Markets Weekly November 2, 2024

Hello my friends, today is November 2nd and this is Markets Weekly. So this past week, not a great week in markets, we've got a lot of chop, but still some interesting things to talk about. First, this past week the UK government unveiled their new budget and the markets did not like it. Are the bond visionantes back again? Secondly, this past week we also had Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement, which was pretty uneventful, but they did show some interesting research between the intersection of Treasury market and crypto. Let's talk about what they're saying. And lastly, this coming week we have the very consequential November presidential elections in the US and markets are bracing for impact. Let's see what's in the price and what could be the potential market outcomes.

你好，我的朋友们，今天是11月2日，这里是《市场每周》。过去这一周，市场表现不佳，波动较大，但仍有一些值得讨论的有趣话题。首先，上周英国政府公布了新预算，市场反应不太好。债券市场的看法是否又回来了？其次，上周财政部宣布了季度再融资计划，虽然总体上波澜不惊，但他们展示了一些关于国债市场与加密货币之间关系的有趣研究。我们来谈谈他们的说法。最后，下周美国将进行具有重大影响力的11月总统选举，市场正在做好应对准备。我们来看看目前的市场定价以及可能的市场结果。

Alright, starting with the UK. Now before we start, let's level sit a little bit. Now over the past few years, the market governments have been barring a lot of debt and getting barring and spending, such that their debt to GDP has been steadily climbing and for the most part, the market really hasn't cared. To be clear, the relationship between fiscal deficits and market reaction, there's no hard and fast rule. It really varies. Every country is different and of course, market sentiment matters as well.

好的，从英国开始。现在在开始之前，让我们稍微理清一下。过去几年里，市场中的政府借了很多债，进行借款和支出，以至于他们的债务与GDP的比率一直在稳步上升，而大多数情况下，市场对此并不是很在意。需要明确的是，财政赤字和市场反应之间并没有固定不变的规则。每个国家的情况都不一样，当然，市场情绪也很重要。

For example, let's say that a Latin American country stood up and announced that they would have fiscal deficits of about 7% for the foreseeable future. If they were to say that, I feel pretty confident that their bond yields will shoot up, their currency would depreciate and their stock market would tank. Basically classic fiscal crisis stuff. But at the same time, I say the United States does the exact same thing and nothing seems to happen.

例如，假设某个拉丁美洲国家宣布，他们在可预见的未来将有大约7%的财政赤字。如果他们这样说，我很有信心地认为，他们的债券收益率会急剧上升，货币会贬值，股市会暴跌。这基本上就是典型的财政危机。然而，另一方面，如果美国也做同样的事情，却似乎什么都没有发生。

Or for example, not too long ago, let's say in China, Chinese government and economies not doing very well, announced a big set of monetary and fiscal stimulus. The reaction to that, and as we've discussed before, when we have fiscal stimulus, you're basically just printing fiat currency. In a fiat system, sovereign debt is basically just interest that pays money that pays interest.

例如，不久前，中国政府和经济形势不太好，宣布了一大套货币和财政刺激措施。对此的反应，就像我们之前讨论过的，当实施财政刺激时，基本上就是在印制法定货币。在法币系统中，主权债务基本上就是支付利息的货币在支付利息。

But when China does it, obviously, they're depreciating their currency, but you have a very strong reaction where the R&B strengthens and their stock market shoots up. The market is seeing that the economy is depressed and the government spending is going to stimulate the economy so create more growth. They're able to produce more goods and services, even as the government issues more debt.

这段话的大意是：但是当中国这样做的时候，显然他们正在贬值他们的货币，但却出现了人民币走强和股市上涨的强烈反应。市场认为经济低迷，而政府支出将刺激经济，从而创造更多增长。他们能够生产更多的商品和服务，尽管政府发行了更多的债务。

In that case, again, more fiscal deficit, positive market reaction, positive currency reaction. Again, context really matters when you're making this judgment. Going to the UK, not too long ago in the UK, they had a mini fiscal crisis already. Minister Liz Truss, the Prime Minister at the time, announced a pretty loose fiscal budget, a whole bunch of tax cuts, and led to a bond market revolt that eventually required the Bank of England to step in and save the day.

