An Unexpected First for Tesla / An Egregious Decision / Polestar Gets Rocked ⚡️
发布时间 2024-08-29 00:16:22 来源
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This video is sponsored by SimpliSafe and let me tell you, there's no safe, like SimpliSafe. Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis, quick shout out to my newest patron, Ken S. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. In terms of my recovery, I'm probably 85-90% of the way back, so thank you for all of your patience over the past two weeks. Meet Kevin, just put out a video about Tesla stock and I actually agree with the directional sentiment that he shared, but he made a few arguments that I definitely wanted to take a moment to respond to. And Kevin, if you see this, I know the last time I responded to one of your videos, you did end up responding to me about that, so if you happen to see this video, I'm a fan of yours, I watch your content fairly often, especially about Tesla, but I want to share some counterpoints to arguments that you made that I think could be valuable for the audience. And to be clear, as I've expressed before, when it comes to the likelihood of more downward pressure on Tesla stock in the weeks and months ahead, I actually am aligned with Kevin.
这段视频由SimpliSafe赞助,让我告诉你,用SimpliSafe,你会感受到前所未有的安全。欢迎来到《Electrified》频道,我是你的主持人Dylan Loomis,先向我的最新支持者Ken S.致敬。感谢你选择支持本频道。关于我的康复情况,目前我大概恢复了85-90%,谢谢大家在过去两周的耐心等待。Kevin最近发布了一段关于特斯拉股票的视频,我其实同意他分享的方向性观点,但他提出了一些论点,我想花点时间回应一下。如果Kevin你看到这段话,我知道上次我回应你的视频时,你确实做了回复,所以如果你看到这个视频,我是你的粉丝,经常观看你的内容,特别是关于特斯拉的内容,但我想分享一些反驳你的观点,我认为这些对观众会有价值。明确一点,如我之前所说,我也认为在接下来的几周和几个月里,特斯拉股票可能会有更多下行压力,在这一点上我其实是和Kevin意见一致的。
One of the first arguments Kevin cited for his concern for Tesla stock was a stat from Edmonds that 50% of Tesla buyers when they trade in their vehicles are actually trading it in for an ice vehicle. However, this breakdown of data is only for Teslas that were traded in at dealerships. So the stat is really not that of all Tesla owners 50% of them are selling their Tesla for an ice car. It's really a smaller sample size and only Tesla owners who are trading in their vehicle at a dealership. So if you trade in your car to Tesla, or you just keep that older Tesla, then you're not in this data. If you zoom out and look at the trend, that number is actually an improvement relative to just three to five years ago. Here's the Tesla trade in data by year back in 2019, 71% of Tesla trade ins were for an ice vehicle. And over the last five to six years, the general trend with some aberrations along the way has been a reduction down to 51% year to date. Additionally, more of these Tesla trade ins are actually staying in the market for an EV, even if it's from the competition. That number was 10% in 2019. It's now up to 32% year to date. Kevin also brought up residual value data for the past two years. He said for the average ice used vehicle, their residual values are down about 7%. Comparatively for the average used EV over the past two years, their average value is down 39%. That was a reason he gave for why some people don't want to buy an electric vehicle or a Tesla because the residual values are just going to plummet. But no context was given. Obviously, the last two years used Tesla prices were near their all time highs. And of course, new car price cuts for Tesla and aging vehicle fleet, all of the Hertz liquidation. My counterpoint is I just think used Tesla prices right now are much closer to a minimum. Meaning specifically for Tesla, there's much less downside when it comes to residual values for new owners buying today than there was back in 2022. I would argue legacy OEMs may still have a significant downside risk when it comes to residual values. They're likely going to have to continue lowering their new EV pricing, which will drive down used pricing. And as their second gen EVs come out, their first gen won't be as valuable. In short, as a buyer of a new Tesla vehicle today, my argument would be that there's not nearly as much downside risk when it comes to residual values as there was two years ago. Not that there's none at all, but the chances of a 50 to 100% downside for used pricing seems very unlikely. Both for the current used market and if you were to buy a new Tesla today and think about selling it in the next two to three years. Of course, autonomy could blow up that equation, but at least as things stand for now. Honestly, the fact that the Cybertruck has been out for many months now, and the Cybertruck still does not have full self driving, to me, indicates that no full self driving is not portable to different types of vehicles. But let's just be real, if we can't even get FSD for the Cybertruck, what makes any of us believe that we're actually going to get full self driving for some other company, be it a Ford or GM or otherwise.
