Generation 2 4680 Tested // Results & Analysis

Welcome back everyone, I'm Jordan Geisigee and this is The Limiting Factor. In the last video, I showed that the energy density of the Generation 2 4680 has increased by 11.5% from the Generation 1 4680 and is now highly competitive with the best third-party alternatives that Tesla uses in their vehicles. The question is, how did they achieve such a large increase in energy density? How does that align with my past predictions? And what does that mean for future energy density increases? To answer that question, today I'm going to walk you through the chemistry and design of the Cyber Cell thanks to a teardown and testing by UC San Diego. Before we begin, a special thanks to my Patreon supporters, YouTube members and Twitter subscribers, as well as RebellionAir.com. They specialize in helping investors manage concentrated positions. RebellionAir can help with covered calls, risk management and creating a money master plan from your financial first principles. For this video, there's a number of additional people to thank here. It takes a community effort to make a video like this possible. First, thanks to Monroan Associates for donating the battery cell for the teardown. Without their generosity, the video wouldn't have been possible. Second, thanks to Brian White of Futuraza, who drove the battery cell from the Tesla Owners Club of Michigan Summer meetup all the way to UC San Diego for testing. Third, thanks to Shirley Monk, who organized funding for the teardown as a professor at the University of Chicago and an adjunct professor at UC San Diego. Lastly, thanks to Wei Kung Li and Wei Liang Yao, who tore down the 4680 cell, as well as did the testing to provide the information we're going to look at today.

欢迎回来，大家好，我是Jordan Geisigee，欢迎观看“The Limiting Factor”。在上一个视频中，我展示了第二代4680电池的能量密度相比第一代提升了11.5%，现在非常具有竞争性，与特斯拉在车辆中使用的最好的第三方替代品不相上下。问题是，他们是如何实现如此大幅度的能量密度提升的？这一结果与我之前的预测如何一致？这对未来的能量密度提升又意味着什么？为了回答这些问题，今天我将带大家了解Cyber Cell的化学成分和设计，这要感谢加州大学圣地亚哥分校的拆解和测试。 在开始之前，特别感谢我的Patreon支持者、YouTube会员和Twitter订阅者，以及RebellionAir.com。他们专门帮助投资者管理集中持股头寸，RebellionAir可以帮助提供有保障的期权、风险管理以及根据你的财务第一原则制定资金管理计划。 为了制作这个视频，我还要感谢许多其他人，这是一项社区合作的成果。首先，感谢Monroan Associates捐赠电池单元用于拆解，没有他们的慷慨，这个视频将无法实现。其次，感谢Futuraza的Brian White，他把电池从密歇根特斯拉车主俱乐部夏季聚会一路运送到加州大学圣地亚哥分校进行测试。第三，感谢Shirley Monk，她是芝加哥大学的教授和加州大学圣地亚哥分校的兼职教授，组织了这次拆解的资金。最后，感谢魏珑礼和魏良尧，他们拆解了4680电池，并进行了测试，为我们今天要讨论的信息提供了数据。

To kick things off, two years ago, when I released the results from the testing from the Generation 1 4680 cell, I showed that the thickness of the cell can was roughly double the thickness of a 21 70 cell can. By my back of the napkin math, I estimated that reducing the thickness of the 4680 cell can, from about 0.6 millimeters to 0.3 millimeters to match the 21 70 cell, would increase its energy density by up to 24Wh per kilogram. The Generation 2 4680 cell, as I showed in the 4680 teardown video last month, was around 0.4 millimeters thick as compared to the 0.6 millimeters thick of the Generation 1 4680 cell can, which was a reduction in thickness of 0.2 millimeters. That is only about 2 thirds of the 0.3 millimeters I was hoping for. However, I've since been in contact with James Ma of Kaishan Road. James is based out of China and does comprehensive battery teardown reports. His measurements, which were more thorough, showed that the Generation 2 4680 cell can, listed here as Generation 1.5, had a thickness of 0.35 millimeters. That would put the thickness reduction from the Generation 1 to the Generation 2 4680 cell can, at closer to 0.25 millimeters, or about 83% of the 0.3 millimeters that I suggested two years ago.

