Markets Weekly October 19, 2024

My friends, today is October 19th and this is Markets Weekly. So this past week, we had another pretty good weekend markets, S&P Vllef 100 at a new all-time highs. Now, remember not too long ago, we were talking about how seasonally this is not a good time for markets, but I guess it just powers through. Let's see if we can continue. Now today, let's talk about three things. First, there's some interesting policy diversions emerging among global central banks, and that seems to be driving some currency impact. Let's talk about what's happening there.

朋友们，今天是10月19日，欢迎收看《市场周报》。在过去一周，市场表现相当不错，S&P Vllef 100 创下了新高。还记得不久前，我们还在讨论季节性因素，这段时间对市场并不有利，但市场似乎还是强势突破了。让我们看看这种表现能否持续下去。今天我们来讨论三件事。首先，各国中央银行之间出现了一些有趣的政策分歧，这似乎对货币产生了一些影响。让我们来谈谈这方面的情况。

Secondly, now something really interesting is happening in the political markets. The past week, it seems like the political markets are increasingly confident of a Trump win and maybe, maybe a potential red sweep. And that seems to be showing up in certain markets as well. Let's talk about what happened last week in politics. And lastly, so I heard this really interesting podcast on macro museums from Professor Emilio Cambio, a professor in Argentina talking about the case for dollarization in Argentina and how they got to where they are today. Let's talk about some interesting things from his paper.

其次，现在政治市场中正在发生一些非常有趣的事情。过去一周里，政治市场似乎越来越看好特朗普的胜利，并且可能会出现红色全面胜利的潜力。这种趋势似乎也在某些市场中有所体现。我们来谈谈上周政治领域发生了什么。最后，我听了一期非常有趣的播客，内容是关于阿根廷教授埃米利奥·坎比奥对宏观博物馆的看法，他讨论了阿根廷推行美元化的理由以及他们今天的状况。让我们谈谈他论文中的一些有趣观点。

Alright, starting with central bank divergences. So this past week, we got some more really good economic data in the US. Now, not too long ago, people were worried about a US recession. Then we had a blockbuster jobs report and people stopped worrying about that. Now, this past week, we got a consumer spending data and it was really good. Actually, it blew way past expectations. US consumers continued to spend. And that's probably going to continue as long as the stock market goes higher. Now, with all this good data, the Atlanta GDP now is now revising upwards. It's forecast for US GDP, too, comfortably above 3%.

好的，先从央行的不同政策说起。过去这一周，美国发布了一些非常好的经济数据。不久前，人们还在担心美国经济衰退。然后，我们得到了一个超预期的就业报告，大家就不再担心了。接着，这周又有消费者支出数据出炉，结果非常亮眼，远远超过预期。美国的消费者继续花钱，只要股市继续上涨，这种趋势可能会持续下去。由于这些良好的数据，亚特兰大联储现在也上调了美国GDP的预测，预计增速轻松超过3%。

Now, that is leading the interest rate markets to price in fewer Fed cuts. Now, not too long ago, the market was thinking that we might get another 50 basis point cut either in November or December. And then the markets began to think we'll just get to 25 basis point cuts for the rest of the year. And now there's some slight chance of the Fed just maybe skipping November. Now again, slight chance. We do have some Fed presidents talking about, hey, you know, the economy is doing better than I thought. We got to lower rates deliberately again, again, but I think the base case continues to be 225 basis point cuts, although fewer cuts next year. So overall, the US economy appears to be doing better than expected. And so the market is pricing in fewer cuts over the next couple years.