凯文提到他对特斯拉股票担忧的其中一个主要论点,是引用了Edmonds的一项统计数据,显示50%的特斯拉车主在置换车辆时选择了燃油车。然而,这项数据仅限于在经销商处置换的特斯拉。所以,这并不意味着所有特斯拉车主中有50%的人卖掉他们的特斯拉去买燃油车。这只是一个较小的样本量,专指那些在经销商处置换的特斯拉车主。如果你把车换给特斯拉,或者一直保留旧的特斯拉,那么你不在这项数据之内。如果我们放眼趋势,这个数字实际上比三到五年前有了改善。以下是特斯拉历年置换数据:2019年71%的特斯拉置换为燃油车,而过去五到六年,总体趋势(尽管有一些偏差)呈下降趋势,至今年为止降到了51%。此外,更多的特斯拉置换车辆仍然停留在电动车市场,即使是换成了竞争对手的电动车。2019年这个比例是10%,如今已升到32%。
凯文还提到了过去两年的残值数据。他说,对于普通的二手燃油车,其残值下降了约7%。而相比之下,二手电动车在过去两年内,其平均残值下降了39%。他认为这就是为什么有些人不想买电动车或特斯拉,因为残值会大幅下跌。但他没有提供背景情况。显然,过去两年里二手特斯拉的价格几乎达到了历史最高点;此外,新车价格下调、车队老化以及赫兹清仓等因素也影响了价格。我的反驳观点是,我认为现在二手特斯拉的价格已非常接近最低点。具体而言,对于今天购买特斯拉的新车主来说,残值下跌的风险比2022年小得多。我认为传统车企在残值方面仍可能面临显著的下行风险。因为它们可能需要继续降低新电动车的价格,这将压低二手车的价格。而且,当它们推出第二代电动车时,第一代车型的价值将降低。
简而言之,作为今天的新特斯拉车购买者,我认为在残值方面的下行风险并不像两年前那么大。并不是说没有风险,但二手价格下跌50%到100%的可能性非常小。不论是针对当前的二手市场,还是如果你今天购买新特斯拉并打算在未来两到三年内出售。当然,自动驾驶可能改变这一状况,但至少目前来看还是这样的。老实说,考虑到Cybertruck上市已有数月,而它仍未实现全自动驾驶,我认为全自动驾驶技术并不适用于不同类型的车辆。但事实是,如果连Cybertruck都无法实现全自动驾驶,我们为什么会相信其他公司(如福特或通用)能够实现呢?
Okay, Kevin, first of all, just because FSD is not available on the Cybertruck yet, does not mean that it's never going to be. The latest update from the Tesla engineers is that FSD will actually be on the Cybertruck as soon as next month. If you'd argue that's TBD, I would say that's fair, but at least sometime in the back half of this year, that seems more likely than not. And it's a silly hypothetical, but even if FSD never made it to the Cybertruck, that doesn't necessarily mean that it can't ever go on any legacy OEMs cars either. That's just too big of a jump to make, because it could just be that the Cybertruck is a very specific build that doesn't allow it to have FSD again in this goofy hypothetical. And to use that argument to say that well, FSD can't be licensed to any other legacy OEM because of the Cybertruck situation seems like a foolish argument. And not that it wouldn't be without challenges and not that it wouldn't take a few years at a minimum, but it's not that it's impossible. So I'm pretty confident the Cybertruck will have FSD soon and eventually Tesla will indeed license FSD to at least one or two OEMs over the next five years.
好的,Kevin,首先,仅仅因为FSD目前还没有在Cybertruck上应用,并不意味着它将来也不会有。根据特斯拉工程师的最新更新,FSD实际上最早将在下个月应用到Cybertruck上。如果你认为这还不确定,我认为这也合理,但至少在今年下半年,这种可能性还是很大的。虽然这是一个假设性的问题,但即使FSD永远无法应用到Cybertruck上,这也不代表它不能应用到其他传统汽车制造商的车辆上。这种想法跳跃性太大了,因为原因可能只是Cybertruck这个特定的设计无法支持FSD。在这种假设下,用这个理由来说FSD不能被授权给其他传统汽车制造商是一个愚蠢的论点。当然,这并不是说没有挑战,也不是说不需要几年时间,但这并不是不可能的。所以我非常有信心,Cybertruck很快就会有FSD,而且未来五年内特斯拉确实会把FSD授权给至少一到两家传统汽车制造商。
Kevin also argued that as chip technology gets better and better from the likes of Nvidia, that's going to shrink Tesla's moat when it comes to FSD. He said it was because Tesla's competition can use these upgraded chips and use things like Nvidia's Orin to create their own FSD-like technology. In short, better chip technology would make Tesla's competitors more competitive when it comes to the autonomous driving race. One problem I have with that is Tesla is likely to buy Nvidia's next-gen chips whenever they come out if their engineering team decides that they think it's worth the upgrade or the addition to their current supercomputer. So it's not like Tesla's only going to use Nvidia H1 and 200 chips into perpetuity as time goes, they'll continually upgrade using the same chips that the competition is using. And second, I would argue even more importantly, you could have the most powerful supercomputer in the world with the best chips available, but if you don't have enough data and the right data to feed it, it's effectively rendered useless. We've learned from Tesla that setting up these super computers is no easy feat, it's not like you order the chips they show up and then you throw them online and everything's good to go in a couple of hours.
