Tesla Q3 Earnings Report Coverage & Analysis (Q3-24)

Today, I know many of you are joining live. If you are checking this out afterward, you can check out the timestamps below. We'll fast forward then to when earnings actually come out, some of the financial review and things like that as well. So definitely looking forward to earnings today. It's good to be back. Obviously the last time we would have done an episode would have been for the last earnings report.

今天，我知道很多人会在直播时加入。如果你是之后来看这个的，可以查看下面的时间戳。我们将快进到实际发布财报的时候，以及一些财务审查等内容。所以，我非常期待今天的财报。很高兴回到这里。显然，我们上次做节目应该也是为了上次的财报发布。

So quite a bit has happened since then. We'll spend a few minutes here before market close and before the earnings report comes out to chat about some of those things. If anyone has questions for me, feel free to put those in the chat right now and I'll take a look at some of those as we go.

自那时起，发生了不少事情。在市场收盘前和收益报告发布前，我们会花几分钟时间来聊聊其中的一些事。如果有人有问题想问我，可以随时在聊天中提问，我会在过程中查看并回答一些问题。

Hopefully everything's working okay though. I'm always a little bit nervous when doing this since it only happens every three months. Make sure the audio's good. But definitely looking forward to it. Obviously the stock down a bit today, 1.6% right now, still a little bit before market close, but as you can see here, we're performing identically to the NASDAQ right now, which when you consider Tesla's beta is actually an outperformance of what Tesla's beta normally would be.

希望一切都能正常运作。我总是有点紧张，因为这种事情每三个月才发生一次。务必确认音频效果良好。不过，我确实很期待。很明显，今天股票略微下跌，目前下跌了1.6%，距离市场收盘还有一段时间。不过正如你所看到的，我们现在的表现和纳斯达克指数完全一致，这考虑到特斯拉的贝塔值，这实际上已经表现得比特斯拉的正常贝塔值要好。

So, obviously we've seen a bit of a decline in the share price since the Wii Robot event on October 10th. But at least for today, this seems to be more of a market move than anything related to earnings. But of course the biggest move will happen after earnings. So, as we usually do, we'll go through the report as always not any financial advice contained in there, but happy to share some of my thoughts as we get those things.

显然，自从10月10日的Wii机器人事件后，我们看到股价有所下跌。不过，至少今天来看，这更像是市场行为，而不是与公司收益有关。当然，最大的变动会在收益报告发布后发生。因此，按照惯例，我们会像往常一样查看报告，其中不包含任何财务建议，但很乐意与大家分享我的一些看法。

So, I'm gonna just take a look at the chat here, but I think of course people are gonna be curious about the Robot taxi event. I did get a chance to go to that. So did get a chance to go in the cyber cab and do one of the test drives there. I think Tesla announced that they did over 1,300 unsupervised rides that evening, which is great to see. Obviously closed course at Warner Brothers Studios.

所以，我现在要看看聊天记录，但我觉得人们肯定会对机器人出租车活动感到好奇。我确实有机会参加了那个活动，还坐上了赛博出租车进行了一次试驾。据我了解，特斯拉宣布当晚进行了超过1300次的无人监督乘车体验，真是令人兴奋。当然，这一切都是在华纳兄弟影城的封闭场地进行的。

And I think for those of us that have followed the progress with FSD, not anything terribly surprising in terms of that functionality in an environment like that. But just for people that may not be aware of this, it wasn't necessarily just like you're going and it's this predefined route and things like that. There were definitely people walking around and things that were complicating the environment more than a normal closed course might be. And they also, when you got into the cyber cab, let you select from a few different destinations, I think there were three or four that you could choose to go to.

我认为，对于那些关注FSD（全自动驾驶）进展的人来说，在那种环境中使用这种功能并没有什么特别令人惊讶的地方。不过，对于那些可能不了解的人来说，这并不是说你就是在一个预定义的路线中行驶之类的。周围绝对有人在走动，这使得环境比普通封闭场地更复杂。此外，当你进入"网络出租车"时，他们让你从几个不同的目的地中选择，我记得有三个或四个可供选择的目的地。

So it wasn't just one predetermined route, there were multiple routes. And then obviously as cars go throughout the night, they are sitting for different periods of time and departing at different periods of time. So there are things that are a little bit more complicated rather than just like you're getting in this one car and it's going in this one spot at the exact same time with no interference. There were other things to manage throughout the night that seemed like Tesla managed very well. So that part of it was exciting.

所以这并不是只有一条预定好的路线，而是有多条路线。显然，随着汽车在夜间行驶，它们会在不同的时间停留和出发。因此，情况比「只坐一辆车在固定时间到达特定地点而没有干扰」要复杂一些。整个晚上有其他需要处理的事情，而特斯拉似乎对此管理得很好。这一部分很令人兴奋。

In terms of the overall just vehicle, I was really impressed with it. I think it was roughly what I expected. I mean, from the Walter Isaacson biography, obviously we got that sort of side profile view of prototype. This vehicle very closely aligns with that. So I didn't think anything with the design was too surprising. I definitely expected two-seater, no steering wheel, things like that. There's definitely a lot of cargo space here, which I think will be really nice.

整体来说，我对这辆车印象非常深刻。我觉得这与我的预期大致相符。我是说，从沃尔特·艾萨克森的传记中，我们显然看到了原型车的侧面图。这个车辆与之非常相似。所以我觉得在设计上没有什么太令人惊讶的。我确实预料到会是两座的，没有方向盘之类的东西。这里的确有很大的储物空间，我觉得这一点非常好。

I'm sure people have read things about the two-seat design. I think it completely makes sense with I think 90% of trips being just one occupants. For those that are more, obviously there will be Model 3, there will be Model Y, SNX, Cybertruck, et cetera. So there will be a variety of vehicles that are available on a future Tesla network. Should that come to fruition?

我相信大家已经读过关于两座设计的文章。我认为这非常合理，因为大约90%的出行只有一名乘客。对于那些需要更多座位的情况，显然会有Model 3、Model Y、SNX、Cybertruck等车型。因此，将来如果特斯拉网络实现的话，会有各种不同的车型供选择。

This vehicle would really be primarily meant for the vast majority of trips that are just single person. Maybe it's going to work, just going to get groceries, whatever the case may be, things like that. So I'm definitely happy with that choice to do two-seeds. And overall the vehicle, I mean, it looks really cool. I think obviously there's a lot of thought that went into the production process. If you look at the interior, it's extremely simple interior, but when you're actually in the vehicle, it was very comfortable.

这款车主要是针对大多数只有一个人出行的情况设计的。可能是去上班，去买菜，或者其他类似的活动。因此，我对选择设计双座车型感到非常满意。总体来说，这辆车看起来真的很酷。我想，显然在生产过程中考虑了很多因素。如果你看看车内，设计极为简洁，但实际上乘坐时非常舒适。

It feels like a premium experience because what you're comparing it to is an Uber ride. So unless you're getting an Uber Black or something like that, then this is going to be a much, much better experience. And even then, I would personally prefer an experience like this. You have this giant screen right here, which is really nice. Of course, Tesla's going to put effort into sound quality and all of those sort of things as they usually do. So the entertainment value will be good and just not having to deal with another person and a stranger driving you around. I think most people will find that to be also a premium experience, but obviously ultimately this should significantly lower the cost. So hopefully you're getting a more premium experience lower cost with a Robotaxy service like this. And obviously that's kind of the whole of your grill for Tesla to be able to take pretty much all of that market potentially. So I was excited with the design.

这感觉像是一种高端体验，因为你在和Uber的服务相比。如果你不是乘坐Uber Black之类的服务，那么这种体验会好得多。即便是我个人也更倾向于这样的体验。你可以看到这里有一个巨大的屏幕，真不错。当然，特斯拉一向注重音质等方面，所以娱乐效果会很好，而且不必和陌生人一起，或者被其他人开车带你到处跑。我想大多数人会觉得这也是一种高端体验。但是显然，这种服务最终应该显著降低成本。因此，希望通过这种自动驾驶出租车服务，你可以以更低的成本享受到更高端的体验。而且显然，这也正是特斯拉希望潜在地占据几乎整个市场的关键。我对这个设计感到很兴奋。

I guess one of the things that I wonder about is the width of the door opening here. So Tesla obviously went with the hinge upward doors. It's not clear exactly how far those open relative to what a normal door design would be. I think what Tesla's probably doing here is wanting to get it up and out of the way of maybe curbs or things like that that would maybe most commonly impact sort of a Robotaxy environment. Because these vehicles are probably not going to be going into parking spaces all that often. So hopefully the width of the door isn't really all that important. Obviously if you're getting out and maybe there's traffic on one side of the vehicle that could be a concern. But you can always just get out the other side like you would with an Uber or something like that. So hopefully it's not too big of a deal. But one thing to think about certainly, and again, I think Tesla has certainly thought about that and probably made this design to help avoid sort of those lower obstructions that maybe people wouldn't be as aware of when exiting a vehicle.

我想我好奇的一件事情是这里车门开启的宽度。显然，特斯拉选择了向上打开的铰链门。还不清楚它们相对于普通车门的设计会打开得多远。我觉得特斯拉这样做的原因可能是想避免车门与路牙石或其他类似障碍物的碰撞，这些冲撞在自动驾驶出租车环境下可能是最常见的。因为这些车辆可能不太经常停入停车位，所以希望车门的宽度不是特别重要。当然，如果你在下车时一侧有来往车辆，那可能会是个问题。但你可以像乘坐Uber那样从另一侧下车。所以希望这不是什么大问题。不过这确实是值得考虑的一点，我相信特斯拉肯定已经考虑过这个问题，并可能通过这种设计来避免乘客下车时不太注意到的低矮障碍物的碰撞。

So yeah, I was happy with the event. Robovan, I think it looks awesome. I think there's definitely a use case for that type of a vehicle. I'm kind of writing it off for now because I just think that this is going to be the priority obviously, CyberCAD and developing the software to get that operational. That's what matters the most. So that's going to be the focus. I think Robovan is just an exciting concept that could potentially come years after that. So I'm putting that sort of on the back burner on the horizon. It's nice to see Tesla's concept for it, but we've seen concept vehicles like the Roadster and the CyberTruck that have taken many years to come to fruition. So I certainly don't expect the Robovan on any sort of very quick timeline.

所以，我对这个活动感到满意。Robovan这个概念看起来很不错，我认为这种类型的车辆确实有市场需求。不过，目前我有点将它放在一边，因为我觉得现在的优先事项显然是CyberCAD以及软件开发，使其能够顺利运行。这是最重要的事情，也是当前的重点。我觉得Robovan只是一个激动人心的概念，可能需要几年之后才会实现。所以我把它放在稍后的计划中。能够看到特斯拉的这个概念很不错，但我们也看到了像Roadster和CyberTruck这样的概念车，花了很多年才实现。因此，我确实不期望Robovan能在短时间内问世。

So those are kind of my thoughts on the event. Outside of that, Optimus, I mean, phenomenal progress there. Now, obviously there was some teleoperation going on probably in terms of selecting different types of movements. I'm not sure exactly to what extent I think Tesla's confirmed that a little bit too. And then I think of course the voice interactions, those seem like they were just people talking through the bot. I think Tesla was more demonstrating just the progress in hardware and then trying to give an overall vision of what this is going to lead to because even integrating a large language model today, something from XAI most likely, it wouldn't be too far off of what we saw. Now, still a lot of ways to go to really feel like human interaction, but for those that have fallen kind of the AI space, and certainly what chat GPT has done recently with their voice mode, it's not a stretch to think about integrating that into Optimus. And that's I think what Tesla's kind of trying to demonstrate where this is all going.

所以，这就是我对这次活动的一些想法。除此之外，关于Optimus，我认为它取得了显著的进展。显然，在选择不同类型的动作方面，可能有一些远程操作。我不确定具体到什么程度，我想特斯拉也承认了这一点。然后，我想到当然语音互动的时候，那些看起来就像是人们通过机器人进行的交流。我认为特斯拉更多地是在展示硬件的进步，并尝试给出一个整体愿景，说明这将引向何方。即使是当今整合一个大型语言模型，比如来自XAI的产品，与我们所看到的也不会相差太远。尽管距离真正实现像人类的互动还有很长的路要走，但对于那些已经关注人工智能领域的人来说，尤其是了解ChatGPT最近的语音模式成就的人，把这些功能融入Optimus并不是一个遥不可及的想法。我认为这就是特斯拉试图展示的未来方向。

And then just in terms of the hardware, again, I think tremendous progress. It wasn't too long ago where Optimus was really just a person in a suit. And then of course, about a year after that, Tesla I think brought it out on stage. And of course it's tethered and going slowly and things like that. And now just a couple of years later, we've got, I think there were like 20 of them. Maybe I'm getting mixed up with the cybercab number, but something in that ballpark out and about untethered, interacting with people. So it shows Tesla's confidence in the progress of the hardware, which I think has been really, really fast paced over the last couple of years. And I think it was a positive surprise from that event. So a lot to be excited about with Optimus, lots to be excited about with cybercab.

在硬件方面，我认为取得了巨大的进展。回想不久前，Optimus 还只是一个人在穿着套装表演。然而，大约一年后，特斯拉就把它展示在了舞台上。当时这个机器人是需要连接线的，动作也很缓慢。但是仅仅过了几年，现在我们看到的，可能有大约 20 个左右的机器人在活动。也许我跟 Cybercab 的数量搞混了，但大概就是那么多，它们可以不受束缚地与人互动。这显示了特斯拉对硬件进步的信心，我认为过去几年中这方面的发展速度非常之快。那次活动让我感到惊喜，对 Optimus 和 Cybercab 都充满期待。

As I posted when the cybercab or when the Rubik's XE event was delayed though, for me, it's interesting to see the hardware. I'm excited about the vision of the future. Ultimately it still comes down to can the software get the job done? And that is what we're watching with the progress of FSD. So that's the most important thing. Relating to any of this, Optimus, a little bit separate, the hardware progress there is extremely important. But for me, what's most important for the entire Tesla story right now is that FSD progress. And I think that's been happening. Hopefully version 13 is another step forward. I know we've got a lot of things going on in Texas in terms of bringing more compute online.