在这种情况下，再次出现更多的财政赤字，市场反应积极，货币反应也积极。但做这种判断时，背景真的很重要。说到英国，不久前，他们已经经历了一次小型财政危机。当时的首相伊丽莎白·特拉斯宣布了一项相当宽松的财政预算，包括一系列减税措施，结果引发了债券市场的反抗，最终需要英格兰银行出手干预才得以解决。

And Liz Truss is no longer Prime Minister. So this past week, the policymakers there were on notice as to what could happen. So there was a lot of attention on the budget to be unveiled by Chancellor Rachel Reeves. The budget she unveiled was larger than the market expected. It was a pretty loose budget. They would say that it's to invest in the UK.

丽兹·特拉斯不再担任首相。因此，过去一周，那里的政策制定者都密切关注可能发生的事情。于是，财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯公布的预算备受关注。她公布的预算比市场预期的要大，是一个相对宽松的预算。他们表示，这是为了投资于英国。

So how are you going to finance that? Again, part of it is going to be taxes and part of it is going to be debt issuance. Now the government there made notable hikes to taxes such that taxes as a percentage of GDP in the UK is going to go to all-time highs. But even that tax increase was not enough to finance the spending. So they also had issued a whole but they're anticipated to issue a whole bunch of debt higher than the market expects.

那么，你打算如何筹集资金呢？其中一部分将通过税收来实现，另一部分则通过举债。现在，英国政府已经大幅提高了税收，使税收占国内生产总值（GDP）的比例达到历史新高。但即便如此，这次的税收增加仍不足以覆盖开支。因此，他们还发行了一大批债券，预计债务规模将超过市场预期。

The market reaction to this was immediate. I guilt sold off, yields rose, and the pound depreciated and the equity markets did not like it. Again, overall the market reaction wasn't super intense like Delix Trust moment, but it did bear very clear signs of what you would say lack of confidence slash fiscal crises. So now taking a step back again. Now this behavior is something we seem to be seeing more and more.

市场对此的反应是立竿见影的。我感到内疚地卖出了债券，收益率上升，英镑贬值，股市也不满意。不过，总体来看，这次市场反应不像德里克斯信托事件时那样强烈，但确实显现出明显的信心不足或财政危机的迹象。所以，让我们再退一步来看一下。现在，这种表现似乎越来越常见。

Now just last month looking at their neighbor, France, they also soon be having some symptoms of some kind of fiscal issue. Now France has a fiscal deficit of about 6%. No surprise they have a very generous welfare system there and historically have had a pretty large fiscal deficit. But they're also very highly taxed. It's just that the tax revenue is not enough to pay for all the benefits. So when the Treasury official, Michelle Barney, announced their budget last month, including a whole bunch of tax increases, now the reaction seems to be higher bond yields. Again, there's going to be a muted currency reaction as they are part of the European Union, one part of a much, much bigger union.

上个月看看他们的邻国法国，也显示出了一些财政问题的迹象。法国目前的财政赤字大约是6%。这并不奇怪，因为他们的福利制度非常慷慨，而且历史上财政赤字就一直比较大。不过，他们的税收也很高，但税收收入不足以覆盖所有福利支出。所以，当财政官员米歇尔·巴尼宣布上个月的预算时，其中包括一系列增税措施，反应似乎是债券收益率提高。由于法国是欧盟的一部分，作为一个更大联盟的一部分，货币反应可能会比较平缓。

Now if you look at French bond yields over the recent history, you notice that they've been steadily rising such that they are about the same level as Spanish yields. Now not too long ago, we had a European sovereign debt crisis and Spain was considered periphery. France was considered core. Now today France yields are about comparable to Spain. So you do see it seeming that the market is becoming more concerned about the debt by some countries.

如果你查看最近法国债券的收益率，你会注意到它们一直在稳步上升，目前已经和西班牙的收益率差不多。在不久前的欧洲主权债务危机中，西班牙被认为是外围国家，而法国被视为核心国家。然而，现在法国的债券收益率与西班牙相当。这说明市场对于某些国家的债务问题变得更加担忧。

Now I think one major concern of the market is growth. So again, looking at the Chinese example, when you use your whole bunch of debt, but you still have a lot of growth, then maybe the market is not as concerned because you could eventually have more goods and services produced and that could make the debt burden more manageable. But looking in the European countries, there's just not a lot of growth. And we've talked about this when we discuss the Draghi plan, a lot of the problem comes down to low productivity, which has to do with the relatively less advanced technology in the European Union. So again, technology is really what you need to be able to have productivity. If you have technology, again, you can produce more goods and services with the same amount of inputs.

