10 AI Business Ideas From The Queen of AI ft. Sarah Guo

I think it is worth talking about the fact that there are ways to make a million bucks and then like ways to make a million bucks that could turn into a billion bucks, right? And I think we should talk about both. Ah, do we hit record already? Yeah. That's the intro. All right. I feel like I can rule the world. I know I could be what I want to. I put my law in it like a day zone. For the road, let's travel. So what do you mean by that? You're saying there's ways to make a million bucks and then there's ways to make a million bucks that could turn into a billion bucks. You have my interest. Let's go. Okay. Let's go. So I think maybe, and I don't mean this any dismissive way. I think venture capitalists are very often accused of dismissing something as like a cash flow lifestyle business or whatever, right? Which by the way, for anyone who is not in the VC world, you go to a VC, you say, I've got this great company. I think it can make five million in profit in year eight. And then after that, maybe we can grow this for another 50 years and one day it could be a thing and they say, that's a really nice lifestyle business. It's like them saying, that's cute.

我觉得值得讨论的是，有一些方法可以赚到一百万美元，然后还有一些可以赚到一百万但有潜力变成十亿的方法，对吧？我认为我们应该同时讨论这两种方法。啊，我们已经开始录音了吗？好吧，那这就是开场白了。 我觉得我能征服世界，我知道我可以成为我想成为的人。我全力以赴，选择了一条少有人走的路。那么，你这是什么意思？你是说有方法可以赚到一百万美元，还有一些方法可以让这百万变成十亿。你引起了我的兴趣。我们继续吧。好，继续。 我觉得，也不是说要轻视什么，我认为风险投资家常常被批评为把一些事情轻描淡写地称作“现金流生活方式业务”之类的东西。顺便说一下，对于任何不在风险投资领域的人来说，你去找风险投资家，说“我有个很棒的公司，我认为在八年后能有五百万的利润，然后也许这业务可以再发展五十年，有朝一日会成大事。”他们会说，“这是一个不错的生活方式业务。” 其实就是婉转地说，“挺可爱的。”

Right. I remember. That's cute. Yeah. I remember my first time doing that. Of course, the thing is, is that anyone who actually is an entrepreneur, including anyone who's a VC, they know that you can oftentimes get richer and have a less stressful life if you have a quote lifestyle business. Yeah. So I'd say like there's many type of valid businesses, right? And then also a lot of things that are become very interesting start very small. So I want to recognize that. But I think a reasonable analogy is if you can figure out internet distribution and then get, you know, super powerful models getting increasingly powerful to just do something useful and in niche, those two things together, that's like the new drop shipping. You know how like for maybe seven or eight years, I'm like too old to know what the exact timeline was, but there was a period of time where people were like, oh, you know, I'm an internet kid. I'm going to figure out some drop shipping thing and like make my first hundred thousand dollars.

好的。我记得。这挺有意思的。是啊，我记得我第一次那样做的情景。当然，实际上任何真正的企业家，包括风投在内的人都知道，如果你有一个所谓的“生活方式”生意，通常可以变得更富有而且生活压力更小。对，我觉得有很多种合法的业务类型。而且很多变得非常有趣的事情也是从非常小的起点开始的。所以我想承认这一点。但我认为一个合理的类比是，如果你能弄清楚互联网分发，再加上越来越强大的模型来做一些有用的事情，并且专注于一个小众领域，这两者结合起来，就像是新的代发货模式。你知道，在也许七八年间，具体时间我已经记不清了，但有段时间人们会说：“哦，你知道，我是个互联网小子，我要搞个代发货的项目，赚到我的第一个十万美元。”

I think this is it. Yes. So basically for people who don't really know, you could go on Alibaba or all the express. That was like the open AI in this case, right? So it was like this thing exists that you didn't have to build, but it's magic. Watch this. You could push a button. You never had to make the product. You never had to warehouse the product. You never have to ship the product. It will just magically appear at your customer's door, you know, somewhere between one and three weeks later. All you have to do is the marketing bit. And kind of what you're saying is open AI and the other AI companies have built this magic that basically will take a piece of text and turn it into a video or a song or whatever. And if you just do the marketing bit, you can actually almost like drop ship a product or a service to the customer without having to make it yourself. Is that the idea? That is. Thanks for explaining it. And I think it's like easier with a few examples, right? Like copy editing is probably a prototypical one, right? You can do not amazing, but like reasonable copy generation with these models today. And so there are series of companies where you just have some templates that make it more obvious to somebody writing marketing copy, how to use these models. And then you have a website with Decine SEO. And then like you add some stripe integration and you're in business. What's an example? Well, I think like copy AI and Jasper, these companies started this way, right? And then I have several friends who have shipped like AI companionship apps. Just look at, you know, paid apps in the app store by charting. And you know, some of those people are generating a million dollars for cash flow for themselves. It's not because they're deep AI people.

我觉得就是这样。是的。基本上，对于那些不太了解的人来说，你可以上阿里巴巴或者速卖通。这在某种程度上就像开放式人工智能，对吧？就像存在这样一个神奇的东西，你不必自己去构建，但它却像魔法一样。看这儿，你只需按个按钮，你不用生产产品，不用储存产品，也不用发货。产品将在一到三周后神奇地出现在客户的门口。你唯一要做的就是营销。而你所描述的，基本上就是开放式人工智能和其他人工智能公司构建了这种魔法，可以将一段文字变成视频或歌曲或其他东西。如果你只做营销部分，你实际上就像是在进行无库存销售，把产品或服务直接送到客户手中，而不必自己制造。这就是这个想法吗？是的。谢谢你的解释。我觉得用几个例子会更容易理解。比如说，文案编辑大概是一个典型例子吧。现在这些模型可以生成不错但不是特别出色的文案。所以有一些公司会提供模板，让写营销文案的人更容易使用这些模型。然后你需要一个有良好SEO设置的网站，再加上Stripe支付整合，你的业务就可以启动了。举个例子，我觉得像Copy AI和Jasper这些公司就是这样开始的。此外，我有几个朋友发布了AI陪伴类应用。你只要看看应用商店里收费的应用，有些人通过这些应用能获得每年百万美元的现金流，这并不是因为他们是深度AI专业人士。

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好的，我们先休息一下。我得跟你说，你见过那些科切拉音乐节的海报吗？上面有所有艺术家的名字，你会惊呼，“哇，他们请到了那个谁谁谁和滚石乐队。”HubSpot的Inbound会议的演讲名单就是这样的。你听听他们都有谁，我不知道他们是怎么做到的，但名单真是令人惊叹。瑞安·雷诺兹、塞雷娜·威廉姆斯、卡拉·斯威舍、马特·沃尔夫、达梅什，还有布莱恩·哈里根。HubSpot Inbound会议有很多顶级讲师。这个会议即将到来，时间是9月18日至20日，地点在波士顿。如果你想学习市场营销、销售、AI趋势，你想比别人更早知道未来的发展方向，这就是你要去的地方。会上会有很多精彩的演讲，你可以学习销售策略和行之有效的市场营销战术，还可以进行社交，了解同行在做什么，看看他们是如何取得成功的。所以赶紧去看看吧，到inbound.com查看演讲名单并今日购票。

When you say companion, you mean like a digital girlfriend? Or boyfriend, right? I think people think that is skewed toward girlfriend in a way that's not necessarily true. And you can have your own ethical points of view about whether or not that's good for people, but it's a pretty basic human need. And guess what? People want all sorts of different things in terms of niche companionship and how you might distribute that. And aren't these quietly very huge? Can we do some ballpark, give people a sense of the size and scale that these have gotten to? So there's replica. I think that's probably the most well-known one, which is a digital boyfriend or girlfriend. They kind of try to say friend, but I think the use case is a little bit more in the relationship side of things. And I don't remember their exact numbers, but I don't think I would be crazy for saying they're doing like 50 million a year in revenue. And I believe she had bootstrapped it for a while, at least, or raised very little money to get there. Is that right? Tell me if I'm off base. I might be wrong on some of that. Yeah, Eugenius built a very cash efficient business. Okay. Is that like code for something? Are you an investor and graphic?

当你说伴侣时，你是指像一个数字女朋友或男朋友，对吗？我觉得人们认为这种事情更多是倾向于女朋友，但这不一定是真实的。而且你可以有自己的伦理观点来判断这对人是否有益，但这确实是一个相当基本的人类需求。你猜怎么着？人们在小众伴侣关系和如何分发这些方面有各种不同的需求。难道这些需求不是悄悄地变得非常巨大了吗？我们能不能大致估算一下，让大家了解这些需求的规模和范围？ 比如说Replica，我认为这是最知名的一个，因为它是一个数字世界的男朋友或女朋友。他们试图说这是一个朋友，但是我觉得实际用途更多是在关系方面。我不记得他们的确切数字，但我觉得说他们每年大概有5000万美元的收入应该不算离谱。我相信她在一段时间内都是用自有资金启动的，至少是靠很少的钱做到这点的。对吗？如果我说错了请指正。我可能有些细节搞错了。对，Eugene建立了一家非常注重现金效率的公司。 这是什么意思？你是这方面的投资者吗？

No, I'm not an investor. Dude, you just said everything without saying a thing. It was basically like, your friends are there, you know the number and they're killing it. Are they killing it from your perspective? I think they are making a lot more revenue than most startups. I don't think it's fair for me to give the number. It's not my number, right? Okay. What are the other ones that are interesting? So there's character AI that has like some absurd amount of traffic, but I've also heard some things about like, I don't know if this is all legit traffic or what, but there's character AI. What are the other ones that are interesting? Or what do you do? Who's your?

不，我不是投资者。兄弟，你虽然说了一大堆，但其实什么也没说。基本上就是，你的朋友在那里，你知道他们的业绩，他们做得很棒。从你的角度看，他们做得很好吗？我觉得他们的收入比大多数初创公司要多得多。具体数字我认为我不方便透露，因为这不是我的数据，对吧？好，还有哪些是有趣的？有个叫 Character AI 的项目，他们的流量惊人，但我也听到一些关于流量真实性的质疑，所以不确定这些流量是否都是真实的。除此之外，还有哪些项目是有趣的？你在做什么？你是谁？

I want to touch on character for a second because I think like, you know, when you look at consumer companies, one of the things that I learned was that the behavior patterns, like when something just really, really stands out from all other products in their category or previous categories, that's when you pay attention. It's like the, you know, dumbest metric, but it is really clear when something has special consumer behavior around. And the thing that is really interesting to me about character or the companion apps that work really well is like people spend hours with them, right? Like, you know, in terms of the number of products, how many products do you spend hours with every day? Not a lot. Like social media? Sean, that's like my product that I spent hours a day with. Yeah. You were at Great Luck.

我想谈一下“特质”（或“人物性格”）这个话题，因为我认为，当你看消费类公司时，有一个我学到的东西，那就是行为模式。当某个产品在其分类或之前的类别中格外突出的时候，你就会特别关注它。虽然这是一个看似最简单的指标，但在某个产品表现出特别的消费者行为时，你能清楚地感觉到它的特别之处。我觉得很有意思的地方在于那些角色或优质的伴随应用，人们会花好几个小时在它们上面。想想有多少产品你每天会花几个小时使用？其实不多，比如社交媒体。Sean，那是我每天花很多时间使用的产品。是的，你真是好运。

I think when they invest in Discord, I think the timing is there. And Discord was one of those things that was probably overlooked because it was like, you know, mostly teenagers who play video games that were using this thing. And it kind of looked like a chat room, but you're like, well, how's it going to make money? It's not like Slack where you can charge the company. But the stat was people were spending like seven hours a day or something on Discord, something ridiculous like that. Just living in Discord. It was their social life. And so you're like, well, there's there's definitely something there. And they were able to make a ton of money just even selling emojis at that point. Because if you have that much engagement, you can't fake that.

我觉得他们投资Discord的时候，时机是非常合适的。Discord当时可能被很多人忽视了，因为大多是青少年在玩游戏时使用的，感觉像是一个普通的聊天室。可能有人会想，这东西怎么赚钱呢？不像Slack，可以向公司收费。但有一个统计数据显示，人们每天在Discord上花费大约七个小时，简直难以置信。他们的社交生活几乎都在上面。因此，你会觉得这里面肯定有些什么。而他们居然能够仅靠卖表情包就赚了很多钱。因为有这么高的用户参与度，是无法作假的。

Yes. By the way, I just went to character AI. And there's an option to chat with Elon Musk. And the preloaded question, why did you buy Twitter? So I click it. So it starts a chat with Elon Musk as a character. And then it first response literally goes, you're wasting my time. I literally ruled the world. Okay. So by the way, according to similar web, which is like you multiply it by two or three, and then you divide by two and three. And that's the huge range. But according to similar web, it says that character AI has 310 million monthly uniques. Are you kidding me? I mean, that's more than the Wall Street Journal. It's more than like a bunch of really fun things. Is this company really that big?

