Dry Cathode Finally Solved! What was the delay? // Tesla Q2 Battery Report

Welcome back everyone, I'm Jordan Geisigee and this is The Limiting Factor. In Tesla's Q2 2024 earnings call, they indicated that they may have finally solved the dry electrode coating process for the cathode of their 4680 battery cells. Now that that information is public, Joe Techmyer has released an image that shows a damaged cathode roller for Tesla's dry coating process. This photo may provide some clues as to what's been causing delays for Tesla in the past three years since they first mentioned issues with the cathode coating process. So today I'll walk you through all the battery related comments on the earnings call as well as do some analysis on the photo of the cathode roller.

欢迎回来，各位！我是乔丹·盖西吉，这是"限制因素"节目。在特斯拉2024年第二季度的财报电话会议上，他们表示可能终于解决了4680电池单元阴极的干电极涂层工艺问题。现在这个消息已经公开，乔·特克迈尔发布了一张显示特斯拉干涂层工艺中受损阴极辊的图片。这张照片可能提供了一些线索，揭示过去三年来特斯拉在阴极涂层工艺上遇到的延误原因。因此，今天我将带您了解财报电话会议上所有与电池相关的评论，并对阴极辊的照片进行一些分析。

Before we begin, a special thanks to my Patreon supporters, YouTube members and Twitter subscribers as well as Rebellionair.com. They specialize in helping investors manage concentrated positions. Rebellionair can help with covered calls, risk management and creating a money master plan from your financial first principles. The first comment about the 4680 was from Lars Moravie who said, quote, 4680 production ramped strongly in Q2 delivering 51% more sales than Q1 while reducing cogs significantly. We currently produce more than 1400 Cybertrucks of 4680 cells a week. We'll continue to ramp upward as we drive costs down further toward the cost parity target we set for the end of the year. End quote.

在我们开始之前，特别感谢我的Patreon支持者、YouTube会员和Twitter订阅者，以及Rebellionair.com。他们专门帮助投资者管理集中持股。Rebellionair可以帮助处理备兑期权、风险管理，并根据您的财务基本原则创建一个理财大师计划。 关于4680电池的第一个评论来自Lars Moravie，他说，引用：“4680电池在第二季度的产量大幅提升，销量比第一季度增加了51%，同时显著降低了成本。我们目前每周生产超过1400辆搭载4680电池的Cybertrucks。我们将继续提升产量，进一步降低成本，朝着年终设定的成本平价目标迈进。”结束引用。

The key takeaway here is that Tesla's 4680 cells are now at a run rate of about 9 gigawatt hours per year, which is based on a pack size of 123 kilowatt hours of usable energy capacity in each Cybertruck. But that 9 gigawatt hour figure of course comes with some caveats. First, we don't know how many production lines are involved in making those battery cells, which could have a big impact on unit cost. Second, all the information we have so far indicates that all of the cathode material for those battery cells comes from external suppliers, which means a big cost premium.

关键点是，特斯拉的4680电池现在的年生产速度大约是9吉瓦时，这是基于每辆Cybertruck的电池包可用能量容量为123千瓦时计算得出的。然而，这个9吉瓦时的数字当然有一些附加条件。首先，我们不知道有多少条生产线参与了这些电池的制造，这可能对单位成本产生重大影响。其次，目前已有的信息表明，这些电池的所有阴极材料都来自外部供应商，这意味着成本会大幅增加。

Despite those costs, Tesla expects their in-house 4680 cells to reach cost parity with cells from external suppliers by the end of the year. That expectation appears to be independent of progress with the dry-coated cathode. Why do I say that? First, because although Tesla's paying a premium for wet-coated cathode material sourced from external suppliers, the rest of the cell is made in-house, which means that for most of the battery cell, around two-thirds or so, they're saving on production and logistics costs and profit margins paid to third-party suppliers.

