Warren Buffett breaks down how he would invest if he had to start again with $1 million - YouTube

Towards the end of 2018, you mentioned that you guarantee you could make a 50% annual return if you had to start again with under $1 million. The question is, if tomorrow you woke up in the body of a. Your body. What do you mean? Your body. But that's fine. And your name was now Warren Alakat. And you had some money to invest on a full-time basis. What method or method would you use to achieve that return? Would it involve flipping through 20,000 pages of Moody's manual or similar publications or finding, you know, two-fungsickabats? Or would it be hunting for great companies at a fair price as Mr. Munger would? Or would it be a combination of both with opportunity costs serving as the final arbiter, or which method to use, given that your investing opportunity has now brought in significantly? Thank you, Captain Cap. Good question. I'm glad you came.

2018年年底时，你提到过如果你重新开始并且资金少于100万美元，你可以保证每年获得50%的回报。那么这里有个问题，如果明天你醒来，发现自己变成了Warren Alakat，而且你有一些资金可以全职投入投资中，你会用什么方法来实现这个回报？你会通过翻阅2万页的《穆迪手册》或类似刊物找到信息，还是像芒格先生那样寻找以合理价格收购的优质公司？或者你会将两者结合，以机会成本作为最终决定因素，选择使用哪种方法，考虑到你现在的投资机会已经大大增加？谢谢你，Captain Cap。很好的问题。我很高兴你能来。

The answer would be, in my particular case, it would be going through the 20,000 pages. And since we were talking about railroads, you know, I went through the Moody's Transportation Manual a couple of times. That was 1,500 or 2,000 pages or probably 1,500 pages. And I found all kinds of interesting things when I was 50, or when I was 20 or 21. And I don't imagine there's anybody here that knows about the Green Bay and Western Railroad Company. But there were hundreds and hundreds of railroad companies, and I like to read about every one of them.

我的回答是，就我个人而言，我会浏览那20000页的内容。既然我们在谈论铁路，你知道吗，我浏览过几次穆迪交通手册，那本书有1500到2000页，大概1500页吧。当我五十岁或二十几岁的时候，我发现了各种有趣的东西。我不认为这里有人知道Green Bay and Western Railroad Company，但那时候有成百上千的铁路公司，我喜欢阅读关于每一家公司的资料。

The Green Bay and Western, in those days, everybody had a nickname for railroads. I mean, that was just what Northern Pacific was the nipper. And, you know, the Phoebe Snow was one of them in the East that used to go up the Cornell. And the Green Bay and Western was known as Grab Baggy Didn't Walk and GBNW. And they had a bond that was actually the common stock. And they had a common stock that was actually a bond. And, you know, that could lead to unusual things.

在那些日子里，大家都会给铁路公司起绰号。比如，北太平洋铁路公司被称为“尼普”，在东部还有一条叫做“菲比·斯诺”的铁路，它曾经通往康奈尔。而绿湾和西方铁路被称为“抓包不走”和GBNW。他们有一种债券实际上就是普通股票，而他们的普通股票实际上是一种债券。这种情况可能会导致一些不同寻常的事情发生。

But they wouldn't lead to unusual things that would work for you when many millions of dollars. But if you collected a whole bunch of those, which I set out to do, and actually that's what impressed Charlie when I first met him, because I knew all the details of all these little companies on the West Coast that he thought I would never have heard of. But I knew about the Los Angeles Athletic Club or whatever it might be. And he thought he was the only one to do about that. And that became an instant point of connection.

但是，这些公司不会带来上百万美元的意外财富。不过，如果你收集了很多这样的公司，就像我当初打算做的那样，其实这也正是我第一次见到查理时让他感到惊讶的原因，因为我知道所有这些西海岸小公司的细节，他觉得我不可能知道这些公司。但是我知道洛杉矶运动俱乐部之类的公司。这成了我们瞬间的共同点。

So to answer your question, I would, I don't know what the equivalent of Moody's manuals or anything would be now. But I would find out everything about everything small. And I would find something with a million dollars you could earn 50% a year. But you have to be in love with the subject. You can't just be in love with the money. You really got to just find it.

为了解答你的问题，我会先去寻找所有相关信息。虽然我不知道现在是否有类似穆迪手册的东西，但我会研究所有细小的细节。我会找到一个可以赚取百分之五十年收益的百万美元投资。然而，你必须对这个领域充满热情，而不仅仅是追求金钱。你真的需要全身心地投入寻找机会。

I could, you know, essentially, like, you know, people find other things in other fields because they just love looking for the biologists looks for something because they want to find something they, and it's built into, I don't know, the human brain works that much. I don't think anybody understands too well how the human brain works. But there's different people that just find it exciting to expand their knowledge in a given area. We've, you know, I know great British players, I know, great chess players, actually, the spar off came to all-mon metmoses B. I've had the luck of meeting a lot of people that are unbelievably smart in their own arena and do some unbelievably dumb things in other areas.

我觉得吧，基本上，像，人们在其他领域发现了其他东西，因为他们就是喜欢寻找。生物学家寻找某样东西，是因为他们想找到它。这好像是人类大脑的某种天性。可能没有人真正明白大脑是怎么运作的。但确实有一些人，在特定的领域里扩展知识让他们觉得很兴奋。我认识一些很优秀的英国棋手，我也认识一些很厉害的国际象棋棋手。实际上，卡斯帕罗夫（知名棋手）也来过奥尔蒙大师班（假设的名字）。我很幸运，遇到过很多在各自领域异常聪明的人，但他们在其他领域却会做出一些非常愚蠢的事情。

So all I know is the human brain is complicated. But it does its best when you find out what your brain is really suited for, and then you just pound the hell out from that point, and that's what I would be doing if I had a small amount of money and I wanted to make 50% a year. But I also wanted to just play the game, and you can't do it if you really, if you don't find the game of interest, whether it's bridge or whether, you know, whatever it may be, chess, or the stage finding securities that are undervalued.

所以，我只知道人脑非常复杂。但当你发现自己脑子真正擅长什么时，它会表现得最好。然后你尽全力从这个点出发，如果我手里只有一点钱，又想每年赚50%，我就会这么做。但我也想享受这个过程。如果你对这个游戏不感兴趣，无论是桥牌、象棋，还是发现被低估的证券，你是做不到的。

But it sounds to me like you're on the right track. I mean, anybody that'll come all the way to the annual meeting has got something in their mind other than bridge or chess. So I'm glad you came and come again next year.

但在我听来，你似乎走在正确的道路上。我的意思是，任何人愿意一直来到这个年会，脑子里肯定想的不只是桥牌或国际象棋。所以我很高兴你来了，希望明年再见到你。