好的，顺便说一下，我刚刚去了Character AI网站，发现有一个选项可以和“埃隆·马斯克”聊天。其中有一个预设的问题是“你为什么买推特？”。我点进去之后，聊天就开始了。结果“埃隆·马斯克”一上来就回应说：“你在浪费我的时间，我统治着世界。” 根据SimilarWeb的数据（这个数据通常要乘以2或3，然后再除以2或3，所以范围很大），Character AI每月有3.1亿独立用户。你在开玩笑吗？这比《华尔街日报》的读者还多，比许多非常有趣的网站还要多。这家公司真的这么大吗？

I think people want companions. This is what I'm saying that the like engagement characteristics around this stuff is real. And so for anybody like starting a new business, one person company shipping AI companion up to a niche, like generating a million dollars of cashflow for them. So do you know how these things grow? So I mean, 300 million monthly visits is no joke. What is what's the growth channel for something like this? Well, I think that's going to be like an advantage in the future.

我认为人们是需要伴侣的。这就是我说的，参与其中的特性是真实存在的。所以，对于任何想要创业的人来说，一个人公司推出一个面向小众市场的AI伴侣，能给他们带来一百万美元的现金流。你知道这些业务是如何增长的吗？我的意思是，三亿次月访问量不是开玩笑的。这种业务的增长渠道是什么呢？我认为这将在未来成为一种优势。

I do think one of the weird things about these AI capabilities is they are so novel and unique that they do drive word of mouth. For example, with character, you can make new characters and people share them, right? So there's inbuilt virality there. But like maybe I'll give you like two other examples of just like when I say the capabilities are just really new and they're powerful and people want to talk about them. Like I don't think you can engineer that, but it's just characteristic of these companies.

我确实认为这些人工智能功能有一件很奇怪的事情，那就是它们非常新颖和独特，所以能引发人们的口碑传播。举个例子，在角色方面，你可以创造新角色，然后人们会分享这些角色，对吧？这其中就有内置的病毒式传播效果。但我要再举两个例子来说明这些功能是多么新奇和强大，以至于人们想要讨论它们。我觉得这种效果不是可以人为设计出来的，但它确实是这些公司的一个特点。

Okay. So one example is I am an investor in a company called Hagen. You can make a video avatar of yourself. You cannot tell the difference. And reaching that bar of quality is new as of this past year. And like people create content that is unbelievable and they share it. And so like now Hagen is in tens of millions in revenue. Great. They've never spent a dollar on like paid marketing. Sam, have you seen this thing before, by the way, Hager? This is one of those products that I've seen all over the place.

好的。举个例子，我投资了一家公司，叫Hagen。你可以制作一个与你本人几乎无异的视频虚拟形象。达到这种质量水平是去年才实现的。人们用它创建出令人难以置信的内容，并分享出来。现在，Hagen的收入已经达到了数千万美元。很棒的是，他们从来没有在付费营销上花过一分钱。Sam，你之前见过这个东西吗，Hagen？这是我经常看到的一款产品。

But it felt like it was just like people younger than me talking about it. So I felt embarrassed. Well, this is not like like the character AI was like, you know, that's like teenagers kind of sharing stuff more like what pad or something. This is a corporate use case. So this is basically using like I make a digital AI of me or of a or just like a fake character altogether. And then it can be used in training videos. It can be used in intro, videos with customers, things like that.

但是感觉就像只有比我年轻的人在谈论这件事。所以我觉得有点尴尬。不过，这个不是像那种角色AI，你知道的，那种更像是青少年在什么Wattpad上分享的那种。这是一个企业用例。基本上是制作一个我的数字AI，或者一个完全虚拟的角色，然后可以用于培训视频、客户介绍视频等等。

So you could basically create a, you don't have to actually set up a camera, film a video, have it edited and then post it in order to send a video to a prospect or send a video internally to in a training system or educational product. And so that's what this is. And that's why they just as it says, the top raised 60 million funding. But I think the chart I saw was pretty absurd that you know, they basically raised 20 million in ARR very, very fast. Holy crap.

所以，你基本上可以创建一个视频，而无需实际设置相机、拍摄视频、剪辑然后发布，就能够向潜在客户发送视频，或者在培训系统或教育产品中内部发送视频。这就是它的功能所在，这也是为什么如标题所说，他们获得了六千万的融资。我觉得这真的有点夸张，因为据我所知，他们在很短的时间内就获得了两千万的年度经常性收入。天哪。

Some of the usage actually also it, yes, it's a business use case, but it's like all kinds of businesses like creators, SMBs, like high end enterprise advertisers. And so like for you guys would be like, okay, well, like actually, I bet there's a lot more demand for Sean and Sam talking than the amount I'm sure you hang out on the pot a lot. But like, then even each of you can contribute. And so if the marginal cost of more time of Sam talking is free, like you probably do more with it, right?

有些使用场景其实也是这样的，是的，这是一个商业用例，但涉及各种类型的业务，比如内容创作者、中小企业和高端企业广告商。对于你们来说，可能会觉得，嗯，实际上，我打赌肖恩和山姆聊天的需求比他们在播客中闲聊的时间还要多，但即使如此，你们每个人都能做出贡献。如果让山姆多说一点的边际成本是免费的，那你们可能会更多地利用这个优势，对吧？

And I think that's just what people are discovering. Have you guys used this? Is it the landing page makes it look amazing? Like, I've used it. Is it amazing? Or is it still up and coming? No, it's like pretty good. This this crop, this one crosses the line, I would say of usable in real life versus cool demo, which is the hard thing with AI, you get a lot of cool demos, then you go in and you're trying to use it for your use case. And you're like, how come the tweet had such a good output of a mining is kind of whack every single time? Or like, well, this is good, but it won't let me change the text on it, which is what I would need to use it in my my real thing. I would say this one is is definitely production ready. They wouldn't have, you know, tens of millions in revenue if they weren't actually usable like customers. Well, they just did a like a public campaign with McDonald's, right? Like an advertising, but there's some good limits, right? Like you can't be like moving around. It's like a face on camera, or at least that's what it used to be when I tried it, like six months ago. Yeah, there's some new stuff you should try like, you know, you can be walking around now, right? Okay, I stay corrected. All right, never back. Can they just can we just upload our YouTube page or do we have to stand in front of it and film? You have to stand in front of your web or phone camera for two minutes and film. And it's more of a safety thing than anything else because they don't want people being able to take your YouTube and make you, if that makes sense, like they want they want you saying specific words about like, I, Sam Parr say it's okay to make this avatar.

我觉得这正是人们正在发现的事实。你们用过这个吗？是落地页让它看起来很棒吗？我用过了，它真的很棒吗？还是说它仍在完善中？不，它已经相当不错了。我认为这个产品跨越了能在真实生活中使用和只是个炫酷演示之间的界线，这在AI中是个难题。你会看到很多很酷的演示，但当你尝试用它们满足你的需求时，你会发现，为什么推特上有那么好的输出，而我每次用时效果都很糟糕？或者，这挺好，但却不让我改动文本，而这正是我在实际应用中需要的。我会说这个产品已经可以投入生产使用了。如果它不是真正可用的，它们不可能有上千万的收入。他们刚刚和麦当劳做了一个像广告一样的公开活动，对吧？不过也有一些限制，比如以前你不能移动，只能是面对摄像头的脸，至少这是我六个月前试过时的情况。现在有一些新功能你应该试试，比如你现在可以走动了，对吧？好吧，我纠正一下。我们能不能就上传我们的YouTube页面，还是必须站在摄像头前拍摄？你必须站在电脑或手机摄像头前拍两分钟。这更多是出于安全考虑，因为他们不希望有人拿你的YouTube内容来冒充你，如果这样说能让你理解的话。他们希望你能说一些特定的话，比如“双眼，山姆·帕尔（Sam Parr），你可以制作这个头像。”

And you said that you started the podcast by saying there's like a lot of you had a lot of the line you said was awesome, which is like there's a bunch of ways to make a million dollars that could eventually become a billion. Is this one of those companies where it started that way? I think, I mean, I think the market for this company is very deep because people, like they want a lot of video. And I think more like if you just think about the domain of making video, you guys know much more about this than me. But like people want a lot of control, right? They want quality, they want specific expression and brand and motions and they want like one person, two people, three people, like person walking around product, whatever it is. And so I think there's actually a lot like there's a lot we still cannot do with research and the company wants to continually pull like push the bounds of what you can do. And so I think this is a good example of like, I think there's a billion dollars of video generation revenue for them or for others. But like, you know, you actually have to invest in a product pretty deeply, but it doesn't mean that your wedge can't be really powerful across a single use case.

你说你开始播客时提到过一句非常棒的话，就是有很多种方法可以赚到一百万美元，并且最终可能变成十亿。这家公司是这样开始的吗？我认为，这个公司的市场非常大，因为人们对于视频有很大的需求。而且如果你考虑制作视频的领域，你们比我更清楚这一点，人们想要很多的控制权，他们想要质量，想要特定的表达和品牌形象以及动态内容。他们可能想要一两个人，或者三个人在产品周围走动，无论内容是什么。实际上，通过现在的研究还有很多我们无法实现的事情，而这家公司希望不断推进你能实现的界限。所以，我认为这是一个好例子，说明他们或其他公司在视频生成方面有可能赚到十亿美元的收入。但是，这意味着你必须对产品深入投资，但这不意味着你在单一用例上不能拥有巨大的影响力。

Sam, have you seen the ones that do this for DTC products, the AI for DTC product ads? So go to icon.me. If you scroll down, you could watch the video. So see the video of the Asian dude who's holding like a college and peptides thing. So that's an AI generated video. It's the product in his hand. That's not actually in his hand with a script that was written. He never recorded it. And now you have a UGC very authentic looking ad for an influencer. You go to the next one. Look, he's holding a different product. That's because he didn't reshoot it. They just put a different product in his hand and it looks super fucking real. Am I right? What? Isn't this wild? This is amazing. And so he's got another one with ramen.

萨姆，你看到过那些用于DTC（直接面向消费者）产品广告的AI吗？去icon.me这个网站看看。如果你往下滚动，就能看到视频。你看看那个亚裔小伙子，他手里拿着一种叫做college and peptides的东西。那个视频是AI生成的，手里的产品其实不是他真的在拿，剧本也是AI写的，他从未录制过这个视频。现在你就有了一个看起来很真实的用户生成内容（UGC）风格的广告。再看下一个视频，他又拿了不同的产品。但其实他并没有重新拍摄过，只是AI把不同的产品放到了他手里，而且看起来非常逼真。对吧？是不是很不可思议？这太棒了。他还有一个拿着拉面的广告。

And so what he's doing is interesting. What he's doing is he's letting actual and so these are not AI generate people. This is a real person. This is like an Instagram guy who's got like whatever hundreds of thousands of followers. So he's letting popular Instagram people say, Hmm, okay, I'll do it. I'll create my digital twin that will be able to do my brand like my branded content. So a brand can come in request from a listening Instagrammer with a million followers and say, I want you to sponsor this video. Here's the script. Here's my product. And if I click yes, then it will AI generate that video.

所以，他正在做的事情很有趣。他让的是实际的人，不是AI生成的虚拟人物。这些是真实的，比如一个有着成千上万粉丝的Instagram用户。他让那些受欢迎的Instagram用户决定，嗯，好吧，我会创建一个我的数字分身，去做我的品牌内容。这样，一个品牌就可以向一个拥有一百万粉丝的知名Instagram用户提出赞助请求，提供脚本和产品。如果该用户点击"是"，AI就会生成那个视频。

I never needed to like open up a package, grab a thing, you know, take take 20 minutes, set up my tripod, record an ad, send it to the brand, ask them if it's okay, then they say, yes. And then I get paid. Instead of this case, it's basically like, I just approve the brand. It uses my digital twin to make the ad. If I'm cool with the ad, I get paid. And that's it. And so that's what he's doing. Our ads is the same thing. If you go to our ads, it's like pretty fucking wild. And in their case, these are fake actors. So these women that you see on the thing that are like promoting stuff, these people do not exist. This is an AI generated woman who looks like a real person that is promoting some product. And you script it and you can get these made. These are the Or it might be like a real person, but they said like licensed to the company, you can do whatever you want with it. Yeah, exactly.

