Things Getting Crazy at Tesla / Optimus Removes Code / Dojo Gen 3 / Groundbreaking EV Study ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. Just a heads up, I do have a sore throat today and I'm not feeling well, but there are some important things I wanted to clarify, so bear with me as I work through this one. The Department of Energy put this chart out showing that ice sales have indeed peaked as of 2017. That peak came in just over 80 million units per year and as of 2023, the last full year with data, that number was below 60 million. They did say the ice category includes traditional hybrid vehicles that cannot be plugged in.

欢迎收听《Electrified》，我是你的主持人Dylan Loomis。先提醒一下大家，我今天嗓子有点痛，身体不太舒服，但我有一些重要的信息需要说明。请各位耐心听我讲完。能源部发布了一张图表，显示内燃机汽车的销量确实在2017年达到顶峰。那个峰值每年刚刚超过8000万辆，而截至2023年，根据完整数据，销量已降至6000万辆以下。他们还指出，内燃机类别包括无法插电的传统混合动力汽车。

One other trend to note, despite the overall recovery of these passenger vehicle sales since 2020, the overall portion of those sales made up of ice vehicles has been on a decline and it's really flatlined for the past three years. The official Tesla Optimus account shared this video of Optimus walking on some outside terrain in different scenarios. So despite this video somewhat looking like CGI, apparently this is real. Milan Kowats, an engineer at Tesla said these runs are on mulched ground where I've myself slipped before.

需要注意的另一个趋势是，尽管自2020年以来，乘用车销量整体有所回升，但由内燃机车辆构成的销量比例一直在下降，并在过去三年中趋于平稳。官方的特斯拉Optimus账号分享了一段Optimus在户外不同场景中行走的视频。尽管这段视频看起来有些像电脑生成的图像，但显然是真实的。特斯拉的一名工程师米兰·科瓦茨表示，这些测试是在碎木覆盖的地面上进行的，他自己之前在这种地面上滑倒过。

What's really crazy here is that for these, Optimus is actually blind, keeping its balance without video yet only using other onboard sensors consumed by a neural net running in around 2-3 milliseconds on its embedded computer. The team is working on adding vision so it can better plan ahead, making the gate look more natural on rough terrain, making it more responsive to velocity and direction commands, and learning how to fall to minimize damage when it's unavoidable, and the ability to stand back up. So to everyone saying that Optimus walks like Joe Biden, I would just say, why don't you go outside, close your eyes, and try to walk up and down some mulched hills. And be sure to have a friend or family member record it and send me that video. But seriously, the fact that Optimus is doing this without any video input and just using onboard sensors is quite impressive.

这段话的核心意思是强调Optimus机器人的技术特点和进步。内容翻译如下： “真正令人惊叹的是，Optimus机器人实际上是‘盲目’保持平衡的，它没有使用视频，而仅依靠嵌入式计算机上一个以大约2-3毫秒速度运行的神经网络处理其他内置传感器信息。团队正在努力增加视觉功能，以便更好地进行提前规划，使机器人在不平整地形上行走更自然，提高对速度和方向指令的反应能力，以及学习如何在无法避免摔倒时尽量减少损伤，并具有重新站起来的能力。因此，对于那些说Optimus走路像Joe Biden的人，我想说，为什么不闭上眼睛，试着在有覆盖的山坡上上下走走，并确保让朋友或家人录下视频发给我。但说真的，Optimus能够在没有任何视频输入，仅凭内置传感器做到这些，确实相当令人印象深刻。”

Giuliani Barz, another Tesla engineer said our goal is to make thousands of robots doing useful things before the end of 2025. And confirmed, the team is hiring across many different divisions for Optimus AI. Elon added Optimus can now walk on highly variable ground using neural nets to control its electric limbs. Then just FYI, a bunch of people online are saying this video is fake because there's no other movement in the video, but that's just not true if you look here, the flags are moving, the cars driving, these plants in the foreground are waving back and forth so that's just a lie.

朱利安尼·巴兹（Giuliani Barz），另一位特斯拉工程师表示，我们的目标是在2025年底前制造出成千上万可以做有用事情的机器人。他还确认，团队正在为Optimus AI项目的多个不同部门招聘。埃隆补充说，Optimus现在可以在高度变化的地面上行走，使用神经网络来控制其电动肢体。顺便说一下，网上有很多人说这个视频是假的，因为视频中没有其他动作。但如果你仔细看，这种说法是不正确的，旗帜在移动、汽车在行驶，前景中的植物也在来回摇摆，所以这是不实的信息。

And watch this video in slow motion where it slips and almost falls and I would add 9 out of 10 people in this scenario are definitely going down and or tearing their ACL or their quad. But Optimus slips, swings its arms back real quick, brings the knee back, finds some grounding, and then corrects itself, which is again just wild only sensors. Elon said I forgot to mention Optimus was doing this blindfolded we haven't yet made vision part of the control loop for uneven terrain. Optimus robots are regularly cruising around our workplace in Palo Alto where vision is used for static and dynamic object avoidance.

