel tweeted were also expecting to launch rebel taxi services and parts of the u.s later this year and continue to work on launching fsd um okay so that was in the earnings report but maybe just I'm guessing this was a response to like what's going on after market um that could have been a factor in terms of you know that little bit of a reversal that we saw I guess pretty significant reversal that we saw uh Derek thank you mario thank you vb thank you frank thank you tessel weekly please uh weekly that's that's probably gonna be a stretch that's probably gonna be a stretch but um sunny thank you I'm hearing the feedback though uh tessel piled again there is only a potential Osborne effect because tessel doesn't advertise most potential car buyers know nothing about them um next model y um it I don't know it seems like ever I don't know I'm a little bit confused but um I do think it's a fair point that most carbyers probably don't know a whole lot about the model y in advance of the model y being launched I think that's fair but I also think that tesla buyers are of like all car buyers in general tesla buyers are probably more likely to be informed um on that type of thing even with lack of advertising uh just because I think it leans into like more tech you know observant demographics in terms of the tesla customer base which are probably a little bit more highly informed on technological innovations and upcoming products so um I think it's a good point but I do think that tesla over indexes in terms of people that would be informed if that makes sense uh turquat mom come turquat macam thank you sorry I could probably get that right uh dark omor frequent streams thank you lunaglings thank you for the tessel monthly fun yeah maybe that's what I should do maybe I should have some sort of funding thing that gets it back now I don't want to I don't want to hold people over the head like that um pretty please go back to tesla weekly tesla quarterly tesla quarter is what we're doing now I won't take that as a vote that way though all right so um

好的，Scott 说 Tessel 发推文称，他们预计将在今年晚些时候推出 Rebel 出租车服务，覆盖美国部分地区，同时继续致力于推出全自动驾驶（FSD）功能。嗯，这些信息出现在财报中，不过我猜这可能是针对盘后市场动态的回应。这可能是导致股价大幅回弹的一个因素。Derek、Mario、VB 和 Frank，谢谢你们。Tessel 每周更新？这可能会有点难实现，但我听到了反馈意见。因为 Tessel 不做广告，所以潜在 Osborne 效应的影响很小，大多数潜在的购车者甚至对Tessel没什么了解。 关于 Model Y，在它推出前，大多数人确实可能不太了解。但我也认为，在所有购车人群中，特斯拉的买家更有可能事先了解这些信息。即使缺乏广告宣传，特斯拉的客户群体可能更关注技术动向，所以他们往往对科技创新和新产品更了解。这个观点不错，但我认为特斯拉的客户群体相比一般购车者，更容易获取这些信息。 Turquat mom、Turquat macam，谢谢你们对我的包容。Dark Omor，这个流的频率很高，感谢你们。Lunaglings 感谢 Tessel 月度支持。也许我可以设立一些资金支持，不过不想给大家太大压力。请继续关注特斯拉的周报和季报，目前我们主要是做季度更新。好的，就说这么多。

I do have to do a little bit more setup for the earnings call so probably a good place to wrap this up at um I do want to talk after the earnings call a little bit more we can talk politics I don't want to spend like a ton of time on that um but you can talk about that we can talk about mining vehicle obviously got the new model three um talk about FSD version 13 my experiences with that so I guess I'll leave that as you know I don't really do cliffhangers but just in the entrance interest of time we'll uh we'll leave that for after the earnings report but good to be back good to see everyone go at the market reaction is relatively positive so far uh from the earnings report and we'll see we'll see what they have to say on the earnings call that could completely change the trend or maybe accelerate it so we'll see you soon again the link for that is down in the description thank you

我需要再花一些时间来准备财报电话会议，所以现在可能是结束这个话题的好时机。我确实想在财报电话会议之后再聊一聊，我们可以谈下政治，虽然我不想花太多时间在这上面。你可以提一下这个话题，我们也可以谈谈矿用车辆，显然还有新的Model 3，以及谈论FSD版本13和我的一些使用体验。因此，我想先搁置这些话题，不太喜欢留悬念，但为了节省时间，我们会在财报发布后再讨论。不过很高兴回来，见到大家也很开心。市场对财报的反应目前看起来比较积极，但我们拭目以待，看看财报电话会议上他们会说些什么，这可能会完全改变趋势或加速趋势。所以很快再见，相关链接在下面的描述中，谢谢。