2024 in Review: Energy

For me, I think there's really three buckets you can look at to invest in nuclear power. It's folks who own and operate existing nuclear sites. So think about these as the utility companies we talked about earlier. You can have folks who play in the supply chain. So whether that's folks like BWX technology to make fuel components, that sort of thing or the uranium producers, which is an interesting segment of the market where there's potential kind of crunch there. Or you can look at folks who are developing reactors. And if it's me, I'm really looking in those first two buckets, folks that have operating businesses today that have been doing this for quite a long time.

对我来说，我认为投资核电可以分为三类。第一类是拥有和运营现有核电站的公司。可以把这些公司看作我们之前提到的公用事业公司。第二类是供应链中的公司，比如生产燃料部件的BWX技术公司或者铀生产商，这个市场是一个有潜在紧张的有趣领域。第三类是开发反应堆的公司。如果是我的话，我更倾向于前两类公司，即那些目前正在运营业务并且在这个领域有较长经验的公司。

I'm Mary Long and that's Nick Syple, an analyst for our full Canada service and an energy industry watcher. As we close out the year, we're sitting down with a number of analysts to look back on key industries to review what's happened and what might be coming in 2025. To kick us off, my colleague Ricky Mulvie caught up with Nick to look at the energy sector. To talk about AI's insatiable need for power, how the US has gotten better at getting oil out of the ground, growing interest in small nuclear reactors, why investors have soured on renewable stocks and some other stories that Nick's keeping an eye on in the year to come.

我是玛丽·朗，那位是尼克·西普尔，他是我们加拿大服务全面分析的分析师，也是能源行业观察者。随着这一年的结束，我们与多位分析师进行会谈，回顾关键行业，了解过去发生的事情以及2025年可能出现的趋势。首先，我的同事里基·穆尔維与尼克对话，一起探讨能源行业，谈论人工智能对电力无尽的需求，美国在石油开采方面的进步，对小型核反应堆的兴趣日益增长，为什么投资者对可再生能源股票失去了兴趣，以及尼克在来年重点关注的其他一些话题。

As we wrap up the year, we're looking back on some industries on the show. And for energy, one of the industries that has dominated the S&P top performing stocks of the year, even though you may not have heard about it as much, we're bringing in Nick Syple to talk about it. Nick, what are your top energy headlines for 2024? Thanks, Ricky. Great to be here. I'd say really that the big energy headline this year, the headlines that dominated everything this year is AI and how is that related to energy at all? It's really this is the year energy demand or expectations around electricity demand really went straight vertical. I think a lot of folks don't realize energy consumption in the US hasn't really increased that much in the past 20 years, up about 5% since 2005. Now we've got energy consumption in user demand from AI expected to increase rapidly, both from AI and other data center applications. Just training an AI model uses more energy than 100 households do in a year and some of these next generation AI data centers might need as much power as some big cities. Estimates of AI energy consumption are that it's expected that more than double by 2026 could triple by 2030. That would take data centers responsibility for energy demand from 2% that it was in 2022 up to 6% or more in the coming years. That doesn't sound like much, but again, a 4% or 5% point increase in energy demand is what we've seen in the past 20 years. This is just the beginning of what we expect AI energy demand to drive and that's what’s been driving lots of activity in the energy space this year and some of the companies we're going to talk about.

随着今年接近尾声，我们回顾了节目中提到的一些行业。其中，能源行业虽然可能没被广泛提及，但在S&P年度表现最佳的股票中占据主导地位。为此，我们请来了尼克·赛普尔来谈论这个话题。 尼克，你对2024年能源行业的头条新闻有什么看法？ 谢谢，瑞奇。很高兴在这里。我想说，今年真正大的能源新闻是人工智能（AI），而大家可能会问，AI怎么与能源有关呢？今年是能源需求或者对电力需求预期直线上升的一年。 很多人可能不知道，美国的能源消耗在过去20年中并没有大幅增加，自2005年以来仅增长了约5%。而现在，由于AI和其他数据中心应用的用户需求，能源消耗预计将迅速增长。光是训练一个AI模型所用的能源比100户家庭一年的用量还要多。一些下一代的AI数据中心可能需要的电力和某些大城市的用量相当。预计AI的能源消耗到2026年可能会翻倍，到2030年可能会增长至三倍。这将使数据中心对能源需求的贡献从2022年的2%提高到未来几年可能的6%或更多。虽然听起来不多，但要知道，4%到5%的能源需求增长是我们在过去20年中所见到的。这仅仅是我们预期AI能源需求驱动力的开始，这是今年在能源领域驱动大量活动的原因，以及我们将要谈论的一些公司。

There's a pretty close correlation between economic growth and energy usage when you look at developing and modern economies. But when we think about the grid right now, one of the great questions that a lot of these big tech companies are trying to figure out is can we power these the needs of artificial intelligence right now where the grid stands? Is it ready for the demands of AI? As of today, no, we need additional energy capacity. You've seen Elon Musk talk about this. You've seen Sam Altman from OpenAI talk about this. You mentioned all the big tech companies rushing to try to acquire energy to meet their long term power demands just over the past year and a half. You look at electric utilities, estimates. They've doubled their forecasts for the additional power they're going to need over the coming decade. And that's really again, creating incremental demand seeing folks rush to secure energy supply or that's nuclear, natural gas or others.

在观察发展中国家和现代经济体时，经济增长和能源使用之间存在着非常密切的关联。然而，当我们考虑当前的电网时，一个重要问题是，现有电网能否支持人工智能的需求？它是否已经为AI的需求做好准备？当前的答案是否定的，我们需要增加能源容量。Elon Musk和OpenAI的Sam Altman都提到过这一点。你还能看到，过去一年半里，各大科技公司都在抢购能源以满足它们的长期电力需求。电力公司的预测也已经翻倍，他们估计未来十年需要额外增加的电力会大幅上升。这引发了额外的需求，人们争相确保各种能源供应，无论是核能、天然气还是其他能源。

Energy taking the top spot. Many of the top spots in the top five best performing stocks of the year. Three of them, Vistra constellation in GE, Vernova. Vistra has the top spot and this is a power generator with the capacity to serve 20 million homes. Right now it serves about five million. This company plays in natural gas, coal, solar, also has a few nuclear plants. And you may be surprised listening to the show that the top performer in the S&P 500 is in fact a utility company. So Nick, why have investors become so excited about Vistra over the past year? Yes, you mentioned Vistra energy, constellation energy, both of these companies, independent power producers. Meaning these are companies that compete in the competitive energy markets that's as compared to your regulated utility that earns a regulated rate. Obviously this expectation of increased electricity demand for folks with existing generation as demand goes up, expect them to benefit.