我以前从来不需要做这些事情：打开一个包裹，拿出东西，花20分钟架好三脚架，录制广告，然后发送给品牌，询问他们是否满意，他们说可以，然后我才得到报酬。而现在，我只需要批准这个品牌，他们就会用我的数字分身来制作广告。如果我觉得广告可以，我就能拿钱，就是这么简单。这就是他正在做的事情。我们的广告也是一样的。如果你看看我们的广告，就会觉得非常震撼。在他们的案例中，这些是虚拟演员。因此，你在广告中看到的那些推广产品的女性其实是不存在的。这是一个由人工智能生成的，看起来像真实人类的女性，她在推广某种产品。你可以编写脚本并制作这些广告。这可能也是真人，但他们把形象授权给公司，公司可以随意使用。对，就是这样。

But I think in this case, they might have started with a couple of those like I think they found one of the girls from this like on five or something. But the idea would be I don't know too much about the under the hood stuff of these. I just started playing with them. But the idea would be that, you know, people are not going to know what the hell is real and what's not this these look like real people in their home giving a genuine endorsement of some product that they like. And it is very simple to create. I think Sarah, this is the type of idea you're talking about where two people can kind of take the existing models, you know, maybe customize them here. But then it's just in a wedge in this case, it's for e-commerce companies.

但我认为在这种情况下，他们可能是从几个人开始的，比如我认为他们找到了一个女孩是通过这个方法，在五人之中发现的。但这个想法是，我对这些背后的具体细节不是很了解，我刚刚开始玩这些。然而，核心思想就是，人们将无法分辨什么是真实的，什么不是。看起来就像是真人在家中对他们喜欢的某个产品进行真诚的推荐一样。而且制作非常简单。我认为，Sarah，这就是你所说的那种想法，两个人可以稍微定制一下现有的模型，然后在某种程度上应用，比如在这个案例中，这种方法可以用于电子商务公司。

And they're going to try to build a business here that will do it'll be these both these businesses very quick to get to, you know, mid seven figures of revenue without, you know, much marketing spend or much of anything just because the product is such a wow product. And then, you know, from there, who knows if it can get, you know, really enormous or not. Yeah. And I think a piece of it is just like for me, like, okay, what's the difference between like the first million and the next 999 million? It is whether or not the capability exists in the company to make the product deeper and keep expanding scope for what you do for your customer, right? And but there's a ton of these wedges. So staying with visual content, you can use this category of models, their open source to be fine-tuned for different use cases that are super commercial, right? So it could be models or creator videos for e-comm, as you described, it could be renderings for like interior design or buildings.

他们打算在这里建立一个业务，而且这两个业务都会很快达到七位数的收入，而不需要太多的市场推广或其他投入，因为产品本身就非常出色。接下来，谁知道它能不能变得更巨大呢。 对我来说，关键在于，第一个百万和接下来的九亿九千九百万之间的差别在于，公司是否具备将产品做得更深入、并不断扩展客户服务范围的能力。而且，这里有很多切入口。比如在视觉内容方面，你可以使用这个类别的模型，它们是开源的，可以根据不同的商业用例进行微调。这些用例可能包括电商的视频制作、室内设计或建筑的渲染等。

I don't know if you guys have ever looked at a floor plan. Like maybe I just have terrible visual spatial reasoning, but I can't look at a floor plan with like a couple blocks and then like a fuzzy piece of fabric and be like, yes, I see it. Right. Are my life savings into this? And our friend Peter Lovels has a thing where you take a picture of your home and then it does interior design for you and shows you mock-ups, which is pretty cool. Yeah, but I'd say like those, you know, those renderings traditionally generated costs like thousands of dollars, right? And now if you can give it to people for very little incremental costs, like that's an interesting wedge. Like there's a handful of AI headshot companies making revenue.

我不知道你们有没有看过楼层平面图。可能是我的视觉空间推理能力很差，但我无法通过看几块方块和一片模糊的布料，就能明白这是谁家的设计。对，依靠这个来投入我毕生的积蓄？我们的朋友彼得·洛维尔斯有一个很棒的工具，你拍一张你家的照片进去，它就会为你做室内设计，并展示出效果图，这真的很酷。不过我要说的是，传统上这些效果图要花费成千上万的美元对吧？而现在如果你可以用很少的增量成本提供给人们，那就很有意思了。就像现在有一些AI头像公司已经在赚取收入一样。

Have you guys have ever gone like a professional headshot taken? Yeah, dude. So this actually, this is like a kind of actually interesting version of the drop shipping idea. So these are, this is, I bet you this would work. So there was an ad I saw on Facebook, I think there was a Facebook ad and it basically was a guy and he had a headshot. I think of somebody who I recognize, maybe as a VC in Silicon Valley, but basically like, if you're in San Francisco, I take awesome headshots for you. You should have a great shot for your website, for your LinkedIn, whatever. It's good for business, good for your career. And you click a site and it's a bunch of people in the tech industry and it was like $300 or $400.

你们有没有拍过专业的人像照片？有啊，哥们。所以，实际上，这是一个挺有趣的电商模式的变种。我打赌这个方法会奏效。我在Facebook上看到一个广告，我想是个Facebook广告，广告中有一个人展示了一张人像照片，我好像认得那个人，可能是硅谷的某个风险投资人。基本上就是说，如果你在旧金山，我可以为你拍摄超棒的人像照片。你的网站、LinkedIn等地方需要一张好照片，这对你的事业和生意都有好处。你点击网站，会看到一群科技行业的人，这个服务收费大概是300到400美元。

And I went to some warehouse type of place in some little like photo shoot studio in San Francisco, stood there awkwardly, got like headshots made and paid this guy, you know, $350. And he was running Facebook ads profitably to do that. So he was able to put in and he was acquiring a customer for whatever, $70. He was generating $350 off them. And now you could run that same funnel, just without the San Francisco studio and without the guy taking the picture and without any of the cost, right? Like you just say, awesome, give me a couple of your photos and then boom, here you go. And I've seen a couple of these go viral of like viral headshot viral yearbook ideas.

我去了一家位于旧金山的类似仓库的地方，那里面有一个小型摄影工作室。我在那里站得很尴尬，拍了一些头像照片，付了一个人350美元。他通过投放脸书广告盈利，从每个客户那里获得了大约70美元的收入，而他能从每个客户身上赚350美元。现在，你可以用同样的营销手段，只是不需要旧金山的摄影工作室，也不需要有人帮你拍照，也不用支付这些费用了。你只需要说，太棒了，给我几张你的照片，然后搞定。我看到一些这样的头像照片或年册照片的点子在网上疯传。

But I haven't seen too many people just like running paid on them and making them work. But I'm pretty sure that you could create a paid funnel that would print cash for a period of time and maybe not forever, but an arbitrage period of time. Yeah. But what's what's it exactly? So I've seen the same ones where it's like, you look like a 80s glam shot model. Remember, like the professional one, people are willing to pay more, right? So if it's actually going to be for your example of one.

不过，我并没有看到太多人只是用付费的方式来运行它们并让它们工作。不过，我确信你可以创建一个付费渠道，在一段时间内——可能不是永久的，但至少在套利期内——会产生现金。对，但那究竟是什么呢？我见过一些类似的例子，比如，你看起来像个80年代的魅力模特。记得那种比较专业的照片吗？人们愿意为那种照片支付更多的钱。所以，如果真要举个例子的话……

Yeah. Look at this, look at this company, Aragon.ai. Oh, dude, look at this landing page. This is genius. They just have a side scrolling carousel, and it's the before's. And then there's a line. And then they just that same photo becomes the after that is very well done. That's good. Sarah, how hard is something like this to make? So like there are a million of these wedges, right? And I think that means like it's an amazing time to, as you were saying, like be good at distribution, understand like how to make a funnel and how to market something and like to be an idea person, right? Fundamentally, like if you run into problems all the time and you like see the basic capabilities, you're like, oh, I can think like you guys are both like, oh, I can think of like five other use cases for this, right?

是啊。看看这个，看看这家公司，Aragon.ai。哦，兄弟，看看这个着陆页。简直是天才设计。他们只用了一个横向滚动的轮播，而且全是"前"的图片。然后有一条线，之后同样的照片变成了"后"的图片，做得非常好。真的很棒。Sarah，做这样的东西有多难？就像有成千上万这样的楔子，对吧？我觉得这意味着现在是一个非常好的时机，正如你所说，要擅长分发，了解如何建立销售漏斗以及如何营销，成为一个有创意的人，对吗？基本上，如果你经常遇到问题，并且看到基本的能力，你会想着，哦，我还能想到这个有五个其他用例，你们都是这样想的，对吧？

And by the way, you know, the distribution thing. So this is a good example. So I invested a little bit in Jasper. And Jasper was started by guys who were internet marketers first, not AI researchers, not AI, you know, engineers, not, not even frankly, very good engineers, probably. They were just like internet guys, internet, internet business guys. And they were, I think they were doing something before this that wasn't really working very well, but they had spent a lot of time building like internet marketing funnels. And so when they got access to probably chat GPT three or something like that, they were kind of back before, sorry, before chat GPT, just when it was GPT three, they got access to the API. And they built Jasper, which was a took that same capability, but now made it useful for marketers.

顺便提一下，你知道的，关于分发的事情。这是一个很好的例子。我在Jasper里投资了一点钱。Jasper是由一些原本做互联网营销的人创办的，不是AI研究人员，也不是AI工程师，坦白来说，他们可能也不算是很好的工程师。他们只是一群互联网人士，互联网生意人。我想在此之前他们做的事情并不顺利，但是他们花了很多时间建立互联网营销漏斗。所以当他们获得了可能是GPT-3的访问权限时，实际上是在ChatGPT之前，当时仅有GPT-3的API。他们就利用这些技术构建了Jasper，这让这种能力对营销人员变得更加有用。

So if you're a marketer, you need a blog post written or an email or you needed, you know, copy written for an ad, whatever it was, they just made a standalone tool that would do that under the hood. It's, you know, the open AI model is doing 80 90% of the work, they may be customized the last last mile of it. But they were so good at internet marketing that they started running Facebook ads on this thing. And it's the fastest company I've ever seen get to 50 million in ARR. They get to 50 million ARR in one year, which is to go from zero to 50 million in revenue in one year is just absurd. And the way the reason they were able to do that is because their background as internet marketers as guys were like, as soon as I have anything that works, I will just plow the maximum amount of cash into Facebook as as I can. And I will just keep optimizing the ads until I get this thing, you know, a dollar in equals $1.50 out or dollar in equals $2 out. And that's why they were able to be so successful early on because they had a different skill set than most of the Silicon Valley people. Most of Silicon Valley don't ever run payed ads. That's just like a pretty crazy thing.

所以，如果你是一个营销人员，你需要撰写博客文章或电子邮件，或者你需要为广告撰写文案，不管是什么，他们都创造了一个独立工具来完成这些任务。在后台，OpenAI模型完成了80%到90%的工作，他们可能只需要在最后一步进行定制化处理。但他们在互联网营销方面非常厉害，所以他们开始在Facebook上投放广告。这家公司是我见过的最快达到5000万美元年经常性收入（ARR）的公司。他们在一年内就从零增长到5000万美元收入，这实在是太疯狂了。 他们之所以能够做到这一点，是因为他们有互联网营销的背景。这些人一旦有任何有效的东西，就会将尽可能多的资金投入到Facebook广告中，并不断优化广告，直到实现一美元投入获得1.5美元或2美元的回报。这使他们在早期能够非常成功，因为他们具备与大多数硅谷人不同的技能。大多数硅谷公司从未进行付费广告投放，这是一个非常疯狂的事情。

I think like if we just go to the difference then like a challenge for anyone in these companies that gets this wedge and like is rare to see zero to 50 in one year, that's pretty special. But even if you get like a product to hit in terms of initial adoption, then I think the like the next $999 million of revenue has to be like, I think more traditional moats. Because the problem is if it was, I'm not saying the distribution piece was easy, but let's say you were just first with an idea and like you hit it on Reddit because it's a novel capability. Like I think then you need to get to traditional like reasons companies get really big product velocity, depth of product ability to serve the customer or social engagement or something. So like if you think about companions, it could be like what are the arguments for like why somebody gets to dominate that business.