我之前也提到过网络出租车或Rubik's XE活动推迟时，对我来说，观察硬件的发展还是很有趣的。我对未来的愿景感到兴奋。不过最终还是要看软件能否做好工作。这就是我们关注FSD（全自动驾驶）的进展的原因。因此，这才是最重要的。和这些相关的还有Optimus，虽然稍微不同，硬件的进步也非常重要。但对我来说，现在整个特斯拉故事中最重要的还是FSD的进展。我认为这方面已经在取得进步了。希望第13版能更进一步。我知道我们在德克萨斯州有很多项目在进行，比如增加更多的计算能力。

And I'm sure we'll read a little bit more about that in the earnings reports today. But event or no event, that I think is the most important area of focus right now, is just getting that completed. So we'll continue to monitor FSD progress very closely. All right, did see a couple of super chats in here. Thank you guys for that. Let's see. Do you have comments on your experience of FSD? Yeah, for sure. So I think, you know, I've talked before about version 12, specifically 12.3.6.

我相信我们今天在财报中会读到更多相关内容。不过，无论有没有特别事件，我认为现在最需要关注的就是完成那项任务。因此，我们会继续密切关注FSD（全自动驾驶）进展。好的，我看到这里有几个超级留言。谢谢大家！我们来看看。你对FSD的体验有什么看法吗？当然有。我之前谈过关于版本12，特别是12.3.6。

That was kind of the, you know, initial neural network version. That version for me was a massive, massive step forward here in Chicago. I posted a couple of videos of those, you know, on St. Patrick's Day, my experience there and a huge step forward. Since then, it seems like the progress has been a little bit slower. It's really tough to tell though, because 12.3.6 didn't necessarily have kind of like the speed control issues that we're starting to see in these later versions, which are much more inconvenient on sort of a day-to-day usage level. So a lot of the time when I feel like I'm making some adjustment, it's related to, for me, going under the speed limit. That's not how people drive in Chicago, obviously.

那是最初版本的神经网络。对我来说，那一版本在芝加哥是一个巨大的进步。我在圣帕特里克节的时候拍了几个视频，记录了我在那里的体验，这真是一大进步。自那以后，进展似乎慢了一些。不过很难确定，因为12.3.6版本并没有像我们在后来的版本中看到的那种速度控制问题，而这些问题在日常使用中会更加不便。所以很多时候，当我觉得自己在调整某些东西时，其实是因为我在低于限速行驶。而在芝加哥，人们显然不是这么开车的。

So that's been more where I've had to intervene. And then that kind of distorts my perception of like how well the system is doing. But that doesn't mean that there hasn't been progress or that it's not operating in a safer way. Certainly both of those things could be true. It's just more difficult for me to kind of make that assessment when I am having to kind of intervene for speed reasons. I've got hardware three, I don't think end-to-end on the highway is out on hardware three yet. So I haven't been able to test that out, but excited for that, that's obviously another huge milestone that probably wouldn't be appreciated enough. You know, widely speaking.

所以，这是我必须介入的地方。这有点扭曲了我对系统性能的感知。但这并不意味着没有进步或系统没有以更安全的方式运行。当然，这两者都可能是真的。只是当我因为速度原因不得不介入时，很难进行这样的评估。我使用的是硬件三，我认为目前硬件三还不能在高速公路上实现端到端自动驾驶。所以我还没有办法测试这一点，但我对此感到兴奋，这显然是另一个巨大的里程碑，虽然可能不会被广泛地足够重视。

So I'm excited to eventually try that out. I may have to upgrade to a hardware four car here as they're starting to deviate a little bit. I've definitely been pondering that. If anyone wants to use my referral code, it's in the link that maybe helps push me over the edge because obviously Tesla just suggested the referral program a bit. So we'll see. I wouldn't be shocked if I do upgrade this quarter though. It would probably be a Model 3 again. So Cybertruck doesn't really make sense for my use cases in Chicago, unfortunately, as much as I would like to. We're gonna cleanse things for the super chat. Thank you, Shami, appreciate that.

我很期待能够最终尝试一下。我可能需要将这里的硬件升级到四车，因为它们开始有些偏离。我一直在考虑这个问题。如果有人想用我的推荐码，它在链接里，这也许能帮助我做出决定，因为显然特斯拉刚刚调整了推荐计划。所以拭目以待吧。如果我在这个季度升级，我不会感到惊讶。很可能我还会选择Model 3。尽管我很喜欢Cybertruck，但对我在芝加哥的使用来说，并不是很合适。感谢大家的超级聊天，谢谢你，Shami，我很感激。

But yeah, we've got a couple of minutes till market close here. We'll look through the chat for some other questions and then hopefully we'll get into the earnings report just a few minutes after that. I feel like half this chat is like politics right now. The election won't be over soon. Why haven't you known FST transfer to hardware four? I'm considering it. I'm very strongly considering it. Okay, so before market close, let's just hop over to Excel, so we can do a little preview of what we'll talk about later. As we normally do, once the earnings report comes out, we'll go through the shareholder letter, then we'll take a closer look at the financials, put it into the sort of simplification summary sheet here. Just quickly looking at sort of analyst consensus expectations, they are expecting a bit of an improvement on the bottom line from last quarter up from 52 cents, non-gap earnings per share up to about 60 cents. I've seen it seems like, I don't know, kind of whisper or consensus seems to be like a little bit lower than that. My expectations, I haven't done it as a detail of a forecast this quarter. I'd probably expect a little bit lower than that too, but you never really know when you're talking bottom line and we've talked about this many times, but sometimes it's overrated in terms of it's important in terms of it's importance.

好的，我们还有几分钟就到市场收盘时间了。我们会看看聊天中是否有其他问题，然后希望能在几分钟后深入了解财报。我感觉聊天内容一半都是在谈政治。选举不会很快结束。为什么你不知道FST转移到硬件四？我在考虑，非常认真地考虑。在市场收盘前，我们可以先打开Excel，预览一下待会儿要讨论的内容。像平常一样，一旦财报发布，我们会先看股东信，然后仔细查看一下财务状况，把它整理到简化的总结表里。关于分析师的普遍预期，他们预计最近一季度的每股收益会从52美分增至60美分左右，表现有所改善。我看到一些预测比这略低。这个季度我没有做详细的预测，但我也预计会稍微低一点。说到底，要预测底线是很难的，这一点我们已经讨论过很多次，但有时其重要性被夸大了。

Like last quarter, for example, there was the $622 million restructuring charge and there was $890 million in regulatory credits. Neither of those things are something that we would expect to be consistent on a go forward basis. They don't really have that much to do with the fundamental health of the business, but they have massive impacts on the bottom line. So I think the bigger number to focus on is automotive gross margin X credits, as usual, that's a little bit more of an indicator of the health of the business.

就像上个季度一样，例如，有6.22亿美元的重组费用，还有8.9亿美元的监管积分。这些都不是我们预期会持续发生的事情。它们并不真正反映业务的根本健康状况，但对净利润有巨大影响。因此，我认为更值得关注的数字是汽车销售毛利率（不包括积分），这通常更能体现业务的健康状况。

And we've continued to see that decline over the last couple of quarters. So I think people are gonna be looking for that to stabilize or at least not decline as quickly. Tesla did a lot of things with financing last quarter. So it'd be interesting to see how that comes through. And then as Cybertruck ramps up too, that's gonna affect average selling price, cost to get sold, auto gross margins, as that becomes a bigger part of the total.

在过去的几个季度中，我们持续观察到这种下降趋势。因此，我认为人们会希望这种趋势能够稳定下来，或至少不要下降得那么快。特斯拉在上一季度做了一些融资方面的调整，因此看看这些措施的效果会很有趣。随着Cybertruck的生产提升，这也会影响平均售价、销售成本和汽车的毛利率，因为它将在整体销售中占据更大的比重。

But we're still pretty early in the ramp, right? So there's still a lot of progress on cost to be made. I would assume that they're close to break even, maybe just continuing to lose money in the third quarter. And then this fourth quarter, obviously we've seen the transition from foundation series into just the normal pricing. So there's gonna have to be a significant progress on costs to offset that decline in average selling price for Cybertruck this quarter, which again will continue to be more impactful as it grows as a percentage of the total vehicle deliveries. All right, so markets closed. Let's see, I'll switch back over to the browser. I'll see if earnings comes out yet. Sometimes I feel like the stock price is the best place to see if it's actually out because sometimes the website doesn't, don't get excited, that's Q2.

我们还处于初期阶段，对吧？所以在降低成本方面还有很大的进展空间。我猜他们接近盈亏平衡，可能第三季度还是继续亏损。到了第四季度，我们显然看到基础系列转变为正常定价。因此，本季度必须在降低成本方面取得显著进展，以应对Cybertruck平均售价的下降，这一影响会随着其在总车辆交付中占比的增加而变得更大。好的，市场已经收盘。让我切换回浏览器，看看财报是否已经出来。有时候我觉得股价是最好的指示，因为网站有时反应不及时，不过不要激动，那是第二季度的数据。

Sometimes the website doesn't update immediately, at least on my end. So we'll keep refreshing the shareholder website. This is Q2, I just have the same URL here for Q3, that seems to be the quickest way to usually get it. But we'll keep an eye on it here. Let's read it through the chat while we wait here for a minute. FSD Montreal, thank you, appreciate that. We'll appreciate that. Cheryl just meeting, yes, that would have been a while ago. I can't remember, but I do appreciate it. And Bill as well, thank you. All right, a little movement after hours, probably nothing release related yet.

有时候网站不会立刻更新，至少在我的这边是这样。所以我们会继续刷新股东网站。这是第二季度的，我这里也有第三季度的相同网址，这似乎是通常最快的方式获取信息。但我们会继续关注。我们可以在这里等一下，通过聊天阅读一下。谢谢你，FSD蒙特利尔，感激不已。谢丽尔刚刚开会，是的，那应该是很久以前的事了。我记不太清，但我很感激。还有比尔，谢谢。好吧，盘后有一点动静，可能还没有与发布相关的内容。

But we'll keep watching. This is the last few quarters, as you usually got in and out pretty quickly after market close. I guess just last comments before we head into it. I don't have any high expectations for this quarter. We just had a massive product event. Like I said, FSD is the kind of the biggest focus here. Maybe afterward, if someone can try to remind me, if I don't remember, we can talk more about some of the sort of like other vehicle plans, because I've got some thoughts on that, just that have been rolling around my head since the Robotaxi event. So we can definitely talk about that.

但我们会继续关注。这是过去几个季度的情况，因为你通常在市场收盘后很快就进出。我想就在我们进入正题之前说几句。我对这个季度没有太高的期望。我们刚刚举办了一场盛大的产品发布会。正如我所说，FSD（全自动驾驶）是这里最大的关注点。也许之后，如果我忘记了，有人可以提醒我，我们可以更多地讨论一些其他车辆计划，因为自从Robotaxi活动以来，我脑海中一直在思考这个问题。所以我们肯定可以聊聊这个。

But my expectations, again, they're not anything crazy here. People get really excited about earnings, what Tesla might say, what we might learn, which is great. We always love getting the updates, but at a certain point, we gotta also understand this is a required quarterly report. And the purpose of it is really just to update us on what has happened and not to give us any juicy tidbits necessarily about what's coming in the future. But we'll see. Looks like maybe something is out here.

我的期望并没有很高。很多人对特斯拉的盈利报告感到非常兴奋，想知道特斯拉会说些什么，我们会了解到什么，这当然很好。我们都喜欢获得最新的信息，但我们也需要明白，这其实只是一个必需的季度报告。它的目的主要是更新我们关于过去发生的事情，而不一定会透露关于未来的精彩内容。不过我们拭目以待，看起来可能会有一些新信息出现。

All right, up 4%. So yeah, here we go. I'm gonna scroll down to the outlook section first. It's a little bit different than we normally would, but I just wanna see what's going on there. So I'm gonna also put Q2, just so we have this for comparison and we'll see. So plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for startup production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform, as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle lineup. This approach will result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected, but enabled us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex-efficient manner during uncertain times. This should help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to 3 million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth. Over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines, our purpose-built Robotox taxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary unboxed manufacturing strategy. So this looks to be probably identical language to the Q2 report there. So let's just again check in how the share price is doing. So a little bit of a pop there, up about 4% still. So let's go back and look through just a quick look at the financials. So we can see one of the reasons that things might have increased a bit. Earnings per share was 72 cents on a non-GAAP basis. So it was above the 60 cents consensus on the non-GAAP line. And then gap earnings per share, 62 cents, so no surprise there. Those are usually about 10 cents difference, just based off of stock-based compensation. So nothing too crazy there. Let's check out the revenue line, which was at 25,182, that compared to analysts' consensus of 25,290, so slightly below about $100 million or so. But operating margins, I can already see off the bat, it was about a 7.5% expectation from analysts. This is 10.8%. So really healthy operating margin there. Gap growth margin looks like it's probably a beat as well, which is probably helping drive that bottom line stuff. So we'll see as we go through what's driving those things, but it does look like at least pretty decent financial results so far.