能源行业排名第一。今年表现最好的前五只股票中，有三只来自能源行业：Vistra、Constellation和GE Vernova。Vistra位居榜首，这是一家拥有足够容量为2000万户家庭供电的发电公司，目前服务约500万户家庭。该公司涉足天然气、煤炭、太阳能，同时也拥有一些核电站。可能你听到节目时会感到惊讶，今年标准普尔500指数中的表现最佳股票竟然是家电力公司。那么，Nick，为什么过去一年投资者对Vistra这么感兴趣呢？ 是的，你提到的Vistra能源和Constellation能源，这两家公司都是独立发电厂，即在竞争性能源市场中运作的公司，与按照监管费率获得收益的传统公用事业公司不同。很明显，随着对电力需求的预期增加，拥有现有发电能力的公司有望从中受益。

Also I think importantly, these folks are two of the largest nuclear power generators in the US constellation the number one in competitive nuclear power generation, Vistra number two. And those assets have become significantly more valuable in the past year. You've seen existing plants get licensed extensions where they can last for another 20 or 30 more years. You've also seen inflation reduction act subsidies that have helped these companies produce more nuclear power and keep some of these plants online. And there's been growing demand again, as I mentioned for new nuclear capacity, both these companies have existing sites that can expand their production. A lot of headlines this year, Microsoft working with constellation energy to bring back online to Three Mile Island nuclear plants.

这段话的大意是： 我认为重要的是，这些公司是美国最大的核电生产商之一。Constellation是核电竞争力排名第一的公司，Vistra排名第二。这些资产在过去一年中变得显著更有价值。你会注意到，现有的核电站获得了延长许可，它们可以再运行20到30年。通货膨胀削减法案也给予了补贴，帮助这些公司生产更多的核电并维持一些核电站的运转。同时，如前所述，对新核电容量的需求也在不断增长。这两家公司都有现有的场地，可以扩大生产。今年有很多头条新闻，比如微软与Constellation Energy合作，重新启动三里岛核电站的计划。

So these existing nuclear facilities aren't valuable just for the power of the plants that exist can generate, but they can be upgraded. And also you can add a distinct capacity over time. So really these companies are direct beneficiaries from this expectations for increased electricity demand over time. And that's part of why those stocks have moved up into the right. Yeah, you keyed in on the expectations. It's not the business performance that has dramatically changed quite yet for a lot of these energy companies. This is an expectations game where investors are getting really excited about these companies. Do you think this excitement is warranted though?

这些现有的核电设施的价值不仅仅在于它们当前能够产生的电力，还在于它们可以进行升级。此外，随着时间的推移，还可以增加额外的产能。因此，这些公司真正受益于预期中的电力需求增长。这也是为什么这些公司的股票在上涨的原因之一。正如你所提到的，这更多是一场关于预期的博弈。对于这些能源公司来说，业务表现还没有发生显著变化，而是投资者对这些公司的期待变得很高涨。你认为这种高涨的期待是有道理的吗？

Well, it depends how much of this energy demand materializes over the long term. So certainly lots of expectations about what we could see from AI. However, there could be more efficiency or there could be fewer data centers than expected. However, these nuclear assets are super valuable and scarce. If you value these companies at replacement value for these plants, you could argue there's still more upside for the companies. But at the end of the day, they're operating in a commodity market that is difficult to predict. But I do think it highlights just how valuable these existing energy assets are. That's why these companies have performed so well. Now, can they maintain that performance over the long term? You're not going to see utilities return hundreds of percent a year in a normal market environment. Let's talk about some of the ways we get energy for a little bit.

好的，这要看长期来看这些能源需求会有多少实现。AI的潜力让我们充满期待。然而，也可能出现更高的效率，或者数据中心的数量比预期的少。不过，这些核能资产非常珍贵而稀缺。如果按这些工厂的重置价值来评估这些公司，可以说公司还有更多的上涨空间。但最终来说，它们是在一个难以预测的大宗商品市场中运营。不过，我确实认为这突显了现有能源资产的价值。这就是为什么这些公司表现如此出色。那么，他们能长期保持这种表现吗？在正常市场环境下，不可能看到公用事业公司每年有数百百分比的回报。我们来聊聊一些获取能源的方法。

Number one is oil. In oil in the United States hit records this year, our nation's crude output rose to about 13 million barrels per day. According to Bloomberg, that's about 50% more than what Saudi Arabia is putting out. This is also at a time of increased efficiency. This record number is being done with less than one third of the rigs that were needed a decade ago. Looking at this big picture, Nick, how has the US become so much more efficient in getting oil out of the ground? Yeah. I think the short answer really is technology, learning innovation. We're 15 plus years into the shale revolution here in the US and these companies, both because of the conditions we saw in the market in the late 2010s and just because of this natural efficiency, these companies had to get more productive. You see things like longer laterals drilled for wells. You see difference changes in fracking fluid, fracking multiple wells at once, better drilling technology utilizing automation.

第一是石油。今年，美国的石油产量创下了新高，我们国家的原油产量上升到了每天约1300万桶。据彭博社报道，这比沙特阿拉伯的产量多约50%。这同时也是在效率提高的时期实现的。这个创纪录的数字是用不到十年前所需钻机数量的三分之一实现的。从整体来看，尼克，美国是如何在石油开采上变得如此高效的呢？嗯，我觉得简单答案就是技术、学习和创新。在美国，我们已经进入页岩革命的15年以上，这些公司由于市场在2010年代后期的状况以及自然效率的推动，不得不提高生产力。你会看到，像钻井的水平井段更长，压裂液的改变，同时对多个井进行压裂，利用自动化的更好钻井技术等。

These companies are really, really good at pulling oil and gas out of the ground and they've gotten better and better year after year. At some point, we will hit the limit of this efficiency, but it's really been impressive the ability to continue to grow production in the US. We've heard calls for peak shale year after year after year. The production keeps going up and to the right. Yeah, there is a limited supply of oil in the ground, but the sure is a lot of it. Looking at these efficiencies, it costs less money to get oil out of the ground to break even price going down. Is this a trend that you expect to continue for the long term? Well, I mean, the growth can't continue forever.

