Markets Weekly September 14, 2024
发布时间 2024-09-14 16:31:49 来源
摘要
federalreserve #marketsanalysis Gold Mooning The Draghi Plan Other Commodities Imploding 00:00 - Intro 1:23 - Gold Mooning ...
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中英文字稿 
Hello my friends, today is September 14th and this is Markets Weekly. So this past week was a pretty good weekend markets. We saw the S&P 500 basically leap higher. Now not too long ago, things were looking pretty dicey, but it looks like the S&P 500 found support at the 100 day moving average and went straight up. Now are we going to go on to new all-time highs or are we going to triple top? I don't know, we'll find out soon, but I continue to be very cautious until after the November election.
你好，朋友们，今天是9月14日，欢迎收看《市场周报》。过去这一周市场表现相当不错。我们看到标普500指数几乎直线上涨。不久前情况还相当不稳定，但现在看起来标普500在100日均线处找到了支撑，然后一路上升。接下来我们能否创下历史新高，还是会出现三重顶？我不知道，但我们很快就会见分晓。不过，在11月的选举结束之前，我会继续保持谨慎态度。
Now today I want to talk about three things. First, what jumped out to me last week was gold. And we saw gold basically mooning and making new all-time highs. Let's talk about what could be behind that surge. Secondly, now Mario Draghi released a newly authored report on European competitors, last week and it's been in the news a lot. Let's talk about what Mario is recommending and also why basically nothing will change. Okay, the last thing that I want to talk about is a commodity prices other than gold. Now while gold has been doing very well, if you look at the commodity complex, prices of oil, base metals have basically been imploding for months. Let's talk about what could be behind that.
今天我想谈三件事。首先，上周引起我注意的是黄金。我们看到黄金基本上在暴涨，并创下了历史新高。我们来讨论一下这次飙升背后的原因。其次，马里奥·德拉吉上周发布了一份关于欧洲竞争对手的新报告，这在新闻中引起了广泛关注。我们来谈谈马里奥的建议，以及为什么基本上什么都不会改变。最后，我想谈谈除了黄金以外的商品价格。尽管黄金表现非常好，但如果你看一下商品整体情况，石油和基本金属的价格已经连续几个月在暴跌。我们来讨论一下这背后的原因。
Alright, starting with gold. Now look at this chart of gold prices. It looks like it's going to the moon and it looks like it's going higher at an accelerating rate. Now remember, when we talk about gold, everyone looks at gold through a different lens. Now some people think of gold as an inflation hedge and they will point to the hotter than expected CPI as a catalyst for higher gold prices. But I will also note that when CPI was printing at 8% year over year, gold was not doing very well. Another common lens to look at gold is through the lens of monetary policy. Now we are in the midst of a global rate cutting cycle that could accelerate significantly. Now we had the ECB cut rates again the past week, Bank of Canada has cut rates three times and most importantly, the Fed is going to cut rates this coming week.
好吧，我们先从黄金开始。现在看这张黄金价格图表。它看起来像是在飞涨，并且似乎在加速上涨。现在请记住，当我们谈论黄金时，每个人都从不同的角度来看待黄金。一些人认为黄金是对抗通胀的工具，他们会把高于预期的消费者价格指数（CPI）视为推高金价的催化剂。但我要指出，当CPI每年以8%的速度增长时，黄金表现得并不好。另一种看待黄金的常见角度是通过货币政策的视角。现在我们正处于全球降息周期中，而且这个周期可能会显著加速。上周，欧洲央行再次降息，加拿大央行已经降息三次，而最重要的是，美联储将在下周降息。
25 basis points are 50. It's so far, it looks like a coin toss. Now the market is actually pricing in a pretty aggressive path of rate cuts though. Now going forward, other central banks like Swiss National Bank and so forth are also going to be cutting rates. So basically all the central banks in the world are in rate cutting mode, maybe by a lot and so gold looks very responding to that and going higher. Now another common lens to look at gold is through the lens of geopolitics. Now what we've noticed the past few months is that when there's geopolitical conflict, for example tensions in the Middle East, gold gets a pretty good bid. Now this past week there has also been pretty notable escalations on the Russia-Ukraine front.