好的，上涨了4%。所以，我们来看一下。我们先看看前景部分，虽然这有点不同于我们的常规做法，但我想看看那里的情况。为了比较，我们还要看看第二季度的情况，以及结果如何。关于新车计划，包括更实惠的车型，生产按照计划将在2025年上半年启动。这些车辆将采用下一代平台和当前平台的一些特色，并能够在与现有车辆相同的生产线制造。尽管与之前预期相比成本减少更少，但这种方法使我们能够在不确定的时期以更有效的资本支出方式谨慎地增加产量。这将有助于我们充分利用当前接近三百万辆的最大产能，实现超过50%的增长，而无需投资新生产线。我们的定制自动驾驶出租车产品将继续采用革命性的无盒制造策略。看起来这与第二季度报告中的语言应该差不多。现在再看看股价表现，略有上涨，仍然上涨约4%。现在回过头来快速查看一下财务情况。我们可以看到一些可能导致增长的原因。非GAAP每股收益为72美分，高于非GAAP预期的60美分。而GAAP每股收益为62美分，这没有太出乎意料，通常相差约10美分，主要是由于基于股票的补偿。因此没有太多意外。来看一下收入线，为25,182，与分析师预期的25,290相比，略低了约1亿美元左右。不过，运营利润率明显高于预期，分析师预期为7.5%，实际为10.8%。所以运营利润率相当健康。GAAP利润增长率似乎也很乐观，这或许有助于推动底线。这些数字显示出相当不错的财务结果。

And already I can see free cash flow here, $2.7 billion, which is really exciting. So obviously Tesla delivered more vehicles in the third quarter, significantly more in the third quarter than they did last quarter, which I think is definitely contributing to free cash flow. So let's go through and get back in order here and check out some of the highlights. So profitability, $2.7 billion gap operating income in the third quarter, 2.2 billion gap net income, 2.5 non-gap net income, operating cash flow of $6 billion, $6.3 billion, free cash flow of 2.7 and 2.9 billion increase in cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter. And then for operations, increased AI training compute by over 75% in Q3, love to see that. Cyber truck became the third best selling EV in Q3 in the US, behind Model 3 and Model Y, we already knew that. Over 2 billion miles, driven cumulatively on FSD as of Q3 with more than 50% on V12, which is of course the end-to-end neural network version, at least in cities for the majority.

已经可以看到自由现金流达到27亿美元，这真是令人兴奋。显然，特斯拉在第三季度交付的车辆比上一季度明显更多，我认为这肯定有助于自由现金流的增加。接下来我们来理清一下本季度的一些亮点。盈利方面，第三季度按照通用会计准则（GAAP）的营业收入为27亿美元，GAAP净收入为22亿美元，非GAAP净收入为25亿美元，营业现金流为60亿美元，自由现金流达到27亿美元，现金和现金等价物在季度末增加了29亿美元。运营方面，第三季度AI训练计算能力增加了超过75%，让人赞叹。Cybertruck在美国的第三季度成为销量第三的电动车，仅次于Model 3和Model Y。我们已经知道这一点。截至第三季度，累计自动驾驶（FSD）里程超过20亿英里，其中50%以上是在最新的V12版本上，尤其是在城市中使用的端到端神经网络版本。

All right, so summary, we delivered strong results in Q3 with growth in vehicles deliveries, both sequentially and year-on-year, resulting in record third quarter volumes. We also recognized our second highest quarter of regulatory credit revenues as other OEMs are still behind on meeting emissions requirements. So that's one of the first things that come to mind when you see a margin or operating margin beat is what the regulatory credit contribution was. Sounds like it's pretty significant. So we'll take a look at that in a minute. But our cost of goods sold per vehicle came down to its lowest level ever at about $35,100. That's really exciting because like, cyber truck is still contributing to drive that number up, which means there is still further room to improve and drive that even below 35,000 and continue to make progress on that as cyber truck ramps up.

好的，总结一下，我们在第三季度取得了优异的业绩，车辆交付量无论是环比还是同比都有增长，达到了第三季度的历史新高。我们还获得了第二高的季度监管积分收入，因为其他汽车制造商在满足排放要求方面仍然存在差距。所以，当你看到利润率或营业利润率超出预期时，第一个想到的因素之一就是监管积分的贡献，看来这部分贡献相当显著。我们稍后会仔细看看这一点。此外，我们每辆车的销售成本下降到了历史最低水平，大约是35,100美元。这个结果非常令人兴奋，因为即使有Cybertruck推高了这个数字，仍然还有进一步降低到35,000美元以下的空间，随着Cybertruck的产量增加，我们会在这方面继续取得进展。

They say, in order to continue accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy, we need to make EVs affordable for everyone, including making total costs of ownership per mile competitive with all forms of transportation. Preparations remain underway for our offering of new vehicles, including more affordable vehicles, more affordable models, which will be launching, which will begin launching in the first half of 2025. At our Wii Robot event on October 10th, we detailed our long-term goal of offering autonomous transport with the cost per mile below ride share personal car ownership and even public transit. The energy business achieved another strong quarter with record gross margin. Additionally, the mega factory in Lathrop produced 200 megapacks in a week and power wall deployments reach a record for the second quarter in a row as we continue to ramp power wall three.

他们说，为了继续加速世界向可持续能源的过渡，我们需要让电动车（EV）对所有人都负担得起，包括使得每英里的总拥有成本在所有交通方式中具有竞争力。我们的新车型正在筹备中，包括更实惠的车辆和型号，计划在2025年上半年开始推出。在10月10日的Wii Robot活动中，我们详细介绍了长期目标，即提供每英里成本低于共享乘车、私人汽车拥有甚至公共交通的自主运输。能源业务再创佳绩，实现了创纪录的毛利率。此外，位于拉斯洛普的超级工厂一周内生产了200个Megapack，连续两个季度创下新高的Powerwall部署也达到了新的纪录，因为我们在继续扩大Powerwall三的生产规模。

Despite sustained macroeconomic headwinds and others pulling back on EV investments, we remain focused on expanding our vehicle and energy project lineup, product lineup, reducing costs and making critical investments in AI projects and production capacity. We believe these efforts will allow us to capitalize on the ongoing transition in the transportation and energy sectors. All right, so really exciting to hear about the energy gross margin. Let's take a look at that. Looks like revenue declined. We could have talked about that before. Not unexpected given Tesla's comments on the last earnings call. As we've talked about, it's pretty, I don't know, batchy, probably not the word I'm looking for, but fluctuates a lot from quarter to quarter. So sometimes when we see these massive increases, no surprise to see it come back down in the following quarter, but we'll take a look in a second at what the overall storage deployments were.

尽管宏观经济方面的持续阻力以及其他公司在电动车投资上的退缩，我们仍专注于扩展我们的车辆和能源项目产品阵容，降低成本，并对人工智能项目和生产能力进行关键投资。我们相信，这些努力将使我们能够抓住交通和能源行业的持续变革所带来的机遇。好的，我们来看看令人兴奋的能源毛利率。看起来收入下降了，这一点我们之前也提到过。考虑到特斯拉在上一次财报会议上所说的，这并不令人意外。正如我们讨论过的那样，这可能波动很大，每个季度都会变化。所以，有时出现大幅增长后，下一季度回落也不足为奇，但我们稍后会查看整体存储部署的情况。

So maybe we can find that sheet here first. So one thing to mention, even though production did outpace deliveries, seeing cashflow still be positive $2.7 billion while some of that cashflow is being used for production that exceeded deliveries, extremely positive there. So very happy with that cashflow. I'm curious what these regulatory credits are because it must have been pretty significant. We'll come back and look at that. Let's see if I can type correctly. It's gonna be here somewhere. All right, 739 million. So that's the regulatory credit sales number. That's down from 890 million last quarter. So less significant, which since we're seeing strong financial results here, I'm glad that that is less significant and a minute we'll go through the financials in the summary sheet and that'll work through automotive gross margin X credits. So we can take a look at that.

所以，也许我们可以先在这里找到那张表。有一点要提出的，尽管生产速度超过了交付，但现金流仍然保持正数，达到27亿美元，其中一部分现金流用于超出交付量的生产，这一点非常好。所以对这个现金流感到很满意。我很好奇这些监管碳信用是什么，因为它们肯定是相当重要的。我们会回过头来查看。让我看看能不能正确输入。这一定在这里的某个地方。好了，7.39亿美元。这是本季度的监管碳信用销售额，比上一季度的8.90亿美元有所减少。虽然减少了，但考虑到我们看到了强劲的财务业绩，我很高兴它的重要性降低了。待会儿我们会通过摘要表查看财务数据，也会查看去除碳信用的汽车毛利率，所以我们可以仔细看看。

But as you can see, definitely higher than probably the 450 million or so average that we had been seeing prior to last quarter sort of over the last year prior to that. Definitely a little bit higher, but probably only two, 300 million higher, which will certainly be backed out in terms of future expectations. But it's also good to see it be somewhat consistently higher here over the last two quarters, because hopefully that can kind of persist. If you look at some of these 500, 400s, these are higher than they used to be too. So if going forward Tesla can make $750 million a quarter on regulatory credit revenue, great. That's real money. I can put that towards CapEx. I can put that towards anything else in their business. So it's not that it's not important. It's just also important to understand how the business looks without that regulatory credit revenue, because obviously regulations can change. Competition can change, although they seem to be changing in the incorrect direction. But those things can fluctuate a bit over time.

可以看到，收入确实比前一季度的平均约4.5亿美元更高，虽然只是高出两三亿美元，但这在未来预期中肯定会被考虑进去。过去两个季度收入有所增加，这是个好现象，希望这种趋势可以持续。如果你看看这些5亿、4亿的收入数据，也比以前高了。如果特斯拉未来每季度能通过监管积分获取7.5亿美元，那就太好了，这是真金白银。我可以把这些钱用于资本开支，也可以用于企业的其他方面。所以说，这些收入并非不重要。但同样重要的是要了解没有这些监管积分收入的公司状况，因为显然法规和竞争环境可能会改变，尽管目前的变化方向似乎对特斯拉有利。不过，这些因素随时间可能会有所波动。

All right. So I think we already talked mostly about this. We'll again come back to that in the more detailed look of the financials, but looking at the summary, total revenue up 8% year over year, revenue impacted by growth in vehicle deliveries, growth and energy storage and service in others, services and other, higher FSD revenue recognition year over year for releases related to Cybertruck and certain features such as actually Smart Summon. So that could be something that's also contributing to maybe a higher than expected financial performance here. High regular credit revenue we talked about, offset a bit by reduced vehicle average selling price, excluding foreign exchange impact, which obviously expected. Profitability, operating income increased year over year to $2.7 billion, $10.8% operating margin, impacted by lower cost per vehicle, including lower raw material costs, freight and duties and other one time charges, growth and energy and services, higher FSD revenue recognition, growth and vehicle deliveries, regular storage credit, decrease in operating expenses, including cost reduction efforts. And again, that's year over year. So quarter over quarter, obviously we're probably seeing a drop to zero in that $622 million restructuring charge that we had last quarter, which is gonna improve things sequentially, but this is again, talking year over year.

好的。我想我们已经大致讨论过这个问题。我们会在更详细的财务分析中再次回到这个话题。来看一下总结：总收入同比增长8%，主要受车辆交付增长、能源存储和其他服务增长的影响。此外，由于Cybertruck相关发布和诸如智能召唤等某些功能的FSD收入确认同比增加，这可能也对财务表现好于预期有所贡献。我们之前提到过常规的信用收入较高，但被车辆平均售价的降低（不含外汇影响）部分抵消。盈利方面，营业收入同比增长至27亿美元，营业利润率为10.8%，这受益于每辆车的成本降低，包括原材料成本降低、运费与关税下降以及其他一次性费用减少，能源和服务的增长，FSD收入的增加，车辆交付增长，以及常规存储信用。同时，运营费用减少，包括成本降低的努力。这些是同比变化。所以环比来看，我们可能看到上季度6.22亿美元的重组费用减少到零，这会带来连续的改善，但这里主要谈的是同比变化。

Quarter end cash we talked about, but nice to see that, continue to increase $33.6 billion cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter. All right, so storage deployed, that's actually right in line with analyst consensus, which is, I was already kind of laughing at, so 6.9 gigawatt hours, and that is the actual as well. So well done analysts on that forecast. Inventory, we're able to calculate that prior to quarter, or once we get the delivery numbers, so no surprise on that, but staying pretty stable, 19 days of supply and inventory and continuing to see growth in locations, service fleet and charging availability as well. Still growing 20% year over year on charging.

季度末现金我们已经讨论过，不过很高兴看到现金及现金等价物在季度末继续增长至336亿美元。储能部署实际上与分析师的预期一致，这让我感到有些好笑，实际数据是6.9吉瓦时。分析师对这个预测做得不错。库存方面，在季度前或获得交付数据后我们能计算出来，所以没有惊喜，但供应和库存保持相当稳定，库存周期为19天，同时我们继续在地点、服务车队和充电设施上看到增长。充电设施每年仍在以20%的速度增长。

So I know there's a lot of worry about that with the supercharging team adjustments, but still going strong there on supercharging. All right, so let's take a look at this installed annual vehicle capacity chart, compared to last quarter. Try to match these up. Looks like the formatting is a little bit different, could just be in Safari, but. Okay, so 100,550, yup, yup, Shanghai, greater than 950, yup, Berlin, greater than 375, yup, greater than 250 in Texas and greater than 125, yup, all in production, yup, yup. Pilot production on Tesla Semi, so that matches. It's been nice to see the progress there though, in Nevada, action platform and roadster and development. Yeah, so that's all the same as last quarter, but let's look through the slide here. So vehicle capacity, production and delivery volumes, both returned to year on a year growth in Q3, also produced our 7 millionth vehicle on October 22nd. So, we're still doing Tesla daily, that would be a nice little clue for us to work in a production, but it's so early in the quarter, just three weeks there in the Q4, it doesn't really tell us a whole lot, but definitely an awesome milestone for Tesla. Continue to add to our vehicle lineup by expanding the options for new vehicle trims and paint for Model 3 and Model Y. In the US, refresh Model 3 RAM continued successfully in Q3 with higher total production and lower cost of goods sold a quarter of a quarter, which is great to see, cyber truck production increase sequentially and achieved a positive gross margin for the first time.

