A Monumental Policy Shift Just Started: Explaining Both Sides ⚡️

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, still in Lumis, quick shout out to my newest patron Dan. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. This did not take long, but members of Trump's team have told advisors they plan to make a federal framework for fully self-driving vehicles one of the transportation department's priorities. Current federal rules pose significant roadblocks for companies looking to deploy vehicles without wheels or pedals and large quantities, which of course Tesla plans to do. And the Trump team is now looking for policy leaders for the department to develop this framework to regulate self-driving vehicles.

欢迎来到Electrified，我是你们的主持人，仍在Lumis。首先感谢我的新赞助者Dan，感谢您选择支持这个频道。这并没有花很长时间，但特朗普团队的一些成员已经告知顾问，他们计划将制定一个关于全自动驾驶汽车的联邦框架作为运输部的重点之一。目前的联邦规定对那些希望大规模部署无方向盘或踏板车辆的公司构成了重大障碍，而特斯拉当然计划这样做。而特朗普团队现在正在寻求政策领导者，以为该部门开发这个框架，以规范自动驾驶车辆。

The transportation department, through NHTSA, can issue rules that would make it easier to run autonomous vehicles, but inactive Congress would clear the way for mass adoption of self-driving cars. A bipartisan legislative measure being discussed in early stages would create federal rules around AVs. One person under consideration for the Transportation Secretary is Emile Michael, a former Uber executive. While at Uber, Emile actually led some acquisitions that resulted in the creation of Uber's Autonomous Tech Group, and it was that group that was later sold to Aurora Innovation as Uber chose to focus on its core ride-hailing business. And so far, Emile has been the one overseeing the Trump transition team's automated driving policy work.

交通部门通过美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）可以制定规则，使运行自动驾驶车辆更加容易，但不活跃的国会则可以为自动驾驶汽车的大规模采用扫清障碍。目前，处于早期讨论阶段的一个两党立法措施将为自动驾驶车辆制定联邦法规。被考虑担任交通部长的人选之一是埃米尔·迈克尔，他是前优步高管。在优步工作期间，埃米尔实际上领导了一些收购，这些收购导致了优步自动驾驶技术集团的成立。后来，由于优步选择专注于核心的打车业务，这个小组被出售给了Aurora Innovation。到目前为止，埃米尔一直负责监督特朗普过渡团队的自动驾驶政策工作。

And I'm guessing it doesn't hurt that Emile has also previously invested in SpaceX. There are some other names being considered, but the word is we should hear a decision by the end of this week. I continue to say that this is a big deal for Tesla, but I'm still seeing plenty of people saying things like, Do you really think it's the regulations that are holding back Tesla's FSD progress? And to that, I would just say, well, so far, no, but that doesn't mean that they won't here in the near future. So let me just quickly try to drive this point home in a different way.

我猜想Emile之前在SpaceX的投资也有帮助。还有其他一些名字被考虑，但据说我们应该在本周末听到决定。我一直说这对特斯拉来说是件大事，但我仍然看到很多人说，比如，你真的认为是法规阻碍了特斯拉的FSD进展吗？对于这个问题，我只能说，到目前为止，并不是这样，但这并不意味着在不久的将来它们不会成为阻碍。因此，让我用另一种方式快速强调这一点。

Let's just go through the process of getting an AV permit in California. For starters, there are two different types of permits. You have a testing permit and the deployment permit. For the testing permit alone, you have some manufacturer requirements. You have to register with the California DMV to get that testing permit, and the company applying for the permit has to provide proof of insurance. All AVs must be equipped with a data recorder that captures and stores autonomous tech data for at least 30 seconds before a collision. All of the test drivers have to complete a training program, and manufacturers must report any accidents involving their test vehicles within 10 days.

让我们简单介绍一下在加州获取自动驾驶车辆（AV）许可证的流程。首先，有两种不同类型的许可证：测试许可证和部署许可证。对于测试许可证，制造商需要满足一些要求。你需要在加州机动车辆管理局（DMV）注册才能获得该测试许可证，申请的公司还需要提供保险证明。所有自动驾驶车辆都必须配备数据记录器，该记录器能在碰撞前至少30秒捕获并存储自动驾驶技术数据。所有测试驾驶员都必须完成一个培训项目，而且制造商需要在事故发生后的10天内报告涉及其测试车辆的任何事故。

They're required to submit annual disengagement reports detailing any instances when the AV technology disengaged during testing. Then you can move on to the deployment permit. It's at this point a company like Tesla would have to provide a law enforcement interaction plan as well as a consumer education plan. The vehicles then go through a testing process to ensure that they comply with the current industry standards for cybersecurity. The manufacturers have to conduct extensive testing, including simulations and controlled environment testing before even applying for this deployment permit.

