DOGE unveils a roadmap, Unlocking GDP Growth, WW3 escalation, Fat cell memory

Do you hear that free bird got busted looking at porn as computer? Looking at for you know what it was. Yeah, it was a lot of a makes Wall Street Journal I think he was pleasuring himself to that up. Oh, we were every skin flute You have to go for a quick game of pocket pool as you run. Oh my god It was too exciting you were beating the bishop Allison came in it just like wondering what was going on She grabbed my computer and she looked at it and it was an essay Oh Rain man

你听说了吗？那个自由鸟被抓到了，他在电脑上看不良内容。你知道他看的是什么吗？好像是《华尔街日报》上的一篇大文章，我想他当时正在自我安慰。哦，我们当时都很惊讶。他正在偷偷摸摸地做不正经的事情，然后艾莉森进来了，想知道发生了什么。她抓住我的电脑，看了看上面的内容，结果发现是一篇文章。天啊，这真让人哭笑不得。

All right before we get to doge we got a little housekeeping little housekeeping you know We're getting into the holiday spirit here. It's episode 205 we're in year four and we're having a Christmas party. It's gonna be great the all-in holiday Spectacular is happening in San Francisco on Saturday December 7th. I Think the VIP sold out. There's still some tickets left go to all in comm slash events and If you can't make it to San Francisco. I'm thinking by a ticket For fitted Alice on on the zoom. I think we're gonna have it on zoom is that right? I might do I have my facts straight there freeberg?

好，在我们开始讨论狗狗币之前，我们有一些事项要处理。我们正在进入节日氛围。这是第205集，我们已经是第四年了，并且要举办一个圣诞派对。这将会很精彩，All-In节日盛会将在旧金山于12月7日星期六举行。我想VIP门票已经售罄，不过还有一些普通票，您可以前往allin.com/events购买。如果你无法亲自前往旧金山，或许可以购买一张线上票，通过Zoom参加。我们可能会在Zoom上进行，对吗？我说的对吗，Freeberg？

Yeah, there's gonna be a live stream Thanks to zoom for setting this up for us. It's kind of interesting. They're doing this thing where you could kind of you know Get access to live events So they're helping us get this set up. You want to watch the stream live on On zoom anything's possible. it could be spiced up through that all right Listen bestie you on and bestie vivake wrote an op ed a barn burner in the wall street Journal about doge the Department of government efficiency and they laid it out They want to cut overbearing and unnecessary regulation obviously they want to cut unnecessary administrative roles save taxpayers money

好的，会有一个直播。感谢Zoom为我们搭建这个平台。这挺有趣的，他们做了一个你可以在线看直播活动的东西，所以他们在帮我们安排这个。你想通过Zoom在线看直播，一切皆有可能，通过这个或许会更精彩。听我说，亲爱的，你和Vivake在《华尔街日报》上发表了一篇非常引人注目的评论文章，关于政府效率部门（Doge）。他们详细说明了计划，想要削减繁琐和不必要的规章制度，显然是为了裁减不必要的行政职能，节省纳税人的钱。

They want to run it by founders non politicians helping The trump transition team find a way to hire quote a lean team of small government crusaders Teams gonna work closely with the white house office of management and budget here's the plan first taking a 500 billion in annual federal expenditures that are unauthorized by congress then fix the government's procurement process by conducting massive audits during temporary payment suspensions.

他们希望通过非政治人士、帮助特朗普过渡团队的创始人来找到一种方法，组建一支精简的“小政府”团队。这个团队会与白宫管理和预算办公室密切合作。计划是这样的：首先，处理每年5000亿美元未经国会授权的联邦开支，然后通过在临时支付暂停期间进行大规模审计来完善政府采购流程。

This is an interesting playbook That elon has done before so basically suspend all the payments and hey let everybody Audit those payments drive change through executive action based on existing legislation rather than passing new laws and two scotus rulings are going to play a major role here West Virginia versus EPA That's when scotus ruled that federal agencies can't impose regulations dealing with major economic or policy questions unless Congress authorizes them to do so and looper bright versus ramondo That's from 2024 and that overturned the chevron doctor.

这是一种有趣的策略，以前埃隆·马斯克就用过。基本上，他的做法是暂停所有付款，并让每个人审核这些付款，通过现有法律的行政行动推动变革，而不是通过颁布新法律。这里有两项最高法院的裁决将发挥重要作用。首先是西弗吉尼亚州诉环保署案，当时最高法院裁定，联邦机构不能在未经国会授权的情况下，制定涉及重大经济或政策问题的法规。其次是2024年的Looper Bright诉拉蒙多案，该案推翻了切弗伦原则。

We talked about that in a previous episode So according to doge when combined Quote these cases suggest that a plethora of current federal regulations exceed the authority congress has granted under the law Doge will use software and legal experts to create a list of regulations that trump can immediately pause they're going to make some sort of a leaderboard elon said and Vivek said he would do he suspended his existing podcast.

我们在之前的一集里谈到了这个话题。因此，根据Doge的说法，"这些案例表明，目前有许多联邦法规超出了国会根据法律授予的权限"。Doge将利用软件和法律专家创建一个特朗普可以立即暂停的法规清单。埃隆表示，他们会制作某种排行榜，而Vivek则表示，他会暂时停更他现有的播客。

I didn't know he had a podcast, but he's doing a doge cast a doge podcast and so Freeburg this has been you know a major issue for you. You've been talking about on this podcast that the unsustainable existential issue for our country is all of the debt we have Where are the chances? That this is going to occur because obviously we all know the machine is going to fight To preserve the machine chances that we are sitting here in four years and we've seen meaningful cuts in spending and a meaningful Reduction in size of the government look it doge has probably 18 months to do What they can do before the midterms and there's going to be an inevitable amount of recoil and backlash that's going to arise from the actions that they're going to try and take and president trump's going to try and take Under the recommendations provided by doge

我不知道他有一个播客，但他正在做一个叫“狗狗播客”的节目，Freeburg，这对你来说一直是一个重大问题。你在这个播客中谈到，我们国家面临的不可持续的生存问题就是我们所拥有的巨额债务。那么，这种情况发生的可能性有多大？因为显然我们都知道体制会竭力维护自身的存在，我们有多大可能在四年内看到开支有实质性的削减，政府规模有实质性的缩小。看，狗狗可能有18个月的时间来完成他们能做的事情，这要在中期选举之前，而他们试图采取的行动必然会引起某种抵制和反弹，以及特朗普总统会根据狗狗提供的建议采取的行动。

So they need to move fast and aggressively and that's only going to cause the recoil to be harder and faster There's going to be a ton of litigation. Obviously everything's going to go to court It's going to be incredibly politicized What is frustrating and challenging to me is that there is nothing that they said that doesn't seem obvious and right I don't know how you can politicize the points that they're making put aside their party put aside who they are individually Put aside how we got here At the end of the day this federal government needs to be run More efficiently more effectively it is unfair and it is a tax on every one of us to have money thrown away To have wasted capital to have bureaucracy that gets in the way of people being able to do their jobs It is a tax on all of us and our kids and our future

他们需要快速且有力地采取行动，而这只会导致反作用来得更强烈和迅速。会有大量诉讼，显然所有事情都会走上法庭，这将变得极具政治化。我感到沮丧和挑战的是，他们所说的每一点似乎都显而易见且正确。我不明白如何能将他们提出的观点政治化，把他们所属的党派、他们个人身份以及我们是如何走到这一步的这些因素放在一边。归根结底，这个联邦政府需要更高效、更有效地运行。浪费资金、浪费资本以及阻碍人们工作的官僚作风，对我们所有人、对我们的孩子和未来来说，都是一种负担。

It needs to be fixed if it doesn't get fixed as i've said countless times before We are in an arithmetic debt death spiral. There is no way out of it So by resolving both the inefficiency reducing the bureaucracy stopping the wasteful spending having accountability in the in the government We can actually get the united states another 50 years a hundred years whatever long we want but we were literally in a death spiral leading up to this moment And I have no idea how we ended up on this timeline I was over the moon and shocked when I read All of the progress over the last couple of weeks and putting this thing together I did not know that this is where we were end up I couldn't be more happy with what I think is going to happen with doge and its effect on If not actually making the changes shining a light on the issues that need to be addressed

如果不解决问题，我们就会陷入无数次提到的算术债务死亡螺旋，根本没有出路。因此，通过解决低效问题、减少官僚主义、停止浪费性开支、加强政府责任，我们实际上可以让美国再延续50年、100年，或者更长时间。但是，我们现在确实处于这样一个死亡螺旋中，我不知道我们是如何走到这一步的。过去几周的所有进展让我既惊喜又震惊，当我看到这一切逐渐成形时更是喜出望外。我想象中狗狗币带来的变化，以及它对问题的揭示，要么真正实现变革，要么将需要解决的问题暴露在阳光下，这让我无比欣慰。

And I will say it is unfair to Americans for this to be politicized. The Democrats shouldn't make this a Republican issue. This is not about Republicans doing damage. This is about doing the right thing for the government and for the country and the Democrats had an opportunity to own this issue. And instead they've chosen to oppose it which makes no sense.

这样做被政治化对美国人来说是不公平的。民主党不应该将其变成共和党的问题。这不是关于共和党造成伤害，而是关于为政府和国家做正确的事情。民主党本来有机会去解决这个问题，但他们却选择反对，这没有道理。

It is frustrating and challenging to me as an American to think that this is even a political point. This should be a what's right for America point. It's almost like we're going to war War with ourselves with our bureaucracy with the morass that's been built up over the last couple of decades. And I'm thrilled that this is happening and frankly put the put the people aside. Maybe it's the fact that you need people that are as outspoken as challenging as difficult as these two particular individuals.

作为一名美国人，我觉得这种情况让人沮丧和具有挑战性。这个问题不应该是政治上的争论，而应是关于什么对美国有利的问题。这让人感觉我们几乎是在与自己交战，与官僚机构交战，与过去几十年积累的问题交战。我很高兴看到这一切的发生，坦率地说，先不考虑具体的人，或许我们确实需要像这两位如此直言不讳、敢于挑战和困难重重的人物。

They're going to run this group. But that might be what it takes for it to happen in the small 18 month window that they have. So I don't know that's my rant on it. Yeah great rant and uh, we had a milton freedman clip go viral. And he spoke exactly about his positions on what he would eliminate departments like agriculture commerce education. Let's just play that clip and then there was obviously Malay interviewed by lex freeman earlier this week keep them or abolish them department of agriculture By abolish gone the department of commerce Abolish gone department of defense keep keep it department of education abolish gone energy Abolish health and human services there is room for some public health activities to prevent Contagion will eliminate half of the department of health.

他们打算运营这个团队。但也许只有在18个月这个小窗口期内，这样做才能实现。所以，我也不太确定，这就是我对此的抱怨。是的，很好的抱怨。我们有一个米尔顿·弗里德曼的视频片段在网上走红。他确切地表达了他对消除一些部门的看法，比如农业、商务和教育。我们就放一下那个片段吧。同时，本周早些时候还进行了马莱与莱克斯·弗里德曼的采访。保留还是取消？农业部：取消，没了。商务部：取消，没了。国防部：保留。教育部：取消，没了。能源：取消。健康与公共服务部：保留一部分公共健康活动以防止传染，削减一半的卫生部门。

Yeah, some certainly okay one half There we go housing and urban development down done. That's gone department of the interior The problem there is you first have to sell off all the land that the government owns But just what you should do you should be done pretty quickly done. You should do that department of justice Oh, yes, keep that one keep that one labor No gone state Keep keep it transportation gone gone The treasury You have to keep it to collect taxes.

好的，有些当然可以，拆掉一半 好了，我们来看住房和城市发展部门，结束。这个没了。内政部的问题在于，你首先得把政府拥有的所有土地卖掉，不过这就是你该做的，而且应该很快就能完成，结束。司法部 哦，是的，这个要保留。劳工部 不，结束。国务院 保留。交通运输部 结束，结束。财政部 你得保留它来征税。

Alright collect taxes through the treasury sacks. You see that clip you see the activity going on with doge Would you think that the machine will allow what built in freedman is describing there? what however air Malay is doing in Argentina and what Elon is proposing with doge. Do you think the machine's going to allow You know the wholesale deleting of Department of Agriculture Department of Education at a federal level and move all that stuff to the states What do you think is going to happen here and how hard will the machine fight back against this in your mind because Hey, you might have some republicans some democrats They fought really hard to get jobs to get subsidies to put in factories whatever from the federal government Are they going to just give that all back The clip is from 1998, by the way? Sacks your thoughts.