25个基点等于50。这么远来看，这就像是抛硬币猜输赢。现在市场实际上定价了相当激进的降息路径。展望未来，像瑞士国家银行等其他央行也将降息。所以基本上，世界上所有的央行都在降息模式，可能降幅还不小，因此黄金对此反应很明显，价格在上涨。另一个常见的看待黄金的视角是通过地缘政治的视角。我们注意到，过去几个月里，当出现地缘政治冲突时，比如中东地区的紧张局势，黄金的买盘会很不错。而在过去一周内，俄乌前线的紧张局势也有明显升级。
Now there are reports from Politico suggesting that the White House is authorizing Ukraine to use Western provided long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia. Now in response to this, immediately President Putin came out and said that if Western missiles strike deep into Russia, we're going to think of Russia as being at war with NATO. Now that is obviously pretty notable escalation, but it just marks the latest in a series of escalations we've seen over the past two years. Now remember earlier in the conflict the White House was saying that we would never send tanks to Ukraine. Then they sent tanks to Ukraine. Then it was never, we would never send fighter jets to Ukraine and then they sent fighter jets to Ukraine. Then it's whenever they send missiles to Ukraine, then they sent missiles to Ukraine.
根据Politico的报道，目前白宫正在授权乌克兰使用西方提供的远程导弹，对俄罗斯进行深度打击。对此，普京总统立即回应说，如果西方导弹深度打击俄罗斯，俄罗斯将视此为与北约处于战争状态。这显然是一个相当显著的升级，但只是过去两年来一系列升级中的最新一次。回想一下，冲突早期白宫曾表示我们绝不会向乌克兰提供坦克，后来他们却提供了坦克。之后又说绝不会向乌克兰提供战斗机，然后他们又提供了战斗机。接着是说绝不会向乌克兰提供导弹，然后他们也提供了导弹。
But they could only strike certain parts of Russia and now they think now it seems like even that last red line is being crossed. So there's been a steady stream of escalations on the Ukraine front, so it's no surprise a gold is sniffing this out. Now we don't hear about this a lot in the news, but it doesn't seem like geopolitical tensions are boiling over. So that's of course another impetus for gold to rise. And of course you also have these CTA advisors who basically trade on the basis of momentum, buying things that go up and selling things that go down. And with gold consistently rising you're going to have a lot of people who just rush in to buy momentum.
但是他们只能打击到俄罗斯的特定部分，而现在看来，甚至最后的底线也被突破了。因此，在乌克兰前线一直有持续的升级，所以黄金预见到这一点并不令人惊讶。现在我们在新闻中听到这些的次数不多，但地缘政治紧张局势似乎并没有爆发。这当然是黄金上涨的另一个推动力。当然，你还有那些根据趋势进行交易的CTA顾问，他们会买入上涨的东西，卖出下跌的东西。随着黄金持续上涨，这些人中会有很多人因为势头而急于买入黄金。
And so I think a lot of factors explain the gold rise and they look like they're going to continue. So I guess we'll see if gold continues to surge in the coming weeks. Now the second thing that I want to talk about is the recently released Draghi Report. Now Mario Draghi, former president of the ECB has been busy and released the report the past week on European competitiveness.
所以，我认为很多因素解释了黄金的上涨，而且这些因素看起来会继续存在。所以我猜我们将在接下来的几周里看到黄金是否会继续上涨。现在，我想谈的第二件事是最近发布的德拉吉报告。前欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉最近非常忙碌，上周发布了一份关于欧洲竞争力的报告。
Now I think it's helpful to have some little bit of context to see why he's concerned about this. So here's a chart of GDP per capita on a purchasing parity basis, so adjusted for currency of the US and the EU. Now the US has always been on a per capita basis, not always for the past few decades, a wealthier country than the EU. But the gap between the US and the EU has steadily widened over the past few decades. So the living standards in the US have been increasing at a faster rate than that of the EU.
