In conversation with Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024
发布时间 2024-09-10 04:05:51 来源
摘要
(0:00) Besties intro Elon Musk! (4:01) The Battle of Free Speech (13:03) Potential government efficiency agency (30:23) SpaceX ...
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中英文字稿
After buying Twitter for $44 billion, Musk's time as CEO has been a whirlwind. Shares of Musk's other major company, Tesla, have plummeted more than 30% since he took over Twitter. As is often the case, his next move is unclear. I go as far as hitting that he's demonstrating some erratic behavior. Go fuck yourself. Is that clear? I hope it is.
在以440亿美元买下推特后,马斯克作为CEO的时间充满了风波。自他接手推特以来,他另外一家主要公司特斯拉的股价已经暴跌了30%以上。正如往常一样,他的下一步举动尚不明确。我甚至可以说他表现出了一些反常行为。去他妈的。明白了吗?希望你明白。
Hey, Bob. Sure, in the audience. Elon Musk's cooperation and or relationships with other countries is worthy of being looked at. The Biden administration has just announced its second investigation into Elon Musk in less than a week. Both the Tesla and SpaceX is a product roadmap that they're on and that whether Elon is in the building or not is not going to impact the plan that they have.
嘿,Bob。是的,我在观众席。埃隆·马斯克与其他国家的合作或关系值得关注。拜登政府在不到一周的时间里刚刚宣布了对埃隆·马斯克的第二次调查。无论埃隆是否在公司,特斯拉和SpaceX的产品路线图都不会受到影响。
People said he'd never get the rocket in space. He did that. People said the roads were never going to get delivered. He did that. People said he'd never get 100 of them done. He's got 200 done. As an entrepreneur, you can't listen to the noise. And you certainly can't listen to losers who have never accomplished anything with their life who are obsessing about you. Please.
人们说他永远不可能把火箭送上天。他做到了。人们说那些道路永远无法完工。他也做到了。人们说他永远不可能完成100个项目。他完成了200个。作为一名企业家,你不能听那些闲言碎语,更不能听那些一事无成、却对你指指点点的失败者的意见。拜托。
We're out there among the stars. And we're a multi-planet species across many planets and many star systems. This is a great future. And that's what we should strive for. To our customer support at your service. Nearly every VC I speak with, every CEO, is looking to Elon's behavior and saying that's a model for how you can challenge your team to achieve the impossible in an impossibly difficult environment. And you can see those griffins on your left hand screen rotating and turning to guide the booster and there's that landing gun. Landing gun just begun. And you can see the water's along. And we have blast guns. And we have these levels going. And he's just a visionary like I've never seen.
我们正处于群星之间。我们是一个跨越多个行星和星系的多行星物种。这是一个伟大的未来,我们应该为之努力。我们的客户支持在为您服务。我几乎与每一个我交谈过的风投和每一个 CEO 都认为,埃隆的行为模式是一种榜样,展示了如何在极其困难的环境中挑战团队,实现不可能的目标。您可以在左侧屏幕上看到那些狮鹫在旋转和转动,引导助推器,还有着陆枪。着陆枪刚刚开始。你还能看到水,以及爆破枪,还有这些等级正在增加。他是一个前所未见的有远见的人。
How on earth would you bet against him? Elon seems to be on track to be not only the world's richest man, but the world's first trillionaire. Elon basically has had over the last 10 or 15 years an incredible amount of challenges that he's overcome. Probably had to deal with stuff that most of us would have broken under. And he just fought through it. And the guy just basically bended all the haters until he crushed their souls. And I just think that that's incredible. MUSIC CHEERING
你怎么可能会对他下注赌输呢?埃隆看起来不仅有望成为世界上最富有的人,甚至有可能成为全球首位万亿富翁。过去的10到15年里,埃隆遇到了无数的挑战,克服了许多常人难以承受的困难。他坚持到底,把那些质疑他的人都打败了。说实话,这真的太了不起了。背景音乐中隐约传来欢呼声。
The greatest answer for all of us. Oh, thank you. This is the generation of Elon Musk. Yes. CHEERING Oh, my God. Here I'm going to take this. All right. Oh, thank you. Ah. See what it is. Thanks for taking the time. LAUGHTER How are you doing, brother? You keeping busy? Yeah. I mean. LAUGHTER It's rarely a slow week. LAUGHTER I mean, in the world as well. Yeah. I mean, any given week, it just seems like the things getting out of here. It's definitely a simulation. We've agreed on this at this point. I mean, if we are in some alien Netflix series, I think the ratings are high. Yes. Thanks for having me.
这是对我们所有人来说最好的答案。哦,谢谢你。 这是埃隆·马斯克的时代。 是的。欢呼声。天哪。我要拿这个。 好的。哦,谢谢你。啊。看看这是什么。谢谢你抽时间来。大笑。兄弟,你最近怎么样? 还忙吗? 是的。大笑。几乎很少有空闲的星期。 大笑。而且整个世界也是一样。 是的。我意思是,任何一周似乎都事件不断。 这绝对是一个模拟世界。我们都已经达成共识。我意思是,如果我们在某个外星人的Netflix剧集中,我觉得收视率一定很高。 是的。谢谢邀请我来。
How are the freedom of speech wars going? This is a. You've been at war for two years now. Yes. The price of freedom of speech is not cheap, isn't it? I think it's like 44 billion something. Just. It's probably not a million. Give her. Give her take a billion. Yeah, around and around. Yeah. It's pretty netty. There is this weird movement to quell free speech kind of around the world. And this is something we should be very concerned about. You have to ask, why was the First Amendment a high priority? It was like no one. One. It's because people came from countries where if you spoke freely, you would be imprisoned or killed. And they were like, well, we would like to not have that here. Because that was terrible. And actually, you know, there's a lot of places in the world right now. If you're critical of the government, you get imprisoned or killed. Right. And we would like to not have that.
言论自由的争斗现在如何了?这是一场——你们已经打了两年了,是吗?是的,言论自由的代价不低,不是吗?我觉得大概是440亿左右吧。大概,也许不是上百万。给她,给她一个亿的浮动。对,差不多这样。真的很可怕。全球现在有一种压制言论自由的奇怪趋势。这是我们应该非常关心的问题。你得问,为什么第一修正案被视为优先事项?因为人们来自那些如果你说话自由就会被监禁或杀害的国家。他们当时想,我们不希望这在这里发生。因为那样太糟糕了。而实际上,现在世界上还有很多地方,如果你批评政府,就会被监禁或杀害。对,我们不希望这样的事情发生。
Are you concerned about that? Yeah. I suspect this is a receptive audience to that message. Yeah. APPLAUSE You know, I think we always thought that the West was the exception to that. That we knew there were authoritarian places around the world, but we thought that in the West we'd have freedom of speech. And we've seen, like you said, it seems like a global movement. In Britain, you've got teenagers being put in prison for memes. It's like you like to Facebook posts. Throw them in the prison. Yeah.
你对此感到担忧吗? 是的。 我怀疑这正中这里观众的下怀。 是的。(掌声)你知道吗,我一直以为西方是个例外。我们知道世界上有专制的地方,但我们以为在西方我们会有言论自由。但正如你所说的,似乎有一种全球性的运动。在英国,有青少年因为发布表情包而被关进监狱。就像你在Facebook上点赞了帖子,就把你扔进监狱一样。是的。
People have got an actual prison for obscure comments on social media. Not even shit posting. It's not even. It's prison media. It's just a problem that's thrown in prison. You've got a problem. I'm like, that's what I'm talking about. I was like, what is the massive crime? That. Povill in France and then of course we got Brazil with Judge Voldemort. That one seems like the one that impacts you the most. What's the latest on that? Well, I guess we are trying to figure out is there some reasonable solution in Brazil? The concern. I want to just make sure that this is framed correctly.
人们因为在社交媒体上发不清楚的评论而进了真正的监狱。甚至不是恶作剧发帖。这甚至不是社交媒体,而是监狱媒体。这只不过是个问题然后就被扔进监狱了。你有个问题。我就说,这就是我在谈的事情。我就像,是什么重大犯罪啊?那。法国的Povill,还有当然我们的巴西有伏地魔法官。那个似乎是对你影响最大的。最新情况是什么?嗯,我猜我们正试图找到在巴西是否有合理的解决方案。这个问题。我只是想确保这被正确地描述。
And funny means aside, the nature of the concern was that at least at X-corp we had the perception that we were being asked to do things that violated Brazilian law. So, obviously we cannot as an American company impose American laws and values on other countries that we wouldn't get very far if we did that. But we do think that if a country's laws are a particular way and we're being asked to. We think we're being asked to break them and be silent about it, then obviously that is no good.
笑话放一边,我们的问题在于,在X公司,我们觉得被要求做一些违反巴西法律的事情。显然,作为一家美国公司,我们不能把美国的法律和价值观强加给其他国家,这样做的话我们也走不远。不过,如果一个国家的法律有明确规定,而我们被要求做一些我们认为是违法的事情,而且还被要求对此保持沉默,那显然是不可接受的。
So, I'm sure it really clear, because sometimes it comes across as Elon's trying to just be crazy, whatever billionaire and demand outrageous things from other countries. And, you know, well that is true. In addition, there are other things that I think are. I think are valid, which is like we obviously can't. I think any given thing that we do at X-corp, we've got to be able to explain in light of day and not feel that it was dishonorable or we did the wrong thing. So, we don't. that was the destination of the concern.
所以,我想这点已经很清楚了,有时人们觉得埃隆只是想充当一个疯狂的亿万富翁,向其他国家提出离谱的要求。确实有这种情况存在。然而,还有一些我认为是合理的考虑。显然,我们在X公司做的每一件事都必须在阳光下能够解释清楚,并且不觉得这是不光彩或错误的行为。因此,我们不会做那些让人担忧的事情。
So, we actually are in discussions with the judicial authorities in Brazil to try to run this to ground. Like what's actually going on? Like if we're being asked to break the law, resilient law, then that's. that obviously should not sit well with the resilient judiciary. And if we're not, when we're mistaken, we'd like to understand how we're mistaken. I think that's a pretty reasonable position. I'm a bit concerned, as your friend, that you're going to go to one of these countries, and I'm going to wake up one day. And then you're going to get arrested and you're going to have to go bail you out or something. This feels very acute.
我们实际上正在与巴西的司法部门讨论,试图搞清楚这个事情到底是怎么回事。比如,如果我们被要求违反巴西的法律,这显然不应该被巴西司法部门接受。而如果我们没有被要求违反法律,只是我们误解了什么,我们也希望弄清楚到底是哪里误会了。我觉得这是个相当合理的立场。作为你的朋友,我有点担心你去这些国家之一,然后某天我就会醒来,发现你被抓了,我得去保释你之类的。这种情况感觉非常紧急。
Yes. I mean, it's not a joke now. Like they're literally saying like, you know, it's not just Biden saying like, we have to look into that guy. Now it's become quite literal. Like this. who was the guy who just wrote the. was it the guardian piece about like. Oh yeah, yeah. There have been three articles in I think in the past three weeks. Robert Reich. But it wasn't just him. Yeah. There's three different articles. Three different articles. It doesn't. that's a trend. Calling for me to be imprisoned in the guardian, you know. Guardian of what? What are they protecting exactly? Guardian of. I don't know. Thoritarianism?