为了开始说明，两年前，当我发布第一代4680电池测试结果时，我发现电池外壳的厚度大约是2170电池外壳厚度的两倍。根据我粗略的计算，我估计如果把4680电池外壳的厚度从大约0.6毫米减小到0.3毫米，与2170电池一致的话，它的能量密度将会增加到每千克24瓦时。第二代4680电池，如我在上个月的4680拆解视频中所展示的，其外壳厚度约为0.4毫米，相比于第一代4680外壳的0.6毫米，减少了0.2毫米。虽然这只达到了我希望的0.3毫米减少量的大约三分之二。然而，自那以后，我联系了凯山路的James Ma。他常驻中国，进行全面的电池拆解报告。他的测量更加彻底，显示第二代4680电池（在此称为1.5代）的外壳厚度为0.35毫米。这意味着从第一代到第二代4680电池外壳的厚度减少了大约0.25毫米，接近我两年前所建议的0.3毫米减少量的83%。

83% of 24Wh per kilogram would mean a 20Wh per kilogram increase in energy density. If the Generation 1 4680 was 244Wh per kilogram, that would mean a hypothetical energy density increase to 264Wh per kilogram simply by making the cell can thinner. However, as we saw in the previous video, the measured energy density of the Generation 2 4680 is 272Wh per kilogram, which means there's clearly also an improvement to the chemistry of the battery cell. With that in mind, let's take a look at the cathode and anode chemistry of the Generation 2 4680. In the past two years, I've collaborated with UC San Diego to tear down three 4680 battery cells. The results of each are shown on screen. The first and second cells were both Generation 1 4680 battery cells. And the third cell is of course the Generation 2 4680. The Generation 1 4680 cells were roughly the same in terms of composition. 81% nickel, 12% cobalt, and 7% manganese. This would be loosely classified as an NMC 811 cathode chemistry, corresponding to 80% nickel, 10% manganese, and 10% cobalt. The Generation 2 4680 cell is 91% nickel, 5% cobalt, and 4% manganese, which would be loosely classified as an NMC 955 chemistry, correlating to 90% nickel, 5% manganese, and 5% cobalt.

83%的24Wh每公斤意味着能量密度增加了20Wh每公斤。如果第1代4680电池的能量密度是244Wh每公斤，那么仅通过将电池外壳变薄，理论上的能量密度就能增加到264Wh每公斤。然而，正如我们在之前的视频中看到的，第2代4680电池的实际能量密度测量值为272Wh每公斤，这显然意味着电池化学成分也有改进。考虑到这一点，让我们看看第2代4680电池的正极和负极化学成分。在过去的两年里，我与加州大学圣地亚哥分校合作拆解了三颗4680电池。每个拆解结果都显示在屏幕上。前两颗电池都属于第1代4680电池，第三颗电池当然是第2代4680电池。第1代4680电池在成分上基本相同：81%的镍、12%的钴和7%的锰。这大致可以归类为NMC 811正极化学成分，对应80%的镍、10%的锰和10%的钴。第2代4680电池的成分则是91%的镍、5%的钴和4%的锰，这可大致归类为NMC 955化学成分，对应90%的镍、5%的锰和5%的钴。

There's two significant points about that. First, Tesla's now using an advanced cathode chemistry in the 4680. The higher the nickel content of a lithium ion cathode material, the greater the energy density. That's because, as we can see on screen, for a given voltage, increased nickel content results in increased capacity. But increasing the nickel content also reduces the stability of the cathode, which has solutions but makes high nickel cathodes more difficult to master. NMC 811 type cathode materials, which are 80% nickel, hit the market about 5-6 years ago, but now they're common. NMC 955 type cathode materials, which are 90% nickel, started to hit the market about 2-3 years ago. As far as I'm aware, there's nothing on the market that has a greater percentage of nickel and a lower percentage of cobalt.