这些公司在从地下提取石油和天然气方面非常出色，而且年复一年地不断提高效率。尽管我们终会遇到效率极限，但美国的产量增长确实令人印象深刻。我们多年来一直听到关于页岩油产量达到顶峰的预言，但产量却持续上升。虽然地下的石油供应有限，但储备确实不少。从这些效率来看，开采石油的成本降低了，达到盈亏平衡的价格在下降。你是否认为这种趋势会长期持续？当然，增长不可能永远持续下去。

There's a certain point in which all the oil and gas that is in these rocks is squeezed out. But I think the shale revolution, the importance of the US as an energy producer has been changed for what I think will be a long time. I think the balance of power and oil and gas has been changed such that OPEC isn't quite as important as they've been in the past. They still are very important and whenever they turn this big, it's back on, we'll see some impact on price. But I think the US is in a much better position energy security-wise than it was 20 plus years ago. I don't expect that to change anytime soon. Can we maintain this level of growth forever? Probably not. I think the US is positioned as a significant oil producer, unlikely to change anytime soon. Let's move on to nuclear.

在某个节点上，这些岩石中的石油和天然气会被完全挤出。但我认为页岩革命已经从根本上改变了美国作为能源生产国的重要性，而且这种变化可能会持续很长时间。我认为石油和天然气的力量平衡已经改变，以至于欧佩克不像过去那样重要了。尽管他们仍然非常重要，每当他们采取重大行动时，我们仍会看到价格受到影响。但我认为，美国在能源安全方面的地位比20多年前要好得多。我预计这种情况在短时间内不会改变。我们能永远保持这种增长水平吗？可能不能。不过我认为美国作为重要石油生产国的地位在短期内不太可能改变。现在，我们来谈谈核能。

There's been a lot of investor interest. Stocks for these companies have done quite well this year. And especially in the SMR space, the small modular reactor space, two companies that play here are NewScale and Oklo. Both of these have seen a lot of interest. We had the CEO of Oklo on the show earlier this year, Jacob DeWitt. And Oklo is up almost 100% over the past year. Also a name in the chairman seat you might know with Sam Altman, NewScale, which is appropriately ticker. SMR is up more than 700%. Here's the kicker though. These kind of look a little bit like biotech companies to me, Nick, where they're not generating revenue and a lot of this is expectations over an exciting new technology.

近年来，投资者对这些公司的兴趣大增。它们的股票在今年表现相当不错。尤其是在小型模块化反应堆领域，两家公司备受关注：NewScale和Oklo。两家公司都吸引了大量的投资兴趣。今年早些时候，我们节目曾邀请Oklo的CEO Jacob DeWitt。他们的股价在过去一年中上涨了近100%。此外，担任NewScale董事长的还有Sam Altman，其股票代码为SMR的公司，股价上涨了超过700%。不过，值得注意的是，这些公司有点类似于生物技术公司，暂时都没有产生收入，而大部分的投资是在寄希望于这些令人兴奋的新技术。

So neither of these have a fully operational small modular reactor up and running. Right now as we stand at the end of 2024, what are the challenges these companies are facing getting these off the ground or on the ground? You don't want them in the air. That's right. If we start having them in the air, we've really had an incredible breakthrough. Yeah, I mean, it's really all of the above regulatory challenges, permitting, lack of skilled labor, really the cost. I mean, NewScale had been, you know, they're the company that has the first, you know, small modular reactor that's approved on the market. They had plans to deploy in 2026.

所以，这两家公司都没有一个完全运作的小型模块化反应堆。目前，截至2024年底，他们在启动这些项目时面临哪些挑战呢？当然，你不希望这些反应堆在空中运行。如果它们能在空中运行，那真的是一个了不起的突破。是的，我的意思是，这主要包括监管挑战、许可、技术工人短缺以及成本问题。例如，NewScale公司是市场上第一个获得批准的小型模块化反应堆的公司，他们本计划在2026年投入使用。

But last year, their partners pulled out because the cost estimates came in significantly above what they, I think, was 50% or more above the original plans. And I think it's just really highlights a challenge with these companies. You mentioned, you know, NewScale and Okla, both of these are companies that have plans to build reactors are in certain stages of the regulatory process. But at the end of the day, these reactors are still on paper.

但去年，他们的合作伙伴退出了，因为成本估算大大超出了预期，据我所知，高出原计划50%或更多。我认为这确实突显了这些公司面临的一个挑战。你提到的NewScale和Okla，这两家公司都有建造反应堆的计划，并处于法规审批的不同阶段。但归根结底，这些反应堆目前还仅仅是纸上的计划。

And if you think about these, you know, on paper designs, they can be simple. They can be small. They can be cheap. They can be light. They can be easy to be built quickly. But you start to run into some of these other challenges as you deploy these reactors. And often you see these things come in behind schedule delayed. And this has been something from, you know, the onset of nuclear power in the 50s on to today.

如果你考虑这些纸上设计的反应堆，它们可以很简单、很小、很便宜、很轻，并且很容易快速建造。但是，当你开始实际部署这些反应堆时，你会遇到一些其他挑战。通常你会发现这些项目会落后于计划、出现延迟。这种情况从上世纪50年代核电开始发展时就已经存在，一直到今天都是如此。

We just saw it in the past year or so in Georgia, we saw a Vocal Unit 3 and 4 come online. These are the first big large scale reactors built in the U.S. in a number of decades. They had originally, those projects started in 2009, have been planned to be done seven years ago. It cost $14 billion, came in in the past couple of years at over $30 billion.