现在我认为市场的一个主要关注点是增长。以中国为例，当你使用大量的债务，但仍然保持高速增长时，市场可能没那么担心，因为随着生产的商品和服务增多，债务负担可能会变得更易管理。但在欧洲国家，增长不多。我们在讨论德拉吉计划时提到过，其中一个大问题是生产力低下，这与欧盟相对不太先进的技术有关。技术是提高生产力的关键。如果你拥有技术，就可以在相同投入的情况下生产出更多的商品和服务。

Technology, looking across the world, big tech is largely in the US. AI largely in the US. Europe has some good technology companies as well, but it doesn't seem like there's as much technology there as well. And so that's really impacted their productivity. And so the market seems to be more and more concerned with what's going on there. Now, the market also seems to be somewhat concerned with what's happening in the US. Bony Utes have risen notably over the past few weeks. Part of that could be due to anticipated fiscal deficits in the event of a Trump victory. But note though, that even as Utes increase in the US, the dollar strengthens and the equity market does fine. So there's still, I think, confidence from the market in growth in the US that could potentially help pay off the debt.

从全球来看，科技行业主要集中在美国，大型科技公司大多在美国。人工智能领域也主要在美国。欧洲也有一些不错的科技公司，但似乎技术发展并没有那么多。这确实影响了他们的生产力。因此，市场越来越关注欧洲的情况。同时，市场对美国的动态也有一定关注。最近几周，美国的国债收益率显著上升。这一部分可能是因为预期特朗普胜选可能导致财政赤字增加。但需要注意的是，即使美国的债券收益率上升，美元仍然保持强势，股票市场表现良好。因此，我认为市场对美国经济增长仍有信心，这种增长可能有助于偿还债务。

But it seems like we're moving into a world where there are different fiscal regimes where the market is going to look at countries differently. And that's a big departure from the past and something that is definitely we should focus on going forward. All right. The next thing I want to talk about is this really interesting research done by the US Treasury, done by the Treasury Barring Advisory on the relationship between crypto and the Treasury market. So no, periodically we have the Treasury Barring Committee basically announcing their quarterly estimates as to how much money they're going to borrow. But at the same time though, they also announced research on questions that the Treasury is interested in.

看起来，我们正进入一个这样的世界：不同的国家采取不同的财政政策，市场将以不同的方式看待各个国家。这与过去有很大的不同，是我们今后应该关注的重点。好，接下来我想谈谈美国财政部进行的一项非常有趣的研究，该研究是由财政违约顾问就加密货币与财政市场的关系所进行的。通常，财政违约委员会会公布他们每季度借款的预估，同时他们也会发布关于财政部感兴趣的问题的研究成果。

And this quarter's questions was on the relationship between the Treasury market and crypto. And they have some pretty interesting findings. Now first off, one of the things that they're noting where they're trying to make that connection is that in the crypto market, there's a tremendous growth in stablecoins. All right. In the crypto world, people like to hold stablecoins, USD stablecoins specifically, and then use that as collateral or maybe just like a money market fund. Now one thing about these stablecoins is that they hold a lot of trad fine assets. Now the research notes that for example, looking at Tether, they seem to own a lot of Treasury bills and repo that I presumably is also backed by Treasury collateral as well.

这季度的问题是关于国债市场和加密货币之间的关系。他们得到了一些相当有趣的发现。首先，他们注意到一点，就是在加密货币市场中，稳定币的增长非常迅速。在加密货币世界里，人们喜欢持有稳定币，特别是美元稳定币，然后将其用作抵押品，或者类似于货币市场基金的用途。有一点需要注意的是，这些稳定币持有大量的传统金融资产。研究指出，例如，查看Tether时，他们似乎持有大量的国库券和回购协议，而这些回购协议大概也是由国债作为担保的。

So that's one potential linkage this research finds, whereas that as the crypto space grows, as the stablecoin universe grows, we could have a lot more stablecoins holding Treasury collateral to collateralize your stablecoins. And that could potentially be a stability issue because crypto was notoriously volatile. So you could have a lot of people, let's say, pouring into Tether or other stablecoins or withdrawing and that could internally lead to them buying or selling Treasury's. Now personally, I don't find this persuasive at all since bills are super liquid, but it is one thing that they pointed out as a potential nexus.