这一点有两个重要之处。首先，特斯拉现在在其4680电池中使用了先进的正极材料。锂离子电池正极材料的镍含量越高，其能量密度就越大。这是因为，如屏幕所示，在相同电压下，镍含量增加会导致电池容量增加。但增加镍含量也会降低正极的稳定性，虽然这有解决办法，但高镍正极更难掌握。NMC 811类型的正极材料（含80%镍）大约在5-6年前进入市场，而现在已相当普遍。NMC 955类型的正极材料（含90%镍）大约在2-3年前开始进入市场。据我所知，目前市场上没有镍含量更高且钴含量更低的产品。

The second significant point about the NMC 955 cathode is that it validates a post on X by Joe Techbier. In January of this year, Joe reported that Tesla just finished the process of transitioning to NMC 955, which matches what the analysis from UC San Diego shows. If you don't follow Joe on YouTube or X, I'd recommend it. He's proven to be a reliable source of original information and news in the Tesla community. In the same post, Joe stated that Tesla was also testing an NMC 973 cathode, which they may use in 4680 cells by the end of the year. NMC 973 would likely have a minimal impact on the energy density because it would still be 90% nickel, but it would decrease the cobalt content to about 3%. That type of cathode would put Tesla at the cutting edge of cathode material science and reduce concerns around cobalt mining.

关于NMC 955正极的第二个重要点是，它验证了Joe Techbier在X平台上的一篇帖子。今年一月，Joe报告说，特斯拉刚刚完成了向NMC 955转变的过程，这与加州大学圣地亚哥分校的分析结果相吻合。如果你没关注Joe的YouTube或X账号，我建议你去关注。他已经证明自己是特斯拉社区中可靠的原创信息和新闻来源。在同一篇帖子中，Joe还提到，特斯拉正在测试NMC 973正极，可能会在今年年底前用于4680电池。NMC 973对能量密度的影响可能很小，因为它仍然含有90%的镍，但钴的含量会减少到约3%。这种类型的正极将使特斯拉处于正极材料科学的前沿，并减少对钴矿开采的担忧。

Looking back on track, how much does the NMC 955 cathode increase the energy density of the 4680 cell? In order to get a ballpark estimate, we need to first take a look at the anode chemistry. The slide on screen shows that just like the generation 1-4680, the generation 2-4680 doesn't contain silicon, which is often used to boost the energy density of lithium ion battery cells. Instead, the anode is effectively pure graphite, or to be more accurate, if there is silicon in the 4680, it's below the detectable limit, and so it would be minuscule and have no real impact on energy density. Since the anodes in the generation 1 and generation 2-4680 both use pure graphite, on a weight for weight and volume for volume basis, the energy density of the anode in each battery cell should be nearly identical. That piece of information can be used to guess the energy density of the cathode material. How? Let's start by comparing the thickness of the anode material for each 4680 that UC San Diego has tested.

回顾一下，NMC 955正极材料能让4680电池的能量密度提升多少？要得到一个大致的估算，我们首先需要了解一下负极的化学组成。屏幕上的幻灯片显示，就像第1代4680电池一样，第2代4680电池中也没有使用经常用于提升锂离子电池能量密度的硅。取而代之的是，负极实际是纯石墨，或者更准确地说，即使4680电池中含有硅，其含量也是低于可检测限度的，因此对能量密度没有实质影响。由于第1代和第2代4680电池的负极都使用纯石墨，所以在重量和体积相同的情况下，每个电池单元的负极能量密度应该几乎是相同的。这个信息可以用来推测正极材料的能量密度。怎么推测呢？让我们先比较一下加州大学圣地亚哥分校测试的每种4680电池负极材料的厚度。

Both of the generation 1-4680 cells had a total anode thickness of 250 microns, whereas for the generation 2-4680 it was 240 microns. It's relevant because in a lithium ion battery, the lithium storage capacity of the anode has to roughly match the lithium storage capacity of the cathode. The cathode is where the lithium ions start out. If the cathode contains less lithium than the anode, then there would end up being empty spaces in the anode when it's charged, meaning dead weight and wasted space. If the cathode contains too much lithium, when the battery is charged it would overwhelm the anode and deposit a layer of pure lithium, called lithium plating, which would destroy the battery cell. That means that the generation 2-4680 is using the same anode material as the generation 1-4680, but the thickness of the anode has reduced from 250 microns to 240 microns, or about 4%. The cathode should also see a reduction in thickness of about 4%.