在过去的一年左右，我们看到佐治亚州上线了Vocal 3号和4号核电机组。这是美国几十年来首次建立的大规模反应堆。这些项目最初于2009年启动，原计划在七年前完成。项目的预计预算为140亿美元，但在过去几年中成本超过了300亿美元。

And so the gap between, you know, these plans for nuclear reactors and actually getting to construction are quite wide. And we'll see whether Okla or NewScale or any number of companies that remain private are able to get there. But I think a lot of what you're seeing with the price moves today aren't about the operating company. It's that, oh my gosh, we've got two companies available to invest in that are operating in this small modular reactor space and let's rush out to gobble them up.

这些核反应堆计划与实际动工之间的差距很大。而我们会看到Okla、NewScale或其他保持私营状态的公司能否成功做到这一点。但我认为，今天价格波动很大程度上与运营公司无关，而是因为“天啊，我们有两家可供投资的小型模块化反应堆企业，所以赶紧抢购吧。”

I, for one, am skeptical about whether we actually get to operation and, you know, I gave you a couple of reasons, you know, the cost of these things end up coming in significantly higher in the real world than they do on paper. Yeah. But if you have that Sam Altman tech money going behind you, he might want to operate some of those data centers with small modular reactors. I got, I got my string out in my corkboard. I can see how this works out even if it comes in a little bit over budget, Nick.

我个人对此持怀疑态度，不确定我们能否顺利运作。你知道，我已经给了你几个理由，比如说这些项目的实际成本往往远高于纸面上的预算。不过，如果你有像Sam Altman那样的科技资金支持，他可能会想用小型模块堆来运行一些数据中心。尽管可能会超出预算，我还是能够理解这个计划是如何运作的。

With your skepticism, do you think we'll see any small modular reactors running in the next, let's say three to five years in the United States? Yes, in the United States, and not not commercially, but we will see at least one running in the U.S. in the next five years, the Department of Defense has as the project Paylay micro reactor project is going to be the first micro reactor deployed in North America. It's currently under construction here in the U.S. right now and is expected to be completed by 2026.

根据你的怀疑态度，你觉得我们会在未来三到五年内看到美国有小型模块化反应堆运行吗？是的，在美国，不是商业运营，但我们会在未来五年内看到至少一个在美国运行。国防部的Paylay微型反应堆项目将是北美部署的第一个微型反应堆。目前它正在美国建设中，预计将在2026年前完成。

That's a, you know, Department of Defense program. If we look in North America in general, the earliest deployment of small modular reactors is expected to come in in Canada with Ontario power generation. They're building the BWR X 300 reactor, which is, which is built by GE Hitachi, which is a subsidiary of GE Vrenova, which you mentioned earlier. That's they're already building doing some of the pre construction work, building some of the components that will go into that and construction is going to start next year.

那是一个国防部的项目。在北美地区，预计加拿大会最早部署小型模块化反应堆，这将在安大略省的电力公司进行。他们正在建造BWR X 300反应堆，这个反应堆由GE日立公司建造，而GE日立是你之前提到的GE Vrenova的子公司。他们已经开始进行一些前期建设工作，正在制造将用于该反应堆的部分组件，预计施工将在明年开始。

The plan is for that plant to be operational in late 2028 or early 2029. So that just, you know, sneaks us under that, that, that three to five year timeline. Oklo has talked about having a commercial reactor available by 2027. If everything goes exactly according to plan, they could, they could make that happen.

计划是让那家工厂在2028年末或2029年初投入运营。所以这刚好符合三到五年的时间范围。Oklo曾表示计划在2027年前提供一座商业反应堆。如果一切按计划进行，他们可能能够实现这个目标。

I've laid out my skepticism for that. But I think there's a couple plants under construction today, both, you know, the military one I talked about, Project Pele and this, this one in Canada that should get to market by 2028 and that are under construction. So, you know, not, not totally looking down on this market, but, but just some of these companies that don't have operations or don't have, you know, the shovel in the ground today. It's a long way to go to get there in the next three to five years. That's for sure.

我已经表达了我对这一点的怀疑。但我认为目前有几个项目正在建设中，比如我提到的军用项目Pele计划以及加拿大的这个项目，它们预计在2028年投放市场，并且现在正在施工中。所以，我并不是完全看不上这个市场，只是对一些目前没有开始运营或尚未开工的公司持保留态度。未来三到五年要达到目标，还有很长的路要走，这一点是毫无疑问的。

You're not trying to dismiss the difficulty of nuclear science. I get where you're coming from. There's big tech companies mentioned Sam Altman, but there's other big tech companies that are very interested in nuclear energy. How are you seeing them get in this game? We've seen lots of deals this year and it's kind of, you can put them into two buckets. It's securing capacity from existing nuclear plants.

你并不是想轻视核科学的难度，我明白你的意思。提到了一些大型科技公司，比如Sam Altman，但还有其他对核能非常感兴趣的大公司。你怎么看待他们进入这个领域？今年我们看到了很多交易，可以分成两类：一类是从现有核电厂获得产能。

You had Amazon make a deal with talent energy for $650 million to acquire, you know, nuclear energy from their existing plants, Microsoft in the kind of existing plant bucket I mentioned earlier made a deal with constellation energy to drop power from their existing plants both reactivating the three mile island, a nuclear reactor, but also, you know, having a power matching agreement to power their data centers with the nuclear power there. But we're also seeing, you know, activity by big tech to build new nuclear reactors or at least explore that type of activity. And this is using utility partners primarily. So Amazon has a deal to explore deploying small modular reactors with energy Northwest and Washington state also has a relationship with with Dominion energy that's exploring a small modular reactor in Virginia.

你与亚马逊达成了一项价值6.5亿美元的协议，从Talent Energy获得核能，用于他们现有的核电厂。微软也在我之前提到的现有电厂领域与Constellation Energy达成了一项协议，从他们的现有电厂获取电力，不仅重新启动了三哩岛的核反应堆，还与核电厂达成了一项电力匹配协议，以核能为他们的数据中心供电。此外，我们也看到大型科技公司正在探索建造新的核反应堆的活动，主要是与公用事业合作伙伴合作。亚马逊有一项协议，研究与Energy Northwest合作在华盛顿州部署小型模块化反应堆，同时在弗吉尼亚州与Dominion Energy合作，研究一种小型模块化反应堆。

Amazon also invested in X energy, which is another one of these small modular reactor design companies. Google also invests in a small modular reactor design company, Kairos power. And then also in the world of kind of building new nuclear reactors just this week, meta announced that they're going to put out a request for proposal to build one to four gigawatts of new nuclear generation capacity in the US by the 2030s.

