Are Inventory Levels Back to “New-Normal”? | Car Dealership Guy Market Update

This is where we are, you know, how are we moving forward? Like what are goals? Is this realistic? Can automakers still maintain profitability? Can dealers still maintain profitability at this level of volume? If you talk about Civic, the Corolla, those vehicles do well. But as a segment, things have definitely gone down. So it's like everything is funneling into the SUV. I mean, even the Ultima looks like it's on the chopping block. So it feels like they're maybe in the middle of larger product renaissance of changing their product line. It is risky. And we're going to see a lot of this moving forward as automakers look to find a dance partner for certain things that they, you know, perhaps are struggling with or unsure about or don't want to go it alone, don't want to do the investment alone.

这是我们现在的状况，你知道，我们该如何前进？比如我们的目标是什么？这现实吗？汽车制造商还能保持盈利吗？经销商在这种销量水平下还能保持盈利吗？如果你谈到思域、卡罗拉，这些车型表现不错。但整体来看，这个细分市场确实下滑了。所以现在好像所有的注意力都集中在SUV上。就连天籁（Altima）好像也在被考虑放弃的边缘。所以感觉他们可能正处于产品线大变革的中间阶段。这是有风险的。随着汽车制造商寻找合作伙伴来解决他们可能面临的问题、不确定性或不愿单独承担投资的事情，我们今后会看到很多这样的情况。

Welcome to the car dealership guy market update, a monthly discussion with automotive industry experts and dealers about where our car market is today and where it may be headed. Today, I'm speaking with Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at Edmonds. But before we get into the show, the car dealership guy market update is brought to you by Edmonds. Welcome back to the fourth episode of the CDG market update presented by Edmonds. I'm here with Jessica Caldwell from Edmonds. Jessica, how are you? I'm doing good. Thanks. How are you? Good. Good to see you. So today it is just me and Jessica. We've got a lot to talk about. Last month was, you know, pretty boring. Only a couple of things happened in our industry, right? We had 50 over 50% of the industry suffered an outage and no big deal. I know, but in all seriousness, it's been, it's been a, there's been a lot. So we'll, we'll dig into a lot of it and really go step by step into where we're at today and where we're going as usual.

欢迎收看车商市场更新，这是一个每月与汽车行业专家和经销商讨论当前汽车市场状况及未来趋势的节目。今天，我将与Edmonds的洞察总监Jessica Caldwell对话。在节目开始之前，我要告诉大家，这期车商市场更新由Edmonds赞助。欢迎收看第四期由Edmonds呈现的CDG市场更新节目。我身边的是Edmonds的Jessica Caldwell。Jessica，你好吗？ 我很好，谢谢。你呢？ 很好，很高兴见到你。今天只有我和Jessica，我们有很多内容要讨论。上个月，嗯，可以说是比较无聊，行业里只发生了几件事，对吧？比如说，超过50%的行业遭遇了停运，没什么大不了的，对吧？不过，讲真，这个月事情确实不少。所以，我们会深入剖析很多内容，按照惯例一步步回顾我们现在的状况以及未来的方向。

I think to kick things off, Jessica, we just finished the second quarter, as I just mentioned. Where does the industry stand? Give us a high level overview. Right. So I think if we look at where Q2 stands, it was pretty flat from where we were in Q2 in 2023, which is interesting because I think all the thought was you get more inventory, you get more incentives, things start to normalize. And one would think that sales would really start to go up and we didn't necessarily see that massive of an impact. I mean, it was up about 8% from the first quarter, but that's seasonal, January and February volumes are terrible. So that's expected. But in terms of like, you know, raise and a lift from maybe last year or second quarter, I think that was more expected.

我认为，为了开始讨论，Jessica，我们刚刚结束了第二季度。正如我刚才提到的，那这个行业目前的状况如何？请给我们一个大致的概述吧。 好的。我认为，如果我们看看第二季度的情况，相比2023年第二季度几乎没有太大变化，这很有趣，因为我们原本以为库存增加、激励措施更多，市场会开始恢复正常，本以为销售量会大幅上升，但情况并非如此。销售量比起第一季度增加了大约8%，但这是季节性的，毕竟一月和二月的销量通常很糟糕，所以这是预料之中的。但至于相比去年或者上一季度的增长，我认为这种预期更为合理。

So, you know, to me, it seems like we're almost finding like our groove back after all of everything that's happened from, you know, obviously inventory shortages, you know, COVID kind of finding like our, new groove. So maybe this level of sales is sort of where we are. I mean, we did have, of course, which you had mentioned, the CDK impact, but that was at the very end of the quarter from a total volume perspective, but it necessarily be as as affected. But I think that that kind of just begs the bigger question of, okay, this is where we are, you know, how are we moving forward? Like, what are goals?

所以，你知道，对我来说，感觉我们好像在经历了所有这些事情之后，重新找回了我们的节奏。你知道，显然库存短缺、新冠疫情，我们好像找回了新的步调。所以也许现在的销售水平就是我们当前的状态。我的意思是，当然，我们确实有你提到的CDK影响，但那只是季度末的总量方面的影响，所以不会有太大影响。但我认为这引出了一个更大的问题，就是好吧，这就是我们的现状，那我们接下来该怎么走？我们的目标是什么？

Is this realistic? Can auto makers still maintain profitability? Can dealers still maintain profitability at this level of volume? So I think that's, you know, sort of the interesting thing at play here is like, have we found a new normal? Well, tell me more about the CDK hack impact on sales. Yeah. I mean, it's hard. Well, it is funny because everything that happened in the auto industry is such a big news, but CDK was such a specific story that it was, you know, it almost felt very inside baseball. But in terms of impact, I mean, it was quite significant, especially for, you know, CDK customers.

这现实吗？汽车制造商还能保持盈利吗？经销商在这个销售量水平上还能盈利吗？所以我觉得，这里有趣的地方在于，我们是否找到了一个新的常态？好吧，告诉我更多关于CDK被黑对销售的影响。是的，我的意思是，这很难解释。不过很有意思，因为一切关于汽车行业的事情都是大新闻，而CDK被黑却是一个非常特定的故事，感觉就像是行业内部的事。但从影响来看，对CDK的客户来说，影响确实非常显著。

It did feel very mixed in terms of who was affected and who was not affected and the levels of effects. And people like, wow, this has been very detrimental. I'm sure you have a lot of good anecdotes on this, whereas, you know, others were not. But from like a sales standpoint, we did see softness in June. June, sorry, was about 15.3 around around that. So a little bit on the lower side of where we have been tracking. So I think that that was an effect.

感觉影响非常不均匀，有些人受到了很大影响，而有些人则没有，影响的程度也不同。很多人说，哇，这真是太糟糕了。我确信你有很多关于这方面的好故事，而另一些人则没有同样的感受。但是，从销售角度来看，我们确实在六月看到了疲软现象。六月的销售额大约在15.3左右，有点低于我们一直追踪的水平。所以我认为这确实是一个影响因素。

But if you look at the quarter from a volume standpoint, probably less, just because it happened at the very end of the quarter, but an impactful portion of the quarter where it was at the end of June and, you know, started to hit month end and also quarter end. You want to make these numbers up? Yeah. And I always like to, I always like to define SARS for any of our new listeners that are joining in, right? We're really talking, you know, seasonally adjusted annual rate, which really is referring to how many cars are we tracking to sell annually for the year.

但是，如果从销量的角度来看这个季度，可能会比较少，因为这是在季度末才发生的。不过，这仍然是一个有影响的时间段，因为它发生在六月底，也就是月末和季度末的时候。你知道的，大家都希望这些数字能更好。而且，我总是喜欢为新听众解释一下SARS（季节性调整后的年率）。我们实际上在讨论的是，我们每年预计要卖出的汽车数量。

So it's pretty, I would say, initially, I was more concerned when the CDK outages started happening, right? It was, you know, like right away, I have reflections of my days, right, in a dealership without when the DMS doesn't work for some reason to, you know, management system. It's just like a disaster, right? Everything's disrupted. I think that the industry very quickly adjusted back to manual processes as, you know, as expected, but I would say that it's clear that with the numbers you just mentioned that the industry was able to really, you know, readjusting capture sales, which is obviously a positive for the car industry.