好的，通过财政局收税。你看到那个片段了吗？你看到与狗狗币相关的活动了吗？你认为机器会允许弗里德曼描述的情况出现吗？不管是马来在阿根廷所做的事情，还是埃隆关于狗狗币的建议。你觉得机器会允许全面删除联邦层面的农业部和教育部，并把这些事务都转移到各州吗？你认为这里会发生什么，机器会如何强烈地反击？因为不论是共和党人还是民主党人，他们为了获得工作、补贴，或是从联邦政府那里建厂等，进行了非常艰难的斗争。他们会愿意把这一切都放弃吗？顺便说一下，这个片段来自1998年。Sacks，你怎么看？

Well that Milton Freeman clip as great as it is. I mean it really is outstanding Is setting expectations a little bit too high here? I mean, we're not going to be able to wipe out entire major departments of the government that are cabinet level positions I don't think that's In the cars you know what Milton Freeman's basically describing as a night watchman state and I don't think we're going to get back to that however if you look right now at the Opinions on the legacy media at msd and cc and all that kind of stuff They are Forecasting that doge is going to amount to nothing They're basically saying that the powers that be in washing are going to reject it completely There's somehow going to be a following out between elon and djt. They're just very cynical.

那段米尔顿·弗里德曼的视频确实非常出色。但它是不是把期望值设得有点过高了呢？我的意思是，我们不可能彻底取消政府中那些内阁级别的重要部门。我觉得这样做不太现实。你知道，弗里德曼基本上是在描述一种“守夜人国家”的概念，我认为我们不太可能回到那种状态。然而，如果你现在看看主流媒体和MSNBC之类的意见，他们预测狗狗币将一无所成。他们基本上在说华盛顿的权势人物会完全拒绝它，并猜测埃隆·马斯克和特朗普之间会出现某种分歧。他们就是非常悲观。

And then you have people who are not necessarily dismissive in that way In the media, but just kind of long time washing insiders who feel like they've seen it all before nothing ever happens And so they're just very jaded and cynical. So I would say that you know again I wouldn't have the expectations of the millen Freeman level But I think that the expectations for doge right now are being set incredibly low By the media and by the washing insiders And I think there are good reasons to believe that the results will surpass those those low expectations Number one is you've got elon musk running this thing with favek And elon understands better than any body the impact of deleterious regulations on business So he can really put a microscope on that He's got the largest speech platform in the world with x the largest account on x and he's also built a Get out the vote operation That he funded in the last election that he's promised to keep around and potentially expand So his influence hopefully is not going anywhere. He's can be able to keep using that to help Keep politicians on side here, right? Yeah.

然后，你会遇到一些人，他们并不像媒体中表达得那么冷漠，只是多年来看过太多事情的圈内人，觉得一切都千篇一律、没有变化，因此变得非常厌倦和愤世嫉俗。所以我会说，不要期待有摩根·弗里曼那样的效果，但我认为对狗狗币的期望目前被媒体和圈内人设得非常低。而我认为有充分理由相信结果会超出这些低期望。 首先，埃隆·马斯克正与法韦克一起推动这件事情。埃隆比任何人都更了解有害法规对商业的影响，所以他能真正深入地研究这一点。他还拥有全球最大的交流平台x和x上的最大账户，并且建立了在上次选举中开展的投票拉票活动。他承诺会继续维持并可能扩展这些活动，因此他的影响力显然不会消失。他能够继续利用这些资源来帮助争取政治家的支持，对吧？

So that's number one is no one's ever made money betting against elon musk And I don't expect that to start right now Number two is you got vivate who is co-head with elon of this thing And I think he's a perfect partner for elon because vivate first of all he's a brilliant guy with a lot of success in business But he's also a harvard train lawyer. He's a brilliant legal mind And I think you could see in that op-ed I suspect the parts that we're citing all those from court decisions Were his influence and so they figured out a legal road map here. It's not just a matter of kind of Going to congress and hoping congress acts. They've got a way here sequentially to do this Through the executive branch through executive orders Going through the court system. They've kind of got a game plan here. That's not entirely reliant on legislation so I think the vakes Influence and and sort of legal strategic mind is a is a big asset here

所以，首先，没有人曾经通过看衰埃隆·马斯克而赚钱，而我也不认为现在会是一个例外。其次是有关Vivate的事情，他和埃隆共同领导这个项目。我认为他是埃隆的完美合作伙伴，因为Vivate不仅是一位在商业上非常成功的出色人物，他还是一位接受过哈佛培训的律师，拥有卓越的法律智慧。我怀疑，在他们的文章中引用的那些来自法院判决的部分可能就是受到了他的影响。因此，他们找出了一个法律路线图，这不仅仅是去国会并希望国会采取行动的问题。他们已经找到了一种通过行政分支、行政命令以及通过法院系统逐步实现的方式。他们这里有一个游戏计划，不完全依赖于立法。因此，我认为Vivate的影响力和他的法律战略思维在这里是一个巨大的资产。

And then I think the third reason to be optimistic is just the fact that this was printed On the wall street journal op-ed page is suggestive in and of itself What this shows is that this doge effort is I think uniting both the kind of populist reformers and the establishment types within the party if elon and The vake we're trying to get a mandate for no more forever war. I don't think the wall street journal Publishing that right this would not happen So there are reasons to believe that this will not actually divide the party that the party could be Yeah, could be. Yeah. Now look every congressman and every senator is still going to advocate For their pork barrel project in their district or their state and it's going to be very hard to push back on that However, you could imagine a process like we have with the base closure commission when the united states needed to close a bunch of military bases And they created an outside commission to recommend that cuts and everyone kind of shared the pain equally Maybe doge could somehow play into that or straight a bit Yeah, so i'm not saying it's going to be perfect, but I do think that if republicans share a principle across again both these establishment and the populist side it would be in reducing unnecessary regulation and the number of Regulators needed the number of government employees needed to enforce all those regulations

我认为乐观的第三个理由是，这篇文章被刊登在《华尔街日报》的评论版上，这本身就很有意义。这表明这个“狗计划”在某种程度上团结了党内的民粹改革者和建制派。如果埃隆·马斯克和维韦克想要获取抵制无休止战争的授权，我不认为《华尔街日报》会发表这样的内容。所以，有理由相信这不会真正导致党内分裂，反而可能团结党内各方。 当然，每一位国会议员和参议员仍会为他们所在地区或州的特殊利益项目争取资源，这点会很难改变。不过，可以想象一种类似基础设施关闭委员会的流程，美国当时需要关闭许多军事基地，成立了一个外部委员会来推荐削减方案，让每个人平分损失。也许“狗计划”可以以某种方式参与这个过程，或加以改进。 我并不是说这会是一个完美的方案，但我确实认为，如果共和党在这两派之间有一个共享原则，那就是减少不必要的监管，以及减少执行这些法规所需的监管人员和政府雇员数量。

So I'm hopeful that they'll be able to get something done within the party and since the republicans Have the trifecta if they've got Trump's leadership and they've got the leadership of the senate and house backing it I think they'll be able to get something done again. It's not gonna be something Milton freeman level, but i'm optimistic they'll get something good and important done I think the easiest thing for them to get done with doge is the naming the shaming the auditing the transparency Of what we're actually spending because so many of the audits chamois are just not Completed people don't know what's being spent and if you show americans a 12,000 Hammer or people with job titles not coming into the office or coming into the office one day a week One day a month that's going to infuriate taxpayers And I think there's a very easy way to navigate all this you just create the leaderboard and you not only shame people who are wasting our tax dollars You celebrate the people who are heroes who start showing frugality and cost saving and they're going to do this with the leaderboard Of the heroes and the goats. This could be the unifying not just the republican party as a saxes pointing out chamois I think this could unify the whole country. Is there anybody paying taxes that wants to see money wasted that wants to see us pay people High salaries to not come to work chamois which are take on the sequence of events here What are easy layups that they could actually get done and then where is the machine going to fight and try to stop this thing?

所以我希望他们能够在党内达成一些共识。由于共和党拥有“三位一体”的优势——他们有特朗普的领导，还有参议院和众议院的支持，我相信他们能够再次取得一些成就。虽然可能达不到米尔顿·弗里德曼那样的水平，但我对他们能够实现一些好的和重要的事情持乐观态度。 我认为他们最容易实现的一件事是与“背狗”相关的措施，即公开羞辱、审计和透明度，清楚展示我们实际的支出情况。因为很多审计和透明措施并没有完成，人们并不知道钱用在了哪里。如果你向美国人展示一个价值1.2万美元的锤子，或者有些人有工作职位却不去办公室，或者每周、每月只去一天，这会激怒纳税人。我认为有一个很简单的方法来处理这一切：你只需创建一个排行榜，不仅羞辱那些浪费纳税人钱的人，还庆祝那些展现节俭和节约成本的英雄。可以通过这样一个英雄和“山羊”（寓意失败者或负面人物）的排行榜来实现。这不仅可以团结共和党，如萨克斯所指出的，我认为这也可以团结整个国家。 有没有纳税人愿意看到钱被浪费，愿意看到我们支付高薪给那些不来工作的人呢？萨克斯，对于这一系列事件，你怎么看？他们可以轻松实现的目标是什么？而机器会在哪里反对并试图阻止这一计划呢？

I think you Are highlighting something that they can do right away, which I think is very powerful Which is just using these distribution channels that Elon has now to create a massive layer of accountability I do think that sunshine is a really incredible disinfectant I think the best way that they could start if possible is to stop paying Their vendors until you actually have some amount of accounting to figure out as you said How many? $600 soap dispensers are actually being bought and sold now That kind of whatever you want to call that corruption or grift It's not going to account for hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars But I do think that it is a very moral and symbolic win That says we're going we're going to start to get much more rational and it starts to allow The average american to actually feel like they have a little bit of control and they have a more vested interest In how the government spends money But I want to I actually want to take a step back for a second And before I talk about what doge can do I just want to highlight something that's been going on in california because I think it explains a lot In california, and i'm just going to read this that because it's incredible The regulatory burden in california as a state From 1997 to 2015. This is when the data is available that I found Has increased by almost 50 percent As of may of 2022 There are almost 61,000 Individual regulations in the state of california So what does that mean and where does it come from and nick if you can just put out the tweet it has happened over a period of time In which the government has been the absolute singular Source of employment in the state And we talked about this before where this is also a problem at the federal level when you look at gdp and job growth Because it looks like a lot of these jobs are actually fake Manufactured government type jobs. So why is this a problem?

我认为你指出了一件他们可以立即做的事情，这非常有力量，那就是利用埃隆现在拥有的这些分销渠道，创造一种巨大的问责机制。我认为阳光是一个非常有效的消毒剂。我认为他们可以开始的最佳方式（如果可能的话）是停止支付供应商，直到你能搞清楚到底买卖了多少像你说的那样的600美元的肥皂分配器。这种腐败或中饱私囊不可能涉及到数千亿或数万亿美元，但我确实认为，这是一个非常道德和象征性的重要胜利。这表示我们将开始变得更理性，这也让普通美国人觉得自己对政府的开支有一些控制权，并且更加关心政府如何花费资金。 不过，我想先退一步，在谈论狗狗币可以做什么之前，我想强调一下加州正在发生的事情，因为这能解释很多问题。加州作为一个州，从1997年到2015年，这是我发现的数据可用的时期，监管负担增加了将近50%。截至2022年5月，加州有近61,000条独立法规。这意味着什么呢？其来源是什么呢？尼克，如果你能发推特，这是一个在政府作为该州的唯一就业来源的时期发生的变化。我们之前也谈到过，这在联邦层面也是个问题，当你查看GDP和就业增长时，因为看起来很多工作实际上是虚假的、制造出来的政府类型的工作。那么，为什么这是个问题呢？

You've seen in california The issue that we have is that if you have A growth in the number of employees in this case in california all the job growth in recent memory Has been state employees What is the byproduct regulations go up? What is the byproduct of that? There are actually no private sector jobs and more to the point the private sector fleas So now let's bubble that up and look at the federal government nick if you want to just show that chart that I that I sent you What is incredible j cal is that The more people are hired by the government Low and behold what do you see the number of regulations issued by federal agencies has just continued Unabated year in year out. You cannot run a country like this So because these congress is doing right congress is doing Less and less of a job actually trying to frame how the country should work That white space is filled in as free berg said by these federal agencies it compounds and accumulates This is not replacing laws. None of these regulations have expiry dates And so as a result, I think what you probably have Is an incredible restraint on the us economy. I think that the us economy could be growing at four or five percent But the reason that it doesn't grow at four or five percent is in that one single chart It is impossible to be able to live up to your Economic potential when you have this burden on your neck