观看这段慢动作视频，你会看到它滑了一下，差点摔倒。在这种情况下，十有八九的人肯定会摔倒，甚至可能扭伤膝盖或大腿肌肉。但Optimus机器人滑倒后迅速挥动双臂，将膝盖收回，稳住重心并自我纠正。更令人惊讶的是，它仅靠传感器就能做到这一点。Elon提到，他忘了说明Optimus在这种情况下是 "蒙着眼睛" 操作的，目前我们还没有将视觉整合到不平地面的控制系统中。Optimus机器人经常在我们位于帕洛阿尔托的办公室巡逻，那里的环境利用视觉来避开静态和动态物体。

And Ashish another Tesla engineer said we're making Optimus walk increasingly more robust and ready for all terrains achieved by replacing a chunk of C++ code with nets. So Optimus is taking a page out of Tesla's FSD version 12 playbook removing C++ code. So the two things to keep in mind on that front, one how smooth FSD version 12 was compared to version 11, and two the rate of progress we saw after version 12 was released. Now obviously all of the C++ code for Optimus has not been removed, but it sounds like they're walking down that path.

另一位特斯拉工程师阿希什表示，我们正在让Optimus的行走更加稳健，适应各种地形。这是通过用网络替换掉一部分C++代码实现的。因此，Optimus也从特斯拉的FSD（全自动驾驶）12版本中汲取了经验，逐步移除C++代码。在这方面需要注意的有两点：其一是FSD 12版本相比11版本更为流畅，其二是12版本发布后我们看到的进步速度。当然，目前Optimus的所有C++代码并未完全移除，但似乎他们正朝着这个方向努力。

And for what it's worth so far none of the engineers have said anything about teleoperation which in my opinion makes sense because to tele operate something like this I don't think is reasonable. Specifically when it comes to latency problems for balancing and the reflexes needed to actually catch itself. And a friendly reminder Elon posted this saying going for a walk with Optimus January 30th earlier this year. So as we've been saying all year the pace of progress for Optimus is pretty astounding.

到目前为止，所有的工程师都没有提到遥控操作。在我看来，这很合理，因为遥控操作这样的东西在技术上并不现实，特别是当涉及到平衡问题的延迟和需要快速反应来保持自身稳定时。另外友好提醒一下，埃隆·马斯克曾在今年1月30日发布消息说要和Optimus一起散步。所以，正如我们整个一年所说的，Optimus的发展速度非常惊人。

In case you're wondering what Elon meant last night when he said Tesla shorts reciting litany against fear right now, that's actually a mantra that's in the science fiction novel Dune. It's basically a psychological tool to help people try to overcome their fears by reciting the mantra. Elon also said the Tesla cue went cue sharing a post from whole Mars. Whole Mars just explained that you add a cue to the end of a ticker symbol when that company goes bankrupt. So Elon saying Tesla cue went cue means those betting against Tesla went and are going bankrupt.

如果你在想昨晚Elon所说的特斯拉空头正在背诵“对抗恐惧的祷文”是什么意思，那其实是《沙丘》这本科幻小说中的一句咒语。基本上，这是一种心理工具，通过反复念诵这个咒语来帮助人们克服他们的恐惧。Elon还提到“特斯拉Q成了Q”，并分享了Whole Mars的帖子。Whole Mars解释说，当一家公司破产时，会在其股票代码的末尾加上一个Q。所以Elon说“特斯拉Q成了Q”的意思是，那些押注特斯拉失败的人自己破产了。

I'm sharing that though because there's plenty of reporting on this new model cue that Tesla plans to launch in the first half of next year. But this is all stemming from Deutsche Bank's report from its autonomous driving day on December 5th. Becky Peterson, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal said that Travis Axelrod, who works in IR at Tesla, met with Deutsche Bank analysts. But from there everything is up to interpretation because the report has not been shared and there's plenty of conflicting information.

我之所以分享这个信息，是因为有很多关于特斯拉计划在明年上半年推出的新车型的报道。但这些信息主要来源于德意志银行在12月5日的自动驾驶日的报告。据《华尔街日报》记者Becky Peterson表示，特斯拉的投资者关系部员工Travis Axelrod与德意志银行的分析师会面。但由于报告尚未公布，其中的信息都可以有不同的解读，而且有很多相互矛盾的消息。

And just know the model cue name that everybody was talking about that was actually a misinterpretation by a Chinese source. It turns out that's just the name that Deutsche Bank is using to refer to the upcoming more affordable Tesla vehicle. With rumors like this, just try to think logically, why would the head of Tesla's IR tell a Wall Street bank about Tesla's upcoming vehicle? The answer is he would not. He's not going to share any new information because it's not the proper outlet and they don't want to Osborne sales in Tesla's Q3 deck. They told us plans for new vehicles plural, including more affordable models, plural, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025.