所以，我想说，一开始，当CDK系统出现故障时，我非常担心。你知道的，那时我立即回想到自己有段时间在汽车经销商工作时，管理系统（DMS）因为某些原因无法正常工作。这简直是灾难，一切都被打乱了。我认为这个行业迅速适应了回到手工流程，这其实是在预料之中的。然而，随着你刚才提到的那些数据，很明显这个行业确实能够迅速调整并重新捕获销售机会，这对汽车行业来说显然是个好消息。

And I think the issue that lots of dealers have mentioned with service is that it's just not as easy to adjust the manual process, right? You can't maybe hold a deal, paper it later, bring the customer back. It's just, it gets a lot murkier. You have warranty, excuse me, you have warranty submissions, right? With the RROs pricing out different jobs. It got very murky. The other issue with service that many people may not have thought of is that. Service is always constrained, right? Everyone is always short on text. No one, everyone is always at max capacity. So when you're losing that business, it's really, it's almost impossible to make it up unless you have people do over time. And again, that has other consequences later down the line.

我认为很多经销商提到的关于服务的问题在于，手动操作的调整并不容易，对吧？你可能没办法暂时搁置交易、之后再打印文件、让客户重新回来。这就使得流程变得非常混乱。你还有保修提交，对吧？与RROs（维修订单）不同的定价工作。这变得非常混乱。 另一个很多人可能没想到的服务问题是，服务总是有局限的，对吧？技术人员总是短缺，大家总是满负荷运转。所以当你失去这部分业务时，几乎不可能弥补，除非让员工加班。而加班又会在后续产生其他问题。

Tough to say, tough to quantify service. You know, of course, we'll see with the public groups, but on the sales perspective, I think your numbers add up to, or, you know, they, they make sense and anecdotally in aligns with kind of the sentiment on the street, which is that, you know, people adjusted processes and were able to capture a mosel. So it's pretty remarkable when you think that everyone lost or fit over 50% of our industry loss.

很难量化这种服务。你知道的，当然，我们会根据公众的反馈来看，但从销售的角度来看，我认为你的数据是合理的。根据街头的反馈，大家调整了流程，取得了一些成绩。这相当了不起，因为要想到我们整个行业有超过50%的损失。

You know, they're, they're, they're pulse, right? They're, they're core software for at least two weeks. I know it's almost like going to work without a computer. Like people used to do that at one point in time and it's like, how did you do anything without, without a computer? So I imagine, you know, very similar that you get used to a certain way of doing things and, you know, pre this, it's even hard to, you know, hard to imagine. I did, yeah, it's interesting. You brought up service. I did hear from someone today that said, I just try to get my car serviced. You know, this, I got to the point where until the point where you can service the time and that's when the system crash. And he's like, wait a second. I thought this was already fixed. And it's like, well, there's going to be lingering effects. It's not necessarily everything's fine and dandy. No, it's been very glitchy. You know, these systems have so many tentacles and they integrate with so many different things, you know, and all these vendors. And so I'm still getting messages daily from dealers across the country just mentioning, hey, like this is still down that, you know, this software that connects is not working. People are still trying to smooth this out, but it seems as though, you know, the big, you know, the, the big disruption is behind us. So that's, that's a positive. Before we dive into brand specific metrics and how the brands have performed and continue to perform and who's doing better or worse, talk to us a little bit about inventory levels, right? Where are we out on inventory levels? We're coming off as we all know the last couple of years, historically low numbers on the new side. Where are we at today? Yeah. I mean, inventory is looking a lot better. I mean, just a little shy, probably around three million units, less than three million total. But to put in perspective, I mean, before COVID, we pretty much ran like three to four million. In terms of inventory in any given month. So being in like the high two million, almost three million ranges is almost getting us there because as we knew before, that was too much inventory. I mean, incentives were just everywhere and even looking at like the raw numbers, you know, it is a lot less than than it was. So it feels like we're kind of in a healthy place. Of course, that's not for every automaker. I mean, I'm sure Toyota wishes they probably had more RAV4 hybrids and what any hybrids for that matter. But, you know, and then on the other hand, you probably have, you know, companies like Jeep and slontus with with too many vehicles. So it's, you know, it's not necessarily a perfect science. But when we do look at inventory levels, I'm not really sure there's a need for them to get, you know, a lot higher given where sales are given the macroeconomic environments of high interest rates. You know, it doesn't feel like they necessarily need to grow. So that's why I feel like we're settling into kind of this era of, you know, perhaps more of a new normal where inventory shouldn't grow to like three and a half four million because we know that was not a healthy place and put a lot of pressure on the whole system.

你知道，他们，他们是我们的命脉，对吧？至少在这两周内，他们是我们的核心软件。我知道，这几乎就像没有电脑上班一样。曾经有人就是这样工作的，但现在想想，怎么能没有电脑做任何事呢？所以可以想象，你已经习惯了一种做事情的方式，而在这种变化前，很难想象没有它该怎么工作。 是的，这很有趣。你提到了服务，我今天听到有人说，“我只是想让我的车做个维修。”结果到了只能用时间来服务的时候，系统崩溃了。他说，“等等，我以为这个问题已经解决了。”但实际上还有一些后遗症，并不是所有事情都已经一帆风顺。系统非常不稳定，你知道，这些系统有很多触角，它们与许多不同的东西集成在一起，与各种供应商合作。所以我每天仍收到来自全国各地经销商的信息，说某些软件还在瘫痪，某些连接还无法正常工作。人们仍然在尝试平息这些问题，但看起来大的中断已经过去了，这是个好消息。 在我们深入探讨品牌特定的指标，品牌的表现如何，以及谁做得更好或者更差之前，先聊一下库存水平吧。我们都知道过去两年新车库存历史低迷，那现在情况如何呢？是的，库存情况看起来好多了，大约不到三百万辆，但为了对比，以前在疫情前，我们每月的库存大概在三到四百万辆。所以现在接近三百万辆的库存几乎达标了，因为我们知道以前的库存太多了，促销活动到处都是。即使看现有数据，现在的库存量已经比那时少得多。所以感觉现在的库存水平更健康。当然，这并不适用于每个汽车制造商。我相信丰田可能希望有更多的RAV4混合动力车，或任何混合动力车，另一边，像Jeep这样的公司可能车子太多了。 所以这一点还不是很完美科学。但在看库存水平时，我并不认为它们需要再高很多，考虑到现有销售水平和高利率的宏观经济环境，库存没有必要再增长。所以我觉得我们正在适应一种新的常态，其中库存不应该增长到三百五、四百万辆，因为我们知道那时并不是健康的水平，会给整个系统带来很大压力。

So, yeah, it's definitely looking like what do you mean by that, Jessica? Like when you say, so what do you say that was in a healthy place, right? If I'm a dealer listening to this, I'm probably nodding. If I'm a consumer, I'm probably saying, Hey, like I want more inventory. I want an healthy place. Yeah. Yeah. I want done healthy. So like, what do you and I want to also like parlay this to incentives, which will I have some data there, which we're talking about in a second.

所以，是的，这看起来确实像是“杰西卡，你的意思是什么？”就像当你说某某在一个健康的状态时，具体指什么呢？如果我是个经销商在听这个，我可能会点头。如果我是个消费者，我可能会说，嘿，我想要更多库存，我要一个健康的状态。是的，是的，我想要健康的状态。所以，你的意思是什么？我还想把这个话题转到激励措施上，我这里有一些数据，我们稍后会讨论这个。

But what do you, when you say it, not a healthy place, do you think that do you think it's feasible for inventory to stay at this level? I mean, we are operating in a free market, right? And all these brands are competing. Like how realistic do you think that is? I mean, I think it's a fairly realistic as long as, you know, we're listening to, we'll have some Q2 earnings calls come up from all these automakers to see what their margins or profitability looks like.