Kevin 还争辩说,随着像 Nvidia 这样的公司改进芯片技术,特斯拉在全自动驾驶(FSD)方面的护城河将会缩小。他说,这是因为特斯拉的竞争对手可以使用这些升级的芯片,并利用像 Nvidia 的 Orin 芯片来开发他们自己的类似 FSD 的技术。简而言之,更好的芯片技术会使特斯拉的竞争对手在自动驾驶竞赛中更具竞争力。我有的问题之一是,如果特斯拉的工程师团队认为值得升级或添加到他们当前的超级计算机中,那么特斯拉很可能会在新的英伟达芯片推出时购买。所以特斯拉不会永远只使用当前的 H1 和 200 芯片,他们会不断地使用竞争对手所用的相同芯片进行升级。其次,更重要的是,即使你拥有世界上最强大的超级计算机和最好的芯片,但如果没有足够的数据和正确的数据来供给它,实际上是无用的。我们从特斯拉学到,建立这些超级计算机并非易事,这不像是你订购芯片,芯片到货后立马就能上线并在几个小时内万事俱备。
So legacy OEMs, if they wanted to build their own supercomputers, they're going to have to hire entire teams that know how to do that. And then they have to retrofit or build their new vehicles with cameras and sensors to start feeding data into the system. So personally, I think Tesla's lead when it comes to solving for generalized autonomy anywhere in the world is continually growing and improvements in compute is only actually going to increase Tesla's edge in that it'll be a bigger benefit to Tesla than it is for the legacy OEMs that still have to figure out their entire blueprint for autonomous driving. Most of them aren't even trying at all. By and large, they're currently focused on level 3.
所以传统的原始设备制造商(OEM)如果想要打造自己的超级计算机,他们需要雇佣整个团队来解决这个问题。接着,他们还要改装或制造新车,配备摄像头和传感器,从而开始向系统输入数据。因此,我个人认为,就在全球范围内解决通用自动驾驶问题而言,特斯拉的领先优势在不断扩大,而计算能力的提升实际上只会进一步增加特斯拉的优势。这对特斯拉的好处要比对那些仍在摸索自动驾驶整体蓝图的传统制造商要大得多。大部分传统制造商目前甚至都没在尝试。他们主要还是集中在三级自动驾驶上。
In fairness, in Kevin's video, there were actually many points that I do agree with. One that he mentioned was Tesla should lower the price of FSD if not just include it outright with all new vehicles, the main reason being the network effect. That's why I've said it's fair to question why Tesla doesn't yet have a $25,000 vehicle on X. More Tesla's on the road means more people buying other Tesla products in the future and more people using and testing and talking about FSD. Would it be a hit to margins in the short term? Absolutely, but as we argued earlier this week, you can have lower margins and if those incentives drive enough incremental volume, you can end up with greater overall profits in the end, even with lower margins. But in the long term, Elon himself has said many times Tesla's value is all about autonomy. So the greater the network effect, the more Tesla's on the road, the more vehicles can flip that switch and become autonomous. And I can guarantee you if FSD was included with new vehicle purchases, many, many more people would be using it, testing it, gathering data, and talking about it with their circles.
公平地说,在凯文的视频中,确实有很多观点我是同意的。其中一个他提到的观点是,特斯拉应该降低完全自动驾驶(FSD)的价格,如果不能直接包含在所有新车中,主要原因是网络效应。这就是为什么我认为质疑特斯拉为什么还没有推出一款售价25000美元的车是合理的。更多的特斯拉上路意味着未来会有更多人购买其他特斯拉产品,更多人使用、测试和讨论FSD。
短期内这样做会对利润率造成冲击吗?绝对会。但正如我们本周早些时候所讨论的,你可以接受较低的利润率,如果这些激励措施能够推动足够的新增销量,最终即使利润率较低,你也可以获得更高的整体利润。但是从长远来看,埃隆自己已经多次表示,特斯拉的价值全在于自动驾驶。因此,网络效应越大,路上的特斯拉越多,更多的车辆就可以开启自动驾驶功能。我可以保证,如果FSD包含在新车购买中,会有更多人使用、测试、收集数据并在他们的圈子里讨论。
Like I said, there were many other things he said that I agreed with like Elon and Tesla pulling forward some demand right now with all of these incentives and low interest rate offers. And when the Fed does decide to lower rates, it may not have an outsized impact on Tesla sales because they're already offering great incentives when it comes to APRs. So Kevin, if you see this, it's all love my friend and ultimately, just for the good of the conversation and keeping everybody that listens informed and giving them the ability to hear two sides of an argument. Keep up the good work I've been following you now for years.
正如我之前所说,他提到的很多内容我都表示认同。比如说,埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉通过各种激励措施和低利率优惠来提前拉动一些需求。当美联储决定降息时,可能不会对特斯拉销售产生过大的影响,因为他们已经在提供很好的低息贷款优惠。所以,凯文,如果你看到这个,都是出于友好之意。最终,这只是为了促进讨论,让听众们能够了解并听到双方的观点。继续保持好工作,我已经关注你几年了。
This right here is the basement of the first house that Ashley and I ever bought just weeks after we closed. Had we been notified sooner that this was happening, we may have been able to avoid thousands of dollars of our stuff being ruined. A long story short, this jarring life event is what led me to doing a bunch of research and ultimately landing on Simply Safe for our home security system. Fast forward to today and they're the sponsor of this video. Here's how Simply Safe's water sensor could have saved us.