我觉得，如果我们只看差异的话，对于这些公司里的任何人来说，能在一年间从零到五十的增长，这是一种少见的、特别的挑战。但即使你有个产品在初期被广泛采纳，我认为接下来达到999万美元收入的过程需要更传统的竞争壁垒。问题在于，即便分销不是件容易事，假设你只是第一个有这个创意，并且因为它的新颖性能在Reddit上火了，那么接下来你需要依靠一些传统的方式让公司变得真正强大，比如产品开发速度、产品的深度、为客户服务的能力或社交互动等。所以，如果你考虑一下陪伴类产品，关键在于找到为什么某个公司能主导这个行业的理由。

There's a version of a companion business or any business with paid spend and you know this really well that is like just a treadmill. I make money, but I have to keep putting money in. It's the opposite of compounding. And if I like stop working hard or other people compete with me, like the treadmill gets steeper or I fall off. And I think one simple answer is on companions, do you guys ever play the Sims growing up? Sure. Like it's very hard for me to not imagine the Sims better if the characters are like smarter and like richer in interaction and have like what looks like realistic video and voice. And so like technically instead of it just being like I'm talking to a person, it could be you know that person has some combination of memory of me, other interactions, goals, and like the media experience of them is richer. And we haven't gone there yet. But I think like there's a version of that company that's somewhere between like a companion and a game world that will be very big.

有一种模式，无论是伴侣业务还是任何带有付费开支的业务，你们都很清楚，这种模式就像是一台跑步机。我能赚钱，但必须不断投入资金。这完全与复利相反。如果我停止努力工作，或者有人与我竞争，跑步机就会变得更陡，或者我会掉下来。 我认为一个简单的答案是关于伴侣项目。你们小时候玩过《模拟人生》吗？对我来说，很难不想象如果游戏中的角色更聪明，互动更加丰富，还具备看起来更加逼真的视频和语音，那么《模拟人生》会更好。技术上来说，这不仅仅是与人对话，而是那个人可能具备对我的记忆、有其他互动、目标，以及更加丰富的媒体体验。 我们还没有达到那个水平，但我认为在伴侣和游戏世界之间，有一种模式的公司将会变得非常大。

It's kind of an interesting exercise. Well, if I could just get to a million, then I've increased my likelihood. And then maybe I can get that to 10 and then 100 and then a billion. I actually firmly believe that if something can scale to 10 million, there it may take a while. But if it can get to 10, it can almost always get to 100. Like there's enough people in the world to make that work. But it's actually an interesting exercise to think of all the things that you need to do in order to make those jumps. Now getting it to a billion, I've actually that's been hard for me to figure out how to do that. But that's a fun exercise to think. Well, if I can just get to a million, I bet you I can get to 10. And if I get to 10, I know for a fact I can get to 100.

这其实是一个有趣的练习。嗯，如果我能达到一百万，我的成功概率就增加了。然后也许我可以把这个数字增加到一千万，然后一亿，甚至十亿。我确实坚信，如果某个东西能扩展到一千万，它总有可能扩展到一亿，虽然这可能需要一些时间。因为世界上有足够多的人来实现这个目标。但是，考虑为了实现这些跳跃，你需要做的所有事情其实是一个有趣的练习。现在，达到十亿是我一直难以弄明白的。但是这个练习很有趣。嗯，如果我能达到一百万，我敢打赌我能达到一千万。而且如果我达到了一千万，我知道我能达到一亿。

Yeah, by the way, the Sims lifetime sales $5 billion. So without AI, the Sims was able to get to $5 billion in sales. If you made it more engaging by AI powering all those characters, that's going to be even stickier. It's going to be a big business, right? Hey, Sarah, why dude, you're like pretty in the know, fuck this fun thing. Like why don't you just go do this? The size of the beyond these go make one. This sounds way more fun than investing in it. I get to I like really like doing the zero to one thing repeatedly, right? And so I think you just have to figure out what you're motivated by.

是的，顺便说一下，《模拟人生》的总销量达到了50亿美元。因此，没有人工智能的情况下，《模拟人生》也能卖到50亿美元。如果用人工智能来增强这些角色的互动性，这游戏将会变得更加吸引人，成为一个大生意，对吧？嘿，Sarah，你这么内行，为什么还要缠着这件有趣的事不放？为什么不自己去做一个呢？这听起来比只是投资要有趣多了。我真的很喜欢从无到有地创建东西，所以我觉得你得搞清楚是什么在驱动你。

I am really motivated by working with people that are entrepreneurs that I like and respect and I think are super special. And I do not like working with people that that I don't have as much enthusiasm about. Right. That's like a very specific personality trait and like law of large numbers as soon as you manage very large teams, not everybody is going to be at the same level. And so like doing investing, like making being able to contribute to other people being successful that are really special. And then the competitive nature of be right with skin in the game and then know what is happening.

我真的受到了与我喜欢和尊重的创业者一起工作的激励，因为我认为他们非常特别。而且，我不喜欢和那些我没有太大热情的人一起工作。对吧？这是一种非常具体的性格特征。当你管理非常大的团队时，按大数法则来说，并不是每个人都能达到同一水平。所以做投资让我有机会帮助那些特别的人取得成功。此外，竞争的本质在于参与其中并了解正在发生的事情，这也让我感到激动。

Like I like all of that, but I never say never. And we incubate companies where like it's essentially like, oh, I see it, I see it, I see it. And then there's frustration that like the right, you know, a set of people you're really excited to back just hasn't come together around a certain idea. Sean, you are more technical than me, but you're still not technical. I would say, but you're more than me. But a Sam Park classic compliment. Thank you very much. You're not a technical, you're more technical than me, but you're not technical. You're almost good looking. You're out of the me, but I'm a long year three. Did you, when you're, I know you've been like studying this stuff, when you like, this seems like a really fun weekend thing just to play with.

像我喜欢所有这些，但我从不说永不。我们孵化公司时，总是会有那种“哦，我看到了，看到了，看到了”的感觉，然后就会感到挫败，因为你真正想支持的一群合适的人还没能聚集在某个想法周围。肖恩，你比我更有技术，但你还不算是技术派，我会这么说。你比我更懂技术。但这是个典型的Sam Park式的称赞。非常感谢。你不是技术达人，但比我强。你差不多算是帅哥，你比我帅，但高手在年三。我知道你一直在研究这些东西，这看起来像是个非常有趣的周末项目，可以试着玩玩。

Are these actually, would it be really hard for me to learn how to do this? Would it be hard to build one of these? Just like a really simple project because I now, she's, Sarah's getting me all hyped on this show. I'm like, this looks really fun to mess around with. Yeah, I mean, I think it's like anything else. You got it. You'd have to have a partner to speed you up. Like you learning to code to be able to do these things. It would be the slow way of doing it versus the easy way is you find an engineer who's excited about this and doesn't have clarity of vision around it. Maybe doesn't have a, doesn't want to run the business side of things and you say, great, hey, let's build X together. I have a clear idea that X will work, and I'll handle the marketing side. You got to make this product do do this. And that's not so hard. That's pretty easy. This is exciting. You can see a lot of cool shit.

这些东西对我来说学习起来会不会真的很难？自己动手做一个会不会很难？只是一个非常简单的项目，因为现在Sarah把我带动得很有兴趣。 我觉得这个看起来真的很好玩。是的，我觉得这就像其他事情一样。你得找到一个搭档来加快进度。例如，你自己学编程来做这些事情，那会是比较慢的方式。相对而言，更简单的方法是找到一个对这个项目感兴趣但没有明确愿景的工程师，他也许不想管业务方面的事情。然后你可以说，"很好，嘿，我们一起来做X。我很明确X会有用，我来负责市场营销。你只要让这个产品实现这个功能就行了。" 这样其实不太难，这很简单。这真是令人兴奋，你可以看到很多很酷的东西。

Let's do some of your specific kind of thesis. So you have this website, Conviction.com. Good website, by the way. How did you get that domain? I'm an internet person. Yeah. Okay. Did you see her website? She has a website for her. I think it's the incubator where you got to like code in order to get access it. You don't really code, but like the menu is set up like that. It's a little, yeah, it's a little CLI. What's that URL? I think it was called commit. It was like our program for like hackathons, college students, etc. Yeah. Commit.conviction.com, Sean. It's a pretty cool website, actually. Oh, you open up. It's a terminal. Yeah. Oh, God. Let me see. Let me try to do this. So run. No. Run. You just got to break it. Yeah. Job.html. You got to type in help. So if you type in help, it like gives you the menu anyway. It's like a folder. I don't know. I don't know how to do this.

让我们做一些你擅长的论文研究吧。你有一个网站，网址是Conviction.com。顺便说一下，网站很好。你是怎么拿到这个域名的？我是个网络人。哦，对了，你看过她的网站吗？她有一个网站，我想是一个孵化器项目，你需要编程才能访问这个网站。其实不用真的编程，但菜单的设计类似那样，它有点像命令行界面。那个网址是什么？我记得好像是Commit，是我们为黑客马拉松、大学生等设立的项目。对，网址是commit.conviction.com，Sean。这个网站其实挺酷的。你打开后会看到它是一个终端界面。哦天哪，让我看看。我试试看运行。没用。你只需要破解它。对，输入job.html。你要输入help。如果你输入help，它会显示菜单。就像是一个文件夹。我还是不太会搞定这个。

All right. So you have a website with a bunch of basically like request for startups or things that you think are going to be built in AI. So let's run through some of these because that's actually why initially was like we got to have her on the pod to kind of talk some of these out. So let's do one that's you call your personal seller. Do you remember this? You might have wrote this a while back, but your personal seller. It might have been one like my partner, Pronov Redis or something, but we can certainly talk about it. Yeah. Okay. I'll give you the summary. So the summary is your personal seller. I think the idea here is that there's a bunch of places online to sell stuff at C and eBay and Amazon and a bunch of different places to sell things. But actually doing that is a bunch of work like creating the store listings, changing prices, writing the copy, all of that. And I think what you're saying is somebody should be able to just like have a product and then the AI should be able to like do the actual ecom management of the setting up the shop and running it. Is that what that means? Yeah. I think like it's probably it matches like a larger theme that I really think is exciting about AI, which is like because all of these skills and it could be run a basic like social marketing campaign, right? Or like send email to your customers that are likely to be repeat customers or improve your website for indexing. Like there are a bunch of things that are probably not related to let's say it's a let's say it's a Shopify drop shipping store for like a particular type of sock and you love socks as an entrepreneur, it's not like related to the merchandise decision or the design decision of like what is the sock I want to give the world. Right. And like that's kind of the essence of like why like sometimes people become entrepreneurs. And so can you can you take a bunch of these tasks that require skills and all these different domains and just automate them at least at a basic level? Like I think you can now, right? And I think like that there are the platforms Shopify and Square, etc. They're like, you know, they now have native assistant products that help you use the platforms better. But I think across the spectrum of how to be a good internet entrepreneur, like in the e-commerce sense, I think there's more opportunity there.

好的。那么你有一个网站，上面有一堆创业请求或者你认为将在AI领域构建的东西。所以让我们来逐一讨论其中一些，因为这实际上是我们最初决定请你来播客的原因，想聊聊这些想法。让我们先谈谈你称之为“个人销售员”的那个。还记得吗？你可能是很久以前写的，不过还是聊聊这个吧。可能是我的合伙人Pronov Redis写的一篇，但我们肯定可以讨论它。好，我给你总结一下。这个概念叫“个人销售员”，我认为这个想法是这样的：网上有很多平台可以卖东西，比如eBay和Amazon等各种平台。但是实际操作非常麻烦，比如创建商品列表、修改价格、撰写商品描述等等。我认为你的意思是应该有一个AI能够完成所有这些电子商务管理工作，包括设立商店和运营。这是不是你的意思？ 对，我认为这个想法符合一个我非常看好的有关AI的更大主题，那就是这些技能都可以被AI掌握和执行。比如运行一个基础的社交营销活动、发送电子邮件给可能成为回头客的客户、或者优化你的网站以便更好地被索引。这些事情与假设一个Shopify上卖某种袜子并热爱袜子的创业者所需的商品决策或设计决策并没有直接关联。有时候这就是人们成为创业者的本质所在。那么能否将这些涉及不同领域技能的任务至少在基础层面上自动化呢？我认为现在是可以的。而且像Shopify和Square等平台，现在都有原生的助手产品，帮助用户更好地使用平台。但我认为在如何成为一个好的互联网创业者尤其是电子商务的层面上，还存在更多的机会。

How do companies do that now? So let's just say you're a company with 10,000 SKUs. How do you get accurate descriptions for all of them? Well, usually if you have 10,000 SKUs, you have like, it's a they have like, you don't have 10,000 unique, totally variant. Yeah, but you get a size variance, things like that. So like I'll give you, I'll tell you in our case, right? So I have an e-com store and we have, we spend, let's see, probably like five or six grand a month on just Shopify per plus or whatever, like the enterprise Shopify thing. So that's just the Shopify cost. On top of that, I would say we probably have another three to five grand a month on Shopify apps. So you need an app for search. You need an app for bundles. You need an app for this, that, you know, there's like a ton of things that Shopify doesn't provide.