但是你说这个地方不健康，是指什么？你觉得库存维持在这个水平是可行的吗？我的意思是，我们是在自由市场中运作，对吧？而且所有这些品牌都在竞争。你觉得这有多现实呢？我的意思是，听听这些汽车制造商在第二季度的财报电话会议中说些什么，看看他们的利润或盈利情况，我觉得这还是比较现实的。

Cause if that's good, then there really isn't necessarily a big need to turn things back up. I mean, of course, everyone wants more market share, but it is really doing that cost benefit analysis of like, what does that exactly? You know, seriously, do it does cost you to gain that share. And are there people there, even if you decided to turn the incentives on, are people going to buy the vehicles that you want? Because, you know, nobody really wants to go back to, you know, an era where days to turn for a certain vehicle is over a hundred. I mean, that does happen, but, you know, not necessarily as widespread as it once was, because nobody wants sales to be that slow and have to just give these cars away.

因为如果那样是好的，那么就没有必要大幅度提高产量。我的意思是，当然每个人都想要更多的市场份额，但实际上要进行成本效益分析，看这样做到底值不值得。你知道的，获得市场份额确实会花费不少成本。即使你决定增加激励措施，人们会购买你想要他们买的车辆吗？毕竟，没有人真的想回到某个车型的周转天数超过一百天的时代。虽然这种情况确实会发生，但不一定像以前那么普遍，因为没有人希望销售如此缓慢，以至于不得不几乎白送这些车。

I mean, you know, I just still think about the time post recession where you saw deals like buy one. It was like buy one Dodge Ram and get like a Dodge Neon for free. I mean, it was under the Dodge brand back then. But those type of crazy incentives that you don't even fathom nowadays, but they did exist. And that's what happens when inventory disc is out of control and you have to produce your force to produce all these vehicles that you don't necessarily, you know, that you can't necessarily sell.

我的意思是，你知道，我还在想着经济衰退后的那段时间。当时有一些疯狂的促销活动，比如买一辆Dodge Ram卡车，就送一辆Dodge Neon小汽车。那时候Dodge品牌确实有这样的活动。如今我们根本无法想象这样的促销，但它们确实存在过。这就是库存失控的情况，当你被迫生产很多车辆但又不一定能卖出去时，就会出现这种情况。

Speaking of inventory, two things I want to add there. Right. Number one, I've read a stat the other day that incentives as a percentage of vehicle price. I'm trying to think I think this was from Cox on a motor, but incentives as a percentage of as a vehicle price are have sort of leveled off. Which I found very interesting because in this increasing inventory environment. There seems to be that incentives have slowed, at least the growth has slowed. And I wonder, right, like, is that sustainable? Right. We can't have it all. We can't have slowing incentives increasing inventory and maintaining margins.

说到库存，有两点我想补充。第一，我前几天读到一项统计数据，关于激励措施占车辆价格的比例。我记得这可能来自Cox汽车公司。数据显示，激励措施占车辆价格的比例已经趋于平稳。我觉得这很有意思，因为在库存增加的环境中，激励措施似乎已经放缓，至少增长速度放缓了。我在想，这种情况能持续吗？我们无法既减少激励措施、又增加库存，同时还保持利润率。

So that's the first question that goes to my head, right? Like what happens next? Will incentives continue rising from here? Right. Price has remained pretty flat. If you look at overall, you know, average vehicle price, it's still around like 48,000. That's been pretty consistent. So something has to give. The question is, are we going to see inventory level off like you're saying, or will incentives take another run and continue increasing from here? Well, I think we're seeing them level up and probably not be such a big percentage of sales. It's just because you see a mismatch in demand.

所以，这是第一个出现在我脑海中的问题，对吧？接下来会发生什么？激励措施会继续增加吗？是这样的。价格一直相对平稳。如果你看整体的平均车辆价格，仍然在大约4.8万美元左右，这一直相当稳定。所以某些方面必须发生变化。问题是，我们会像你说的那样，看到库存水平稳定下来，还是激励措施会进一步增加？我认为我们看到的是，他们在稳定，而且可能不会占销售额的很大比例。这只是因为你看到需求不匹配。

I mean, I think there are some vehicles where there probably is growing, some vehicles that are selling, like I mentioned, a lot of people that are looking at a lot of vehicles, like a lot of vehicles that are going to be higher. And I think that's the case of what we're seeing right now. I spoke with, and I wanted, before we transitioned to brand specific performance, which I want to talk about, how brands are actually performing numbers, I spoke with, I think, a lot of people are looking at the price. And I think that's a lot of people who are looking at the price. I think that's a lot of people who are looking at the price. I hope if somebody is looking at them, you're even going, like taking a ceremony here, I'm going to look at some finance. And I need details a little bit that I sort of don't active weight. MPH, there's a level of the net.

我觉得目前有些车型的市场需求在增长，有些车型的销量在增加。正如我提到的，很多人在关注各种车型，包括一些价格较高的车型。我认为这种情况眼下很普遍。在我们深入探讨具体品牌的表现和数值之前，我与一些人进行了交流，他们也在关注价格问题。我希望如果有人在考虑购买车辆，他们可能会仔细查看财务状况。对我来说，有些细节方面并不是我特别关注的。市场需求确实存在。

We don't have on a new car lot that we're buying in our country inventory to driver use car offering So, you know, we've been talking about this lack of supply It's you know, this is like, you know from the horse's mouth, right? This is real. This is there's fewer cars being returned from leases as we spoke about in previous episodes and a more of a reliance on these three to four cars to to compensate for that and So that is it's going to be also interesting to see how that impacts prices and you know again It's always there's always the you know the long tail effect, right? Ultimately more demand for those three to four cars more margin compression on the used car side and the cycle continues Yeah, I mean just for

我们在国内购买的新车库存并没有很多，供司机使用的二手车也很有限。所以，你知道，我们一直在讨论这种供应不足的问题。这就是我们说的“从马嘴里听到”的真相，情况是真的。就像我们在之前的节目中提到的，越来越少的车辆从租赁中退回，因此人们更多地依赖这三到四辆车来弥补这种不足。那么，看看这将如何影响价格也将是一件有趣的事情。你知道，这种情况总是有长期影响。最终，对这三到四辆车的需求增加，二手车方面的利润空间会进一步压缩，周而复始。这就是情况。

someone like Toyota man the question is like well consumers just wait because they are brand loyal and You know if you want some of these vehicles, I don't know if there's necessarily perfect substitutes for them so You may have you know a line over at the Toyota dealership and a dirt of customers over at the Nissan dealership And that I think is the imbalance that we are You know that we are seeing but yeah, that is the that is the reality I mean we are seeing probably least returns. We knew we're gonna be an issue I think we talked about this a few years ago because we can see how few vehicles would be at least then what those volumes are and That's natural is like to have a used vehicle. You have to have a new vehicle first and we know exactly how many vehicles Were you know potentially gonna be you know returned at this point? I knew that it was just a declining number which is gonna put a brand like you know Toyota which you know once did a very healthy least business in a bit of a tough

像丰田这样的公司面临的问题是，消费者会因为品牌忠诚而愿意等待吗？你知道，如果你想要某些特定车型，我不确定是否有完美的替代品。所以可能会出现丰田经销商那边排起长队，而日产经销商那边却门可罗雀的情况。我认为这正是我们所看到的不平衡现象。确实，现实就是这样。我们可能看到的回报最少。我们几年前就知道这会成为一个问题，因为我们可以看到当时有多少车辆被租赁，这些数据的波动是显而易见的。而且要有二手车，首先需要有新车。我们确切知道有多少车辆可能在这个时间点会被退回。我知道这个数字在不断下降，这使得像丰田这样曾经在租赁业务上非常健康的品牌陷入了一点困难。