这是我和Ashley第一次购买的房子的地下室,几周前我们刚完成交易。如果我们能早点知道发生了什么,可能就不会有上千美元的东西被毁了。总之,这段令人震惊的经历促使我进行了大量研究,最终选择了Simply Safe作为我们的家庭安防系统。现在Simply Safe成为了这个视频的赞助商。下面我来讲讲Simply Safe的水传感器是如何能够帮我们避免损失的。
Ok, alerts notifications. Alarm off. One thing I love about Simply Safe is you can arm and disarm the system from your cell phone where you can see all of the notifications and everything going on or you can use the key pad. Now a lot of people will put these stationary in their house, but Ashley and I like to have them mobile so we can move them around the house as we see fit. Check out what the wired indoor camera has done for my life. The days of Ashley trying to sneak by my office undetected with all of her shopping bags are officially over. Thanks to Simply Safe.
好的,警报通知已关闭。我非常喜欢Simply Safe的一点是,你可以通过手机装备和解除警报系统,你可以看到所有通知和情况,或者你也可以使用键盘控制。很多人会把这些设备固定在家中,但我和Ashley喜欢把它们做成可以移动的,这样我们可以根据需要在家中移动它们。看看有线的室内摄像头给我的生活带来了什么改变。Ashley偷偷拎着购物袋走过我办公室的日子正式结束了,这都要感谢Simply Safe。
Simply Safe has a variety of packages with everything you could want, base station keypads, motion sensors, entry sensors, panic buttons, temperature sensors, water sensors, key fobs, sirens, smoke detectors, indoor and outdoor cameras, etc. And unlike traditional home security systems, you're never locked into a long term contract. Plus with their 24-7 Live Guard protection, Simply Safe agents can act within five seconds of receiving your alarm and they can speak to intruders in real time. The pricing is transparent and affordable starting at less than a dollar a day with no hidden fees which is less than half the cost of traditional security systems. And don't sleep on the Simply part of the name as I had the entire system unboxed, set up and running in less than 45 minutes by myself. You can save 20% off your Simply Safe security system when you sign up for a fast protect monitoring plan and you'll get your first month free. You can check out simplysafe.com slash electrified links below to customize yours and I really have found the saying to be true. There's no safe like Simply Safe.
Simply Safe有多种套餐,包含你可能需要的一切:基站键盘、运动传感器、入户传感器、紧急按钮、温度传感器、水传感器、钥匙扣、警报器、烟雾探测器、室内外摄像头等。而且,与传统家庭安防系统不同,你不需要签订长期合同。再加上他们提供的24/7全天候实时保护服务,Simply Safe的工作人员在接收到警报后的五秒内就能采取行动,并能实时与入侵者对话。定价透明且实惠,每天不到一美元,没有隐藏费用,这比传统的安防系统便宜一半以上。名字中的"Simply"也确实名副其实——我自己在不到45分钟内就完成了整个系统的拆箱、设置和运行。你可以通过订阅快速保护监控计划来节省20%的Simply Safe安防系统费用,并且第一个月免费。你可以访问simplysafe.com/electrified的链接进行定制。我发现这句口号真的很贴切:没有什么比Simply Safe更安全的。
Chuck Cook shared that after weeks and I believe after months of trying to get his power share set up and installed, he's still working on it. Many owners that have already had their power share installations done still don't have any of the functionality through the app or the truck. The cyber truck program manager said process is improving every week but here's the required configuration of software versions. If you're out there and you have problems, you can reach out to the team at powersharesupportnaattesla.com. A silver lining is that some cyber truck users do have power share installed and they have the software updated and working. But there's some others that have had their equipment installed for over two months and it's still not activated. There's certainly a wide spectrum out there and yes, ideally this would have been a much smoother rollout but these are some of the things there's a chance you're going to encounter as an early adopter.
查克·库克(Chuck Cook)表示,经过几周甚至几个月的努力,他仍在尝试设置和安装他的电力共享系统。许多已完成电力共享安装的车主仍然无法通过应用程序或卡车使用任何功能。赛博卡车项目经理说这个过程每周都在改进,但需要特定的软件版本配置。如果你遇到问题,可以通过powersharesupportnaattesla.com联系团队。值得安慰的是,一些赛博卡车用户已经安装了电力共享系统,并且他们的软件已更新并正常工作。但也有一些用户,他们的设备安装了两个月以上仍未激活。情况确实有很大差异,理想情况下这个过程应该更顺利,但作为早期采用者,这些问题是有可能遇到的。
Shout out to Jan of the EV universe, he's been putting together some great data when it comes to global full EV sales and I love that he does not include data for hybrids. I'd encourage you to check him out. He does have a newsletter and I'll have that linked below if you're interested. In the first half of this year, over 4.5 million full BEVs were sold around the world. That number was up 12.4% compared to the first half of last year. During that time, 36 markets saw EV sales grow while 16 markets saw a decline. The global BEV market shared during that time was 12%. In other words, every 9th vehicle sold in the world was fully electric. Of course, for all light duty vehicles.