是的。我是说,这现在不是开玩笑了。他们真的在说,不只是拜登说我们得调查那个人。现在这变得相当字面了。像是,刚才是谁写的那个……是《卫报》那篇文章吗?哦,对,对。我想在过去三周里有三篇文章。罗伯特·赖克写的。但不仅仅是他。对,有三篇不同的文章。这已经形成了一种趋势。《卫报》在呼吁把我监禁。保护什么呢?他们到底在保护什么?权威主义的“卫报”吗?
Yeah. Guardian of. yeah. Censorship? Censorship. I mean, but the premise here is that you bought this thing, this online forum, this communication platform, and you're allowing people to use it to express themselves. Therefore, you have to be jailed. I don't understand the logic here. Right. There's. what do you think they're actually afraid of at this point? What's the motivation here? Well, I mean, I think. if somebody's sort of trying to push or false premise on the world, and then that premise can be undermined with public dialogue, then they will be opposed to public dialogue on that premise because they wish that false premise to prevail. Right.
对。守护者。对。审查制度?审查制度。我是说,这个前提是你购买了这个东西,这个在线论坛,这个平台,然后你允许人们在上面表达自己的观点。那么,你就必须被监禁。我不明白这里的逻辑。对。这里的……你认为他们现在到底在害怕什么?他们的动机是什么?嗯,我认为,如果有人试图向世界推销一个虚假前提,然后这个前提可以通过公众对话被动摇,那么他们就会反对关于这个前提的公众对话,因为他们希望这个虚假前提能够占上风。对。
So that's, I think, you know, the issue there is if they don't like the truth, you know, then we want to suppress it. You know, the sort of. what we're trying to do with the X-corp is. I distinguish that from my son, who's also called X. Yes. Right. You have parental goals. Everything's just called X basically. Yes. It's very difficult to send big UAs. The power of the sun.
所以,我认为,问题在于,如果他们不喜欢真相,就会试图压制它。我们在X公司所做的事情是......我要把它和我儿子区分开来,他也被叫做X。是的,没错。你有父母的目标。基本上所有东西都叫X。送大型无人机非常困难。太阳的能量。
Yeah. It's X everything. So, what we're trying to do is simply adhere to the. You know, the law is in a country. So if something is illegal in the United States or if it's illegal in Europe or Brazil or wherever it might be, then we will take it down or we'll suspend the account because we're not there to make the laws. But if speech is not illegal, then what are we doing? Okay. Now we're injecting ourselves in as a sensor and where does it stop and who decides? So. and where does that path lead?
对,是的。这是一切都与X相关。所以,我们要做的只是遵守各个国家的法律。如果某些内容在美国、欧洲、巴西或任何地方是非法的,那么我们会将其移除或暂停账户,因为我们的职责不是制定法律。但是如果言论本身不违法,那我们到底在做什么呢?好吧,这样的话我们就变成了审查者,那么这会有一个尽头吗?谁来决定呢?这个路径将会引向何方呢?
I think it leads to a bad place. So if the people in a country want the laws to be different, they should make the laws different. But otherwise, we're going to obey the law in each jurisdiction. Right. And some of these European laws. That's it. We're not trying to flout the law. We're going to be clear about that. We're trying to adhere to the law. If the laws change, we will change. And if the laws don't change, we won't. We're just literally trying to adhere to the law. It's pretty straightforward.
我认为这会导致不好的结果。所以,如果一个国家的人民希望法律有所不同,他们应该去改变这些法律。但在现有情况下,我们会遵守每个地区的法律。对吧?包括一些欧洲的法律。就这么简单。我们并不是试图违反法律。对此我们会明确说明。我们正在努力遵守法律。如果法律改变了,我们会随之改变。如果法律不变,我们也不会变。我们真的是在尽力遵守法律。这个很简单明了。
Yes. It's very straightforward. And if somebody doesn't think we're not adhering to the law, well, they can file a lawsuit. Bingo. Also very straightforward. Yes. I mean, there are European countries that don't want people to promote Nazi propaganda. Yes. They have some sensitivity to it. Well, it is illegal. It is illegal in those countries. In those countries, if somebody puts that up, you take it down. Yes. But they typically file something and say, do you just have it? Yes. No, in some cases, it is just obviously illegal. You don't need to file a lawsuit for something that's just unequivocally illegal. We can literally read the law. This violates the law. Anyone can see that. Like, you don't need. If somebody is stealing, you don't need. Let me check the law on that. Oh, no, they're stealing. That was not Francisco. Let's go.
是的,这非常简单明了。如果有人认为我们不遵守法律,那么他们可以提起诉讼。对,很简单。另外,我是说,有些欧洲国家不希望人们宣传纳粹言论。是的,他们对此非常敏感。毕竟,在那些国家,宣传纳粹是非法的。在那些国家,如果有人发布这种内容,你就得把它删除。是的,但他们通常会提出某些要求,说你是否有这些内容。是的,但在某些情况下,这显然是非法的。对于那些明确非法的事情,你不需要提起诉讼。我们可以直接读法律,这就违反了法律,任何人都能看出来。不需要。如果有人在偷东西,你也不需要查法律,这很明显,他们在偷东西。那不是Francisco,我们走吧。
So we had JD Vance here this morning. He had a great job. And one of the things is there's this image on acts of like basically like you, Bobby, Trump, and JD are like the Avengers, I guess. And then there's another meme where you're in front of a desk where it says, doge. The Department of Governmental Efficiency. Yes, yes. I posted that one. Tell us about it. I made it using Grock, the Grock image generator. And that posted it. Tell us about the. I printed it to my profile. How do you do it? Well, I mean, I. I think with great difficulty, but you know, look, it's been a long time since there was a serious effort to reduce the size of government and to remove absurd regulations. Yeah. And, you know, last time there was a really concerted effort on that front was Reagan in the early 80s. We're 40 years away from a serious effort to remove, you know, regulations that don't serve the greater good and reduce the size of government. And I think it's just. If we don't do that, then what's happening is that we get regulations and laws accumulating every year until eventually everything's illegal. And that's why we can't get major infrastructure projects done in the United States. Like if you look at the absurdity of the California High-Speed Rail, I think they spent $7 billion and have a 1,600-foot segment that doesn't actually have rail in it. I mean, you're taxed dollars at work. I mean. Yeah, what do we do? It's also expensive, 16-hour feet of concrete, you know? And I mean, I think it's like, you know, I realize sometimes I'm perhaps a little optimistic with schedules, but. You know. I mean, I wouldn't be doing the things I'm doing if I was, you know, not an optimist. So. At the current trend, you know, California High-Speed Rail might finish sometime next century. Maybe. Probably not. We're just going to. We'll have teleportation by that time. Yeah, exactly. They say they. They do everything at that point. So. So. So.
所以今天早上我们有JD·万斯(JD Vance)到这里。他的工作做得很好。顺便提一下,有张图片把你、Bobby、特朗普和JD描绘成复仇者联盟的样子,还有一个搞笑图片显示你在一张写着“狗狗币:政府效率部”的桌子前。是的,是的。我发过那张。我是用Grock,Grock图片生成器做的。然后我就发出来了。告诉我们这事。我把它打印成我的个人资料。你是怎么做到的?嗯,我觉得这挺难的,但是你知道,已经很久没有认真的努力来缩减政府规模和取消荒谬的法规了。是的。你知道,上一次这种认真的努力要追溯到里根(Reagan)在80年代初。我们已经40年没有真正努力去撤除那些没有服务大众利益的法规以及缩减政府规模了。我认为如果我们不这么做,就会出现每年都有新法规和法律积累的情况,最终所有事情都变得非法。这也是为什么美国无法完成重大基础设施项目。如果你看看加州高铁的荒谬情景,他们花了70亿美元,只建了一个1600英尺长的段落,而且还没有铁路。我是说,这是你们交的税在起作用。我们该怎么办?16英尺的混凝土也太贵了。你知道,我有时觉得我在时间表上可能有点过于乐观了。但是如果我是个悲观主义者,我就不会做这些事情了。按照当前趋势,加州高铁可能要下个世纪才能完成。也许吧,可能不会。到那时候我们可能会有瞬间移动。是的,确实如此。他们说那时什么都能做。所以。
I think you really think of, you know, the United States and many countries. It's arguably worse than the EU. It's being like, Gulliver tied down by a million little strings. And like, any one given regulation is not that bad, but you've got a million of them. And. Or millions, actually. And then eventually you just can't get anything done. And this is a massive tax on the consumer, on the people. It's just they don't realize that there's this massive tax in the form of irrational regulations.
我认为你确实明白,美国和许多国家情况是类似的。可以说,这里情况比欧盟还糟糕,就像《格列佛游记》里,格列佛被无数根小绳子捆住一样。单独看某一项法规并不是很糟糕,但当有成千上万条法规时,最终你什么事都做不成。这对消费者和人民来说,是一种巨大的负担,只不过他们没有意识到这些不合理的法规实际上是一种巨大的税收。
I'm going to give you a recent example that, you know, is just insane. Is that SpaceX was fined by the EPA $140,000 for. They claimed dumping potable water on the ground. Drinking water. So. And we're like, this is that star base. And we're like, we're in a tropical thunderstorm region. That stuff comes from the sky all the time. And there was no actual harm done.
我要给你举一个最近的例子,简直让人觉得不可思议。就是SpaceX被环保署罚了14万美元。原因是他们声称SpaceX把饮用水倒在地上喝了。我们当时在星际基地,那里是热带风暴多发地区,那里经常下雨。而且实际上并没有造成任何伤害。
You know, it's just water to cool the launch pad during liftoff. And there's zero harm done. Like, they agree, yes, there's zero harm done. And we're like, okay, so there's no harm done. And you want us to pay $140,000 fine? It's like, yes, because you didn't have a permit. Okay. We didn't know there was a permit needed for zero harm, fresh water being on the ground in a place that where fresh water falls from the sky all the time. Got it. Next to the ocean. Next to the ocean.
你知道的,那只是用水在发射时冷却发射台。而且完全没有造成任何危害。他们也同意,是的,没有任何危害。然后我们说,好吧,那就没有危害。然后他们却要我们支付14万美元的罚款?他们说,是的,因为你们没有许可证。好吧,我们不知道将对地面无害的淡水用于一个经常下雨的地方还需要许可证。明白了。就在海边。就在海边。
Because there's a little bit of water there too. Yeah. I mean, sometimes it rains so much the roads are flooded. So we're like, you know, how does this make any sense? Yeah. And then like, they were like, well, we're not going to process any more of your applications for launch, for Starship launch unless you pay this $140,000. It was ransomed us. And we're like, okay, so we paid $140,000. But it was a. It's like, this is no good.