在加利福尼亚，你已经见到了我们面临的问题：如果员工数量增长，例如在加州，最近的就业增长几乎全是州政府员工。由此带来的结果就是法规数量上升。这有什么后果呢？事实上，私人部门的工作机会几乎没有了，更重要的是，私人企业纷纷逃离。 现在让我们来看联邦政府的情况。你可以看看我发给你的图表。这简直令人难以置信：雇用的政府工作人员越多，你会发现联邦机构颁布的法规数量持续不断地增加，年复一年。这样的国家几乎无法运转。因为国会正在做什么呢？国会其实越来越少地去框定国家的运作方式。 正如Freeberg所说，那些空白被这些联邦机构填补了，而且还在持续累积。这些并没有替代法律，这些法规没有设定失效日期。因此，我认为，这可能给美国经济造成重大阻碍。美国经济本可以以4%或5%的速度增长，但没有达到这个增长率的原因就在那一张图表中。要在这样的重负之下实现经济潜力几乎是不可能的。

So I think the real opportunity for doge Is to basically do whatever it needs to do using the law To wipe as many of these regulations off the books We are better cutting them all to zero and then finding the ones we really need and then repassing those Then we are going at this piecemeal And there's some incredible there's some incredible ideas by the way that this creates Nick, I don't know if you can find this tweet, but doge asked what people think of the irs And there was an enormous amount of activity that essentially said give us a flat tax and wipe out the tax code And people were very flexible in the amount of tax that they were willing to pay But could you imagine the simplification In the tax code and the implications of that. I was in Singapore by the way 10 days ago when I started my trip Nick beep out the name of the person I'm about to say but I had a long meeting with You know is there And I was asking him the complexity Of dealing with taxes. He's like what do you mean? We don't we pay a very simple tax system. There's no capital gains in Singapore And so as a result our filing requirements are dominimously small But as a result people like him meaning great entrepreneurs Can spend all their time thinking about what to build not not tax optimization Exactly or how to account for it So could you imagine if these guys basically use doge as a mechanism to shrink the tax code Create a flat tax potentially. I know that that has to be passed by congress. I understand that But the idea of just cutting this all the way down And then finding through that process what you actually need I think can find america 100 200 basis points of gdp growth it could be an economic renaissance I mean just a build on that cutting all the regulations to zero you might have throw out some babies in the bathwater So why not put a clock on them and just say whenever this was enacted plus Five years and then it rolls off or plus two years whatever number of months and then you could have them chamom off rolling off every month I think that's a good idea, but it has to be quarterly. I think that's a good idea But jake i think you first have to cancel all these regulations And then say whatever we need we will reenact

我认为狗狗币的真正机会在于利用法律，尽可能多地取消现有的法规。我们最好将它们全部归零，然后重新制定那些我们真正需要的法规。这样比逐条调整更有成效。而且，这也激发了一些不可思议的想法。Nick，我不知道你是否能找到这条推文，但狗狗币曾经问过人们对美国国税局的看法。结果有大量的反馈，大家基本上都希望能有一个统一的税制，废除现行的税法。人们对愿意支付的税额非常灵活。你能想象如果税法能简化成什么样吗？ 我十天前在新加坡开始我的旅程。当时与一个朋友长时间会面，我问他关于税务系统的复杂性。他反问道：“你指的是什么？我们这里采用非常简单的税制，新加坡没有资本利得税。因此，我们的申报要求非常少。而像他这样杰出的企业家，可以全神贯注于创造，而不是在税务优化和计算上花费时间。” 假如这些法规能够通过使用狗狗币来简化税法，建立一个统一税制，潜在地推动这些变化。我知道这必须要经过国会批准，但将这些法规完全精简，然后在这个过程中找出真正需要的法规，可以为美国的GDP增长增添1到2个百分点。这可能会带来经济复兴。 当然，如果将所有法规都清除，可能会有一些重要的东西被遗忘。所以我们可以给这些法规设立期限，比如在某法规颁布五年后自动失效，或是两年、几个月后失效，然后定期进行更新。我觉得这是个好主意，但必须按季度执行。最先要做的是取消所有这些法规，然后再重新制定我们需要的法规。

To your point on a five-year shot clock that then has to be renewed in a new congressional period And I think that that's extremely healthy Well, because you know what people die paradigm shift and then nobody even remembers these regulations You have to do archaeology to figure out who created this What was the intent and you would never do that you would never live sacks with all of these rules forever

针对您提到的五年期限的观点，这个期限需要在新的国会期间进行更新。这种机制是非常健康的。因为人会去世，时代会改变，然后就没有人记得这些法规了。要弄清楚谁制定了这些法规以及背后的意图，需要进行“考古”般的研究。而您不会希望一辈子都被这些老旧的规则束缚住。

Just one last comment in fairness to these government employees The one thing is that it's not their fault, right? Meaning in the sense that they were hired into a regime Where the incentive was to regulate so that you had things to oversee And so they did their job in fact, I would say they did their job incredibly well But the point is that now we need to pivot for them to do a totally different job. Well, chamom I'll hand this one over to free free bird free bird if you Were to get rid of regulations as somebody working in the government you might work your way out of a job So the incentive is completely perverse And reverse to what we actually need in the country

为了公平地评论这些政府雇员，我想说最后一点：这并不是他们的错，对吧？意思是他们是在一个激励机制是通过监管来确保有事情可监督的体制下被雇用的。而他们事实上已经非常出色地完成了他们的工作。但是问题是，现在我们需要他们转型去做一项完全不同的工作。那么，我将这个话题交给“自由鸟”来说吧。如果你作为政府工作人员取消这些监管，你可能会失去工作机会。因此，这种激励机制是完全不合理的，与国家实际上需要的方向是相反的。

Which is less regulation more thoughtful regulation and some process by taking these things on and off the books And adapting them to reality. Yeah, this is where I think I think we've talked about this many many times in the past, but like all organizations have a natural tendency to grow They may want to grow. They're not yes Like find me one nonprofit or find me one university or find me one company Or one government agency that's ever said my job is to shrink myself It's never happened

这段话的大意是： 要更少的监管、更周全的监管，并通过不断修订法律法规来适应现实。我相信我们过去已经多次讨论过这个问题，所有组织都天然有发展的倾向。它们可能想要不断壮大，没有任何一家非营利组织、大学、公司或政府机构会声明他们的目标是自我缩小。这种情况从未发生过。

So why does that happen? Well, if you look at the like day-to-day Operating role of each individual over time like all individuals they want to do more They want to have a bigger impact. They want to have more scale. They want to have more leverage So there's this natural set of incentives that drives a lot of choices and operating procedures on the ground That create more structure more scale more leverage and drive more hiring Everyone wants to become a manager of people. They don't want to just be doing the same I see job forever individual contributor job forever

那么，为什么会发生这种情况呢？如果你观察每个人每天的工作角色，随着时间的推移，所有人都希望能做得更多，希望产生更大的影响力，希望工作规模更大，希望有更多的杠杆作用。因此，这种自然而然的激励机制推动了很多选择和具体工作流程，创造了更多的结构、规模和杠杆作用，并促使更多的招聘。每个人都希望成为一名管理人员，而不仅仅是永远做同样的基层工作。

So if they want to be a manager, they got to find more stuff to do and then they got to hire people to do that stuff So all of these organizations whether again and we've all been on boards of nonprofits I'm sure and we've all been involved in this sort of thing There's always this like Incentive to raise more capital to hire more people to do more stuff that sort of it's really unclear until you really dig into the psychology of Each individual person working there why this is happening I don't think that the federal government is any different each of these people feel they want to be more important They want to have a bigger role. They want to have a bigger impact make their impact. Yeah, so it's a very good job, right? If your job direct directionally is to regulate Then what's the scalar on regulation more regulation?

所以，如果他们想成为经理，就必须找到更多的事去做，然后再雇人来做这些事。因此，所有这些组织，无论是非营利组织还是其他类型的，我们都很熟悉这些情况，总是有一种动机去筹集更多的资金，雇用更多的人，去做更多的事情。在你真正深入了解每个在那里工作的人们的心理之前，这些做法的理由并不清晰。我认为联邦政府也没有什么不同，这些人都希望自己变得更重要，希望扮演更大的角色，希望产生更大的影响。这就是工作的魅力所在，对吧？如果你的工作方向是监管，那么增加监管就是唯一的发展路径。

So therefore to do more you have to regulate more there's no regulator that says I want to regulate less over time because we've created a system That's one directional. So you have to have these resets if you don't have them naturally They're going to happen unnaturally in the form of social unrest and breakdowns of the economy And collapse of social structure as all these other things that happen Way way down or as chamat is pointing out in california in the economic structure of california Which I think it's happening on a kind of national scale because of the outside's role the federal government plays In our national economy here today.

因此，要做得更多，就需要进行更多的监管。但没有哪个监管者会说，他们希望随着时间的推移减少监管，因为我们创建了一个单向运行的系统。所以，如果不进行自然调整，就会出现以社会动荡、经济崩溃和社会结构瓦解等非自然方式进行调整的情况。就像Chamat所指出的，加州的经济结构正在出现问题，我认为这种情况在全国范围内都在发生，因为联邦政府在我们今天的国家经济中扮演了外部角色。

So so you have to have these unnatural forces come in and and do this readjustment from time to time otherwise It's just going to break on its own And malay in argentina has basically I don't know a year or an 18 month head start on us and has been doing this He did a great podcast with lex free men They translated it actually they dubbed it which was kind of interesting technology and in This discussion they talked about reducing the ministries agencies from 20 to 8 They fired 50,000 government workers 15 percent of the total workforce There were 341,000 when he started they implemented daily deregulation process to remove inefficient policies

因此，你必须让这些非自然的力量不时介入，进行调整，否则它自己就会出现问题。而马来在阿根廷基本上比我们早了大约一年或十八个月，并且一直在进行这些调整。他和 Lex Freeman 做了一期很棒的播客，他们实际上翻译并配音了，这种技术非常有趣。在这次讨论中，他们谈到了将政府部门从20个缩减到8个，解雇了5万名公务员，相当于总劳动力的15%。他刚开始时共有34.1万名员工。他们每天都进行去监管化进程，以消除低效的政策。

So they just do that day in and day out They ended discretionary payments to provinces and cities that were stored market driven utility prices no more subsidies Yada yada yada right down the line Sacks your thoughts on How many months it will take to do this and there's this this discussion and I don't know if that's from inside The trump administration of hey, we gotta get this done in 18 months. We gotta get this done in 18 months What can you tell us about the the sense of urgency about getting this done quickly And and why that's occurring

他们就这样日复一日地进行下去。他们终止了对各省和城市的酌情支付，并取消了市场驱动的公用事业价格中的补贴，依此类推。萨克斯，您对此有何看法？大概要多少个月才能完成这个过程？关于这个问题的讨论，我不知道这是否来自特朗普政府内部的消息，说“我们必须在18个月内完成这个任务”。您能告诉我们关于快速完成这一任务的紧迫感，以及为什么会有这样的紧迫感吗？

Well, I think you want to and vivak have announced that doge will be Sun setting or disbanding at the 250th anniversary of america which would be July 4th of 2026 So they've only given themselves about what's that 18 months? Yep, which kind of makes sense, right? That's leading into the midterms, right? Right exactly you tend to have the most Momentum coming off an election like this one where you have the trifecta So I think it makes a lot of sense that they're gonna be able to have the greatest impact Let's say in the first year after the new President congress gets sworn in.

好的，我认为你和维瓦克已经宣布，狗狗币将在美国建国250周年（即2026年7月4日）逐步退出或解散。所以他们只给自己大约18个月的时间，对吧？这其实说得通，因为这正好是中期选举的前夕，对吧？确实如此。在这种选举之后，往往会有最大的势头，尤其是在这样的三权齐发的时期。我觉得他们能在新总统和国会宣誓就职后的第一年里取得最大的影响力，这很有道理。

How do you get democrats in on the sacks? How do you push them to join the party? To join the movement to be more efficient to be more transparent Is there a possibility for us to get some coordination here with the other side or no? Maybe you might be able to get some support of particular democrats on particular things. I don't want to say that it's not possible Difficult, but not not impossible But look, I think what me lei has done in argentina is Remarkable. I mean that was a country that was a total basket case inflation Was out of control. It's already because of the cutseas made They now have a more normal inflation rate and they've gone from basically being Uninvestable to investable as a country.