他们需要提交年度脱离报告，详细说明在测试期间自动驾驶技术发生脱离的任何情况。接下来，他们可以申请部署许可。在这个阶段，像特斯拉这样的公司需要提供执法互动计划以及消费者教育计划。然后，车辆需要经过测试流程，以确保它们符合当前的网络安全行业标准。制造商在申请这个部署许可之前，必须进行广泛的测试，包括模拟测试和受控环境测试。

Then the manufacturers have to put together a lengthy report where they specify the operational design domain of the vehicles, things like road types, speed limits, and weather conditions under which the AVs can operate. And then only after those steps are done can a company submit an application to the California DMV with all of the required documentation. And of course the timeline for all of this will vary based on many factors, but generally speaking it can take from several months to over a year from initial application to approval. So bear in mind that's just a high level overview of what would be required for a company like Tesla in one state. Before going any further we have to acknowledge there is a chance that this federal framework fails to come to fruition.

然后，制造商需要编写一份详细的报告，说明车辆的操作设计域，包括道路类型、限速以及自动驾驶车辆可以运行的天气条件。只有在完成这些步骤之后，公司才能向加州机动车辆管理局提交包含所有必要文件的申请。当然，这一过程的时间线会因许多因素而有所不同，但一般来说，从最初申请到批准可能需要几个月到一年以上。因此，请记住，这只是对于特斯拉这样的公司在一个州所需要求的概述。在进一步讨论之前，我们必须承认，这个联邦框架可能无法实现的风险。

That's because during Trump's first term there was actually an attempt to pass some federal legislation to regulate AVs but it ultimately failed. The bill passed the House of Representatives easily but it ran into a bunch of trouble in the Senate. And at the time here were the main arguments against that bill. Some senators and consumer advocacy groups were worried about the safety of deploying a large number of AVs without sufficient testing and safeguards. At the beginning of Biden's term there was actually an attempt to merge that bill with other legislation but that failed when some manufacturers tried to include a language that would prevent consumers from suing or forming class action cases.

之所以这样，是因为在特朗普的第一个任期内，曾尝试通过一些联邦立法来规范自动驾驶汽车（AVs），但最终未能成功。 该法案在众议院轻松通过，但在参议院遇到了许多麻烦。 当时，反对该法案的主要理由有：一些参议员和消费者权益团体担心在没有足够测试和安全措施的情况下，大量部署自动驾驶汽车的安全性。 在拜登任期初期，确实有尝试将该法案与其他立法合并，但因为一些制造商试图加入一项条款，阻止消费者提起诉讼或集体诉讼，这一努力失败了。

And as we've talked about a few times in the past, NHTSA right now allows manufacturers to deploy 2,500 self-driving vehicles per year under a granted exemption. With the bill they were trying to pass before they were asking for as many as 100,000 AVs per year but there was no consensus agreement on the appropriate scale and pace of this AV rollout. In case you want to look up the bill on your own it was the AV start act and it was denied in the Senate in December of 2018. And from what I could find most of the concerns at the time were raised primarily by Senate Democrats.

如我们过去几次讨论过的，目前NHTSA允许制造商在特许豁免下每年部署2,500辆自动驾驶汽车。之前他们试图通过的法案中，要求每年部署多达100,000辆自动驾驶汽车，但对这一规模和推出速度没有达成一致意见。如果你想自己查找这项法案，它是AV起步法案，于2018年12月在参议院被否决。据我所知，当时大多数担忧主要是由参议院民主党人提出的。

And one of the main questions they had at the time that will definitely be brought up this time as well is the federal preemption of state laws and how that's going to work. Even Gene Munster who has definitely been skeptical of Tesla at times to say the lease said the likely loss of the $7,500 AV tax credit is chump change when you compare it to Tesla capitalizing on its autonomous future. That future took a large step forward with Trump's transition team planning to make regulating self-driving vehicles a top priority. And he called this a massive opportunity.