亚马逊还投资了X能源，这是一家小型模块化反应堆设计公司。谷歌也投资了一家小型模块化反应堆设计公司，名为Kairos Power。而在建造新型核反应堆的领域，就在本周，Meta宣布他们将发出一份提案请求，希望在2030年代于美国建设一到四吉瓦的新核能发电容量。

So whether it's building new capacity or trying to lock up existing nuclear capacity, you've got all the big techs really swirling around for lots of reasons. It's not just powering AI. It's that these companies have taken the climate pledge and in order to, you know, power these facilities in a way that's carbon neutral. Nuclear is really the only available way to do that given that you need to run these things 24 seven and the intense power needs.

所以，无论是建设新的核能设施还是试图确保现有核能设施的稳定，大型科技公司出于多种原因在积极参与。这不仅仅是为了给人工智能供电。这些公司已经承诺对气候负责，并为了实现碳中和的运营目标。考虑到需要全天候运行和巨大的用电需求，核能实际上是唯一能够满足这些要求的方法。

So, you know, lots of lots of demand from big tech and you're seeing lots of money getting 30 around almost panic spending, I would say, pan expending that that sometimes isn't a good thing. I'm imagining though, you know, there could be some shareholder calls, you know, a few years from now, you know what, over here at meta, we've learned that it's really difficult to store nuclear waste. That was not something we've been able to figure out over the past few years. So we've had to turn to a new energy source. This is something I'm imagining. And also to be clear, I'm optimistic about the future of nuclear. I think it's a really cool technology.

所以你知道，大型科技公司有很多需求，而你也会看到很多资金以近乎恐慌的方式投入市场。我会说，这种恐慌性支出有时并不是一件好事。不过我想象，也许几年后，会有投资者电话会议，比如说，在Meta这边，我们发现存储核废料真的很难，这是我们过去几年无法解决的问题，所以我们不得不转向新的能源。这只是我的想象。同时需要说明的是，我对核能的未来是乐观的，我认为这是一项非常酷的技术。

And it is, as you said, if you're trying to achieve carbon neutrality, it's a good place to get energy. So let's say if big tech can't accomplish their nuclear dreams to power these cloud servers, these AI chatbots that are sucking up so much energy, you mentioned the power earlier, it takes 10 times more energy to do a chat, cheapy T query than it does to do a Google search. So if big tech can't get nuclear up and running, where would you expect them to turn? Well, I really think it's an all of the above, regardless of if you get nuclear up and running.

正如你所说的，如果试图实现碳中和，那这确实是一个获得能源的好方法。那么假设大型科技公司无法实现利用核能为大量消耗能量的云服务器和AI聊天机器人供电的梦想，你提到过这些设备的耗电量，一个ChatGPT查询需要的能量是一次谷歌搜索的十倍。那么如果大科技公司无法成功使用核能，你认为他们会转向哪里呢？我认为无论核能是否可行，他们都会考虑所有可用的能源方案。

They've been some of the largest deployers of renewables over the past several years. You're going to see companies turn to natural gas in the near term because of what I mentioned about needing a capacity 24 seven without any of this intermittency. So I mean, 2024 is supposed to be the year. If things finish out the way we started the year, it's going to be the year where we have the most new natural gas generation announced in the US since 2017. We've got more than 200 gas units at various stages of development across the US.

他们在过去几年中是可再生能源的最大部署者之一。在近期，因为我提到的24小时全天候需求以及没有间歇性的问题，你会看到公司转向使用天然气。所以我指的是，2024年预计将是关键的一年。如果一切像今年初那样进行，那么2024年将成为自2017年以来，美国宣布最多新天然气发电的年份。在美国各地有超过200个天然气发电项目处于不同的发展阶段。

So this increase in energy demand isn't just going to fall on building new nuclear plants. We're not going to be able to solve it just with new natural gas plants. And we're not going to be able to do it just with renewables. I think there's really growth everywhere. And natural gas is one of those areas where we've seen a return of interest in the past year or so. This is another one of those kind of segments of energy where folks have continued to call a peak demand for the commodity. And it continues to go up and up and up as demand surprises. As we talk about nuclear, you mentioned your skepticism towards some of the companies that aren't, that don't have small modular reactors going.

因此，这种能源需求的增加并不仅仅依赖于新建的核电站。我们不能仅仅通过新的天然气发电厂来解决这个问题，也不能仅仅依靠可再生能源。我认为各个领域都在增长。而天然气是我们在过去一年左右重新产生兴趣的领域之一。在这种能源领域中，人们一直在预测这种商品的需求高峰，但需求却不断超出预期地上升。谈到核能时，你提到了对那些尚未开发小型模块化反应堆的公司的怀疑。

But last year, you also pitched BWX technologies for our stock March Madness game, which you won. That's all remind the listeners or those who don't know, Nick won stock March Madness with this company, which supplies fuel for nuclear submarines in the US Navy. Company also makes real revenue and is profitable. Another one where expectations have changed for the company is more interest in nuclear comes in. So with investors who are also excited about this space, do you recommend, should they look to the more established companies? Should they look at the startup? Should they take a basket approach?

但在去年，你还为我们的股票疯狂三月比赛推荐了BWX技术公司，并且你赢了。让我们提醒听众或那些不知道的人，Nick凭借这家公司赢得了股票疯狂三月。这家公司为美国海军的核潜艇提供燃料，并且实际上盈利且有真实收入。随着对核能的兴趣增加，人们对这家公司的期望也在改变。所以，对于那些对这个领域感到兴奋的投资者，你建议他们应该关注更成熟的公司吗？还是应该关注初创公司？或者应该采取组合投资的方法呢？

Yeah, for me, I think there's really three buckets you can look at to invest in nuclear power. It's folks who own and operate existing nuclear sites. So think about these as the utility companies we talked about earlier. You can have folks who are playing the supply chain. So whether that's folks like BWX technology to make fuel components, that sort of thing or the uranium producers, which is an interesting segment of the market where there's potential kind of crunch there. Or you can look at folks who are developing reactors. And if it's me, I'm really looking in those first two buckets, folks that have operating businesses today that have been doing this for quite a long time.