我知道很多人对超级充电团队的调整感到担忧，但超级充电仍在坚挺运行。好，我们来看看这个年度车辆产能图表，与上个季度相比。尝试匹配一下。看起来格式有点不同，可能是因为用Safari浏览器，但数据如下：上海10万0550，没错；上海超过9万5000，没错；柏林超过3万7500，没错；德州超过2万5000，没错；超过1万2500，没错，所有这些都在生产中，没错。特斯拉Semi卡车已进入试生产阶段，这也符合现状。在内华达的进展很不错，还有行动平台和Roadster的开发。这些都和上个季度一样，但让我们看看这个幻灯片。车辆产能、生产和交付量在第三季度都实现了同比增长，并在10月22日生产了第700万辆车。我们仍在进行“特斯拉日报”，这是个不错的进展线索，但现在是第四季度的早期阶段，仅仅过了三周，这并不能告诉我们很多，但对特斯拉来说绝对是个很棒的里程碑。我们通过增加新的车型版本和颜色选项来继续扩展我们的车辆阵容。在美国，Model 3的改款版在第三季度继续取得成功，总产量增加，而单件商品的生产成本降低，这非常好。Cybertruck的产量按顺序增加，并首次实现了正毛利。

That's awesome, that's a really, really, really positive thing to see because obviously we've now seen them reduce the price very significantly. If they weren't already hitting positive gross margin, it would just be an even steeper climb to try to get those costs down with this price reduction, which is on the order of $20,000 I think. So, it means there needs to be a lot of costs cutting associated with that. So, for them to have achieved positive gross margin, that's phenomenal. It makes me much more excited about what can be accomplished at these lower pricing price points for the current cyber truck. Preparation of the semi-factory continues and remains on track with builds scheduled to start by the end of 2025. So, that's great. Very excited about the semi. Shanghai factory recently achieved two notable milestones, producing its 3 millionth vehicle in October and exporting its 1 millionth vehicle in September. Cost of goods sold per vehicle at the Shanghai factory improved sequentially to its lowest level ever. That's great. Cost of goods sold per vehicle improved sequentially at Gigabirlin as of Q3, Model Y as the most sold vehicle of any type in 2024 in Sweden, Netherlands, Denmark and Switzerland, and was the best selling vehicle in Europe in the month of September. Additionally in Q3, Model Y became the best selling EV of all time in Norway, which now has over 60,000 units on the road. And then we can see the market share levels here. No surprise, these have kind of started to plateau out a little bit. We're not obviously seeing much growth right now in Model 3 and Model Y. So I'm not terribly surprised that this is not changing too much since those are not completely plateaued, but obviously slowing significantly in their growth till we kind of get to the next stage, which we've talked about many times.

这真是太棒了，这是一个非常非常积极的现象，因为显然他们现在已经大幅降低了价格，似乎在进行成本削减。之前的价格大约降了两万美元，我认为如果他们的毛利率还没有达到正值，那么在价格下降的情况下，降低成本将会更加困难。因此，他们实现了毛利率为正，真是了不起。这让我对在当前网络情况下实现这些更低售价的可能性更加期待。半卡车工厂的建设仍在按计划进行，预计将在2025年底开始生产。这也很令人兴奋。上海工厂最近达到了两个重要里程碑：在10月生产了第300万辆车，并在9月出口了第100万辆车。上海工厂每辆车的商品销售成本连续下降，达到了有史以来的最低水平。这非常好。柏林超级工厂的每辆车的商品销售成本在第三季度也有所改善。在2024年，Model Y是瑞典、荷兰、丹麦和瑞士所有类型车辆中销量最大的一款，并且在9月份是全欧洲最畅销的车型。此外，在第三季度，Model Y成为挪威有史以来销量最高的电动车，目前在挪威路上行驶的车辆数量已超过6万辆。我们可以看到市场份额的变化，这并不意外，市场份额已经开始趋于平稳。显然我们现在没有看到Model 3和Model Y的显著增长，因此我并不意外这方面没有太大变化，尽管它们的增长明显放缓，直到我们到达我们多次讨论的下一个阶段。

All right, core technology, this slide ever more important each quarter, but in Q3, we released the 12.5 series of FSD with improved safety comfort, thanks to increased data and training compute, a five times increase in parameter count and other architectural choices that we plan to continue scaling in Q4, released actually Smart Summon and FSD supervised to Cybertruck customers, including N10 neural nets for highway driving for the first time. We deployed in our training ahead of schedule on a 29,000 H100 cluster at Giga Texas, where we expect to have 50,000 H100 capacity by the end of October. So obviously that's just a week from now, roughly. So nice to see continued scaling there and hopefully that allows progress with FSD to continue to increase in terms of the rapidity of it, which we'll definitely keep an eye on.

好的，核心技术。这张幻灯片在每个季度都显得越来越重要。在第三季度，我们发布了FSD（全自动驾驶）的12.5系列，在安全性和舒适性方面有了提升，得益于增加的数据和计算能力，参数数量增加了五倍，以及其他的架构选择。我们计划在第四季度继续扩大这些措施。实际上我们已经为Cybertruck（赛博卡车）客户推出了智能召唤和FSD监督功能，其中首次包括用于高速公路驾驶的N10神经网络。我们在Giga Texas的一个29,000个H100集群上提前部署了训练，并期望在10月底前达到50,000个H100的容量。所以显然距离现在只剩一个星期左右了。很高兴看到在这方面的持续扩展，并希望这能使FSD的进展速度不断加快，我们一定会密切关注这方面的动态。

All right, vehicle and other software are summer release, included YouTube and Amazon music as a native apps. Parents can now enable parental controls via PIN to apply maximum speed limit, reduce acceleration to chill, force enable safety settings, force enable safety settings and enable curfew notifications. Other new features include hands-free frunk, revamped climate controls for Model 3 and Model Y, weather forecast, air quality and improvements to in vehicle navigation, and then battery power train and manufacturing in October, we unveiled our CyberCab and RoboVan vehicles, both designed from the ground up for autonomy without a steering wheel or pedals. CyberCab will be built on our next generation platform, which includes a new power train with an estimated 5.5 miles per kilowatt hour. This will be our most efficient power train yet.

好的，车辆和其他软件将在夏季发布，其中包括YouTube和Amazon Music作为原生应用程序。家长现在可以通过PIN码启用家长控制功能，以设置最高速度限制、降低加速到舒适模式、强制启用安全设置，并开启宵禁通知。其他新功能包括免提前舱盖、重新设计的Model 3和Model Y的气候控制、天气预报、空气质量以及车载导航的改进。至于电池、电力传动系统和制造，我们在10月推出了CyberCab和RoboVan两款车辆，它们均从零开始设计，具有完全自主驾驶功能，没有方向盘或踏板。CyberCab将基于我们的下一代平台构建，其中包括一个新的电力传动系统，其效率估计为每千瓦时5.5英里。这将是我们迄今为止效率最高的动力系统。

In Q3, we produced our 100 millionth 4680 cell and continued to progress our dry cathode manufacturing lines. I believe I'd probably have to go back and check, but I believe that 100 millionth 4680 cell was already announced by Tesla. So I don't think that's anything new. The 5.5 miles per kilowatt hour, that had been, I think, told to top gear and I think they had published it. So we did know that if you'd been following along closely, but I think first, official confirmation that we've heard from Tesla, I also wouldn't be too surprised if they were able to beat that in many use cases. Obviously that's a pretty significant improvement though over Model 3, Model Y, et cetera, which would be maybe not four, probably a little bit higher than four miles per kilowatt hour. It depends how you're dusting it to, obviously, whether it's EPI or Real World or whatever else. Anyway, looking at some of the charts here, so FSD version 12 miles and FSD miles, you can see, I think they now said that, key me relatively, half those miles are on FSD 12, which is a great more data to train future versions. And then we get a nice look at the expanding capacity. So this is something we spend a lot of time talking about when Tesla Daily was doing daily content, but around this time we were talking about how Tesla's compute capacity was gonna increase minifold, and we're now seeing that play out, and we're really in the early stages of seeing this massive increase, you know, whatever we're, I don't know, 3,000 here to 30,000 here. So you've got a 10 times improvement, just sort of, you know, year over year when we're in Q1, Q2 timeframe, and then we're seeing another tripling of that just in the last six months. So it takes Tesla time to bring that online. It takes time to be able to fully utilize that capacity and then be able to ship that into the vehicles and then use the new software to collect even more new data and then run it back through. So it takes time for us to start to like really see the effects of this compute capacity. The real world software and the improvements in it are going to lag behind whatever this curve looks like. So this curve is really steep. What you kind of hope to see then is that, all right, shift it out a year and you see sort of a similar curve in the software. Maybe not a year, but like, maybe you shift it three months, six months, whatever. And you start to see those really significant improvements that you see with this. And Ashuk has mentioned this before, just in terms of like the multiple different parts of the architecture that they feel scaling laws apply to. And this is just one of those areas. I think you mentioned four or five. That might have been a Q1 or Q2 earnings call, but hopefully there's multiple different things that are also scaling in a similar way that can really help with FSD here over the next few months. So it's a very exciting time seeing this come online. And hopefully we're in the early stages of seeing the effects of that in the actual product, which has definitely gotten a lot better in 2024.

在第三季度，我们生产了第1亿个4680电池，并继续改进我们的干电极制造线。我可能需要再去确认一下，但我相信这个第1亿个4680电池已经被特斯拉宣布过了，所以这不算什么新消息。5.5英里每千瓦时这个数据，我想已经告诉了《Top Gear》，他们可能已经发表过了。如果你一直密切关注的话，应该知道，但我认为这是我们从特斯拉听到的首次官方确认。我也不会太惊讶，如果他们能在很多使用情况下超过这个数字。显然，相对于Model 3、Model Y等车型（它们可能不到4或略高于4英里每千瓦时），这是一个相当显著的提升。当然，这取决于你是如何计算的，无论是EPI还是实际世界测试等等。不管怎样，看一下这些图表，FSD（完全自动驾驶系统）第12版的行驶里程和总行驶里程，据我所知，他们现在说，差不多有一半的里程都是在FSD 12上，这为训练未来版本提供了更多的数据。然后，我们可以看到产能的扩展。这是我们花了很多时间讨论的问题，当《特斯拉日报》做每日内容时，我们曾谈到特斯拉的计算能力将提高很多倍，现在我们看到这正在实现，而我们实际上正处于这个大幅增长的早期阶段，比如从这里的3000到这里的30000。因此，基本上是十倍的提高，只不过是年复一年，当我们在Q1、Q2的时间范围内，然后在过去六个月中再次增加三倍。特斯拉需要时间来将这些上线，充分利用这些产能，然后将其注入车辆，同时使用新软件收集更多新数据，然后进行回归分析。因此，我们需要时间来真正看到这种计算能力的效果。现实世界的软件以及它的改进速度会落后于这样的增长曲线。所以这条曲线真的很陡峭。你会希望看到的是，将它向后推一年，然后你会看到软件曲线有类似的增长。可能不是一年，也许是三个月，六个月，然后你会开始看到这些显著的改进。Ashuk之前提到过这一点，涉及到架构中的多个不同部分，他们认为适用于扩展定律的地方。这只是其中一个方面。我想他提到过四五个。这可能是在Q1或者Q2的财报电话中，但希望还有多个不同的领域也在以类似方式扩展，这在接下来的几个月中能真正帮助FSD。因此，这是一个非常激动人心的时刻，看到这些上线，并希望我们正处于在实际产品中看到这些效果的早期阶段，产品在2024年肯定会变得更好。

All right, other highlights, energy and services and other businesses are becoming increasingly profitable parts of Tesla. We'll take a look at the energy growth margin a little bit here in a minute, when we go through the financials, because they did say that was all time high. So as energy storage products continue to ramp up and our vehicle fleet continues to grow, we are expecting continued profit growth from these businesses over time. So the energy business achieved a record gross margin of 30 and a half percent in Q3. There we go, we don't need a cow getting anymore. We still will, but nice to see it there. So that's awesome. I mean, that's far above now where automotive has been. Even probably the best automotive has ever been. I'm not even sure it ever really crossed that 30% level. So incredibly impressive.

好的，其他亮点是能源和服务以及其他业务正成为特斯拉越来越盈利的部分。我们一会儿在查看财务报表时，将看看能源增长的利润率，因为他们表示达到了历史新高。随着能源存储产品的不断扩大和我们的汽车车队的持续增长，我们预计这些业务的利润会持续增长。因此，能源业务在第三季度实现了创纪录的30.5%的毛利率。看到这样的成绩，我们已经不需要再依赖传统汽车了。即使我们还会继续，但这确实令人振奋。这比汽车业务现有的水平要高得多。即使是汽车业务历史上最好的表现，也可能从未达到过30%的水平。所以，这真的令人印象深刻。

And what's even better about the energy business is that it gets to leverage all of the fixed costs, not all of them, but a lot of the fixed costs that Tesla has from the automotive business. So if this were a standalone business, this would already be a very healthy gross margin, but since it gets to leverage a lot of Tesla's other costs, it means even more of this gross margin actually flows through to the net income, operating margin, things like that. So extremely impressive there. Hopefully we can continue to see this hold up, which it looks like Tesla is saying here, continued profit growth from these businesses over time. I guess they're not saying margin rate, but increased profit could mean more dollars, lower rate. So a little bit less clear on that, but if this holds up or continues to improve, that's extremely exciting. So anyway, that increased about 600 basis points, quarter over quarter, yeah, sequentially, despite lower megapack volumes, which as we talked about that can fluctuate a lot. So hopefully next quarter, we could even see a higher number with even more gross margin, which would be awesome.

能源业务的更大优势在于，它可以利用特斯拉汽车业务中的大量固定成本（并非全部，但相当多）。如果这是一个独立的业务，它的毛利润已经非常可观，但由于能够利用特斯拉的其他成本，更多的毛利润实际上会转化为净收入和营业利润等。因此，这非常令人印象深刻。希望我们可以继续看到这种趋势，特斯拉似乎也表示，随着时间的推移，这些业务将继续实现利润增长。我猜他们没明确提到利润率，但利润增加可以意味着更多实际收入，即使利润率下降。这方面稍微有点不太明确，但如果这种趋势得以保持或有所改善，那会非常令人振奋。无论如何，毛利润率这个季度环比增加了大约600个基点，尽管巨型电池包的销量减少，这种波动是常见的。所以希望下个季度，我们能看到更高的数字和更高的毛利，那将会非常棒。

Powerwall achieved record deployments and Q3 for the second quarter in a row. That's great. Ramp of Powerwall 3 and laythrough up mega factory continued successfully with laythrough up demonstrating 200 megapack production, which is a 40 gigawatt hour annual run rate, which is of course like the name plate capacity for laythrough up. I think there's probably room to actually get even more out of that if they're already hitting this 200 number. I think there's probably some room to increase that further. As of Q3, over 100,000 Powerwalls were enrolled in virtual power plants programs, delivering additional financial value to owners while providing much needed support on the grid during periods of stress. The Shanghai mega factory remains on track to begin shipping megapacks in Q1 2025. So only a couple of quarters away there, which should really, really help continue the growth that we're seeing in energy, really strong growth over the last couple of years. So Shanghai mega factory keep that going. Maybe that's gonna dip the energy margins for a little bit as that ramps up, just like we would see an automotive when a new product ramps up. But once that does, and I'm sure it will go pretty quickly because it's Shanghai, should be a nice contributor.

