FSD v13's Craziest Highlights Yet / A New Tesla Enemy / New Tesla Semi Customer ⚡️
发布时间 2024-12-19 02:10:00 来源
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Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dylan Loomis. Quick shout out to my newest patron, Alodin. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. There were some ridiculous reports out there today like this one. Tesla could look to acquire specific brands from Western car makers to diversify and expand its offering. In light of Tesla's current struggles to renew its portfolio and focus on other segments like Robotaxes, acquisitions could be in the cards. This from Alpha Values Adrien Braisie. I hate to break it to you Adrien, but that's not going to happen. Part of the problem here, looking at Adrien's LinkedIn, he covers companies like VW, BMW, Mercedes and Stellantis really focusing on European equities. He doesn't actually cover Tesla at all, which we know from his take.
欢迎来到Electrified,我是你的主持人,Dylan Loomis。首先感谢我的新赞助者Alodin,谢谢你选择支持这个频道。今天有一些令人难以置信的报道,比如这个。报道称,特斯拉可能考虑收购一些西方汽车品牌,以多样化并扩展其产品线。鉴于特斯拉目前在更新其产品组合,以及专注于其他领域如机器人出租车方面的困难,收购可能成为计划的一部分。这是来自Alpha Values的Adrien Braisie的观点。我不想打击你,Adrien,但这不太可能发生。问题在于,查看Adrien的LinkedIn可以发现,他关注的公司主要是大众、宝马、奔驰和Stellantis,主要聚焦于欧洲股票。他其实并不关注特斯拉,这从他的观点中可以看出。
I mean, could you imagine Tesla trying to acquire the Mach E brand or the Cadillac Lyric brand? It's just insanity and would add zero value to what Tesla is doing. I trust that I don't need to explain this any further, so let's move on. In my quest to find FSD13 doing something wrong, we may have that here as Spencer on X shared that it ran a red light. So just watch closely, but note that the road he's turning from is indeed a two way road that will be important as you'll see shortly. If you watch it back from here, it's almost like the car is reacting to the walking sign. Spencer did clarify he stepped on the brake, so had he not done that, FSD13 would have gone through. Spencer is in Texas and the Texas traffic code says if you're at a steady red light, you can turn left, but only if the intersecting streets are both one way streets and a left turn is permissible.
意思是说,想象一下特斯拉去收购Mach E品牌或凯迪拉克Lyriq品牌,这简直是疯了,对特斯拉正在做的事情毫无价值。我相信不需要进一步解释,就继续讨论下一个话题。在我寻找FSD13犯错的过程中,可能找到了一个例子。Spencer在X平台上分享说它闯了红灯。注意观察,但请注意他转弯的那条路确实是双向车道,这点马上就会很重要。如果你从这里回放,就像汽车在对行人信号灯作出反应一样。Spencer澄清说,他踩了刹车,否则FSD13就会直接通过。Spencer在德克萨斯州,而德克萨斯的交通法规规定,如果是固定的红灯,可以左转,但只有当交叉路口的两条街道都是单行道并且允许左转时。
So given this intersecting street was not a one way street, this move would have been illegal. But as far as I can tell in other places, it is actually allowed to turn left at a red light if it's going on to a one way street, even if the intersecting street is bidirectional. Obviously not dangerous, I just thought that situation was interesting. Jordan Kamina uploaded about a 25 minute video stress testing version 13 in New York City, and there were multiple highlights, so I'll just show you a few. Let's see if it notices this no turn on red arrow. Okay, it's doing it. Previous versions did not abide by these right. Okay, it should go right now as the pedestrian is going to stop. It does. It creeps up nicely. It's going to wait for this guy to exit the street, and it's going to go perfectly. Wow. Such a drastic improvement.