如何让民主党人参与其中？如何推动他们加入这个党派，加入这个运动，使其更加高效和透明？有没有可能与对方协调，或者说不能呢？也许你可以得到一些民主党人在某些特定事情上的支持。我不想说这是不可能的，困难，但并非不可能。不过，你看，我认为梅莱在阿根廷做得非常出色。这个国家曾是一个完全混乱的局面，通货膨胀失控。由于他采取的措施，他们的通胀率已经趋于正常，国家从基本上无法投资变为了可投资的对象。

Now The united states is not the basket case that argentina is but we are on an unsustainable Fiscal trajectory. Doge is also not going to have the power that mala has not going to have the degrees of freedom to act But we also don't have as big a problem What we need to do is just bend our fiscal curve from being unsustainable to being sustainable And if we can do that it will have a huge impact on the economy specifically What we saw in the last election the thing that probably hurt the democrats the most was inflation Voters clearly do not like inflation.

现在，美国并不像阿根廷那样陷入严重经济困境，但我们的财政轨迹是不可持续的。Doge（狗狗币）也不会像Mala（这里可能是指某个国家或组织）的情况那么糟糕，也不具备那么多可以采取行动的自由。但我们的问题没有那么严重。我们需要做的就是将我们的财政曲线从不可持续状态调整为可持续状态。如果我们能够做到这一点，将会对经济产生巨大影响。特别是在我们最近的选举中，可能对民主党伤害最大的是通货膨胀。选民显然不喜欢通货膨胀。

They do not like the diminishment of their purchasing power But how do you stop inflation? You have to raise interest rates And that's not good either because that raises the cost of a mortgage that raises the cost of a car payment Is bad for investment right because if interest rates are higher then that means the discount rate on stocks and real estate on every investment class basically is higher and The hurdle rate for investments higher so high interest rates are also bad for the economy

他们不喜欢购买力的下降，但怎么才能阻止通货膨胀呢？必须提高利率。然而，这也不好，因为这会增加按揭贷款和汽车付款的成本。对于投资来说也不利，因为如果利率更高，股票和房地产等各种投资的折现率也会更高，投资的门槛也更高。因此，高利率对经济也不利。

So how do you get out of that box where you either have high inflation or high interest rates? The only way is to bend The fiscal curve to that more sustainable path And if you can and if you can do that the bond markets will actually give you credit for it In advance because they know that they're not going to be flooded With the need to keep funding all of this us government debt So we either get to kind of you know startups have this saying about being either default alive or default dead We either get to default sustainable or default and sustainable right now we're unsustainable The bond markets know that inflation remains persistently high around 3% The Fed has not been able to cut interest rates the way that they expected to remember the markets were expecting seven cuts this year

那么，该如何摆脱高通胀和高利率这种两难境地呢？唯一的方法就是将财政曲线调整到一个更可持续的路径。如果你能够做到这一点，债券市场实际上会提前给予你信任，因为他们知道美国政府不需要不断地融通巨额债务。因此，我们要么达到“默认可持续性”，要么继续处于“默认不可持续性”。当前，我们是不可持续的。债券市场知道通胀率持续高企在3%左右，美联储未能如预期那样大幅降低利率，要记得，市场曾期待今年会有七次降息。

We got basically three. We got a 50 and a 25 So it's just now hasn't been the cuts that people were expecting and that's because inflation hasn't come down as much as people thought So if doge working with The rest of the government omb the treasury Congress executive orders can now convince the markets That the us financial picture is more sustainable. We'll get credit for that interest rates will come down And that'll lead to a boom in the economy So it's all win-win if they can pull this off

我们基本上得到了三个结果：一个是50，一个是25。因此，现在还没有出现人们预期的削减，这是因为通货膨胀并没有像人们想象的那样下降。如果Doge与政府其他部门——管理和预算办公室、财政部、国会和行政命令合作，能够说服市场相信美国的金融状况更加可持续，我们就会因此获得信任，利率将下降，这将导致经济繁荣。所以，如果他们能做到这一点，就是双赢。

Pre-bark any final thoughts here before we move on from doge wishing elon and vivak As much success as possible We've really I mean everybody should be rooting for this you want to give us your final thoughts I feel like America is Neo from the matrix where there was like a thousand bullets being shot at america And we like literally had to dodge every single one of them in order to get to this this point

在我们从狗狗币祝福埃隆和维瓦克取得尽可能大成功的话题上继续之前，请在这里提前分享你的最后想法。我们确实希望每个人都能为此加油。你想给我们分享你的最终看法吗？ 我感觉美国就像《黑客帝国》中的Neo，面对向美国射来的成千上万颗子弹，我们必须避开每一颗，才能到达今天这个地步。

I again, I am so shocked and surprised in a positive way That we ended up on this particular timeline. Look everything had to go the way it went for this to have happened Biden decided to run for Re-election biden stayed in too long. They didn't run a primary. They put kamala in Elan that was the fences switch parts Elan decided to throw a hundred million bucks at the problem elan bok twitter China had a real estate bubble I mean you can go down the list of things that had to go right for us to get to this very moment Where a small group of people have recognized the fiscal death spiral that the united states federal government has been in and have the authority And the capacity and the skills to be able to go and execute against the solution

再次，我感到非常震惊和惊喜，以一种积极的方式，惊讶于我们竟然走到了这个特定的时间节点。看看吧，一切都必须按照这样的方式进行，才能让这一切发生。拜登决定竞选连任，并在位时间过长。他们没有进行党内初选，而是选择了卡玛拉。Elan则从其他方面进行调整，他决定投入一亿美元解决这个问题。Elan买下了推特，中国则面临房地产泡沫。也就是说，有一系列事情必须正确发生，我们才能到达这个时刻。在这里，一小群人已经认识到美国联邦政府正陷入财政死亡漩涡，并拥有权力、能力和技巧去执行解决方案。

I have no idea how this could have been architected. Maybe sachs knew all along and I convinced him two years ago that this was how things had to go. And he's been designing it like maybe if you're talking about re-dolly on the end of the empire for three years. Honestly, I guess as maybe you did free bird. We give you credit when we talk with dahlio about this he's like dog been a handful and also around. The relationship with china, which I think this is all very tightly related. We may have dodged a lot of bullets. Hmm and if the united states can get a tousin order. Reduce federal spending while increasing Economic activity. It can be a tremendous unlock for the us and for world peace. So because again, I think that conflict arises when when we don't have our own fiscal house in order. And so I feel very positive, more more surprised and positive than I was. A year ago six months ago. It's just amazing. We're on this timeline. And I do think the united states as neo dodged a lot of bullets here. Absolutely. I told you everything was proceeding as I had foreseen.

我完全不知道这个事情是如何规划出来的。也许在两年前，我就让萨克斯相信这就是事情发展的必然方向，而他一直在设计过程中。就像是谈论三年来末期帝国的重新布局一样。老实说，我猜可能就像你谈起自由鸟那样。我们在和达里奥谈论这件事时给予你很高的评价，他就像是一只难以驾驭的狗一样，同时也涉及到与中国的关系，我认为这两者之间关系非常紧密。我们可能躲过了很多子弹。如果美国能重新整理好自己，减少联邦支出的同时增加经济活动，这对美国和世界和平来说都是巨大的突破。因为我认为，当我们没有把自己的财政问题解决时，冲突就会出现。所以我感觉非常乐观，比一年前或六个月前还要惊喜。这简直不可思议，我们就在这个时间线上。我确实认为美国在这里躲过了很多子弹。没错，我早就告诉过你，一切都在按照我的预见进行。

The emperor, you know what happened to the tenure and you on in vva wrote that essay. I don't actually don't what happened yields contracted by five basis points. You know the value of that is. A couple billion 15 billion per year. Yeah. Yeah, so so I think that it was probably 100 billion dollar essay just writing it. I think you will find that this doge is what? operational. I mean, I think it's got a chance. I mean if you can't I just wish it weren't political. Right. I want I want all Americans and democrats to stand up and say this is the right thing for the united states. About the fact guys the essay essay saved us 100 billion just the essay.

皇帝，您知道任期的情况，而您在VVA上写了那篇文章。其实我并不清楚结果，收益率缩水了5个基点。您知道那意味着什么吗？那可是每年几十亿，可能是150亿左右。因此，我认为那可能是一篇价值1000亿美元的文章，仅仅是写出来。我觉得您会发现这个东西，您知道，可以运作。我是说，我觉得它有机会成功。我真的希望这不是政治问题。我希望所有美国人和民主党人都站出来说，这对美国来说是正确的。而且大家要知道，光是这篇文章就为我们节省了1000亿呢。

Here's a new you're going to need. Gonna have to be very strategic true about how they detailed what they're doing. Yeah. The dodge team is going to have to be very strategic to pick things that are consensus building. That don't make people feel like this is going to grind the poor more and make the rich richer. That's the expectation. That's going to be the negative framing on this. I predict which is just a bunch of rich guys making cuts. Talking their books making cuts for things that are their pet projects their investments. They have to come out and not make it that they have to make it here's inefficiency. Here's inefficiency. Here's inefficiency and a great way to do that would be to say the efficiency gains and the tax cuts are going to go to people making. Let's say under 250 thousand dollars. These are not these cuts are not being made just to make the rich richer. That's going to be the framing but just my best advice.

这是一段新的信息你需要了解。他们需要非常有策略地详述他们正在做的事情。是的，道奇团队需要非常有策略地选择可以形成共识的事情，不要让人觉得这些行动会让穷人更困难而富人更富有。这种负面看法是可以预见的，人们会认为这只是一些富人在削减开支，投资于他们的兴趣项目。他们必须避免给人这样的印象，而要强调他们是在消除低效。一个不错的方法是说明效率提升和税收减免将惠及年收入低于25万美元的人。这些削减措施不是为了让富人更富有。这是我的最佳建议。

Don't you think that that's going to happen no matter what. What which part of it? That they're going to say that no matter what. So I I actually disagree with the first part of what you said. I agree with you that the media the mainstream media will try to characterize this as. Hurting the poor. I agree and I'm not sure yet. Yeah, it's already still or not. Yeah, but I think the first part I disagree with is I don't think they should. Operate towards consensus. I think that they should do what's right. Well, you could do what's right and you could start with things that are the most wasteful. Like if you start cutting kids lunches or pal grants. Or you start cutting people's jobs to in health care education that people perceive are helping people. I think you're going to just feed into this narrative that it's a way to cut taxes on rich people. And you know what you do need to build consensus. How does this thing look as rich people? If you cut regulations and a bunch of our companies benefit from it. Just to be self-aware the framing is already. That this is an effort for companies that we invest in to. Have less regulation to make the equity holders in those companies more rich. I just make sure that the hold on. It's for all have to make sure the savings is for all Americans and that all Americans benefit from it. And the way they benefit it the best framing they could do is your taxes are going to be lower because you're not wasting your tax dollars. If they can keep to that not hey, we're moving regulations so that our companies. I think to be honest here. Yeah being a hairdresser requires more regulation than being any one of most of my companies. So I actually think it benefits. I think it benefits other people way way more than it benefits me and you have to show it is my point. Show it that's the point is you have to show people that you're doing this for everybody. Not just for the people on this podcast and our friends. That's going to be the key.

你认为无论如何，事情都会这样发生吗？是在哪一部分？是说他们无论如何都会这么说吗？其实，我不同意你说的第一部分。我同意媒体，尤其是主流媒体，会试图把这描述为对穷人的伤害。我同意，但还有些不确定。不过，我不同意的是，我不认为他们应该寻求共识。我认为他们应该做正确的事情。而且，即便是做正确的事情，也可以从最浪费的地方开始，比如削减儿童午餐或助学金，或是在医疗教育方面削减工作，这会被人视为对民众有益的项目。如果你这么做，只会加强那种削减是为了给富人减税的说法。 需要有意识的是，问题的本质就是这些作为是在为了减轻我们投资的公司所受的监管，进而让这些公司的股东变得更富有。必须确保节省下来的利益是惠及所有美国人的，让所有人都从中受益。最好的说法是你的税收会减少，因为你的税款没有被浪费。如果他们能坚持这一点，而不是说我们在移除监管以便于我们的公司，那就好了。说实话，现在当一个发型师所需的监管，比我大多数公司的要求还要多。所以我认为这实际上对其他人的益处远远超过对我的益处。重点是你必须向大家展示你是在为所有人而做，不仅仅是为这个播客上的人和我们的朋友。这才是关键。

What's him off? Just said it's so important. There's a great interview I've mentioned this in the past between Tim Ferris and charles coke from a couple of years ago where he brings up this exact example. Yes about how regulatory burdens make it difficult for women to become hairdressers. It's like $7,000. So they don't have the capital to do that because of the regulatory burden to get there.