现在，这导致利率市场预计美联储将减少降息次数。不久前，市场普遍认为我们可能在11月或12月会有50个基点的降息。但随后市场开始认为今年剩下的时间里，我们可能只会看到两次25个基点的降息。而现在有一点点可能性，美联储可能会跳过11月的降息。当然这只是很小的可能性。有一些美联储主席表示，嘿，经济表现比我预期的要好，我们需要更加谨慎地降低利率。我认为基本的预期仍然是会有两次25个基点的降息，尽管明年的降息次数可能会更少。总体而言，美国经济表现好于预期，因此市场预计未来几年降息的次数会减少。

Now, at the same time, though, there's a different story happening in other regions of the world. Now, looking up north in Canada, now recent CPA data in Canada shows that inflation is actually low 2% over there. And there are some concerns of economic growth. And so the market is now thinking that maybe the Bank of Canada would cut by 50 basis points when it meets the next week. Now looking over in Euroland, starting with the UK, now UK CPI has also been coming in a bit lower than expected. Now that is also leading the market to increase its expectations of cuts from the Bank of England. Now, this past week, the ECB met and they cut rates again.

现在，然而在世界的其他地区，情况却有所不同。首先，看看北方的加拿大，最新的加拿大消费者价格指数（CPI）数据显示，那里的通货膨胀率实际上很低，仅为2%。同时，人们对经济增长存在一些担忧。因此，市场现在认为加拿大央行可能会在下周的会议上将利率下调50个基点。在欧洲地区，首先关注英国，英国的消费者价格指数（CPI）也比预期的要低一些。这也导致市场增加了对英国央行降息的预期。而在过去一周，欧洲中央银行（ECB）召开了会议，并再次下调了利率。

Now, what's happening in the Eurozone is similar to what's happening in the other countries. Inflation is lower than expected, right? Looking at headline, it's already below 2% largely due to energy prices. But at the same time, their economy is not doing this well. Remember, we've talked about the PMI data over there. It looks like growth is becoming softer. And ECB officials have been more and more concerned about just poor growth. And so the market is thinking that they will cut again in December as well. So on the one hand, as the US is becoming outperforming, on the other hand, many other countries are underperforming. And so that's leading to a whining diversions and policy expectations and leading to surprising dollar strength.

现在，欧元区的情况类似于其他国家的情况。通货膨胀率低于预期，对吗？从总体数据来看，通胀率已经低于2%，这主要是由于能源价格的原因。但与此同时，他们的经济表现不佳。记得我们之前讨论过那里的采购经理人指数（PMI）数据，看起来经济增长在放缓。欧洲央行的官员们越来越担心增长疲软。因此，市场预计他们将在12月再次降息。一方面，美国的表现优于其他国家，但另一方面，许多其他国家表现不佳。这导致了政策预期的分歧加大，并导致美元意外走强。

Now, not too long ago, again, Fed market was pricing in aggressive Fed cuts. On top of that, massive deficits, dollar was weakening a lot. And now, the past couple of weeks, we've seen substantial dollar strength thing with EuroUSD below 1.1. And of course, the dollar index just spiking now. I don't know if that's going to continue, but it is a notable divergence that we've seen in recent weeks. But part of that dollar strength thing, though, may not just be due to monetary policy divergence, but there are also political dimensions as well.

最近，在不久之前，美联储市场还预期会有激进的降息。此外，由于巨大的财政赤字，美元走弱。然而，在过去几周里，我们看到了美元显著走强，欧元兑美元汇率跌破1.1，美元指数也在迅速上升。我不确定这种趋势是否会持续，但这确实是最近几周的一个显著变化。不过，美元的这种走强可能不仅仅由于货币政策的分歧，还有其他政治因素的影响。

So this past week, we've had a really big surge in the odds of a Trump victory in betting markets. Right now, the markets are strongly fair, being a Trump victory. Now, to be clear, these are markets can be moved by small bets as some people have noted. But then again, if you look at the history of Pauline market, you notice that it was around 50, 50 for some time. It's really the past week that things have changed. And of course, there are also other betting markets as well, like predicted that also show an increasing Trump victory and Nate Silver's motto, although having both candidates at 50, 50 has steadily moved up Trump's odds.