现在我觉得有必要提供一些背景信息来说明他为何对此感到担忧。这里有一张基于购买力平价调整后的美国和欧盟人均GDP的图表。多年来，美国在每个人的人均财富方面一直比欧盟更富有。但在过去几十年里，美国和欧盟之间的差距逐渐扩大。因此，美国的生活水平增长速度比欧盟更快。
Now Mario Draghi is looking at this and thinks that this is due to the difference in productivity between the US and the EU. Now what is productivity? Productivity is basically being able to produce more output with the same inputs. For example, if you were producing 10 widgets after 8 hours of work and then after being more productive, you can produce 20 widgets with 8 hours of work than you are being more productive. That means more goods and services are produced by you and your country.
现在马里奥·德拉吉正在看这个问题，并认为这是由于美国和欧盟之间生产率的差异造成的。那么，什么是生产率呢？生产率基本上是指在相同的投入下能够生产更多的产出。例如，如果你原来需要8个小时生产10个小部件，而在提高生产率之后，你可以在8个小时内生产20个小部件，这就表示你的生产率提高了。这意味着你和你的国家生产了更多的商品和服务。
And so on a material basis, your living standards rise. Now Mario thinks that the difference between the US and EU productivity is largely due to technology. The US we had this big tech boom in the 1990s and the US was able to take advantage of neurotechnologies and improve their productivity. It seems like we are at the cusp of another technology revolution with AI and maybe the US pulls further ahead.
因此，在物质基础上，你的生活水平提高了。现在，马里奥认为美国和欧盟生产率差异主要是由于技术原因。美国在1990年代经历了一次大型科技繁荣期，美国利用神经技术提升了生产率。看起来我们正处在另一场科技革命的边缘，这次是人工智能领域，美国可能会进一步领先。
Now why is the US better technology than Europe? Now to be clear, Europe is actually a leader in many technologies as well. But when you look at their technological leadership, they seem to be focusing more on green technology. Stuff like renewables and carbon stuff like that. Whereas I guess what people conventionally think of as high technology, say AI, cloud computing, semiconductors, Internet of things, things like that, the US tends to be more advanced.
为什么美国的科技比欧洲更先进？首先要明确的是，欧洲在许多技术领域其实也是领导者。但是，当你仔细观察他们的技术领导力时，会发现他们更多地集中在绿色技术上，比如可再生能源和碳相关的技术。而传统上人们认为的高科技领域，比如人工智能、云计算、半导体和物联网等，美国则更为先进。
Now when you look at something like cloud computing, on a market cap basis, the difference is actually pretty stark. Or basically all the leading cloud computing companies are in the US. So why, another reason why that the US could be leading is not just emphasis on these tech technologies, which tend to be more productivity enhancing, but also there's a lot more funding involved.
现在当你看云计算这样的领域，从市值的角度来看，差异其实非常明显。几乎所有领先的云计算公司都在美国。所以，另一个美国可能领先的原因不仅仅是因为他们重视这些提升生产力的技术，还因为有更多的资金投入。
So the US, the EU does have really good technology companies, but oftentimes then they then move to the US where they can get more funding and support. Now in the US venture capital is much more prominent part of the capital markets. So if you are a startup, it's easier to get funding from the US where of course failure for startups is also not as much penalized. So the US seems to have a lot of structural advantages when it comes to technology.
所以美国和欧盟确实有一些非常优秀的科技公司，但这些公司常常会搬到美国，因为在那里能获得更多的资金和支持。在美国，风险投资在资本市场中占有重要地位，所以如果你是一个初创公司，在美国会更容易获得资金支持。当然，在美国，初创公司的失败也不会受到太多惩罚。因此，美国在科技领域似乎有许多结构性优势。
And I would also note that I think on a cultural aspect, the US seems to be much more open to new technologies. Amazon for example, a child of the 1990s tech boom is everywhere in the US and very commonly in the US. If you want something, you order it on Amazon where you can get a low price and it can have a delivered to your house, sometimes within hours, whereas in Europe, technologies like Amazon are not adopted as much.