尽管成本很高，特斯拉预计他们自主生产的4680电池将在年底前与外部供应商提供的电池达到成本平价。这个预期似乎与干涂层阴极的进展无关。为什么我这么说？首先，尽管特斯拉为从外部供应商获取的湿涂层阴极材料支付了溢价，但电池的其余部分是在内部生产的，这意味着电池中大约三分之二的部分是在节省生产和物流成本以及支付给第三方供应商的利润。

Second, because Lars' next comment was, quote, we've built our first validation Cybertruck with a dry cathode process made on mass production equipment, which is a huge technical milestone and we're super proud of that. We're on track for production launch with the dry cathode in Q4, and this will enable self-cost to be significantly below available alternatives, which was the original goal of the 4680 program. End quote. As a side note, if you're curious about the validation Cybertruck Lars is talking about, we actually have a photo of it, which is on screen.

其次，因为 Lars 接下来的评论是：“我们已经用大规模生产设备制造了首辆使用干电极工艺的验证版 Cybertruck，这是一个巨大的技术里程碑，我们对此非常自豪。我们在第四季度使用干电极工艺进行生产启动的计划进展顺利，这将使我们的成本显著低于现有的替代方案，这也是 4680 计划的初衷。” 顺便提一下，如果你对 Lars 提到的验证版 Cybertruck 感兴趣，我们实际上有它的照片，正在屏幕上显示。

As for cost, if the production launch of the 4680 is in Q4, it's unlikely those battery cells will hit high production volumes in that quarter, and because low volumes mean high costs, I don't think that the 4680 cells using a dry coating process for both electrodes will contribute to cost savings in the 4680 by the end of the year. In the longer term, yes, but not in the same quarter production starts, which reinforces my view that Tesla should be on track to hit their cost targets even without the dry cathode 4680 cells by the end of the year. Either way, the main headline here is that nearly four years after battery day, we're finally seeing dry cathode 4680 cells in the final stages of validation in a production vehicle.

关于成本问题，如果4680电池在第四季度投入生产，那么在那个季度内，这些电池单元不太可能达到高产量。而由于低产量意味着高成本，我认为年底之前使用干涂工艺生产电极的4680电池无法实现成本节约。从长期来看，确实有可能实现成本下降，但不会是在生产刚开始的那个季度，这也强化了我的观点，即使到今年年底没有干阴极4680电池，特斯拉也能够实现他们的成本目标。无论如何，这里最重要的消息是，电池日将近四年后，干阴极4680电池终于在生产车辆中进入了最终验证阶段。

On that note, let's take a closer look at Lars' comment about Cybertruck validation and mass production equipment. In the past, Tesla was able to produce dry-coated cathode on their pilot scale equipment at their Kato Road facility. Then issues started arising when they tried to move to larger commercial scale equipment at Austin. Now that they're able to produce fully validated cells on that equipment, the next step is to test those cells in a battery pack and vehicle to ensure that they continue to perform as expected. That's because assembling the cells into the pack can damage the cells, and because unexpected issues can arise in real-world usage that don't show up in the lab. Furthermore, besides internal validation, Tesla also likely needs test data and specs for EPA or other regulatory documentation before the pack goes into mass production.

在这个背景下，我们来仔细看看Lars关于Cybertruck验证和大规模生产设备的评论。过去，特斯拉曾在其Kato Road设施的试验规模设备上成功生产了干涂覆的阴极材料。然后，当他们尝试转向奥斯汀的更大商业规模设备时，问题开始出现。现在他们已经能够在这些设备上生产完全验证的电池，下一步是将这些电池测试于电池组和车辆中，以确保它们继续按预期表现。这是因为将电池组装成电池包可能会损坏电池，并且在实际使用中可能会出现实验室里没遇到的意外问题。此外，除了内部验证之外，特斯拉可能还需要为EPA或其他监管文件提供测试数据和规格，才能进入大规模生产阶段。

I'm assuming the validation pack that's being tested in the Cybertruck would provide that. If you know something about pack validation, let us know in the comments below. As a side note, this new Cybertruck battery pack could have lower, higher, or similar energy capacity than the existing Cybertruck battery pack. My bet would be on similar or lower energy capacity than the existing Cybertruck battery pack. That's because I expect Tesla will try to de-risk the production ramp of the dry cathode 4680.