Powerwall连续两个季度实现了创纪录的部署，这真是太好了。Powerwall 3的扩产和mega工厂的上线进展顺利，上线的表现是达到了200个megapack的生产量，这相当于年产40吉瓦时的速度，这当然和上线的额定产能相符。我认为可能还有空间进一步提高产量，如果他们已经达到了200这个数值的话。到第三季度，已有超过10万个Powerwall参与了虚拟电厂项目，为业主带来了额外的财务价值，同时在电网压力大的时期提供了急需的支持。上海的mega工厂保持进度，将在2025年第一季度开始发运megapack，所以只剩下几个季度就能开始发货了，这应该会大大推动我们在能源业务上的增长，过去几年在这方面的增长非常强劲。因此，上海的mega工厂要保持这种势头。可能在扩产期间，能源的利润率会稍微下降，就像我们在汽车业务中看到新产品扩产时的情况一样。但一旦扩产完成，我相信由于地处上海的缘故，进展会非常快，这将成为一个很好的贡献者。

All right, services and other. The services and other business achieved a record gross profit in Q3 growing over 90% year on year sequential growth and gross profit was driven mostly by higher gross profit generation from supercharging, service center margin improvement, and higher gross profit generation from parts, sales, and merchandise. Supercharging network continued to expand in Q3 with over 2,800 new stalls in the quarter, 22% growth of the network year over year. So that's awesome. We'll look at the service margin a little bit more closely too in the financials.

好的，服务和其他业务方面。服务和其他业务在第三季度实现了创纪录的毛利润，同比增长了90%以上。毛利润的增长主要得益于超级充电收入的增加、服务中心利润率的提升，以及零部件、销售和商品的更高毛利。在第三季度，超级充电网络继续扩展，新增加了2800多个充电桩，网络同比增长了22%。这非常棒。我们也将在财务报告中更详细地查看服务利润率。

All right. We went through the product outlook here. We'll just take a look at the other ones. I'm guessing these are largely the same. But for volume, our company is currently between two major growth waves. The first one began with the global expansion of the Model 3 slash Y platform. And we believe the next one will be initiated by advances in autonomy and introduction of new products, including those built on our next generation vehicle platform. Despite ongoing macroeconomic conditions, we expect to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024. Energy storage deployment, as expected, are more than double year over year in 2024.

好的。我们已经看过产品前景了。现在我们来看看其他方面。我猜应该大体相同。但就销量而言，我们公司目前处于两个主要增长浪潮之间。第一个增长浪潮是以 Model 3/Y 平台的全球扩张为起点。我们相信，下一个增长浪潮将由自动驾驶技术的进步和新产品的推出所推动，包括基于我们下一代车辆平台的新产品。尽管宏观经济形势依旧存在挑战，我们预计在2024年车辆交付量会略有增长。预计在2024年，能源储存部署将同比增长一倍以上。

All right. So that's probably something that's helping the stock here a little bit too. Let me make sure I'm on the right report still. Didn't get mixed up, but yep, this is still Q3. So this is basically giving Q4 guidance. We would have to work through the math on what total year deliveries were last year, subtract out year to date deliveries this year. That basically will give us the guidance for Q4. I think there was some skepticism that Tesla would be able to achieve that, but it seems like they're pulling some pretty significant demand levers here already pretty early in the quarter. If those get pulled even harder, as things go throughout the quarter, certainly seems like something that's possible as Tesla's guiding here.

好的。这可能是帮助股票小幅上涨的一个因素。让我确保我仍在查看正确的报告，并没有搞混，是的，这仍然是第三季度报告。这基本上是在提供第四季度的指导。我们需要通过计算去年的全年交付量，然后减去今年的年初至今交付量，这样就能得出第四季度的指导。我认为有些人对特斯拉是否能实现这一目标持怀疑态度，但看起来特斯拉在这个季度还比较早的时候就已经开始采取一些相当重要的需求措施了。如果这些措施在整个季度内被更强力地实施，那就很可能达到特斯拉所指引的目标。

Just taking a quick look. All right, stock up 9% now. That's awesome. It's been a while since we've had an earnings report like this. I think there was a lot of, I think I said even before this, I didn't have high expectations for this. So maybe it's just a factor of people's expectations being so low going into something. Sometimes you get the reverse of what you expect. But nice to have one. We'll see, obviously we've got the earnings called to go through as well. Sometimes those can change the trajectory a bit, but we'll see. Nice to see it up here after hours.

只是快速看了一下。好的，股票现在上涨了9%。太棒了。我们已经有一段时间没有发布过这样的财报了。我之前就说过，我对这次的期望并不高。所以这可能是因为大家的期望值很低，结果反而出乎意料。但有这样的结果很不错。我们还有电话会议要进行，有时候这些会议会稍微改变走势，但且拭目以待。很高兴看到它在盘后上涨。

All right, cash, significant liquidity, strong balance sheet. Same stuff we always see. Profit continued to work to execute on innovations to reduce the cost of manufacturing and operations over time. Expect our hardware related profits to be accompanied by an acceleration of AI software and fleet-based profits. Same stuff there that we've seen in previous reports. So our apps up most of the text.

好的，现金充裕，流动性强，资产负债表稳健。这些都是我们经常看到的内容。利润持续努力通过创新来逐步降低制造和运营成本。我们预计硬件相关的利润将伴随着人工智能软件和基于车队的利润的加速增长出现。这些在之前的报告中也出现过，所以我们的应用程序涵盖了大部分内容。

Let's take a look at some of the charts here. So not a chart that we see from Tesla frequently here, but looks like EV market share. Significant growth, but you can see outside of China, things have definitely tapered off. I think a lot of this coinciding with higher industries. And then obviously a lot of this is just Tesla itself having been responsible for a very large portion of this growth. And now that Model 3 and Model Y are currently sort of at a point where they're more closer to Platzel, less fast growth, obviously that's gonna impact the stuff too. China still growing, but obviously took a little bit of a recess from growth there in 2024 or earlier.

让我们来看一些图表。我们不常看到这样的特斯拉图表，但这似乎是电动车的市场份额。增长显著，但你可以看到在中国以外的地区，增速明显放缓。我认为这与行业的整体增速放缓有关，特斯拉本身在这段增长中占了很大份额。现在，Model 3和Model Y的增长已经趋于平稳，增速不像以前那么快，这显然也会影响市场情况。中国市场仍在增长，但在2024年或更早的时候，增速有所回落。

All right, so we've seen this stuff in the impact reports. This is just emissions from gas cars and robot taxi. Oh, so I guess that's new with the robot taxi. Normally we would see, although I think even in the impact reports before Tesla is kind of modeled that out of like what a ride share Model 3 would look like hypothetically. But you can just see, I don't know what the scale of this is, but maybe 15% something in that ballpark. Lifetime emissions versus gas vehicles. So obviously an electric vehicle moves that needle pretty far. And then if you can get even more use out on electric vehicle, it's gonna, you know, that sort of just compounds in terms of the emission savings.

好的，所以我们在影响报告中看到了这些内容。这只是来自汽油汽车和机器人出租车的排放。哦，我想机器人出租车是新的东西。通常我们会看到，虽然我认为即使在之前的影响报告中，特斯拉就已经对共享出行的Model 3进行了模型构想，就像假设性地预测一样。但你可以看到，我不知道具体的比例是多少，但可能大约是15%。终身排放与汽油车相比。所以显然，电动车能在这方面带来很大的改变。而且如果你能对电动车进行更多的使用，那么从排放节约的角度来看，这种效果会进一步放大。

So robot taxi, we've looked at these. Of course, nothing new there. There's the Robo van. I love it. Wireless charging, we can maybe talk a little bit more about that in the pros and cons. But as Tesla has said, in case anyone missed it, Tesla said that efficiency is well above 90% was sort of the direct words that they had said in terms of wireless charging. So hopefully something that can be implemented, you know, very efficiently and cost effectively, et cetera. There's optimist. This is the next generation hand. If you guys haven't seen this, this is the, I believe 20 degrees of freedom. That's something in that ballpark. This will be, I think version three of the optimist hand. So they had this sort of like sticking out of, I think a coffin just during the 10, 10 event. But there's a video of it. If you haven't seen that, go check it out. Definitely exciting to see, you know, a little preview of what's gonna be on the next generation optimist.

所以关于机器人出租车，我们之前已经看过一些。当然，这不是什么新鲜事。在这方面，还有Robo货车，我非常喜欢。无线充电，我们可以稍后谈谈它的优缺点。不过，正如特斯拉所说，如果有人错过了这一点，特斯拉提到无线充电的效率远超过90%，这大概是他们当时说的原话。希望这个技术能被高效且具有成本效益地实现。另外还有Optimus，这是下一代的机械手。如果你们还没见过，据我所知，这款手具有大约20个自由度。这应该是Optimus手的第三版本。在10月10日的活动上，他们展示的时候貌似是从一个类似棺材的东西里伸出来的。如果你还没有看过相关视频，建议去看看。看到下一代Optimus的一些预览确实令人兴奋。

All right, seven millionth vehicle right there. Looks like that was done at Fremont. So congratulations. I'll test employees for that. Powerwall three. So here's Nevada with the semi. Awesome to see that progress. And then some of the quarterly charts and things like that.

好的，第七百万辆汽车就在那儿了。看来这是在弗里蒙特工厂完成的。恭喜所有参与的员工。接下来是第三代Powerwall。这是半挂卡车在内华达州的进展。看到这些进展真是太棒了。然后还有一些季度图表和相关内容。

Then we get into the detailed financials. So we'll come back to those for the spreadsheet portion. So we can hop into that. I do see some super chats here. I'll just take a quick look in case. Some of those are questions. I'll come back to them later, but in case it's relevant to what we kind of just walked through here might be better timing. But I do appreciate those. Let's see. I'm gonna miss these, but some of these, but I'll try to come back to any of that I do miss.

然后我们进入详细的财务部分。我们会在处理电子表格时回过头来讨论这个部分。现在我们可以开始了。我看到这里有一些超级留言（super chats），我会快速浏览一下，以防其中有问题。若其中的问题与我们刚刚讨论的内容相关，现在可能是更好的时机来处理。不过我非常感谢这些留言。让我看看...我可能会错过其中的一些，但我会尽量回过头来处理我错过的部分。

So Pete asking, do you think Elon is right? The Tesla will hit 20 million vehicles per year before 2030? No, I don't think that will happen. Even a few years ago, and that was really the goal. It was kind of a long shot. I think my model had something like, I don't know, 15 million or something like that when I kind of worked through it. But that was always a long shot, aspirational goal.

皮特问：“你觉得埃隆（马斯克）说得对吗？特斯拉会在2030年前每年生产2000万辆汽车吗？”我觉得不会实现。即使在几年前，这个目标听起来也有点像异想天开。我做过模型分析，结果大概是1500万辆左右。这个目标一直以来都是一个有志向但很难实现的目标。

Tesla sets aggressive goals, tries to get there. And if you come out and set a goal of 20 and you hit 15, fantastic. But we've heard them back off that language or stop reiterating that type of language for probably the last year or so. I don't really think that's the target. I think they're trying to solve autonomy. And from there, they're gonna figure out the rest. That's the biggest thing that they're focused on. Not so much the specific volume.

特斯拉设定了激进的目标，并努力实现这些目标。如果他们设定了20的目标却达到了15，那也很不错。但是，我们发现大约在过去一年左右，他们不再频繁使用这样的表达。我认为那并不是他们的真正目标。他们正在努力解决自动驾驶的问题，从此基础上再解决其他问题。这才是他们的重点，而不是具体的产量。

Okay. All right, I think we're, again, there's more super chats here and I appreciate those, but I do wanna hop in on financials and keep this going. Once the earnings call does start, I'll do the same thing. It's gonna be on the channel and we'll do you, listen together, I'll take notes and we can talk about that afterward as well. That'll be linked in the description for this video.

好的。我知道这里又有很多超级留言，我非常感谢大家的支持，但我希望能继续关注财务方面的内容。一旦财报电话会议开始，我会做同样的事情。会议将会在频道上直播，我们可以一起收听，我会做笔记，之后我们也可以对此进行讨论。相关链接会放在这个视频的说明中。

But let's hop over to financials. The always the most fun and entertaining part of this review. Okay. I'm gonna take a look here. We've got 9500 people watching now. We'll see how many are watching once I'm done with this part. But we've got energy storage here. So I know it's not gonna be on your screen, but I'm just gonna be flipping back and forth and we'll get sort of the summary put together here.

但是让我们来看看财务部分。这一部分总是最有趣和吸引人的。好的，我现在要查看一下。目前有9500人在观看。看完这一部分后，我们看看还会有多少人在看。不过，我们这里有能源储存的相关内容。我知道它不会出现在你的屏幕上，但我会来回切换，并整理出一个总结。

We can take a look at margins, auto gross margin X credits. See how this is all flowing together pretty quickly here. So this energy storage revenue was, oh, so well, we know that one already. Great, nice forecast analysts. Auto sales, excluding regulatory credits. So just give me one second to pull those. So it's 18, 831. Ah, no, cause that doesn't include regulatory credits.

我们可以查看一下利润率，汽车的毛利率不包括信用积分。看看这一切是如何迅速结合在一起的。那么这个能源存储的收入是，哦，这个我们已经知道了。分析员的预测很不错。汽车销售收入不包括监管积分。所以请稍等一下，我来查一下数据。是18,831。不对，因为这不包括监管积分。

All right, so we know that's 739. So total would be 20, 016. So up a bit quarter over quarter, up a bit over last year. A little bit below analyst expectations, even with probably higher regulatory credits, than analysts expected. That's not something that's included in the consensus recap, unfortunately. Energy generation and storage, that's the 2376 right there. And then services and other is 2790.