大家讨论的那个型号名字其实是一个中文来源的误解。事实是，那只是德意志银行用来称呼即将推出的更实惠的特斯拉车辆的名字。对于这样的传闻，我们需要用逻辑去思考，为什么特斯拉投资者关系负责人会告诉华尔街的一家银行关于特斯拉新车的信息呢？答案是不会的。他不会分享任何新信息，因为那不是合适的渠道，而且他们也不想影响特斯拉第三季度的销售。在特斯拉的报告中，他们告诉我们，多款新车的计划，包括更实惠的车型，仍在正轨，预计将在2025年上半年开始生产。

They'll use some aspects of the next gen platform and some aspects of the current platform. But here are the details from the meeting, just know that model Q name is not official. But they're saying the new model will be priced below $30,000 after subsidies, which again we've already known. They're saying in the second half of next year, Tesla may launch other models, which checks out and they're saying it could be a three-row, long wheelbase model Y variant launched in China. I think the most solid thing we can lean on from this report is that Tesla is reiterating many of these targets, one of which being it's aiming for 20-30% sales growth next year.

他们会使用下一代平台的一些方面，以及当前平台的一些方面。不过，这里有会议的详细信息，但请注意，型号Q的名字还不是官方的。他们表示新型号在补贴后价格低于3万美元，这一点我们已经知道了。他们还说明年下半年，特斯拉可能会推出其他车型，这个说法是可信的，并且还提到可能会在中国推出一种三排座位、加长轴距的Model Y变体。我认为从这份报告中我们最可以依赖的信息是，特斯拉正在重申许多这些目标，其中之一是明年 aiming for 20-30%的销售增长。

But Tesla said achieving the high end of the growth range would require essentially flawless execution. The plans for Gigamexico will continue to depend on geopolitical dynamics and the tariff situation. Tesla said 2025 will be a year of product launches, and as expected, that would be a disruptor to profitability in the short term, thanks to fixed cost absorption being less efficient. Tesla still expects to launch unsupervised FSD in California and Texas next year using existing Model 3 and Y vehicles. The company is still planning to use an in-house developed ride-hailing app to control the value chain.

特斯拉表示，要实现高端增长目标，几乎需要完美无瑕的执行。吉加墨西哥的计划将继续依赖于地缘政治动态和关税情况。特斯拉称，2025年将是新产品发布的年份，正如预期的那样，这将在短期内对盈利能力造成冲击，因为固定成本的吸收效率较低。特斯拉仍然计划明年在加州和德州推出无人监管的全自动驾驶功能，将使用现有的Model 3和Model Y车型。公司还计划使用内部开发的网约车应用来控制整个价值链。

Tesla believes that regulation is the biggest obstacle to the widespread deployment of self-driving taxis, which is why moving regulations to the federal level would be such a big deal. And to start for unsupervised, Tesla is planning to use an entirely company-owned fleet, and eventually they'll adjust the supply dynamically based on customer demand and traffic patterns. The cybercab is still expected to use the unboxed method when it begins production in 2026, and any subsequent products released are expected also to use the box-less process. At full production, Tesla expects the cost of building a cybercab to be less than $30,000.

特斯拉认为法规是自驾出租车普及的最大障碍，这也是为什么将法规提升到国家层面将是一个重大突破。为了开始无人监督的运营，特斯拉计划使用完全由公司拥有的车队，之后他们将根据客户需求和交通模式动态调整供应。预计在2026年开始生产时，网络出租车将采用“无框”方法，之后推出的产品也将使用这种无框工艺。特斯拉预计，当完全投产后，每辆网络出租车的制造成本将低于3万美元。

As the cybercab rolls out in 2026, companies will need to invest in service and cleaning and charging equipment, aka the wireless charging, with Texas and California obviously to be the first states to roll out these services. They confirmed FSD version 13 should go to a wide release about 2-3 weeks after the initial rollout if no issues are found. The report said Tesla's management does not see any real competition in the US or Europe from a cost and scale perspective, but in China, Tesla sees more entities taking a similar end-to-end vision-based approach.