因为那里也有一点水。是的。我的意思是,有时候雨下得太大,道路都被淹了。所以我们会觉得,这有什么道理呢?是的。然后他们说,如果你们不支付这14万美元,我们就不再处理你们的Starship发射申请了。这感觉像是被勒索了。于是我们就支付了14万美元。但这真让人不爽。
I mean, at this rate, we're never going to get to Mars. I mean, that's the confounding part here is we're acting against our own self-interest. You know, when you look at. We do have to make. We're putting aside fresh water, but hey, you know, the rocket makes a lot of noise. So I'm certain there's some complaints about noise once in a while, but sometimes you want to have a party where you want to make progress and there's a little bit of noise. Therefore, you know, we trade off a little bit of noise for massive progress or even fun. So when did we stop being able to make those trade-offs?
我的意思是,以这种速度,我们永远也无法到达火星。让我困惑的是,我们的行为其实是在对抗自己的利益。你看,我们确实需要做出选择。我们可能会忽略干净的水资源,但火箭确实会发出很大的噪音。我确信偶尔会有人抱怨噪音,但有时候为了进步或者开心,我们需要面对一些噪音的妥协。所以,你知道,我们用一点噪音来换取巨大的进步或乐趣。那么,是什么时候我们开始无法做出这些妥协的呢?
But talk about the difference between California and Texas, where you and I now reside. Texas, you were able to build the Gigafactory. I remember when you got the plot of land. And then it seemed like it was less than two years when you had the party to open it. Yeah. From static instruction to completion was 14 months. 14. 14 months. Is there anywhere on the planet that would go faster? Is like trying to faster than that? China was 11 months. Got it. So Texas, China, 11 and 14 months. California, how many months? And just to give you a sense of size, the. It tells the Gigafactory in China, it's three times the size of the Pentagon.
我们来谈谈加利福尼亚和德克萨斯之间的差异吧。你和我现在都住在德克萨斯。在德克萨斯,你建造了超级工厂。我记得你拿到那块地的时候,然后感觉不到两年的时间,你们就举行了开业派对。是的,从静态建设到完工只用了14个月,14个月。地球上还有哪个地方能比这更快吗?中国用了11个月。明白了。所以德克萨斯和中国分别用了11和14个月。那加利福尼亚需要多少个月呢?顺便说一下,中国的超级工厂面积是五角大楼的三倍。
Which was the biggest building in America? No, there were bigger buildings. But the Pentagon's a pretty big one. Yeah, where it was in the thing. In units of Pentagon, it's like three. Okay. Three Pentagon's and counting. Yeah. Got it. In 14 months. Just the regulatory approvals in California would have taken two years. So that's the issue. Where do you think the regulation helps? Like for the people that will say, we need some checks and balances. We can't have some. Because for every good actor, like you, there'll be a bad actor. So where is that line?
哪个是美国最大的建筑物?不,这里有更大的建筑物。不过五角大楼还是挺大的。是的,在那方面。按五角大楼的单位来算,大概有三个。好的,目前有三个五角大楼,还在增加。明白了,在14个月内就完成了。仅仅是加州的审批就得花两年时间。这就是问题所在。你认为监管在哪些方面有帮助?比如有些人会说,我们需要一些制衡措施。我们不能没有监管。因为虽然有像你这样的好人,也会有坏人。所以那条界线在哪里?
Yeah, I mean, I haven't had sort of. You know, in sort of doing. Sensible deregulation and reduction in the size of government is just like the very public about it and say like, which of these rules do you. If the public is really excited about a rule and wants to keep it, we'll just keep it. And the thing about the rule is if the rule is, you know, it turns out to be a bad, we'll just put it right back. Okay. And then, you know, problem solved.
是的,我的意思是,我并没有真正经历过类似的情况。你知道,在进行合理的去监管和减少政府规模的时候,最好公开透明地进行,比如说,哪些规则是你们想要保留的。如果公众非常喜欢某条规则并且希望保留下来,那我们就保留。如果发现某条规则其实不好,我们可以立即恢复。这样问题就解决了。
It's like it's easy to add rules, but we don't actually have a process for getting rid of them. That's the issue. There's no garbage collection for rule. When we were watching you work, David and I in Antonio, in that first month at Twitter, which was all hands on deck, and you were doing zero-based budgeting, you really quickly got the cost under control. And then miraculously, everybody said this site will go down and you added 50 more features. So maybe explain. Yeah. Because this is the first time.
就像添加规则很容易,但实际上我们没有一个清除它们的过程。这就是问题所在。没有针对规则的“垃圾回收”。当时我们在Twitter的第一个月里(大家都全力以赴的时候),David和我以及Antonio在观察你的工作,你在实行零基预算,很快就把成本控制住了。然后奇迹般地,大家都说这个网站会崩溃,但你却添加了50个新功能。所以也许你可以解释一下。因为这是第一次发生这样的情况。
Yeah, there were like so many articles like the. This is Twitter is dead forever. There's no way I could possibly even continue at all. It was almost like the press was rooting for you to found. It's like, all right, let's write the obituary. Look, here's the obituary. They're all saying they're goodbyes on Twitter, remember that? Yeah, yeah. They're all leaving and saying they're goodbyes because the site was going to melt down. It was totally failing. All the journalists left. Yeah. Which is. If you ever want to hang out with a bunch of hall monitors, oh my god, Threads is amazing. Every time I go over there and post, they're really triggered. Yeah, I mean if you like being condemned repeatedly, then, you know, for reasons I make no sense, then Threads is the way to go. Yeah, it's really. It's the most miserable place on earth. Is these the happiest? This is the anti-Disney.
是啊,当时有好多文章都在说“推特死定了”。完全不可能继续下去。简直像是媒体在盼着你失败一样,准备好讣告似的。看,这就是讣告。他们都在推特上道别,还记得吗?对,他们都在离开,说着再见,因为这个网站要崩溃了,完全失败了。所有的记者都离开了。对。如果你想和一群“班级监督员”一起闲逛,天哪,Threads 简直太棒了。我每次过去发帖,他们都被激怒了。是啊,如果你喜欢被反复谴责的话,不管是什么原因,那 Threads 就适合你。真的,那里是地球上最糟糕的地方。与迪士尼的“最快乐的地方”相反,这是“最不快乐的地方”。
But if we were to go into government, you went into the Department of Education or pick the department, you've worked with a lot of them actually. You can't go in there and see our base budget. Okay, we get it. But if you could just pair two, three, four, five percent of those organizations, what kind of impact would that have? Yeah, I mean I think we'd need to do more than that, I think. Ideally. Yeah. Compounding every year, two, three percent a year. I mean it would be better than what's happening now. Yeah, look, I think we've. You know, if Trump wins, and I'll say I respect their people with mixed feelings about whether that should happen, but we do have an opportunity to do kind of a once in a lifetime deregulation and reduction in the size of government. Because the other thing, besides the regulations, America is also going bankrupt extremely quickly. And nobody seems to. Everyone seems to be sort of whistling past the graveyard on this one. They're all grabbing the silverware. Everyone's stuffing their pockets in the silverware before this. Titanic sinks.
但是,如果我们真的进入政府,你加入教育部门或者选择任何一个部门,你其实和很多部门都打过交道。你进去了以后,不能只看到我们的基本预算。这我们理解。但是,如果你能削减这些机构的两个、三个、四个、五个百分点,那会产生什么影响?我认为我们需要做的不止这些,理想情况下是每年减少两个、三个百分点。那比现在的情况要好得多。是的,我认为,如果特朗普赢了,虽然我知道人们对此有不同的看法,但我们确实有一个千载难逢的机会,可以进行一次全面的放松管制和缩小政府规模。除了监管问题,美国还在极快地走向破产。而没有人对此表示关切。每个人都像是在比喻中的墓地旁吹着口哨。他们都在抢银器,在这艘“泰坦尼克号”沉没前,每个人都在往口袋里塞满银器。
Well, you know, the Defense Department budget is a very big budget. Okay, it's a trillion dollars a year. DoD until it's trillion dollars. And interest payments on the national debt just exceeded the Defense Department budget. They're over a trillion dollars a year. Just an interest and rising. We're adding a trillion dollars to our debt, which our kids and grandkids are going to have to pay somehow, every three months. And then, soon it's going to be every two months. And then every month. And then the only thing we'll be able to pay is interest. And if this is. It's just like a person at scale that has racked up too much credit card debt. And this is not. This is not have a good ending. How committed is it? And so we have to reduce the spending. Let me ask one question, because I've brought this up a lot in the counter-argument I hear, which I disagree with. But the counter-argument I hear from a lot of politicians is if we reduce spending, because right now if you add up federal, state and local government spending, it's between 40 and 50 percent of GDP.
好的,你知道,国防部的预算是非常大的。每年是1万亿美元。国防部预算是1万亿美元。而仅国债的利息支付就超过了国防部的预算。每年超过1万亿美元。只是利息并且还在上升。我们每三个月增加1万亿美元的债务,我们的孩子和孙辈最终要以某种方式偿还这些债务。很快会变成每两个月增加1万亿,然后是每个月。到那时,我们能支付的只有利息。这就像一个负债过多的信用卡用户。这结局不好。我们必须减少开支。然而,我经常听到一些反对意见,虽然我不同意,但很多政治家会说,如果我们减少开支,因为现在国家、省和地方政府的开支加起来,占到GDP的40%到50%。
So nearly half of our economy is supported by government spending and nearly half of people in the United States are dependent directly or indirectly on government checks. And either through contractors that the government pays or they're employed by government entity. So if you go in and you take too hard an axe too fast, you will have significant contraction, job loss and recession. What's the balancing act, Elon? Just thinking realistically, because I'm 100 percent on board with you, the next set of steps, however, assume Trump wins and you become the chief doge. Do you like double G? And I think the challenge is how quickly can we go in? How quickly can we change? Without all the contraction and job loss. So I guess how do you really address it when so much of the economy and so many people's jobs and livelihoods are dependent on government spending?
所以,我们的经济中几乎有一半是由政府支出支持的,而美国有近一半的人口直接或间接依赖政府的补助。不管是通过政府支付的承包商,还是受雇于政府机构。如果你进入这个系统并且动作太迅速、手段太狠,就会导致显著的经济紧缩、失业和经济衰退。那如何平衡呢,Elon?实际考虑一下,因为我完全同意你的观点,但接下来的步骤,比如假设特朗普赢了,你成了政府的“主要大使”时该怎么办?我认为挑战在于我们如何快速行动?我们能多快改变?而不会导致经济紧缩和失业。所以,我的问题是,当经济和那么多人的工作和生计都依赖于政府支出时,你如何真正解决这个问题?
