Charles Payne Show January 13, 2025

By the way, folks, Friday we learned that the first quarter, right, the fiscal year we're in our first quarter for the country, our deficit was $200 billion, right? So above last year, so $700 billion, we spent that much more than we took in. And this brings me to my next guess. He's been talking about the 10-year topping out at 5%. Probably that's going to happen. That puts downward pressure on the economic activity, but also the market's path to policy. He thinks it's too hawkish. So let's bring in monetary macro CEO, dot com CIO rather, Joseph Wang. Joe, it sounds like to me though, we were just talking about these interest rates. You don't think inflation is what's driving up yields right now?

顺便说一下，各位朋友，上周五我们了解到，本财政年的第一季度，也就是我们国家的第一季度，赤字达到2000亿美元，对吧？这比去年多出了7000亿美元，我们的支出大大超过收入。这让我想到下一位嘉宾。他一直在讨论10年期国债收益率达到5%的顶峰。他认为这可能会发生。这会对经济活动施加下行压力，同时也影响市场的政策路径。他觉得政策过于强硬。让我们欢迎货币宏观公司首席执行官和首席投资官约瑟夫·王。乔，在我看来，虽然我们刚才谈到了这些利率，你并不认为是通货膨胀正在推动收益率上升，对吗？

Well, I think it's a little bit, Charles, but I think the bigger part is just the path to policy like Steph mentioned. So if you look at what's happening in the markets based on the short-term interest futures, not too long ago, the market was pricing in five Fed cuts this year. Today we're just pricing in one cut. Now that comes down to three things. One is that inflation has been a little bit stickier than expected, but let's be real. It's only modestly above the Fed's target. The other point is that the market was afraid of a recession, but the economic data so far has come out surprisingly strong. So the market really isn't worried about that. And the third point is the Fed came out and told us that they don't really want to cut a lot. And so the market is taking all that into stride, pricing in fewer cuts. And so you got the 10-year surging. Now I don't really think that the 10-year can really stay here that long though. It's really clear to me that it's really having a definite impact on equity.

好吧，我觉得这有一点道理，查尔斯，但更关键的还是政策路径，就像斯蒂芬提到的那样。如果你看看市场动态，基于短期利率的期货交易，不久前市场预期美联储今年会降息五次，但现在只预测一次降息。这涉及三个方面。首先是通胀比预期更顽固，但实际上它仅仅略高于美联储的目标。第二点是市场曾担心经济衰退，但目前的经济数据表现出乎意料地强劲，所以市场并不是太担心。第三点是美联储表示他们并不急于大幅降息，市场已经消化了这些信息，因此预测的降息次数减少，这也导致10年期国债利率飙升。不过我不认为10年期国债利率能在这个位置保持太久，这对股市的影响是显而易见的。

Now I remember listening to Lenard's earnings call just last month in December, and it was a big miss and they were guiding pretty gloomily noting that the higher mortgage rates were definitely impacting their activity. But in addition to that, you see the stock market just having trouble digesting these yields. So I think this is kind of a self-correcting thing. So you go as yields approach 5% slower economic activity. And I think that will force the market to pricing of cuts again. That gets back to what economists always say, higher rates are the cure for higher rates kind of thing. I mean, to your point, hey, I want to hit this because part of this story too has been in the tariff talk.

现在我记得在上个月，即12月，我听了莱纳德（Lenard）的财报电话会议，他们的表现远低于预期，他们对未来的展望相当悲观，指出较高的抵押贷款利率确实影响了他们的活动。此外，你会看到股市在消化这些收益率时遇到了麻烦。所以我认为这是一个自我修正的过程。当收益率接近5%时，经济活动会放缓。我认为这将迫使市场再次调整降息的定价。经济学家总是说，高利率是对高利率的良药。还有一个重要方面是，关税的讨论也是影响这个故事的一部分。

You see it in FOMC minutes. You know, some are saying that's why yields are going up. You put out a pretty intriguing tweet at the beginning of the expo said in the last year, President Trump used this chart on more than one occasion. You said the market is making the same mistake of being too skeptical on Trump's plans. We're lacking a cost of significant policy changes where tariffs become a major source of revenue and a foreign policy returns as a potential tool. And you're saying they're not priced in. So talk to me about that for a moment. The idea that, you know, the tariffs are being talked about on Wall Street and Main Street as this dark cloud that's going to wreck our economy. But we can see from the chart in past history for a long time it was the majority of the revenue we took them. We know things have gotten a little more complicated, but talk to us about why the streets make a mistake.

你可以在FOMC的会议纪要中看到这一点。有人说，这就是收益率上升的原因。你在博览会开始时发了一条相当引人注目的推文，说在过去的一年里，特朗普总统多次使用这张图表。你说市场在对特朗普的计划上犯了同样的错误，过于怀疑。我们缺少评估重要政策变化成本的方法，比如关税成为主要收入来源和外交政策作为潜在工具的回归。而你认为这些都没有被计入市场价格。谈谈这个问题吧。你知道，华尔街和大街小巷都在讨论关税，认为这是将会破坏我们经济的一片乌云。但我们可以从过去的历史图表中看到，在很长一段时间里，它们是我们主要的收入来源。我们知道情况有点复杂了，但请告诉我们，为什么大家都在犯错。

Yeah. So that is by chart. The yellow highlight is mine. It was an honor to have that used by the president. So I think the street is actually a little bit too pessimistic about what this can mean. The first is that, you know, if you want to take a step back and look at tariffs as a mechanism, you know, if you look at free trade, for example, let's look at China. Now China obviously doesn't have free trade, right? They have tariffs. It's really hard for companies to sell into China. And by using that mechanism, they've able to build a very strong manufacturing economy. So in some context, tariffs can be very helpful. Now there's a lot of academic work that suggests that when you have a tremendous, tremendous trade deficit like we have in the US, having tariffs can be a good thing. It can raise employment because of course, you have more manufacturing jobs created. And so that's a and it can create more GDP because of course, we have more being produced in the US. Joe, let me know. I'm sorry, but run out of time before you go, keep going.

好的，所以这是一张图表，黄色标记是我做的。能够被总统使用是我的荣幸。我认为市场对此的反应有些过于悲观了。首先，我们可以退一步看看关税作为一种机制。比如说，如果你看自由贸易，我们来看中国，中国显然不是自由贸易，他们有关税。公司要想在中国销售产品是很困难的。通过使用这种机制，他们建立了非常强大的制造经济。所以在某些情况下，关税是非常有用的。现在有很多学术研究表明，当你像美国一样有巨大的贸易逆差时，关税可能是个好东西。它可以增加就业，因为生产制造工作增多了。当然，它也可能提高GDP，因为美国的生产增加了。乔，请告诉我。抱歉，在你继续前已经没时间了。

I want to just kind of share. I know Stephanie doesn't like the soothsang, but you did a little bit yourself. So I just want to share with the audience. Your S&P 500 target, 5500, seems a little low to me, but you're looking at the T&U yield. This is the most important thing in this conversation. Coming back down to at least four, gold at 3,000 and no recession. My friend, we got to leave it there. We'll pick up the conversation real soon. Thanks a lot, buddy. And congratulations on having a president elect user chart.

我想分享一下。我知道斯蒂芬妮不喜欢预测，但你自己也稍微做了一些预测。我想和观众分享一下。你对标普500指数的目标是5500点，这对我来说似乎有点低，但你关注的是T&U收益率。这是这次谈话中最重要的事情。收益率至少回落到4，黄金达到3000，并且没有衰退。我朋友，我们就聊到这儿。我们很快会继续这个话题。非常感谢，顺便祝贺你，总统候选人用了你的图表。