第1代和第2代的4680电池，其阳极厚度分别为250微米和240微米。这一点很重要，因为在锂离子电池中，阳极的锂存储容量必须大致与阴极的锂存储容量相匹配。锂离子最初是存储在阴极中的。如果阴极中的锂含量少于阳极，那么充电时阳极中会出现空隙，导致无效重量和浪费空间。如果阴极中的锂含量过多，那么电池充电时会在阳极上沉积一层纯锂，这被称为锂沉积，会对电池单元造成损害。这意味着第2代4680电池使用了与第1代相同的阳极材料，但阳极厚度从250微米减少到了240微米，约减少了4%。阴极的厚度也应该有大约4%的减少。

But that's not what we see when we look at the cathode. Instead, the thickness of the cathode has gone from 180 microns to 150 microns, which is a reduction in thickness of 17%. That could have occurred in two ways. First, the cathode material may have experienced greater compression or calendaring during the manufacturing process, which reduced its porosity leading to a thinner coating. This is unlikely because I doubt Tesla could further optimize the porosity by another several percent, let alone another 17%. Second, the cathode material is now higher energy density, which we know should be the case because the cathode is now using more nickel. With that in mind, let's assume the thinner cathode in the generation 2-4680 is all due to a higher energy density cathode material, rather than lower porosity. If the cathode of the 4680 should have been 4% thinner based on the anode, but it ended up being 17% thinner, that would mean relative to the generation 1-4680, the cathode in the generation 2-4680 would have an energy density that's roughly 13% greater. Would that mean 13% greater energy density at the cell level? No, because the cathode of a lithium ion battery cell is about 31% of the total weight of the battery cell. So if we multiply 13% by 31%, that's roughly a 4% energy density increase. 4% times the 244 watt-hour per kilogram baseline of the generation 1-4680 is 10 watt-hours per kilogram. If we add that to the 264 watt-hour per kilogram hypothetical cell energy density from the thinner cell can, that would be a total hypothetical energy density of 274 watt-hours per kilogram, which is within 2 watt-hours per kilogram of the energy density that Monroan associates measured. Given that this is all back of the napkin mass and taking into account measurement errors, the hypothetical energy density of 274 watt-hours per kilogram based on the improvements we saw on the teardown and the measured energy density of 272 watt-hours per kilogram are effectively the same. That means the 11.5% energy density increase at the cell level can be fully explained by a thinner cell can and higher energy density cathode material.

但是，当我们观察正极时，发现的情况却并非如此。实际上，正极的厚度从180微米减少到了150微米，厚度减少了17%。这种变化可能有两种原因。首先，正极材料在制造过程中可能经历了更大的压缩或辊压，导致其孔隙率减少，从而使涂层变薄。然而，这种可能性不大，因为我怀疑特斯拉能进一步优化孔隙率几个百分点，更不用说17%了。其次，正极材料的能量密度可能提高了，因为我们知道正极现在使用了更多的镍。既然如此，我们假设第2代4680电池中的较薄正极完全是由于能量密度更高的正极材料，而不是孔隙率降低所致。如果根据负极计算，正极应该变薄4%，但实际却变薄了17%，这意味着相较于第1代4680电池，第2代4680电池的正极能量密度大约高出13%。这是否意味着电池单元层面的能量密度也增加了13%呢？并不是，因为锂离子电池的正极约占电池总重量的31%。所以，如果我们将13%乘以31%，大约是4%的能量密度增加。将4%乘以第1代4680电池244瓦时每公斤的基准，得出10瓦时每公斤。如果再加上由于较薄电池壳假设的264瓦时每公斤的电池能量密度，总假设能量密度将达到274瓦时每公斤，这与Monroan团队测量的能量密度相差不到2瓦时每公斤。考虑到这些都是粗略计算，并且测量存在误差，根据拆解观察到的改进计算的假设能量密度274瓦时每公斤和实际测量的272瓦时每公斤实际上是相同的。这意味着电池单元层面11.5%的能量密度增加可以完全用更薄的电池壳和更高能量密度的正极材料来解释。