我假设正在Cybertruck上测试的电池验证包能提供这样的功能。如果你了解关于电池验证的信息，请在下方评论告诉我们。顺便提一句，这款新的Cybertruck电池包的能量容量可能比现有的电池包低、更高或相似。不过我猜它的能源容量会和现有的电池包相似或更低。这是因为我预计特斯拉会尝试降低生产干法电极4680电池的风险。

That means swapping out the wet-coated cathode for dry and avoiding any other major chemistry changes like increased silicon content in the anode. A battery pack with the same or lower energy capacity also works on a product level because if the energy density of the new, dry cathode battery packs are the same, then Tesla can use the packs interchangeably with the current battery packs. And if they decide to make a lower energy capacity battery pack with fewer cells, they could start offering a shorter range version of the Cybertruck. With that said, the demand for the dual and trimotor versions of the Cybertruck seems to be strong, so I'd be surprised if they offer a shorter range version by late this year or early next year.

这意味着用干式涂层的正极替换掉湿涂层的正极，并且避免在其他主要化学成分上进行任何大的改动，比如增加负极中的硅含量。在产品层面上，一个具有相同或较低能量容量的电池组也是可行的，因为如果新的干式正极电池组的能量密度相同，特斯拉就可以将这些电池组与目前的电池组互换使用。而如果他们决定制造一个能量容量较低的电池组，拥有更少的电芯，他们就可以开始提供一个续航里程较短的Cybertruck版本。话虽如此，双电机和三电机版本Cybertruck的需求似乎很强劲，所以如果在今年年底或明年年初推出一个续航里程较短的版本，我会感到惊讶。

That means for me, a battery pack with the same or similar energy density is the most likely option. If Tesla wanted to introduce a battery pack with higher energy capacity, it would require risky chemistry and design changes to increase the energy density of the 4680 cell, and or it would require an upgraded pack design, which would still be a stretch but more likely. These changes or upgrades would need to be significant enough to justify a new trim level. Just a guess, but I would expect a Cybertruck with a new, longer range battery pack would need to offer at least 10-15% more range than the current Cybertruck for people to pay a premium for the vehicle.

这对我来说意味着，拥有相同或类似能量密度的电池组是最有可能的选项。如果特斯拉想推出一个能量容量更高的电池组，他们需要对4680电池的化学成分和设计进行高风险的改动，以提高能量密度，或者需要升级电池组的设计，尽管这仍然有一定难度，但更有可能实现。这些改动或升级必须足够显著，才能证明推出一个新车型是合理的。只是一个猜测，但我认为一款配备新型长续航电池组的Cybertruck必须比现有的Cybertruck续航至少提高10-15%，才能让消费者愿意为这款车支付更高的价格。

That could happen, and if it does, I'd be blown away, but I'm tempering my expectations. That's because the most important goal for Tesla to achieve with the new Cybertruck battery pack is increased production volumes to drive down costs. And so I expect that's what Tesla's focus will be. Let's move on to the last comment from Tesla on the 4680, and then close things out by doing some analysis on the photo of the cathode roller. The stock analyst Colin Rush asked, quote, on rollout of the 4680 process technology and the roll-to-roll process, there's some news around your equipment suppliers. Can you talk about how far along you were and potentially qualifying an incremental supplier around some of those critical process technology steps? End quote.