是什么让他生气？只是说这件事非常重要。我之前提到过，几年前Tim Ferris和Charles Koch之间有一个很好的访谈，其中他们提到过这个例子。是关于监管负担如何使女性成为理发师变得困难。费用大约是7,000美元。因此，由于这些监管负担，她们没有资本来完成这个过程。

Think about building building your home or you know, like let's say you want to change put a shower in your bathroom. Change the shower in your bathroom. You don't want to spend $15,000 on all the permitting regulatory stuff to make that happen It's going to unlock value for everyone That's a small example of kind of a regulatory problem But this benefits everyone and the cost of transportation Will have to communicate that you have to be able to communicate that And that's where Using the law platform But malaise play shows up and you got a perfect job of communicating this to people And that's the playbook freeberg. That's my point People are going to fight this you have to convince them you have to show them that this is helping everybody

想象一下建造自己的房屋，或者说你想改造一下浴室，比如换一个新的淋浴设施。你不想在所有许可和监管手续上花费1.5万美元。这种改变将为每个人创造更多价值。这只是一个小例子，说明监管问题的影响。但这个例子对所有人都是有益的。交通成本的问题需要向大家清楚传达信息。在这个过程中，使用法律平台是很重要的，而清晰的沟通会让事情顺利进行。这就是Freeberg所谈的要点。人们会抵抗这样的改变，你必须说服他们，向他们展示这对所有人都有益。

Can we just agree that they're okay, but that's different than how you started you said only work on consensus projects I know I didn't say that I think you have that I like those do them first. I should do those first make sure that people understand this is to save them money I'm not saying that you don't change regulations for spaceships and self-driving cars as well But you have to make sure you show people that this can benefit them or else they're going to just fight it And that's going to be the whole all this effort will be for not If you if you get a bunch of republicans sacks who start fighting this and you have a splintering in your party because They feel like this isn't helping their local constituents. This whole thing could be for not That's my story that you told is gonna be told by The legacy media and all the haters and the enemies regardless of what I don't think so. I don't think so. I think People You show people You're not doing the movie show. I'm talking about the public who vote Now is the time to implement when you show people 22,000

我们能不能就同意他们还不错，但这和你开始时说的不同。你开始时说只做有共识的项目。我知道我没这么说过，我猜你这么认为的。我喜欢那些项目，先做它们。我应该先做那些项目，确保人们理解这是为了给他们省钱。我不是说你不用改变太空船和自动驾驶汽车的法规，但你必须确保向人们展示这对他们有益，否则他们只会反对。这会让所有努力都化为泡影。如果你让一群共和党人开始反对这件事，而且你的党派内部分裂，因为他们觉得这对地方选民没有帮助，这一切努力都可能白费。你讲的故事将会被传统媒体和所有反对者以及敌人传述，我不这么认为。我不这样认为。我认为当你向人们展示时——我指的是投票的公众——现在是实施的时机。

You know hammers and wasted money. You will get a hundred percent of americans Backing this now 60 minutes, but that for 30 years. Nothing's happened We gotta just act now. Yeah act and bring people on with communications I mean if you guys if you're practicing communicating poorly great. I'm not over it Yeah, I'm not saying that communication isn't part of the job In fact, this whole conversation started by us talking about an op-ed Yes, you want to vivake roe correct and they're laying out right when they're laying out their objectives and they're doing podcasts and Ylana is the biggest Following in the world and biggest following so I just don't think communication is going to be the problem But you're also not going to be able to convince everyone And you know we've already won the election and now is the time to figure out very strategically how to implement as much as possible Be humble by two million votes. Keep in mind. You have to bring everybody along

你知道锤子和浪费金钱的问题。在这个60分钟的节目中，你会得到百分之百美国人的支持，但在过去的30年里，不知道有什么事情发生了。我们现在必须行动，是的，行动并通过沟通带动大家。我是说，如果你们在练习糟糕的沟通，那就很糟糕。我还没有完全接受。我不是说沟通不是工作的一部分。事实上，这次对话就是从我们讨论一篇评论文章开始的。是的，你想要支持Vivek Roe，他们明确表达了他们的目标，并且在做播客，Ylana拥有世界上最大的粉丝群体。所以，我不认为沟通会是个问题，但你也无法说服所有人。你知道，我们已经赢得了选举，现在是时候非常有策略地去尽可能多地实施。记住，要保持谦逊，同时要带动所有人参与。

Okay, you know what if the legacy media was fair it would have been 20 million votes for trunks I have one under these circumstances and he won the trifecta It's impressive Nobody says it's not impressive. I'm not minimizing it. I'm just saying be aware. There's so many four million people Who are rooting against trump and i think getting some no they're not on true. That's not true I think there's a decent number of people who are probably very upset that you know trump won Just like last time they were upset that Biden one Including all americans in this is the most virtuous thing you can do. I think it's strange to get on board I think it's I think it's deranged the idea that 74 million people are actually rooting against him I don't think that that's true. I don't think they feel good that they lost people don't feel good about losing Bringing those people on board is virtuous dude There's very many inferences in the country have you seen the trump dance? I mean there's been such a five-ship. Let's see it.

好的，你知道吗，如果传统媒体是公正的，会有2000万人投票给特朗普。在这种情况下，他赢得了三连胜，这很令人印象深刻。没有人说这不令人印象深刻。我不是在淡化这个，我只是想说要意识到，有很多四百万的人反对特朗普，我认为有些人并不是这样。这不是真的。我觉得有相当一部分人可能对特朗普获胜感到不满，就像上次他们对拜登获胜感到不满一样。包括所有美国人是你能做的最有道德的事情。我觉得很奇怪要跟上，不，我认为说7400万人实际上反对他是不合理的。我不认为他们对输了感到好受。让那些人参与进来是有道德的，兄弟。这个国家有很多推论。你见过特朗普的舞蹈吗？我意思是，这已经是个巨大的转变。让我们看看吧。

Let's see it I'm not gonna do it right now, but there's been such a huge five shift that the energy is so optimistic right now The energy right now is incredible and I think people are feeling much more optimistic Can you imagine what a downer would it be if like we were expecting president comm layers to take the oath of office? It would be a downer to me if there were still pushing a 7.2 trillion dollar federal budget next year That would be a downer And by the way, I think that there's a deeply linked relationship between social issues economic issues political policies and foreign conflict They all seem like they're four different things, but they're so tightly interwound And it's interesting how everything kind of moves together with this shift in who ended up winning winning this election cycle And I think it really speaks to the relationship between the four

让我们看看，我现在不打算做这件事，但最近的变化实在太大了，目前的能量是如此乐观。目前的能量令人难以置信，我觉得人们感到更有希望。你能想象如果我们期待总统来宣誓就职，结果却是个冷场吗？如果明年他们还在推一个7.2万亿美元的联邦预算，那对我来说会是个打击。顺便说一下，我认为社会问题、经济问题、政治政策和国际冲突之间有着深刻的联系。它们看起来像是四件不同的事情，但其实紧密相连。随着这次选举周期的结果，每件事似乎都在一起移动。这真的说明了这四者之间的关系。

Well, by the way, there's a great meme that was floating around where it showed a photo of Trump Elon bobbie kennedy and Tulsi gabber and it said that all four of these fields be democrats. Yep. Yep Rogan in it. I tweeted that It used to it used to be that that democrats were progressive progressive means progress looking forward And the last decade the last couple years in particular I think a lot of people that I know that are former democrats in tamaq you can speak for yourself Feel like the democrats stop looking forward and it was all about trying to like pessimistic and grievance and Ventum culture and all of a sudden you've got guys like elon Promoting themselves as republicans highlighting that it's all of the this is the party that looks forward This is the party that drives progress. It's an amazing shift I don't know if there's been anything like it that's happened this quickly and I voted more to make america great again Then I did vote for being a republican. I think that the republican party right totally Is is less important than it's ever been and I think maga is more important than it's ever been I agree and I'd say the biggest risk to the whole agenda probably is not the democrats it's actually some of these old bulls in congress who Are anti maga for some reason Trump is the one who just won the trifecta. He just won this big election

好的，顺便说一下，有一个很棒的迷因在传，它展示了一张特朗普、埃隆·马斯克、罗伯特·肯尼迪和图尔西·加伯德的照片，上面写着这四个人都曾是民主党。是的，是的，罗根在里面。我发了推文说，以前民主党是进步的，进步意味着向前看。在过去十年，尤其是最近几年，我认识的很多以前的民主党人都觉得民主党停止了向前看，变得悲观，专注于抱怨和文化争论。但突然间，你会看到像埃隆这样的人宣传自己是共和党人，强调这是一个面向未来、推动进步的政党。这是一个惊人的转变，我不知道是否有其他类似的事情以如此快的速度发生。我投票是为了“让美国再次伟大”，而不是为了成为共和党。我认为共和党比以往任何时候都不那么重要，而“让美国再次伟大”比以往任何时候都更重要。我同意，我认为这整个议程最大的风险可能不是民主党，而是国会中的一些旧派，他们由于某种原因反对“让美国再次伟大”。特朗普是刚刚赢得这场比赛的人，他刚刚在这次大选中取得了重大胜利。

If you stick with the old republican message, you're just a surefire loser So give trump his do as the leader of the party realizes now a maga party and let's get some things done If the reform agenda fails to me frank it probably is not going to be the democrats It's probably going to be these holdouts in the republican party Yeah Yeah, that was my question earlier. I think I asked it twice. I didn't get anybody engaged in it How do you convince them? How are they being brought on board to this if they have all this pork barrel spending is there a strategy there? Would you have a strategy? I think sox laid it out Which is that if you use the combination of the carrot and the stick I think the carrot is Creating transparency and I think The other part of the carrot is You'll have now an extremely well-funded pack that can support people who are on board with this agenda But the stick is if you don't I think that if elan makes us a really concerted Long-term part of his strategy then I think you should run candidates who actually are aligned with the agenda That the make America great again movement wants So I think that's the carrot and stick Jason, which is like some of these old republicans will have to decide do I Basically help invest in a renewal of the american spirit Or do I keep pushing back because I like the way it was and I want to go to war and I want to cozy up to these lobbyists. I think those folks are going to have a very tough Four and eight years because I think you'll see a bunch of magna candidates rising up to run against them everywhere in the united states

如果你坚持老的共和党信息，你注定会失败。所以就让特朗普作为党的领导者吧，意识到现在是一个MAGA（让美国再次伟大）党，让我们采取一些行动。如果改革议程失败，坦白说，可能不是因为民主党，而是因为共和党内部的一些反对者。是的，是的，那是我之前的问题，我想我问了两次，但没有得到任何人的回应。你怎么说服他们？如果他们有这么多利益分配计划，有没有应对策略？你会采取何种策略？我认为策略已有所体现，那就是用胡萝卜加大棒的结合。我认为胡萝卜部分在于创造透明度，另一个胡萝卜部分是建立一个非常有资金支持的政治行动委员会（PAC），来支持那些支持这一议程的人。而大棒则是，如果你不支持，那我认为，如果伊隆全力以赴地将这作为他的长远策略的一部分，那么我认为你就该推出与MAGA运动议程一致的候选人。所以我认为这就是胡萝卜加大棒的策略，Jason，这意味着一些老牌共和党人需要做出决定：我是否帮助推动美国精神的复兴，还是坚持反对，因为我喜欢过去的方式，我想要发起战争并接近这些说客。我认为这些人将在未来四到八年面临非常艰难的时期，因为我想你会看到一系列MAGA候选人崛起，在美国各地与他们竞争。

As you can see my young apprentice your friends have failed Now witness the firepower of this fully armed and operational battle station man I said to be humble like three times. None of it sinking in huh? No, I just explained I explained the rest. I I've been very clear. You're not gonna get molen freeman Okay, you're not even gonna get heavier malay. Well, we can hopefully get as a bending of the curve towards sustainable I'm setting my expectations to be realistic. Okay. I mean breaking even would be great If we just weren't adding to the debt that would be amazing

如你所见，我的年轻学徒，你的朋友们已经失败。现在，见证这座全副武装、完全运作的战斗站的火力吧！我已经告诉你要谦逊三次了，完全没起作用吗？不，我已经解释过了，我很清楚地说明了。你不会得到摩根·弗里曼，也不会得到加重口音的马来语。我们能希望的只是朝着可持续发展弯道靠近。我设定了现实的期望。如果我们能够收支平衡，不再增加债务，那就太好了。