现在公司们是怎么做的呢？假设你是一家拥有10,000个SKU的公司，你如何为它们提供准确的描述呢？通常情况下，如果你有10,000个SKU，你并不是拥有10,000个完全不同的、独特的产品，而是有一些尺寸、颜色等方面的变体。我举个例子来说吧，比如我们自家的电商店铺。我们每个月大概在Shopify的企业版上花费五六千美元。这仅仅是Shopify的基本费用。除此之外，我们每个月还需要为Shopify的应用支付额外的三到五千美元。你需要一个用于搜索的应用，需要一个用于捆绑销售的应用，还需要各种其他功能的应用，Shopify本身不提供这些服务。

So my all in just software cost is at least 10 grand a month, probably a little bit more on top of the fees they take of every transaction. Then I have an e-commerce store manager. His job is just to like run the store, like we have new products coming up, make sure those launches go well, move things around. Oh, this is broken. There's a bug, whatever. We then have a merchandiser. The merchandiser goes every day, looks at the collections and says, this thing is sold out. It shouldn't be at the top anymore. We don't have sizes for this or we don't have colors for this. So let me move this other thing to the top or hey, the season just ended. These need to be rearranged. So there's a human being that does that.

所以，我每个月在软件上的总花费至少是一万美元，可能还要再加上一些每笔交易的手续费。然后我有一个电商店铺经理。他的工作是管理店铺，比如说我们有新品上市，他要确保发布顺利进行，调整商品位置，修复问题和故障等等。接着我们还有一个商品管理员。这个管理员每天都会查看商品集合，确定哪些商品已经售罄，不应该再排在前面了，哪些尺码或颜色缺货，并做出调整。比如，季节结束了，需要重新安排商品位置，总之这些事情是由一个专人来处理的。

There's also apps that do that, but you kind of need the app plus the software today because the app's not quite good enough to do it by itself. We then have VAs that go in and they do all the product pages, the descriptions, the templates, the tagging so that our inventory data is correct because we need to be able to analyze our inventory to do that. You need to tag every product accurately.

还有一些应用程序也能做到这一点，但目前你需要同时使用该应用程序和软件，因为单靠应用程序还不够好。然后我们会有虚拟助手（VAs）来处理所有的产品页面、描述、模板和标签，以确保我们的库存数据是正确的，因为我们需要能够分析我们的库存。为了做到这一点，你需要准确地标记每个产品。

So there is like four or five people that are just making sure the store runs in addition to five apps that make the store run. That all today shouldn't be the elite, like future state of things. That's just the current state of things. And Sean, I think the future state is for entrepreneurs who cannot recruit, manage, pay the five people it takes to run your store. Like, what do they do, as Sam said? Like, I think it will be easier in the future. I think this is also kind of similar as an idea to all of the another area that we are, and I'm personally really interested in is the voice automation market.

所以，现在大概有四五个人在确保商店的正常运营，同时还有五个应用程序在辅助运营。这种情况不应该是未来的理想状态，只是目前的现状。而我认为，未来的状态是为了那些无法招募、管理、支付这五个人的企业家们。正如Sam所说，他们该怎么办？我认为未来会更容易。我个人也对另一个领域非常感兴趣，那就是语音自动化市场，这和我们的想法有些相似。

I think a lot of your listeners will have seen the GPT-4O demo where it's a voice that may or may not sound like ScarJo talking in real time. Well, we played with 11 Labs. But that's dubbing. She's talking about just being able to like Alexa, you just talk to it, and it just talks back and it'll sound like Scarlett Johansson just like chat GPT, but you don't have to type. Yeah, but both of these things either like it could be in your voice or like some spokesperson for a brand or a company, but like the ability to give reasoned, you know, knowledge-based responses in a human voice, I think it's just really powerful, right? And I don't think people are thinking enough about the opportunities here where you mentioned 11.

我觉得很多听众可能已经看过了GPT-4O的演示，其中的语音可能听起来像斯嘉丽·约翰逊在实时对话。我们试过11 Labs。不过那是配音。她谈的是类似Alexa的功能，就是你对它说话，它会用声音回复你，而且听起来像斯嘉丽·约翰逊，就像聊天GPT，但你不需要打字。对，这两种技术都可以像是用你的声音，或是像某个品牌或公司的代言人一样，但拥有用人类语音提供有理有据和知识性回应的能力，我认为这非常强大。不过我觉得大家还没有足够重视这里面的机会，你提到的11也是如此。

There's like exactly one independent voice API business in tens of millions of revenue, and that's 11. They're great. That's amazing. I think there are other opportunities. So like, there's a company called Cartija that does like more real-time voice, for example. You think 11 is, by the way, 11 Labs, you think they're at tens of millions in revenue? They are definitely at, you know, a large number that is in the tens of millions of revenue. I'm not surprising a market with that. But, you know, a lot of developers who immediately gravitate toward API business, but that is not how the rest, like the world is full of niches and people running businesses that don't think about APIs and won't use them, right?

可以说，在年收入达到数千万美元的独立语音API企业中，目前只有一家，那就是11 Labs。他们做得非常出色，非常令人惊叹。我认为还有其他的机会。例如，有一家名为Cartija的公司，他们主要做的是实时语音业务。你认为11 Labs的收入达到了数千万美元吗？没错，他们的收入确实是在数千万美元这个量级的。我对此并不惊讶。不过，虽然很多开发者会立即倾向于API业务，但实际上，世界上充满了各种细分市场和不考虑使用API的企业。

And so like, just to just like, you know, your personal seller, I think there are going to be a bunch of interesting voice services for everything from restaurants to HVAC companies to dental reception that are just like, answer the phone. I think that's one of the ideas we had. And it could be informational. Like, we are open from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. or a lead generation business where I'm like, well, like my plumbing broke and like, are you available tomorrow at 3 p.m.? I'm a huge believer in this. Huge. Like, I'm one, Sean. This simple idea. So, you know, like, when the internet came out, it was like, oh, it's going to be so crazy. But like, one of the obvious things was like, hey, every restaurant just kind of needs their menu online.

所以，就像你的个人销售一样，我认为将会有一系列有趣的语音服务，适用于从餐馆到暖通公司，再到牙科接待等各种领域，这些服务就是用来接电话的。我认为这是我们曾经有过的一个想法。这种服务可以提供信息，比如“我们的营业时间是早上8点到下午6点”，也可以用于潜在客户生成，比如“我的管道坏了，你们明天下午3点有空吗”。我对这种想法非常有信心，非常。就像互联网刚出现的时候，人们觉得会有很多疯狂的事情发生，但其中一个很明显的需求就是每个餐馆都需要在线菜单。

Like, you should put your, you should put your restaurant exists where it's located and then put your menu up there, even as a PDF that's still like value add for you. It's like, it became where every business needed a website. And now what I think it's going to have is that every business needs an agent. And so what's the agent for most small businesses? So like, I call pest control, because we always get a little bunch of like mice jumping in our pool for whatever reason. And try calling pest control. Nobody ever picks up the damn phone. And because there's usually, it's usually run by like, it's like Mike's pest control and Mike's out in the field doing things all day.

就是说，你应该在你的网站上明确地标出你的餐馆的位置，然后把菜单也放上去，哪怕是PDF格式的也可以，这样对你来说还是有价值的。就像以前每个企业都需要有一个网站一样，现在我认为每个企业都需要有一个代理人。那么，对于大多数小企业来说，代理人是什么呢？比如，我打电话找灭虫公司，因为我们家的游泳池总是有很多老鼠跳进去。打电话找灭虫公司，但是没人接电话。因为通常这些公司是像“迈克的灭虫公司”这样的，迈克整天都在外面干活，根本没时间接电话。

Controlling the patch. Actually doing work. And so he doesn't pick up the phone. And so then you leave a message and you're like, you, and then, but you call 10 of them because you're not sure if Mike's gonna get back to you. So then it becomes whoever gets back to you first. Mike loses his business because Mike doesn't pick up the phone. Mike also is not going to hire somebody to just sit there and wait for the three phone calls a day that he's going to get. It just wouldn't make sense.

控制这个区域。真正地做工作。所以他不接电话。于是你就留言，你说你，然后，但是你又打了10个电话，因为你不确定 Mike 会不会回你电话。所以谁先回你电话，谁就得到了生意。Mike 失去了生意，因为他不接电话。而且，Mike 也不会雇一个人只是为了每天接三通电话，那样做不划算。

But now you go and I built one of these in our like AI, like, weekly tutoring session that I have basically. I was like, I want to build one of these. So we have the same problem for our offshore recruiting business. So we own a off-shore recruiting business called Somewhere. It's like, you can fire tip. You can find amazing talent. They're just somewhere out in the world. You just have to find them. So what Somewhere does, they find you elite talent.

但现在你去做，我基本上在我们的 AI 每周辅导课上建了一个。我当时想，我要建一个这种东西。所以我们在海外招聘业务中也遇到了同样的问题。我们有一家叫做 "Somewhere" 的海外招聘公司。你可以找到优秀的人才，他们只是散布在世界的某个地方，你只需要找到他们。所以 Somewhere 会帮你找到顶尖人才。

Now the big problem, if you go to Somewhere dot com, it's like, you say, okay, I'm looking for a designer or I need somebody who could do, who get me leads for my marketing business or my real estate business, or I need somebody to do data entry, right? So you have all these jobs. Now the button on the site is basically like, you want to start hiring? Fill out this form. So you fill out the form and then it's like, awesome, we will get back to you soon. Or it's like schedule a call. Here's the call tomorrow or two days from now. And no matter how many sales agents we have, a call tomorrow is not as good as talk to me right now about what I need.

现在有一个大问题，如果你访问了某个网站，比如你说，我在找一名设计师，或者我需要一个能为我的营销业务或者房地产业务带来潜在客户的人，或者我需要有人做数据录入，对吧？所以这里有各种各样的工作需求。现在网站上的按钮基本上是这样的：你想开始招聘吗？请填写这张表格。然后你填完表格后，网站会说，太好了，我们会尽快回复你。或者是安排一个电话，电话约在明天或后天。但是，无论我们有多少销售代理，明天的电话都不如现在直接和我讨论我的需求。

Because right now is when I'm interested, right now is when I'm on your website, right now is when I'm not thinking about other variations of how I might solve this problem. And you have an opportunity to sell me. And so Sam, I don't know if you've seen this, but like check out bland.ai. This is one I have built. If the answer is, have you seen this? Assume it's no. And my mind is being blown by all this stuff. But basically, it lets you build a phone agent for yourself.

因为我现在感兴趣，我现在就在你的网站上，我现在没有想着用其他方式解决这个问题。你有机会向我推销。所以，Sam，我不知道你有没有看到过这个，去看看 bland.ai 吧，这是我做的一个项目。如果你问我有没有见过，假设我的答案是没有，我现在正被这些东西震撼到。但基本上，它可以让你为自己创建一个电话代理。

So I went on here and I built a phone agent. So I built a guy who can answer the phone so that when somebody goes to somewhere and they want to, they want to hire somebody, it'll be like, awesome, what are you hiring for? Have you ever hired overseas? And you're like, yeah, I have. It's like, cool. Tell me what you're looking for in a couple, you know, a couple sentences. Oh, great. It sounds like what you're looking for is somebody who could be a developer for your Shopify store. Our normal budget for that is 2000 a month. Would that work for you? Or are you looking for something a little bit more a little bit less? And then an answer is, it basically does the intake, the initial sales call for you.

所以我在这里创建了一个电话助理。我做了一个可以接电话的助手，当有人去某个地方并且想雇人时，他可以像这样说：太棒了，你在招聘什么职位？你有在海外招聘过吗？然后你回答：有的。他会继续说：好的，请用几句话描述一下你在寻找什么样的人选。哦，听起来你需要的是一位可以为你的Shopify商店开发项目的开发人员。我们通常的预算是每月2000美元，这对你来说合适吗？或者你是想要一个预算高一点还是低一点的？这样，这个助理就会为你进行初步的需求采集和销售电话。

And it's like, no problem. We've hired this month for 85 other Shopify brands who are looking for Shopify developers. You're in good hands. We do this all the time. We will, I'm going to start looking for candidates. Now, I'm going to email you tomorrow with three candidates. How does that sound? And the person's like, great. I guess I can just like wait for that to happen or it'll pull from our existing database. I'd be like, here's an example resume. This is the type of person we'd be looking for with this person, fit your needs. Yes or no.