对我来说，我认为投资核电可以从三个方面来看。首先是那些拥有和运营现有核电站的人，也就是我们之前提到的公用事业公司。其次是参与供应链的人，比如制造燃料组件的公司，如BWX科技公司，或者铀生产商，这是市场中一个有潜力的细分领域，可能会出现供应紧张的问题。最后是那些正在开发反应堆的企业。如果是我的话，我会更关注前两类，尤其是那些已经运营很长时间的公司。

If I had to pick one company, BWX technology still is the, I would say the highest quality nuclear business that I think is the lowest risk for folks to invest in. Today, you mentioned the military nuclear, sub and aircraft carrier business. They make fuel for those. They also manufacture the reactor components. They've been doing that for decades. Basically, a monopoly business makes up the majority of the revenue. They also are one of these companies building that Project Pele Microreactor in the US generating revenue. They're also working with DARPA and the Space Force on the first nuclear rocket engine in space with Project Draco.

如果让我选择一家公司的话，我会说BWX科技仍然是我认为质量最高且投资风险最低的核能企业。你提到了军事核能、潜艇和航空母舰业务，他们就是这些项目的燃料供应商，同时也生产反应堆组件，他们在这一领域已经有数十年的经验。这个几乎是垄断的业务构成了他们收入的主要部分。他们也是美国正在建设的Project Pele微型反应堆的参与者之一，并从中获得收入。同时，他们还和DARPA及太空军合作，共同开发首个在太空使用的Project Draco核火箭引擎。

They really have the flagship nuclear programs of the Navy, of the Air Force, Space Force and of the Army. If you think about Project Pele, if you think about the history of nuclear power, a lot of the innovation in nuclear has been driven by US military programs and has for quite a long time. When you're looking at microreactors, they do have the ability towards the end of the decade to potentially deploy the Project Pele Reactor commercially or derivative designs from the Pele Reactor commercially, which puts them in the competitive market that OCCLA is trying to get to. In microreactors, if you look at small modular reactors, they're positioned as a merchant supplier in the market. That means that they can provide services to lots of these potential small modular reactor design companies, the most notable of which I talked about, the BWRX300 reactor that's being built in Ontario. At the Darlington site, they are building the reactor pressure vessel for that reactor and are currently generating revenue on that today.

他们确实拥有海军、空军、太空军和陆军的旗舰核项目。考虑到Project Pele（佩勒项目）和核能的发展历史，很多核能的创新长期以来都是由美国军事项目驱动的。在微型反应堆方面，到本十年末，他们有能力将Project Pele Reactor（佩勒反应堆）或其衍生设计商业化，这使他们处于OCCLA试图进入的竞争市场中。就微型反应堆而言，若你看看小型模块化反应堆，他们在市场上定位为一家商用供应商。也就是说，他们可以向众多潜在的小型模块化反应堆设计公司提供服务，其中最值得注意的是我提到的BWRX300反应堆，该反应堆正在安大略的达灵顿站建造。目前，他们正在为该反应堆建造反应堆压力容器，并已经开始获得收入。

If you think about the small reactor designs in North America that are getting built right now, BWX Technologies has shots on goal on both of those and also have the potential to offer business to lots of these other small modular reactor design companies. The only company that's able to manufacture large nuclear reactor components. I think they're well positioned regardless of who wins in small modular reactors to really gobble up a portion of that business. That's spending too much time here. They have a medical business that's in a position to grow rapidly, providing nuclear radio isotopes. OCCLA was invested in there as well. I think this is a business that a lot of companies are talking about doing things in these SMR space, Marker reactor space, but BWX Technologies is generating revenue today and has the potential to continue to do that as the space grows over the next 10 plus years.

如果你考虑北美目前正在建设的小型反应堆设计，BWX Technologies在这方面有很好的机会，并且有潜力为许多其他小型模块化反应堆设计公司提供业务。他们是唯一能够制造大型核反应堆组件的公司。我认为，无论谁在小型模块化反应堆市场中胜出，他们都处于有利位置，可以真正占据一部分市场份额。另外，他们还有医疗业务，有望快速增长，主要是提供核放射性同位素。OCCLA也有在此领域进行投资。我认为，许多公司都在谈论在这些小型模块化反应堆和反应堆市场中的作为，但BWX Technologies今天已经在盈利，并有潜力在未来十多年随着市场的增长持续盈利。

I think this is a business that is high quality, is going to grow with the market and also doesn't carry the same risk that some of these paper reactor companies have today. They've got plans. They've got people who want their reactors. Nick, quick question before we move on. For the Project Pele Reactor, that's something that the Department of Defense ordered. Where's the energy for that going? Do you know? Yeah. It's going to be built at the Idaho National Laboratory, which is one of the—there's a handful of US nuclear laboratories. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory here in Tennessee is another one. It's going to be deployed at the test center.

我认为这是一家高质量的公司，能够随着市场的增长而发展，而且不像现在一些“纸上反应堆”公司那样存在相同的风险。他们有计划，也有需要反应堆的客户。尼克，在我们继续之前，有个简单的问题。关于佩勒项目反应堆，这是国防部订购的。你知道它的能源最终会流向哪里吗？是的，反应堆将在爱达荷国家实验室建造，这是美国为数不多的几所核实验室之一。位于田纳西的橡树岭国家实验室也是其中之一。这个反应堆将被部署在测试中心。

Over the long term, if it proves viable, it would be something that would be deployed at remote military bases across the country and across the world. Really solves the problem of how do you provide logistics to these bases. I think that the stat was something like 50% of the casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan were related to just transporting diesel and other types of fuel to remote military bases. Obviously, if you could put a small nuclear reactor on these bases, you could save a lot of lives. Certainly, there's a military application here that makes a lot of sense. Let's move on to some renewables because renewable stocks outside of nuclear have had a rough few years. For example, the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF is about flat over the past five years and has had a selling off basically since the pandemic hype. Many of these companies, it's impossible right now, Nick, to talk about these companies without talking about the political situation.