2026年，随着"网络出租车"的推出，各公司将需要投资于服务、清洁和充电设备，也就是无线充电设备。德克萨斯州和加利福尼亚州显然会是首批推出这些服务的州。他们确认如果没有问题，FSD版本13将在最初发布后大约2-3周内广泛发布。报告指出，从成本和规模的角度来看，特斯拉的管理层认为在美国和欧洲没有真正的竞争对手，但在中国，特斯拉发现有更多公司采用类似的端到端视觉方式。

The third-generation dojo chips are expected in 2028, as the first gen chips could not compete with Nvidia on cost and performance, and the second gen for 2026 still can't compete on performance, but should achieve cost parity. And just a quick aside from me, that's obviously a high bar and confirmation that Tesla is looking to compete with Nvidia both on cost and performance. And as Elon likes to say, the third iteration of any project is usually the sweet spot, so gen 3 dojo in 2028, keep that in the back of your mind. They said the intelligence of optimists will continue to improve and should at some point reflect the rapid improvements in FSD over the past year.

第三代Dojo芯片预计将在2028年推出，因为第一代芯片在成本和性能上无法与Nvidia竞争，而2026年的第二代芯片虽然在性能上仍无法与之抗衡，但应该能实现成本上的平价。顺便提一下，这显然是一个很高的标准，说明特斯拉希望在成本和性能上都与Nvidia竞争。正如Elon常说的，任何项目的第三次迭代通常是最佳阶段，所以记住2028年的第三代Dojo芯片。他们表示，乐观主义者的智能将继续提高，并且在某个时候应该反映出过去一年FSD（全自动驾驶）技术的快速进步。

Tesla's strategy to sell to third-party customers is to sell the hardware and software together or to rent out the robot. And finally, megapack demand remains very strong, and the company is sticking to its guidance of more than 100% growth this year, implying around 27 gigawatt hours of production. And just know that number should be for only megapack production because Tesla's total energy storage deployed for this year is likely to be around 27 gigawatt hours. And I know that production and deployment are different, but it's a good enough proxy for this purpose. Just to show you through the first three quarters of this year, Tesla has already deployed 20.3 gigawatt hours of energy storage.

特斯拉出售给第三方客户的策略是将硬件和软件一起销售，或者出租机器人。此外，Megapack的需求依然非常强劲，公司坚持其超过100%增长的指导方针，这意味着今年的产量大约为27吉瓦时。需要注意的是，这个数字仅指Megapack的生产，因为特斯拉今年的总能量储存部署量可能也是大约27吉瓦时。我知道生产和部署是不同的概念，但在这里可以作为一个较好的参考。仅在今年的前三个季度，特斯拉已经部署了20.3吉瓦时的能量储存。

You have some other Chinese sources saying that Tesla is benchmarking the BYD Dolphin and the VW ID3 for this more affordable Model Q. They said the Model Q internally codenamed Redwood will be built on Tesla's latest vehicle platform, and compared to the Model 3, the new car will be 15% smaller and 30% lighter, and will use an LFP battery pack with 53 and 75 kilowatt hour capacities on both single and dual motor drive variants, with an estimated range of 500 kilometers or roughly 310 miles. This Chinese source went on to say the Model Q will be priced higher than BYD's Seagull and the ID3 starting at an estimated price of $19,200.

根据一些其他中文消息来源，特斯拉正在以比亚迪海豚和大众ID3为标杆，研发更实惠的Model Q。据称，Model Q内部代号为Redwood，将基于特斯拉最新的车辆平台打造。与Model 3相比，新车将小15%且轻30%，并将使用磷酸铁锂电池组，单电机和双电机版本电池容量分别为53千瓦时和75千瓦时，预计续航里程为500公里，约合310英里。该中文消息来源还表示，Model Q的价格将高于比亚迪的海鸥和大众ID3，起价预计为19,200美元。

But even if this reporting was accurate, that would likely be for the Chinese market. But as part of its report, Deutsche Bank has named Tesla as one of its top picks for 2025, and said Tesla is at the forefront of the technological and scale curve in terms of reaching practical autonomy. Competitors are trailing behind in resources while Tesla is also ahead in eventual cost per mile and fleet size. With massive compute resources, the bank says Tesla can train several end-to-end models within weeks, a capability that places it ahead of competitors. Nothing we don't already know, just highlighting more of Wall Street waking up to what's going on, as Deutsche Bank makes Tesla stock a standout recommendation for 2025.