他们当时最关注的问题之一是联邦法律对州法律的优先权，这次也肯定会再次被提出来。即使是有时对特斯拉持怀疑态度的Gene Munster也说道，与特斯拉在自动驾驶未来上的获利相比，失去7500美元的自动驾驶汽车税收抵免只是小钱。随着特朗普的过渡团队计划将监管自动驾驶汽车作为首要任务，这一未来向前迈出了一大步。他称这是一个巨大的机会。

And people don't talk about things like this much but there have been Wall Street analysts that have said things like certain states may actually require that to get these robot taxi licenses you have to actually have LIDAR on board. Which of course would be a problem for Tesla. It should go without saying but Elon doesn't have the time to work with every state to go over the details of how this regulation should work. However if there was federal legislation it would be a one and done type opportunity for Elon to have a significant impact on those regulations.

人们很少谈论这样的话题，但有华尔街的分析师表示，某些州可能会要求为了获取机器人出租车的许可证，必须在车上配备 LIDAR 设备。这对特斯拉来说当然是个问题。不言而喻，埃隆·马斯克没有时间与每个州逐一商讨这些法规的细节。然而，如果有联邦立法，那么埃隆就有机会通过一次行动对这些法规产生重大影响。

So just keep in mind we still have plenty of questions about this. There's no guarantee this legislation ever gets passed. But to hear that it's a priority for the Trump team and it's something they're already working on rather than just something we were hoping to see is a huge step forward the way I see it. California loves regulation. But they have a pathway. Yeah I mean there's a pathway obviously Waymo operates in California so there's just a lot of forms about a lot of approvals that are required. I mean I'd be shocked if we don't get approval next year but it's just not something we totally control. But I think we will get approval next year in California and Texas and towards the end of the year it will branch out beyond California to Texas.

请记住，我们对这件事仍有很多疑问，并不能保证这项立法会通过。不过，了解到这是特朗普团队的一个优先事项并且正在着手处理，而不仅仅是我们希望看到的事情，这在我看来是一个巨大的进步。加州对法规情有独钟，但他们有一个明确的路径，毕竟Waymo已经在加州运营。然而，在这里要获得许多批准需要填写大量表格。如果明年拿不到批准我会很惊讶，不过这并不是我们完全能控制的事情。但我认为明年我们将在加州和德州获得批准，并且到年底会从加州扩展到德州。

I mean I think it's important to reiterate this like all of you that are fighting a vehicle at the federal level in the US is done by meeting FOVSS regulations. All our vehicles today that are produced that are autonomous capable meet all those regulations the cybercatalymp of regulations and so the deployment of the vehicle to the road is not a limitation but is a limitation is what you said at the state level where they control autonomous vehicle deployment some states are relatively easy as you mentioned for Texas. And so other ones have had place like California that may take a little longer. Other ones hadn't set up anything yet and so we will work in those state by state and get the.

我的意思是，我认为需要重申这一点：在美国，所有能够在联邦层面运行的汽车都必须满足FOVSS（联邦车辆安全标准）法规。我们目前生产的所有具备自动驾驶能力的车辆都符合所有这些法规，包括网络安全方面的法规。因此，车辆上路的部署没有限制。然而，限制在于各州对自动驾驶车辆部署的控制，正如你提到的，有些州相对来说比较容易，比如得克萨斯州。而其他州，比如加利福尼亚州，可能需要更长时间。另外，有些州还没有建立相关法规，因此我们将在各个州逐步推进并解决问题。

I do think we should have a federal. I agree that like autonomous vehicles should be approved. There should be possible to. A counter is if you're listening let's get a federal ABA. There should be a federal federal approval process for autonomous vehicles. I mean that's how the FMBSS is. It started to work. Federal motor vehicle. The F&F and FMBSS is federal.

我确实认为我们应该有一个联邦级的法规。我同意无人驾驶汽车应该获得批准。我们应该有可能实现这一点。如果有人在听，让我们制定一个联邦级的ABA。应该有一个联邦级的无人驾驶汽车审批流程。我是说，这就是FMBSS的运作方式。FMBSS是联邦机动车安全标准，它就是这样开始发挥作用的。

Yeah so I mean in 2017 and 18 that we. You know so when the regulators started looking at it and it's really kind of stalled since then but we would appreciate and would support helping out with those. It really needs to be not at like a national rule is important. You know if there's a Department of Governor efficiency I'll try to help make that happen. I did it for everyone. It just has like this. But you know just we like some some things in the US are state by state regulated like for example insurance and it's like it's incredibly painful to do it state by state for 50 states and I think we should have this should be a national approval process for autonomy.