Now that we've looked at the energy density, let's look at a few other facets of the generation 2-4680. First, does the generation 2-4680 use a dry process on both the cathode and anode? No, UC San Diego found that once again, just the anode uses a dry manufacturing process, but we already had advice from Tesla to that effect. As I reported last month in the Q2 earnings call, Tesla said that they intend to start mass production of the fully dry 4680 in the fourth quarter. By implication, that means just like the generation 1-4680, any generation 2 cells produced earlier this year would have used the dry process on just the anode. As usual, I'll continue to keep you updated on the 4680 ramp after each earnings call and the significance of any developments. Next up, resistance. UC San Diego wasn't able to test the resistance of the generation 2-4680 because it was damaged from being discharged to .44 volts and therefore wouldn't provide reliable data. However, I expect the resistance in the generation 2-4680 to be lower than the generation 1-4680 for three reasons. First, as I showed in the teardown video, the copper anode foils of the generation 2 cell are welded directly to the bottom lid of the battery cell. That's as opposed to the generation 1 cell where the copper foils are welded to a current collector which in turn was attached to the cell can. That is, there were more interfaces which may have increased to the electronic resistance.

现在我们已经了解了能量密度，让我们来看看2代-4680电池的其他几个方面。首先，2代-4680电池的正极和负极是否都使用干法工艺？不是的，加州大学圣地亚哥分校发现，和之前一样，只有负极使用了干法制造工艺，但我们已经从特斯拉那里得到了相关建议。正如我上个月在第二季度财报电话会议上报道的那样，特斯拉表示，他们打算在第四季度开始大规模生产完全干法制造的4680电池。也就是说，就像1代-4680电池一样，在今年早些时候生产的2代-4680电池只能在负极使用干法工艺。像往常一样，我会在每次财报电话会议后继续为您更新4680电池的进展情况以及任何重要发展的意义。 接下来是电阻问题。加州大学圣地亚哥分校未能测试2代-4680电池的电阻，因为它在放电到0.44伏的过程中受损，因此无法提供可靠数据。然而，我预计2代-4680电池的电阻会比1代-4680电池更低，原因有三点。首先，正如我在拆解视频中所展示的，2代电池的铜负极箔直接焊接在电池底盖上。这不同于1代电池，其中铜箔是焊接到一个电流收集器上的，电流收集器再连接到电池罐上。换句话说，1代电池有更多的接口，这可能增加了电子电阻。

Second, additionally, the aluminum current collector for the cathode in the generation 2 cell is a solid disk rather than slotted like the generation 1-4680 which means more metal which also potentially means lower electronic resistance. With that said, I expect the improvements to resistance from the anode and cathode terminals to have a trivial effect on the total resistance of the battery cell. Why? Because most of the resistance in a battery cell is due to ionic resistance rather than electronic resistance.

第二，此外，第二代电池中的正极集电器是一个实心盘，而不像第一代4680电池那样有槽，这意味着更多的金属，这也可能意味着更低的电子电阻。但即便如此，我预计正极和负极端子电阻的改进对电池总电阻的影响很小。为什么呢？因为电池大部分的电阻来自离子电阻，而不是电子电阻。

That brings us to the third reason why I expect the resistance of the new 4680 to be lower. As I showed earlier, the cathode and anode are thinner. That in turn lowers ionic resistance which can significantly reduce heat generation when the cell is charging and discharging. It won't be a massive improvement but certainly significant which may have an impact on charging speed.

这就引出了我预计新款4680电池电阻更低的第三个原因。正如我之前展示的，正极和负极变得更薄了。这反过来降低了离子电阻，从而显著减少电池在充放电时的热量产生。虽然不会有巨大的改进，但肯定会有显著的效果，这可能会对充电速度产生影响。

On that note, a number of people online have been saying that the charging speed of the cyber truck is terrible. As shown on screen, the charging speed of the cyber truck is roughly middle of the pack when compared to other electric pickup trucks. That is not great but also not terrible. However, I expect the cyber truck and 4680 to achieve faster charging speeds in the future.