Look if if the federal budget gets the three trillion And regulation gets cut if you get 50 percent of The regulations in federal agencies cut I think you unleash an economic sonic boom I'm all in I think I think it's the greatest thing that could ever happen. My gosh. Could you imagine america clocking in Do you guys deal with regulatory? I mean how much of you guys start with companies zero. I'm dealing not a real regulatory The regulatory stuff is brutal man. I mean like with it's legit brain like melting. sh tell me your number one regulatory Frustration we can go around the horn. This is a great topic actually. I don't have any I think I'm very blessed to work in an industry that's very light with regulation I think it affects many many other industries that If they were unleashed could contribute to american real estate construction regulation very Regressive because they touch poor and middle-income people way more than it touched folks like me 100 And so rip these regulations out Two regulations that do affect you crypto regulation and capital formation both of those things are They haven't heard me. They say my point of view but They definitely are

如果联邦预算能达到三万亿美元，而且能够削减50%的联邦机构的法规，我觉得经济将会迎来一次大爆发。对此我全力支持，我认为这是可能发生的最好的事情。天哪，你能想象美国会达到怎样的高度吗？你们有没有处理过法规问题呢？我意思是，你们和公司的合作从多少开始受法规影响？我不是在处理真正的法规问题，那些法规的确是让人脑袋快要爆炸的。告诉我你的头号法规挫折，我们可以依次分享。实际上，这是个很棒的话题。我没有这方面的困扰，因为我很幸运地在一个监管很少的行业中工作。我觉得法规对许多其他行业的影响很大，如果能释放它们的潜力，将能对美国房地产和建筑业做出贡献。那些法规对于低收入和中等收入的人群影响很大，而对像我这样的人影响较小，削减掉这些法规是100%对的。有两项法规确实影响到我：加密货币法规和资本形成。虽然对我直接影响不大，但它们确实存在。

Economy right I can snap a finger and raise a couple billion dollars That is not it's so I'm in a unique position and I and I recognize that what is much harder Is if you're trying to be An electrician if you're trying to be a hairdresser if you're trying to be a massage therapist when you have to spend 15 20 30 percent of your salary on licensure why Totally why do we need these stupid rules totally if you're a person that's trying to like construct a home Why does it take six and eight weeks to get permits approved? Why? I know there are no good answers for these things So forget about me like it doesn't matter about me But the main line part of the united states economy as I said before is a coiled spring If you get rid of those regulations it disproportionately impacts middle income and lower middle income jobs This is why if you if you see if you see gdp if america clocks in gdp at four to four and a half percent Watch out folks Sonic the watch out. I'll give you two really simple ones allowing Everybody in the united states to participate in company formation would change everything 95 of the company cannot participate in investing in startups or any you know

经济上，我轻而易举就能筹集到几十亿美元。这让我处于一个独特的地位，我也认识到这一点。然而，更难的是，如果你是电工、美发师或按摩治疗师，必须将工资的15%、20%甚至30%用于执照上，这就不合理了。为什么我们需要这些愚蠢的规定呢？如果你想建造房屋，为什么获得许可需要六到八周？为什么？对此我知道没有好的答案。所以，不用管我，我并不重要。但正如我之前所说，美国经济的核心就像一根被压缩的弹簧。如果取消这些规定，中低收入工作的影响会特别大。因此，如果你看到GDP增长达到4%到4.5%，请注意，说不定会带来意想不到的变化。我这里有两个简单的建议：允许所有美国人参与公司创办，这将改变一切。95%的民众无法参与投资初创企业或其他相关活动。

I think it's simpler than that to be a credit I think it's just I think it's more about just massive Freedom to operate just freedom to do stuff. You know, that's what it is I mean you're free to go to vegas and gamble you're free to you know, play, you know, online sports You're not free to buy bitcoin. You're not free to buy You are free to buy bitcoin you can buy right now. Yeah, but you're not free to free to token, right? I'm not sure that that's the regulation. I think there's many more traditional Forms of economic growth that we can have before we need to make icos legal and easier I want to say something I think that the person that runs for governor in california Should commit to cutting those 65,000 regulations down to 10,000 as needed to replacing the dmv with the digital app And to cut taxes to mere zero and to create school choice Whoever does that will create a renaissance in california

我认为事情没有那么复杂，要成为一个信用就是有大量的行动自由。你懂的，就是自由去做事情。比如，你可以自由去拉斯维加斯赌博，自由去玩线上运动。但是，买比特币不算在这些自由中。哦，其实你是可以现在就买比特币的，但你没有完全自由去参与代币交易。我不确定这是监管的问题，我觉得在我们需要让首次代币发行（ICO）合法化并更加便捷之前，还有很多传统的经济增长方式可以尝试。我还想说一点，我认为，在加州竞选州长的人应该承诺把那些65,000条法规削减到10,000条，根据需要进行修改；用数字应用程序取代DMV，并将税收降到几乎为零，同时推进学校选择政策。谁做到这些，谁就可能在加州引发一个复兴。

It's the fifth largest economy in the world folks And it can be a bellwether for the rest of the world Well, you know, there there's a lot of scuttlebutt online that nicole shanahan's gonna run for governor of california And i'd be all in favor of that. I would say that of all the political personality is involved in the election over the past year She gets my most improved award. I remember when like bobby named her To his ticket. I was a little bit skeptical of that choice Because of some of the causes that she had identified with or donated to in the past But she I think has ended up being a star. She's pretty based. She's a yeah totally I mean, she's she's red pilden ended up supporting Maha and mega And I don't think we're not getting anyone better in california. So she's wanting to do it and take it on that'd be awesome Sags what about you? You don't want you don't want that that mansion It'd be a significant downgrade for me. That's about to say Right out for a doctorate dammit That was such an easy one. Yeah, you could live in the governor's mansion also known as smaller than your guesthouse That would be your backup man cave. Well, actually that's happened people have In new york. I remember one of the governors was like, yeah, you know, i'm good I don't need to live in the mansion.

这是世界上第五大经济体，大家都知道，它可以成为世界其他地区的风向标。嗯，你知道，网上有很多传闻说妮可·沙纳汉要竞选加州州长。我完全支持这个。我想说，在过去一年的选举中，所有参与的政治人物中，她获得了我认为提升最大的人物奖。我记得当鲍比选她进入他的竞选团队时，我有点怀疑这个选择，因为她过去支持或捐助的一些事业。但我认为她最终成为了一颗明星。她非常有主见，完全赞同她的立场，支持Maha和Mega。我认为我们不会在加州找到更好的候选人了。所以如果她想参与并承担这个责任，那就太好了。Sags，你呢？你不想要那座官邸吗？对我来说，这将是一个显著的降级。我正要说，如果能为博士学位提供便利，那就太简单了。你可以住在州长官邸，也被称为比你的客房还小的地方，那将会是你的备用私人空间。实际上，这种情况还发生过，我记得纽约的一位州长就曾表示，他不需要住在官邸里。

Where do you want to go next boys? We we have other things on the docket. Would you like to go for our war correspondent? Would you like to go from google breakup? Would you like to go in vidia? Where would you like to go? World war three, I think is important sacks you put world war three on the docket would you like to tita for us? Yeah Sure. Well, there's several events that have happened in reasonably close succession The first thing to understand is what's happening on the ground in ukraine the ukraine has been losing Territory and accelerating pace. There's an excellent graphic in the new york times that i'll put on the screen that shows this It's not a stalemate memorized on this podcast Six months or a year ago that it was no longer a stalemate It was a war of attrition in which the Ukrainians were now losing and every single month now the Russians are taking more and more territory again The curve is accelerating. We had all invested in a business who had a growth curve that looked like this. So not good news for the Ukrainians

你们接下来想去哪儿，小伙子们？我们还有其他计划。你们想成为战地记者吗？还是想讨论谷歌的拆分？或者是谈谈英伟达？你们想聊哪个话题？我觉得第三次世界大战是个重要的话题，你在议程上加了第三次世界大战，你能为我们做一下引介吗？好的，当然。最近接连发生了几件事。 首先要了解的是乌克兰的现状。乌克兰正在以加速的速度失去领土。纽约时报上有一个出色的图表，我会在屏幕上展示，显示了这一点。正如我们在六个月或一年前的播客节目中提到的，这不再是僵局，而是乌克兰人正在失去的消耗战。现在每个月，俄罗斯人都占领了越来越多的领土，形势正在快速恶化。我们都曾投资过类似增长曲线的生意，所以这对乌克兰人来说不是好消息。

In response to that, I think that's familiar the condition on the ground that's created the next set of actions Which is the Biden administration finally approved the use Of long-range missiles attack them's missiles storm shadows to hit territory deep inside of russia the russians Believe and I don't know whether this is true or not. But what they say is that those weapons cannot be operated without americans or british operators being there to you know, they're too complicated for the Ukrainians just to use on their own So they the russians view this as not just a direct attack on their homeland on their motherland but also a direct involvement by the nato allies united states and Britain in the war and that is a big escalation You know a lot of people say that The russians have all these red lines we keep crossing them. They don't do anything That's not true if you actually listen to what the russians have said there's only been two red lines The first red line was they said they would not accept nato expanding to ukraine and They proved their seriousness on that issue by invading ukraine In february of 2022 the second red line as they said that they would not accept american long-range missiles being used to target inside of russia and that line has now been crossed

对此，我认为这种情况已经很熟悉了，事实上的情况促成了一系列接下来的行动。拜登政府最终批准使用远程导弹，比如攻击性导弹和风暴阴影导弹，以打击俄罗斯境内的深处目标。俄罗斯方面认为，尽管我不确定这是否属实，但他们表示这些武器无法在没有美国或英国操作员在场的情况下使用，因为对乌克兰人来说，这些武器过于复杂，无法独立操作。因此，俄罗斯将此视为不仅是对他们国土的直接攻击，也是北约盟国美国和英国在战争中的直接参与，这代表着冲突的重大升级。许多人认为俄罗斯设定了许多"红线"，我们不断跨越，但他们却无所作为。实际上，如果真正听俄罗斯说的话，他们只有两个真正的红线。第一个红线是他们表示不会接受北约扩展到乌克兰，而在2022年2月通过入侵乌克兰表明了他们对此问题的认真态度。第二个红线是他们表示不会接受美国的远程导弹用于攻击俄罗斯境内目标，而现在这一条红线也已经被跨越了。

So this leads us to the next set of events which is russia just used What may be some people are saying it's an icbm, but it probably is more likely to be Not an intercontinental but an intermediate range ballistic missile that hit a Ukrainian city and it's obviously didn't carry a nuclear payload But it's the type of of ballistic missile that is used to carry Nuclear weapons there are a couple of features of this that I think are really important number one It's a hypersonic missile it hit the target at something like mock 10 What that means is that it just can't be intercepted is too fast out of the the west And the united states in particular does not as far as we know have a technology to intercept a hypersonic missile like that The second is that it had what's called a merve Warhead or payload merve is multiple independently targeted Reentry vehicles basically what it means is the warhead Splits up right when I guess close to the ground it splits into six separate Warheads and the reason for this is I understand it is diabolical again It's just if you're launching a nuclear weapon It just makes it that much harder to now intercept it because now you've got six warheads hitting you instead of just one so I mean As I understand a missile like this has never been used before and what the russians are doing obviously Is sending us a signal and what that message is Is that they're saying we have the means to hit any european city or any european asset With a hypersonic missile that you can't stop that may or may not have a nuclear warhead attached to it And it's just a way of them expressing their seriousness And displeasure and and and reacting to an escalating in response to the fact that we are now allowing Western missiles to be hitting targets deep inside of russia

这段话可以翻译为： 这引导我们了解接下来发生的事件：俄罗斯刚刚使用了一种导弹。有人说它可能是洲际弹道导弹（ICBM），但更可能是一种中程弹道导弹袭击了一个乌克兰城市。这显然没有携带核弹头，但这种类型的弹道导弹通常用于携带核武器。这里有几个重要的方面：第一，它是一枚高超音速导弹，速度达到约10倍音速。也就是说，西方国家，特别是美国，目前据我们所知，没有能力拦截这样快速的高超音速导弹。第二，它携带的是所谓的MIRV弹头，即多弹头独立重返大气层载具。基本上，这意味着弹头在接近地面时会分裂成六个独立弹头。我理解这样设计的目的是非常“阴险”，因为如果是核武器攻击，这让拦截更加困难，因为现在有六个弹头，而不是一个。 据我所知，像这样的导弹以前从未被使用过，俄罗斯显然是在传递一个信号：他们有能力用无法拦截的高超音速导弹打击任何欧洲城市或目标，可能携带核弹头，也可能没有。这是他们表明自己的认真态度和不满的一种方式，也是对我们现在允许西方导弹深入攻击俄罗斯境内目标的升级回应。