好的，我们知道那是739。所以总数是20,016。与上一季度相比有所增加，也比去年增长了一些。不过，即使有可能高于分析师预期的监管信用，这个数字仍然稍低于分析师的预期。遗憾的是，这并不包含在分析师共识回顾中。能源生产和储存方面是2376。而服务和其他方面是2790。

So giving us our total revenue, just over 25.1, close to $25.2 billion. Again, about $100 million short of analyst consensus looks like mostly because of, or, you know, but yeah, I guess mostly because of, automotive sales coming in a little bit lower. So average selling price is probably a little bit lower than what analysts were expecting, but it seems like cost of goods sold probably were two.

我们的总收入稍超过251亿美元，接近252亿美元。不过，这大约比分析师的预期低了1亿美元，主要原因可能是汽车销售额稍低于预期。因此，平均售价可能低于分析师的预期，但看来销售成本可能也同样降低了。

So you win, and then you lose, and then it nuts out, hopefully towards a positive, with these automotive profit numbers. So we'll get those now, looking at cost of goods sold. Total automotive cost of revenue was 1590. So we'll just take that out of the revenue here. Energy, we should get a 30 and a half gross margin here. So 1651 was the cost. Nope.

"所以你会赢，然后会输，然后希望最终结果是正面的，这是关于汽车利润的数字。现在我们来看一下销售成本。汽车总收入成本是1590。所以我们从这里的收入中减去这部分。能源方面，我们的毛利率应该是30.5%。因此，成本是1651。不对。"

Then services and other is 2544. So that gets us our 19.8, which checks out with what Tesla had said in the report. And then we get the 30 and a half on energy gross margin. So you can already see the biggest thing there. This is one of the most important numbers of every report and extremely exciting to see the 17.1% automotive gross margin X credits. So like I said, average selling price was probably a little bit lower, but it looks like Tesla was able to move costs down.

然后，服务和其他收入是2544。这使我们得到19.8，这与特斯拉在报告中所说的相符。接着，我们得到能源业务的毛利率为30.5%。所以你可以看到最大的亮点。这是每次报告中最重要的数字之一，非常令人振奋的是汽车业务的毛利率（不包括积分）达到了17.1%。正如我所提到的，平均售价可能稍微低了一点，但看起来特斯拉设法降低了成本。

I think they said below 35,100, if I recall correctly. So you can see it's gonna be a massive, massive drop in costs of goods sold a quarter of a quarter. So in hindsight, it looks like Cybertruck was having a pretty big impact, getting that even to a slightly positive territory, probably massively helping with automotive gross margins. And again, in hindsight, probably was suppressing it more than what people had expected. Just my quick guess looking at these initially, but really, really exciting to see that.

如果我没记错的话，我认为他们说的是低于35,100。所以你可以看到，商品销售成本将大幅下降，从一个季度到下一个季度。这么看来，Cybertruck显然产生了相当大的影响，使其进入稍微正面的领域，这可能对汽车毛利率有很大的帮助。而且，回过头来看，这可能比人们预期的压制效果更大。这只是我快速浏览后的小猜测，但确实让人非常兴奋。

I mean, that's a really big jump quarter over quarter, especially with all the financing activities and things like that that we saw Tesla do. What that means is Tesla has room to continue to do those types of things or even do more of them and still be in a healthy gross margin territory. Cause that's, for me, that's the biggest thing is that Tesla can fund all of the development that they're doing to get us to sort of that next stage of growth. That's what I've been talking about for probably the last year at least. Is that really is what this period is for, is funding all the CapEx that Tesla's doing for AI progress, funding development of the unboxed process, which will eventually happen with RoboTaxi.

我的意思是，从一个季度到下一个季度的增长非常大，特别是考虑到我们看到特斯拉进行的所有融资活动等。这意味着特斯拉有空间继续进行这些活动，甚至可以做得更多，同时仍保持健康的毛利率。对我来说，最重要的是特斯拉能够为他们正在进行的所有研发提供资金，以推动我们进入下一个增长阶段。这也是我过去至少一年一直在谈论的事情。实际上，这段时间就是为了资助特斯拉在人工智能进展方面的资本支出，为之后无人驾驶出租车的发展和未开箱过程的研究提供资金。

Funding Optimus development, all the sort of stuff that's getting us to, just like Model 3 would have been part of the development process during the Model S and Model S bringing in funds for that X as well. We're in that same type of a period now where we're using our current products to generate this cash flow to support that next leg. And that next leg is very clear. Tesla's been very clear about what they view that as. So people should stay focused on that. And that's what this time period is all about. So 17.1%, fantastic.

资助Optimus项目的开发，就像Model S和Model X时期，Model 3曾是开发过程的一部分，我们也用这些车型带来的资金支持其他项目。我们现在正处于类似的阶段，利用现有产品创造现金流，以支持下一步的发展。而这一下一步是非常明确的，特斯拉对此有清晰的规划。所以大家应该专注于这个目标，这就是这一时期所关注的重点。17.1%，很棒。

Hopefully there's not any like one time things hiding in there. Now that I'm saying that there is potentially something in there with the FSD revenue recognition. So we'll put a little asterisk on that for the moment, but hopefully that's not that massively significant in this number. Now we probably won't know what that recognition number is until we get the 10Q. That should be out by next week. I don't, maybe even in the next couple of days. So keep a close eye on that.

希望这里面没有什么一次性的项目隐藏着。现在我提到，全自动驾驶系统（FSD）收入确认中可能有某些东西。所以暂时我们会在这个问题上打个星号，但希望这不会对这个数字有巨大影响。我们可能要等到10Q报告发布后才能知道具体的确认数值。报告应该下周会出，也许甚至就在接下来的几天里。所以请密切关注这件事。

We probably won't have like an episode of review that, but maybe I can post on X or something about it if I have a chance. So that's probably the one big thing that we need to keep an eye on is what that FSD revenue recognition amounted to this quarter. And then maybe take that out when we're looking at this automotive gross margin X credits. Because again, there's gonna be more FSD revenue to recognize, but it's not something that happens consistently every quarter. So 19.8% gross margin, obviously way, way above what analysts expected, even though revenue was a little bit lower, which means costs are coming in way, way lower than what was expected.

我们可能不会专门做一期节目来审查这个问题，但如果有机会，我可以在X平台上发帖讨论。所以我们需要密切关注的一个重要方面是这个季度FSD（全自动驾驶）收入确认的具体金额。可能需要从汽车的毛利率中排除掉这部分，因为FSD收入的确认并不是每个季度都会稳定进行的。所以19.8%的毛利率明显高于分析师的预期，尽管收入略低一些，这意味着成本比预期要低得多。

All right, so getting into sort of like the operating margin type of stuff. Let's look at R&D here quickly. We'll flip back to the report. So that was 10.39. So pretty consistent. We've been right around this billion dollar level, even a little bit lower. So that's gonna help operating margins. Selling general and administrative costs looks like those declined a little bit too. About $100 million quarter over quarter. And you can see R&D down 11% year over year, SG&A down 5% year over year. So good cost control, not surprising. Tesla's always great at cost control. And then we shouldn't, we do even have a little bit of restructuring costs here still flowing into the third quarter.

好的，我们来聊一下运营利润方面的内容。先快速看看研发（R&D）费用，我们翻回到报告。研发支出是10.39亿，这个数字相当稳定，甚至有些下降。这将对运营利润有帮助。销售、一般及行政费用（SG&A）似乎也略有下降，每季度下降了大约1亿美元。你可以看到，研发费用同比下降了11%，SG&A同比下降了5%。所以，成本控制做得很好，这不令人意外，特斯拉一向擅长控制成本。此外，我们在第三季度还有一些重组成本在继续渗透。

Obviously, last quarter, there were a lot of layoffs and things like that. So $622 million of restructuring costs last quarter, 55 million this quarter. So if you take that 55 million out, that's gonna improve 20 basis points or so in the operating margin, which is a clearer picture. Obviously, it doesn't mean much in terms of regulatory credits and things like that. But it's not nothing either. Maybe that's a fourth of the impact of higher than normal regulatory credits. So that's something that I wouldn't anticipate being around in Q4. So it actually helps even a little bit more. And then EBITDA, so 10.8 operating margin. Again, massive progress from where Tesla's been, which is great. And then the 7.5% expectation obviously was way lower than the actual.

显然，上个季度发生了很多裁员和类似的事情。因此，上个季度的重组成本为6.22亿美元，而本季度为5500万美元。因此，如果剔除这5500万美元，营业利润率将改善大约20个基点，这样可以看得更清楚。显然，这对于监管信贷之类的东西意义不大，但也并非毫无意义。也许这只是高于正常水平的监管信贷影响的四分之一。所以我认为这在第四季度不会出现。因此，这实际上稍微有助于改善。而且，EBITDA（息税折旧及摊销前利润）的营业利润率是10.8%。这相较于特斯拉先前的表现，是一个巨大的进步，令人欣喜。7.5%的预期显然远低于实际水平。

All right, EBITDA, let's see. Just find this in the report quick. All right, 4665, very strong. About a billion dollars more in EBITDA than last quarter. Non-Gap net income was 2505. Stock based compensation. All right, so that's a little tricky to find it in here. There we go. That was 457, it looks like. So gap net income should be 2048. Which seems a little bit different. Hmm. Maybe I got the wrong stock point. All right, so that's a little bit more of a good idea. So that's a little bit more of a good idea. All right, so that's a little bit more of a good idea. Different, hmm. Maybe I got the wrong stock based compensation number here. One moment. Hmm. Interesting.

好的，EBITDA，我们来看一下。先在报告中找出来。好了，4665，非常强劲。比上一季度的EBITDA多了大约十亿美元。非GAAP净收入是2505。股票补偿，好吧，这个有点难找。找到了，是457，看起来是这样。所以GAAP净收入应该是2048。这好像有点不同。嗯，也许我搞错了股票补偿的数额。稍等一下。嗯，有意思。

So unless I'm just completely not smart anymore, if I ever was, but I'll have to figure out what's going on there. We don't use those for much, but looks like this number needs to be adjusted a little bit. Something else other than stock based compensation, I think is affecting that. Unless I have the non-Gap number wrong. Hmm. Interesting. All right, well, I'll take a look at the chat. I'm sure someone here is better at accounting than me and understands why that is happening. But we'll continue forward and get into the bottom line here and then we can calculate price to earnings and things like that. So non-Gap earnings per share is 0.72. So obviously with higher than expected operating margins and gross margins, that's helping flow through to the bottom line here to 72 cents earnings per share on a gap basis. That's then 62 cents per share. So the only difference there should be stock based compensation.

所以，除非我真的变得不聪明了，如果我曾经聪明过的话，但我得弄清楚这里发生了什么。我们平常对此没有太大用处，但看起来这个数字需要稍微调整一下。我认为除了基于股票的补偿，还有其他因素在影响这个结果。除非我的非GAAP（美国公认会计原则）数据搞错了。嗯，有意思。好的，我会看看聊天记录，我相信这里有人比我更懂会计，能够理解为什么会这样。但我们会继续往下，并搞清楚最终的结果，这样我们就可以计算市盈率和其它东西。所以，非GAAP每股收益是0.72美元。显然，较高的运营利润率和毛利率有助于将利润推高到每股0.72美元的水平，这是基于GAAP（美国公认会计原则）的每股收益，而那个是每股0.62美元。所以唯一的区别应该是基于股票的补偿。

Yeah, I don't know. Hmm. Just seeing if anyone knows. Anyone knows what's going on there. All right, I'll move forward. Free cash flow was 2742. So again, this is a phenomenal number, even though Tesla in the quarter produced more vehicles than they sold. Extremely strong free cash flow. That's probably the, I don't know if these numbers are gonna be right. This is like my old sheet, but. Yeah, that might be probably our highest free cash flow since Q3 2022.

好的，我不太确定。嗯，只是看看有没有人知道。有谁知道那里发生了什么吗？好的，我会继续。自由现金流为2742。所以再次强调，这是一个很棒的数字，尽管特斯拉在这个季度生产的车辆多于销售的数量。自由现金流极其强劲。我不确定这些数据是否准确，因为这是我之前的旧表格。不过，这可能是我们自2022年第三季度以来最高的自由现金流。

So highest free cash flow in two years. That's nice. Okay, let's do ASP. So let me grab some of these numbers and then ASP will calculate for us. So auto revenue from leasing was 446 million. Was 446 million. Cogs from leasing. It's 247 million. And deliveries. Least. Find that here. 14,449. So that looks a little bit different than what Tesla had said. Getting nervous that my numbers aren't right here now. It's possible. These things should be right. I mean, I can check the formulas here, but. Auto revenue, auto revenue, X credits. Credits at leasing. So. There we go. If I could just type, then I wouldn't have errors. Okay. Glad to double check that. So there we go. 35,106. So that aligns again with what Tesla had said. Those make more sense. Great. Okay, so 6% decline year over year in average selling price, but 6% decline in automotive cogs is great. So this excludes regular story credits. This excludes leasing. FSD revenue recognition, I think, would still get pulled into this. So it's probably helping increase the ASP. I think that's how it would end up being recognized. Obviously, that's a little bit weird when you're grouping something that's a recognition for past vehicle sales into the average selling price of things this quarter, but I think that's just how the math is probably unfolding in terms of how this is put together.