我还想指出，从文化角度来看，我认为美国对新技术更加开放。举个例子，亚马逊是20世纪90年代科技热潮的产物，在美国随处可见，非常普遍。如果你想买什么东西，可以在亚马逊上下单，价格便宜，有时甚至几小时内就能送到你家。而在欧洲，像亚马逊这样的技术却没有被广泛采用。
Now the Amazon is in Europe and competitors are there, but a lot of times there's a lot more resistance where local people would say, make a point to not order from Amazon, but buy locally in an effort to support local industries. So there's that cultural aspect there. But in the US, of course, people don't do that. And so brick and mortar companies basically go bankrupt. However, those brick and mortar companies then get rebuildings, get repurposed for other things. Their employees find new jobs and also new businesses are born where there's a lot of people who go and can sell directly on Amazon, be it dropshippers or people who have their own business.
现在，亚马逊进军欧洲，竞争对手也在那里，但是很多时候，当地人更抗拒，他们会特意避免在亚马逊上购物，而是选择在本地购买，以支持本地产业。所以这里有一个文化层面的因素存在。但是在美国，人们不会这样做，结果实体店公司基本上都会破产。不过，这些破产的实体店公司随后会被重建或重新用途。它们的员工找到新工作，同时也诞生了许多新的企业，有很多人选择直接在亚马逊上销售商品，无论是代发货者还是拥有自己业务的人。
So basically the structure of the economy in the US is a lot more dynamic, which at the end of the day results in lower prices for consumers. Opportunities for up and coming businesses at the expense of incumbent businesses. And yes, that is sad, but you can see on the aggregate, people tend to benefit when you can have change. Now another thing Mario points out is that energy prices in the EU are a lot higher than the US. As we all know, Europe is highly dependent upon imported gas from Russia.
总的来说，美国的经济结构更加动态，最终导致消费者支付的价格较低。新兴企业有更多的机会，虽然这可能会影响现有企业。但总体上看，当你允许变化发生时，人们往往会从中受益。另一个马里奥指出的问题是，欧洲的能源价格比美国高得多。众所周知，欧洲在很大程度上依赖从俄罗斯进口天然气。
Now European leadership tends to focus a lot more on clean energy solutions. And by that they mean solar and wind rather than say nuclear, which in some countries seems to be in the process of being decommissioned. Now green energy, low carbon, great, but also a lot more expensive when compared to something like natural gas. So when you look at energy prices between the US and the EU, energy is a lot cheaper in the US and that's a huge advantage when it comes to things like manufacturing or even very high tech stuff like data centers. Now Mario's solution to this gap between say technology and high energy costs is more investment. He wants the EU to spend 800 billion euros a year to support European growth. Which of course is a great idea except as we all know that will never ha
现在，欧洲领导层更多地关注清洁能源解决方案。所谓的清洁能源，他们主要指的是太阳能和风能，而不是核能。某些国家似乎正在逐步退役核电站。绿能、低碳当然很好，但与天然气相比，这些能源的成本也高得多。所以，当你比较美欧之间的能源价格时，美国的能源价格要便宜得多，而这在制造业或高科技领域如数据中心方面，是一个巨大的优势。Mario关于如何缩小技术与高能源成本之间差距的解决方案是增加投资。他希望欧盟每年花费8000亿欧元来支持欧洲的增长。当然，这确实是一个很好的想法，但我们都知道这永远不会实现。
ppen. Now in the US when the government wants to spend more money, they just basically have a magic money tree print more treasuries and for some of whatever reason the market is very hungry for US treasuries no matter how much they print. In the EU there is no joint debt market so you don't really have European wide treasuries. And when you try to have EU wide debt, you have countries like Germany very clearly oppose it. They don't want to be liable for say the spending of Portugal, where Italy and so forth. So if the EU were to raise more money to try to have more investments in technology, they were going to have to r
现在在美国，当政府想要花更多钱时，他们基本上会使用一种“魔法钱树”——印制更多国债。出于某种原因，不管印了多少，市场对美国国债总是非常渴求。在欧盟，则不存在统一的债务市场，因此你实际上没有全欧范围内的国债。而当试图发起全欧债务时，像德国这样的国家会明确反对。他们不想对比如葡萄牙、意大利等国家的支出负责。因此，如果欧盟想筹集更多资金去投资科技，他们将不得不。。。
aise taxes, have say EU wide income tax or something like that. Now that is also very difficult to implement. The EU composed of many members, a lot of political consensus needs to be built so it's very difficult. So at the end of this day this proposal which articulates the problems of Europe very clearly that everyone agrees of proposes sensible solutions that can never be implemented. And so it seems like this productivity gap, this living standard gap that we see between the Europe and the US and actually many other countries as well is probably going to continue for the foreseeable future until it cannot and then maybe we'll have big change.