这可能会发生，如果真的发生了，我会感到非常惊讶，但我在调整自己的期望。这是因为特斯拉在新款Cybertruck电池组中最重要的目标是增加生产量以降低成本。所以我预计这会是特斯拉的重点。让我们继续讨论特斯拉关于4680电池的最后一个评论，然后通过分析阴极滚筒的照片来结束这个话题。股票分析师科林·拉什问道，引用，关于4680工艺技术和卷对卷工艺的推广，有一些关于你们设备供应商的新闻。你能谈谈你们在这方面的进展以及是否有可能在关键工艺技术步骤中再引入一个增量供应商吗？言毕。

Lars responded, quote, you're probably referring to the lawsuit that we have with one of our suppliers. Look, I don't think this is going to affect our ability to roll out 4680. We have a very strong IP position in the technology, and the majority of the equipment that we use is in-house design, and some of it is in-house build. And so we can take our IP stack and have someone else build it if we need to. So that's not really a concern right now. End quote. In my view, and I could be wrong, there appeared to be some crossed wires here between Colin Rush and Lars.

Lars 回应说：“你可能指的是我们与某个供应商之间的诉讼。看，我认为这不会影响我们推出 4680 的能力。我们在这项技术上拥有很强的知识产权地位，大部分设备都是内部设计的，有些甚至是内部制造的。因此，我们可以利用我们的知识产权堆栈，必要时找其他人来制造。所以这目前并不是什么值得担心的问题。” 在我看来，尽管我可能有误解，Colin Rush 和 Lars 之间似乎存在一些沟通不畅的问题。

I think Colin was asking about a report out of Korea, where a company called PNT claimed that Tesla needed a supplier that could deliver larger volumes of production equipment to expand 4680 production. And PNT would be that supplier. That's because Tesla's current supplier, Sauer S.S.G. of Germany, couldn't provide enough equipment. In response, Lars brought up a lawsuit Tesla recently filed against Matthews International for Trade Secret Theft. I agree with Lars here, which is that lawsuit won't likely be a showstopper for expanding 4680 production.

我认为Colin在问来自韩国的一则报告，内容是有公司PNT声称，特斯拉需要一个能够提供更大量生产设备的供应商，以扩大4680电池的生产。而PNT可以成为那个供应商。这是因为特斯拉目前的供应商，德国的Sauer S.S.G.，无法提供足够的设备。对此，Lars提到了特斯拉最近对Matthews International提起的一起有关商业机密盗窃的诉讼。我同意Lars的看法，即那场诉讼不太可能成为扩大4680电池生产的障碍。

If you'd like to know why, watch my video on Tesla and patents. Either way, it didn't appear to me that Lars addressed Colin's question about qualifying incremental machine supply. Lars Comet did, however, at least explain how Tesla can so easily switch suppliers to get the equipment they need. Whether that be PNT of Korea or Sauer S.S.G. of Germany, they own most of the IP rights needed to produce that equipment. Moving along, before we do analysis of the damaged cathode roller, let's do a quick refresher on what we've heard from Tesla and other sources about the challenges of dry-coding the cathode.

如果你想知道原因，可以观看我关于特斯拉和专利的视频。不管怎样，我觉得拉尔斯并没有回答科林关于如何确定新增机器供应的提问。拉尔斯·科梅特（Lars Comet）至少解释了特斯拉如何轻松地更换供应商以获取所需设备。不论是韩国的PNT还是德国的Sauer S.S.G.，他们拥有生产这些设备所需的大部分知识产权。继续之前，在我们对受损的正极辊进行分析之前，让我们快速回顾一下特斯拉和其他来源所提到的关于干涂正极的挑战。

The first time we heard about cathode coating issues was from Tesla in 2021, where Elon said that the cathode rollers were denting. The second time was of course in this earnings call, where they indicated that the cathode coating now appears to be solved and they're preparing to scale it. That is, Tesla's been tight-lipped on the topic. Outside of Tesla, in the past two months, there were three reports that implicitly or explicitly indicated that Tesla had solved the dry-coding for the cathode. The first was the report on PNT, which said that Tesla needed a supplier that could provide higher volumes of equipment and that PNT was preparing to increase shipments to Tesla. That of course suggested that Tesla is preparing to scale their 4680 production plans faster than in the past, which hinted that Tesla had solved the dry-coding challenges.