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Yeah, look I think mark I think more margin compression on the use car side doesn't surprise me I have frequent conversations about that with use card with use card dealers or new card dealers with big use departments I think the other thing that I think through is I Feel like you know that the the wholesaling market will continue getting more efficient and what I mean by that is Dealers are buying cars at record volumes, you know off the street quote-unquote from consumers but I think that you know the pressure is on for wholesalers may be auctions or you know B2B marketplaces to get more efficient and and Continue strengthening their value proposition Right because I it's not just of course supplies a big driver of it but you know price obviously matters especially in in a you know an environment with declining margins So I just see that I'm speaking sort of out loud here as I see what's trending in their industry But that's an area that I'm really kind of you know focusing on and trying to see how that's going to continue evolving

是的，Mark，我认为二手车市场的利润压缩并不让我惊讶。我经常与二手车经销商或有大型二手部门的新车经销商讨论这个问题。我还认为批发市场会变得更加高效，这是因为经销商从消费者手中购车的数量已经创下了纪录。因此，批发商，比如拍卖行或B2B市场，需要在提高效率和加强自身价值定位上面临更大的压力。 当然，供应是其中一个重要因素，但在利润下降的环境中，价格显然也非常重要。所以，这就是我看到行业趋势时的一些想法，这是我目前正在关注并尝试理解其如何继续演变的一个领域。

Yeah, I mean it makes sense Are you hearing just a lot of trepidation amongst dealers about like what to buy and how much to buy it for just because we've seen Such an up and down in terms of some of the used market over the past few years because I felt like that was very much a symptom At one point Well, I think first of all when it comes to the used EVs Lots of use card dealers are still taking advantage of the tax credit there. So that is absolutely having an impact Used EV prices have come down a lot they've sort of stabilized and Again, it's not surprising given that demand is increasing, you know with consumers. That's sort of that's a new That's something new that was started this year with the with the EV tax credit. I would say to answer your question directly I Don't know if trepidation I would there's definitely you know people are dealing with just margin compression and you know They're facing ahead on and remember to do that in an environment where interest rates are still Relatively high right we haven't seen these levels in about two decades So all that said the environment is challenging. We'll talk just in a second about performance on the new side But even on the use side I do this tweet where I say hey dealers tell me how you're doing the market and you know Lots of dealers comment on it on X and they say he kind of dissed on my sales and you know well then many times you know have phone calls or the messages and We'll just talk about you know kind of their specific market performance and it's just been very spotty like different regions of the country are You know operating or dirt really different volumes and they're doing some are doing better than others But overall it seems like you know that the conversation I have a bit more often is about margin Mmm as a rhyme or reason to some of the region the regionality because I think that's pretty interesting to it It kind of goes along with even some of the brands being a bit seemed spotty demand in different places I don't know if you heard that and I don't know I don't think I have any like good consistent trend that I've noticed, but I'm curious to know What do you think in terms of performance of the brands right and specifically standouts right like any brands performing great? Not great where we at

当然，这很合理。你有没有听说过很多经销商对于购买什么以及应该花多少钱购买感到不安呢？因为过去几年二手市场的起伏不定，我觉得这曾经是一个很明显的症状。 首先，关于二手电动车，很多二手车经销商仍在利用税收抵免，这无疑对市场产生了影响。二手电动车的价格已经大幅下降并趋于稳定。这并不奇怪，因为消费者的需求在增加。今年刚开始的电动车税收抵免也是其中一个新因素。 直接回答你的问题，不知道“担忧”是否合适，可以肯定的是，大家正在应对利润压缩。记住，在利率仍然相对较高的环境下，这样做是有挑战的。我们已经有大约二十年没有见过这样的利率水平了。所以总的来说，环境是具有挑战性的。 我们稍后会讨论一下新车的表现，但即使在二手车市场，我在推特上发帖子问经销商他们市场的情况，很多经销商在X平台上评论说我的销售业绩受到打击。很多时候，我们会有电话或信息交流，讨论他们具体市场的表现。整体上，情况非常不一致，不同地区的销量和表现差异很大，有些地区比其他地区要好。但总的来说，我更常听到的是关于利润的问题。 关于区域性的原因或规律，我觉得这也很有趣。这也和一些品牌在不同地区的需求波动有关。我不确定有没有注意到一个一致的趋势，不过我很想知道你的看法，品牌的表现怎么样？具体来说，有哪些品牌表现突出，哪些表现不佳？总的来说情况如何？

Yeah, I mean it was kind of the usual suspects I think of what you would expect when those sales reports came out I think it was just you know right after the month had started you still have brands like Nissan Solantis Definitely struggling there showing you know quarter over quarter or year over year rather declines versus Honda Toyota You know done very strong. I would say so It is a bit of a mixed bag the majority of brands You know I think they saw a pretty decent lift over over last quarter and I think that was to be expected and year over year I'd say a lot of them were in the same place But a lot of the the trends that we have seen have continued You know we have seen some of the Japanese brands do do quite well and with the exception of Nissan Which some news just came out about some of their product lineup shakeups Which I which I think is quite interesting of what their rumored to discontinue get rid of a lot of their sedans I mean even the ultimate looks like it's on the chopping block. So it feels like there may be in the middle of a Larger product renaissance of changing their product line and it but it is affecting them right now here on the ground Why do you think that is like that's that's a statement that I would have been first of all I'm semi-shocked to hear now But even a couple years back to hear like you know even the ultimate might be on the chopping block or it like Why do you think that is you know the news out there right now is that they will discontinue the Versa in 2025 And then the ultimate likely in 2026 or after that

是啊，我的意思是，当这些销售报告出来时，那些表现情况其实是我们料想到的常见品牌。报告在月初发布，你可以看到一些品牌仍然在挣扎，比如日产、斯泰兰蒂斯，它们显示出季度或年度的下降。而像本田、丰田这些品牌则表现得很强劲。所以结果有点混合，大多数品牌在上个季度表现出相当不错的提升，这也是预期中的，年度同比很多品牌的处境基本差不多。 我们观察到一些趋势持续存在，比如一些日系品牌表现得相当不错，除了日产。关于日产最近有一些新闻，它们的产品线发生了一些变化，据传会停产很多轿车车型，甚至连Altima（天籁）也可能被砍掉。所以感觉它们正在进行一场更大规模的产品改造，这正在影响它们的现况。 你觉得为什么会这样？我听到这个消息时有点惊讶，即使几年前要是听到像天籁这样车款可能被砍掉也会很震惊。现在的新闻是它们将会在2025年停产Versa，天籁可能会在2026年或之后停产。

So that would ultimately leave them with a centro is kind of their their only car and They've already you know they've already cut maxima. So for a brand was such a strong I would say car presence for many years. It feels like Centro was like one of a lot of people's like first car experience and then ultimate and then size sedan I mean that was that was a pretty hot car there for quite a while I mean it's been it's been probably over a decade, but when that was redesigned You know maybe like in the early 2000s that definitely got people to turn their heads and got them to consider the Nissan brand Which is is so important But it does feel like it's kind of following the industry of Shuttering a lot of these these car lines and you know I think you know Nissan's been you know kind of bullish in some of their statements as it relates to EVs So it feels like they're changing some of their products now internal combustion into products and you know Leaning heavily to more towards the change for their electric vehicles They've talked about you know some some SUVs joining on the eV side and then following that some some sedan So it feels like maybe these nameplates will come back But perhaps not as internal combustion engine vehicles maybe as EVs Yeah, I mean look I think it's clear that it seems like every year We're just losing more sedans and you know, it's not a it's not a shocker if you just go outside Look at the street right you see more and more SUVs But it's definitely clear that I mean it's if you you know hitting the altima or potentially and you know like The scent the central these type of vehicles These are like the bread and butter vehicles and so it's clear that Dart their industry has you know completely fundamental when fundamentally shifted and Automate it was taking our take it on consideration for all their future models