说到这个，很多网友表示对 Cybertruck 的充电速度非常不满意。如图所示，与其他电动皮卡相比，Cybertruck 的充电速度大约处于中等水平，不算很好，但也不算太差。不过，我预计未来 Cybertruck 和 4680 电池的充电速度会有所提升。

That's for three reasons. First, earlier this year Tesla said they'll be pushing a software update to increase the charging speed of the cyber truck. As far as I'm aware, that hasn't happened yet and the update is already about three months overdue. But that's par for the course for Tesla software updates. Second, Tesla is working on uncorking the maximum charger output of the V4 Superchargers which would primarily benefit the cyber truck because it has the largest battery pack in Tesla's passenger vehicle fleet and therefore has the greatest capacity to absorb those extra kilowatts. Third, in the longer term, Tesla has a number of options to increase the charging speed of their battery cells from a design and chemistry perspective.

这有三个原因。首先，今年早些时候，特斯拉表示他们将推送一个软件更新，以提高Cybertruck的充电速度。据我所知，这个更新还没有发布，而且已经晚了大约三个月。但对于特斯拉的软件更新来说，这种情况很常见。第二，特斯拉正在努力解锁V4超级充电桩的最大输出功率，这将主要有利于Cybertruck，因为它拥有特斯拉乘用车中最大的电池组，因此可以吸收更多的额外功率。第三，从长期来看，特斯拉在通过设计和化学方面提高电池充电速度上有多种选择。

On that note, let's move on to the final topic of the video, which is the potential technical improvements and performance we might expect from the 4680 in the future. In past videos, I showed this image where I suggested that the generation 24680 would hit 268Wh per kilogram and the generation 34680 would have a slightly better design and include a higher nickel cathode. Installing in an energy density of 280Wh per kilogram, it looks like Tesla rolled the improved cathode I predicted for generation 3 into generation 2 and achieved an energy density of 272Wh per kilogram.

说到这里，我们来讨论视频的最后一个话题，那就是未来我们可能期望的4680技术改进和性能提升。在之前的视频中，我展示了一张图片，提到第二代4680的能量密度将达到每公斤268瓦时，而第三代4680会有稍微更好的设计，并使用含镍更高的正极材料，使其能量密度达到每公斤280瓦时。看来特斯拉将我预测的第三代改进正极材料提早应用到了第二代，成功实现了每公斤272瓦时的能量密度。

There may still be some room to improve the cell design and the cathode, which could take it closer to my estimate of 280Wh per kilogram, but let's assume 272Wh per kilogram is the current maximum energy density without resorting to added silicon in the anode, asymmetric lamination of the electrodes, or lithium doping. Even at 272Wh per kilogram, adding an industry standard amount of silicon to the battery cell could still potentially bring the 4680 up to 300Wh per kilogram.

电池设计和正极可能还有改进空间，或许可以接近我估计的每公斤280瓦时的能量密度，但让我们假设目前的最大能量密度是每公斤272瓦时，这是在不添加硅到负极、不对电极进行不对称层压或者不进行锂掺杂的情况下得到的。即便是每公斤272瓦时，往电池单体中加入行业标准量的硅，仍然有可能将4680电池提高到每公斤300瓦时。

That's because when I made this table, I was purposely conservative. That means my estimates of 315Wh per kilogram for asymmetric lamination and 330Wh per kilogram for lithium doping also still stand. The question is, what kind of timeframes could we be looking at for those energy density increases? It's impossible to say without inside knowledge, but here's my thoughts. For increased silicon, I'd say about 1 to 2 years.

那是因为在制作这个表格时，我特意保守了。因此，我对不对称层压电池每公斤315Wh和掺锂电池每公斤330Wh的估算依然有效。问题是，这些能量密度的提升可能需要多长时间？没有内部信息无法确定，但这是我的看法。如果是提升硅含量，大概需要1到2年时间。

I'd only caution that I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla started with small amounts of silicon and slowly increased over time. So we may not see the leap to 300Wh per kilogram in one generation. As a side benefit, increasing the silicon content of the anode would likely increase the charge rate of the 4680. If you'd like to know why, check out my video on how silicon affects charging speed.