过去一周，投注市场中特朗普胜选的几率大幅上升。目前，这些市场普遍认为特朗普的胜算较高。需要澄清的是，这些市场可能会受到一些小额度投注的影响。但如果你回顾之前的Pauline市场，会发现它一直在50对50左右徘徊。真正的变化是在过去一周发生的。当然，还有其他预测市场，例如PredictIt，也显示特朗普胜算增加。即使Nate Silver的模型最开始将两位候选人的几率定为50对50，如今也在稳步上升特朗普的胜算。

Now, what's happening seems to be that as the candidates communicate more with the public, people are beginning to feel that vice president Harris probably is not the best. The chances are not as good. So remember, in the beginning of Harris's candidacy, she didn't speak very much. And she had a very good debate performance. But as we approach the finish line to the election, she's be giving more and more interviews, most recently, an interview on Fox News. It's only 20 minutes. I encourage you to watch it yourself. But that seems to be the interview that that seemed to convince many people that, you know, vice president Harris might not win.

现在，情况似乎是，随着候选人更多地与公众沟通，人们开始觉得副总统哈里斯可能不是最佳选择，获胜的机会不如预期。在哈里斯竞选初期，她说得并不多，并且在辩论中表现出色。但随着我们接近选举的终点，她接受了越来越多的采访，最近的一次是在福克斯新闻上的采访。虽然只有20分钟，但我建议你自己去看看。似乎就是这次采访让许多人认为，副总统哈里斯可能不会获胜。

I don't think this should be surprising to people. Now, remember in vice president Harris also wanted to be president in 2020. She ran in the Democratic primary, did very poorly, totally rejected by Democratic voters. And so she had to drop out. Now, this time around, again, there was no real competitive primary. She was basically installed by party insiders. But she's still the same person. And it seems like she's still not very popular. And as people began to listen to her speak more and more, I think people become, I guess increasingly aware of why she's was not able to make it through the primary the first time.

我认为这不应该让人感到意外。还记得，副总统哈里斯在2020年也想成为总统。她参加了民主党的初选，但表现很差，被民主党选民完全拒绝，因此不得不退出。这一次，初选并没有真正的竞争，她基本上是由党内人士推上来的。但她还是那个老样子，似乎还是不太受欢迎。随着大家越来越频繁地听她讲话，我想人们越来越能理解为什么她第一次没能通过初选。

Now, looking beyond the presidency, we also have, again, the Senate and the House. Now in the US, we have the legislators divided into two houses, the Senate and the House. Now, the Senate elections is staggered term. So every election cycle, only some only some Senate seats are up for election. Now, this time around, the Senate math makes it very likely that the Republicans will will keep the Senate that that's not really anyone, anything people talk about. But the House, though, it's a lot less certain. Now, I think the odds favor, according to people I've read, the odds favor, the Democrats taking the House.

现在，除了总统选举，我们还要看参议院和众议院。在美国，立法机构分为参议院和众议院两部分。参议院的选举是分阶段进行的，所以每个选举周期只有部分参议院席位进行选举。这次参议院的选举形势让共和党保留参议院的可能性很高，这并不是人们谈论的热门话题。但对于众议院，情况就不那么确定了。根据我阅读过的一些人的观点，民主党拿下众议院的可能性更大。

But if you have a president that is winning by a lot, you know, the odds are that the president will also, the president's party will also take the House as well. Because the way oftentimes people vote is that they don't actually know who their, you know, congressmen or House representative is. They just vote for the president and then go down the ballot and vote for, let's say, let's say you're voting for Trump, then just go down the ballot and vote for the sky who says he's a Republican and you just vote for him. You have no idea who he is. You don't really follow these congressional politics. But, you know, you just vote along party lines. And so oftentimes the president's party also does well in the House. And so if you have the Trump increasingly likely to win it and maybe by a lot, again, these are preliminary and they can change all the time, then it increases the odds of a Republican sweep, which opens up the door to big, big policy changes.