即使这一报道是准确的，这很可能也是针对中国市场的。不过，德意志银行在其报告中将特斯拉列为2025年的首选之一，并指出特斯拉在实现实用自动驾驶技术和规模方面处于领先地位。竞争对手在资源上落后，而特斯拉在每英里成本和车队规模上也保持领先。凭借强大的计算资源，该银行表示特斯拉可以在几周内训练多个端到端模型，这一能力使其领先于竞争对手。这些情况其实并不新鲜，只是更多的华尔街人士开始注意到这一动向，而德意志银行更是将特斯拉股票视为2025年的突出推荐。

So to wrap this section up, just remember all of those reports are not really official from Tesla as far as we know. The reason being, we don't know exactly what Travis Axelrod did confirm, versus what Deutsche Bank is just speculating about based on their conversation. Either way though, this meeting has caused people like Gary Black to raise their Tesla price targets in Gary's case up to $380 from $300 before, based on increased conviction that Tesla's more affordable model will be launching in the first half of next year. And look, no shade to Gary here, but we've already already known this to be the case for a few months. It seems like Gary is just looking for a reason to increase his price target. But again, in fairness, if you want to use this report mainly as a reiteration of everything Tesla is working on, I do think that's fair.

总结一下这一部分，我们要记住这些报告在我们所知的范围内并不算是特斯拉的官方信息。原因是我们不确定Travis Axelrod究竟确认了什么，也不清楚德意志银行在他们的对话基础上做了哪些猜测。 不论如何，这次会议确实让像Gary Black这样的人将特斯拉的目标价格从之前的300美元提高到了380美元。原因是他更加相信特斯拉的更为实惠的车型将在明年上半年推出。不过，我们几个月前就知道了这一情况。因此，看上去Gary只是寻找一个理由来提高他的目标价格。但公平地说，如果你只是把这些报告当作重复特斯拉正在做的一切，我觉得这是合理的。

And some of the new data like possible pack size and drivetrain, and starting cost in China, just treat those as rumors for now. As expected, Elon's pay package story has blown up. We now have over 470 different sources talking about the topic. And because this is likely a case for the history books, it's being covered by both sides of the political spectrum. We have 69 sources leaning left and 55 leaning right. But look at the difference in the headlines. One article on the right was titled Democrat appointed judge blocks Musk from receiving compensation package approved by shareholders. Whereas one on the left said Musk's huge Tesla payday is blocked again, but at least he's got Trump.

一些新的数据，如可能的包装尺寸、驱动系统以及在中国的起始成本，目前仅仅视作传闻。正如预期那样，关于埃隆·马斯克薪酬方案的报道已经引起了广泛关注。现在有超过470个不同来源在讨论这个话题。因为这可能会成为史册中的一个案例，政治光谱的两边都在对此进行报道。我们有69个偏左的来源和55个偏右的来源。但看看标题的不同。一个偏右的文章标题为“民主党任命的法官阻止马斯克获得股东批准的薪酬方案”，而一个偏左的标题则是“马斯克的巨额特斯拉薪水再次被阻，但至少他还有特朗普”。

And what's pretty cool is for any news story, you can see these varying headlines and the political bias, thanks to the sponsor of this video, ground news. Ground news is a website and an app developed by a former NASA engineer on a mission to give readers an easy objective data driven way to stay informed on breaking news without any algorithms. And what's great for the holidays is now you can also give a subscription to ground news direct to anyone's inbox you'd like. And I like to think each subscription is a way to hold the media accountable. And as you know, it's a great way to support electrified right now. They're having their biggest sale of the year as they're offering electrified viewers 50% off their unlimited access vantage plan.

这段英文的大意是： 令人兴奋的是，通过视频的赞助商 Ground News，无论是哪种新闻故事，你都可以看到不同的标题和政治倾向。Ground News 是一个由前 NASA 工程师开发的网站和应用，旨在为读者提供一种轻松客观、基于数据的方式来获取突发新闻信息，而不依赖任何算法。节日期间特别棒的是，现在你可以把 Ground News 的订阅直接赠送给任何人的邮箱。我认为每个订阅都是一种让媒体对其行为负责的方式。而且现在是支持 Electrified 的绝佳时机，他们正在提供全年最大优惠，Electrified 的观众可以享受无限访问计划五折的优惠。

If you want to check it out, you can scan the QR code or use my link in the description to grab this discount for a limited time. And I know many of you are already enjoying ground news, ground news sources, all of the articles written on a topic and provides data about the political leaning, factuality, and ownership of the sources reporting, plus it's backed by three independent news monitoring organizations. And as I've been saying, the my news bias tool has been super useful for me to track my own news consumption data to ensure I'm not wasting time or being misled. So again, if you'd like to lock in that 50% discount, the QR code is on the screen and the link is below.