Well, I mean, I do think it's sort of, you know, it's a false dichotomy. It's not like no government spending is going to happen. You really have to say like, is it the right level? And just remember that, you know, any given person, if they are doing things in a less efficient organization versus more efficient organization, they're a contribution to the economy. And that output of goods and services will reduce. I mean, you've got a couple of clear examples between East Germany and West Germany, North Korea and South Korea. I mean, North Korea, they're starving. South Korea, it's like amazing. It's the future. It's a compounding effect of productivity gains. Yeah. Yeah, it's night and day. And so in the North Korea, you've got a 100 percent government. In South Korea, you've got probably, I don't know, 40 percent government. It's not zero.
嗯,我的意思是,我觉得这是一个虚假的二分法,并不是说完全没有政府支出。你真的得问问,政府支出的水平是否合适。记住,任何一个人,如果他们在一个效率低下的组织中工作,而不是在一个效率高的组织中工作,他们对经济的贡献会减少,那些商品和服务的产出会减少。我们可以举几个明显的例子,像东德和西德,朝鲜和韩国。朝鲜的人在挨饿,而韩国却令人惊叹,看起来像未来的样子,这是生产力提升的复合效应,差别就像白天和黑夜一样。在朝鲜,政府占据了经济的100%;在韩国,大概有40%的政府参与,但不是零。
And yet you've got a standard of living that is probably 10 times higher in South Korea. At least. At least, exactly. And then East and West Germany, in West Germany, you hadn't, just thinking in terms of cars. I mean, you had BMW, Porsche, Audi, Mercedes, and East Germany, which is a random line on a map. The only car you could get was a Trabant, which is basically a lawnmower with a shell on it. And it was extremely unsafe. There was a 20-year wait. So you put your kid on the list. As soon as they're conceived. And even then, only, I think, a quarter of people maybe got this lousy car. And so that's just an interesting example of basically the same people, different operating system. And it's not like West Germany was some capitalist heaven. It was quite socialist, actually.
然而,在韩国的生活水平至少要高出10倍,至少是这样。然后我们来看东德和西德的情况,在西德,你有宝马、保时捷、奥迪、奔驰等汽车,而东德呢,虽然只是地图上的一条随机分界线,唯一能买到的车只有Trabant(特拉班特),基本上就是一个装了外壳的割草机,非常危险。而且需要等20年,所以人们在孩子刚刚怀孕时就把名字排上等待名单。即便如此,可能只有四分之一的人能拿到这辆糟糕的车。这是同样的民族,不同的社会制度的一个有趣例子。而且西德也并不是某种资本主义天堂,实际上它是相当社会主义的。
So when you look, probably it was half government in West Germany and 100 percent government in East Germany. And again, sort of a five to, I'd call it at least a five to 10x standard of living difference. And even qualitatively, vastly better. And it's obviously, you know, some of the people have these amazingly in this modern era, this debate as to which system is better. Well, I'll tell you which system is better. The one that doesn't need to build the world to keep people in. Okay. That's how you can tell. Okay. It's a dead giveaway. It's a spoiler alert. Dead giveaway.
所以,当你查看时,可能在西德,政府控制了大约一半的经济,而在东德则是完全由政府控制的。再次强调,两者在生活水平上的差距至少是5到10倍。而且,从质的方面来说,西德的生活显然要好得多。令人惊讶的是,在现代社会中,一些人依然在争论哪种制度更好。那我告诉你,哪种制度更好呢?就是那个不需要建墙来关住人民的制度。明白了吗?这是个重要的线索,非常明显的提示。
Are they clogging the wall to get out or come in? You have to build a barrier to keep people in. That is the bad system. It wasn't West Berlin that built the wall. Okay. They were like, you know, anyone who wants to flee West Berlin, go ahead. Speaking of walls. So, you know, and if you look at sort of the flux of boats from Cuba, there's a large number of boats from Cuba. And there's a bunch of free boats that anyone can take to Cuba. Plenty of seats. There's like, hey, wow, an abandoned boat. I could use this boat to go to Cuba where they have communism. Awesome. Yes. And nobody picks up those boats and does it? Amazing.
他们是为了出去还是进来而堵住墙的?你必须建一个屏障来把人关在里面。这就是糟糕的制度。不是西柏林建的那堵墙。好吧,他们会说,你知道吗,任何想逃离西柏林的人,请便。说到墙。所以,你知道,如果你看看从古巴来的船的流动,有大量从古巴来的船。而且有很多免费船,任何人都可以乘坐去古巴。座位充足。就像,哇,一艘被遗弃的船。我可以用这艘船去古巴,那里的共产主义多棒啊。是的,但没有人会开这些船去古巴。真是令人惊讶。
So, you've given us a lot of thought. Yeah. So, your point is jobs will be created. If we cut government spending a half, jobs will be created fast enough to make up for, right, just to count. Yes. I'm not suggesting that people have like immediately tossed out with no severance and now can't pay their mortgage. They need to see some reasonable off ramp where, yeah. Yeah. So, reasonable off ramp where you know, they're still, you know, earning, they're still receiving money but have like, I don't know, a year or two to find jobs in the private sector, which they will find. And then they will be in a different operating system. Again, you can see the difference. East Germany was incorporated into West Germany. Living standards in East Germany rose dramatically. So, in four years, if you could shrink the size of the government with Trump, what would be a good target? Just in terms of like ballpark. I mean, are you trying to get me assassinated before this even happens? No. No. Pick a low number.
所以,你已经仔细考虑过了。是的。所以你的观点是,如果我们将政府开支削减一半,就业机会将会被创造出来。是的,就业机会将会增加,足以弥补削减的部分。我并不是说人们会马上被解雇而没有遣散费,导致他们无法支付房贷。他们需要看到一个合理的过渡期,对吧?对,就是一个合理的过渡期,使他们在此期间仍能获得收入,并且有一到两年的时间在私营部门找到工作,他们会找到的。然后他们会在不同的运营体系中工作。再说,东西德统一后,东德的生活水平显著提高了。因此,如果在四年内你能与特朗普一起缩小政府规模,合理的目标是什么?大致范围内。你是要在这还没开始之前就让我被暗杀吗?不,不会。选个低一点的目标吧。
I mean, you know, there's that old phrase go postal. I mean, it's like they might. Yeah. So, we'll keep the post office. I mean, I mean, I need a half a security details, guys. Yes. The zero number of disgruntled workers for former government employees is, you know, quite a scary number. I mean, I might not make it, you know. I was saying a low, low digits every year for four years would be palatable. Yeah. And I like your idea of an over. But the thing is that if it's not done, like if you have a once in a lifetime or once in a generation opportunity and you don't take serious action and then you have four years to get it done. And then if it doesn't get done, then how serious is Trump about this? Like you've talked to him about it. Yeah. Yeah. He is serious about it. Got it. And no, I think actually the reality is that I forget rid of nonsense regulations and shift people from the government sector to the private sector.
我想说,你知道,有个老话叫 "发邮疯"。意思是,他们可能真的会这样。所以,我们要保留邮局。我是说,我需要半个安保团队。那些前政府员工中的不满情绪,数量多少是个很吓人的数据。我可能撑不过去。每年维持在个位数的话,这四年都会是可以接受的。是的,我喜欢你提出的方案。但问题是,如果这事情不做好——如果你有一个千载难逢的机会而你没有采取严肃的行动,而你有四年时间去完成它。如果没完成,特朗普对这件事有多重视呢?你跟他谈过这个问题吧?是的,他确实很认真看待这件事。明白了。我认为,其实重中之重是摆脱一堆无用的规章,把人从政府部门转到私营部门去。
We will have immense prosperity. And I think we'll have a golden age in this country. And it'll be fantastic. Yeah. Yeah. Can we talk about that? Yeah. That's interesting. Um, do you have a bunch of critical milestones coming up? Yeah. In fact, there's an important, a very exciting launch that is maybe happening tonight. So if that, if the weather is holding up, then I'm going to leave here, head to the Cape Canaveral for the, um, the Plaristorn mission, which is a private mission. So find it by Derek. And, um, Jared Eisenman and he's a. Awesome guy.
我们将迎来巨大的繁荣。我认为我们这个国家将进入一个黄金时代,这将是非常棒的。对,对。我们可以谈谈这个吗?嗯,这很有趣。你近期有许多关键里程碑吗?是的,实际上今晚可能会有一个非常重要且令人兴奋的发射。如果天气允许,我将离开这里,前往卡纳维拉尔角参加Plaristorn任务,这是一次私人任务,由Derek和Jared Eisenman资助,他是一个非常棒的人。
And, and there, this will be the first time, uh, the first private, the first commercial for spacewalk, um, and it'll be at the highest altitude since Apollo. So it's the furthest from Earth that anyone's gone. Yeah. And you know, I'm not going back after that. Let's assume that's successful. I sure hope so, man. Um, no pressure. Um, yeah. You know, absolutely, you know, ashmore prior, ashmore safety is, man, if I had like all the, all the wishes I could say about that would be the one to put on. So, you know, space is dangerous. Um, so the, the, yeah, I mean, the next milestone after that would be, the next flight of Starship, um, which, um, you know, Starship is, the next flight of Starship is ready to fly. We are waiting for regulatory approval.
这是第一次私人、商业的太空行走,而且将在阿波罗以来的最高高度进行。这是离地球最远的一次飞行。是的,你知道的,在那之后我就不再去了。假设这次成功,希望真是如此啊,别有任何压力。是的,绝对的,你知道的,安全是最优先的,如果可以许愿,我就希望这个。太空是很危险的。下一个重要节点将是星舰的下一次飞行,星舰已经准备好飞行,我们正在等待监管批准。
You know, it really should not be possible to build a giant rocket faster than the paper can move from one desk to another. Yeah. And the stamp is really hard. Approved. Yeah. You've never seen that movie, you've proved. You've ever seen that movie, Zootopia, there's like a sloth coming in for the approval? Yeah, maybe accidentally tell a joke and then I was like, oh, no, this is going to take a long time. Sorry. Um, but yeah, Zootopia, you know, it's, you know, the funny thing is, I, so I went to the DMV about, I don't know, year later after Zootopia and to get my, one of license renewal. And the guy in an exercise of incredible self awareness had the sloth from Zootopia in his, um, his cube and he was actually swift.
你知道吗,居然能比公文从一个办公桌传递到另一个办公桌快地建成一枚巨大的火箭,这真是不应该啊。是啊,而且盖章的过程也非常麻烦。批准。对了,你看过那部电影《疯狂动物城》吗?里面有一只很慢的树懒来审批。也许开个玩笑,结果我就在想,哦,不,这会花很久时间。抱歉。不过说起《疯狂动物城》,有趣的是,我在看完电影的一年后去了车管所,想要更新驾照。结果那里的工作人员,出于绝妙的自嘲意识,在他的工作间挂了一只《疯狂动物城》里的树懒,而他实际上动作很快。
With that, with that mandate, beat the sloth. Yeah. No, personally agency, personal agency. No, I mean, some people like, I think the, you know, the government is, um, more confident than it is. I'm not saying that there aren't competent people in the government. They're just in an operating system that is inefficient. Um, once you move them to a more efficient operating system, they, their output is dramatically greater as we've seen. You know, when East Germany was reintegrated to, into, with West Germany and, and, and the same people, um, were vastly more prosperous with a basically half capitalist operating system. So, um, but I mean, for a lot of people live there, like the, maybe most direct experience with the government is the DMV. Um, and, and then the important thing to remember is that the government is the DMV at scale. Right.