So the bottom line is this war is escalating. It's escalating to where good and at some point soon Yeah, it's really we're gonna have to get off of this esclatory Laughter or we end up in a really disastrous place and just the last final point is It's absolutely remarkable that biden decided to take us to this place With what just six weeks left in his term Complete is a lame duck president. What is his mandate for doing that for taking this extraordinary risk On behalf of the country The voters disvoted for trump who made it really clear he wanted to end the war and biden and his team have unilaterally now escalated this war They did it without consulting with trump's team at least that's what was publicly reported is there was no briefing

所以，总的来说，这场战争在升级。它升级到一个很不好的地步，我们很快就得停止这样的升级，否则我们会陷入一个非常糟糕的境地。最后一点令人惊讶的是，拜登在只剩下六周的任期内决定把我们带到这个地步，而他基本上是一个跛脚鸭总统。他有何授权去代表国家冒这样一个巨大的风险？选民选择了特朗普，他明确表示他希望结束战争，而拜登和他的团队单方面加剧了这场战争。据公开报道，他们在此过程中没有与特朗普的团队进行磋商，也没有任何简报。

Set up for trump's transition team So you have here bine his team taking a unilateral action to expand and escalate this war Even when he's a lame duck president and the question you have to ask is why what is the point of this? Well, I think it's just completely deranged Because it's not just that forget biden and trump for a second if you take a step back What was voted in? Was to end this war and for the united states to get our hands out of it So you couldn't have a clearer message to the sitting president in the white house, which is this is not what americans want And so to basically ignore the will of the voters and to essentially go and push Another country into the brink. I think is so incredibly responsible and you know other times we've said in the past

为特朗普的过渡团队做好准备，所以你看到这里是拜登的团队采取单边行动来扩大和升级这场战争。即使他是一个跛脚鸭总统，你不得不问的问题是，为什么？这样做的意义是什么？嗯，我觉得这完全是不合常理的。因为如果我们先不谈拜登和特朗普，稍微退后一步看看，投票选上来的议题是结束这场战争，让美国抽身而出。所以对于在白宫的现任总统来说，选民发出的信息再明确不过了，那就是这不是美国人民想要的。所以基本上无视选民的意愿，并且实质上将另一个国家推向边缘，我认为这是极其不负责任的行为。我们过去有时候也曾说过类似的情况。

Take donald trump seriously, but not literally Russia you should take seriously and literally Because they actually write it down for you and tell you and so when they said Every act of aggression from now on is going to be viewed by us on a look-through basis To the actual country that is enabling this to happen You couldn't be more clear, but americans couldn't have been more clear, which is we don't want this war anymore And I just think it's really deranged what the biden white house is doing. It's incredibly dangerous And by the way, not to mention it's incredibly costly as well I mean we've had like some last minute efforts to sort of tamp down on these last minute budget approvals and whatnot But we're talking about tens and hundreds of billions of dollars that we're giving on top of the risk of Of nuclear escalation. I just think it's absolutely crazy. It's absolutely crazy.

认真对待特朗普，但不要从字面上解读他。对于俄罗斯，你应该既认真又从字面上解读，因为他们实际上把话写下来告诉你。所以当他们说，从现在起的每一个侵略行为我们都会看作是由某个实际国家促成的时，他们的意图再清楚不过了。然而，美国人的态度也很明确，那就是我们不再想要这场战争了。我觉得拜登政府现在的做法非常疯狂且极其危险。不仅如此，这样做的代价也极其高昂。我们有过一些最后时刻的努力来遏制这些紧急预算的批准等等，但我们实际上正在花费数百亿、甚至数千亿美元，这还不算核升级的风险。我觉得这简直疯了，绝对疯狂。

Putin is not a dummy He has heard and seen trump's campaign rhetoric and sachs I don't know if this is this has been publicly reported that he had a call with with trump after the uh the election victory Does Putin not see that in a couple of weeks a couple of months There will be new leadership in the white house and there's going to be a path to a resolution here Like does that not give us all a little bit of reprieve that this is not going to escalate because everyone's waiting for january 20th Oh, I mean for sure. I mean thank goodness. I would say that we have a new president coming in who does not own this war

普京不是傻子。他听到了特朗普的竞选言论并知道情况。据我所知，他在特朗普选举获胜后曾与他通话。我不知道这是否已被公开报道。普京难道看不到，再过几周或几个月，白宫会有新的领导人，这将为解决方案铺平道路吗？难道这不会让我们稍微松一口气，认为情况不会升级，因为所有人都在等待1月20日吗？哦，我的意思是，当然了。谢天谢地，我们即将迎来一位不负责这场战争的新总统。

I mean the problem with biden is that he completely owns this war and he does not want to emit defeat And so what you've seen is that over the last couple of years every weapon system that biden said he wouldn't give To you crane because it could literally cause world war three. These are biden's words He said it could be armageddon if we gave you crane f 16 It could be armageddon if we gave them a verm's tanks it would be armageddon if we gave them high mars and attack them's and Could lead to war war three if we let them hit targets inside of russia. These are biden's words and He has basically given it on every single one of those points because he's so committed To this policy, right? He's he's in the quagmire. He can only double down.

我认为拜登的问题在于，他完全掌控这场战争，不愿意承认失败。因此，你会看到在过去几年里，拜登曾说不会提供给乌克兰的每一种武器系统，最终他都提供了。拜登自己曾说，如果给乌克兰F-16战机、艾布拉姆斯坦克、高机动性多管火箭炮系统和攻击导弹，这是“世界末日”，甚至可能引发第三次世界大战。他还表示，如果允许乌克兰攻击俄罗斯境内目标，也可能导致世界大战。这些都是拜登的言论。但是，由于他对这一政策的极度坚持，他基本上在每一个方面都做出了让步。他深陷泥潭，只能不断加码。

He doesn't know how to extricate himself And now we don't know exactly what common hares would have done But I think probably she would have inherited joe bines policy and likely continued it And I think we have a wonderful opportunity with trump taking office. He doesn't own this policy He can look at it with fresh eyes And most importantly he campaigned on ending the war So he has the mandate of the american people to stop it All I can say is thank goodness And we just need to get through the next two months. We use you to get to january 20th without there being some new horrible escalation in this war He's by jibbiden is martin galing that's his strategy for the ukraine russia war Just keep doubling down and doubling down. Oh, yeah. Do you want to explain what that is? Oh, yeah, sorry martin galing is a strategy in gambling where let's just say, you know, you start betting a dollar and you lose

他不知道如何摆脱困境。现在我们不太清楚普通人的做法会是什么，但我认为她可能会继承乔·拜登的政策并可能继续执行。而我觉得特朗普上任是一个绝佳的机会，因为这不是他的政策，他可以用全新的眼光来看待。而且最重要的是，他竞选时承诺要结束战争，所以他有美国人民的授权去停止它。感谢上帝，我们只需要度过接下来的两个月。在1月20日之前，不要让这场战争有新的可怕升级。拜登在乌克兰和俄罗斯战争中的策略就是不断加码。你想解释一下这是什么意思吗？哦，对不起，加码是一种赌博策略，比如你开始下注一美元，然后输了。

Your next bet is two dollars if you lose your next bet is four dollars If you lose your next bet is eight dollars and eventually you'll win once is the theory But there's many times where martin galing does not wait, but you only win a dollar So you could be betting, you know 80, you know 40 bucks a 80 bucks 160 $320 and then you finally win and you win a dollar Right or or you go broke. That's a great analogy because you can also go broke right Have caps at the roulette table One time I would do this as a joke. Yes, exactly So I would do this as a joke with my wife or when I was at the world serious a poker I'd be like i'm going to pay for dinner or lunch or whatever and I put a hundred dollars on black lose Put 200 on black win go pay for lunch And I did it one time at the wsop and I went 100 200 400 800 1600 I ran out of cash. I got 3200 from my friend I put it down the floor man came over and said that's your last bet Oh no my buddy and I my boss I would go play if you do this Yeah, in our college years early 20s. We would go to drink for free at the casino You just sit at the blackjack table and just get a dollar check table and watch you This was a long time ago Well, I mean if you bet a dollar and then you bet two bucks You can just keep drinking for free for like two or three hours and then go out and enjoy your night You've made 15 bucks and call it enough did I tell you about the losing a million dollars playing roulette

根据你的描述，可以翻译和简化如下： 如果你下一次赌输掉了，你接下来的赌注会是两美元；如果你又输，接下来的赌注会是四美元；再输的话就是八美元。理论上最终你会赢一次。但是，有很多时候这个策略（马丁格尔）行不通，而且即便你赢了，也只是赢了一美元。所以你可能下注了80美元、160美元、320美元，最终赢了一块钱，或者，一路输下去导致破产。这是一个很好的比喻，因为这个方法同样有破产的风险。赌场的赌桌会有下注上限。 有一次我只是把这个当玩笑。我会和我老婆或者在世界扑克系列赛时说我要去支付午餐的钱。我放一百美元压黑色，输了，然后放两百美元压黑色，赢了，就去付午餐钱。不过有一次在世界扑克系列赛时，我下注100，200，400，800，1600，结果现金用光了。我从朋友那里借了3200，然后放下赌注，赌桌经理过来说这是你最后一次下注。哦不，我的朋友和我，我们大学时期有时候会去赌场为了喝免费的酒。你只需要坐在21点赌桌旁，下注一美元，边看边喝。这是很久以前的事了。假如你下注一美元，然后再两美元，你就可以喝上两三个小时，晚上还可以继续享受，赚个十五美元就收手。我有没有给你提过我在玩轮盘赌时输了一百万美元的事？

Oh what? me Nick you got to be about the names me It was me And oh you did tell me this you did tell me this. Yeah, this is so good Says guys have developed a system. It's full. Oh no That's always what happens before you lose a million And he says that it's like we need to risk a million we can win like two or three And it's like 99.996 So so I say to so are you really telling me that we just have to fade 0.004 chance of like total loss And he says yep Well, guess what hit the point zero zero four percent shot me And it was devastating. I just kept looking at this thing like what just happened He's like we lost yeah, and I was like there it is folks. I never again I've never gonna play roulette again I think the gambling analogies are the right analogies because I look I'm not saying World War three is gonna happen I've never said World War three is gonna happen I'm saying that there's a risk of World War three And I don't need the risk to be very high to be very worried about it because it would be such a disaster problem, right? Exactly. So I want to minimize risk of ruin. I want to exactly I want there to be hopefully a zero Risk of that, but you know what's interesting is remember just like a week or two ago President trump made that trip to dc And he met with biden in the oval office and biden had this he was like all smiles And i'm everyone's like wondering why is he so happy and the speculation was That he somehow wanted to comment a loser or something But now you think back on this he must have known he was about to authorize this decision So what he's doing here. He's green He's green trump. He knows he's about to give trump this horrible hand, right? He's about to make this situation in Ukraine so much worse So that trouble have to inherit this mess. That is like the definition of green Yeah, he definitely knew more than that picture let on because a lot of the interpretation of that picture was They are getting along. He's being super gracious. What an incredible gesture It just looked like very yeah He promised a smooth transition of power and then we find out that he didn't confer with his successor about this extraordinarily Meaningful decision to escalate the restoration. Yeah, it's like that's just crazy. It's crazy

哦，什么？我是Nick，你得谈谈那些名字。我就是那个人。哦，你确实告诉过我这个，是的，这太好了。有人说他们研发了一个系统，它已经满负荷运转了。哦不，这总是在你要损失一百万之前的情况。他说我们可能需要冒险投资一百万，可以赢得两三百万，成功率是99.996%。所以我说，你是说我们只需规避0.004%的总损失风险，他说是的。结果那0.004%的概率发生了，真是毁灭性的。我一直盯着这个东西看，心想刚刚发生了什么。他说我们输了，我当时想这就是了，以后再也不玩轮盘赌了。 我认为赌博比喻是合适的比喻，因为我并不是在说第三次世界大战一定会发生，我只是说有第三次世界大战的风险。这个风险不需要太高我就会非常担忧，因为这会是一个巨大的灾难，对吧？没错。所以我想要尽量降低破产的风险，我希望这个风险是零。但有趣的是，记得前一两个星期，特朗普总统去了华盛顿特区，并在椭圆形办公室会见了拜登，拜登满脸笑容。每个人都在想为什么他这么高兴，而猜测是他想说特朗普是个失败者或者什么的。但是回头看看，他很可能知道自己即将批准这个决定，所以他很高兴。他在给特朗普下套，他知道自己即将给特朗普一个烂摊子，对乌克兰局势雪上加霜，让特朗普不得不接手这个烂摊子。这就是典型的设陷阱。 他绝对比那张照片透露的知道得更多，因为那张照片的很多解读是他们关系很好，他表现得非常大度，真是难以置信的姿态。看起来就像是非常友好。他承诺了权力的顺利过渡，然后我们发现他没有和继任者商量这个意味深长的决定来加剧局势。这简直太疯狂了。