好的，我的意思是，在2017年和2018年期间，当监管机构开始关注这个问题时，这件事情就真的有些停滞了。但是，我们会很乐意并愿意支持解决这个问题。这真的需要成为一项全国性的法规，这是很重要的。你知道，如果有一个政府效率部门，我会努力促成这一点。我是为了大家这么做的。但你知道，美国有些事情是按州来管理的，比如保险，这样需要在50个州一个一个去做，过程非常痛苦。我认为我们应该为自动化（自治技术）制定一个全国性的审批流程。

As Elon said on the call having states control AV deployment just leaves a lot more that's outside of Tesla's control. So clearly moving this to the federal level would reduce the number of things that are outside of Tesla's control significantly. And of course this would be great news for the entire autonomous industry but as we know there's only one company that this would be a major accelerant for and that's Tesla.

正如埃隆在电话中所说，由各州控制自动驾驶车辆的部署，会让许多事情超出特斯拉的控制范围。因此，将其转移到联邦层面显然会显著减少特斯拉无法控制的因素。当然，这对整个自动驾驶行业来说都是个好消息，但我们知道，这件事对特斯拉的推动作用会格外显著。

Reason being they're the only company that already has a fleet of millions of vehicles on the roads that may be capable of unsupervised FSD and they also have the production capacity to make millions of these AVs every year profitably. I think there's a realistic chance it would take three to five years for Tesla to get autonomous approval in all 50 states as there's likely to be at least a few laggards in a few states where the leadership is adversarial toward Elon or toward Tesla or they're just not composed of forward thinkers. We also might get an increase in the deployment cap of 2500 AVs per year or the cap may be removed altogether. And as mentioned Elon is likely going to have significant input on how this federal legislation is written and there's no one else I'd rather have in that role. Someone intimately familiar with autonomous tech who put safety first and understands the value of proper regulation but also understands the pitfalls of over regulation. And all of this is part of why this federal regulation could be such a game changer for Tesla.

之所以这样说，是因为他们是唯一一家已经在路上拥有数百万辆车队，可能具备不需要监督的全自动驾驶能力的公司，同时他们也有能力每年高效盈利地生产数百万辆这样的自动驾驶车辆。我认为，特斯拉在全美50个州获得自动驾驶批准可能需要三到五年的时间，因为在一些州，可能会有少数领导对埃隆·马斯克或特斯拉持对抗态度，或是不具备前瞻性思维。此外，我们每年部署2500辆自动驾驶汽车的上限可能会提高，或者这一限制将被完全取消。如前所述，埃隆可能会对联邦立法的制定产生重要影响，而我也希望由他来承担这一角色。因为他深入了解自动驾驶技术，始终将安全放在首位，理解适当监管的重要性，同时也了解过度监管的弊端。所有这些因素导致这项联邦监管可能成为特斯拉的重大转折点。

There was some sentiment on X from people like PD and Naomi that the Model X is simply not big enough for certain families. Naomi said we need big Teslas for big families to which Elon said okay and then Rabbi Litvin said now please make a Tesla big enough for my family to which Elon said the Tesla Robovin the Robovin is in development some other things too. I know many people would love to see a proper three row SUV from Tesla something like a suburban or a Tahoe or a Rivian R1s. So what about something like a cyber SUV instead of having the volt you can just remove that and have a third row still with plenty of storage. When it comes to what these other things could be your guess is as good as mine.

在社交平台X上，有些人，如PD和Naomi，认为Model X对某些家庭来说不够大。Naomi表示我们需要更大的特斯拉来应对大家庭，Elon回应说好的。然后Rabbi Litvin说请再设计一款足够大的特斯拉适合我的家庭，Elon回复说特斯拉的机器人货车正在开发中，还有其他一些东西。我知道很多人希望看到特斯拉推出一款真正的三排座SUV，比如类似Suburban、Tahoe或Rivian R1s的车型。那么，为什么不考虑推出类似Cyber SUV的车型，移除蓄电池后，还能有第三排座椅，并且仍有充足的储物空间。至于这些其他的东西是什么，只能猜测了。

On the Tesla configurator you can now lease an entry level Model 3 and Model Y with the same down payment for the exact same amount excluding gas savings of $299 per month. That's with 3000 down for 36 months and 10,000 miles. Heading over to the Model Y you see the exact same numbers and the same starting lease price. As we all know by now the main problem that Tesla has with its leases is they don't allow customers to buy out the vehicle at the end of the lease. In my opinion until Tesla does that which by the way I don't think they're going to do I don't think Tesla's lease rates will ever be significant. A big question was anybody able to secure the Tesla bot action figure for $40 when it went on sale yesterday. It is currently out of stock.