翻译和解释如下:
“因此,有这样的授权,要击败懒惰。是的。个人自主性,个人自主性。我是说,有些人——我认为,你知道,政府比它实际上更自信。我不是说政府里没有有能力的人。他们只是处在一个效率低下的操作系统中。一旦你把他们转移到一个更高效的操作系统,他们的产出就会显著增加,就像我们看到的那样。当东德重新融入西德,同样的人,在基本上半资本主义的操作系统下变得更加繁荣。所以,对于很多人来说,他们可能和政府最直接的接触就是在车辆管理局(DMV)。重要的是要记住,政府在大型规模上就像车辆管理局一样。”
这样翻译后的文本更加易读,并且准确地传达了原文的意思。
That's the government. Got the mental picture. How much do you want to scale it? Yeah. Yeah. Sorry, can you go back to chemos, um, uh, question on starch? So you, you announced just the other day, a starship going to Mars in two years. And by the way. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And then four years for crude aspirational launch. Yeah. And how much is the government involved? I'm not saying, like, say you're watched by these, not, you know, but these, uh, but it, based on our current progress where we're, we're able to successfully reach oval of last year twice.
“政府的情况就是这样。你有了这样的心理图景了。你想要把它扩大到什么程度?嗯,很抱歉,你能回到Chemos关于淀粉的问题吗?刚刚前几天你宣布了两年内发射星舰到火星。顺便说一下,对四年内载人发射的计划也是一样。那么政府在其中参与多少?我不是说你被这些人监视了,而是根据我们目前的进展情况,我们去年已经成功到达椭圆轨道两次。”
Uh, we're able to achieve soft landings of the booster and the ship in the water. Uh, and that's despite the ship having, you know, habits, flaps, cooked off. Um, you can see the video on the platform. It's quite exciting. Um, so, you know, we, we think we'll be able to have to launch reliably and repeatedly and quite quickly. Um, and the, the fundamental holy grail breakthrough for rocketry for, to, to, what the fundamental breakthrough that is needed for life to become multi planetary is a rapidly reusable reliable rocket. RRRR. For the pirates. Um, throw a fire in there. Um, the.
呃,我们成功地让助推器和航天器在水面上实现了软着陆。呃,尽管航天器的某些部件,比如襟翼,可能已经损坏了。嗯,你可以在平台上看到相关视频,非常激动人心。所以,我们认为可以可靠且快速地进行多次发射。而生命能够扩展到多个星球的根本突破是快速可重复使用的可靠火箭。嗯,给海盗们一个惊喜,哈哈。
So with Starship is the first rocket design. Where. Success is one of the possible outcomes with full reusability. Um, so if you know, for any given project, you have to say, this is the circle to the right band diagram. Um, has a circle and it is success, the success dot in the circle. Um, is, is success in the set of possible outcomes? That's, uh, you know, sounds pretty obvious, but there are often projects where that, that is success is not in the set of possible outcomes. Um, and so, so Starship not only is fully full reusability in the set of possible outcomes, it is being proven with each launch. Um, and, and, and, uh, I'm confident we'll succeed a simply matter of time. And.
所以,星际飞船是第一个火箭设计,它的成功是所有可能结果中的一种,并且是完全可重复使用的。嗯,所以,如果你知道,对于任何一个项目,你必须说,这是右边的圆圈图。这张图有一个圆圈,圆圈内有一个成功点。成功是否在可能的结果集合中?这听起来很明显,但实际上经常有项目的成功并不在可能的结果集合中。所以,星际飞船不仅完全可重复使用是可能的结果之一,而且每次发射都在证明这一点。而且,我相信这只是时间问题,我们最终会成功的。
You know, if we can get some improvement in the speed of regulation, we could actually move a lot faster. Um, so that would, that would be very helpful. And in fact, if this, if something isn't done about, um, reducing regulation and sort of speeding up approvals. And to be clear, I'm not talking about anything unsafe. It's simply the processing of the safe thing can be done as fast as the rocket is both not slower than, uh, then we could become a space for civilization and a multi-climate species ultimate and be out there among the stars in the future. And there's. Yeah. It's, it's just very, like, it's incredibly important that we have things that, that we find inspiring that you look to the future and say the future is going to be better than the past.
你知道吗,如果我们能加快监管的速度,我们其实可以更快地推进。嗯,这会非常有帮助。事实上,如果不采取措施减少监管、加快审批速度,我指的是安全的东西,不是不安全的。只是说,如果我们能尽快处理那些已经证明是安全的东西,那么我们就能加速成为一个太空文明和多行星物种,在未来探索星辰大海。这非常重要,我们需要一些能够激励我们的东西,让我们对未来充满期待,相信未来会比过去更好。
Things to look forward to. And like, like kids are a good, a good way to assess this, like what are kids fired up about? And if you could say, you know, you could, you know, you could be an astronaut on Mars. You could maybe one day go beyond this whole system. We could make Star Trek, Starfleet Academy real. Um, that is an exciting future. That is inspiring. Um, you know, you just, I mean, you need things that move your heart. Right. Um, yeah. Fuck yeah.
未来值得期待的事。当你想评估这些事时,可以从孩子们的视角来看:孩子们对什么事情充满热情?比如,你可以对他们说,你能成为火星上的宇航员,也许有一天可以超越整个太阳系。我们能让《星际迷航》的星际舰队学院变成现实。这样的未来令人兴奋,充满鼓舞。你需要那些能感动你内心的事,对吧?天啊,真是太棒了。
Fuck yeah. Let's do it. Right. I mean, like, like life can't just be about solving one miserable problem after another. There's got to be things that you're looking forward to as well. Yeah. And, and do you think you might have to move it to a different jurisdiction and to move faster? I've always wondered if like, It's, and rocket technology is considered in fast weapons technology.
太棒了。那就干吧。对,我是说,生活不能总是只解决一个又一个糟糕的问题,你还得有一些值得期待的东西。对吧?你觉得你可能需要搬到其他地方去加快进度吗?我一直想知道,火箭技术是否被视为先进武器技术。
So we can't just go do it, you know, in another country. Yes. Yeah. Interesting. And if we don't do it, other countries could do it. I mean, they're so far behind us, but theoretically, there's a national security, you know, justification here if somebody can put their thinking caps on like, do we want to have this technology that your building, the teams, working so hard on stolen by other countries, and then, you know, maybe they don't have as much red tape. I wish people were trying to steal it. Um, so that no one's trying to steal it. It's too, it's too crazy, basically. Yeah. Um. And that's for you. Yeah. It's way too crazy. Yeah.
所以我们不能只是去另一个国家做这件事,对吧?是的,有趣的是,如果我们不做,其他国家可能会做。我是说,他们虽然远远落后于我们,但理论上,还是有国家安全的理由的,如果有人能从这个角度思考的话。我们要不要冒着我们团队辛苦研发的技术被其他国家窃取的风险?那些国家可能没有我们这么多的规章制度。我希望有些人试图窃取它,这样就说明它有价值。但目前没有人尝试这么做,所以你可以说它太疯狂了。对,这是给你的解答。的确,这个技术确实太疯狂了。
Elon, what do you think is going on that led to Boeing building the Star Line, the way that they did, they were able to get it up. But not complete. But can't complete. They can't finish. Can't finish. And now we're standing. Now we're standing. We're going to have to go up and finish. Um. Well, I mean, I think Boeing is a company that is, they actually do so much business with the government, they have sort of impedance matched to the government. So they're like basically one notch away from the government, maybe they're not far from the government from an efficiency standpoint because they derive so much of the revenue from the government. And a lot of people think more SpaceX is super dependent on the government and actually know most of our revenues commercial.
埃隆,你认为波音是怎么回事,为什么他们会按照那种方式制造星际线?他们能够发射上去,但无法完成。无法完成。而现在我们就站在这里。我们必须上去完成。嗯,我的意思是,我觉得波音是一家与政府做很多生意的公司,他们在某种程度上与政府保持一致。所以从效率角度来看,他们可能与政府相差不远,因为他们的收入很大一部分来自政府。有很多人认为SpaceX非常依赖政府,但实际上大部分我们的收入都是来自商业。
So, um. And there's been, I think at least up until perhaps recently, because then a new CEO who actually shows up in the factory. Yeah. And the CEO before that, I think had a degree in accounting and never went to the factory. And didn't know how airplanes flew. Um. So I think if you are in charge of a company that makes airplanes fly and a spacecraft to go to orbit, then it can't be a total mystery as to how they work. Yeah.
所以,嗯。我认为,至少直到最近,也许是因为新任命的首席执行官,他实际上出现在工厂里。是的。而之前的那位首席执行官,好像是会计学专业的,从未去过工厂,也不知道飞机是怎么飞的。嗯。所以我觉得,如果你负责一家制造飞机和航天器的公司,那么你总不能对它们的运作完全一无所知。是的。
So. You know, I'm like, sure, if somebody's like running Coca Pepsi and they're like great at marketing or whatever, that's fine because it's not a sort of technology dependent business. You know, or if they're running a, you know, financial consulting in their degrees in accounting, that makes sense. But I think, you know, if you go through the cavalry captain, you should know how to ride a horse. Pretty basic. Yeah. Yeah. It's like just concerning it. The cavalry captain is full of the horse. He's looking to inspire the team. I'm sorry. I'm scared of horses. Gets on backwards. I'm like, oops.
所以,你知道吗,我是这样认为的,如果有人在经营像可口百事这样的企业,他们对市场营销很在行,那很好,因为这不是一种依赖技术的业务。或者他们在做金融咨询,学的是会计专业,这也很合理。但我觉得,如果你要当骑兵队长,你应该会骑马。这是基本常识。对吧。如果骑兵队长完全不懂骑马,却还要激励团队,他说不好意思我害怕马,然后骑反了,这就让人很担心。
Shifting gears to AI. Peter was here earlier and he was talking about how so far the only company to really make money off AI is Nvidia with the chips. Um, do you have a sense yet of where you think the big applications will be from AI is again going to be in enabling self-driving. Is it going to be enabling robots? Is it transforming industries? I mean, it's still, I think, early in terms of where the big business impact is going to be. Give a sense yet. I mean, I think, I think the, the spending on AI probably runs ahead of, I mean, does run ahead of the revenue right now. There's no question about that. But the rate of improvement of AI is faster than any technology I've ever seen by far.