鉴于这条交叉街道不是单行道,这样的行为是违法的。不过,据我了解,在其他地方,如果是在红灯时左转进入单行道,即使交叉街道是双向道,也是被允许的。这种情况并不危险,只是我觉得挺有趣的。Jordan Kamina 上传了一个大约25分钟的视频,测试第13版在纽约市的表现,其中有很多亮点,我会给你展示几个。我们来看看它是否注意到了这个禁止红灯转弯的箭头。嗯,它注意到了。之前的版本没有遵守这些规则。好,现在行人要停下了,它应该可以走。这车稳稳地向前移动,在等待这位行人离开街道后,顺利通过了。哇,真是一个巨大的进步。
I can't believe it's doing this. Okay. Moving around, these people are going to run across the street. It should go right after this girl with a bag. It does. It goes nice and slow with his speed bumps. Wow, let's see what it does here with this thing in the middle. Probably cut behind it. What it's doing is probably what I would do too. Okay, let me go after this guy. Ooh, it doesn't think it can squeeze it, made it nice and smooth though. In 500 feet, turn right onto your beam plate. Ooh, this is so complicated. Oh, it's got to go quick. Oh, it's going to get caught in the middle. Okay, that's fine. That's how you do that. Wow, this is interesting. There's a lot of red lights. There's the bike. There's the left. There's another left. There's the straight. I'm curious. And there's another bike one over there.
我真不敢相信它这样做。好的。移动时,这些人会横穿马路。应该在拿包的女孩之后走。确实如此。它在减速带上慢慢行驶。哇,让我们看看它在中间这个东西面前怎么做。可能会从后面绕过去。它在做的可能也就是我会做的。好,让我跟上这个人。哦,它认为不能挤过去,但做得非常顺利。再前500英尺,右转进入你的路径。哦,这太复杂了。哦,它必须迅速行动。哦,它会被卡在中间。好的,没关系,这就是这样操作的。哇,这很有趣。有很多红灯。还有自行车,这里往左转,那里也往左转,这里直行。我很好奇。还有那边的另一个自行车道。
I'm curious to see if it gets hung up or if it's just going to read the left turn arrow. So the bike is green. It should not go. Good. Now, is it going up? The other one is green. It's not even seeing that, which I guess is good. It should go as soon as the left turn arrow goes green, which I assume will be after the bike and the walk. Okay, the bike is yellow. Should go right now. Oh, and it is. This is so cool. The previous version is just definitely mess this up every single time. Amazing. Oh, it is pulling in front of it. Is it just going to pull over? Oh, it is. It is pulling over. Is it going to pull all the way up? It is just a robotaxi. I would say the car is performing pretty good. If you had to ask me, this is a very difficult driving environment in a very, very weird area. Right as I say that, it is doing this weird thing or it is deciding to camp behind this cab. Oh, look at that. It is giving these people space to back into the spot. This is insane.
我很好奇看看它会不会卡住,还是只会看到左转箭头。自行车是绿灯,所以不应该走。很好。现在,它是否在前进?另一个是绿灯,但它连那个都没看到,我觉得这挺好的。它应该在左转箭头变绿后马上走,我想这会在自行车和行人的灯熄灭之后。哦,自行车黄灯了,现在应该走了。哦,它动了。太酷了。以前的版本每次都搞砸了。令人惊讶。哦,它在前面靠边停了。它是不是要靠边停?哦,真的是在靠边停。车会一直开到前面吗?它就是一辆无人出租车。我觉得车表现得不错。如果你问我,这个驾驶环境非常困难,而且是在一个非常奇怪的区域。当我这么说的时候,它正做着一些奇怪的事情,比如决定停在这辆出租车后面。哦,看看这个,它在给这些人腾位置,以便他们倒车入位。真是太疯狂了。
I thought it was doing the wrong thing, but it is just letting these, this guy, oh boy, he is a terrible parallel parker, this guy. Okay, moved up a little bit. I stand corrected. Oh my gosh, that is insane. This is crazy. Every time I think it is going to do something wrong, it is something that I did not yet see. I mean, okay, I watched this clip back so many times to try to figure it out. There was really no indication that this red car was trying to parallel park. Maybe this was just a coincidence and it happened to work out this way, but I'd be very curious what you guys think happened in this scenario. Many of you know, as of late, I really have been trying to be critical of FSD to highlight the things it's still not doing well because that really is the minority. But with version 13, I'll admit this is the hardest it's ever been. My wife and I have some friends in New York City and the last time we were there, she didn't even like being a passenger on those streets. So there's no way she'd ever want to drive, but with FSD 13 and future releases that may no longer be a concern. The way I see it, the freedom that FSD and autonomy are going to unlock is still overlooked.