这最终会让他们只剩下Sentra作为唯一的车型。其实他们已经砍掉了Maxima。对于一个多年来有着强大汽车品牌存在感的品牌来说，这种情况有些令人唏嘘。Sentra曾是许多人第一次购车的选择，然后是Altima，这款中型轿车曾经也非常热门，大概在十几年前重新设计时吸引了很多人的眼球，让大家重新考虑尼桑这个品牌。这一点非常重要。 然而，现在似乎尼桑也在跟随整个行业的趋势，逐步停产许多车型。同时，尼桑在电动车方面一直表现得相当积极，已经开始将一些内燃机产品转变为电动产品，重点向电动车转移。尼桑还提到过推出一些电动SUV，之后还会有电动轿车。所以，这些车名可能会以电动车的形式回来，但不会再是内燃机车型。 每年我们都在失去更多的轿车，这一点很明显。走到街上看看，越来越多的SUV开始主导市场。很明显，当涉及到像Altima或Sentra这样的车时，这些都是尼桑的主力车型。但现在整个行业已经发生了根本性转变，尼桑也在为其未来的所有车型做出调整和改变。

I want to go back to a point you made you were talking over talking about the brands and performance in the market I want to close the loop on another conversation. We had on a prior episode which was we spoke about brand loyalty and You shared some stats with me, right? You put out a bunch of stats about market share and I think I found it fascinating to see that Toyota's market share was up 12% year over year in Q2 from 2023 and I'll tell you why I find that fascinating because I Like we all know Toyota has brand loyalty and I will also mention brand loyalty has eroded a ton over the last couple of years But that is a I mean that's a massive percentage That's by far the largest percentage gain out of any brand in Q2 year over year by far I think behind them is is Volkswagen Audi that gained 7.2% gain in market share so almost double and It's pretty fascinating because we knew that Toyota's lack of inventory was pushing buyers to explore new brands But if this if this tells us anything It's that the Toyota buyer is very loyal like you said and maybe this is not the buyer that purchased a competing Subaru or Hyundai Or kid the last couple of years

我想回到你之前提到的一个点，你在讨论市场上的品牌和表现。我想再谈谈我们在之前一期节目中讨论过的话题，那就是品牌忠诚度。你和我分享了一些数据，对吧？你提出了许多关于市场份额的统计数据，我觉得很有趣的一个点是，2023年第二季度丰田的市场份额同比上涨了12%。我之所以觉得这很有趣，是因为我们都知道丰田有很高的品牌忠诚度，但多年来品牌忠诚度有所下降。然而，这12%的增长是一个巨大的比例，远远超过其他品牌在第二季度的同比增长。仅次于丰田的是大众奥迪，其市场份额增长了7.2%，差不多是丰田的一半。这非常令人惊讶，因为我们知道丰田的库存不足曾促使买家去探索其他品牌，但如果这说明了什么，那就是丰田的买家非常忠诚。正如你说的，这些买家可能并没有在过去几年里购买竞争对手的斯巴鲁、现代或起亚。

But needless to say it shows that as they continue rebounding inventory The brand is just very very resilient and is able to bring that customer back and grow at a pace like this And you even mentioned that they're still lacking hybrids and so it's it's tough to not be Just bullish on the brand and imagine that if they had fully if they were fully stocked with hybrids right now that their market share Will be rising even faster Right. I mean, I don't know if he's on their sales records for June pre assault 13 I think it was 13 units and we know Demand for that vehicle is way higher obviously than that It's probably one of the hottest vehicles in the country So the fact that they couldn't sell those you know I cuz I when I saw this some of the June top line numbers for two I thought wait a second this doesn't seem in trend and then when you actually like look at how some of their vehicle results It's like well if you can only sell a few units. How do you reconcile that? Yeah, how do you reconcile like such such such a great performance and the pre-estirteen units? Yeah, I mean they're gonna either have a monster July in August as soon as they can start selling these vehicles again Because I do think Prius is one of those vehicles that people will wait for you know if you want a hybrid that is You know, I can't believe I'm saying this describe Prius, but kind of cool design There's not a lot of options out there, especially that are more affordable

不过不用说，这表明他们在持续回升库存的过程中，品牌展现出了极强的韧性，能够吸引顾客回头并以这样的速度增长。你甚至提到他们现在还缺少混合动力车型，这让人很难不对这个品牌持乐观态度。可以想象，如果他们现在全线供应混合动力车型，市场份额将会增长得更快。 对，我不知道他是否提到了6月的销售记录，预售13辆车，我认为是13辆，而我们知道对这种车型的需求显然远高于此。它可能是全国最热门的车型之一。所以他们没能卖出这些车，当我看到6月的一些指标数据时，我想等等，这看起来不太符合趋势。然后你仔细看看他们的一些车型的结果，会觉得，如果只能卖出几辆车，该如何解释这种表现呢？ 是的，该如何解释如此出色的表现和预售的这13辆车呢？我觉得他们在7月和8月的表现会非常出色，只要他们能重新开始销售这些车辆。我真的认为普锐斯是那种人们愿意等待的车型。如果你想要一款混合动力车，我难以相信自己会这样形容普锐斯，但它确实有点酷的设计，而且特别是那些价格更实惠的选择不多。

So yeah, and then on the flip side you look at Ra for sales. They were over 40,000 I mean the Ra for almost looks like you know, one of the Detroit brand pickup trucks that yeah, that's that's a good analogy All right, so let's go to the not so good, right? I had Aaron Ziegler on the podcast recently if you're listening to this and you haven't listened to that episode You have to go listen to the episode because it was very very good But we discussed stellantis also known as you know Christ for dodgy pram fiat and others and again another sort of eye-popping stat here that you shared which is down from 10.6 percent vehicle market share in the US down to 8.4 percent year over year. That's a 20% 20.9 percent decline year over year anything new that we should know about stellantis, right? We've spoken we've been pretty vocal about their struggles with pricing with you know vehicle selection Anything new going on there?

好吧，另一方面你看看兰福尔的销售情况。他们的销量超过了四万，意思是说，兰福尔几乎看起来就像某个底特律品牌的皮卡，是的，这个类比很贴切。好了，我们来说说不那么好的情况吧。我最近在播客上采访了亚伦·齐格勒，如果你正在听这个节目但还没听那期，你一定要去听，因为真的非常好。我们讨论了斯坦兰蒂斯（即以前的克莱斯勒，道奇，普利茅斯，菲亚特等）。你分享了另一个令人瞠目结舌的数据，斯坦兰蒂斯在美国的市场份额从去年的10.6%降到了8.4%。这是年同比下降了20.9%。关于斯坦兰蒂斯有什么新情况吗？我们一直在讨论他们在定价和车型选择上的困境，现在有什么新的进展吗？

I mean I wouldn't say new but I mean the one thing that is concerning more on the business end is that they've had They've had quite a few top executives leave And it seems like you know when I look at the news for them There's another executive that's gone. It's like I'm seeing more about that than the actual product which is concerning So don't know what's happening over there But obviously when you see this number of high-level executives leave a company You know enough they're in a transition or what's happening, but that's not probably great news Especially in the short term just having that sort of revolving door of top management Yeah, no, I highlighted that's a great point I highlighted a couple of those departures at least three big departures and the most recent one was Someone in their software tech department. I forget the exact role now the reason that's very meaningful is because You know engineers Typically at least from my experience are like pretty loyal to their leader not not to say that other, you know You know different departments aren't but you know like manufacturing and stuff like that. It's a bit different I would suspect engine, you know software engineers. It's a it's it's it's a different or Just that certain loyalty to your leader and you know kind of buying into the product vision To see that many leaders especially like a software leader or tech leader leave It's it's pretty concerning.