转到人工智能的话题。彼得之前在这里,他提到目前唯一真正从人工智能中赚钱的公司是生产芯片的Nvidia。嗯,你是否已经有一些想法,觉得人工智能的大应用领域会在哪里呢?是用在实现自动驾驶?还是用于机器人?亦或是改造产业?我的意思是,现在可能还有点早,还不明确大生意的影响会在哪里。你有一些感觉了吗?我的意思是,我认为现在在人工智能上的投入肯定超过了收入,这是毫无疑问的。但人工智能的发展速度远远快于我见过的任何技术。
And it's, I mean, like, for example, a Turing test used to be a thing. Now, you know, your basic open source random LLM writing on a freaking Raspberry Pi probably could, you know, be a Turing test. So there's, I think actually, like, the good future of AI is one of immense prosperity where there is an age of abundance, no shortage of goods and services. Everyone can have whatever they want unless, except for things we artificially define to be scarce like some special artwork. But anything that is of manufacturer good or provided service, I think with the advent of AI plus robotics, that the cost of goods and services will be, will trend to zero. Like, I'm not saying it would be actually zero, but it'll be, it, it, everyone's going to be able to have anything they want. That's the good future.
这段话的意思是说,比如图灵测试曾经是一个衡量人工智能的标准,但现在随便一个运行在树莓派上的开源大语言模型可能都能通过图灵测试。因此,作者认为人工智能的美好未来是一个高度繁荣的时代,那里不会有物资和服务的短缺。每个人都可以得到他们想要的,除了那些我们人为定义为稀缺的东西,比如一些特别的艺术品。对于任何制造的商品或提供的服务,作者认为随着人工智能和机器人技术的进步,商品和服务的成本将趋近于零。当然,这并不是说成本真的是零,但基本上每个人都能得到他们想要的。这就是理想的未来。
Of course, you know, in my view, that's probably 80% likely. So look on the bright side. Only 20% probably of annihilation. It's nothing. Is the 20% like what does that look like? No, man. I mean, frankly, I do have to go engage in some degree of deliberate suspension of disbelief with respect to AI in order to sleep well. And even then, because I think the actual issue, the most likely issue is like, well, how do we find meaning in a world where AI can do everything we can do a bit better? That is perhaps the biggest challenge. Although, you know, at this point I know more and more people who are retired and they seem to enjoy that life.
当然,你知道,在我看来,这个概率大概是80%。所以乐观点看,只有20%的概率会导致毁灭。几乎不算什么。那20%的概率怎么看?不,老兄,我是说,坦白讲,我确实得故意对AI保持一定程度的不信任,才能睡得安稳。即使这样,我认为最实际的问题是,我们怎样在一个AI能比我们更好地做所有事情的世界中找到意义。这或许是最大的挑战。不过你知道,现在我认识越来越多退休的人,他们似乎很享受那种生活。
But I think that maybe there'll be some crisis of meaning. Because the computer can do everything you can do a bit better. So maybe that'll be a challenge. But really, you know, you need this sort of end effector. You need the autonomous cars and you need the sort of humanoid robots or general purpose robots. Once you have general purpose, humanoid robots and autonomous vehicles, really you can build anything. And I think there's no actual limit to the size of the economy. I mean, there's obviously the massive earth, you know, like that would be one limit. The economy is really just the average productivity per person times number of people. That's the economy. And if you've got humanoid robots that can do, you know, where there's no real limit on the number of humanoid robots and they can operate very intelligently, then there's no actual limit to the economy. There's no meaningful limit to the economy.
但是我认为,也许会有一些意义上的危机。因为计算机能比你做得更好。所以这可能会成为一个挑战。但实际上,你知道,你需要这种末端执行器。你需要自动驾驶汽车,还有那种类人机器人或通用机器人。一旦你拥有了通用的类人机器人和自动驾驶汽车,你真的可以建造任何东西。我认为经济的规模实际上没有限制。我的意思是,显然地球本身是一个极限。这经济只是平均每人生产力乘以人数。如果你拥有数量不受限制、能非常智能地运作的类人机器人,那么经济规模实际上是没有限制的。经济规模没有意义上的极限。
You guys just turned on Colossus, which is like the largest private compute cluster, I guess, of GPUs anywhere. So it's the most powerful supercomputer of any kind. Which sort of speaks to what David said and kind of what Peter said, which is a lot of kind of economic value so far of AI is entirely gone to Nvidia. But there are people with alternatives and you're actually one with an alternative.
你们刚刚启动了Colossus,这是目前世界上最大的私有计算集群,应该是由GPU组成的吧。因此,它是最强大的超级计算机。这说明了David和Peter提到的一个问题,目前AI带来的大量经济价值几乎全部流向了Nvidia。但也有其他的选择,而你们正是一个这样的替代方案。
Now you have a very specific case because Dojo's really about images and large images, huge video. So, yeah, I mean, the Tesla problem is different from the, you know, the sort of LLM problem. The nature of the intelligence actually is actually, and what matters in the AI is different to the point you just made, which is that in Tesla's case, the context is very long. So you've got gigabytes of context. Gigabytes of context. Yeah, you've got, you know, sort of. I was just bringing it up. It's kind of billions of tokens of context, not a amount of context because you've got seven cameras and if you've got several, you know, let's say, a minute of several high-def cameras, then that's gigabytes.
现在你面临一个非常特殊的情况,因为Dojo系统主要处理的是图像和超大图像,甚至是巨大的视频。所以,是的,我的意思是,特斯拉的问题和所谓的大型语言模型(LLM)问题是不同的。AI的智能本质其实是不一样的,而你刚刚提到的一个关键点是,对于特斯拉来说,背景信息非常庞大,你有数千兆字节的背景信息。对,你有,呃,我是说,你有数十亿的上下文词元,而不是具体的背景信息,因为你有七个摄像头,如果说每个摄像头有一分钟的高清录像,那就是数千兆字节的信息量。
So you need to compress. So the Tesla problem is you've got to compress a gigantic context into the pixels that actually matter. And, you know, and condense that over a time. So you've got to, in both the time dimension, the space dimension, you've got to compress the pixels in space and the pixels in time. And then have that inference done on a tiny computer, relatively speaking, it's more, you know, a few hundred watts.
所以你需要进行压缩。特斯拉面临的问题是你必须把巨大的环境压缩成真正重要的像素。并且在一段时间内浓缩这些信息。因此,你需要在时间维度和空间维度上同时压缩空间和时间的像素。然后,还要在一个相对来说功耗只有几百瓦的小型计算机上进行推断。
It's a Tesla designed AI inference computer, which is, by the way, still the best. There isn't a better thing we could buy from suppliers. So the Tesla designed AI inference computer that's in the cars is better than anything we could buy from any supplier. Just, by the way, that's kind of a. By the way, the Tesla AI trip team is extremely good. You guys, in the design, there was a technical paper and there was a deck that somebody on your team from Tesla published. And it was stunning to me.
这是一台由特斯拉设计的AI推理计算机,顺便说一句,它仍然是最好的。我们从供应商那里买不到更好的东西。所以,特斯拉设计的车载AI推理计算机,优于我们能从任何供应商那里购买的任何产品。另外,顺便提一下,特斯拉的AI团队非常优秀。你们团队的某个成员发表了一篇技术论文和一个演示文稿,这让我感到非常惊艳。
You designed your own transport control, like, layer over ethernet. You were like, ah, ethernet's not good enough for us. You had this TTC or something. And you were like, oh, we're just going to reinvent ethernet and, like, string these chips. It's pretty incredible stuff that's happening over there. Yeah. No, the Tesla trip design team is extremely good. So.
你们设计了自己的一套传输控制层,就像是在以太网的基础上再加一层。你们觉得,以太网对于我们来说不够好。有一个叫TTC(之类的)东西。[然后你们决定重新发明以太网,把这些芯片串联起来。这真是太不可思议了。是的,特斯拉的芯片设计团队非常优秀。
But is there a world where, for example, other people over time that need, you know, some sort of, like, video use case or image use case, could theoretically, you know, you'd say, oh, why not? You know, I have some extra cycles over here. So we should kind of make you a competitor of NVIDIA. It's not intentionally per se, but. Yeah, I mean, the. You know, there's this training and inference. And we do have those two projects at Tesla. We've got Dojo, which is the training computer. And then, you know, our inference chip, which is in every. Every car in averse computer.
但是,是否有一种情况,例如,随着时间的推移,其他人需要某种视频或图像用途,你可以说:“为什么不呢?”你知道,我这边有一些多余的计算资源。所以我们应该让你成为NVIDIA的竞争对手。虽然这并不是故意的,但你知道,有训练和推理这两个方向。而且我们在特斯拉也有这两个项目。我们有Dojo,这是一个用于训练的计算机。然后,我们的推理芯片就在每一辆车的逆向计算机中。
So. And Dojo, we've only had Dojo 1. Dojo 2 is. You know, should be. We should have Dojo 2 in volume towards the end of next year. And that will be, we think, sort of, comparable to. Sort of a B200 type system, a training system. And, you know, so there's, I guess, there's some potential for that to be used as a service. But. Dojo is just kind of like. I mean, I guess I have, like, some improved confidence in Dojo. But I think we won't really know how good Dojo is until probably version 3. And it usually takes three major iterations on a technology for it to be excellent.
好的。那么关于Dojo,我们目前只有Dojo 1。Dojo 2应该会在明年年底走向量产。我们认为Dojo 2大致可以和B200类型的培训系统相媲美。并且,这也有一些作为服务使用的潜力。不过,我对Dojo的信心有所提高,但我认为我们可能要等到Dojo 3版本才能真正知道它有多好。通常来说,一项技术需要经过三次重要的迭代才能变得非常优秀。
And we'll only have the second major iteration next year. The third iteration, I don't know, maybe late, you know, 26 or something like that. How's the Optimus project going? I remember when we talked last. You said it's publicly that it's in doing some light testing inside the factory. Yeah. So it's actually being useful. It's the build of materials and when, you know, for something like that at scale.
明年我们才会有第二个主要版本。第三个版本嘛,我不知道,也许会在26年晚些时候,你懂的。Optimus项目进展怎么样了?我记得我们上次谈话时你说过,项目已经在工厂里进行一些轻度测试了。是的,所以它实际上是有用的。现在正在了解材料清单,尤其是大规模生产时所需的那种。
So when you start making it like you're making the Model 3 now and there's a million of them coming off the factory line, what would they cost? $20, $30, $40,000, you think? Yeah. I mean, I've discovered really that, you know, anything made in sufficient volume will asymptotically approach the cost of its materials. So now there's. So some things are constrained by the cost of intellectual property and like paying for patents and stuff.