我本以为它做错了,但实际上却在给这个人留空间。哎呀,这个人真的很不会侧方停车。不过,好吧,他稍微前进了一点。我得承认我看错了。天啊,太疯狂了。我每次觉得它要出错时,结果却是我没预料到的。我反复看了这个片段很多次,想弄明白。实际上,没有任何迹象表明那辆红色的车在尝试侧方停车。也许这只是个巧合,结果正好成了这样,但我很想知道你们怎么看待这个情形。最近,很多人都知道,我一直努力批评FSD(全自动驾驶)来指出它仍然不太好的地方,因为这确实是少数情况。但说实话,对于第13版来说,这是我见过的最难的一个。我和妻子有一些朋友住在纽约市,上次我们去那里的时候,她连当乘客都不喜欢坐那些街道上车。所以她绝对不愿开车,但随着FSD第13版和未来的更新版本推出,这可能不再是个顾虑。在我看来,FSD和自动驾驶将要解锁的自由仍然被低估了。
RoboSlay driver shared a video of FSD sitting still at a green light as this ambulance came through. A shock ended up sharing that saying even better handling including audio inputs coming in FSD 13.4. You can see in the video the light turns green now and the car stays still. That's the ambulance go through. Naturally, people are wondering if Tesla will skip 13.3 and there's a chance, but this statement from a shock does not guarantee that it just may be that this specific feature isn't coming until 13.4. As we talked about a few weeks back, Megapack and Tesla's auto bidder will power France's largest battery. When you have the largest of anything in one country, it's likely to get some attention so in this case Tesla, auto bidder and Megapack should be in the headlines.
RoboSlay 的司机分享了一段视频,显示自动驾驶系统(FSD)在绿灯时停在那里,因为有一辆救护车经过。一个消息来源分享了一条令人震惊的信息,说更好的处理能力包括音频输入将在FSD 13.4版本中实现。你可以在视频中看到,灯变绿后,车子仍然停着,然后救护车通过。大家自然会想知道特斯拉是否会跳过13.3版本,这有可能,但这个消息来源并不能保证,只是说明这个特定功能可能要到13.4才会推出。正如几周前提到的,Megapack和特斯拉的自动竞价器将为法国最大的电池提供动力。当一个国家拥有全球最大的某项事物时,常会引起关注,所以在这种情况下,特斯拉、自动竞价器和Megapack应该会成为头条新闻。
Many other companies in the region will be looking at this project to see if it's a success and based on all of the data we have, it should be an absolute yes. From Wood Mackenzie, the United States deployed 9.9 gigawatt hours of energy storage in quarter three. That numbers up 60% year over year. Over 90% of those deployments were in the grid scale segment with residential around 9% and commercial and industrial 1%. On the grid scale side, 93% was in Texas in California. On the residential side, the three biggest states, California, Arizona and North Carolina. Across all segments, 2024 is expected to see a total of 34.4 gigawatt hours deployed up 26% year over year. Importantly, for now, the word is that a full repeal of the investment tax credit for energy storage is not expected, but some of those adders and riders may be at risk.
在该地区,许多其他公司将关注这个项目,看看它是否成功。根据我们获得的所有数据,这个项目应该会取得绝对的成功。根据伍德·麦肯兹的报告,美国在第三季度部署了9.9吉瓦时的能源存储,同比增长60%。其中超过90%的部署在电网级别,住宅市场约占9%,商业和工业市场则占1%。在电网级别的部署中,93%发生在德克萨斯和加利福尼亚。在住宅市场方面,最大的三个州是加利福尼亚、亚利桑那和北卡罗来纳州。在所有领域,预计2024年将部署总计34.4吉瓦时,同比增长26%。目前,重要的是,完全取消能源存储投资税收抵免的可能性不大,但其中一些附加优惠和条款可能面临风险。
A fun fact, we had 9.9 gigawatt hours deployed across all of the United States in quarter three. Tesla alone in quarter three deployed 6.9 gigawatt hours. Of course, Tesla deployed its figure globally, but just a little bit of context for that US number. And in what certainly a beat the shot clock type of scenario, the Department of Energy has offered a conditional commitment of a loan up to $15 billion for California's PG&E. The money would be for PG&E's Project Polaris, which includes things like expanding hydropower generation and battery storage, upgrading transmission capacity, and enabling virtual power plants. But this is a beat the buzzer scenario because Trump has already come out and said that he's going to clamp down on the Department of Energy and Loan Program Office funding. So they're trying to get the money out there as soon as possible. And Neohan, who has worked very closely with Tesla the past few years, just got $890 million in capital to fund energy storage and renewable energy generation projects in Australia. They confirmed part of that money will go to the Caulley Battery Stage 2, which Tesla is involved in, supposed to be completed in 2025. And the Western Downs Battery, which will use Tesla Megapacks, will also receive some of that funding for continued development. It's understandable all anybody wants to talk about is FSD, maybe a bit of optimist, just don't forget about Tesla energy.