两年来最高的自由现金流。这很不错。好，现在来计算ASP（平均销售价格）。让我查看一些数据，然后计算ASP。汽车租赁收入为4.46亿美元，租赁成本为2.47亿美元，交付量为14,449辆。这看起来与特斯拉提供的数据有点不同，现在有些担心我手上的数据是否正确。这些数据应该是对的，我可以检查一下公式。汽车收入，不包括积分。租赁积分。 好了，如果我能正常输入，就不会有错误。很高兴能够仔细检查一下。现在是35,106。这又与特斯拉的数据一致了。这更合理。很好。那么平均销售价格同比下降了6%，但汽车成本下降6%是个好消息。这不包括普通的积分故事，不包括租赁。我认为FSD（全自动驾驶）收入的确认可能仍会对ASP有所帮助。我想这就是它如何被确认的表现。当然，把过去汽车销售的收入确认纳入本季度的平均销售价格有点怪异，但我认为这只是数学计算出来的结果。

But let's say for now, $42,000 ASP, $35,100 average costs and obviously the revenue recognition, maybe there's a little bit of cost recognition associated with that, but probably not too significant. $1700 decline in average selling or average cost of goods sold this quarter, excluding regular story credits, excluding leasing. So that's a really phenomenal progress. We, you know, Tesla's been kind of chipping away. They've it's actually even increased a little bit here as Cybertruck probably ramped. That's probably what's driving those. But it seems like maybe not a breakthrough, but significant progress in probably the impact of Cybertruck costs this quarter, helping, helping do that. And then Model 3, right? Like that was recently refreshed. It's going to take Tesla time to work through that lower costs. And then just the volume as you, you know, deliver more and more vehicles, the volume is obviously going to help the gross margin from an economy of scale perspective. So really, really happy with that. Hopefully Tesla can continue to work that down even further.

目前来说，我们假设平均售价为42,000美元，平均成本为35,100美元。显然，收入确认可能会伴随一些成本确认，但可能影响不大。本季度产品销售价或平均销售成本下降了1,700美元，不包括常规商店信用和租赁。这确实是一个了不起的进步。你知道，特斯拉一直在不断进步。他们甚至在Cybertruck可能产量提升时增加了一点产量。这也许不是一次突破，但在Cybertruck本季度成本影响上取得了重大进展，也为实现这个目标提供了帮助。而且，Model 3最近进行了更新，因此特斯拉需要时间来消化较低的成本。此外，随着越来越多车辆的交付，销售量显然会通过规模经济的角度帮助提高毛利率。所以，我们对此非常满意。希望特斯拉能继续进一步降低成本。

Like I believe they said in the shareholder letter, these, this number is probably the single biggest factor of why the stock is responding so positively right now. I mean, you can look at this and you can say, yeah, it's a bottom line beat by 20%, right? Like fantastic. But what's driving that is, you know, lower costs on Tesla's vehicle sales. Which is letting them capture more margin, which is making the business stronger and healthier and probably most importantly, reflect reflects positively on what Tesla can accomplish from here with their current product lineup in terms of continuing to lower pricing, continuing to drive volume, which as volume goes higher, hopefully that improves costs. It's a very positive, very, very positive cycle, which is converse to how things have been trending, where you have these margin declines, you get all of the opposite sort of effects and concerns and things like that. So very, very happy to see to see that. That's, that's probably the biggest takeaway.

就像他们在股东信中提到的，这个数字可能是股票反应如此积极的最大因素。我是说，你可以看到这是利润增长了20%，这太棒了。但推动这一点的因素是特斯拉汽车销售成本的降低，这让他们能够获得更高的利润率，使业务更强大、更健康，可能最重要的是，这积极地反映了特斯拉现有产品系列在未来的潜力，比如继续降低价格、提高销量。随着销量的增加，希望成本会得到改善。这是一个非常积极的循环，与之前的趋势相反，当时利润率下降，会引发一系列负面的效果和担忧。所以，非常高兴看到这一点。这可能是最大的收获。

And again, that's flowing through to total gross margin. It's flowing through to operating margin. On the OpEx line, Tesla is definitely controlling operating expenditures, you know, really well. You can see operating costs here, even if you take out the 622, which I don't think that calculates. Oh, it does. So even if you take out these restructuring costs, you can see a Tesla was able to cut operating expenses by, you know, $130 million since last quarter, $300 million since two quarters ago. So, you know, Tesla's being very prudent with where the business is at right now in these operating costs. You know, $300 million is pretty significant when we're talking about these operating income numbers or these, or the net income numbers. So, you know, again, kudos to Tesla. That's not something that I've ever been concerned about. Like Tesla does a really good job keeping those things in line. Um, that's one of the reasons they're, you know, such a, such a healthy, strong business is, is that ability to do that. So good to see that continuing to reflect a strong number here. All right.

再一次，这直接影响到了总毛利率和营业利润率。在运营支出方面，特斯拉无疑在非常有效地控制运营费用。即使不考虑6.22亿美元这一项（尽管它确实算在内了），你可以看到特斯拉自上季度以来削减了大约1.3亿美元的运营费用，相较于两季度前则减少了3亿美元。在当前的营运成本上，特斯拉表现得非常谨慎。考虑到营业收入或净收入的数字时，3亿美元的减少是相当显著的。因此，得再次称赞特斯拉，这一直不是我担心的问题。特斯拉在控制这些方面做得相当出色。这也是他们成为一家健康、强大企业的原因之一。所以，很高兴看到这一点继续反映出强劲的数据。

So yeah, the biggest thing, uh, this, this automotive gross margin, X credit, 17.1%, really strong number. Small asterisk is we need to see from the 10 key report how much FSD revenue recognition was, was in there. They did just say it was for cyber truck and actually smart summon. I can't imagine that's going to be a huge, huge number. I'd be pretty surprised. Um, although I think all the foundation series cyber trucks did have FSD. So, you know, if you've got an $8,000. Cost associated with, with that, I mean, we can project through the math. What, what were they like 24, 25,000 cyber trucks at that point? So I could be like $200 million of FSD. I don't think they would recognize it entirely. So maybe it's a hundred million. Don't know what percent Tesla recognizes, but, um, could be a decent amount. I'm hoping it's not so decent that it's making this, you know, look, look different than it really is in reality, but something to keep an eye on.

所以，呃，最主要的一点是，这个汽车的毛利率，除去补贴，达到了17.1%，这是一个非常强劲的数字。不过，有个小小的附注是，我们需要从10-K报告中查看有多少是来源于全自动驾驶（FSD）的收入确认。据称，这些收入是来自于Cybertruck和智能召唤功能。我想象不出这是一个非常大的数字，如果是的话我会很惊讶。虽然我认为所有基础系列的Cybertruck都是配备了FSD的，如果每辆车的FSD成本是8000美元，我们可以通过数学计算推测出来。当时是不是有大约2.4万到2.5万台Cybertruck？这样计算可能会有2亿美元的FSD收入，我不认为他们会全部确认，可能是一亿美元。我不清楚特斯拉确认的百分比是多少，不过也可能是个相当可观的数字。我希望它不会大到让这个17.1%的毛利率看起来与现实不符，但这还是需要我们关注的。

Okay. Let's see what the, see what the stock is doing here. We can hop back to the, the browser and then I'll just go through again, super chats and, uh, see what, what questions people have and things like that. Again, we will go through, uh, through earnings here as well. For those curious, we started at 9,500 before the financial or at 8,000 people watching now. So decent retention, I suppose for, uh, watching someone fill out a spreadsheet. Um, but hopefully the commentary is helpful. I mean, it helps me to go through those things. So that's why I do it. Um, Oh, well now it says 9,700. So I don't know. Maybe we gain a couple hundred people.

好的。让我们看看股票的情况。我们可以回到浏览器，然后我会再看看超级聊天，看看大家有什么问题之类的。同样，我们也会查看一下收益情况。对于那些好奇的人，我们之前从9500开始，现在有8000人在观看。所以我猜在看别人填写电子表格的情况下，观众保留率还不错。不过我希望评论能对大家有所帮助。对我来说，梳理这些内容也是有帮助的，这也是我这样做的原因。哦，现在显示9700人。所以我不知道，也许我们增加了几百人。

Okay. Uh, yeah, let's check out the stock. So up 8 and a half percent. So that's really nice. It's been a while. I don't, I don't remember the last time we had a, a really strong positive reaction to earnings.

好的，嗯，是的，我们来看看股票。上涨了8.5%。这非常不错。已经有一段时间了，我不记得上次对盈利有这么强烈的正面反应是什么时候了。

Uh, again, we still have to get through the call, but, uh, I think that's a positive. All right. One thing I do want to talk about, um, before the kind of getting into the question, so let's look at kind of this product outlook section. And I just want to tell people like kind of where my, my head is at.

好的，我们仍然需要完成这个电话会议，但我觉得这是一个积极的信号。在我们进入提问环节之前，我想谈一件事。让我们来看一下这个产品展望部分。我只是想告诉大家我目前的想法。

So plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. Okay. And I think even up here, they said maybe even what deliveries are. We will be even launching in the first half of 2025. So I get not super clear on what launching means. Maybe that means launching production. Maybe it means launching orders, deliveries, whatever else.

因此，新车型的计划，包括更实惠的版本，仍然计划在2025年上半年开始生产。好的。我觉得甚至在上面，他们可能还提到交付的时间。我们将在2025年上半年开始推出。所以我不是特别明白“推出”具体指什么。可能是指开始生产，也可能是指开始接受订单或交付，还有其他可能。

Uh, but new products for staff 2025, having that reiterated is great. Um, now, what does that actually mean? I think a lot of people are thinking that's like a model to or like a cybercab with like a steering wheel, probably not many people think that for that timeline. But, um, I think if it were some significantly new vehicle, uh, we probably would have seen something about it by now or Tesla probably would have had to have talked about it by now, just given the sort of timing from unveiling to release that kind of needs to happen.

嗯，但是为2025年员工准备的新产品能够被重申是很棒的。那么，这实际上意味着什么呢？我想很多人认为这像是Model 2或者带方向盘的Cybercab，但考虑到时间线，可能没有多少人这样想。不过，我觉得如果真是某种具有重大意义的新车型，我们现在可能已经看到了某些信息，或者特斯拉可能早就需要对其进行一些讨论了，这种从发布到推出的时间安排是需要发生的。

I think the quickest that's ever been for Tesla is probably the model Y, which maybe was nine months. I'd have to go back and look at that, but it was, it was very, very quick from sort of product unveiling to real startup production.

我认为特斯拉最快的车型可能是Model Y，从产品发布到真正开始生产，大概用了九个月。这需要我去查一下，但的确是非常非常快的。

So we're now definitely in that if we're talking about the first half of 2025, uh, where we, you know, if there was some new vehicle, I think we probably would have seen that new vehicle. We're starting to get more into like the refresh timelines, right? Like what we've seen for, for the Highland Model 3, uh, for the updated SNX when, you know, when that was announced at an earnings call, uh, probably, I don't know, was that three years ago now? I can't even remember, but, um, that's where I'm kind of like putting my expectation is, is some sort of, some sort of an update to what Tesla is doing with, with Model 3 and Model Y.

所以，如果我们在谈论2025年上半年，那么我们现在非常确定的情况是，如果有任何新车问世，我想我们可能已经会看到这款新车了。我们开始更加关注车型的更新周期，就像我们所看到的Highland版本的Model 3，以及之前财报电话会上宣布的更新版SNX。我记不清楚那是三年前还是多久前，但我对特斯拉的期待是，他们在Model 3和Model Y方面会有某种更新。

And maybe there's some sort of variation of, of those vehicles that they, they then add. I don't know. I'm just trying to at least for my own expectations and hopefully other people just keep them a little bit lower and not necessarily just expecting that all of a sudden out of nowhere in six months, we're going to have this brand new. $25,000 car vehicle, right? Like that's, that's something that I think seems pretty unlikely.

或许他们会在那些车辆的基础上做一些改动，我不太清楚。我只是希望至少能调整一下自己的期望，希望其他人也不要过于期待说突然在六个月内就会出现一款全新的、售价为25,000美元的汽车。我觉得这种情况似乎不太可能发生。

I think, I think Tesla's strategy is. Maximize volume on this, on their current production lines, however they can do that, whether it's adding, you know, whether it's a refresh or whatever. Um, how can they cut costs out of that? How can they go to new markets? How can they just really maximize the volume on those current lines and try to get it up to that 3 million vehicle per year level, which I think maybe it's not designed for, but is designed to be able to accommodate that type of volume, uh, sort of in the current footprint that Tesla has.

我认为，特斯拉的策略是尽量增加现有生产线的产量。无论通过何种方式，比如增加新车型或者对现有车型进行改款，他们的目标都是如何削减成本、进入新市场。特斯拉想要最大限度地提高这些生产线的产量，努力达到每年300万辆的水平。我认为，这些生产线也许最初不是专门为此设计的，但如今的布局能够支撑这种产量。

If they were going to do some $25,000 vehicle, like what maybe people had expected for a long time, that's, that's just a different type of project. That's something where you need probably an additional factory, like a gig of Mexico, which, you know, obviously we're, we're not seeing that, um, that really happen at any significant scale.

如果他们打算生产一款大约售价为2.5万美元的汽车，就像人们长期以来期望的那样，那么这将是一个不同类型的项目。这种项目可能需要额外的工厂，比如在墨西哥建立一个超级工厂。但显然，我们并没有看到这类事情在任何显著规模上真正发生。

Now, I know Tesla's got giga Texas and I know that some of the reporting was that the initial $25,000 car would be a giga Texas. A lot of those things make sense, but. If you're going to invest, I don't know how many billions of dollars in something that would eventually require a new factory, require new lines, require this new process, uh, we'd, we'd be seeing things like that.

现在，我知道特斯拉在德克萨斯有个超级工厂，我也知道有报道说，他们最初的2.5万美元电动车会在那里生产。很多这些事情确实有道理，但是如果你打算投资数十亿美元在某个项目上，而且这个项目最终需要一个新工厂、新的生产线和新工艺，那么我们应该会看到这方面的进展。

So, uh, just something to that scale doesn't seem to make sense. It doesn't seem to fit with what Tesla is talking about here. So just urging caution on that point, which means if Tesla, we're going to do something like that, do a $25,000 car, do the cybercab with maybe a steering wheel. I know a lot of people think that maybe that's something that could happen. Uh, and obviously it could, but.