没问题。这个月我们已经为85个需要Shopify开发人员的Shopify品牌招聘过了。你放心，我们非常有经验。现在我就开始寻找候选人，明天会给你发邮件介绍三个候选人。这样可以吗？ 对方会说，太好了。我可以等着事情进展，或者我可以从我们现有的数据库中挑选。我会提供一个简历样本，让你看看这是我们在找的类型，这个人符合你的需求吗？是还是不是。

So then the human salesperson will come into work and see a ticket that's like the AI agent did the initial sales call and found the customer's requirements and kind of already warmed the sale up and told the customer what they needed to know, the things you repeat every time on the phone. And now you could follow up with the more bespoke answer for that person. That's the future that I see. I wasn't able to fully build that. I did like a prototype of it. But that's what I think websites, even like ours, which is an internet business should have, which means that every plumbing and pest control and restaurant, they're going to have their version of that.

然后，人类销售人员上班时会看到一个任务单，上面显示AI代理已经进行过初步的销售电话，了解了客户的需求，并且为销售做了初步的铺垫，向客户介绍了他们需要了解的基本信息，这些信息是你每次通话中都会重复的内容。现在，你可以根据这个基础信息，为每个客户提供更个性化的回答。这是我对未来的设想。我没能完全实现这个目标，我做了一个原型，但我认为即使是像我们这样从事互联网业务的网站也应该有这种功能，这意味着每个管道维修、害虫控制和餐馆等行业也都会有他们的版本。

This is 100% way better than having a call center or it might or it will be when it is long so long as it works as good. But this is absolutely the way to go. All right. Let's do some more. So you have another one on here that's, I think, an easy one. That's cool. Next gen auto complete. And I think the idea here is you do a Chrome extension or a browser extension that not just like auto complete helps you fill in the next word it thinks you're going to say or how to spell a word. But what you have here is that it starts to learn your voice. So it can write your, it can help you write your emails or your blog posts in your voice, which is kind of like the next level up from auto complete next level up from Grammarly. It doesn't just kind of correct or spell check your stuff, but it actually writes the way you write because it has watched the way you write. Is that the thesis here? Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And I think it can be, you know, lots of different types of business communication, but especially like email.

这远比有一个呼叫中心要好得多，或者说，只要它工作良好，它将会是一个更好的选择。这绝对是前进的方向。好吧，让我们继续吧。你这里还有另一个项目，我觉得比较简单。很酷。下一代自动补全，我认为这里的想法是创建一个Chrome扩展或浏览器扩展，不仅是自动补全帮助你填入它认为你要说的下一个词或拼写一个词。而是它开始学习你的写作风格。它可以帮助你用自己的风格写邮件或博客文章，这有点像是比自动补全或Grammarly更高级的功能。它不仅仅是校对或拼写检查，而是实际上按照你的写作方式来写，因为它观察了你的写作风格。这是这个项目的核心思想吗？是的，是的，没错。我认为它可以用于各种商业通讯，尤其是电子邮件。

So I don't know if this is this is actually my friend Mike Vernal's idea. I think he suffers from the same thing I do that might be true for you, which is like I'm an incredibly picky writer. And so I will use the models today for generation of basic content or I'll ask my amazing EA to like draft emails for me. And then I will go rewrite the whole thing, because I don't like the tone, because it doesn't sound like me or because it's not tight enough, or because I want to use a certain phrase. And I think the next level of like value and impact is definitely going to be fine tuning to specific voice. And nobody wants to write like Chappie GBT, like nobody wants to be the generic AI either. So what everybody wants is the thing in between.

所以，我不知道这是不是我朋友迈克·维纳尔的主意。我觉得他和我有同样的问题，而你可能也一样，那就是——我是个非常挑剔的写作者。因此，我现在会用模型来生成一些基础内容，或者请我了不起的行政助理帮我起草邮件，然后我会自己重写整个内容。因为我不喜欢原来的语气，觉得它听起来不像我，要么是觉得不够紧凑，或者就是想用某个特定的短语。我认为，下一步提高价值和影响力的关键，肯定是要针对特定的语音进行微调。没有人想写得像ChatGPT一样，也没有人想成为那种通用的AI。大家真正想要的是介于二者之间的东西。

This shit's all wild to me. Is there anyone right now doing that that you like? Because I would like to use this today. I mean, superhuman has like really interesting AI features, but I think the unlock is going to be the personalization. And what's your overarching investment thesis? So you have this thing called software 3.0, which by the way, most VC thing to do to be like, oh, software 3.0, web 3.0. You've done it. You've gone full VC. What is software 3.0?

这件事对我来说真是太疯狂了。现在有没有你喜欢的人在做这方面的事情？因为我想今天就用这个。我的意思是，Superhuman有一些非常有趣的AI功能，但我认为真正的突破在于个性化定制。那么，你的总体投资理念是什么？所以你提到了一个叫做软件3.0的东西，顺便说一下，这听起来就像大多数风投（VC）所说的那样，软件3.0，web 3.0。你已经完全进入风投的思维模式了。什么是软件3.0？

Yeah. Okay. So the seed for that phrase software 3.0, it comes from actually an essay that Andrei Carpathi wrote years ago about software 2.0. And the base premise here is that like you had to write a lot of software by hand in a prior generation before machine learning. And then software 2.0, Andrei worked at Tesla, was working on autopilot, was really about data set labeling, right? You are teaching a machine learning model by the data you choose to put into the pipeline, how to do new tasks.

好的。这句话里的 "software 3.0" 这个概念其实来源于 Andrei Carpathi 几年前关于 "software 2.0" 的一篇文章。基本的前提是，在机器学习出现之前，上一代的软件需要大量手工编写。而 "software 2.0" 是 Andrei 在特斯拉工作时提出的，他当时在开发自动驾驶系统，主要是关于数据集的标注。也就是说，通过选择放入模型的数据来教机器学习模型如何执行新的任务。

Software 3.0 is the idea that the next generation of software, a lot of it is about manipulating foundation models. And they're called foundation models because they have a lot of capability out of the box. You don't need to train them from scratch. You just need to give them like guidance, reinforcement, the information specific to your business. And so an example would be like Sean was talking about for his lead capture intake form voice spot. Like he doesn't need to go train a model. He doesn't need to go like collect data for that software application. Like the voice agent is a software application. He just needs to like make sure it's plugged into his scheduling system and his database of candidates and be able to retrieve the right information about the business and like, you know, respond consistently to customers in a certain tone, right? And so that's more about like manipulating a bunch of this base work that people like lads have already done for you. And the premise here is like that last mile of getting a foundation model to be like something that serves all these use cases in the real world that, you know, maybe the research labs think of as niches like the world is composed of very large niches. And so I think it's a thing is a really big opportunity for entrepreneurs and for us.

软件3.0的概念是指下一代软件主要是关于操控基础模型的。这些模型被称为基础模型，因为它们开箱即用，具备很多功能。你不需要从头开始训练它们，只需给予指导、强化和特定于你业务的信息即可。例如，像Sean提到的他的线索捕获 intake 表单语音机器人，他不需要为这个软件应用程序去训练模型或收集数据。语音代理本身就是一个软件应用程序，他只需确保它连接到他的调度系统和候选人数据库，能够检索到关于业务的正确信息，并且以一致的语气响应客户就行了。这更多是关于利用大量已经为你完成的基础工作。这个理念是将基础模型的最后一公里转化为服务于现实世界中的各种用例，可能研究实验室认为这些用例是小众的，但事实上世界是由很多大的小众市场组成的。因此，我认为这是创业者和我们都能抓住的一个巨大机会。

What are some of your like hot takes or maybe your contrarian takes anything that you think that might be counter to what the most people say most people do most people are betting on. Do you have anything that is against the grain? You know, I'm gonna get I'm gonna give a like a somewhat arrogant answer, which is I don't spend a lot of time trying to figure out what the entire market thinks. Okay. So I'm like, I don't know which of these things are contrarian. I can tell you where like my opinion has changed dramatically. Like let me give you one example for many years in including, you know, the tenure of my investing at Graylock. I was one of several people who were like, okay, we're gonna go understand healthcare and digital health. And I was like, Oh, healthcare sucks, right? It's a quarter of the economy. It's really important. How could you not want to work on this mission? But it is so slow and the incentives are so screwed up that like trying to enter that market with technology or the speed of entrepreneurship that you know, Silicon Valley entrepreneurs are seeking is like not a good idea. And we just did a healthcare administration automation company. So I'm like, oh, it's like change my mind real hypocrite here. And like one of the reasons being I'm like, well, if you think about the mind numbing work that happens in healthcare administration, like billing authorization, coding claims processing, like all like even not even mind numbing, but just like expensive and manual like patient support. It's actually really fertile for an AI company. And you know, we back something that's like growing really quickly in one of those domains. Right. And so I just say like, I guess I've changed my point of view on healthcare. I went to the pediatrician yesterday. My doctor is with my baby there and I'm sitting there and she's got her iPad on like a table. And there's a video like there. And I'm like, who the fuck is that guy? And they're like, Oh, that's just like my scribe. I he's just listening in and he's and he's taking notes. But she was like, I used to stay up until 3 a.m. taking notes on all of my patients. Oh, wow. They just do it for me. And obviously the wheels are turning my head. I'm like, yeah, that that job is going to be unnecessary in a few years. But it was amazing to have a medical scribe. I've never seen such a thing. And she's like, Oh, this has been around for a long time. I was like, I've never seen that.

你有什么个人独到的见解或是与主流观念相悖的看法吗？就是说，一些可能和大多数人的意见、行为、或押注背道而驰的想法？你有任何不走寻常路的想法吗？我要给出一个有点自负的回答，那就是我不会花太多时间去研究整个市场的想法。所以我不知道这些想法是否与众不同。但我可以告诉你我的观点发生过哪些剧变。比如说，在我在Graylock期间的许多年里，我和其他一些人一样，试图去了解健康医疗和数字健康。我当时觉得，医疗保健是个大问题，占据了经济的四分之一，真的很重要，怎么能不去研究呢？但它的进展太缓慢，激励机制也太混乱，用技术或者硅谷创业者那样的速度去进入这个市场不是个好主意。然而我们最近刚投资了一家医疗管理自动化公司，所以我的观点彻底改变了，我感觉自己有点虚伪。改变的原因之一是，当你想到医疗管理中的那些枯燥的工作，比如账单授权、编码、理赔处理，甚至不仅仅是枯燥，而且昂贵和手工的东西，比如患者支持，这实际上对于人工智能公司来说是非常肥沃的土壤。而我们支持的某个公司在这方面发展得非常快。所以我只是想说，我在医疗领域的观点变了。昨天我带孩子去见儿科医生，我的医生坐在那里，桌子上放着一个iPad，屏幕上有一个人，我问她那是谁，她说，那是她的抄写员，他在听她的诊断并记笔记。她说她以前要熬到凌晨3点为所有病人记笔记，现在这些都有人帮她做了。显然我在想，这份工作在几年后可能不再需要了。但有个医疗抄写员真的很棒，我从来没见过这样的事。医生说，这已经存在很久了，但我从没见过。

Yeah, I do need one framework for like your listeners, like thinking about different ideas is like, what parts of work have been outsourced services already? Right? Because like it used to be the doctor taking the notes. And they're like, wow, we pay this person a lot. And like they should see more patients and think about their patients more like, let us outsource that to a cheaper tech in our office. Let us like outsource that tech to endear the Philippines. And now there are a number of scribe businesses in medicine that are growing really fast, like a bridge, nobla freed, like it is happening. And so I think that will happen in a bunch of different areas where like basically if you can create separation of that work already to outsource it, then maybe you can outsource it to a machine as well.

