Charles Payne Show September 16, 2024

Everyone's got an opinion on the size of this rate cut former New York Fed president for instance bill Dudley He now wants to see a 50 basis point cut me while Senator Elizabeth Warren is demanding that the Fed cut by 75 basis points Let's bring in monetary macro comm CIO Joseph Wong and Joe. Let me start with sending a war And you know listen she's always making the you know always pounding the Fed we know this But it does get to a fundamental question. Who does the Fed work for are they working for Wall Street or are they working for Main Street? Well first off. Thanks for having me. I think that's a really good question now when I look at the Fed's actions particularly how they Interpret their mandate. I have to walk away with the sense that they're working for Wall Street Why is that well? Let's look at their inflation mandate for example now. How are they interpreting that well? They can let equity prices go to the moon. They can let housing prices go to the moon Basically everything that the rich have can go to the moon, but what about everyone else Main Street who earns their Words are living through wages now the moment we see wage growth accelerate a little bit Let's say three or four percent Well, the Fed jumps into action and tries to do everything they can to stop that and as a worker I would imagine that has to look like maybe things are a bit rigged not in your favor.

每个人对这次利率削减的幅度都有自己的看法。比如，前纽约联储主席比尔·杜德利现在希望看到50个基点的降息，而参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦要求美联储降息75个基点。让我们邀请货币宏观公司CIO Joseph Wong 来谈谈。Joseph，首先让我们从沃伦参议员的意见开始。你知道的，她总是强烈批评美联储，我们对此并不陌生。但这确实引出了一个根本性问题：美联储到底在为谁工作？是为华尔街，还是为普通大众的“主街”？ 首先，谢谢邀请我来。我认为这是一个非常好的问题。当我观察美联储的行动，特别是他们如何解读自己的使命时，我不得不得出这样的结论：他们是在为华尔街工作。为什么这么说呢？让我们看看他们对通胀的解读。例如，他们允许股票价格和房价飞涨，基本上富人拥有的一切都可以飙升。但对于那些通过工资谋生的普通大众来说呢？一旦我们看到工资增长稍有加速，比如达到3%或4%，美联储就会立刻采取行动，竭尽全力去遏制这种增长。作为一名工人，我会认为这看起来确实有点对自己不利。

Now, let's not forget that over the recent times We've seen the Fed move heaven and earth to save the banking sector first in 2008 Of course jumping in giving the banks huge bailouts and of course most recently when we had that regional bank panic So, you know, I think the Fed means well But it seems like the outcome of their actions has has always been to the benefit of Wall Street rather than Main Street No, it was interesting. I was reading you know you said 50 basis point would support us offline But you also said a signal, you know that that there's this lag effect also maybe acknowledging that it does exist Yeah, so I think the 50 basis point cut seems like it was so we're really in a really interesting place where the market is In sure whether the Fed reduced 25 or 50 now. Sorry, Senator Warren, but the Fed is definitely not going to do 75 Now the way that I look at this is that if the Fed does go and do aggressive rate cuts on the surface That'll look like it's helping the economy that I'll look like it's supporting the markets But there's something else the market isn't focused on and that is the impact these aggressive rate cuts will have on the US dollar Now right now the US dollar is under a lot of depreciation or pressure because we have a very large fiscal deficit If you look at the IMF report the US stands out among all other developed countries Having a projected fiscal deficit about 6% for the foreseeable future for all other developed countries It's about 2% so that's a lot of downward pressure on the dollar So far that downward pressure has kept been kept at bay by high rates now if the Fed goes and cuts 58 and cuts even more later on There's going to be a lot of dollar depreciation now. That's going to trigger a couple things first I think that's going to be upward pressure on inflation as commodity prices go up But more importantly over the past few years a lot of foreigners have bought us equities us fixed income and so forth and Foreign holdings of us equities are basically at all-time highs now when the dollars begins to depreciate those foreigners are going to start losing money On the currency side and they're probably going to sell so that Again carry trade below if we saw in early August that could be just the beginning of something else if the dollar Because continues to depreciate so I think these great cuts that were let me jump in there Joe because I got 30 seconds, right? You know these big investors big traders are saying that the only game in town is the yen, right? You know this sort of this JPY trade everyone's jumping on it Is it is it in part because the Japan has to you know at some point? Maybe the high rates or or is it because of what you just described the inherent weakness in the US dollar that might get worse.

好的，我们不要忘记，在最近的时间里，我们看到美联储竭尽全力首先拯救银行业。2008年，美联储采取了巨额救助措施，最近在地方银行恐慌时也是如此。所以，我认为美联储的出发点是好的，但结果似乎总是让华尔街而非普通大众受益。 非常有趣的是，我最近读到你提到将支持50个基点离线，但你也提到有滞后效应，也许承认确实有这种效应存在。所以我认为，削减50个基点似乎是合理的。我们现在处于一个很有意思的位置，市场不确定美联储是会减25个还是50个基点。对不起，沃伦参议员，但美联储绝对不会减75个基点。 我认为，如果美联储真的进行激进的降息，表面上看这似乎是在帮助经济，支持市场。但市场没有关注到的是，这些激进降息对美元的影响。目前美元正面临很大的贬值压力，因为我们有很大的财政赤字。如果你看国际货币基金组织的报告，美国在所有发达国家中特别突出，预计的财政赤字约为未来一段时间内的6%，而其他发达国家大约是2%。所以这是对美元很大的下行压力。到目前为止，高利率保持住了这种下行压力。如果美联储继续减息50个基点，并在未来进一步减息，美元将大幅贬值。 这将引发几个问题。首先，我认为这会导致通货膨胀压力的上升，因为商品价格会上涨。但更重要的是，过去几年中，很多外国人购买了美国股票和固定收益产品，外国持有的美国股票几乎达到了历史最高水平。当美元开始贬值时，这些外国投资者将在货币方面遭受损失，可能会开始抛售。这种情况，我们在八月初已经看到了一部分，如果美元继续贬值，这可能只是个开始。 我觉得这些利率削减让…让我插一句，乔，我只有30秒时间了。这些大投资者和大交易员说唯一的策略就是围绕日元交易，大家都在炒日元。这是否部分因为日本的高利率，或者是因为你所描述的美元固有的弱点而可能会变得更糟？

Yeah, I think so birth it's the Fed Forecast of the cut rates aggressively but contrary to all other developed markets and true banks the Bank of Japan is forecast to actually high Decrates so one country is cutting rates other countries raising rates and so that are you strongly in favor of the Japanese yen Which is why we've seen the yen appreciate pretty significantly actually by 10% in just three months And so that looks like something that will probably continue if we do get the big Fed cuts that the market is expecting All righty Joe. Hey, I always appreciate these conversations. Thank you very much.

是的，我认为如此。美联储预计将大幅降息，但与其他所有发达市场和真正的银行相反，日本央行预计实际上会提高利率。一个国家在降息，而其他国家在加息，所以这使得日本的日元受到强烈关注。这就是为什么我们看到日元在短短三个月内实际升值了约10%。如果市场真的如预期那样迎来美联储的大幅降息，这种情况可能会继续发展。 好的，乔。我总是很感谢这些对话。非常感谢你。