我们第一次听说阴极涂层问题是从特斯拉那儿来的，时间是在2021年，当时埃隆·马斯克说阴极涂布辊有凹痕。第二次是在这次财报电话会议上，他们表示阴极涂层问题似乎已经解决，而且他们正准备进行规模化生产。也就是说，特斯拉在这个话题上一直很保密。不过，除了特斯拉之外，在过去两个月内，有三篇报告暗示或明确表示特斯拉已经解决了阴极的干涂层问题。第一篇是关于PNT的报告，说特斯拉需要一个能够提供更大规模设备的供应商，并且PNT正在准备增加对特斯拉的出货量。这当然暗示着特斯拉准备加快4680电池生产计划的规模，这也提示特斯拉已经解决了干涂层的挑战。

That report also said that a different strategy was required for the cathode and anode. Reading between the lines, that suggested that Tesla and their suppliers knew what was required to produce both the cathode and anode. The second report was from the information, which said that Tesla is preparing to validate its engineering approach for high-volume manufacturing of the 4680. That involved finally implementing the dry-coded cathode and scaling up a fix to an issue where the jelly roll or roll of electrode material would collapse into the core of the cell. The third report from late post out of China was the most useful. The article stated that the dry-coded cathode machines kept breaking because the cathode material is harder than the anode material. Each time that happened, there was 45 days of downtime.

那份报告还提到，正极和负极需要不同的策略。字里行间透露出，特斯拉及其供应商知道如何生产正极和负极。第二份报告来自于一条信息，称特斯拉正在准备验证其制造4680电池的工程方法，即将最终实施干涂正极并解决一种问题，即电极材料卷（即果冻卷）会坍塌到电池核心。第三份来自中国的报告是最有用的。文章指出，由于正极材料比负极材料硬，干涂正极的机器频繁出现故障。每次这种情况发生，都会导致45天的停工期。

The simple solution was to replace the equipment, but that required capital out way so Tesla was trying workarounds. However, they finally decided to upgrade the equipment and source it from new suppliers to solve the dry-coding problem for the cathode. The article suggested that Tesla was looking to source equipment from companies in Japan. That conflicts with PNT's claim about being the new supplier. With that said, it's possible and even likely that several suppliers could be involved in manufacturing Tesla's dry-electrode-coding equipment. With all that in mind, in terms of the technical challenges with the dry-coded cathode, Tesla's advice from earnings calls and external reports only really told us two things. First, the cathode rollers were being dented by the cathode material, and second, that Tesla was trying workarounds, but those workarounds didn't work so they decided to invest in new equipment.

一个简单的解决方案是更换设备，但这需要资本支出，因此特斯拉尝试了一些变通办法。然而，他们最终决定升级设备，并从新的供应商处采购，以解决正极材料的干涂层问题。文章提到，特斯拉正在考虑从日本的公司采购设备。这与PNT公司声称成为新供应商的说法相冲突。尽管如此，多家供应商参与特斯拉干电极涂层设备的制造是有可能甚至是很可能的。考虑到这些，关于干涂层正极的技术挑战，特斯拉在财报电话会议和外部报告中仅透露了两个关键点。首先，正极材料导致正极滚轮被压凹；其次，特斯拉尝试了变通办法，但这些办法并不奏效，所以他们决定投资新设备。

That finally brings us to this image of the damaged cathode roller, which may provide us with some more detailed hints as to what was occurring. First, what do I mean by cathode roller? On screen is a zoomed out image of one of Tesla's cathode rollers. Again, thanks to Joe Tegmeyer. My understanding is that for Tesla's dry-coding process, several sets of rollers are used. The first set of rollers, which Tesla's patents call a roll mill, are used to compress the dough-like dry-electrode material into a freestanding film. Then, there's a second set of calendaring rollers to compress the material to the correct porosity and energy density. I'd actually consider the roll mill a type of calendaring as well, but Tesla may have just called it a roll mill to help differentiate it from the calendaring rollers.