是的，我确实需要一个框架来帮助听众思考不同的想法。比如，哪些工作部分已经被外包成服务了呢？过去，医生需要自己做笔记。后来，人们觉得我们付给医生这么高的薪水，他们应该多看些病人，更多地关注病人的情况，所以就把这部分工作外包给我们办公室里薪资较低的技术人员。再后来，我们又把这些工作外包给菲律宾的技术人员。现在，在医学领域有不少速记服务公司正在快速发展，比如Bridge和Nobla Freed，这种情况确实在发生。所以，我认为在很多不同的领域，只要你能将这部分工作分离出来进行外包，就有可能也可以将它外包给机器。

Yeah, Sam, moment had a good thing. He was like, everybody worries about AI taking your job. That's not the right way to think about it. It's AI will take your tasks. Like, you have to think about it not at a job level, but at a task level, there are certain tasks it can do really well. There's certain tasks that can't do really well. There's certain tasks today, it can't do that in the future it can do. And so eventually a job becomes a bundle of tasks. But for now, it's you can't think of the whole bundle because it can't replace the whole job, but it can replace specific tasks, which might be just the way it works in the long run is that there's a huge slew of tasks that can be done by AI. And then there's people that bundle those tasks together to make sure that they're getting done well or at the right time.

好的，萨姆有个不错的观点。他说，大家都担心人工智能会夺走你的工作，但这种想法不对。应该想成，人工智能会取代你的某些任务。你要从任务的角度去思考，而不是从工作的角度。某些任务它做得非常好，有些任务它做得不太好，而有些任务现在它做不了，但将来可能能做。所以，最终一份工作变成了多个任务的组合。但目前来看，你不能把整个工作当成一个整体来思考，因为人工智能无法完全取代整份工作，但它可以取代其中的某些特定任务。长期来看，可能会有大量的任务由人工智能完成，而人类需要把这些任务组合起来，确保它们被很好地完成或者在正确的时间完成。

I think that's like approximately right. But to be intellectually honest, like that there was a scribe in that outsourced BPO that had that job. And so it's not taking the doctor's job, but it's taking the piece of the job that like the doctor's job that already got separated out the task that they didn't like. But that became a job of its own. Yeah, the job goes back to being a task basically in this case. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. It's a good framework. Sarah, are you are you investing exclusively in AI-related businesses? I am a technology investor. I'm not a machine learning researcher. I've been working on this stuff for a handful of years. And I really believe it. I think it was like the most important thing to happen in technology in a long time. But I'd say like I'm also here just, you know, investing great tech companies. And so you're also here to get paid. I am also here to work on things that will work that are important. Right. And so like if an entrepreneur that I think super highly of or like that I've worked with before or whatever comes to me and says like, I have a great idea, nothing to do with AI, I'm still definitely going to be really interested in that. If you ask me like, what are the ideas that we think about or are hunting, it is all in AI.

我觉得那基本上是对的。但要诚实地说，当时有一个外包的BPO文书负责这项工作。所以这并不是抢医生的工作，而是把已经被分离出来、医生不喜欢做的那部分工作拿走了，但那部分工作已经变成了一种独立的职位。在这种情况下，那些工作又变成了一项任务。对，这是一个很好的框架。萨拉，你现在只投资于与AI相关的业务吗？ 我是一个科技投资者，不是机器学习研究者。我在这个领域工作了好几年，并且真的相信它。我认为这可能是科技领域很长时间以来最重要的事情。但我也会投资于优秀的科技公司。所以，你来这也是为了赚钱？我也是来做一些重要的事情的。如果有一个我非常看重的企业家，或者我之前合作过的人，来找我说有一个跟AI无关的好主意，我仍然会非常感兴趣。但如果你问我，我们在思考或寻找的想法是什么，那么毫无疑问都是关于AI的。

I do want to put one more thing out there, which is definitely not a idea that just anyone can go after. It's kind of the opposite of the like easy wedge idea in terms of how can I put distribution around like one functionality for a niche on a model like a AI headshot application or something. But I do really want to hear from anyone who has a point of view on what happens to the like Nvidia compute monopoly and overall what's changing in the data center. I don't know if this is a hot take to your former question, but like I think a lot of people intellect in technology really, the intellectual like are like, oh yes, of course, workloads are changing from not AI to AI, but they don't actually think about like what that means in terms of scale and market cap. Like that means like chips, memory bandwidth, networking, energy, storage, optimized system design. Like that was a lot of technology company market cap before.

我确实想再提一个想法，这个想法并不是每个人都能轻易去实现的。这有点像是与简单切入点的完全相反，要思考如何围绕一个功能在一个特定模型上实现分发，比如一个AI头像应用之类的。但我真的很想听听大家对Nvidia计算垄断以及数据中心整体变化的看法。我不知道这是否回应了你之前的问题，但我觉得很多技术界人士确实认为，工作负载正在从非AI转向AI，但他们并没有真正考虑这在规模和市值方面意味着什么。这意味着芯片、内存带宽、网络、能源、存储和优化系统设计的需求会大幅增加。这些此前也是很多科技公司的市值来源。

And so like if that's true, there's going to be a bunch of different like new specialized solutions and it's trillions of dollars of value at stake. And it's not just like single direct attack on Nvidia that is like the opportunity. What else would be in that category? If it's not just like, hey, our chip is better than Nvidia's chip. What else is what is it? What's another shape of a company that could be in that that space? So I guess an example would be like, well, what are other bottlenecks like memory bandwidth? What like what if you design storage to be specific for AI data centers? What if you like you could do cooling systems? Like there are, if you just reimagine the entire data center around like big AI inference, I think you end up with like totally different needs.

所以，如果这是真的，就会出现许多新的专业化解决方案，而且这涉及到数万亿美元的价值。而且，这不仅仅是对Nvidia的单一直接攻击，也就是所谓的机会。那么，还有什么会在那个类别中？如果不仅仅是说“嘿，我们的芯片比Nvidia的芯片更好”，那还有什么呢？在那个领域可能会出现的另一种公司形态是什么？ 我猜一个例子是，其他的瓶颈是什么，例如内存带宽。如果你设计专门用于AI数据中心的存储呢？如果你设计冷却系统呢？如果你重新想象整个数据中心围绕着大型AI推理构建，你会发现它有完全不同的需求。

The the New York Times had this article the other day. I don't remember the stat entirely, but it was something like the amount of AI capacity or in chips like currently created right now. We need to create like another like four trillion dollars in market cap in order to satisfy like the amount of capacity that we have. And they were sort of writing it in a way of like I don't know if we're going to be able to do that. But then when you think about it, the other way around where you think about, well, in 1998, if you said like, you know, how big is the internet going to be? I'm sure it went far beyond virtually 100% of the experts opinion as to how big it will get.

《纽约时报》前几天有一篇文章，我不完全记得具体的数据，但大概意思是当前创造的芯片中的AI容量，需要再创造大约四万亿美元的市场价值，才能满足现有的容量需求。文章写的语气有点像在说，我们不确定能否做到这一点。但反过来想，在1998年，如果你问互联网将会有多大，我敢肯定，它的规模远远超过了几乎所有专家的预期。

And I remember reading this article the other day, and I was like, that's just absolutely astounding that we're in one of these moments. Sequoia. Sequoia came out with a sort of blog post or I don't know, PDF or something like that about this, the thing they called it the $600 billion hole or something. It was basically saying, well, we've invested this much or we're investing this much in CapEx. So if you invest that much in CapEx, what do you need to get out to make that, you know, return? That's a VC saying that, which is which is not just like some journalist who doesn't get it, who doesn't get tech. Sarah, what was your reaction to that? What's your take on that?

我记得前几天读过一篇文章，当时就觉得，天哪，我们正处在这样一个时刻，真是令人惊叹。红杉资本发布了一篇类似博客文章或PDF之类的东西，说的是一个叫做6000亿美元的洞之类的东西。基本上是说，我们已经在资本支出上投入了这么多或者正在投入这么多。所以，如果你在资本支出上投资了这么多，你需要得到多少回报才能实现预期回报？这可是一个风险投资公司说的，不是那些不懂科技的记者说的。萨拉，你对此有何反应？你的看法是什么？

I think it is a lot of CapEx. I think if you put it in context of like, how does it compare to other big CapEx spends in the past, let's say like the broadband build out, like, well, we wanted the internet, you know, like we spent about $2 trillion on broadband to date. Like, we're not there yet, right? That was worth it. And so what I would say is, yes, like, it's a totally valid question. We're spending a lot of money. What are we going to get out of it?

我觉得这是一个很大的资本支出。如果放在历史上其他大型资本支出项目的背景下来看，比如说宽带建设，我们当初也想要互联网啊，为此我们迄今为止花了大约2万亿美元，但这仍然是值得的。所以我会说，没错，这是一个完全合理的问题：我们花了这么多钱，那我们能得到什么呢？

I think we're going to get a lot of value. We had Darmesh on the Darmesh founded HubSpot. Darmesh is amazing. Yeah, he's really wise. And he tends to be right more than he's wrong. And I think he said something great when I asked him, I'm like, man, I'm a little nervous about a lot of the stuff where the world is going to go. And he's like, well, I'm fairly educated. And I think that it's not going to be as good or bad as you think it's going to be. Do you agree with that sentiment?

我认为我们会得到很多有价值的信息。我们请到了达梅什（Darmesh），他是HubSpot的创始人。达梅什非常出色，他真的很有智慧，并且他的看法往往比错误的时候多。我问他一个问题时，他说了一些非常棒的话。我当时告诉他，我对世界的发展方向感到有点紧张。他回答说：“嗯，我受过相当好的教育，我认为事情不会像你想的那样好，也不会像你想的那样坏。” 你同意他的这个看法吗？

No, I think it's actually pretty bimodal. I think it'd be like bad or and it's like, it could be much, much better. Great. It's the opposite. It's either going to be much worse or much better. It's got to take. What's the bad situation look like? Like, for example, I think the bad situation, and I'm fairly uneducated. So take it with the greatest salt. The very bad situation is that there's just going to be this massive gap between the halves and the halves. And like, if you have money now, that's going to grow and you're going to be awesome. Bad situation is AI kills us all, right? That's the doom situation.

不，我认为实际上这是一个双峰分布。我觉得情况要么很糟，要么非常好。具体来说，这两种情况可能会出现：一种情况是更糟糕，另一种情况是更好。我们来看看糟糕的情况是什么样子的？ 比如说，我认为糟糕的情况是，会出现一个巨大的贫富差距。如果你现在有钱，那么你的财富会不断增长，你的情况会很好。但糟糕的情况是，人工智能把我们全都消灭了，这是最坏的情况。 需要注意的是，我的观点并不是很有见识，所以请持保留态度。

That's a bad situation. But then in route to that, there is just this massive separation of the halves and halves not. You have not. You know what I'm saying? That kind of freaks me out. What's your where do you see the bad situation going going towards? So I think it is not necessarily that correlated that your resources or your capital today mean that you most take advantage of the of the AI revolution, right? I actually think people have a lot of agency in this. I think go start these businesses, make a million dollars. That's such a small group of people.

那是个糟糕的情况。但是，在解决这个问题的过程中，社会出现了巨大的分化——有钱的人和没钱的人。你没有钱。你明白我的意思吗？这让我感到很害怕。你怎么看这个糟糕的情况，它会走向何方？我认为，不一定你今天拥有的资源或资本，就意味着你能最大限度地利用人工智能革命的机会。实际上，我认为人们在这方面有很多自主权。我认为要去创业，赚一百万。这只是非常小的一部分人。

What does it have to be? Because of human nature, how many people know about this shit? Well, your parents are tech entrepreneurs, but go ask Sean's mom and dad. I go ask my parents, go ask my brother and sister, like, you know, I'm not entrepreneurial. Even if this widens the number of people who can be successfully entrepreneurial, it's not going to like, it's going to go from 0.1% or whatever, 1% of the population to, I don't know, not 50, right? And that is not going to go that far.

这究竟为什么会这样？由于人性的问题，有多少人真正了解这些东西？好了，你的父母是科技企业家，但你可以去问问肖恩的父母。我去问问我的父母，去问问我的兄弟姐妹，你知道吗，我并不是一个企业家。即使这能增加成功创业的人数，它也不会变成像50%的比例，而可能是从0.1%或者1%上升到一个不太大的数字。所以，这个改变的幅度并不会很大。

Yeah, I don't know if it has to express in pure entrepreneurialism versus like, you will get increased productivity for people in lots of different types of jobs. And it's not obvious to me that's like just the people who are already most highly paid today. You're somebody who thinks a lot about AI. You spend your time in the AI ecosystem. A lot of very smart people are actually worried about the doom scenario from Elon Musk to we had Emmett Sheer on the podcast and Emmett's a smart thoughtful guy. And he's like, you know, the P doom, the probability of actual doom here is it's pretty scary. It's not zero. And here's, you know, here's where I think it is. What do you think about that? What are the odds that AI truly is sort of like a critically dangerous thing?