所以，这项研究发现的一个潜在联系是，随着加密货币市场的增长，特别是稳定币市场的扩张，可能会有越来越多的稳定币持有国债作为抵押。这可能会成为一个稳定性问题，因为加密货币市场以波动性著称。很多人可能会大量投资于Tether或其他稳定币，或者大量撤出资金，这可能会导致它们内部买入或卖出国债。但是，我个人并不认为这有说服力，因为国债的流动性非常高。不过，他们确实指出了这可能是一个潜在的联系点。

Now the next interesting thing they talked about, interestingly talked about is how distributed ledger technology could potentially be applied in the Treasury market. So the way that things work right now in the Treasury market is that there is just one ultimate ledger that records all the securities that records all the Treasury securities and it's held at the Federal Reserve. So for example, let's say that the US government issues a security, well, the person who owns that security, his name is recorded in a database controlled by the Federal Reserve. But in practice, though, you're not really eligible to be recorded in that database. The database is only open to specific participants, for example, to banks.

他们提到的下一个有趣话题是分布式账本技术如何可能应用于国债市场。目前国债市场的运作方式是，所有国债证券只记录在一个总账上，这个总账由美联储持有。举个例子，如果美国政府发行一项证券，那么持有这项证券的人的名字会被记录在美联储控制的数据库中。但实际上，你并没有资格直接被记录在这个数据库中。这个数据库只对特定参与者开放，比如银行。

So what actually happens in practice is that if I buy a Treasury security, then a custodian bank holds it and the custodian bank then turns around and records it on the Fed's ledger. So on the Fed's ledger, it will show the custodian bank owning the Treasury and on the custodian banks ledger, it will show me owning the Treasury. So it is a centralized system and there are different levels to it, kind of similar to our payment system. Now one way we could have this distributed ledger technology come and improve the Treasury market is we would make it if we would make it as if everyone was on just one ledger. So instead of, let's say, being worried about errors that the custodian bank could have on their ledger or maybe the Fed could have, what if everyone was on one ledger and then maybe that could have some kind of efficiencies. And maybe these could be programmable such that you could revolutionize some products that are related to Treasury like repo.

实际上，当我购买国债时，一家托管银行会持有它，然后托管银行会在美联储的账本上记录这笔交易。在美联储的账本上，会显示托管银行持有该国债，而在托管银行的账本上，则显示我持有该国债。这是一个集中化的系统，与我们的支付系统类似，有不同的层级。我们可以通过分布式账本技术来改善国债市场，实现这一点的一种方法是让所有交易都在一个账本上记录。这样，就不必担心托管银行或美联储在其账本上出现错误。这种集中记录可能带来一些效率上的提升，并且这些账本有可能是可编程的，从而彻底改革与国债相关的一些产品，比如回购协议。

Now in repo, again, let's say that I'm blending cash receiving Treasury as collateral. Maybe there could be some kind of smart contract where I could specify the types of Treasuries that I'm willing to receive as collateral. Maybe I only, I don't want self as too liquid or maybe I don't want self that has too much interest rate risk. And maybe I want to program at such that I get my money back specific time the next day. Right now that stuff is done again through the custodian banks platform or negotiate through a broker. But if I could have some kind of smart contract programming in, then maybe that again saves costs, makes it more efficient. Maybe it makes it more secure as well. So those are potential ways that you could have this distributed ledger technology come and help the Treasury market.

现在在回购协议中，假设我用现金换取国债作为抵押品。也许可以有一种智能合约，让我具体说明愿意接受哪种类型的国债作为抵押品。也许我不希望接受流动性太高的，或者不希望接受利率风险过高的国债。同时，我可能希望编程设定在第二天的特定时间收回我的资金。现在这些操作通常是通过托管银行平台或与经纪商协商完成的。但如果我能通过智能合约编程实现这些操作，可能会降低成本，提高效率，甚至提高安全性。所以，这些是区块链技术有可能帮助国债市场的方式。

Well, but one other thing that I noted was that in thinking about this, the researcher is pretty confident that the type of treasury type of technology that would use would definitely definitely be private ledger and definitely not be permissioned and private. So in thinking about these ledger technologies, you can think about it. It could be like Bitcoin where it's a public ledger. One can see what transactions are happening, totally transparent. And in addition, it could be permissionless like Bitcoin where anyone can set up a node and validate transactions.