如果总统一方赢得大胜，那么总统所在的政党往往也会在众议院获胜。这是因为很多人投票时，其实并不知道谁是他们的国会议员或众议院代表。他们只是先投给总统，然后在选票上顺着投给同一党的候选人。比如说你投票给特朗普，然后你就会顺势投票给那个自称是共和党的人，而不清楚他是谁，也不太关注这些国会政治。因此，很多时候总统的政党在众议院的表现也会不错。如果特朗普有可能大幅领先，这会增加共和党全面胜出的机会，从而为重大的政策变革打开大门。不过要注意，这些预测是初步的，随时可能发生变化。

Now, looking in markets, you can also see that, you know, the market is pricing and it seems like some popular Trump trades are being priced in. For example, I look at Bitcoin. Now Trump famously wanted to be a Bitcoin president, very open to crypto. You can donate to Trump in crypto. And so Bitcoin is seems to be surging. Another very obvious Trump trade is DJT, Trump's media company. Again, declined a lot far from far from its all-time highs. But, you know, in the past couple of weeks has really surged. And I'd say the quintessential Trump trade is equity. So like everyone knows that Trump measures his performance by how the stock market is doing and the stock market is surging.

现在，观察市场，你可以看到市场正在调整，似乎一些与特朗普相关的热门交易正在被纳入考虑之中。比如说，我注意到了比特币。众所周知，特朗普曾表示自己希望成为一个支持比特币的总统，对于加密货币持开放态度。你可以用加密货币给特朗普捐款，所以比特币似乎正在飙升。另一个显而易见的特朗普相关交易是DJT，特朗普的媒体公司。虽然它距离历史最高点已大幅回落，但过去几周确实迅速反弹。我认为，典型的特朗普相关交易是股票交易，因为大家都知道特朗普是通过股市表现来衡量自己的成绩，而现在股市正在飙升。

Now, again, so there are many markets that have different impacts on the Trump trade. I would say that it's often thought that Trump would be bad for the bond market. We've seen the 10-year yield rise come to be above 4%. But I think that that's not that much priced in. And I think what I'll write about this week is just what a red sweep means to the interest rate market.

现在，很多市场对“特朗普交易”有不同影响。通常人们认为特朗普不利于债券市场。我们看到十年期国债收益率上升到超过4%。但我认为这种影响还没有完全反映在价格中。我想本周我会写写关于"红色横扫"对利率市场意味着什么。

Now, beyond that, though, looking at economic policy, one of the Trump's signature policies is, of course, tariffs. As he says, as he suggests, it's his favorite word in the dictionary. Now, if you listen to what Trump talks about when he talks about tariffs, he had a lengthy interview with Bloomberg News the past week. It's really clear that he views tariffs as a negotiating tool. So if you studied economics in school, like I did, people will all tell you that tariffs are not good, free trade is good, you know, everyone's a well better off and so forth.

现在，除了这个，再来看经济政策，特朗普的一个标志性政策当然就是关税。他说关税是他最喜欢的词汇。如果你听特朗普关于关税的言论，他上周与彭博新闻进行了一场长时间的采访。他显然把关税看作是一种谈判工具。如果你像我一样在学校学习过经济学，大家都会告诉你关税不好，自由贸易才好，这样每个人的生活都会更好。

But if you look at the economic performance over the past few decades, you know, a lot of people in the Midwest will say, well, you know, because of free trade, I have no job, right? And so my life is stringing out better. And if you look at China, well, you know, they don't really have free trade there. Right. If you are American business, you want to sell in China, not that easy. But if you're a Chinese business and you want to sell into the US, really easy. And as you can see, many things are made in China here in the US. And during those past few decades, China grew tremendously, right? Created millions and millions of jobs, raised hundreds and millions of people out of poverty. So obviously this free trade thing, which they did not do, seemed to work for them.

但如果你看看过去几十年的经济表现，你知道，很多中西部的人会说，因为自由贸易，我失业了，对吧？所以我的生活质量在下降。而如果你看看中国，你会发现他们实际上并没有真正的自由贸易。 对于美国企业来说，想在中国销售产品并不容易。但如果你是一家中国企业，想在美国销售产品，却很容易。 正如你所看到的，很多东西在美国都是中国制造的。在过去的几十年里，中国取得了巨大的发展，创造了数以百万计的工作岗位，使数亿人脱离了贫困。所以很明显，这种他们并未真正实施的自由贸易模式，似乎对他们很有效。