一个有趣的事实是,在第三季度,美国各地总共部署了9.9吉瓦时的能源。光是特斯拉在第三季度就部署了6.9吉瓦时。当然,特斯拉这个数据是全球的,但这也为美国的数字提供了一个背景。在一个赶时间的情况下,美国能源部已承诺为加州的PG&E提供高达150亿美元的贷款。资金将用于PG&E的Project Polaris项目,该项目包括扩大水力发电和电池储存、升级传输能力以及实现虚拟电厂。但这有点像抢在最后一刻获得资金的情况,因为特朗普已经表态会收紧能源部和贷款办公室的资金。因此,他们正尽快争取到这些资金。过去几年与特斯拉密切合作的Neohan刚刚获得了8.9亿美元的资金,用于资助在澳大利亚的储能和可再生能源项目。他们确认部分资金将用于特斯拉参与的Caulley电池第二阶段,预计在2025年完工。使用特斯拉Megapacks的Western Downs电池项目也将获得一些资金用于持续发展。可以理解,每个人都只想谈论FSD,或许还有一些乐观派,但别忘了特斯拉的能源业务。
Roland shared a chart showing year to date data for different countries across the EU and whether Tesla sales are up or down in that time frame. Given the chart is shown in units and not percentages, naturally you're going to have the bigger countries in terms of unit volume toward the polls. But January through November, comparing this year to 2023, Germany is down 26,000 units, France is down 18.5,000 and Denmark down 4.6,000. On the positive side, the Netherlands is up 7.1,000, Belgium up 5,000, and Spain up 2,000. If you do the math for all of the countries listed on this chart, Tesla is down about 44,000 units year over year.
罗兰分享了一张图表,展示了截至今年为止,欧洲各国特斯拉销量的增长或下降情况。图表以销量单位显示,而不是百分比,因此销量较大的国家自然会在数量上占据榜首。从今年一月至十一月的数据来看,与2023年相比,德国销量减少了26,000辆,法国减少了18,500辆,丹麦减少了4,600辆。在增长方面,荷兰增加了7,100辆,比利时增加了5,000辆,西班牙增加了2,000辆。如果计算图表中列出的所有国家的数据,特斯拉的销量同比减少了大约44,000辆。
The Peterson Automotive Museum put out a quick video of Franz and the CyberCab, and here are a few new things that we learned. Franz said the gold color of the CyberCab actually reflects a future version of the idea of the New York City Yellow Cab. So Tesla took that iconic yellow and then created something more expressive and more up to date. When it comes to the wheels, Tesla wanted them to disappear and become part of the overall design of the car. Which is why they extended the color onto the tire itself. Franz said it makes it so the car seems like it's hovering and floating. Franz did reiterate that anybody will be able to own, purchase, or lease the CyberCab, but he confirmed it will never have a steering wheel.
彼得森汽车博物馆发布了一段关于Franz和CyberCab的小视频,我们从中了解到一些新信息。Franz表示,CyberCab的金色实际上反映了未来纽约市黄出租车的设计理念。因此,特斯拉在这种标志性的黄色基础上,创造出了一种更具表现力和时代感的设计。关于车轮的设计,特斯拉希望它们能够消失在整体车身设计中,因此他们将颜色延伸到了轮胎上。Franz表示,这样设计能让汽车看起来像是在悬浮和漂浮。Franz再次强调,任何人都可以购买或租赁CyberCab,但他确认这款车将永远不会有方向盘。
I'll really never understand why people are still arguing it might have a wheel eventually. The Tesla team has made it abundantly clear it's never going to. And if you want to check it out, the CyberCab will be at the Peterson Museum until the beginning of January. One thing to note, Franz did refer to the CyberCab doors as dihedral. Ordinarily that refers to a hinge mechanism that allows the doors to rotate 90 degrees by sweeping outwards and upwards simultaneously. Tesla Asia shared Tesla achieved first place in four rankings in the latest 2024 China NEV Industry Customer Satisfaction Index. For pure electric midsize cars, the Model 3 and NEOs ET5T both tied with a score of 80. For midsize SUVs, the Model Y came in first solo with a score of 81, followed by Zhao Peng's G6 and the Wenji M5 both with scores of 80.