我的意思是，我不会说这是新的情况，但让我担心的是，在商业层面上，他们已经有不少高层管理人员离职了。看新闻时，几乎总看到另一个高管离职的消息。与其说这是关于产品的新闻，不如说这是高管离职的新闻，这就让人担心了。我不知道他们公司内部究竟发生了什么，但显然，当这么多高级管理人员陆续离职时，无论公司是处于过渡期还是发生了其他问题，这都不是一个好的信号。特别是短期内，高层人员的频繁更替显然不是什么好消息。 是的，我强调了这个问题的重要性，我列举了其中的几次离职，至少有三位关键高管已经离职，最近的一位是软件技术部门的某个领导者。我忘记了具体的职位，但这非常重要，因为根据我的经验，工程师通常对他们的领导者非常忠诚。并不是说其他部门就没有忠诚度，但是制造业之类的部门情况会有所不同。我猜测，软件工程师对他们的领导者以及产品愿景有特殊的忠诚。看到这么多领导者，特别是软件或技术领导离职，确实令人担忧。

You know I feel for the for the stylist dealers It's not a great position to be in but if you look at on the optimistic side You know deals have gotten a lot better for consumers, right? So that's a good thing for consumers and it on the dealer side. You could make the case that you know maybe The company hasn't hit like the bottom yet, but it could be a buying opportunity soon, right? Ford went through a similar thing over the last two years Where it was you know, I dealers on my podcast were saying I will not touch a four-deal ship. I would not buy one I would not acquire one at any cost Valuations fell and then since then it seems like the brand has rebounded and so you know these things go in cycles I think there's a potential opportunity there For Stellantis and for dealers to take a look especially because you are seeing some more Stellantis dealerships Pop on the market or at least you know owners being open to selling again. That's my anecdotal observation Again from from conversations, but nonetheless I think that you know if you're ever looking for a time to get into that business You know we may be approaching a bottom and no one can time the market It just you know, I think of it like opportunistically, right if someone is not doing well, right? Is that an opportunity? Right

你知道的，我很同情那些斯泰兰蒂斯汽车的经销商。现在的处境确实不太好，但如果你从乐观的角度看，消费者的交易条件确实变好了，对消费者来说这是一件好事。从经销商的角度来看，你可以认为公司可能还没有触底，但这可能是即将到来的一个购入机会。过去两年，福特也经历过类似的情况。当时，有些经销商在我的播客中说，他们完全不愿意碰福特的经销店，更不要说购买或者以任何价格收购它。当时福特的估值下降了，但从那以后品牌似乎已经复苏了。这些情况都是循环往复的。我认为斯泰兰蒂斯和经销商可能会在这方面看到一些机会，特别是因为你可以看到更多的斯泰兰蒂斯经销店出现在市场上，或者至少是所有者愿意出售。这是我通过交谈得出的感性观察。不过，总的来说，如果你在考虑进入这一行业的好时机，可能我们正在接近一个最低点。没人能准确预测市场，但我觉得可以从机遇的角度看这个问题。如果有人做得不太好，那这会是一个机会吗？

and that I mean that companies had nine lives. I don't even I mean I can't even name all the owners that they've had since bankruptcy So, you know are they because I feel like they've always been like are they really gonna survive and they've managed to do it every time So yeah, I do think that even though things look not great at this point in time The likelihood of bouncing back is probably pretty high for them They're a good example and what we just discussed about right the shift to SUVs right jeep Chrysler Dodge I mean, you know, it's it's really these are SUV brands So talk to me a little bit about just how we've been trending from market share by segment Right we you just mentioned the Nissan stuff Stellantis over here is is not is not doing too hot But they're very SUV heavy. So where are we out with market share by segment? How is that evolving? Yeah, I mean, it's almost a product story really because if you have all these car brands shutter I mean where people being naturally funneled into a lot of times they're funneled into you know smaller SUVs So yeah, I mean you look at way things like subcompact cars have trended over the years like pre-COVID versus now There's hardly any on the market.

公司就像有九条命。我甚至不能一一列举出它们自从破产以来换过的所有老板。所以，虽然每次看起来公司都可能撑不下去了，但他们总能挺过来。因此，我相信即使现在情况看起来不太好，他们恢复的可能性还是很高的。他们是个很好的例子，正如我们刚讨论的市场向SUV的转变，例如Jeep、Chrysler、Dodge，这些都是SUV品牌。那我们来聊聊市场份额的趋势吧。你刚提到日产的情况，而Stellantis这边表现得不怎么样，但他们主打SUV。那么，从市场份额来看，各个细分市场目前的状况如何？这些市场份额在如何演变？实际上，这几乎是一个产品故事。如果所有的轿车品牌都关闭了，市场自然会引导人们去购买其他类型的车，很多时候是小型SUV。看看多年来小型车的趋势吧，从COVID之前到现在，市场上几乎已经没有什么小型车了。

So it's like I want to say it's like less than 1% versus it was you know much more lively Quite a number of years ago and you know the same thing with compact cars I mean a lot of people talk about they're doing well and they are doing well in the short term because the ones that are left do quite well You know if you talk about Civic the Corolla Those vehicles do well, but as a segment things have definitely gone down. So it's like everything is funneling into the SUV Segment I'd say more strongly probably on the smaller side will continue to see compact smaller SUVs grow they have grown They're a big you know big portion of the market. There may be some affordable Fortability issues not for the larger SUVs even maybe starting at midsize because hoes have gotten very expensive You think about just some of the normal nameplates that a lot of consumers deem affordable feel like they're not very affordable nowadays So probably some issues there

所以，我想说，现在小于1%的市场份额，而许多年以前，这个市场要活跃得多。你知道，对于紧凑型汽车来说也是同样的情况。虽然很多人说这些车现在表现不错，而且它们在短期内确实表现不错，因为市场上剩下的那些车型做得相当好。比如你谈到思域(Civic)或者卡罗拉(Corolla)，这些车的表现很好，但作为一个整体而言，这个细分市场确实在下降。所以，现在一切都在汇聚到SUV细分市场上。我认为，尤其是小型SUV这一块，将来会继续增长。它们已经占据了市场的很大份额。可能会有一些可负担性的问题，尤其是对于更大的SUV，甚至是中型SUV，因为这些车型变得非常昂贵。你想想，很多消费者以前认为是负担得起的那些常见车型，现在感觉都不那么负担得起了。所以，可能在这里会有一些问题。

And then I think trucks are are interesting as well because when interest rates went to 0% for 84 months Like everyone bought their big truck because it was like the moment they had been waiting for me sure we were in COVID but Whatever, you know that logic was pushed to the side When we just saw the truck market share really spike and now Things have reversed we're seeing it definitely go down from from where it was. I mean, I still say it's probably in a higher place And we saw you know pre-COVID But from where we just saw it recently It definitely has started to to to taper off a bit So a lot of movement I'd say with the segments But it does feel like all the products that consumers are buying is being kind of in an SUV type of vehicle So that naturally is going to be increasing over time All right, speaking of consumers, right this all impacts the consumer down the day and how dealers conduct their business Comscore put out a stat that pre-qualifications by bank lenders More than doubled year over year. They went from 25% to 53% of consumers I think everyone here listening that is either shot for a car or selling a car or as a dealer or as a GM or Sales manager or whatever Right, we all know that you know affordability has been top of mind for everyone and that's frankly the biggest challenge at the dealership It's all lumped together affordability negative equity. It's all kind of one big thing and we'll we'll talk about each one Pretty big jump in pre-qualifications, which again is emblematic of the broader trend in industry Can you use an overview of the health of the consumer today? Where we at from payment perspective interest rates just give us like a high level overview of how things are shaken out I mean the consumer stretch right now and I imagine people listening to this podcast I probably see those this person kind of come in every day to the dealership is that you know financially It's very tough because it's not only have you know cars gone up in price everything around us has gone up in price So trying to make those trade-offs of okay. I need to buy a new car now. What am I not going to spend money on At this point in time to to be able to purchase that I mean we have high interest rates the new apr's Averages still over 7% we've seen that for a number of months. It has not dipped It feels like kind of the Fed is like is is that for newer used when you say that's the average Over-summer said yeah, so if you look at new vehicles, what are the average interest rates on the loans in the country? There's still over 7% definitely, you know still quite high and when you add that on to 50 $60,000 vehicle You know you get these record high monthly payments over $700 which You know as an average feels you know extremely high I feel like I have these conversations with people in different parts of the country Maybe cost of levines a little bit less and they're like that's how much I pay for my rent or my mortgage or whatever it is It feels like Those are the payments they're turning into so we do know that that you know that the The customer is very much financially stretched but not just in the auto space in every space And I think that's what's really challenging right now