向电动汽车领域的Jan致敬,他在全球纯电动汽车销售数据方面做得非常出色,而且他只关注纯电动车的数据,不包括混合动力车。我非常喜欢他的这种做法。我鼓励你去了解一下他。他有一个新闻通讯,如果你感兴趣,我会在下面附上链接。
今年上半年,全球共售出了超过450万辆纯电动汽车。这个数字比去年上半年增长了12.4%。在此期间,36个市场的电动汽车销售增长,而16个市场则出现了下降。全球纯电动车市占率达到12%。换句话说,全球每卖出9辆车,就有1辆是纯电动车。当然,这里指的是所有轻型车辆。
Looking at BEV growth rates by region for the first half of the year, year over year, China was up 13.5%, Europe was up 1.6% and the USA was up 7.4%. The rest of the world though, up 40.1%. Of the EVs sold, 54.6% were in China, 20.8% were in Europe, 13.1% in the US and 11.5% in the rest of the world. For the best selling EVs in the first half of the year, across China, Europe and the US, the Model Y in the number one spot, the Model 3 takes the number two spot in both Europe and the USA. Number two in China is the BYDC goal and number three, the BYD 1 plus. Again though, this is only the full BEVs. He does not include data for hybrids. In Europe, the third best seller was Volvos EX30 and in the USA, it was the Machi. There's plenty more data, but again, I'll have this linked below. I just really like the way he puts everything together and how he excludes data for hybrids. So despite what the media would have, you believe full BEV sales around the world in the first half of this year are still growing at 12.4%. So it's not 30, 40, 50% like many of us would like to see, but it's not zero or negative either.
看一下今年上半年各地区纯电动汽车(BEV)的增长率,同比,中国增长了13.5%,欧洲增长了1.6%,美国增长了7.4%。但世界其他地区的增长达到了40.1%。在售出的电动汽车中,54.6%在中国,20.8%在欧洲,13.1%在美国,剩下的11.5%在世界其他地区。
在上半年最畅销的电动汽车中,无论是在中国、欧洲还是美国,排名第一的都是Model Y。在欧洲和美国,Model 3排名第二。在中国,排名第二的是比亚迪的目标(BYDC goal),排名第三的是比亚迪1加(BYD 1 plus)。需要注意的是,这些数据仅包括全电动汽车(BEV),不包括混合动力汽车的数据。在欧洲,第三畅销的是沃尔沃的EX30,而在美国是Mach-E。
还有很多数据,不过我会在下面提供链接。我特别喜欢他整理数据的方式,并且他排除了混合动力汽车的数据。所以,不管媒体怎么说,今年上半年全球的纯电动汽车销售仍在以12.4%的速度增长。虽然不像我们希望的30%、40%或50%那么高,但也不是零增长或负增长。
I'm sure many of you have seen this already, but Sawyer found this on Instagram, somebody with a Cybertruck out on the road with a dryer strapped to the back and running from the power of the Cybertruck. So if you want to talk about 4D chess when it comes to marketing, I think this handyman popping his number on the back of the Cybertruck with this setup is up there with the best. On X, Phil Truby shared a post about Dojo and the Hotchips Conference we talked about yesterday. Some good additions to what I said yesterday, Phil said Tesla's working on Dojo V2 and they have plans for Dojo V3. By the way, he did watch the full conference live. I did talk about the improved latency, but Phil put some numbers on it. He has Tesla's protocol at .0013ms. Compare that to Nvidia's NV link at .0023ms and then the TCP IP up at .53ms. Tesla's protocol over ethernet nearly twice as fast as the option from Nvidia.
我相信你们中的许多人已经看过这个了,但Sawyer在Instagram上发现了一个视频,有个人把一台烘干机绑在Cybertruck的后面并利用Cybertruck的电源运行。如果你想谈论营销方面的高招,我认为这个手艺人把自己的电话号码贴在这种设置的Cybertruck后面,绝对是顶级水平。
在X平台上,Phil Truby分享了有关我们昨天讨论的Dojo和Hotchips会议的帖子。对我昨天说的内容进行了一些补充。Phil提到,Tesla正在研发Dojo V2,并且已经有Dojo V3的计划。顺便说一句,他确实观看了整个会议直播。我谈到了改进的延迟问题,但Phil给出了具体数字。他表示Tesla的协议延迟为0.0013毫秒,相比之下,Nvidia的NV link延迟为0.0023毫秒,而TCP/IP的延迟则高达0.53毫秒。Tesla的协议通过以太网几乎是Nvidia选项的两倍快。
For what it's worth, he did say Dojo is very, very cost competitive to Nvidia, but he did not share any data and I haven't found the link for the full live stream so I can't confirm that. But this latency data was shared in some of the slides that were made public. So Tesla's protocol over ethernet, which is purpose built for ethernet connected compute, is certainly something to stow away for the months and years ahead. Share this with anybody you know out in Colorado, there's currently up to $18,500 in incentives available in the state if you buy an EV. This British organization Whatcar, which has been in operation for over five decades, is one of the biggest car buying brands in the UK. They just released their electric car awards for 2024 and the best electric executive car went to the new Tesla Model 3. Further in both the new and the used category the Model 3 was best in class. Whatcar has also said the Model Y long range was the best family electric SUV for long trips and that the Tesla Supercharger Network won the Technology Award due to its reliability and ease of use. If you'd like to see the winners of the other categories, I'll have this link below.