如果你想查看详情，可以扫描二维码或者使用描述中的链接来获取有限时间内的折扣。我知道你们中有很多人都在使用Ground News，它能够汇总一个主题下的所有文章，并提供有关报道来源的政治倾向、真实性和所有权的数据。此外，它还由三个独立的新闻监测组织支持。正如我一直所说的，我的新闻偏见工具对我来说非常有用，能够跟踪自己的新闻阅读数据，确保我不会浪费时间或被误导。所以，如果你想锁定50%的折扣，屏幕上有二维码，下面有链接。

AI driver shared this video of FSD 13 taking the right away around this FedEx truck. You'll see this car flash the high beams. But I think FSD is really reacting to that vehicle stopping, maybe not so much the actual high beams. So I did want to make that small clarification, but either way, it handled the situation incredibly well. Holmars also shared this video of FSD version 13.2 getting out from around this UPS truck if you missed it, it's one you have to see. you Brian from Futuraza gave us some more details about the cybercap. The engineers are most excited about the efficiency of the vehicle and that 5.5 miles per kilowatt hour could be taken as a worst case scenario. And something that's incredibly exciting, he said the way it's designed is to be built entirely by robots. Now maybe that's not the case right out of the gate, but in the long term that seems to be the goal.

AI 驾驶员分享了这段视频，展示了FSD 13如何从FedEx卡车周围顺利通过。你会看到这辆车闪了大灯。但我认为FSD实际上是在对那辆车停下做出反应，而不完全是因为大灯。因此，我想做一个小说明，但无论如何，它都处理得非常出色。Holmars也分享了一个FSD 13.2版本绕过UPS卡车的视频，如果你错过了，那是一个值得一看的视频。Futuraza的Brian提供了有关cybercap的更多细节。工程师们对车辆的效率感到非常兴奋，5.5英里/千瓦时可以被认为是最差情况下的表现。他还提到一个非常令人激动的消息，那就是这个设计的目标是完全由机器人制造。虽然可能一开始达不到这个目标，但从长远来看，这似乎是终极目标。

We talked about the small cabin, which means you need less stereo equipment to get the same great sound. And that also means there's less room to actually heat and cool so the HVAC should be more efficient. Plus the cybercap uses the solid roof so less heat will escape and using a glass roof would be heavy and expensive. So the solid roof will mean the heat pump will work better too. On the rear hatch that opens up into the trunk, the underneath is formed plastic so the inner part is actually molded and formed straight to it. Which means it's very easy to make and then it's also cheap and easy to replace. There will only be five switches in the entire cybercap for the windows, the door opening and the rear hatch. The engineers did not want window switches at all, they wanted it through the screen but NHTSA would not allow it.

我们谈到了小型客舱，这意味着你需要的立体声音响设备更少，但仍可以获得出色的音效。而且，这也意味着实际需要加热和冷却的空间更小，所以暖通空调系统（HVAC）应该更高效。此外，Cybercap使用的是实体车顶，因此热量流失会更少，而使用玻璃车顶会既重又昂贵。因此，实体车顶还能让热泵的效果更好。后挡板的下方是塑料模制成型，因此内部部分直接成型在上面，这意味着它的制造非常简单，而且更换也便宜且方便。整个Cybercap内只有五个开关，分别用于控制车窗、车门和后挡板。工程师们本来不想要车窗开关，想通过屏幕来控制，但国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）不允许。

We know the vehicle has no side mirrors which reduces a number of parts in complexity and the short sidewall of the wheels does actually improve the rolling resistance and the front wheels are smaller than the back wheels because the arrow hit is bigger on the front end of the car. Which means you can have slightly bigger wheels on the back of the car and have less of an arrow impact because the back of the cybercap is tapered in. The model 3 had around 380 pieces when it comes to manufacturing, the model Y with structural pack was down to 180 and the cybercap will have 80. It sounds like to start the cybercap is going to be a single motor front wheel drive variant. This is why the front does not open, the hood space is already pretty small and what helps in accidents is having a crumple zone. So when you have less frontal surface area you need to use more of it to be safe in a collision.

我们知道这辆车没有侧视镜，这减少了车辆部件的复杂性，车轮的短侧壁实际上可以改善滚动阻力。前轮比后轮小，因为车的前端受到的空气阻力较大，这意味着车尾可以使用稍大一些的轮子，并且减少空气阻力，因为Cybercap的尾部是收缩的。制造方面，Model 3大约有380个部件，Model Y带结构电池包减少到180个，而Cybercap将只有80个部件。起初，Cybercap 可能会推出前轮驱动的单电机版本。这也是前盖不打开的原因，前盖空间已经很小，在事故中提供保护的是缓冲区。所以，当前部表面积减少时，需要更多地利用它来确保碰撞安全。