在特斯拉的配置器上，你现在可以租赁一辆入门级的Model 3和Model Y，两者所需的首付金额相同，月租金不包括节省的油费，每月为299美元。这是基于3000美元的首付，租赁期限为36个月，每年行驶1万英里。当你查看Model Y时，会发现租赁条件和起始价格完全一样。众所周知，特斯拉租赁的一大问题在于租约结束时不允许客户购买车辆。依我看，除非特斯拉改变这一政策（尽管我认为他们不会），否则特斯拉的租赁价格不会有吸引力。另一个问题是，昨天有人能以40美元的价格买到特斯拉机器人的手办吗？目前已经缺货了。

Sawyer shared this if you missed it it looks like for the 2025 version of the Model Y the rear camera design gets a bit of an upgrade with the actual housing for the camera being a bit more pronounced. It's tough to tell from this angle how far the new housing actually comes out relative to the surface of the camera but it's clearly more pronounced than the outgoing model year design. The zero emission transportation association which represents some major automakers has been urging Trump not to kill the tax credits for EV sales and production. The members of this group include LG, Tesla, Uber, Lucid and Panasonic but it's clear that the group does not speak on behalf of all of its members because Tesla has reportedly come out and said they're in support of removing the tax credits. The group said the production tax credits have driven enormous job gains in states like Ohio, Kentucky, Michigan and Georgia and mourned killing those production and consumer tax credits would undercut those investments and hurt American job growth. And the director of Zeta said the tax credits are critical to actually compete and win against China.

莎耶尔分享了这一消息，如果你错过了，看起来2025款的Model Y后置摄像头设计有了一些升级，摄像头外壳明显更突出。从这个角度很难看出新外壳相对于摄像头表面的具体凸出距离，但显然比旧型号的设计更明显。零排放交通协会代表一些主要汽车制造商，一直在敦促特朗普不要取消电动车销售和生产的税收减免。该团体的成员包括LG、特斯拉、优步、Lucid和松下，但显然该团体并不代表所有成员的立场，因为据报道，特斯拉表示支持取消这些税收减免。该团体表示，生产税收减免在俄亥俄州、肯塔基州、密歇根州和乔治亚州创造了大量就业机会，并对取消这些生产和消费税收减免表示担忧，认为这样做会削弱这些投资并损害美国的就业增长。Zeta的负责人表示，这些税收减免对于真正与中国竞争并获胜至关重要。

The next few months really are shaping up to be quite interesting from a policy perspective. Tesla stock closed the day at $338.74 up 5.62% while the Nasdaq was up 0.6%. The volume today was 27% higher than the average. A heads up my schedule is pretty crazy right now just know I'm doing my best to balance family and work in this very unique season of life. And over the next two weeks we'll be traveling for a wedding and then packing, cleaning and heading back home. The good news is after the week of Thanksgiving things should be back to normal from a schedule perspective for electrified but until then it's looking like there will only be a few more uploads at best. So thank you all ahead of time for understanding. Hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did you can find me on X-linked below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.

从政策角度来看，接下来的几个月确实会非常有趣。特斯拉股票今天收盘为338.74美元，上涨5.62%，而纳斯达克指数上涨0.6%。今天的交易量比平均水平高出27%。提醒一下，我现在的日程非常忙碌，但请大家放心，我会尽力在这个非常特殊的生活阶段中平衡家庭和工作。在接下来的两周里，我们将去参加婚礼，然后打包、清理并回家。好消息是，感恩节那一周之后，我的日程安排应该会回归正常，但在那之前，预计最多只能上传几次内容。所以提前感谢大家的理解。希望你们度过美好的一天。如果你喜欢这个视频，请点赞，你可以在下面的链接找到我，非常感谢我的所有Patreon支持者。