我真的不明白为什么人们仍然在争论它可能最终会有个方向盘。特斯拉团队已经明确表示它绝对不会有。如果你想了解更多,可以去彼得森博物馆看CyberCab,它会一直展出到一月初。值得注意的是,Franz把CyberCab的车门称为对角门。一般来说,这指的是一种铰链机制,允许车门旋转90度,同时向外和向上摆动。特斯拉亚洲分享消息称,特斯拉在最新的2024年中国新能源汽车行业客户满意度指数中获得了四项排名的第一。在纯电动中型车中,Model 3和蔚来ET5T都以80分并列第一。在中型SUV中,Model Y以81分独占鳌头,其次是赵鹏的G6和问界M5,两者均得分80。
So the Model 3 and Y are ranked number one in their respective categories for overall owner satisfaction and Tesla ranks number one in customer satisfaction with sales and service. Tesla shared a new video showing how the Apple Watch will work and it's much better than mine from last week so here you go. Tesla's Plant Manager at Gigashang High saw and gang has left the company. He's been the manager at Gigashang High since 2018. He said today is my last day at Tesla and I feel extremely fortunate to have worked and fought with everyone on this plot of land. Fei Wenjin, who was recently promoted to Senior Director from Director of Quality, will take over Song's responsibilities for now.
Model 3 和 Model Y 在各自类别中被评为车主满意度第一,特斯拉在销售和服务的客户满意度上也排名第一。特斯拉发布了一段新视频,展示了 Apple Watch 的使用方法,比我上周看到的版本要好很多。特斯拉位于上海超级工厂的厂长宋钢已经离职。他自2018年以来一直担任这一职位。宋钢表示:“今天是我在特斯拉的最后一天,我感到非常幸运,能够与大家一起在这片土地上工作和奋斗。”最近晋升为高级总监的费文进将暂时接任宋钢的职责。
Song was among a group of Tesla Shanghai executives that traveled to Fremont and Gigatexas in 2022 to help troubleshoot production issues. Song was also the first employee of Tesla's first factory outside of the US which obviously was Gigashang High. Song, who was VP of Manufacturing, also spent time working for Tesla in the state where he was involved in factory construction and business planning of potential facilities. After that, he returned to Shanghai where he helped set up Tesla's Megapack Factory. As of now, there's no reason given and there's nothing new yet on his LinkedIn page.
宋是特斯拉上海的一位高管,曾在2022年前往弗里蒙特和得克萨斯州的超级工厂,协助解决生产问题。此外,宋是特斯拉在美国之外的第一家工厂——上海超级工厂的首位员工。担任制造副总裁的宋还曾在美国工作,参与工厂建设和潜在设施的业务规划。之后,他返回上海,帮助建立了特斯拉的超级电池工厂。目前尚未给出他离开的具体原因,他的LinkedIn页面上也没有更新。
You may have seen that Tesla has launched actually smart summon across China and now it's also available in South Korea as well. Alex Gieshe, who works on the mobile app and design at Tesla said that Tesla recharged is out for Powerwall and solar owners, releasing with app 4.40.0 over the next few days. You can think of it like a Spotify rewind in that it shows you all of your data and usage and savings throughout the year. Tesla Energy shared a video highlighting some of Tesla's stats for solar and powerwall users throughout the year, highlighting those products saved customers over $800 million on utility bills.