所以,当你像现在生产Model 3一样开始大批量生产时,如果每年有一百万辆下线,它们的价格会是多少呢?是$20,000、$30,000还是$40,000?你觉得呢?是的,我是说,我发现任何东西,只要产量足够大,它的成本最终都会越来越接近其原材料的成本。不过,有些东西的成本还会受到知识产权费用和比如支付专利费用的限制。
So a lot of, you know, what's in a chip is like paying royalties and depreciation of the chip bab. So, but the actual marginal cost of the chips is very low. So Optimus, obviously, is humanoid robot. It is way much less than it's much smaller than a car. So you could expect that in high volume, and I'd say that you also probably need three production versions of Optimus. So you need to refine the design three major times and then you need to scale production to sort of the million unit plus per year level.
芯片中其实有很多成本,像是支付专利费和芯片设备的折旧费用。但实际上,芯片的边际成本非常低。Optimus显然是一个人形机器人,它比一辆车小得多,所以在大量生产时,成本会非常低。我认为,Optimus需要经过三个主要版本的设计改进,然后需要将产量扩大到每年超过一百万台的水平。
And I think at that point, the cost, you know, the labor materials on Optimus is probably not much more than $10,000. And that's a decade-long journey, maybe? Basically, think of it like Optimus will cost less than a small car. Right. So at scale volume with three major iterations of technology, and so if a small car costs $25,000, you know, it's probably like a $20,000 for an Optimus for a humanoid robot that can be your body like a combination of R2D2 and C3PO, but better. Yeah. I think people are going to get really attached to their humanoid robot because, I mean, like you're looking to sort of watch Star Wars and it's like R2D2 and C3PO. I love those guys.
我认为在那时,Optimus 的成本,包括劳动力和材料,可能不会超过1万美元。而这是一个需要十年时间的旅程,基本上可以这样想:Optimus 的成本会比一辆小汽车还低。对吧,所以在大规模生产和三次主要技术迭代之后,如果一辆小车的价格是2.5万美元,那么一个像R2D2和C3PO结合体,但更好的类人机器人Optimus可能会大约2万美元。我相信人们会对他们的类人机器人产生很深的感情,因为你看着星球大战里的R2D2和C3PO,对吧,我爱他们。
Yeah. You know, they're awesome. And their personality and I mean, all R2 could do is just be for you. Right. That's good to speak English. And C3PO to translate the beeps. So you're in year two of that, if you did two or three years per iteration or something, it's a decade-long journey for this to hit some sort of scale. I would say major iterations are less than two years. Okay. It's probably on the order of five years. Yeah. Maybe six to get to a million years a year. And at that price point, everybody could afford one. Yes. I mean, it's going to be that one to one, two to one. What do you think ultimately, if we're sitting here in 30 years, the number of robots on the planet versus humans? Yeah. I think the number of robots will vastly exceed the number of humans. Vastly. Yeah. Vastly. I mean, you have to say like who would not want their robot buddy? Everyone wants a robot buddy. Oh, man. You know, it's like, especially if it can, you know, it can take care of your, your, take your dog. Take your dog for a walk. It could, you know, mow the lawn. It could watch your kids. It could, you know, like it could teach your kids. It could, it could. We could also send it to Mars. Yeah. Absolutely. We could send a lot of robots to Mars to do the work needed to make it a colonized planet for humans. And Mars is already the robot planet. It's like a whole bunch of robots, like rovers and helicopters. Yes. Only robots.
对啊。你知道的,他们真的很棒。他们的个性也是,我的意思是,像R2(星球大战中的R2-D2机器人)只能为你做点事,对吧?不过这已经很好了,他还会说英语。而C3PO(星球大战中的C-3PO机器人)能翻译R2的哔哔声。所以,如果你每次迭代花费两到三年的时间,那要达到某种规模可能需要十年的时间。我会说主要的迭代时间少于两年。大概五年左右。可能六年就能达到每年生产一百万台。以那个价格,人人都能买得起一个。对,差不多就是一比一、二比一的比例。你认为最终,如果我们在30年后回过头看,地球上机器人的数量和人类相比会是怎样的比例?嗯,我觉得机器人数量将远远超过人类。远远超过。谁不想要一个机器人伙伴呢?每个人都想要一个机器人伙伴。尤其是,如果它能照顾你的狗,遛狗、剪草坪,看孩子,甚至能教孩子。我们还可以把它们送到火星。对,绝对可以。我们可以送很多机器人去火星,做殖民所需的工作。火星已经是个机器人星球了,到处都是机器车和小型飞行器。对,只有机器人。
So yeah. No, I think the sort of useful humanoid robot opportunity is the single biggest opportunity ever. Because if you assume like, I mean, the ratio of human robots to humans is going to be at least two to one, maybe three to one. Because everybody will want one. And then there'll be a bunch of robots that you don't see that are making goods and services. And you think it's a general one generalized robot that then learns how to do different tasks or? Yeah. Hey, I mean, we are a generalized. Yeah, we're a general. We're just non-rope. We're just made a meat, you know. We're a meat but with generalizing. Yeah, I mean, operating my meat puppet, you know. So yeah, we are actually. We haven't.
所以,就是的。我认为有用的类人机器人机会是史上最大的机遇。因为你可以假设,人形机器人的数量至少是人类数量的两倍,也许是三倍。因为每个人都会想要一个。而且会有很多你看不到的机器人在生产商品和服务。你认为这是一个能学会不同任务的通用机器人吗?对,没错。其实,我们人类本身也是通用的。我们只是不像机器人那样,而是由肉体组成的。我们是由肉体组成的通用生物。是的,我在操控我的肉体木偶。所以,实际上,我们是……我们还没有……
And by the way, it turns out like, as we were designing optimists, we'd sort of learn more about why humans are shaped the way they're shaped. And you know, and why we have five fingers and why your little finger is smaller than your index finger. You know, obviously why you have opposable thumbs. But also why, for example, the muscles, the major muscles that operate your hand are actually in your forearm. And your fingers are primarily operated. The muscles that actuate your fingers are located. The vast majority of your fingers strength is actually coming from your forearm. And your fingers are being operated by tendons, little strings. And so the current version of the optimists hand has the actuators in the hand and has only 11 degrees of freedom. So it's not as, it doesn't have all the degrees of freedom of human hand, which has, depending on how you count it, a roughly 25 degrees of freedom. And it's also like, a lot strong enough in certain ways because the actuators have to fit in the hand.
顺便说一句,当我们在设计乐观派机器人时,我们逐渐了解了为什么人类的身体形态是这样的。例如,为什么我们有五根手指,为什么你的小指比你的食指小,显然还有为什么我们会有对生拇指。此外,例如,为什么操作你手部的主要肌肉实际上在你的前臂,而不是手指上。实际上,大部分手指的力量来自于前臂,手指是通过肌腱,即小绳子来操作的。
而目前乐观派机器人的手部版本,它的执行器(驱动器)在手部,有11个自由度,不像人类的手能有大约25个自由度(根据不同的计算方式)。另外,由于执行器需放在手部,现版本在某些方面还不够强大。
So the next generation optimists hand, which we have in prototype form, the actuators have moved to the forearm, just like human, and they operate the fingers through cables, just like the human hand. And then the next generation hand has 22 degrees of freedom, which we think is enough to do almost anything that a human can do. And presumably, I think it was written that X and Tesla may work together and, you know, provide services, but my immediate thought went to, oh, if you just provide a grok to the robot, then the robot has a personality and can process voice and video and images and all of that stuff. So yeah, that's where you wrap here.
下一代的乐观主义者手(即我们目前拥有的原型手)已经将执行器移到了前臂位置,就像人类一样,通过线缆来操作手指,和人类的手非常相似。而且下一代的手有22个自由度,我们认为这足够完成几乎所有人类可以做的事情。据说特斯拉和X可能会合作提供一些服务,但我立刻想到的是,如果你给机器人提供一个先进的人工智能系统,这样机器人就有了一个个性,可以处理语音、视频和图像等等。所以,就说到这里吧。
I think, you know, everybody talks about all the projects you're working on, but people don't know you have a great sense of humor. That's not true. Oh, you do. You do. People don't see it, but I would say, I know for me, the funniest week of my life, or one of the funniest was when you did SNL and we got, and you, I got to tag along. Maybe you saw it. Behind the scenes, like, some of your funniest recollections of that chaotic insane week when we laughed for 12 hours a day. It was a little terrorizing on the first couple of days, but. Yeah, I was a bit worried at the beginning there because, frankly, nothing was funny. Day one was rough. Rough. Yeah, so, I mean. It was like a rule, but can't you guys just say it? Say the stuff that got on the cutting. The funniest skits were the ones that didn't let you do. That's what I'm saying. Can you just say it? There were a couple of funny ones. Yeah, that didn't let you do it. You can say it so that he doesn't get it. I mean, how much time do we have here? Well, we should just give one or two because it was. In your mind, which one do we regret most? It's not getting on air. You really want to hear that? I mean. I mean, it was a little spicy. It was a little funny. Okay. Here we go. All right, here we go, guys. All right.
我觉得啊,大家都在谈论你参与的各种项目,但没人知道其实你有超棒的幽默感。那不是事实。哦,不,你真的很搞笑。虽然别人看不到,但对我来说,我人生中最搞笑的一周,或者说之一,就是你主持《周六夜现场》的那一周。而且我有幸能跟在你后面。也许你看到过,幕后的一些场景,你记得那些混乱又疯癫的一周吗?每天我们笑足了12小时。前几天有点吓人。不过,起初我有点担心,因为说实话,什么都不搞笑。第一天特别艰难。艰难。所以,我的意思是,有些规则,但你们不能直接讲出来吗?那些被删减的搞笑短剧才最搞笑。这就是我想说的。你们能说说那些被删掉的吗?有几个还挺有趣的。对,他们不让你演的。你可以说出来,这样他就不会……我是说我们的时间有限。嗯,我们应该就讲一两个,因为那是……在你心中,最遗憾哪个没有播出?你真的想听吗?我意思是,有点辣,有点搞笑。好吧,就这个。准备好了吧,各位。好了,开始吧。
So, one of the things that I think everyone's been sort of wondering this whole time is, is Saturday Night Live actually live? Live. Live live live live, or do they have like a delay or like just in case, you know, there's a wardrobe malfunction or something like that. Right. Is it like a, you know, five second delay? What's really going on? But there's a way to test this. Right. We came out of the way. There's a way to test this. Which is, we don't tell them what's going on. I walk on and say, this is the script. I'll throw it on the ground. We're going to find out tonight, right now. If Saturday Night Live is actually live. And the way that we're going to do this is I'm going to take my cock out. This is way more and way. And if you see my cock, you know it's true. And if you don't, it's been a lie. All these years. All these years. We're going to bust them right now. We're pitching this. Yeah, yeah. So we're pitching this on Zoom. Yeah, we're pitching this on Zoom on like Monday. It's COVID. We're like kind of hung over from the weekend. We're like pitching this on like noon. And it's, you know, Jason's on. And, you know, so it's interesting to go like, you know, my friends, I think a sort of, you know, quite funny, you know, Jason's quite funny. I think like Jason's the closest thing to Cartman that exists in the world in the world. Yeah. We have a show of killing that. He's butters and I'm Cartman. Yeah. So, and I've heard Mike's pretty funny too. So we come in like just like guns blazing with ideas. And we do realize like actually, you know, that's not how it works. And that's, that's normally like actress and they just get told what to do. And like, oh, you mean we can't just like do funny things that we thought of? What? They're watching this and on the Zoom, they're a guest. Yes, no, no, no, it's pitch. Yeah, it's silence. Like so I'm like, and I'm like, and I'm like, is this thing working? Is this? We knew it is. Is that Mike on? I mean, like we hear you. And then after a long silence, like Mike just says the word crickets. And they're not laughing. And then you get a, not even a trouble. What's going on? And then Eli explains the punch line, which is. Yes, exactly. So there's more to it. Okay. Yes. That's just the beginning. So Eli says.
