Charles Payne Show December 17, 2024

I'm CIO Joe Wang and Joe. So what do you think the markets basing these assumptions on rate cuts next year? What is that all about? Well, hey, Charles, thanks so much for having me. So I think the market is really, really misunderstanding the Fed. The market is only pricing in two cuts next year. And I think that's because the market is concerned about inflation. And the market is thinking that financial conditions are too loose. But both of those things misunderstand how the Fed is looking at this. Now, if you're listening closely to Chair Powell, he's been basically going out of his way to downplay the recent uptake in inflation data. He's going back to saying, looking at, say, three month annualized, six month annualized. He's going back to saying that shelter is going to come down. So he's doing everything he can to try to downplay this inflation, because I think in his heart, he believes that inflation is largely done. It's all but mission accomplished. And at the same time, the unemployment rate is rising. And so that's a recipe for more cuts. Now, the second thing is that now the street and many people are looking at the stock market going up and thinking that financial conditions are too loose. The Fed can't cut. But again, that's misunderstanding how the Fed looks at financial conditions. Now, Fed officials have been telling you, they're looking at things like financing rates. So mortgage rates are high. People are unable to afford houses. That's tight financial conditions. Credit card to link ruces are going up. That's tight financial conditions. They make policy according to those financing rates, and not how high Bitcoin is or how high max 7 is. That's a misunderstanding. And so because of that, I think they're going to definitely cut rates at least four times, and maybe as many as six next year. You know, it's interesting because if they are looking, for instance, the jumpstart housing, they probably have to do maybe six, right? You've got to help get that mortgage rate down, right? To under six, maybe a five-handle, four-handle, before the housing market really moves. I do want to ask you about the increase in the word. I saw this somewhere, the word careful, right? In recent Fed speak, which is always sort of been coincided with policy inaction. In other words, it feels like there's a certain degree of confusion or angst inside the Fed. Do you think that's true? Well, absolutely. Now, I agree with your assessment. Chair Powell is a good man, trying to do a good job. But listen, think about it from their perspective. Now, next year, let's say we have tax cuts. That's very bullish for the economy. But then let's say we have trade wars. That's not good for the economy. So how are you going to do policy? Or let's look at the labor market. Let's say that we really do have a ginormous deportation. And that's going to tighten up the labor market a lot. But then let's say, doge comes into effect. Elon Musk slims down the federal government, fires a lot of people. Well, that's going to loosen up the labor market. Now, you have all these conflicting policies going on. I think it's really hard to make a decision. So what Chair Powell has been saying is that he's just going to wait and see. Now, that's going to basically commit him to being behind. But at this point in time, I'm not sure there's a better way. There's just so much confusion as you know. John, you just got less than a minute ago. But Judy talked about currency. And the role that currency is used to manipulate everything. We know that the dollar, for instance, plays a pivotal role in our markets. It will play a pivotal role in this trade skirmish that we've got coming up. Where do you see the dollar? Where would you like to see it?