我只是想提醒一下，我不会感到意外，如果特斯拉一开始使用少量硅，然后逐步增加。因此，我们可能不会在一代产品中就看到能量密度跃升到每千克300瓦时。作为一个附带好处，增加负极的硅含量可能会提升4680电池的充电速度。如果你想了解为什么，可以看看我关于硅如何影响充电速度的视频。

Although the predictions in the video haven't panned out yet, the technical reasoning is solid. As for asymmetric lamination, the time frame is a total wildcard. However, in the post where Joe Techmyer accurately reported the NMC955 cathode, he also said that Tesla was already in the process of trialing an asymmetric electrode. That could mean a rollout as soon as the generation 3.4680. Or it could mean that Tesla is in a very early trial phase, and still working out the fundamentals of asymmetric lamination, which could mean it's still years away.

尽管视频中的预测还没成为现实，但技术上的推理是有道理的。至于非对称层压，时间框架是个未知数。不过，在Joe Techmyer准确报道了NMC955正极的帖子中，他也提到特斯拉已经在试验非对称电极。这可能意味着在第3代4680电池时就会推出，也可能意味着特斯拉还处在非常早期的试验阶段，还在解决非对称层压的基本问题，这可能意味着还需要几年时间。

Asymmetric lamination can be used to both increase energy density and increase charging speed. So if Tesla does implement that technology, it's really a product decision as to how they split the benefits. If you'd like to know more about that, I've linked a video above. Lithium doping is a technology that I don't expect anytime soon because it involves working with pure lithium metal, which is volatile. But I'm hoping to see it this side of 2030. Once again, if you'd like to know more about that, watch my Tesla Lithium Doping Patent video, which is linked above.

不对称叠层技术可以同时提高能量密度和充电速度。因此，如果特斯拉采用这种技术，如何分配这些优势将是一个产品决策。如果你想了解更多，我在上面链接了一个视频。锂掺杂技术我暂时不期望会很快见到，因为它需要使用纯锂金属，而纯锂金属非常不稳定。但我希望在2030年之前能看到它。再次提醒，如果你想了解更多，可以观看我上面链接的特斯拉锂掺杂专利视频。

In summary, thanks to a thinner cell can and higher energy density cathode material, the Tesla 4680 is now on par with the best high nickel battery cells on the market. Tesla has a lot of options to continue to improve the battery cell. With that said, it's best to keep our eye on the prize, which is mass production of the fully dry 4680, which is expected to start next quarter. If Tesla continues at their current pace of improvement, in terms of both cost and performance, they could gain a significant lead on the entire battery industry in as little as the next two years. It all depends on what other manufacturers unveil in the next couple of years. As usual, I'll keep you updated on major developments in my regular videos, and after each Tesla quarterly earnings call.

总的来说，得益于更薄的电池壳和更高能量密度的正极材料，特斯拉的4680电池现在已经与市场上最好的高镍电池不相上下。特斯拉有很多选项来继续改进电池。话虽如此，我们最好将注意力集中在完全干式4680电池的量产上，预计将于下个季度开始。如果特斯拉按目前的改进速度在成本和性能方面继续前进，他们可能在未来两年内大幅领先整个电池行业。这一切都取决于其他制造商在未来几年内推出的产品。像往常一样，我会在定期的视频和每次特斯拉季度财报电话会后为你更新主要进展。

Before I close the video, I'd like to say thanks again to all the people who made this video possible, including Rebellionair, Sandy Monroe, Brian White, Shirley Mung, Wei Kang Li, and Wei Liang Yao. If you enjoyed this video, please consider supporting the channel by using the links in the description. Also consider following me on X. I often use X as a testbed for sharing ideas, and X subscribers like my Patreon supporters generally get access to my videos a week early.

在结束视频之前，我想再次感谢所有帮助制作这段视频的人，包括Rebellionair、Sandy Monroe、Brian White、Shirley Mung、Wei Kang Li和Wei Liang Yao。如果你喜欢这个视频，请考虑通过视频描述中的链接支持这个频道。同时也可以考虑关注我的X账号。我经常在X平台上测试分享一些想法，X的订阅者和我的Patreon支持者一样，一般能够提前一周观看到我的视频。

On that note, a special thanks to my YouTube members, X subscribers, and all the other patrons listed in the credits. I appreciate all of your support, and thanks for tuning in.

对此，我要特别感谢我的YouTube会员、X订阅者以及所有在片尾鸣谢中的支持者们。我非常感谢你们的支持，也谢谢你们的观看。