这最终将我们带到了这个损坏的阴极辊图像，它可能会为我们提供一些更详细的线索，帮助我们了解发生了什么。首先，什么是阴极辊？屏幕上是一张放大后的特斯拉阴极辊图像。再次感谢乔·特格迈耶的提供。根据我的理解，在特斯拉的干涂工艺中，使用了几组辊子。第一组辊子，特斯拉的专利称之为辊磨机，用于将面团状的干电极材料压成自支撑的薄膜。然后，还有第二组压轧辊，用于压缩材料以达到正确的孔隙率和能量密度。实际上，我认为辊磨机也可以视为一种压轧，但特斯拉可能只是称它为辊磨机，以便将其与压轧辊区分开。

For the image of the damaged cathode roller, I suspect that the roller we're looking at here is the roller for the roll mill. That's because the roll mill would have to rapidly squeeze and evenly distribute large volumes of material to form the freestanding film, which means extreme stress that could dent the rollers or cause the delamination seen here. That's as opposed to calendaring, where the material is already fairly uniform, so the compression stresses wouldn't be as great. Next, let's take a look at the material science and engineering of the roller itself. For this part of the video, I'd like to thank Martin Goddard-Barm, who specializes in electrode coating at Yagenberg Converting Solutions, and Francisco and Carnesau of Northfold, who provided a number of insights on what we could be seeing in the image. Typically, calendaring rollers are a drum rather than solid all the way through. The drum is made of thermally hardened stainless steel. The thermal hardening is necessary to deal with the huge pressures involved in compressing the electrode material. But thermally hardened stainless steel is then chrome plated.

对于这张受损阴极辊的图片，我怀疑我们看到的是轧辊机的辊子。这是因为在轧辊机中，需要快速挤压并均匀分布大量材料以形成自支撑薄膜，这意味着辊子可能会承受极大的压力，从而导致凹痕或分层现象。相比之下，在压延过程中，材料已经相对均匀，所以压缩压力不会那么大。 接下来，我们看看辊子本身的材料科学和工程。在这部分视频中，我要感谢来自Yagenberg Converting Solutions的电极涂层专家Martin Goddard-Barm，以及Northfold的Francisco和Carnesau，他们对我们在图像中看到的内容提供了许多见解。通常，压延辊是中空的圆筒，而不是实心的。圆筒是由热处理的不锈钢制成的。热处理是为了应对在压缩电极材料时所需承受的巨大压力。但热处理后的不锈钢还需要进行镀铬处理。

The chrome plating provides a smooth and even finish on the roller surface, which of course, in turn, creates a similar finish on the active electrode material that it's used to compress. That smooth and even finish is important, because even tiny variations of about 1-2 microns in the active electrode material can reduce battery life and have big impacts on energy density. For reference, one micron is about 1-5th the diameter of a red blood cell. When we look at the image of Tesla's cathode roller, we can see the typical chrome finish and the stainless steel drum underneath. Notably, the drum doesn't have the typical glossy metallic sheen of stainless steel. It has more of a whitish matte finish that looks almost like a ceramic. I spoke with Martin about this, and he suggested that the whitish matte finish may be because the stainless steel went through an extra hardening step, nitriding, where the metal is infused with nitrogen.

镀铬为滚筒表面提供了光滑均匀的表面，这当然也会使其用于压缩的活性电极材料表面同样光滑均匀。这个光滑均匀的表面非常重要，因为甚至只有大约1-2微米的微小变化也会减少电池寿命，并对能量密度产生重大影响。参考一下，一个微米大约是一个红细胞直径的五分之一。当我们看特斯拉的阴极滚筒图像时，可以看到典型的镀铬表面和下面的不锈钢滚筒。值得注意的是，这个滚筒没有不锈钢通常的光泽金属表面，而是更像陶瓷的白色哑光表面。我和马丁谈过这个问题，他建议说，这种白色哑光表面可能是因为不锈钢经过了一个额外的硬化步骤——渗氮，在这个过程中金属被注入了氮气。