增加税收，比如像全欧范围内的所得税之类的。这是非常难以实施的。欧盟由多个成员国组成，需要达成大量的政治共识，因此这非常困难。所以最终，这个提案虽然清晰地阐述了欧洲面临的问题，并且提出了合理的解决方案，但这些方案却难以实施。因此，欧洲与美国以及其他许多国家之间的生产力差距和生活水平差距可能会在可预见的未来继续存在，直到某种变革的发生。
The last thing I want to talk about is the commodity markets. Now we talked about gold, mooning, but other commodities haven't been doing as well. When you look at commodities like oil, like base metals, honestly it looks like they're imploding. Now if you're looking at commodities as a signal for say global recession, well then you have to be paying attention. Low commodity prices usually suggest weak global demand, which in turn suggests global recession. But we also have to be having a little bit more nuance. Lower prices could be due to weaker demand, but it could also be due to increase in supply. Looking at oil, I think according to the recent IEA oil report, it looks like oil decline in prices largely due to China. Growth in oi
最后，我想谈谈商品市场的问题。我们之前提到过黄金的强劲表现，但其他商品的表现并不如人意。当你看看石油、基本金属等商品时，老实说，它们看起来像是在崩溃。如果你把商品价格作为全球经济衰退的一个信号，那么你就必须关注这些变化。低商品价格通常意味着全球需求疲软，这反过来又暗示全球经济可能正在衰退。不过，我们也需要更加细致地分析。价格下降可能是因为需求减弱，但也可能是因为供应增加。就石油而言，根据最近的国际能源署（IEA）报告，石油价格的下降很大程度上是由于中国的原因。
l in China has been very disappointing and that's resulting in weaker oil prices. And in addition, there seems to be many offshore oil prices that are offshore oil projects that are coming online next year. That seems to promise increases in supply, so you have both demand and supply things impacting oil right now. But the weakness in Chinese demand is real and that seems to be spilling into other commodities like iron ore and copper. Now China is the largest consumer of iron ore. As we all know, China is the workshop of the world that they import raw materials, manufacture cool stuff and then sell it to the rest of the world. Now the Chinese economy, as we've been discussi
在中国，经济表现一直非常令人失望，这导致了油价走弱。此外，明年似乎有许多海上油田项目将投入使用，这意味着供应量会增加，所以目前油价受到供需两方面的影响。但中国需求疲软是确凿无疑的，这似乎也波及到了其他大宗商品，比如铁矿石和铜。众所周知，中国是最大的铁矿石消费国。作为世界的制造基地，中国进口原材料，制造各种产品，然后再卖给全球。正如我们所讨论的，中国经济目前并不乐观。
ng the past few months, has not been doing well in large part because of the deflating of a ginormous property bubble. A lot of GDP growth in China over the past few decades has been investments in real estate. Basically China has been building more and more new buildings, bridges infrastructure and so forth, and that's been driving a lot of growth. But now those real estate investments have been doing as well. Real estate prices have been declining and so property developers are not building as much new construction and households who own real estate are seeing their net worth shrink and are less than client spent. So that all suggests weaker economy, less demand for
过去几个月，中国的经济表现不佳，很大程度上是由于一个巨大的房地产泡沫破灭。过去几十年里，中国的GDP增长很大一部分来自于房地产投资。基本上，中国一直在不断兴建新的建筑、桥梁和其他基础设施，这推动了大量的经济增长。但是现在，这些房地产投资表现不如以前顺利。房地产价格下跌，导致开发商减少了新建筑的建设，拥有房地产的家庭也看到他们的净资产缩水，支出的意愿也降低了。这一切都表明经济疲软，需求减少。