所以,我觉得这段时间大家都有一个疑惑,那就是《周六夜现场》到底是不是现场直播?真的现场直播。到底是不是。还是他们有延迟之类的措施,比如防止服装出问题什么的。对吧。是不是有个五秒延迟之类的?究竟是什么情况?不过有一种方法可以测试。对,我们想到了一种方法来测试。那就是,不事先告诉他们。我走上舞台,说这是剧本,然后把剧本扔到地上。今晚,我们就会搞清楚《周六夜现场》是不是真的现场直播。我们的测试方式是,我会把我的那啥露出来。如果你看到了,那这节目肯定是真的现场直播。如果你没看到,那就是他们骗了我们这么多年。我们现在就要揭穿他们。我们这是在Zoom上提的这个想法。对,我们在疫情期间的一个周一中午,在Zoom上提这个好点子。我们可能还带点周末的宿醉,就在中午提这个点子。Jason也在,所以你知道,我朋友觉得他挺搞笑的,我也觉得Jason挺搞笑的。我觉得Jason就是现实世界里的Cartman。他表现得像Butters,而我就是Cartman。我听说Mike也挺搞笑的。所以我们就带着一大堆好点子进来。但我们后来才意识到,原来事情不是这样运作的。一般演员只是按指示做事。你是说我们不能就这样做我们想到的搞笑的事?他们在Zoom上听我们说这些,没反应。然后,我就觉得,这东西是坏了吗?对方说,能听到你们。然后在一阵长时间的沉默后,Mike只说了一句:“完全没反应。”他们完全不笑,一点也不笑。然后Eli解释了笑点。对,确实是这样。所以还有更多的。我就对Eli说。
So, so then I'm, so now I'm like, so, so, so I say like I'm, I'm, I'm gonna, I'm gonna reach down. Into my pants. Into my pants. Into my pants. And I, and I stick my hand to my pants. And I'm going to, and I'm, and I'm going to pull my call gun. I tell this to the audience and the audience is going to be like, go, what? Right.
所以,我就,我现在是这样,我就说,我,我,我要伸手。伸进我的裤子。伸进我的裤子。伸进我的裤子。然后我把手伸进裤子里。我要,我要拿出我要打电话的枪。我告诉观众这一点,然后观众就会反应,什么?对吧。
And, and, and, and, and, and then, and then, and then, and then I pull out a, a baby rooster. You know, and it's like, okay, this is kind of PG, you know, it's like that, not that bad. This is my tiny cock. And, and, and it's like, what do you think? And so then, and do you think it's an ice cock? I mean, I like it. And I pitch. Yeah. And then Kate McKinnon walks out. Yeah, exactly. And I'm like, oh no, but you haven't heard half of it. McKinnon comes out. Yeah. And she says, Elon, I expected you would have a bigger cock. Yeah. I don't mean to just want you, Kate, but yeah. But I, I hope you like it anyway. And then, but, but, but Kate's got to come out with, with, with her cat. Okay. Right. So.
然后,然后,然后,然后,然后,然后,然后我就拿出一只小鸡。你知道,就是那种,哦,好吧,这还算适合所有人观看的,没那么糟。这是我的小鸡。然后,就像,问你觉得怎么样?然后你认为这是块冰鸡吗?我是说,我喜欢它。然后我演讲。然后凯特·麦金农走出来。没错。然后我就想,哦不,你还没听到一半呢。麦金农走出来。她说,埃隆,我以为你会有一只更大的鸡。我不是想打扰你,凯特,但我希望你还是喜欢它。但是,凯特得带着她的猫出来。好的。就是说。
And Kate says, you can see where this is going. And I say, nice. Wow. That's, that's a, that's a nice pussy you've got there, Kate. Wow. That's amazing. It looks a little wet. Was it raining outside? I think, um, can I just, do, do you mind if I stroke your pussy? Is that cool? It's like, oh no, Elon, actually, can I hold your cock? Of course, Kate, you definitely hold my cock. Um, and, and then, you know, we exchange. And I think just the audio version of this is pretty good. Right. Um, and, and, um, you know, it's just like, wow, you're, I really like, um, stroking your cock. So, um, and it's like, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, you know, I'm really enjoying stroking your pussy. Yeah. Of course. And, um, yeah. So, you know. They're looking at us like, oh my god, what have we done inviting these lunatics on the program? Yeah. And then they said, they said like, well, um, it is, uh, it is Mother's Day. It's Mother's Day. We might not want to go with this mother's. You might not want to go with this one. Why the moms in the audience. I'm like, well, that's a good point. Fair, fair. It might be a bit uncomfortable for all the moms in the audience, maybe. I don't know. I don't know. Maybe they'll dig it. Maybe they'll like it. So, yeah.
凯特说,你应该能看出这要往哪儿发展。我说,好,很棒。凯特,你那只小猫真漂亮。哇,真不可思议,它看起来有点湿。外面下雨了吗?我可以摸一下你的小猫吗?你介意吗?她说,哦不,埃隆,其实,我可以抱一下你的公鸡吗?当然可以,凯特,你绝对可以抱我的公鸡。然后我们互相交换。我觉得光是音频版本就已经很不错了。是的,哇,我真的很喜欢抚摸你的公鸡。哦,我也很享受摸你的小猫。当然了。所以,你知道的,人们看着我们就像在说,天哪,我们请这些疯子来节目做什么?然后他们说,今天是母亲节。今天是母亲节,我们可能不太适合聊这个话题,因为现场有很多妈妈。我觉得你们说得有道理,哈哈,也许妈妈们会觉得有点不适。也许她们会喜欢这个话题,也说不定。是的。
Yeah, that was. Yeah. That's the cold open that didn't make it. We didn't get that on the air. We did fight for Doge. Yes. And we got Doge on the air. I mean, there's a bunch of things that I said that were just not on the script. They have these like cue cards for what you were supposed to say. And I just didn't say it. I just went off the rails. Yeah. They didn't do that coming. Yeah, it's live. Well, it's live. And so Elon wanted to do Doge. This is the other one.
是啊,确实是这样的。那个冷启动没能播出。我们没能让它上电视。但是我们确实为Dogecoin争取了机会,对,我们成功让Dogecoin上了电视。其实有很多话我是即兴说的,根本不在剧本里。他们有提示卡,上面写着你该说什么,但我没有照着念,我完全脱稿发挥了。是啊,他们没预料到这点。毕竟是直播嘛,是直播的。而且Elon也想做Dogecoin,这就是另外一回事了。
And he wanted to do Doge on late night. And he says, hey, Jake, how can you make sure? Oh, yeah. I wanted to do the Doge father. You sort of redo the scene from the Godfather. I mean, you kind of need the music to cue things off. Da da da da da da. Da da da da da da da. You bring me on my daughter's wedding. Da da da da da da da. This, and you ask for dog. Yeah. You got more on brand name. I give you a bit, Gwen, but you want dog. Exactly. You really got to set the mood. You got the sexy stuff off us in the air. You got to have like, more on brand or? Yeah. I said, you come to me, on the stand of my door to the wedding. And you asked me for your private keys. Are you even a friend? You call me the door father. So, Bono, Sarah, Bono, Sarah. No. So, that's potential. They had great potential.
他想在深夜做一个关于Doge的节目。他说:“嘿,杰克,你怎么确保...哦,对了,我想做个Doge教父,你需要重现《教父》的场景。我是说,你得有那种背景音乐来铺垫。哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒。你在我女儿的婚礼上找我。哒哒哒哒哒哒哒哒。然后你来问我要狗。对的,这个名字更贴合品牌。我给你一块,但你想要狗。没错,你真的得营造出这种氛围。你得有那种性感的感觉在空中弥漫。你得有更贴合品牌的东西,对吧。我说,你在我女儿的婚礼那一天来找我,问我要你的私钥。你真的是朋友吗?你称我为门教父。所以,博诺,莎拉,博诺,莎拉。不,所以,这是有潜力的。他们很有潜力。”
So they come to me and I'm talking to Colin and Joe. He's got a great sense of human. He's amazing. He loves Elon. And he's like, we can't do it because of the law and stuff like that. And the law and the liability. So I said, it's okay. Elon called Comcast and he put it in offer and they just accepted it. There's a lot NBC. So it's fine. Yeah. And Colin, Joe, just looks at me. So good. And he's like, you're serious. We own NBC now. And he's like, okay, well, that kind of changes things, doesn't it? I'm like, absolutely. Where ago on doge? And then he's like, you're fucking with me. And I'm fucking with you. Or are we? It was the greatest week of and that like is like two of 10 stories. Yeah, we got to. Yeah, we got to. We'll save the other eight. Yeah. But it was and it was just so happy for you to see you have a great week of just joy and finally letting go because you were launching rockets. You're dealing with so much bullshit in your life to have those moments to share them and just laugh. It was just so great. Yeah, more of those moments. I think we got to get you back on the S&L. Who wants to back on S&L one more time? Ladies and gentlemen, our bestie, Elon Musk. Thank you.
所以他们来到我这里,我正在和Colin和Joe谈话。他太幽默了,真的很棒。他非常喜欢Elon。他说,我们不能做,因为有法律等问题,还有法律责任。所以我说,没关系。Elon打电话给Comcast,提出了一个报价,他们就接受了。NBC这边就搞定了。所以没问题。然后,Colin和Joe看着我,感到很惊讶。他问,你是认真的吗?我们现在拥有NBC了?我说,对,确实改变了一些事,对吗?他说,完全正确。我们要上狗狗币了吗?然后他说,你在逗我吗?我说,我是不是在逗你?这是最棒的一周了。这只是十个故事中的两个。我们得把另外八个留着。但这真的是很高兴看到你有一个充满欢乐的一周,终于能放松一下。你之前还在发射火箭,处理生活中那么多的麻烦。能有这些时刻分享并且大笑,真的太好了。我们需要更多这样的时刻。我想我们应该让你重新上一次《周六夜现场》。谁想让Elon Musk再上一次《周六夜现场》?女士们先生们,我们的朋友,Elon Musk。谢谢。