好的，不过我注意到的另一件事是，研究人员相当有信心他们会使用某种类型的财务技术，这种技术肯定会是私有账本，并且绝对不是授权的和私有的。在考虑这些账本技术时，你可以想象它像比特币那样是一个公共账本，人们可以看到所有交易，完全透明。此外，它也可能像比特币那样是无许可的，任何人都可以设置节点并验证交易。

So that kind of decentralized thing is one of things that is very attractive to this kind of technology because if it's decentralized, no one can control it. Maybe people feel safer with it. The findings in this research was pretty adamant that if we do have something like this, it definitely has to be private and it definitely has to be permissioned. The rationale for this is that, well, if you have a decentralized ledger, it's vulnerable to hacking. I don't know if that's true. It seems like Bitcoin manages fine. But I think the other point is that if it's decentralized, the government would say that there's a lot less, let's say, there's a lot more compliance issues. So there's a lot less safety and so forth.

这一类去中心化的东西对这种技术很有吸引力，因为如果是去中心化的，就没有人能够控制它。也许人们会因此感到更安全。这项研究的结果非常坚决地指出，如果我们有这样的东西，它一定要是私密的，并且必须获得许可才能使用。其原因在于，去中心化的账本容易受到黑客攻击。我不确定这是否属实，毕竟比特币似乎运作得很好。但我认为另一个观点是，如果是去中心化的，政府可能会觉得合规性问题会更多，从而导致安全性下降等问题。

You could potentially have money laundering and so forth going forward to this. But ultimately, it's probably about maintaining control over the system. For example, let's say that we had a decentralized permissionless system. Even when the government didn't like someone and wanted to cut them out of, say, the treasury market or something like that, they wouldn't be able to do that. So at the end of the day, if there is some kind of decentralized ledger technology when it comes to the treasury market, it will ultimately still be, even though it's a distributed ledger, it will still be centralized among certain key participants.

你可以潜在地遇到洗钱等问题。但最终，这可能更多是关于对系统的控制。比如，如果我们有一个去中心化的无许可系统，即使政府不喜欢某人，想要把他们排除在国债市场之外，也无法做到。 所以说到底，即便在国债市场中引入某种去中心化的账本技术，最终它仍然会在某些关键参与者之间保持中心化。

So the government would still be able to have control and do what they want. So that kind of makes this whole thing a lot less interesting in the sense that I'd probably never be able to just have some kind of tokenized treasury where you could individually transact and send it to someone else. If there is distributed ledger technology, it would be in the back end among certain participants used to save costs for them. And the last thing I want to talk about is the upcoming presidential election. So right now, the betting market slightly favored Trump. And looking at the polls, Nate Silver, again, very, very good analyst on the subject in his motto also gives Trump the slight edge. But again, it's only a slight edge. The race really seems to be based on these measures to be more or less a coin toss.

因此，政府仍然能够保持控制并按照他们的意图行事。从这个角度来看，这让整个事情变得不那么吸引人，因为我可能永远无法拥有某种可以单独交易并转给他人的代币化国库。如果采用分布式账本技术，它也只会在后台供某些参与者使用，以帮助他们节省成本。最后，我想谈谈即将到来的总统选举。目前，博彩市场略微偏向特朗普。从民调来看，Nate Silver是这一领域非常优秀的分析师，他的预测模型也略微倾向于特朗普。不过，这只是一个微弱的领先。根据这些衡量标准，竞选似乎更像是一场势均力敌的对决。

But the outcomes though, depending on who wins, could be very different. There's a lot of analysis that suggests that a president Trump victory would suggest much higher fiscal deficits and the return of more tariffs, whereas a vice president Harris victory would be more of the status quo. Now, the suggests that Trump victory would have meaningful impact on the markets. For example, if we were to have much higher fiscal deficits, that obviously suggests higher interest rates. The market seems to be sensitive to that. And of course, President Trump famously measures his performance by the stock market. So I would expect him to do things to try to top the stock market up. President Trump has also noted to be very friendly towards Bitcoin. So you could see higher crypto prices. And of course, because President Trump is vocal about his love for tariffs and did use a lot of tariffs his first term, that could have impacts on currency after all. It seems like when President Trump puts tariffs on another country, their currencies don't do well.