特斯拉已经在中国推出了真正智能的智能召唤功能,现在在韩国也上线了。特斯拉负责手机应用和设计的Alex Gieshe表示,Tesla Recharged功能即将在未来几天内随4.40.0版应用推出,适用于Powerwall和太阳能用户。你可以把它想象成Spotify的年度回顾,它展示了你整年的数据、使用情况和节省费用。特斯拉能源发布了一段视频,重点介绍了太阳能和Powerwall用户全年的一些数据,显示这些产品为客户总共节省了超过8亿美元的电费。
It's been pretty quiet lately for anything related to Project Juniper and good luck finding anything from this screen grab but just know it is out there and being tested. The most recent sighting was in San Jose, California. One major thing I don't really see many people talking about is what all of these companies are going to do that have announced hundreds of billions of dollars of investments in the United States specifically to take advantage of the inflation reduction act. Of course not all of that is going to be repealed but there are going to be significant changes. By the numbers, companies have announced $312 billion in planned investments in the US. That number is up from $75 billion when Biden took office in 2021.
最近关于“Project Juniper”的消息相当少见,很难从这张截图中找到相关信息,但请知道,它确实存在并正在测试中。最近一次发现是在加利福尼亚州的圣荷西。有一个很重要的事情我看到不多人在讨论,那就是那些宣布在美国投资数千亿美元的公司将会怎么做,这些投资主要是为了利用《通货膨胀削减法案》。当然,并不是所有相关条款都会被推翻,但肯定会有显著的变化。数据显示,公司宣布计划在美国投资3120亿美元,这个数字从拜登2021年上任时的750亿美元增加了不少。
Half of that number, about $133 billion, is slated for battery manufacturing and recycling. Hopefully a majority of that is safe. But about $70 billion of that is allocated for EV manufacturing. Most of that again was to take advantage of EV tax credits that may now be going away. And $21 billion is directed towards facilities producing components further down the supply chain like EV parts and critical minerals. Again, hopefully a majority of that is in the clear. And of course to lock down that $70 billion and to turn that into real economic value in real projects there needed to be some stability with the inflation reduction act and we really have the opposite of that. If the EV tax credits do end up getting repealed, I'm going to be expecting either factory cancellations or a repurposing of these factories for hybrids or some other technology. These other auto companies are already hemorrhaging money on their full EV business. So without the EV tax credit, I can't see these factories continuing to make sense.
该金额的一半,大约1330亿美元,将用于电池制造和回收。这笔投资希望大部分是安全的。其中约700亿美元被分配到电动汽车制造。这笔资金中的大部分原本是为了利用可能即将取消的电动汽车税收抵免。另外,21亿美元被用于生产电动汽车零件和关键矿物等供应链下游部件的工厂。希望这些资金的大部分也是安全的。当然,为了确保这700亿美元并将其转化为实际项目的经济价值,通胀削减法案需要保持稳定,而现在的情况却相反。如果电动汽车税收抵免被取消,我预计可能会有工厂被取消或转为生产混合动力或其他技术。这些汽车公司在纯电动业务上已经亏损严重。因此,没有电动汽车税收抵免,我认为这些工厂将无法继续运作。
Waymo shared its year in review and most of it was already things we've covered earlier this year but they did say they have served over 4 million fully autonomous rides this year alone, bringing their total to over 5 million rides total. As I've been saying, it's been a great year of growth for Waymo, it's just scaling to the masses, still there's no viable path. Waymo said the most popular destinations in each city this year were Sky Harbor International Airport in Phoenix, the Ferry Building in San Francisco and the Grove Shopping Center in LA. And we've already highlighted their expansion plans but they did say that their average trip length was 4.1 miles.
Waymo分享了他们的年度回顾,其中大部分内容我们今年早些时候就已经报道过。不过,他们提到仅今年就提供了超过400万次完全自动驾驶的乘车服务,使他们的总乘车数量超过500万次。正如我一直所说的,对于Waymo来说,这是增长丰厚的一年,虽然它正在向大众推广,但仍然没有看到可行的发展道路。Waymo表示,今年每个城市最受欢迎的目的地分别是凤凰城的天港国际机场、旧金山的渡轮大楼以及洛杉矶的Grove购物中心。另外,我们之前也提到了他们的扩张计划,不过他们透露平均每次出行的距离为4.1英里。
Stellantis is delaying Ram's first electric pickup until 2026, citing slowing industry demand. Instead, they're going to focus on their electrification efforts with the extended range 1500 Ram Charger, the vehicle that uses a gasoline engine as a generator. The fully electric Ram truck was set to debut in early 2025 but that's been delayed at least one year. On the Ram Charger, they said it's driven by overwhelming consumer interest to maintaining a competitive advantage in the tech and slowing industry demand for half ton B.E.V pickups. This will definitely be a thread to watch and this is where Tesla has a new rival or enemy of sorts.