就其价值而言,他确实说过Dojo与英伟达相比在成本上非常有竞争力,但他并没有分享任何数据,我也没有找到完整直播的链接,所以无法确认这一点。不过,一些公开的幻灯片中确实分享了这方面的延迟数据。因此,特斯拉的以太网协议,专为以太网连接计算而定制,在未来几个月和几年中肯定值得关注。请把这个信息分享给你在科罗拉多州的任何朋友,目前如果你购买电动车,州里有高达18,500美元的激励措施。英国的Whatcar组织已经运行超过五十年,是英国最大的购车品牌之一。他们刚刚发布了2024年的电动车奖项,最佳电动行政轿车奖颁给了新的特斯拉Model 3。另外,在新车和二手车类别中,Model 3都被评为最佳。同样,Whatcar还表示Model Y长续航版是长途旅行的最佳家庭电动SUV,并且特斯拉超级充电网络因其可靠性和易用性获得了技术奖。如果你想了解其他类别的获奖者,可以点击下面的链接查看。
Finally, after two years, some states are actually moving when it comes to putting these nevy funds to good use for EV charging. The Arizona Department of Transportation has selected firms to build 18 fast charging stations. They did say construction is expected to take a year to complete after the contracts are signed, but some stations are set to open late 2025. Most of these will be located at existing gas stations and travel centers, with some at restaurants or hotels. But the deal breaker here, if you ask me and the main reason I wanted to share, these stations will be equipped with CCS plugs. Somebody explained to me why every government program gets stuck in the past. Nearly all of the EV industry has already chosen to move to NACS for the future. I mean, even if you wanted to do half NACS and half CCS, I guess I would understand as we go through this bridge period, but all CCS just makes no sense. Every station will include at least four nevy compliant chargers, with some having as many as seven.
最后,经过两年,一些州终于在有效利用这笔新资金用于电动汽车充电方面开始行动了。亚利桑那州交通运输部已经选定了几家公司来建设18个快速充电站。他们表示,合同签署后,预计建设工作将需要一年完成,但一些充电站计划在2025年年底前开放。大多数充电站将位于现有的加油站和旅行中心,少数则位于餐馆或酒店。
然而,如果你问我的话,这里有一个决定性的因素,也是我主要想分享的原因,这些充电站将配备CCS插头。有人向我解释为什么每个政府项目总是停留在过去。几乎所有电动汽车行业已经选择转向NACS作为未来标准。即使你想做一半NACS和一半CCS,我也可以理解,因为这是个过渡期,但全部使用CCS实在没道理。每个充电站将至少包括四个符合新标准的充电器,一些充电站则会有多达七个充电器。
GM has decided to delay the start of production at its planned battery plant in Indiana by roughly one year back to 2027. However, as part of this announcement, they did say they formalized the plans to move forward with this $3.5 billion factory in New Carlisle, Indiana. Don't forget GM already operates two joint venture battery plants in the US with LG in both Ohio and Tennessee. And those two through the Altium platform have a third one that's supposed to begin construction on sales by the end of this year in Michigan. Given GM's very slow rollout of Altium-based EVs, this delay really should come as a surprise to no one, but this factory in Indiana is expected to account for about 20% of GM's battery capacity in the US when it's actually up and running.
通用汽车公司(GM)决定将其在印第安纳州计划中的电池工厂的生产开始时间推迟约一年,延后至2027年。但是,在这个公告中,他们也表示已经正式确定继续推进这座耗资35亿美元的工厂建设,地点在新卡莱尔,印第安纳州。别忘了,通用汽车已经在美国与LG公司共同运营了两家合资电池工厂,分别位于俄亥俄州和田纳西州。而通过Altium平台,这两家公司在密歇根州的第三家工厂计划在今年底前开始建设。考虑到通用基于Altium平台的电动汽车推出速度非常缓慢,这次延期应该不会让任何人感到惊讶。不过,这座位于印第安纳州的工厂一旦投入运营,预计将占通用公司在美国电池产能的约20%。
Every now and then, I'd like to check in on BYD's profit and for quarter to BYD's net profit hit $1.3 billion. I would note in this article, they shared BYD's gross margin of 23.9%, but that's not necessarily their auto gross margin, because in that figure, they include sales of autos and related products. For comparison, Tesla's net income in quarter two was $1.8 billion. Just a fun fact, over half of the cars sold in China are priced under $21,000. And BYD's global expansion is on overseas shipments accounted for 11.9% of BYD's total car sales in the first seven months of the year, nearly doubled the number for the same period last year. Now, without subsidies, would BYD still be profitable? It's a fair question. But look, in fairness, Tesla's benefiting from subsidies as well, so its profitability would also be lower without subsidies.