Interestingly, the nitriding may have reduced the adhesion of the chrome plating to the stainless steel drum, which may have contributed to the delamination of the chrome plating. That is, my speculation is that Tesla attempted to solve the denting issue by hardening up the drum with nitriding, which may have created a new issue in the form of delamination. As Francisco points out, the delamination may have also had a cascade effect, where the delaminated chrome gouged the rollers and or caused the rollers to collide. That's because these rollers are likely producing electrode film at over 100 meters per minute, so any foreign material that gets bound in or on the roller would likely have a catastrophic impact on the rollers in a matter of seconds. As I note, delamination is always a risk with calendaring rollers due to the forces involved, but the risk of delamination, like the denting issue, is likely higher with Tesla's dry electrode coating process because they're trying to rapidly compress and evenly distribute huge volumes of dry material. The question is, if Tesla's now solved the denting and delamination issues with new production equipment, how was that solved? That's the billion dollar question, and as Martin points out, it's probably the secret sauce of whichever companies solved the dry cathode coating problem.

有趣的是，氮化处理可能降低了镀铬层与不锈钢滚筒之间的附着力，这可能导致了镀铬层的分层。我的推测是，特斯拉试图通过氮化处理来强化滚筒以解决凹痕问题，但这可能又引发了分层的新问题。正如Francisco指出的，分层问题可能还会产生连带效应，导致分层的铬层划伤辊轴或使辊轴发生碰撞。因为这些辊轴可能以每分钟超过100米的速度生产电极膜，因此任何夹在或附着在辊轴上的异物可能在几秒钟内对辊轴造成灾难性影响。正如我提到的，由于涉及的力，使用压延辊时总存在分层的风险，但由于特斯拉干电极涂布工艺需要快速压缩和均匀分布大量干料，该工艺的分层风险可能更高。问题是，如果特斯拉现在通过新生产设备解决了凹痕和分层问题，他们是如何解决的？这是价值数十亿美元的问题，正如Martin指出的，这可能是解决干阴极涂布问题的公司所拥有的“诀窍”。

In summary, Tesla's 4680 production is ramping aggressively, and now at a run rate of 9 gigawatt hours per year, and that's with wet coated cathode material from external suppliers. Now, after four years of development, Tesla appears poised to roll out 4680 cells that are fully produced in-house with dry electrodes. That'll open the door to higher production volumes, faster scaling, and significantly reduce the production cost of their battery cells and packs. In the meantime, due to the fact that Tesla's still dependent on wet coated cathode material until at least the end of this year, I expect Tesla will only increase the production rate of the 4680 lines just enough to keep ahead of the Cybertruck ramp. As a final note, the 4680 cell I received from Monroe & Associates is currently undergoing testing at UC San Diego, and I'll share those results as soon as they're available. If you enjoyed this video, please consider supporting the channel by using the links in the description. Also consider following me on X. I often use X as a testbed for sharing ideas, and X subscribers like my Patreon supporters generally get access to my videos a week early. On that note, a special thanks to my YouTube members, X subscribers, and all the other patrons listed in the credits. I appreciate all of your support, and thanks for tuning in.

总而言之，特斯拉的4680电池产量正在迅速提升，目前年生产率已达到9吉瓦时，而这依赖于外部供应商提供的湿涂阴极材料。经过四年的开发，特斯拉现在似乎已经准备好推出完全由内部生产的干电极4680电池。这将打开更大生产规模的大门，实现更快的扩张，并显著降低电池和电池组的生产成本。在此期间，由于特斯拉至少到今年年底仍依赖湿涂阴极材料，我预计特斯拉只会将4680生产线的产量提高到刚好能跟上Cybertruck（赛博卡车）的生产速度。 最后，我从Monroe & Associates获得的4680电池目前正在加州大学圣地亚哥分校进行测试，结果出来后我会第一时间分享。如果你喜欢这个视频，请考虑通过描述中的链接支持这个频道。同时，可以考虑在X上关注我。我经常使用X作为分享想法的实验平台，X的订阅者和我的Patreon支持者一样，通常可以提前一周观看我的视频。特别感谢我的YouTube会员、X订阅者以及所有在结尾字幕中列出的赞助者。感谢你们的支持，谢谢观看。