结果可能会因赢家是谁而大相径庭。有很多分析表明，如果特朗普胜选，总统任期可能会出现更高的财政赤字，关税政策也会再次出现；而若哈里斯副总统获胜，则会维持现状。分析指出，特朗普的胜选将对市场产生显著影响。例如，如果财政赤字大幅增加，显然利率会上升，市场对此很敏感。当然，特朗普总统一向以股市表现来评判自己的业绩，所以我预计他会采取措施来推动股市上涨。此外，特朗普总统也表示对比特币很友好，因此加密货币价格可能会上涨。当然，由于特朗普总统对关税情有独钟并且在第一个任期内使用过很多关税，这可能会对货币产生影响。毕竟，似乎特朗普总统对其他国家实施关税时，这些国家的货币表现不佳。

And because there is this potential here in the markets, we see the markets bracing for impact. Now, looking at, for example, the VIX, the VIX is pretty elevated at about 20, even though the equity markets are not too far from all time highs. Now, VIX is a measure of implied volatility, which is just basically the cost of an option. It seems like the market is paying up to hedge for potential outcomes. Not just in case, let's say, we have a context as the election or it draws on for some time, such that there's equity downside. But maybe we have significant upside as well through the outcome of the election, which is something that I'm going to write about this week. Now, if you look at the interest rate markets, so looking at the move index, which is like the VIX for interest rate markets, the VIX, the move index is constructed based on implied volatility on interest rate futures.

由于市场上存在潜在风险，我们看到市场正在为冲击做准备。比如说，VIX指数目前大约在20水平，尽管股市并没有远离历史最高点。VIX是隐含波动率的衡量指标，基本上可以理解为期权的成本。看起来市场在花钱对冲可能的结果。这不仅是为了防范可能的情况，例如选举或者选举持续一段时间导致股市下跌。不过，也有可能通过选举结果获得显著的上涨机会，这是我本周要讨论的内容之一。再看看利率市场，比如说move指数，它就像是利率市场的VIX。move指数是基于利率期货的隐含波动率构建出来的。

You also see the move index very elevated. Of course, if we do have a present Trump victory, and in addition to that, if the Republicans control Congress, you could really see the potential for significant deficit spending and the interest rate markets simply bracing for that, where you could see, say, a much more hawkish Fed due to increased fiscal spending and also increased term Crimea sending the 10-year yield higher. Looking at FX markets, you see the implied fall in the USD and Mexican currency pair also pretty elevated. Now, one thing that happened during Trump's first term was through all this tariff negotiations and so forth, we did see the Mexican pace of depreciate. And so if you have tariffs, say, on the European Union or so forth, that's going to be negative for EU growth. It's going to lead to more dovish monetary policy over there and likely big currency moves.

你还会看到移动指数非常高。当然，如果特朗普胜选，同时共和党控制国会，你可能会看到大规模赤字支出的可能性，这也会影响利率市场，人们会为此做好准备。这可能会导致美联储变得更加强硬，因为财政支出的增加以及克里米亚问题的影响，可能会推高10年期国债收益率。 观察外汇市场，你会发现美元和墨西哥比索的隐含波动性也相当高。在特朗普的第一个任期内，由于关税谈判等因素，墨西哥比索曾经贬值。所以，如果对欧盟征收关税之类的事情发生，这将不利于欧盟的经济增长，可能导致那里的货币政策更加宽松，并引起货币的大幅波动。

So I would think that if we did have it from victory, we would have a notably stronger dollar. So there's potential, again, this Tuesday that for us to have, find out what happens and further to be really, really big market moves. And certainly that's what the market is bracing for. Also note, though, that we could have not much happening and so all this volatility premium comes out of the markets. And historically, that's also been some fuel that could move markets as well. So again, this Tuesday, coming Tuesday, prompts us to be a very, very exciting week and I personally can't wait. And also, of course, this coming week, we have Fed, but honestly, who's thinking about that, but I'll still come back and offer my Fed debrief. So in any case, that's all I prepared for today.

因此，我认为，如果我们因为胜利而获得某种优势，美元将会显著走强。因此，这个星期二我们可能会看到市场出现重大变化，这也正是市场所期待的。但也要注意，可能什么都不会发生，这样市场中的波动溢价就会消失。从历史上看，这种情况有时也会推动市场走势。因此，本周二将会是一个非常令人兴奋的时间，我个人非常期待。当然，本周我们还有美联储会议，不过说实话，现在可能没有太多人在考虑这个，但我仍然会为您提供我的美联储会议解读。总之，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。