翻译成中文，请尽量使其易读： 我是首席信息官乔·王。乔，您怎么看待市场基于明年降息的假设？这到底是怎么回事？嗨，查尔斯，非常感谢您邀请我。我认为市场对美联储的理解存在很大误区。市场只预期明年降息两次，我觉得这是因为市场对通胀的担忧，以及金融环境太过宽松的考虑。然而，这两点都误解了美联储的观点。如果你仔细听鲍威尔主席的讲话，他基本上在尽力淡化近期通胀数据的上升。他回归到观察三个月或六个月年度化的指标上。他还表示，住房成本会下降。他正在尽一切努力淡化这种通胀，因为我认为在他心里，他相信通胀基本上已经完成，任务几乎完成。同时，失业率正在上升，这为更多降息提供了理由。 其次，大家看到股市上涨，就认为金融环境太宽松，美联储无法降息，但这也误解了美联储如何看待金融环境。美联储官员已经告诉我们，他们观察的是像融资利率这样的东西。所以，抵押贷款利率很高，人们买不起房子，这就是紧缩的金融环境。信用卡利率上升，这也是紧缩的金融环境。他们根据这些融资利率来制定政策，而不是比特币涨得多高。这是一种误解。因此，我认为他们明年一定会降息至少四次，可能多达六次。 有趣的是，如果他们想推动住房市场，他们可能需要降息六次，把抵押贷款利率降到6%以下，甚至4%到5%左右，才能真正刺激住房市场。我想问问您关于"谨慎"这个词的使用增加的情况，我在哪里见过，因为最近在美联储的讲话中，这个词与政策不作为总是相伴而生。换句话说，感觉美联储内部有某种程度的困惑或焦虑。您认为这是真的吗？ 当然，我同意您的看法。鲍威尔主席是个好人，努力做好工作。但请从他们的角度想一想。假设明年我们有减税政策，经济将受到很大的刺激。但是如果还有贸易战，那对经济就不好了。那么，您要如何制定政策呢？或者让我们看看劳动力市场。如果真的有大量的遣返，会大幅度收紧劳动力市场。但如果埃隆·马斯克削减联邦政府，解雇很多人，那会放松劳动力市场。所有这些相互冲突的政策使得决策非常困难。因此，鲍威尔主席表示他会观望。这将使他落后于局势发展，但在目前阶段，我不确定有更好的办法。正如你所知道的，现在有太多的混乱。 约翰，还有不到一分钟，但朱迪谈到了货币，以及货币被用来操控一切的角色。我们知道，美元在我们的市场中扮演着关键角色，它将在我们即将到来的贸易争端中发挥重要作用。您怎么看待美元？您希望它处于什么位置？

So I'm pretty sure the dollar is going to be a lot weaker going forward. Not just because I think they're going to have more rate cuts, but because the president and vice president-elect have been on record saying that they would like to have a weaker dollar. As Judy mentioned, this is a really important part of re-industrializing the United States, which I think is going to drive that American renaissance that Judy is talking about. But I want to warn everyone, though, now that weaker dollar is going to be good for the middle class because it's going to create jobs. But it's not going to be good for all these rich people who have been making money off the equity market.

所以我认为美元未来会大幅走弱。原因不仅是因为我认为他们将会有更多的降息，还有因为总统和当选副总统曾公开表示他们希望美元走弱。正如朱迪提到的，这对美国的再工业化非常重要，这也是朱迪谈到的美国复兴的驱动力。但我要提醒大家，虽然美元走弱将对中产阶级有利，因为这会创造就业机会，但对那些在股市赚钱的富人来说，则未必是好事。

This is because over the past few years, foreigners have really poured into the US equity market. Foreign exposure to US equities is at all time highs, and it's surged by trillions in just a few years. As a dollar weakens, a lot of these foreigners are just going to have to exit the market to avoid currency losses. And when they sell, and that could precipitate the sell-off that many people have been running about. This is going to, I guess, undo the K-shaped economy. But I think this is an important part in rebalancing the American economy and having that American renaissance that I think President Trump is going to usher in.

这几年，外国投资者大量涌入美国股市，外国在美股市场的投资达到了历史最高水平，并在短短几年内激增了数万亿美元。随着美元贬值，许多外国投资者可能会退出市场以避免因汇率波动造成损失。当他们抛售美股时，这可能引发不少人担心的市场抛售。这一过程可能会改变“ K型经济”的现象。我认为，这也是重新平衡美国经济的一个重要环节，并可能推动美国的复兴，而我相信特朗普总统会引领这个过程。

You know what? If we have to take a short-term hit in the market to have a long-term renaissance for the heartland of America, I think that's a trade-off. I take personally any dime. Joe, I love the way you connect those dots. Thank you, my friend. Appreciate it. Thank you, Merry Christmas. Merry Christmas. All right, so we always.

你知道吗？如果为了美国腹地的长期复兴，我们必须在市场上承受短期的损失，我认为这是值得的。乔，我很喜欢你把这些事情联系起来的方式。谢谢你，我的朋友。我很感激。谢谢你，圣诞快乐。圣诞快乐。好的，我们总是……