Ep 58. Checklist For Going Beyond the 10K
发布时间 2018-08-22 22:42:00 来源
摘要
Going Beyond the 10k Checklist (good order to follow. If not durable, we should drop it) • Overview – Give an overview on the business – what is the business, what units make it up, what products do the business have, who are the customers, where do they operate geographically, recent events (spinoffs, the stocks down 50%, why are we looking at this?) who’s their biggest customer, who’s their biggest supplier, what are their biggest product categories (or units, where is rev coming from)• Durability – is the product durable? Have the companies always existed? Have there been changes and challenges before? What’s it based on? Why is this going to continue in the future? Is this a fad? • Moat (does the company have a moat, and what would it be, EX from HBB- Do they outsource it to China, can they outsource it to China? Can other people replicate this easily?) competitive advantage- Where does the moat come from? – high switching costs, patents, contracts, network effects, shelve space, brand, economies of scale – logistics – sales per customer, location location location, regulatory, high barriers to entry, technical skill – reputation, Apple can’t trust a company that’s a startup, intellectual property - owns something that’s intangible, databases, credit records, sports rights, knowledge that others don’t have • Quality (basically talk about ROC, how do they get that return on capital? Break it down, where does it come from? Do they have a higher retention rate? Where is the quality weak? Geoff always asked for customer retention rate, can you always find someplace where there are reviews by customers? Can you get anything that’s ranked in the industry? Like customer service, awards, customer satisfaction surveys, Glassdoor for company culture, need to read between the lines on Glassdoor, look at short interest vs. float, and read short thesis, high price or low price, customer reviews, what do individuals think of the products, which brand would you trust the most? If it comes back a mix then it’s probably the cheapest, how much r&d are they spending as a % of sales and in general, where are they spending this r&d, read Phil Fishers 15-point checklist for quality and growth• Capital Allocation – History of dividends, stock buybacks, stock issuance, CARG in # of shares outstanding, see how management is compensated in the proxy (options, restricted stock, bonus – what are the targets that make up the bonus? ROE, ROC, market cap, etc., how much does management own of the stock? And how significant is that in regard to their salary? What did they say they were going to do in the past? What do they do with FCF historically, can get from transcripts as well, people on the board that we recognize, how much FCF compared to marketcap, could they buy it back? Is there enough float and is the stock liquid enough, did the company ever pay special dividends? Does the company ever acquire things? $MNRO- is their business growth through acquisitions? What type of prices do they pay? Stock or cash• Value – what’s the PE, EV/EBITDA and how does that compare to other companies? Which competitor is better? Why would a company be more expensive or cheaper? Use 5 peers? EX - Is GM cheaper than Ford and why would that make sense? Talk about what management is guiding. Relative value vs. past and competitors, was there ever an offer that was refused or that fell apart? What would an LBO look like? Do they do LBO’s on companies like this? What prices do acquisitions happen in the industry or did peers pay? If looking at Kroger what did AMZN pay for whole foods, etc.• Growth – break down growth. Let’s say they can grow 5% a year, how much is SSS, how much is price increase, how many active users, how much time might they be spending on it, are the ad expenses going up or down, break it all down by geography, are they going to grow in Mexico a lot but not the US, etc.? can they gain market share each year? Compare it to something else tha
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