Brian did confirm there will not be a human driven version, no wheel, no pedals, the cybercap is Robotaxi only, again this case should be closed as we've been saying for months. The engineers are hoping the cybercap is built with no rare earth elements in the motor and the cybercap will only need to handle speeds up to about 90 miles per hour as the highest speed limit at least in the US is 85. The back wall of the interior is indeed structural so that's not coming out. The cybercap will be battery agnostic so Tesla can put in any type of battery cell they want. The pack will only be semi-structural and it will be built around the world eventually. It should be around 1000 pounds lighter than a model 3 but he did get some conflicting answers on the specific weight reduction. The interior seats will be adjustable and when it comes to cleaning there are no door pockets, there's no induction phone charging because people may forget it, there is no glove box, there's only three pieces of glass, there's no gap in the seats where stuff can easily fall, so the cleaning of this vehicle should be about as easy as it gets. And the word is you will be able to bring your own entertainment into the cybercap but it's not clear how they'll do that. Again shout out to Brian for driving all of that way and getting us this information I hope you guys go over and show him some love, his youtube channel and X will be linked below. Elon did say there will ultimately be tens of millions of driver list Teslas throughout the world giving rides 24-7 and at this point I can confidently say it's going to happen way sooner than most people are expecting.

布莱恩确实确认了不会有人工驾驶版，也就是说，这辆"cybercap"没有方向盘和踏板，只能用作机器人出租车。我们已经讨论了几个月的这个话题，现在可以结束了。工程师们希望这辆"cybercap"的电动马达不含稀土元素，并且只需应对最高时速约90英里，因为在美国，最高限速至少是85英里每小时。车内后墙确实是结构性的，所以不会移除。"cybercap"对电池类型没有限制，特斯拉可以使用任何类型的电池单元。电池组只具备半结构性，并将在全球各地生产。它应该会比Model 3轻约1000磅，但布莱恩得到的关于具体减重的数据有些不一致。内座可以调节，清洁时没有车门储物格、没有无线充电器，以避免忘记拿走手机的问题，也没有手套箱，只有三块玻璃，座椅之间没有缝隙容易掉东西，因此车辆清洁应该非常简单。至于娱乐系统，人们可以自带，但具体实现方式尚不明确。再次感谢布莱恩长途跋涉为我们获取这些信息，希望你们去关注他的YouTube频道和X，链接会附在下面。埃隆还表示，未来全世界将有数千万辆无驾驶员特斯拉全天候提供乘车服务，而且这种情况将比大多数人预期的更早实现。

Joe Tettmeyer shared another video of Gigatexis showing the cybercap doing some more testing with a cyber truck with LiDAR following it around. Talking about the cybercap, Elon also said if the product is special enough no logo is needed. So obviously the best logo is no logo. A lot of people are missing this one, the CEO of CATL told Reuters in an interview he expects the business of developing and managing zero carbon electric grids aka battery storage to be 10 times larger than supplying EV batteries. So it's not just Elon that thinks the market for battery storage is massive. Robin Zhang also said CATL is aiming to build independent energy systems big enough to power a massive data center or even a city. We've talked about it many times this year but here's another anecdote on the point of the intersection of AI compute energy independence and battery storage and all three of those industries will be intersecting heavily with data centers. I'm guessing most of us did not have this on our bingo card for 2025 but the Wall Street Journal put out an opinion piece saying that Elon was actually underpaid when it comes to his 2018 pay package. Jeff Yas wrote, Judge McCormick based her ruling on a vague fairness standard that would effectively let one investor challenge a corporate transaction approved by a majority of shareholders. If so, Elon should countersue because at the time of the deal for his compensation plan in 2018, most option traders thought the pay package was worth around $3 billion. And as we know, the value of the pay package has since ballooned to well over $50 billion, reason being, Elon and the Tesla team have created that much value for shareholders. Jeff said we believe the board took advantage of Elon's overly optimistic enthusiasm for Tesla's future prospects and gave him less than he deserved. Since the deal in 2018, Tesla stock has appreciated 1700% a real long shot.

Joe Tettmeyer 分享了一段关于Gigatexis的视频，展示了带有激光雷达的电动卡车进行测试的情景。谈到这款"cybercap"产品，埃隆·马斯克表示，如果产品足够特别，就不需要标志，最好的标志就是没有标志。许多人对此未曾注意到，中国宁德时代的首席执行官在接受路透社采访时说，开发和管理零碳电网（即电池储能）业务的规模预计将是供应电动车电池的十倍。所以，不仅仅是埃隆认为电池储能市场巨大。Robin Zhang 还表示，宁德时代计划建设足够为大型数据中心甚至一个城市供电的独立能源系统。我们今年已经多次讨论过这个问题，人工智能计算、能源独立和电池储能三大行业将与数据中心紧密结合。可能大多数人没想到这一变化会在2025年出现在我们的预想中，但《华尔街日报》发表了一篇评论文章，说埃隆在2018年的薪酬方案中实际上被低估了。Jeff Yas 写道，法官 McCormick 基于一个含糊的公平性标准做出判决，这实际上允许单个投资者质疑多数股东通过的企业交易。如果是这样，埃隆应该反诉，因为在2018年酬金计划交易时，大多数期权交易者认为该薪酬方案价值约30亿美元。正如我们所知，该薪酬方案的价值后来暴涨至超过500亿美元，原因是埃隆和特斯拉团队为股东创造了巨大价值。Jeff 认为董事会利用了埃隆对特斯拉未来前景过于乐观的热情，并给予了他低于应得的薪水。自2018年交易以来，特斯拉的股票已经上涨了1700%，真是一次遥不可及的成功。