从长远来看，如果证明可行，这项技术将在全国乃至全球的偏远军事基地部署。这确实解决了如何为这些基地提供后勤支持的问题。据说，在伊拉克和阿富汗，大约50%的伤亡与运输柴油和其他类型的燃料到偏远军事基地有关。显然，如果能在这些基地部署小型核反应堆，就可以挽救许多生命。当然，这在军事上的应用是非常合理的。我们再来谈谈可再生能源，因为除了核能以外的可再生能源股票过去几年表现不佳。例如，iShares全球清洁能源ETF在过去五年里基本上没有增长，自疫情热潮以来一直在下跌。对许多这样的公司而言，现在讨论它们时很难不涉及政治局势。

Travis Hoiam was writing on fool.com about First Solar, which is a company that makes solar panels and operates, we'll call them solar power plants. You can imagine the large fields of solar panels that are generating energy. Hoiam pointed out that basically if it did not receive clean energy subsidies, then its operating income would fall by more than two thirds. Trump administration coming into office has talked about rolling back these clean energy subsidies. What are the impacts you're going to be watching if that happens? Well, very hard to predict, especially given how the president elect likes to negotiate. But if you look across the board, if the inflation reduction act went out the board, you could certainly see lots of impact in some of these renewable companies. Nuclear benefits from some of these subsidies under the inflation reduction act.

Travis Hoiam 在 fool.com 上撰文谈到 First Solar，这是一家生产太阳能电池板并运营太阳能发电厂的公司。你可以想象那些由太阳能电池板组成的大型田地正在发电。Hoiam 指出，如果没有清洁能源补贴，这家公司的营业收入将减少三分之二以上。特朗普政府上台后曾表示考虑取消这些清洁能源补贴。那么，如果真的发生，你会观察到什么影响呢？这很难预测，尤其是考虑到当选总统喜欢进行谈判。不过从整体来看，如果通胀削减法案失效，某些可再生能源公司肯定会受到很大影响。根据通胀削减法案，核能也会从这些补贴中受益。

Renewable diesel is another area of the market that you look at that's had lots of investment over the past few years. If you look at the economics of that business without subsidies, it doesn't really work. Electric vehicles, they've talked about rolling back electric vehicle tax credits. Certainly would hurt the folks that are benefiting from that today. You could see really effects across the board. Some folks might argue that maybe you see some marginal projects that only existed because of subsidy, get abandoned and create breathing space for other projects. I think it's really difficult to predict. I think if you have an investment thesis that is wholly dependent on the government doing X or not doing X, it's often going to put you in a bad spot as an investor. Just don't let the political narrative drive your investing decisions.

可再生柴油是市场中另一个值得关注的领域，过去几年里已经获得了大量投资。如果不考虑补贴，这个行业的经济效益其实并不理想。关于电动汽车，人们讨论过要取消电动汽车的税收抵免。这无疑对那些目前受益于此的人会有影响。这样的变动可能会在各个方面都会产生影响。有人可能会认为，一些只因补贴而存在的边际项目可能会被放弃，为其他项目腾出空间。我认为这是很难预测的。如果你的投资思路完全依赖于政府采取某些措施或不采取某些措施，作为投资者，这往往会让你处于不利境地。不要让政治话题左右你的投资决策。

Do you think the investing thesis for a lot of these renewable energy companies remain strong or for any of these renewable energy companies? I mean, renewable is continuing to grow rapidly. Solar deployment in the US grew 25%, utility scale grew 30%, about 90% of total new electrical generating capacity in the US in 2024 came from renewable. You're seeing really rapid growth in renewable. It is more challenged than it was a few years ago. Interest rates are higher, which is making some of these products that would have penciled out at lower interest rates not work in the same way they would have previously. Potentially, you have fewer subsidies.

你认为许多可再生能源公司的投资理念依然稳固吗？或者对于任何这些可再生能源公司来说，这个投资理念是否依然有效？我的意思是，可再生能源仍在迅速增长。美国的太阳能部署增长了25%，大型的公用事业规模增长了30%，2024年美国新增发电总容量中大约90%来自可再生能源。可再生能源的增长非常迅速。然而，与几年前相比，现在面临的挑战更多。利率上升，使得一些在较低利率下可以盈利的项目现在无法照常运作。此外，可能还有较少的补贴。

You saw some of that in California. So for me, I think it's hard to find super attractive places to invest in renewables today. That doesn't mean that they're not out there. But I do feel like some of these segments of the market are becoming a little bit commoditized, and there's a little bit more attraction to invest in some of these other areas. So if I had to invest in the renewable area, I would be looking at some of these companies like Brookfield Renewable Energy, folks who own a broad basket of renewable assets and less in some of these companies that make panels and that sort of thing, which for solar would fall in that bucket.

你在加州也看到过一些这样的情况。因此，我觉得如今很难找到非常有吸引力的可再生能源投资机会。但这并不意味着没有这样的机会。不过我确实认为，市场的一些部分正在变得有些同质化，投资于某些其它领域似乎更具吸引力。因此，如果我必须在可再生能源领域进行投资，我会考虑像Brookfield Renewable Energy这样的公司，它们拥有多样化的可再生能源资产，而不是那些生产太阳能面板一类的公司。

One other thing to mention too, you talk about what happens with changes in subsidies. But for solar in particular, if you see a return of tariffs, they have a lot of manufacturing capacity in the US. A lot of the low price solar panels are imported from China. So there's more puts and takes that that could happen here than just what you pull subsidies over here. You add tariffs over there. Your mind could spend if you spend too much time thinking about some of the stuff. You start doing a lot of bank shots.