And so I think a lot of people are questioning the dogma that people have been taught in school. You know, maybe that's, that's not the whole story. Or maybe that's just not true. Now what Trump is saying in his free trade policy is that he wants to use tariffs as a negotiating tool to get businesses to build in America. So the US is the largest consumer market in the world, right? We are the client. And so the client has power. The Chinese, the Europeans, they want to sell to American consumers. In fact, for many of them, that's their business model. Now, if you're the client, you have bargaining power. And so what Trump would do is, as he's saying, is that, Hey, you want to sell the American consumers no problem, but you have to build factories in America, create jobs, and then you can have access to US consumer market. And if you don't do that, we're just going to put huge tariffs on you so that you can access US markets. And so that's his strategy. It's not so much that he just, you know, wants to wall off the US from the world, is that he wants to trade deficit in the US to close.

所以我觉得很多人开始质疑在学校里学到的一些教条。也许那些并不是整个事实，甚至可能不是真的。现在，特朗普在他的自由贸易政策中表示，他想用关税作为谈判工具，促使企业在美国建厂。美国是世界上最大的消费市场，对吧？我们就是客户，所以客户有力量。中国人、欧洲人，他们都想把产品卖给美国消费者。实际上，这对他们中的许多人来说是他们的商业模式。如果你是客户，那你就有谈判能力。因此，特朗普的做法是：嘿，你想把产品卖给美国消费者，那没问题，但你必须在美国建厂，创造就业机会，然后你才能进入美国市场。如果你不这样做，我们就会对你征收高额关税，从而限制你进入美国市场。这就是他的策略。他并不是想把美国与世界隔绝，而是想缩小美国的贸易赤字。

For example, the US buys much, much more stuff from your land than it sells to them, much, much, much, much, much more stuff from China than it sells to them. So he wants this to be a bit more equal either. Well, the US can sell more goods to China and or, of course, these Chinese companies, European companies, build factories in the US. And I think that's probably going to work because the US obviously has a market people wants to access. And of course, other countries are not doing so well.

例如，美国从你们国家购买的东西远远多于它向你们国家出售的东西,从中国购买的东西比向中国出售的东西要多得多。因此，他希望这一点能够更加平衡一些。美国可以向中国出售更多的商品，或者当然这些中国公司、欧洲公司可以在美国建厂。我认为这可能会奏效，因为美国显然有一个大家想要进入的市场，而其他一些国家的情况不是很好。

And to be clear, people have been doing this for a few decades. Remember, like the US used to be very angry at Japan for exporting tons of stuff there. And now Japan builds lots of factories in the US manufacturing cars and so forth. But that also has implications on currencies and global growth. So part of the dollar strength we talked about earlier seems to be that the market is becoming increasingly aware of the possibility of higher tariffs against, say, Euroland in China.

需要说明的是，人们已经这样做了好几十年。记得以前美国曾对日本大量向美国出口商品感到非常愤怒。而现在，日本在美国建立了许多制造工厂，比如生产汽车等等。但这也对货币和全球经济增长产生了影响。我们之前谈到的美元强势部分可能是因为市场越来越意识到针对比如欧元区和中国设置更高关税的可能性。

Now, if the market, if if that happens, then you can expect economic growth to be worse in your land, more rate cuts and a weaker Euro currency. So again, this will be a shock to global growth in the longer run. Maybe maybe we do actually rewire the global trade system, such that more things are made in America, but it will be it will first be a shock. And before we see any medium or longer term results. Now, the last thing that I want to talk about is this really interesting discussion I heard on a macro musings about Argentina.

现在，如果市场变化确实发生，那么你可以预期你所在国家的经济增长会变得更差，可能会有更多利率下调，欧元也会变弱。因此，从长远来看，这将对全球增长造成冲击。也许我们真的会重新调整全球贸易体系，让更多东西在美国制造，但最初这将是一个冲击，在看到任何中期或长期结果之前都是如此。最后，我想谈谈我在一次关于阿根廷的宏观经济讨论中听到的一个非常有趣的话题。

Now, many of you may not know, but in the beginning of the 20th century, Argentina was actually a very wealthy country. Things were going really well for them. And Argentina has tremendous amounts of land, rich and natural resources. And so everyone thought that Argentina would be, you know, future rich country. But that didn't really happen. In fact, if you look at this chart from the professors, from the professors paper, you'll see that over the past few decades, Argentina has had tremendous amounts of stacklation.