时不时地,我会查看比亚迪的利润情况。在这个季度,比亚迪的净利润达到了13亿美元。值得注意的是,这篇文章中提到比亚迪的毛利率为23.9%,但这并不一定是他们汽车的毛利率,因为这个数据包含了汽车及相关产品的销售。相比之下,特斯拉在第二季度的净收入为18亿美元。有趣的是,在中国销售的汽车中,有一半以上的售价低于21,000美元。此外,比亚迪在全球的扩展也在进行,今年前七个月中,比亚迪海外出货量占总销量的11.9%,几乎是去年同期的两倍。现在,有一个问题是,如果没有补贴,比亚迪还会盈利吗?这是一个公平的问题。但是,就事论事,特斯拉也同样受益于补贴,没有补贴的话,其盈利能力也会降低。
Polestar just put out a press release saying that former CEO Thomas Ingenloth has resigned from the company. That will be effective October 1st of this year. And Michael Oshler, who has previously served as CEO of Opelvenfast and Nikola, brings a wealth of experience to be the new CEO of Polestar. Ingenloth said, I'm very proud of what we've achieved together in the last seven years. We made Polestar the only true global premium electric brand. I wish Michael and the team the best for the next chapter of Polestar. I guess it's not a major surprise. The past few months have been quite challenging for Polestar. Volvo divested most of its ownership. Polestar has gone to banks for loans. They've had layoffs. They're focused on other cost cutting measures, which is a bummer because Polestar is my second favorite EV brand behind Tesla. I love their design and styling, but I think their cars are too expensive. And they're just not widely known in markets like the United States.
极星刚刚发布新闻稿,表示前 CEO 托马斯·英格拉特(Thomas Ingenlath)已辞职,并将于今年 10 月 1 日生效。而曾任欧宝(Opel)、VinFast 和尼古拉(Nikola)公司 CEO 的迈克尔·奥斯勒(Michael Oshler)将担任极星的新任 CEO,他将为公司带来丰富经验。英格拉特说:“我为过去七年我们共同取得的成就感到非常自豪。我们让极星成为了唯一真正的全球高端电动品牌。希望迈克尔和团队能在极星的下一个篇章中取得成功。”我猜这并不令人意外,过去几个月对极星来说相当具有挑战性。沃尔沃出售了他们的大部分股份,极星向银行贷款,还进行了裁员,并专注于其他削减成本的措施。这令人遗憾,因为极星是我仅次于特斯拉的第二喜欢的电动汽车品牌。我很喜欢他们的设计和造型,但我认为他们的车太贵了,而且在像美国这样的市场上知名度不高。
China's state media is obviously not happy with Canada. They just came out and criticized Canada over the 100% EV tariffs for imports from China. It said Canada is shooting itself in the foot by following the US protectionist policies. The country is being held hostage by America's unhealthy policies that will only create more barriers to free market circulation, leading to deeper negative impacts and unforeseen shocks on the domestic economy. China's Ministry of Commerce has also said that the move was a typical act of trade protectionism, and that Canada blatantly violated WTO rules and blindly followed certain other countries, namely the United States. China will likely challenge this move through the world trade organization like they have with the United States and Europe's moves, but that could take one to two years to play out.
中国的官方媒体显然对加拿大不满。他们刚刚出来批评加拿大对从中国进口的电动车征收100%的关税,并表示加拿大在追随美国的保护主义政策,这是在自讨苦吃。媒体指出,加拿大被美国不健康的政策所挟持,这些政策只会制造更多的自由市场流通障碍,对国内经济产生更深的负面影响和无法预见的冲击。中国商务部也表示,此举是典型的贸易保护主义行为,加拿大公然违反世贸组织规则,盲目追随其他国家,尤其是美国。中国可能会像对待美国和欧洲的类似措施一样,通过世贸组织来挑战这一举动,但这可能需要一到两年的时间才能见效。
In a first for Tesla, the city of Menlo Park put out this staff report, ultimately saying that they don't believe Tesla vehicles are the police cars of the future. To my knowledge, this would be the first time that a police department has not given positive reviews about the Model Y for its police fleet. This department in California said midway through this EV pilot for their fleet, two officers requested to be reassigned, citing a number of safety concerns with the vehicles. Officers using the Model Y's appreciated the acceleration, steering and vehicle speed compared to the hybrids, and remaining gas only patrol vehicles. However, the Tesla presented challenges due to the small interior space, the smart car features, and the low vehicle profile, limiting maneuverability.
作为特斯拉的首例,门洛帕克市发布了一份员工报告,最终表示他们不认为特斯拉车辆是未来的警车。据我所知,这是第一次有警察部门对特斯拉Model Y的警车车队给出负面评价。这个位于加利福尼亚的部门表示,在他们车队中途试用电动车时,两名警察要求调离,原因是对车辆的多项安全问题表示担忧。使用Model Y的警察们认可其在加速、转向和车速方面相比混合动力和纯汽油巡逻车有所优势。然而,特斯拉也存在一些挑战,比如内部空间狭小、智能汽车功能复杂以及车身低矮,导致操作灵活性受限。
The long range Model Y was chosen for the pilot over the Mach-E and other EVs due to the advertised range and the larger size. But once the Tesla was outfitted for patrol use, the partition between the front and the back seat limits the room in the front. When it comes to storage, some officers said they preferred the storage of the hybrid Ford Explorers. The Tesla does have a number of unique storage spaces including the front trunk and the under trunk storage, but they're more difficult to access. Here's a list of some of the smart car challenges they listed, I won't cover all of them, but they did talk about specifically the lighting controls and proximity locking.