然后我认为卡车也很有趣，因为当利率在84个月内降到0%时，几乎所有人都买了他们梦想已久的大卡车。尽管那时候我们处在新冠疫情时期，但这种想法仍然主导了市场。我们看到卡车的市场份额大幅飙升，但现在情况反过来了，市场份额明显下降了。我认为卡车的市场份额仍然比疫情前高，但相较于最近的高峰，确实开始有所回落。各个细分市场都有不少变化，不过感觉消费者现在买的主要是SUV类型的车辆，所以这类产品的市场份额自然会逐渐增加。 好，说到消费者，这些变化最终都会影响到他们以及经销商的业务。Comscore发布了一项数据，银行贷款预审批的比例年同比增长了一倍多，从25%增加到53%。无论你是买车、卖车、经销商还是总经理、销售经理等，我们都知道“负担能力”是大家最关心的问题，这也是经销商面临的最大挑战。负担能力和负资产等问题都混在一起，我们会详细讨论每一个问题。预审批比例的大幅增长反映了整个行业的广泛趋势。 现在可以谈谈消费者的健康状况。从付款角度和利率角度看，目前情况如何？对消费者来说，现在确实是很难的时刻。我想那些每天去经销商处的人可能会有所感受，不仅仅是车价上涨，周围的一切都在涨价。所以，消费者不得不做出选择，比如现在需要买新车，那么在其他方面要减少开支。目前利率高企，新车贷款利率平均仍在7%以上，已经持续好几个月没有下降。无论是新车还是二手车，借贷利率都很高，这对于50,000到60,000美元的车价来说，意味着每月要还款超过700美元，这绝对是个很高的数字。 在不同地区我与人聊这个话题时，有些地方的生活成本较低，他们会惊讶道“这都快赶上我的房租或房贷了”，这显示了月供的负担之重。所以，我们知道消费者在经济上确实非常吃紧，不仅是在汽车方面，在生活的各个方面都是如此。目前的经济环境确实很具挑战性。

Okay, so new is over 7 where is where are used a PR is that currently? Yeah used a PR is even higher. I mean they're over 11% so You know if you're a used buyer out there I mean I think that things like certified pre-owned certainly help especially if there are some sort of subsidized industry programs But yeah, I mean used a PR's are are you know extremely high? So I mean those those shoppers that are Doing the research to figure out like what does my loan look like not only to shopping your vehicle But shopping your loan as well are probably the ones that are going to be the happiest because it's it's there's so many moving pieces And it's something that I think consumers didn't even really think about I think they just kind of Turned up to the dealership. They kind of knew a car they wanted to buy and then they kind of settled all that in the f&i office And now that's probably why you're seeing these prequalls go up because the loan portion is becoming such a big part of this process Can I even afford this because of the higher interest rates and the higher prices?

好的，所以现在新车的年利率（APR）超过了7%，二手车的年利率则更高，已经超过了11%。如果你是二手车的买家，我觉得认证二手车（Certified Pre-Owned）确实能帮助你，尤其是那些有补贴的行业计划。不过，二手车的年利率确实非常高。所以，那些做足功课、不仅在挑选车辆同时也在比较贷款的买家，可能会是最满意的。因为这其中有很多变动因素，而且我认为消费者之前并没有太在意这些问题。他们过去只是去到经销店，看中一辆车，然后在财务与保险办公室解决贷款问题。现在你会看到预审批（pre-qualification）增加，因为贷款部分在这个购车过程中变得非常重要。由于更高的利率和价格，人们会问自己：我是否负担得起？

So Jessica Edmonds also put out a stat which I I followed this very closely And you you put out the stat about consumers Buying vehicles at payments over a thousand dollars a month. This is becomes one of the six barometer for consumer spending the car business the health of the market and in q2 2024 17.8 percent of All loans taken out on new vehicles right 17.8 percent so nearly one in five consumers paid over a thousand dollars a month right now Then by the way, that's shy that that is just 10 basis points shy of the record which is 17.9 percent Which was in q4 2023. So we're pretty much at the record or close to it. What I find interesting is New car prices haven't gone up but incentives have Instead of some actually spiked over the last year And you know this is only call it two to three quarters out But what gives right like is our consumers are going after more expensive vehicles? Do our people making more money? Is it inflation is it all three? I mean what what's happening? Doesn't feel like people are making more money. I feel like everyone is saying that like i'm not making any more money Even though things are a lot more expensive But I mean I do feel that like people have these You know vehicles that they you know that they that they want to buy And I don't know if they're justifying to the sales because everything is is more expensive out there But you combine some of these prices with the you know the high interest rates and and the interesting thing about right now is that We are seeing incentives on interest rates like there are subsidized programs. They're not the best They're certainly not how they were pre-covid, but they are out there. So we should in theory start to see that Average incentives are average interest rate go down, but we're not necessarily seeing that. So I think people are probably paying Um a higher interest rate on the higher end. So people maybe with worse off credit And they're kind of going on on that side of the equation Which is keeping the interest rate at where it is So I think that probably is some of the the dynamic that we're seeing out there because it should Go down and that's what I'm looking for. I'm looking for that moment in which incentives will impact it enough For that number to go down and we just haven't seen that yet And that's what i'm following as well. So it's going to be uh, it's going to be very interesting to see this next quarter especially with uh incentives that have sort of plateaued Uh, whether or not that'll keep rising and how that will impact us Yeah, I think the key thing here is just loan is just loan terms because We definitely like to extend the loan terms for as low as possible and a lot of the incentives that are offered are for relatively shorter loan areas that americans Don't want I mean if you're not offering something for over 60 months, I'd say it's not going to appeal to a lot of people But I think those are the sort of the number of 60 months 72 months 84 months. That's that's I think what people really That that's what you start to get like the heads turning Mm-hmm

所以，杰西卡·埃德蒙兹（Jessica Edmonds）发布了一项统计数据，我对此非常关注。你发布了有关消费者以每月超过一千美元的付款购买车辆的统计数据。这成为衡量消费者支出、汽车行业和市场健康状况的六个指标之一。在2024年第二季度，17.8%的新车贷款都超过每月一千美元，差不多五分之一的消费者每月支付超过一千美元。这仅比历史纪录（2023年第四季度的17.9%）低10个基点，我们几乎处于创纪录的水平。 我发现有意思的是，新车价格并没有上涨，但奖励措施却增加了，实际上在去年激增。虽然这只是未来两到三个季度的数据，但是情况如何呢？是因为消费者在购买更昂贵的车辆吗？还是人们赚更多钱了？或者是通货膨胀的影响？还是所有这些因素都有？ 感觉好像人们并没有赚更多的钱，大家都在说他们的收入没增加，即使东西变得更贵了。但我觉得人们确实有他们想买的车辆。我不知道他们是否在向销售人员做各种合理化解释，因为外面的一切都变贵了。 你把这些价格和高利率结合起来，尤其有意思的是我们现在看到的一些利率补贴项目。虽然这些项目不是最好的，肯定不如疫情前的水平，但确实存在。所以理论上我们应该看到平均补贴或平均利率下降，但实际情况并非如此。我认为人们可能在高端市场支付更高的利率，尤其是信用状况较差的人，他们可能在这一方面支付更多，从而保持整体利率不变。 我认为这是我们在市场上看到的一些动态，因为利率应该下降，这是我在关注的点。我在等待奖励措施影响足够大以让这个数字下降的时刻，但我们还没看到这一点。这就是我也在关注的事情。因此，接下来的季度将非常有趣，尤其是当奖励措施趋平时，这种趋势是否会持续上升以及将如何影响市场。 我认为关键在于贷款条款，因为我们确实希望延长贷款期限至尽可能低，很多奖励都是相对较短的贷款期限，而美国人并不喜欢。如果你不提供超过60个月的贷款选项，可能吸引力不大。但是60个月、72个月、84个月这些期限才是让人们真正感兴趣的。

So before we wrap up I want to touch on negative equity because there's been some changes there. If you can you set the table for us on? Again, where we add in terms of negative equities and industry how we how are things trending? Well, we know how things are trending not good, but Get me like if you could just be more specific on you know, it was specifically. The numbers behind how things are trending. I mean when you use values and trade ins were so high just a few years ago because we couldn't make cars. Um, this was not an issue because everyone was so happy. It was like, I mean I remember even seeing these stories that you know We helped put together like are you sitting on a goldmine in your driveway because your vehicle that there could be worth so much money. And it was the case people were delighted on how much money they were getting for their trade ins and things are starting to normalize.