现在，可能很多人不知道，但在20世纪初，阿根廷实际上是一个非常富裕的国家。当时情况很好。阿根廷拥有大量的土地和丰富的自然资源。因此，大家都认为阿根廷将会成为一个未来的富国。但实际上，这并没有发生。事实上，如果你查看教授论文中的这张图表，你会发现，过去几十年来，阿根廷经历了大量的滞胀。

So GDP growth per capita basis, very negative inflation tremendously high. In fact, the cycle, Argentina is comparable to places like Zimbabwe. Now, what seemed to have happened over the past century is that you increasingly have politicians who are short term in their thinking. So what they'll do is they'll go to power, they'll try to buy votes, they'll try to spend a whole lot of money to get elected and then, you know, continue to do so. Now, in order to get inflation and so forth under control, you kind of needed to have less spending or maybe tighter monetary policy. But that was all something that came at an economic cost that people did not want to pay.

因此，以人均GDP增长来看，通货膨胀极其严重。事实上，阿根廷的经济周期与津巴布韦等地相似。 在过去的一个世纪里，情况似乎是，越来越多的政客短视。他们上台后会通过花钱买选票，为了当选而大量花钱，之后也继续这样做。为了控制通货膨胀等问题，需要减少开支或者采取更严格的货币政策。然而，这一切都伴随着经济代价，而人们不愿意承担这样的代价。

And so you have this culture where there's increasingly, I guess short termism. And then again, you also have the erosion of things like the rule of law, independence of monetary policy that just led to basically a century of poor growth and high inflation. So that kind of reminded me of some of the things that I'm seeing in the US, but actually before we get to that. So the professor actually made some interesting observations in this case about dollarization. First, he notes that, you know, in Argentina, when you have to buy a real property, you know, you actually already pay in dollars. And in fact, because of the high inflation, a lot of people keep their savings in dollars.

于是，你会发现这样一种文化，越来越重视短期利益。同时，也出现了一些现象，比如法治的削弱和货币政策独立性的丧失，这基本上导致了一个世纪的经济增长缓慢和高通胀。这让我想起了一些我在美国看到的现象，不过在谈到这个之前，教授在关于美元化的现象上提出了一些有趣的观点。首先，他指出，在阿根廷，如果你要购买房地产，你实际上是用美元支付的。事实上，由于高通胀，很多人把存款保存在美元中。

Now dollars not in a bank account, but in currency. So interesting fact that in the US, over, there's over two trillion dollars worth of currency. And the most common building omniscient is actually not 20s or 10s, which is what we see in everyday life, but actually hundreds. And there's some interesting work from the University, from the Chicago Fed, that the bulk of currency in terms of value is actually held abroad. Now in Argentina, the professor notes that, you know, when you're thinking about liquid assets, the grass majority of liquid access is actually in dollars, but it's not in a bank, it's locked away in safe deposit boxes or under the mattress or something like that.

现在美元不是存放在银行账户中，而是以现金的形式存在。有个有趣的事实是，在美国，现金总额超过两万亿美元。最常见的钞票实际上不是我们日常生活中常见的20美元或10美元，而是100美元钞票。芝加哥联邦储备银行和大学的一些研究表明，大部分现金的价值实际上是在国外持有的。在阿根廷，那里的教授指出，在考虑流动资产时，大部分流动资产实际上是美元，但这些美元并没有存入银行，而是被锁在保险箱里或者放在床垫下之类的地方。

This is because in the early 2000s, when people actually did keep money dollars in banks, the government basically took it, and forcibly, forcibly converted it. So in order to be able to get inflation under control, the professor's point is that we have to somehow control the government to make sure that the government behaves in ways that are long-term good and not just short-term opportunism. In order to do that, we have to be able to bind the government's power to spend.