是的，我不确定是否需要用纯粹的企业家精神来表达这个问题，你会发现很多不同类型的工作中人们的生产力都会提高。而且在我看来，这并不明显只是那些已经是最高薪的人群。你是一个对人工智能非常关注的人，花时间在人工智能生态系统中。很多非常聪明的人实际上都在担心厄运情景，从埃隆·马斯克到我们在播客上请来的埃米特·希尔。埃米特是一个聪明而深思熟虑的人，他说，这里的厄运概率是相当可怕的，并不是零。而在这里，我想谈谈我的看法。你怎么看？人工智能真的像某些人说的那样是一种极度危险的东西的几率有多大？

You know, I don't actually spend a lot of time thinking about this problem because the because it is like conjecture in the future of both the objectives of these models and capabilities of these models that are kind of like hand wavy, right? Like, like, I think when you talk to experts about some of the suggested scenarios, like here are two classic ones. Oh, you know, people are going to use this to design a virus that kills us all, um, bio weapons or somebody is going to make the objective for a foundation model that is super powerful to be like, make the most money or generate the most paper clips. And it's going to take over all the resources in the world and kill us all. There's no linear path from here to there. And so when when people ask me about like the doom scenario, like I am much more concerned about abuses, we actually do understand. So for example, like, what if people don't understand what information is true or not, or like people are going to use this stuff for hacking and fraud and lots of like bad activities today.

你知道吗，其实我并没有花很多时间去思考这个问题，因为这就像是在对这些模型的目标和能力进行预测，有点空泛。比如，当你和专家谈论一些推测的场景时，常见的两个例子是：哦，人们会用这些技术设计出一种病毒杀死我们所有人，或者用来制造生化武器；再比如，有人会给一个非常强大的基础模型设定一个目标，比如赚钱最多或制造最多的回形针，然后它会利用世界上所有的资源，最终导致人类灭亡。事实上，从现在到那些场景之间没有一条直线。 所以，当人们问我关于末日情景的看法时，我更加担心的是我们目前确实能够理解的滥用情况。例如，人们可能无法辨别信息的真假，或者，有人会利用这些技术进行黑客攻击、诈骗和其他各种今天已经存在的恶意行为。

And like we should go understand that and react as quickly as possible to that. And as a country, like probably want to stay ahead on these capabilities technically. Well, have you heard any what are some what what's a wild example of how people use this for hacking or for fraud? Oh, I mean, like for my company, we get emails from me. It's not really me. And sometimes it will have or like it'll have a link to something that sounds like it's in my voice. Yeah, I think that's the simplest example, which is, well, like what happens if you can create really authentic sounding media, like, you know, are your parents like, you know, going to not pick up the phone if it's a spoofed phone number and it sounds like you and you say you need something, like, that's a bad scenario. And so I think we need more tools to protect against that. And general education about it. So I worry more about that. And then I'd say, like, I think of the probability of a bad scenario. I said it was like, it is possible. I can't see exactly how we get there.

我们应该尽量理解这种情况，并快速作出反应。作为一个国家，我们可能需要在技术上保持领先。你有没有听说过什么人用这个进行黑客攻击或诈骗的疯狂例子？哦，比如在我的公司里，我们会收到看似是我发来的邮件，但其实并不是我，有时候里面会有一个链接，语气听起来像是我的声音。我认为这是最简单的例子。那么，如果能生成非常逼真的媒体内容会发生什么情况呢？比如，如果你的父母接到一个伪装成你手机号的电话，对方的声音还像是你在说需要什么东西，这就是一种糟糕的情景。所以我认为我们需要更多的工具来防范这种情况，并进行广泛的教育。因此，我对此更加担忧。我认为这种糟糕情景出现的可能性是存在的，只是我无法确切地预见我们如何到达那一步。

And if you ask me, like, what are the reasons in which broad use of cheap intelligence are going to be great, I can give you so many reasons, right? So Andrei Carpoffi just started a company around education. And like the the fields that have been super resistant to cost improvement, basically health care, the government and education, like, I think this will actually move the needle on some of the domains that matter a lot to all of us humans. And I think like when when people talk about like the doom scenario is really fun and scary to talk about the dystopian doom scenario. But I think the opportunity costs of not exploring the ways in which like, you know, you can have an economy of abundance. We need to talk about that. And that is really what I focus on.

如果你问我，广泛使用廉价智能会带来哪些好处，我可以给你列出很多理由。例如，Andrei Carpoffi 刚刚成立了一家与教育相关的公司。像医疗、政府和教育这些领域，一直以来都很难降低成本。我认为这项技术确实可以在这些对我们人类非常重要的领域产生实质性的改变。很多人都喜欢讨论反乌托邦的末日场景，这些讨论确实既有趣又令人害怕。但我认为我们需要关注的是，如果我们不探索如何实现富足经济，所带来的机会成本。这才是我真正关注的重点。

Sam, do you know who Andrei Carpoffi is? No, but I love his name. It's a lovely name. Andrei is a is a amazingly well respected research scientist and educator who's trying to create like an experience that is AI powered in education where like the most amazing expert in a domain is like a personal tutor taking you through the material interactively. And he's one of like the five big thought leader type guy, he ran Tesla's AI program. In terms of self-driving cars, he was like one of the let's say five most known and respected guys about that. He then went to open AI. He then quit open AI. It says he's listed as a co-founder of open AI. So I guess he was a man.

山姆，你知道安德烈·卡尔波菲是谁吗？不知道，但是我喜欢他的名字。这个名字很不错。安德烈是一位非常受尊敬的研究科学家和教育家，他正在尝试创建一个由人工智能驱动的教育体验，在这个体验中，某领域内最出色的专家会像私人导师一样，互动地带你学习这些材料。他是五大思想领袖之一，他曾领导特斯拉的人工智能项目。在自动驾驶汽车领域，他是五位最知名和受尊敬的人物之一。之后他去了OpenAI，但后来辞职了。据说他是OpenAI的联合创始人，所以我猜他确实很重要。

He was like the early, early mind behind it. And Tesla, he was basically the guy leading their entire self-driving unit. I think he's I forgot what his title was, but he's like, you know, chief AI guy. When I lived in San Francisco, it was a fun period. I lived there from 2012 to basically 2020 or 2022. And back then it was like the Airbnb's of the world and Tesla or Uber and we had sidecar back then where it was like, holy crap, we're going to get into a stranger's car. And this is so exciting. This is so new. And you'd go to hackathons and people were working on like meal delivery services. And that was like really cool.

他就像是这个领域的早期顶尖人物。而在特斯拉，他基本上是领导整个自动驾驶部门的人。我记不清他的头衔了，但他就像是首席人工智能专家。当我住在旧金山的时候，那段时间非常有趣。我从2012年一直住到大概2020或2022年。当时旧金山盛行的就是像Airbnb、特斯拉或Uber这样的公司，还有我们当时有个叫Sidecar的服务，可以坐陌生人的车，感觉真是太刺激、太新奇了。你会去参加黑客马拉松，大家都在开发像送餐服务这样的项目，那时候真的非常酷。

I went recently or this was about a year ago. And I was walking around the ferry building. And this kid recognized me. He's like, Oh, Sam, I, you know, I like the pod. I go, Hey, what's up, man? And he said, I'm doing a hackathon right now in the ferry building upstairs, doing your wife want to come up and like see what's going on. And I was like, hell yeah, let's do it. And so we go up there. And it was so invigorating. I was like, dude, we used to do these exact same thing, but it was around like the sharing economy and all this type of stuff. And they were, I was just talking to people what they were building. And I remember thinking like, this is like totally, I guess it happens in San Francisco a bunch. I was like, this is like the Renaissance. Like there's something really, really cool going on. And everyone was doing AI stuff. And I just thought it's magical.

我最近去了趟，可能是大约一年前。我在渡轮大楼附近散步，一个小孩认出了我。他说：“哦，萨姆，我喜欢你的播客。”我回应道：“嘿，你好。”他接着说：“我现在就在渡轮大楼楼上参加一个黑客马拉松，你和你妻子想上来看看吗？”我回答：“当然，为什么不呢？”于是我们上去了。 在那里感觉非常振奋。我想起我们以前也做过完全一样的事情，但当时主要是围绕着共享经济之类的主题。我们在那里跟大家聊天，了解他们在做什么。我记得当时想，这大概是在旧金山很常见的事情。我觉得这就像文艺复兴一样，这里有一些非常酷的事情在发生。每个人都在做与人工智能相关的东西，我觉得太神奇了。

Right when I moved there, it was like mobile was the thing. It was like, Oh, X for mobile. Everything we got to make we got to make it work on an iPhone and an Android. And then you would see like, you know, some like false flags like front back came out. It's like, Oh shit, this is the next thing. This is the next big social app. And then it would kind of die. But then, you know, Instagram snapchat, you know, they actually they stuck. And I remember early days of musically that now become TikTok. And so mobile was like the big thing at the time. Then it became crypto and it became the crypto hub. But it started to lose a little bit of the steam for crypto because crypto was a lot more international. But now it looks like for AI San Francisco, at least as back as the hub.

当我刚搬到那里的时候，手机是最热门的东西。所有人都在说，哦，为了手机做这个做那个。一切东西都得在iPhone和安卓上运行。然后你会看到一些像是虚假的热点，比如“前后”应用出现时，大家都觉得，哦天啊，这是下一个大社交应用。但随后它又销声匿迹了。然而，Instagram和Snapchat却真正坚持了下来。我还记得Musical.ly早期的日子，它后来变成了TikTok。所以当时手机是个大热门。然后潮流变成了加密货币，那里也成了加密货币的中心。但因为加密货币非常国际化，它的热度有些减退。但现在看来，至少对于人工智能来说，旧金山又成了一个枢纽。

So are you in San Francisco? Yeah, we're in the mission in San Francisco. And like, I think we really believe in the sort of like community aspect of not in the like, maybe in the squishy sense, the word to, but like, if you're thinking about looking for ideas for companies and being inspired to like, be committed to the grind and have the right ideas, then the right thing to do is not do it like alone in your basement. What you have in San Francisco are people who are optimistic and then like work oriented, they believe lots of things are possible. They're learning about what's going on at the frontier. And we actually do this grant program in bed, embed.com to create that kind of community and a bunch of other stuff. But it is, it is around this idea that you people want to have the experience that you described, San, which is like, well, like, not all of this is going to work.

所以，你在旧金山吗？对，我们在旧金山的任务区。我认为我们真的相信某种社区的理念，可能不仅仅是强调那种模糊的感觉。如果你在寻找公司创意并且想要激励自己投入奋斗并有正确的想法，那么正确的做法不是一个人独自在地下室里搞。旧金山有充满乐观精神并且工作导向的人，他们相信很多事情是可能的，他们正在了解前沿的发展。我们其实在bed.com上搞了一个资助项目，旨在创建这种社区，还有一堆其他的东西。这一切都是围绕着让人们体验你所描述的那种感觉，这种感觉就是，并不是所有事情都会成功。

But what are smart people trying that is some version of the future in this area of AI? And like that will probably educate and inspire me. And some of it will be really big. Yeah, I think that like, if you're 22, and you're young and single, and you're into the shit, I would just say two words, I would say, go West, go West, young man. By the way, people always talk about San Francisco. It's dangerous. It's dirty. It's lawless. That's the appeal, baby. You can say you, you made it in the war torn city of San Francisco. You don't want to be a billionaire who was coddled. You want to be a billionaire who grew up on the mean streets of San Francisco. You can not that mean.

但是，在这个人工智能领域里，聪明的人们正在尝试什么未来版本的东西？这可能会启发和教育我。而其中一些事情将会非常重要。对，如果你22岁，年轻单身，并且对这些事情很感兴趣，我只有两个字，"向西走，年轻人"。顺便说一句，人们总是谈论旧金山，说那里危险、肮脏、无法无天。这正是吸引力所在，老兄。你可以说自己在动荡的旧金山生存下来了。你不想成为一个被宠坏的亿万富翁，你想成为一个在旧金山这条"硬汉之路"上成长起来的亿万富翁。不过旧金山也没那么糟。

All right, I think we have to wrap up. Tara, thanks for coming on. We're sure people find you and where should they follow you? You can just Google Sarah Guea or conviction.com. And I'm on Twitter. I'm all right. That's it. That's the fun. Thanks guys. On a roll, let's travel never looking back.

好的，我想我们得结束了。塔拉，谢谢你的到来。我们确定大家会找到你的，那么他们应该去哪里关注你呢？你可以直接谷歌搜索Sarah Guea或者conviction.com。我也在推特上。好了，就这样吧。非常感谢大家。保持前进，从不回头看。