commodities. Now I think it's also important to note though that China globally speaking is more of a source of supply than a source of demand. And so when the Chinese economy is not doing well, yes they will import fewer goods and services from say the US. But to begin with though, they weren't a very big part of demand for American companies. The flip side is more true where American consumers are a big source of demand for Chinese goods and services. And so as Chinese, the Chinese economy slows down, that suggests lower import prices for the US, which you kind of see and lower commodity prices, which of course also is an import price as well. So in a sense, it's having disinflation and a pressures on US inflation. On a market based sig
商品。我认为还需要注意的是，从全球来看，中国更多是一个供应来源，而不是需求来源。因此，当中国经济表现不佳时，是的，他们会减少从美国进口商品和服务。但首先，他们对美国公司的需求并不是很大。反过来说，美国消费者对中国商品和服务的需求更大。所以，当中国经济放缓时，这意味着美国的进口价格会下降，这是可以看到的，商品价格也会降低，这当然也是一种进口价格。因此，从某种意义上说，这对美国的通货膨胀产生了抑制压力。
nal, you can also look at the Chinese government bonds were the 10 year Chinese government bonds. The yields are declining pretty notably. So it does seem like things are not going well over there. Now President Xi has been quite adamant that he doesn't want to do a lot of fiscal stimulus. He thinks that's not good. He doesn't want to just print money and make things go away like the West does. But it's also possible he could change his mind and things become more dire.
你也可以看看中国政府债券，特别是10年期中国政府债券。它们的收益率正在显著下降，所以看起来那边的情况不太好。现在，习近平主席非常坚决地表示不希望进行大规模财政刺激。他认为这样做不好，不想像西方那样只是印钱解决问题。但如果情况变得更加严重，他也有可能会改变主意。
Now, US looking at US CPI, we can see that headline CPI has been pretty subdued because that includes things like commodity prices, whereas core CPI has been more elevated. So going forward, this likely suggests because of lower commodity prices, that headline CPI is going to be pretty benign for the coming months. Alright, so that's all prepared. This week is an FOMC week.
现在，看美国的消费者价格指数（CPI），我们可以看到整体CPI一直比较平稳，因为其中包括了商品价格，而核心CPI则较高。因此展望未来，由于商品价格较低，整体CPI在未来几个月可能会比较温和。好了，这就是全部准备内容。本周是联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议周。
So I'll be back to give you my FOMC debrief. Now today we're in a pretty interesting place because the market is pricing in a 50% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut. As we all know, the Fed does not like to surprise the markets, so this is a pretty unusual situation. My best guess is that the FOMC actually does not know what kind of consensus it can build. And so it's preparing the market for either 25 or 50. So we'll find out soon what actually happens.
好的，我回来后会给你讲述一下联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的情况。现在我们处在一个非常有趣的阶段，因为市场预期有50%的几率进行25个基点的降息，还有50%的几率进行50个基点的降息。众所周知，美联储不喜欢让市场感到意外，所以这是一种非常罕见的情况。我的猜测是，FOMC可能还不清楚能达成什么样的共识，因此它正在为市场准备最低25个基点或最高50个基点的降息。所以我们很快就会知道实际的结果。
Now remember to like and subscribe. And if you're interested in hearing my latest thoughts, check out my blog at FedGuide.com. This week I will rank the case as to why aggressive rate cuts are actually bearish equities. And if you're interested in learning more about markets, check out my online courses at centralbanking101.com. Talk to you all soon.
记得点赞和订阅哦。如果你想了解我的最新想法，可以访问我的博客：FedGuide.com。本周我将分析为什么激进降息实际上对股票市场是不利的。如果你对市场感兴趣，可以看看我在 centralbanking101.com 上的在线课程。我们很快再见。