You guys want to do science corner. I got one for you. Yeah, yeah, let her in All right, your super fans are desperate for a science corner. Give them what free bird. Give him something All right, I will give you guys something here. Here's a depressing Paper that was published in the journal nature just this week Research team out of switzerland Going over to the swiss where they are conducting extraordinary research in the epigenetics of fat cells in Fat chamey on the science corner. Go ahead. Great. No, we're actually gonna understand perhaps why it is difficult for people that have been overweight Yes to keep the weight off. I did say this and I I think it's fascinating. Yeah, explain it It is it is really incredible. So remember we've talked about this many times in the past But every cell has your whole all your DNA all your genes and Certain genes are turned on or off in different cells and those genes being on or off differentiates those cells and causes them to act Differently That's the difference between an eye cell and a skin cell and a heart cell is they have different genes that are upregulated down regulated turned on and turned off And even when you have different kinds of cells you have certain genes that are over expressed or under expressed or over regulated or up regulated Downregulated so that means that those genes are turning pumping out certain proteins that do certain things in that particular cell

你们想做科学角落吧。我有个题材给你们。好的，好的，让她进来。好吧，你们的超级粉丝们对科学角落充满了期待，给他们一些内容吧。好，我会给你们一些内容。这是一个令人沮丧的论文，本周刚刚发表在《自然》杂志上。一个瑞士的研究团队在瑞士进行了一项关于脂肪细胞表观遗传学的非凡研究。我们来探讨一下科学角落的主题吧。这个研究或许能帮助我们理解为什么对于曾经超重的人来说，减重之后保持体重如此困难。我之前就提到过这一点，我觉得这真的很吸引人。是的，请解释一下。确实非常不可思议。记住，我们过去多次谈到过这个问题，但是每一个细胞都含有你所有的DNA和基因，而在不同细胞中，某些基因被激活或关闭，使这些细胞有了不同的功能。这就是眼细胞、皮肤细胞和心脏细胞之间的区别，它们的基因表达有所不同，一些基因被上调或下调，因而这些细胞会有不同的活动。即使是不同类型的细胞，它们某些基因的表达也可能过高或过低，这意味着这些基因在特定的细胞中负责合成某些蛋白质，执行特定的功能。

So what these folks did is they wanted to understand what is the epigenome meaning? What are the genes that are turned on or off or up regulated or down regulated in fat tissue and fat cells and Does the epigenome change When an individual loses weight so once they're obese And they lose weight do the fat cells actually change their epigenome or do they have an epigenetic memory Meaning that those cells even though the person has lost weight those cells Still continue to act as if that person were obese So i'll tell you in humans they basically took five individuals that were obese and lost more than 25 percent BMI And they looked at the epigenome they looked at the markers of what genes are up regulated and down regulated before and after they lost the weight After they lost the weight there were a set of markers that were still upregulated that are associated with poor metabolism And increased fibrosis and increased cellular death. So these are inflammatory genes These are genes that are associated with the cells being inefficient that utilizing glucose to create energy And so these cells continue to act like slow dying cells Even after the person lost weight and they did the same thing in mice and they found similar results that they caused these mice to gain weight looked at the epigenome of the fat cells and then looked at the epigenome after they lost the weight And again the mouse Epigemome continued to act as if the mouse was obese And what this means is that the metabolism remained reduced Fibrosis remained elevated and likelihood of cell death remained elevated So now they applied glucose in a petri dish to those cells and they saw that the glucose had a harder time being Fully being appropriately utilized from a healthy fat cell that hadn't been obese So it actually permanently alters and creates an epigenetic memory in the fat cells After obesity and this could explain Pretty significantly why when people that have been obese lose the weight They are more likely to gain the weight back and have a heart attack keeping the weight off

这些研究人员想要理解表观基因组的意义。他们想知道哪些基因在脂肪组织和脂肪细胞中是被激活或关闭的，以及这些基因是否在减少体重后会发生变化。具体来说，当一个人从肥胖的状态减掉体重后，脂肪细胞的表观基因组是否会发生改变，抑或保留一种“表观遗忘性记忆”，即使人在减肥后，脂肪细胞仍然继续表现得像肥胖时一样。 在一项研究中，他们对五名肥胖并且体重指数（BMI）减少了25%以上的人进行了研究，观察他们在减肥前后脂肪细胞的表观基因组变化。他们发现，即便在这些人减肥后，依旧有一组与代谢差、纤维化增加，以及细胞死亡增加相关的标记物被高度表达。这意味着这些细胞仍然表现出像肥胖时那样低效利用葡萄糖生成能量的特征，即便人在体重上减轻了。 同样的实验在小鼠身上也进行了：让小鼠增重，然后观察它们脂肪细胞的表观基因组变化。减肥后，小鼠的表观基因组仍然表现得像小鼠仍然是肥胖的状态。这意味着它们的代谢依然低下，纤维化和细胞死亡的可能性依旧很高。在实验中，他们在培养皿中给这些细胞施加葡萄糖，发现相比从未肥胖过的健康脂肪细胞，葡萄糖更难以被完全和适当地利用。 这说明肥胖能够永久改变脂肪细胞，创造一种“表观遗传记忆”。这可能很好解释了为何曾经肥胖的人在减重后容易再次增重并难以保持体重，甚至更容易发生心脏病。

You're referring to yes And that makes total sense because anybody who's added weight chamau if that you add but You know you eat one extra Oreo a week. That's 3500 You do that over 20 years all of a sudden you wake up one day or 20 30 pounds overweight Like I almost three or four years ago And this is where I think oh is epic and wagovian Wojnaw and all these things are so great because it does seem like it breaks you through that no Well, the problem what we do see in all those results that when you go off of the glp1 agonist grugs You gain the weight back very quickly. This is some amount of weight. Yeah, it's not a total amount It's a pretty significant bounce back effect. So I'm and this is pretty well documented And so I think that it speaks to the why now it also introduces an opportunity There are molecules that can turn certain genes on or off Can now be identified and utilized to change that epigenetic memory So now there's a that switch in addition to that switch Exactly. This could arise from things like increased exercise It turns out that when you do significant amounts of cardiovascular exercise There are certain genes that are expressed that trigger other genes to switch on or off And so we can start to identify those particular molecules and produce either supplements or Additional drugs or combo therapies that can both knock the weight off And keep it off by changing the epigenetic memory in those cells Wow And so it introduces a whole new class of opportunity For folks to explore how do we help folks that are obese lose the weight and then flip the switch that they can keep the weight off I've been doing rocking This is like the old man activity that peter a tier and these guys are all You put weight on and you like go walk I wear a I started with a 10 pound weight vest now i'm at 35 pounds I I do a mile and a half hike every day with 35 pounds on man. I fall asleep immediately and the the amount of Intensity that puts on your body. You do it right before you go to bed No, no, I do it anytime during the day, but i'm just saying it's it's i'm focused on four things right now with my health diet Sleep Exercise meditation and I try to do all four each day But the rucking specifically in this zone two stuff Is what they say 40 50 year old should focus on so that's what i'm focused on but that rucking Man, does it make your whole body strong? How they recommend it? It's really transformative My meditation is reading dojets For chamat polyapatia chairman dictator 8090 it's running a software company services company great.

你是说是的，这完全有道理，因为任何增加体重的人都知道这点。假如你每周多吃一块奥利奥饼干，那就是3500卡路里。持续20年后，你可能会突然发现自己超重了20到30磅，这就像我三四年前一样。这也是我觉得新药物和疗法，比如Wagovian和其他这些东西很棒的原因，因为它似乎能够打破这种增重的循环。问题是，我们发现，当你停止使用GLP-1激动剂药物时，你的体重会回升得非常迅速，这种反弹效果相当显著。这已经被相当多的研究文献证实了。这也让我想到，或许这也为我们提供了新的机会。 现在有一些分子可以通过打开或关闭某些基因来改变表观遗传记忆。除了这种开关机制外，现在可以识别和利用这些分子来实现减肥并防止反弹。这可以是通过增加运动量来实现的。研究表明，当你进行大量心血管运动时，某些基因会被激活，从而触发其他基因开关的开启或关闭。因此，我们可以开始识别这些特殊分子，并生产补充剂或药物组合疗法，不仅可以减轻体重，还可以通过改变细胞中的表观遗传记忆来保持体重。 这引入了一个全新的机会类别，让大家去探索如何帮助肥胖人士减重并保持体重。我一直在进行负重步行，这是像Peter Attia这些人推荐的“老年人活动”。你穿上加重的背心进行步行。我最初穿10磅的背心，现在增加到35磅。我每天背35磅走一英里半，而后立刻入睡。它给你的身体带来极大的强度。我不只在晚上进行，白天也可以，但我专注于健康的四个方面：饮食、睡眠、锻炼和冥想，每天都尝试做到这四点。其中，尤其是负重步行和低强度有氧运动，是据说40到50岁的人应该关注的，所以我就专注于这些。负重步行确实让你的全身更强壮，我非常推荐。这甚至是一种彻底的改变。我的冥想是通过阅读来实现的。Chama Palihapitiya是一个软件和服务公司的主席。

Look at you in the driver's seat David freidberg your sultan of science working on oh, halo and the architect the rainman Yeah, definitely david sak from craft ventures and Maybe he's gonna be involved in doj. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a saks doj Hook up in the future. I don't know i'm taking a guess here. I am Your host here Jason calicanis See you all on december 7th librarian person by the way, did you guys How do you see this spectacular? Did you see this tweet from brian johnson? He tweeted out all of his blood levels. This is Incredible. I love this guy. Look at these results are incredible if he can break this down into like a turnkey thing that mmm normal folks like us can follow for people who don't know What this kid's doing is he is spending like three million dollars a year or something to that effect on his own personal health Documenting it sharing it Everything from sleep to his bone density everything is an open book And uh, he's made some products out of it as well So you can you can eat his pudding to if you're interested in it, but I don't think it's as good as how do you follow his regimen? You know what I mean? Like it just seems too hard. You can't have a job I mean he's doing it's like he's got two jobs right now doing all this stuff his bio markers are showing he's 10 years younger than his actual biological age Dude look at some of these results his his speed of aging He says his birthday now happens every 19 months What the f*** Freeberg I mean freeberg do you you look at what do you think here science? Uh from a science perspective and he thought son all this Well, I think his nighttime erection rate is pretty impressive not three hours and eight minutes for a nighttime erection How does he is you reading because you're reading uh, elana vivica Oh He's reading it very slowly Wow, he's got a 240 pound bench press and an 800 pound leg press Jesus, he looks like he's dead though. That's the only problem with this

看你在驾驶座上，科学苏丹大卫·弗里德伯格，正忙于哦，光环和建筑师雨人。大卫·萨克斯来自Craft Ventures，也许他会参与DOJ（美国司法部）。如果将来看到萨克斯和DOJ合作，我不会感到惊讶。我只是猜测一下。我是你们的主持人杰森·卡拉卡尼斯。12月7日图书馆见！顺便说一下，你们看到了这个惊人的消息吗？你们看到了布莱恩·约翰逊的推文吗？他发布了他的所有血液指标。这太不可思议了。我喜欢这个家伙。看看这些结果太惊人了。如果他能把这些成果简化成一个普通人能遵循的方法，那就太棒了。对于不知道的人来说，他每年花费大约三百万美元在个人健康上，记录并分享他的一切，从睡眠到骨密度，他的一切都是公开的。他还基于这些开发了一些产品，所以如果你感兴趣，你也可以尝试。不过我觉得跟随他的做法非常难，几乎不可能有工作。他就像是在做两个全职工作。他的生物标记显示他的生物年龄比实际年龄小10岁。哥们，看看这些结果，他的衰老速度，他说他的生日现在每19个月才过。弗里德伯格，从科学的角度看，你怎么看？我觉得他夜间勃起时间非常令人印象深刻，长达三小时八分钟。天啊，他能按240磅的卧推和800磅的腿举。天哪，他看起来像是累坏了，这就是唯一的问题。

So pal sax has got to go DJT online too. We'll see you all next time In It's And it said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy Love you guys. I'm queen of kin Besties are Oh I'm going.

很高兴与大家分享。萨克斯一定要退出，DJT也在线上。我们下次再见。在这个过程中，我们向粉丝们开放了资源，他们都为此感到兴奋。爱你们。我是你们的女王。朋友们，我走啦。