Stellantis将Ram的首款电动皮卡推迟到2026年推出,称这是因为行业需求放缓。相反,他们将专注于推出1500 Ram Charger延程版,这款车使用汽油发动机作为发电机。原本定于2025年初亮相的全电动Ram卡车现在至少推迟了一年。关于Ram Charger,他们表示是由于消费者对该车型的强烈兴趣,以及在技术方面保持竞争优势,并应对电动半吨皮卡需求放缓的情况。这无疑是一个值得关注的话题,也预示着特斯拉在这一领域迎来了新的竞争对手或挑战者。
Some US producers of graphite have initiated a trade action seeking sharp tariff increases on Chinese graphite. They're arguing Beijing's massive state subsidies are artificially lowering prices and making it impossible for them to compete. This industry group wants punitive tariffs as high as 920% on Chinese graphite. Right now, the numbers at 25%. Some analysts are arguing if the tariffs went that high, it could double the cost of an EV battery cell given that right now graphite costs make up about 10% of the cell. As we touched on earlier this year, in the US, it costs at least 20% more to make a battery cell than doing so in China.
一些美国石墨生产商发起了一项贸易行动,要求大幅提高对中国石墨的关税。他们声称,中国政府的大规模补贴使得石墨价格人为降低,使他们无法竞争。这个行业组织希望对中国石墨征收高达920%的惩罚性关税。目前的关税为25%。一些分析人士表示,如果关税达到如此高的水平,电动汽车电池单元的成本可能会翻倍,因为目前石墨成本占电池单元成本的约10%。正如我们在今年早些时候讨论的,在美国制造电池单元的成本比在中国高至少20%。
A very important point here though, during Trump's first administration, Tesla actually successfully lobbied for exemptions from these graphite tariffs. At the time, Tesla said there is no single manufacturer outside of China that currently meets Tesla's specs and additional capacity requirements. As Tesla has been unable to resource all of its artificial graphite, Tesla respectfully requests the exclusion be further extended at least through the end of 2025. And Tesla tested artificial graphite from other suppliers as potential substitutes, but the majority of suppliers were still at pilot scale or were still planning to build the mass production capacity and can't supply to Tesla in the 2024-2025 timeframe.
在这一点上很重要的是,在特朗普第一次执政期间,特斯拉实际上成功游说获得了石墨关税的豁免。当时,特斯拉表示,除了中国之外,没有任何一家制造商能够满足特斯拉的规格和额外的产能需求。由于特斯拉无法获得其所需的全部人造石墨,因此特斯拉恳请将豁免延续至少到2025年底。特斯拉也曾测试过其他供应商的人造石墨作为潜在替代品,但大多数供应商还处于试点阶段或正在计划建设大规模生产能力,无法在2024-2025年期间向特斯拉供货。
Back to today, decisions on whether to impose the tariffs would only happen after investigations that won't conclude until well into 2025. One of the only companies in the United States working on making graphite is Novonics and they're looking to do so in Tennessee. This is all interesting timing because just earlier this week, the loan program office announced a conditional commitment for a direct loan up to 754 million to Novonics to finance construction of a new facility in Chattanooga, Tennessee to make synthetic graphite. So in a sense, you could look at this like it's Novonics first Tesla, which side will the government take? Of course, first of all, we have to see if these tariffs even come to fruition, but if they do, we'll Tesla get an exemption as the major player. It's kind of a catch-22. Of course, we want more domestic production, but we're not going to get it unless companies start going to those companies to buy it bypassing the cheaper option from China.