There was a new study published in Nature Energy today titled Dynamic Cycling Enhances Battery Lifetime. New research suggests these batteries once thought to have short lived inherently expendable shelf lives may actually last significantly longer than expected. In some cases, properly cared for EVs may even outlive their fossil fuel counterparts. EV batteries may actually last about a third longer than previous forecasts. The shocking disparity in battery life estimates stems from fundamentally unrealistic testing environments that became industry standard.

今天在《自然能源》上发表了一项新研究，题为《动态循环增强电池寿命》。新的研究表明，以前被认为寿命短、容易耗尽的电池实际上可能比预期的要耐用得多。在某些情况下，妥善保养的电动汽车甚至可能比化石燃料汽车寿命更长。电动汽车电池的寿命可能比之前的预测长大约三分之一。电池寿命估计之间令人震惊的差异源于一些基本上不切实际的测试环境，这些环境已经成为行业标准。

Basically, the industry has not been testing EV batteries the right way. They said to our surprise, real driving with frequent acceleration, breaking that charges the batteries a bit, stopping to pop into a store and letting the batteries rest for hours at a time, helps batteries last longer than we had thought based on industry standard lab tests. Which makes sense, in the lab effectively they were just taking batteries from 100 to 0, charging them up from 0 to 100 and repeating that cycle, but that's not how it plays out in the real world. The researchers tested 92 commercial lithium-ion EV batteries over two years across four different types of driving profiles.

基本上，行业一直以来没有用正确的方式测试电动车电池。他们表示，令人意外的是，频繁加速、刹车（这种刹车可以为电池略微充电）、停车进商店、让电池休息数小时的实际驾驶方式，可以让电池的寿命比传统行业标准实验室测试所认为的更长。这是有道理的，因为在实验室中，他们实际上只是把电池从100%的电量放到0，再从0充到100，然后重复这个循环，但这种方式并不符合现实世界中的使用情况。研究人员对92块商用锂离子电动车电池进行了两年的测试，涉及四种不同类型的驾驶方式。

So, doing some testing using these dynamic charging habits like we see in the real world resulted in an increased battery lifetime by up to 38%. And get this, though many drivers believe rapidly accelerating and breaking degrades EV batteries faster than steady driving, the researchers found a correlation in their data suggesting sharp short accelerations may actually lead to slower battery degradation. I'd love to dive further into this study, but I'll be honest, my throat is reaching its max capacity for the day, but I will have the study linked below.

在进行了一些测试后，使用这些如同我们在现实世界中看到的动态充电习惯，电池寿命增加了多达38%。而且，许多司机相信快速加速和急刹车会比平稳驾驶更快地损耗电动汽车电池，不过研究人员在他们的数据中发现，短暂的快速加速可能实际上会减缓电池的损耗。我非常想深入研究这项研究，但说实话，我今天的嗓子快坚持不住了，不过我会在下面附上研究的链接。

Tesla stock closed the day at $389.79 up 0.15% while the Nasdaq was down 0.62%. The volume was about 2% higher than the average the past 30 days. You may have seen Rivian was up over 11%, at least part of that was because benchmark securities initiated coverage with an $18 price target saying Rivian has a massive market opportunity over the next few years. And Lucid was up over 10% on the day, likely because the gravity has entered production.

特斯拉的股票以389.79美元收盘，上涨了0.15%，而纳斯达克指数下跌了0.62%。成交量比过去30天的平均值高出约2%。你可能注意到Rivian的股价上涨了超过11%，这至少部分是因为Benchmark Securities给出了18美元的目标价并认为Rivian在未来几年内有巨大的市场机会。Lucid的股价当天也上涨了超过10%，可能是因为其Gravity车型开始生产。

Don't forget, check out ground news links below, maybe gift it to a family member or a friend if you're interested, they are running their biggest sale of the year. Thank you all for bearing with me today in my low energy, hopefully I will feel better as the week goes on. Hope you have a wonderful day, please like the video, if you did, you can find me on X-linked below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.

别忘了，在下方查看Ground News的链接。如果感兴趣，可以把它作为礼物送给家人或朋友，他们正在进行年度最大促销。谢谢大家今天在我状态不佳时的支持，希望随着本周的进展我能恢复精神。祝你有美好的一天，请点赞这个视频。你可以在下方找到我的X账号链接，特别感谢所有支持我的Patreon会员。