还有一件事需要提及，就是你提到补贴变化时会发生的情况。但对于太阳能特别要注意，如果再次施加关税，美国拥有大量的生产能力。很多价格较低的太阳能板是从中国进口的。所以这里的变数不只是取消那边的补贴，增加这边的关税。若花太多时间思考这些问题，可能会让人感到困惑，像是在打很多复杂的台球。

While renewable energy capacity is still expanding, it seems to me that the fundamental problem for a lot of these companies is baseline power needs. That's something that nuclear energy addresses. But the sun isn't always shining. The wind is not always blowing, and you can't have rolling blackouts because of that. Are these renewable companies in the wind in solar space? Are you seeing them meaningfully address these baseline power needs? Well, everybody's trying to get involved in battery storage in some way. Some of that is driven by subsidies or incentives. California changed their rebate mechanism, which puts you in a better position if you have battery storage. But again, on the flip side of things, if you have a solar panel farm plus battery storage, that's another additional spend that you have to make.

尽管可再生能源的容量仍在扩大，但在我看来，这些公司面临的根本问题是基础电力需求。而核能解决了这个问题。然而，太阳不会总是照耀，风也不会总是吹拂，因此不能因为这些原因而导致断断续续的停电。那些专注于风能和太阳能的可再生能源公司在如何有效满足基础电力需求方面有取得显著进展吗？其实，大家都在努力参与电池储能。有些是由补贴或激励措施推动的。加州更改了他们的返利机制，如果你拥有电池储能，你会处于更有利的位置。但是，相对而言，如果你有一个太阳能电池板农场加上电池储能，那么这又是一笔额外的支出。

Listen, I think there's a growing realization that it's going to have to be in all of the above strategy to solve our energy needs. We're not just going to have renewables with battery storage that replaces all of our natural gas and nuclear. I think we're going to need more of everything to achieve our needs. Just because renewables won't provide 100% of base load power all the time doesn't mean that there's not a bright future ahead for the market, and we're not going to be producing a heck of a lot more solar energy in particular, five and 10 years from now than we are today. I just think the market is not as optimistic about renewable energy as it was a few years ago. I think they were probably too optimistic a few years ago.

听我说，我觉得现在越来越多人意识到，我们需要采用多种策略来满足能源需求。光靠可再生能源和电池储存来取代所有的天然气和核能是行不通的。要满足我们的需求，我们可能需要各种能源都更多一些。即便可再生能源并不是随时都能提供100%的基础负荷电力，这也不意味着市场前景不光明，而且特别是五到十年后，我们的太阳能产出将会远超现在。我只是觉得市场对可再生能源的乐观态度，与几年前相比有所下降。我认为几年前他们可能过于乐观了。

And finally, what energy storylines are you watching as we enter into 2025? Yeah, so I'll give you three. The first one, what is OPEC going to do with their idled capacity for the past couple of years? There's been a question of when is this this potential oil production on the sidelines going to be brought online sooner or later? The cartel is going to kind of give and decide, hey, we want to sell more of our product into the market and we're tired of waiting around for higher prices. If that does happen, then the trickle down effects to producers in the US and around the world, obviously could be significant.

最后，随着我们进入2025年，您关注哪些能源趋势？我来分享三个方面。首先，OPEC（石油输出国组织）会如何处理过去几年闲置的产能？一个关键问题是，何时会将这些潜在的石油产能重新投放市场？该组织很可能会决定希望售出更多产品，而不再仅仅等待更高的价格。如果这种情况发生了，那么对美国及世界其他地区的生产商，其影响显然会很显著。

Number two, looking in North America, in 2025, the LNG Canada project will begin exporting. I believe it's this summer. It's scheduled to do its first exports. That's going to be the first liquefied natural gas project in Canada. Canadian natural gas has been significantly below world benchmarks for quite a while because of a lack of offtake capacity. I would expect that to drive price of Canadian natural gas up in 2025. There's some producers there that could stand to benefit. Then the last one is what's going to happen. I mentioned earlier, there's BWRX 300 reactor that's going to start construction in Canada in 2025. Want to watch the progress of that reactor under construction. If it starts to see some of the same kind of cost overruns and delays that we've seen at prior nuclear products we've seen in recent years, then that could start to lessen some of the optimism in the nuclear sector. However, Canada has been working for the past several years to extend the lives of existing nuclear reactors. It's been able to do that actually below budget and ahead of schedule. If some of that same kind of expertise can drive some of the same results for construction of small modular reactors, then maybe you see the order book pick up. So we're interested to see what happens there.

第二点，关于北美市场，到2025年，加拿大的LNG（液化天然气）项目将开始出口。我认为正是在这个夏季，它计划进行首次出口。这将是加拿大第一个液化天然气项目。由于缺乏外销能力，加拿大的天然气价格长期以来都显著低于全球基准价格。我预计这会在2025年推高加拿大天然气的价格。在那里有一些生产商可能会因此受益。还有最后一个是即将发生的事情。我之前提到的BWRX 300反应堆将在2025年开始在加拿大建设。需要关注该反应堆的建设进度。如果它在成本超支和延误方面出现与我们近几年在其他核电项目中看到的相似问题，那可能会减弱核电行业的一些乐观情绪。然而，加拿大过去几年一直在努力延长现有核电反应堆的使用寿命，而且实际上是低于预算并提前完成的。如果同样的专业知识能够推动小型模块化反应堆的建设取得类似成果，那么订单可能会增加。因此，我们对未来的发展非常关注。

While that's going on, I'm sure there's going to be some stories that surprise us in 2025 as well. Next item, appreciate your insight. Appreciate you being here. Thanks for joining us on Motleyful Money. Anytime, Ricky, thanks so much. As always, people on the program may have entrusted the stocks they talk about and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against Stowe-Biersell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and are not approved by advertisers. The Motley Fool only picks products that it would personally recommend to friends like you. I'm Mary Long. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow, fools.

在此期间，我相信在2025年也会有一些故事让我们感到惊讶。接下来，感谢您的见解。感谢您来到Motley Fool Money。随时欢迎你，Ricky，非常感谢你。正如往常，节目中的人可能已经投资了他们谈论的股票，而Motley Fool可能会根据他们所听到的对某些股票做出推荐或反对。所有个人理财内容都遵循Motley Fool的编辑标准，并未经过广告商的批准。Motley Fool只会选择那些它愿意推荐给像您这样的朋友的产品。我是Mary Long。感谢收听。明天见，伙计们。