由于宣传的续航里程和较大的尺寸,长续航版的Model Y在试点中被选中,而不是马赫-E和其他电动车。然而,当特斯拉被改装用于巡逻后,前座和后座之间的隔板限制了前排的空间。在储物方面,一些警官表示他们更喜欢混合动力版福特探险者的储物空间。特斯拉确实有一些独特的储物空间,包括前行李箱和后备箱下的储物空间,但它们更难访问。下面是一些他们列出的智能汽车挑战列表,我不会全部覆盖,但他们特别提到了照明控制和接近锁定功能的挑战。
The chart they shared was quite interesting comparing the hybrid Ford Explorer to the 2022 long range Model Y. As we talked about earlier, prices for Tesla back then were much higher unfortunately. You may notice the zero dollars for the ballistic panels on the hybrid Ford Explorer compared to $7500 for the Model Y. That's because the hybrid Ford Explorers can be upfitted to include ballistic door panels from the manufacturer, whereas the Teslas had to be sent to an additional outfitter. They said the total cost after outfitting for the hybrid Ford Explorer was over $7700, whereas for the Model Y was over $102,000.
他们分享的图表非常有意思,对比了混合动力福特探索者与2022款长续航特斯拉Model Y。正如我们之前讨论的,当时特斯拉的价格非常高。你可能会注意到,混合动力福特探索者的防弹板费用是零,而Model Y的费用是$7500。这是因为混合动力福特探索者可以直接从制造商处升级安装防弹门板,而特斯拉则需要额外送到改装厂。他们说,混合动力福特探索者改装后的总费用超过$7700,而Model Y的总费用超过$102,000。
Again though, my problem here is that if you run these numbers again with the prices of 2024 Model Y, it's going to be drastically different. I'd also note they shared the Tesla pilot revealed that the 7 kilowatt level 2 chargers would take about 11 hours to fully charge the Model Y. Thus, question number 1 becomes why are you using a 7 kilowatt charger? Toward the end, they said the police department has shared the Teslas are useful within the department for patrol and non-patrol operations, but do not appear to be the patrol cars of the future in their current configuration.
不过,我的问题是,如果你用2024年Model Y的价格来重新计算这些数据,结果会有很大不同。我还要指出,他们分享的特斯拉试点项目显示,使用7千瓦的二级充电器需要大约11小时才能完全充满Model Y。因此,第一个问题是,为什么要使用7千瓦的充电器?最后,他们说警察部门表示,特斯拉在部门内用于巡逻和非巡逻任务都很有用,但以目前的配置来看,它们似乎并不是未来的巡逻车。
The department is hoping to deploy a Chevy Blazer EV as the next stage of this pilot by early 2025. In short, it largely came down to bad timing of the purchase of the Model Y's, and then what it took to outfit the vehicle for their specific needs and how the car would operate after the outfitting. Plus, some of the tech features in the Model Y weren't overly conducive again to their specific use cases. And here they outlined some of the challenges without fitting the Tesla that could be helpful to Tesla in the future, so hopefully somebody at the company sees this for the future.
该部门希望在2025年初,将一辆雪佛兰 Blazer 电动车作为这个试点项目的下一阶段。简而言之,主要问题是购买Model Y 时机不好,以及改装车辆以满足他们特定需求所需的时间和费用。此外,Model Y的一些技术功能也不太适合他们的特定使用场景。这里他们详细说明了改装特斯拉时遇到的一些挑战,这些反馈或许对特斯拉未来的发展有帮助,希望公司里有人看到这些建议。
I won't at all be surprised if the city of Menlo Park ends up swinging back around to a Tesla Model Y for its fleet in the future, especially if prices continued to come down. This was actually a pretty interesting read though, it's only 7 pages so I'll have it linked below. Tesla stock closed the day at $205.75 down 1.68% while the Nasdaq was down 1.12%. Polestar was down over 16% on the news of Ingenlot leaving. There was another quiet volume day for Tesla trading about 22 million shares below the average volume the past 30 days. Don't forget, check out Simply Safe linked below, take advantage of that discount if you're interested. It's a very modular system, you can start small, make sure you like it, and enjoy the UI, and you can always build on from there.
我一点也不会惊讶,如果未来门洛帕克市决定重新选择特斯拉Model Y作为其车队,尤其是在价格继续下降的情况下。虽然这篇文章只有7页,但读起来还蛮有意思的,我会把链接放在下面。特斯拉的股票今天收于205.75美元,下跌1.68%,而纳斯达克下跌了1.12%。在Ingenlot离职的消息传出后,Polestar下跌超过16%。今天特斯拉的交易量相对平静,大约有2200万股,低于过去30天的平均交易量。别忘了,看看下面链接的Simply Safe,有兴趣的话可以利用那个折扣。这是一个非常模块化的系统,你可以从小规模开始,确保它适合你,享受它的用户界面,并且你随时可以在此基础上扩展。
And truly, so far I've been very pleased with it. I hope you guys have a wonderful day, please like the video if you did, you can find me on X-Link's below, and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.
到目前为止,我对它非常满意。希望你们度过愉快的一天。如果你喜欢这个视频,请点赞。你可以在下方的链接找到我。同时,非常感谢所有支持我的Patreon赞助者。