这是因为在2000年代初，当人们确实把美元存入银行时，政府基本上把它拿走了，并强行将其转换成其他形式。为了控制通货膨胀，教授指出，我们必须设法控制政府，确保政府的行为是为了长远利益，而不仅仅是短期的机会主义。为此，我们需要限制政府的支出权力。

And the way that he's thinking is through dollarization, again, you country, foreign country, can't print dollars. And so that's a way to make sure that the government will behave at least a little bit more responsibly. And if you look at other countries who did this, let's say Ecuador or El Salvador, it seemed to be able to get inflation, at least improve it significantly. Now, to be clear, the governments in those countries have at times wanted to be able to de-utilize so that they can have more power, maybe to spend more money to help in their elections and so forth.

他的想法是通过美元化来实现，外国政府无法自行印制美元。这是一种确保政府至少在某种程度上更负责任的方式。如果你看其他实行美元化的国家，比如厄瓜多尔或萨尔瓦多，他们似乎在控制通货膨胀方面有了显著改善。但需要明确的是，这些国家的政府有时希望取消美元化，以便获得更多的权力，比如在选举中花费更多的钱等。

But it seems like the people were in part able to resist it. And so from his viewpoint, it seems that the most important way is being able to have these kind of commitment mechanisms so that politicians cannot misbehave. Now, the newly elected president over there, President Millet, has done a good job in getting inflation under control. There's this new graph from Bloomberg. You can see that inflation is now three and a half percent, but I would say three and a half percent on a monthly level, not annual. Monthly inflation has gone down to 3.5 percent. Analyze that, you still get a very, very big number. So things are improving over there when it comes to inflation.

看来民众在某种程度上能够抵抗这一问题。从他的观点来看，最重要的方法是建立这些承诺机制，以防止政客行为不当。现在，那边新当选的总统米莱特在控制通货膨胀方面做得很好。彭博社的最新图表显示，通货膨胀率现在是3.5%。但我指的是每月3.5%，而不是每年的。月度通胀率已经降到了3.5%。如果仔细分析，年度通胀率仍然是个很大的数字。不过，就通货膨胀而言，情况正在改善。

Now then that kind of brings me back to our recent election. So again, you're looking at the case of many emerging countries. The economic situation is largely downstream from their political situation. So when I see, say, President Trump going to Las Vegas and telling everyone that it will for me and I won't tax tips, vote for me, I'll cut your taxes, or say, President Vice President Harris saying that, well, for me, and I'll give you money to buy houses, I'll forgive your student loans and so forth, now it seems like that's increasingly like the politics that you would see in many emerging markets, where politicians behave opportunistically, trying to buy votes, get elected without regard to the longer term consequences.

这让我想起了我们最近的选举。类似于许多新兴国家的情况，经济状况在很大程度上受到政治局势的影响。比如，当我看到特朗普总统去拉斯维加斯向大家承诺投票给他，他就不会对小费征税，会为大家减税，或者副总统哈里斯承诺投票给她，她会给你钱买房子，会免除你的学生贷款等，这听起来越来越像是许多新兴市场的政治现象。在这些市场中，政客表现得很机会主义，只想着买票和当选，而不考虑长远的后果。

Now I think of the economy as downstream to politics. So we are increasingly politically, I think, moving towards a world where we are basically becoming open the door to a stackflation. And I think that's becoming increasingly apparent in markets as well. Looking at the price of gold, it's just surging upwards. Part of it could be geopolitical risk. We don't know when Israel retaliates against Iran. Looks like it'll happen anytime. But I think that something to be aware of. And I think that the economy is downstream from politics and the politics is becoming increasingly stackflationary.

现在我认为经济受到政治的影响。我们越来越多地向一个基本上为停滞性通货膨胀敞开大门的世界迈进。我认为，这在市场上也变得越来越明显。看看金价，它正在迅速上涨。这部分可能是因为地缘政治风险。我们不知道以色列什么时候会对伊朗进行报复，看起来随时都有可能发生。我觉得这是需要注意的。我认为经济是受到政治影响的，而政治正变得越来越具有停滞性通货膨胀的特征。

All right, so that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in and remember to like and subscribe.

好的，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢大家的收看，别忘了点赞和订阅。