回到今天,关于是否实施关税的决定只有在进行调查之后才会做出,而这些调查要到2025年才会结束。在美国仅有的从事石墨生产的公司之一是Novonics,他们计划在田纳西州进行生产。这一切的时机都很有趣,因为就在本周早些时候,贷款计划办公室宣布了一项有条件的承诺,向Novonics提供高达7.54亿美元的直接贷款,用于资助在田纳西州查塔努加新建一个合成石墨生产设施。从某种意义上说,可以把这看作是Novonics的首个'Tesla'时刻,政府会站在哪边呢?当然,首先我们要看看这些关税是否真的会实行,但如果实行,作为主要参与者的特斯拉会获得豁免吗?这有点像进退两难的局面。当然,我们希望更多的国内生产,但除非公司开始向这些国内公司采购,而不是选择更便宜的中国选项,否则生产不会增加。
Bear in mind, China controlled about 92% of the market for high-grade graphite used in battery production in 2023, and the US imported about 42% of its graphite supply from China. Not only that, but China handled over 90% of the graphite processing around the world. So yeah, it's certainly going to be one to watch.
请注意,到2023年,中国掌握了约92%的高品质石墨市场,这种石墨用于电池生产。美国大约42%的石墨供应依赖于从中国进口。不仅如此,中国还负责全球超过90%的石墨加工。因此,这个问题确实值得关注。
We finally get an announcement about a new Tesla Semi-Customer customer as Saya LTL Freight has announced a partnership with Tesla to add two Tesla Semi's to its fleet. They said our partnership with Tesla underscores our dedication to evolution while staying true to the values that have guided us for the past century.
我们终于收到了有关特斯拉新客户的公告,Saya LTL Freight 宣布与特斯拉合作,将两辆特斯拉半挂卡车加入其车队。他们表示,与特斯拉的合作彰显了我们在保持引导我们过去一个世纪的价值观的同时,不断发展的承诺。
We were very impressed with the Tesla Semi as it demonstrated an ability to handle both local and longer haul applications while still delivering notable power and efficiency. During a demonstration earlier this year, we achieved 1.73kWh per mile. Our drivers were equally impressed, noting the smooth acceleration, comfortable design, and its ability to maintain speeds on steep inclines, even while hauling heavy payloads.
我们对特斯拉半挂卡车印象深刻,它在展示中表现出既能处理本地运输,又能应对长途运输的能力,同时仍保持显著的动力和效率。今年早些时候的一次演示中,我们达到了1.73千瓦时每英里的耗电量。我们的司机同样感到满意,他们特别提到加速平稳、设计舒适,以及它在爬陡坡时仍能保持速度,即使在运输重载时也是如此。
This feedback underscores the enormous potential of the Tesla Semi. If you're not familiar, LTL means less than truck load, so these are basically services where different companies can actually share one of the Semi's for a trip, meaning the portion that each company actually needs would not take up the entire capacity of the truck. So basically Freight from different shippers is consolidated at terminals and then ultimately transported to their final destinations.
这条反馈突显了特斯拉Semi卡车的巨大潜力。如果你不太了解,LTL指的是“少于整车的货运”,也就是不同公司可以共同使用一辆Semi卡车进行运输,这意味着每家公司的货物并不需要占用卡车的全部运载空间。简单来说,就是来自不同托运人的货物会在中转站集结,然后最终运送到各自的目的地。
Saya actually ranked 9th among LTL carriers in the United States in 2023 when they reported revenues of $2.8 billion. So two is obviously a small order, sounds like they're still testing the fully electric waters. Tesla and the markets had a rough day today as the Fed basically told us that they're expecting fewer rate cuts going forward.
Saya 在 2023 年实际排名为美国 LTL 承运商中的第 9 名,当时他们的收入报告为 28 亿美元。所以,两个订单显然是个小订单,听起来他们还在试探全电动领域。特斯拉和市场今天经历了艰难的一天,因为美联储基本上告诉我们,他们预计未来的降息次数会减少。
On that news, Tesla stock ended the day at $440.13 down 8.28% while the Nasdaq was down 3.56%. If you look at the wicks for Tesla today, it was a very volatile day. It wicked down to $427. At one point, and it was also up as high as about $488. So definitely one of the most volatile days dating back the past few months.
受该消息影响,特斯拉股票以440.13美元收盘,下跌8.28%,而纳斯达克指数则下跌了3.56%。查看特斯拉今天的股票价格波动,可以看出这是非常动荡的一天。股票价格曾一度跌至427美元,也曾最高涨到约488美元。所以,这绝对是过去几个月中波动最大的一天之一。
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