所以，呃，这么大规模的东西似乎不太合适。这与特斯拉正在谈论的内容不太符合。所以在这一点上要谨慎，这意味着如果特斯拉打算做类似的事情，比如推出一款售价25,000美元的车，或者带方向盘的Cybercab。我知道很多人认为这种情况可能会发生，呃，当然也可能会，但。

I think Tesla's at the point now and it he lands at the point now where he's confident enough in FSD to maybe not like bet the company, but like bet this, this next generation product lineup on achieving FSD. I think that's what he wants to do. I think he wants the company. I think he wants the forcing function of, of having no steering wheel of, of not having like a backup plan that they can just throw a steering wheel into this vehicle. I think it's really just built to be a robot taxi.

我认为特斯拉现在已经到了这样一个阶段，埃隆·马斯克对自动驾驶技术（FSD）充满信心，虽然可能不会赌上整个公司，但会把下一代产品线押在实现自动驾驶上。我觉得这正是他想要做的。他希望公司设计出一种没有方向盘的车辆，没有备用计划可以轻易加装方向盘。我认为这样的车辆实际上就是为了成为自动出租车而建造的。

That's what it's going to be. I, I would be surprised if there's a cybercab that ships with a steering wheel. Um, and certainly not my expectation in this, you know, sort of next six month period. Um, and the reason I think that is because I could, I don't know, I should probably just do like an episode on this in general, but. I think Elon, like if, if you, back to the, the CapEx point, something like a $25,000 car, let's call it even a $30,000 car. The infrastructure required for that and to produce, you know, let's say like four million of those per year, or something like that, three or four million. Um, you have billions of dollars in CapEx. You've got so much time going into that from an engineering perspective. Um, it's going to cannibalize the current lineup. As soon as people know about that, people are going to be waiting for that. And then once it's in production, it's going to make the Model three and Model Y even more difficult to sell.

这就是事情的发展。我会感到惊讶，如果有装有方向盘的未来出租车问世。而在接下来的六个月内，我完全没有这个预期。我之所以这样认为，是因为我不太清楚，我可能应该在这方面专门做一期节目。我觉得，拿埃隆举例来说，如果回到资本支出这个话题，比如一款售价在2.5万美元，甚至3万美元的汽车，为了支持这种规模生产，比如每年生产三四百万辆这样的汽车，需要投入数十亿美元资本支出。在工程方面也需要投入大量的时间。这将会对现有产品线造成冲击。一旦人们了解这个消息，就会开始等待这个新款车的推出，然后一旦这种车投产，Model 3和Model Y的销售将变得更加困难。

Um, just like what we've seen with SNX, when the three and Y came, right? Like that has obviously significantly impacted the upside for, for SNX, uh, for good reason, right? Like the, the Model three and the Model Y are better value vehicles. And if you had something like a Model three or a Model Y at a cheaper price, it's just going to make three in the Y that much more difficult to sell. So you've got those kinds of challenges. You've got a charge at like human resource challenges. You've got, you know, engineering challenge, like a lot of challenges, CapEx, all these things going into this $25,000, $30,000 car. When from you on's perspective, we're right on the cusp of having autonomous vehicles. It doesn't really make much sense to put those sort of resources into something that's then going to be at least a five year project.

嗯，就像我们在SNX上看到的，当Model 3和Model Y出现时，对吧？这显然对SNX的潜力产生了显著的影响，这是有充分理由的。因为Model 3和Model Y是性价比更高的车辆。如果出现类似Model 3或Model Y的更便宜版本，那就会让Model 3和Model Y的销售变得更加困难。所以，你会遇到类似这样的问题。还有人力资源、工程等方面的挑战，比如很多挑战，还有资本支出等等，这些因素都涉及到这个价格在2.5万到3万美元的汽车。而从Elon Musk的角度来看，我们正处于拥有自动驾驶汽车的边缘。因此，将资源投入一个至少需要五年时间的项目显得不太合理。

If you think there's going to be, you know, with 90%, 95% certainty, if you think you're going to figure out FSD in that time period, you should be putting all of your efforts towards something like the robot taxi that takes advantage of that thing that you're going to have developed in that time period. Otherwise, you're kind of wasting all those resources when you should have put them towards the, the autonomous future. And that's what Elon's thinking about. That's what he's focused on. That's what he's been talking about for the last two years and beyond. Like he just, I just don't think that the $25,000 car achieves what he wants to achieve with Tesla at this stage. I think he wants to do the robot taxi. I think he wants, again, that forcing function.

如果你认为在未来的时间段内有90%到95%的把握能够解决FSD问题，那么你应该把所有的努力放在像机器人出租车这样的项目上，以利用你在那个时间段内开发出的技术。否则，你就是在浪费那些资源，而这些资源本该用于推动自动驾驶的未来。这正是埃隆所考虑的，也是他所专注的事情，以及他过去两年来一直在谈论的话题。我认为售价2.5万美元的汽车并不能实现他在这个阶段对特斯拉的期望。我觉得他更多是想实现机器人出租车项目，他想要那个推动力。

I think that's where he wants to put the resources. And yeah, you could hedge it. You could design a vehicle like it with a steering wheel. I don't think that the market demand for like a two seat vehicle like this, if it's not autonomous would be that great. Um, so then you, you have uncertainty around that. Could it fit four seats? You know, if you do that, you're significantly changing a lot of the elements in the vehicle. kind of a rant here, but just. The more and more that I think about it, it just like from Elon's perspective, if you think FSD is coming soon, which I think he very clearly does, it just, it doesn't make a lot of sense. So that's how my expectations are set right now. And the way that I think about everything is pretty much always in probabilities and on spectrums and things like that.

我觉得他想把资源投入到这个方向。是的，你可以对冲这种风险，可以设计一个带方向盘的类似车辆。不过，如果不是自动驾驶，这种两座车辆的市场需求可能不会很大。所以，这方面存在不确定性。如果增加到四个座位呢？这样做会对车辆的很多元素进行重大改变。有点像是在发牢骚，不过越来越多地去思考这件事，从埃隆的角度来看，如果你认为全自动驾驶即将到来，而我相信他显然是这么想的，那么这种做法就不太合理。所以这就是我目前的期望设定方式。对我来说，思考一切问题基本都是基于概率和不同的可能性。

I think, you know, it's not impossible that my, my thoughts could be off on this, but just in terms of like probability waiting, that seems more likely to me than, than not. So again, I can go through it even like math wise, I should probably do an episode and just like explain more of my thoughts on that, but that's kind of where my head is at, um, at the moment. So for the next six months, I think we see something with Model Y, like obviously Juniper is going on. I think that'll be an even more significant updates model Y than what we saw with the Highland Model three. Um, and you know, my expectation for that is probably right in line here with what they're talking about for a staff 2025. So. Hopefully we'll see something in addition to that, but that's kind of like my, my baseline expectation.

我觉得，呃，你知道，我的想法可能会有偏差，但从概率上来看，这种情况对我来说更有可能发生。因此，我可能应该做一个节目，从数学角度解释一下我的想法，但目前这就是我的想法。所以在接下来的六个月里，我认为我们会看到Model Y的一些进展，比如Juniper项目显然正在进行中。我认为这将是比我们在Highland版Model 3上看到的更新更重要的改进。我对这个项目的期待基本上符合他们对于2025年下半年所说的内容。所以，希望能看到一些额外的东西，但这就是我的基本预期。

Um, it would seem like there would also need to be something a little bit, um, you know, something else to really move them towards that three million level. Um, especially because we've heard them say before they, if you like the incrementality of cost of good, sold improvement is, you know, it's, it's declining a little bit in terms of just like the ability to continue to progress and lower costs on the current line. Um, obviously we saw improvements this quarter, but again, I think that's probably more, more cyber truck related. Okay. Well, uh, let me get back to the, the chats here.

嗯，看起来他们可能还需要一点其他东西来真正推动他们达到三百万的水平。尤其是因为我们之前听他们说过，如果你喜欢销售成本的提升带来的增量收益，这种收益在降低成本方面的能力略有下降。在当前产品线上，继续取得进展和降低成本的能力有些减弱。显然，我们在这个季度看到了改进，但我认为这可能更多与Cybertruck相关。好的，那么，我回到聊天记录。

All right. So again, thank you for all the super chats. I really appreciate that. You guys are always so welcoming when I come back. It's, I mean, it's awesome. And again, once the earnings call starts, it's about, we're about 30 minutes out from that all, uh, on the same, same channel here, a different episode, but it'll, or different, different link. We'll do the normal, normal earnings coverage as well. Um, all right. So a question here, NHTSA, I know this is terrible to read. Uh, there we go. NHTSA is investigating accidents caused by camera obscuring. Do you think we'll need new slash more cameras to fix that problem? Um, not sure. I'm super familiar with that report. I know there was an investigation relating to like, I thought I was relating to some, but maybe that was something different. I need to look more closely at that, but relating to the question, do you think we'll need new or more cameras to fix that problem? Um, you know, the, the cyber cab camera setup was very similar to what we've seen before. It did have that front camera, like a cyber truck does, um, on, on these prototype vehicles. So I think Tesla's pretty locked in on, uh, on a camera placement.

好的。再次感谢大家的超级留言，我真的很感激。每次我回来时，你们总是如此热情欢迎我，实在是太好了。另外，一旦财报电话会议开始，我们现在离那还有大约30分钟，将会在这个频道进行，但会是一个不同的节目或链接。我们也会像往常一样进行财报的正常报道。好的，这里有个问题，关于国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA），我知道这很难读。NHTSA在调查因摄像头被遮挡引起的事故。你认为我们需要新的或更多的摄像头来解决这个问题吗？我对这个报告不是特别熟悉，我知道有一个关于这方面的调查，我以为是与其他事情有关，但也许是不同的。我需要更仔细地研究一下这个问题。不过关于这个问题，你认为我们需要新的或更多的摄像头来解决这个问题吗？网络车的摄像头设置与我们之前看到的非常相似，就像网络卡车（Cybertruck）一样，前面有一个摄像头，在这些原型车辆上。所以我认为特斯拉在摄像头的放置上还是很坚定的。

Yeah. John, I always appreciate that. Sorry to hear about, about your father, but hope he's doing all right. Um, just about again, maybe they could fund advertising and fight misinformation. So yeah, I'm, I'm a proponent of this. I think I've, you know, we've talked a lot about the advertising, uh, sort of thesis over the years. I'm in favor of it. I know Tesla's done some testing of it. It's all been very small scale, uh, especially when Tesla does these, like financing promotion promotional offers, just like how are, how are, how are people supposed to know about that? If you're not like in the Tesla community on X or you don't happen to know someone that tells you, those are great resources of, of telling some people, but it's definitely not, it's definitely not hitting everyone.

好的，约翰，我一直很感激你。很遗憾听到你父亲的事情，但希望他一切都好。关于广告和打击虚假信息的资助，我是支持的。多年来，我们一直在讨论广告的理论，我对此持支持态度。我知道特斯拉进行过一些小规模的测试，尤其是在推出融资促销优惠时。如果你不是特斯拉社区的一员，或者没有人告诉你这些信息，你很可能就会错过。这些社区是很好的信息来源，但显然无法覆盖到所有人。

Um, and I know Tesla sales do extremely well in Colorado, but man, the incentives that stack there, uh, in addition to some of the promotions that Tesla's now offering, it's like insane. Like why would you ever buy any other car? Um, it's not like it's free, but when you consider gas costs, it's like, it's almost free to just buy a Tesla instead. So, uh, obviously depending on your use cases, but yeah, I would definitely be in favor of more advertising. Um, just let people know how, how cheap the vehicles are.

嗯，我知道特斯拉在科罗拉多州的销量非常好。那里的各种优惠叠加起来，再加上特斯拉最近的一些促销，真的让人觉得不可思议。就像，为什么还要买其他车呢？当然，它不是免费的，但考虑到油费，把钱花在买特斯拉上几乎就像是免费的。所以，这当然取决于你的使用情况，但我绝对赞成更多的广告宣传，让人们知道这些车有多便宜。

Um, the model two is a two-seater. I don't think it would cannibalize three Y slash that's a different market. Yeah, it would be if it were a two-seater, it'd be a different market, but it's also probably a very small market. Like I don't think, you know, I don't think a two-seat volume that's not a Robotaxi.

嗯，Model 2 是一款双座车型。我认为这不会对 Model 3 或 Model Y 造成影响，因为它们针对的是不同的市场。是的，如果它是双座车，那确实是个不同的市场，但这个市场可能非常小。我不认为双座车会有很大的销量，除非它是自动驾驶出租车。

Um, just, you know, that's if you were to break down the market today of like two-seat vehicles versus four-seat vehicles, four plus, it's, it's got to be very, very small. Very small. It's kind of like sports cars and that's it, I would think. So.

嗯，就是说，如果你要分析一下今天市场上两座车和四座及以上车型的比例，应该是非常非常小的。非常小。我想可能就像那种跑车之类的车型，仅此而已。所以。

All right. Um, up nine percent. Great. Things are holding, holding well there. Um, let me just take a look at some of the not super chat stuff here. Yeah, separate video for the call. So that's linked in the description below. So I'll, I'm this one and then we'll do the, the separate one for the call, but I think it'll auto direct you over there too. Um, I set it up to try to do that. So we'll see.

好的。那么，上涨了9%。太好了。目前的情况保持得不错。让我来看一下这里一些不在超级聊天里的内容。是的，通话的单独视频链接在下面的描述中。所以我会做这个，然后再做通话的单独视频，但我想系统会自动把你引导到那边。我已经设置好了这个功能，我们看看效果如何。

Um, Yeah, if anyone, uh, figured out what's going on with the, uh, that gap earnings or gap net income, let me know. I'll try to figure it out if not just hard to do on the live stream. All right. I'm going to wrap it up here. Uh, but again, we'll start the call in, in a little bit. Uh, appreciate you guys. It's, it's awesome, uh, hanging out, talking to us like again. So, um, looking forward to more of it in about 30 minutes. We'll see you there. Thank you.

嗯，如果有人弄清楚了那个差额收益或者差额净收入的问题，请告诉我。如果没有，我会试着弄明白，只是在直播上有点困难。好的，我要结束这段了。但我们等会儿会开始电话会议。感谢大家，真的很高兴能和你们交流。期待大约30分钟后能再次见到你们。谢谢。