在我们结束之前，我想谈谈负资产的问题，因为这方面有一些变化。你能给我们做个简单的总结吗？再一次说明一下我们现在在负资产和整个行业方面的状况，以及趋势如何? 嗯，我们知道趋势不好，但是能不能更具体一点说明一下呢? 比如，用具体的数据来说明当前的情况。几年前，由于我们无法生产新车，车辆的价值和交换价值非常高，所以负资产问题并不存在。每个人都很高兴，我甚至记得看到过一些报道，说你的车道上可能停着一个“金矿”，因为你的车辆可能值很多钱。确实如此，大家对他们的旧车在换新时获得的高额价值非常满意。但现在这一状况开始恢复正常了。

And you know as a result we're starting to see negative equity creep back up. I mean it was very low Um, and it is still lower than it was has been historically there's been points in time where it has been higher. Um, but I think probably the more concerning thing is just the amount of negative equity that's at a record. It's over $6,000. So people are rolling $6,000 into their next car loan and that You know, that's probably how we get these very high monthly payments as well. Um, people taking advantage of of that. So I think that that probably is Is is fairly concerning because we have to these people that are trading in relatively not very old vehicles and it's sort of like Why is that happening and are are they okay with that decision? And you know as a result this you know, the amount like I said has hit a record level $6,000 is definitely a lot of money.

因此，我们开始看到负资产正在慢慢回升。我的意思是，它之前非常低，现在仍然比历史水平低，但有些时候它更高。不过，我认为更令人担忧的事情是负资产的金额创下了新高，超过了6,000美元。所以人们将6,000美元的负资产计入他们的下一笔购车贷款，这可能也是我们现在看到这么高月供的原因。人们在利用这样的情况。因此，我认为这相当令人担忧，因为这些人正在交易相对不太旧的车辆，这让人不禁问，为什么会这样？他们对这个决定感到满意吗？总的来说，负资产的金额达到了创纪录的6,000美元，确实是一笔不小的数目。

Do we know adjusted for inflation if that is still a record or we're unsure on that? It probably is. I mean looking back in time it usually was a lot lower like. It probably is a function too of car prices going up as well. So maybe adjusted for car price changes as well as inflation Maybe things are you know more directly to car prices, but I'd say that it it likely would be So drilling into negative equity and this is the fun part, right? We see that. Well, yeah, well as as you know as fun as it can be for the conversation It's obviously not a great situation either way, but we do know that EVs are at record levels of negative equity and are driving lots of this. And again every dealer listening to this knows this right If you if you held on to EVs as prices were being cut you felt it If you didn't you saw the price drops, but EVs are leading it now again. I like to put up I like to think positively and I asked myself right, you know Whenever there's you know quote-unquote a crisis. Well, what's the opportunity? And I think the opportunity here is check out this stat.

我们是否知道调整了通胀因素后，这仍然是一个记录，还是我们对此不确定？ 这可能是。我是说，回顾过去，通常要低很多。 这可能也与汽车价格的上涨有关。所以可能在调整了汽车价格变化和通胀因素后，事情更直接地与汽车价格有关，但我认为可能还是会是这样。因此，深入探讨负资产，这是有趣的部分，对吧？我们看到，嗯，正如你所知道的，对于这个话题来说，这已经是最有趣的部分了。不管怎样，这显然不是一个好情况，但我们确实知道，电动车的负资产水平达到了历史最高，并且这是造成很多问题的原因。再一次，每一个听到这消息的经销商都明白这一点。如果你在价格被下调时持有电动车，你已经感受到了。如果没有，你也看到了价格的下跌，但电动车现在是主导因素。再次强调，我喜欢保持积极的心态，问问自己，每当有所谓的“危机”出现时，机会在哪里？而我认为，这里的机会是看看这个统计数据。

This was actually we wrote it in in our car district at newsletter I'm not sure what's the primary source. It isn't sourced in a newsletter, but we. The team pretty much put together this stat they shared and they wrote that the average mainstream EV is now just $1,500 more than its gas powered counterpart. And here's here's the crazy part right that's down from $8400 of difference in May 2023 so what that tells me is that You know, we are likely past the big drops right or or let's say differently Prices have used EVs and used gas are likely closer to parity at this point or getting closer and For all the dealers that I spoke with you were kind of you know scared to touch EVs and have the demand right? I'm not talking about the areas of the country that maybe don't have the demand for electric vehicles And that's totally normal and we're strictly speaking here about just like a money-making capitalist perspective, right?

这是我们在汽车区的通讯中写的，我不确定它的主要来源是什么。它并没有在通讯中注明出处，但这是团队收集的数据并分享出来的。他们写道，目前普通主流电动车的价格只比同类型的燃油车贵1500美元。而这有趣的部分是，这个差距从2023年5月的8400美元降了下来。这个数据告诉我，我们很可能已经度过了大幅降价的时期，或者换句话说，二手电动车和二手燃油车的价格现在更接近或者正在趋近一致。对于我与之交谈过的所有经销商，他们之前有些害怕接触电动车并对需求感到不确定。我不是在谈论那些可能对电动车没有需求的地区，那是完全正常的。这里我们仅从赚钱的资本主义视角来看这个问题。

I don't care about like pro anti I could care less right. It's an asset. It's a piece of metal Can can't make money but in all seriousness, right? When you think about that it feels it seems like the you know They've to two different types of vehicles are getting close to price parity Which as a dealer I would perceive it less risky to potentially try to retail some of those vehicles if I have the market for it so An interesting data point every dealer can listen and then can do it with it. You know as they as they please I know people are very passionate about this topic to be honest. I'm not I'm very dispassioned about it It's just you know, it's it's nuts and bolts, but that's just my opinion But I'm curious if you have any thoughts on that.

我对支持还是反对无所谓，真的无所谓。这就是个资产，就是一块金属。它不能赚钱，但说真的，当你考虑这一点时，似乎不同类型的车辆正在接近价格平衡。作为经销商，我会认为在这种情况下尝试零售这些车辆风险更小，前提是我有市场。所以，这是一个有趣的数据点，每个经销商都可以根据自己的判断去做。我知道人们对这个话题非常热情，但坦白说，我并不感兴趣，对我来说这只是些硬件，但这是我的看法。我很好奇你对这个有什么想法。

Yeah, no, I mean I think that's an interesting status because you know if that is the case then what is the issue? like why are people not necessarily that interested and I think it kind of Points to you know something that we have been talking about just the other challenges of owning an EV because it's not a one-to-one Substitute an EV an internal combustion engine you have to do a whole new you need a whole new system and do people just not want to do that and is that gonna what it's ultimately gonna hold things up until the infrastructure is as seamless as you know having a gas station Because that is something that always comes up in surveys is that consumers don't want to deal with the hassle of owning an EV They're like, yeah sure it's you know, it seems fine But you know, I don't really want to go and do and learn all these things because technology scares people at the end of the day New technology is scary Doing different different things differently is scary kind of departing from what you have known your entire life is also scary So getting over these psychological hurdles seem to be the issue because if price is not an issue anymore Then what is exactly going to hold it back and maybe we have to start addressing some of those those concerns.

是的，不，我是说，我觉得这是一个有趣的情况，因为如果真是这样，那问题到底在哪里呢？为什么人们不一定那么感兴趣？我觉得这指向了我们之前讨论过的一些电动车拥有的其他挑战。电动车不能完全替代内燃机车，你需要一个全新的系统。是不是人们根本不愿意为了电动车去做这些改变？这是不是会成为障碍，直到基础设施像加油站一样无缝对接？ 因为在调查中，消费者总是提到他们不想处理拥有电动车的麻烦。他们会觉得，“是啊，这看起来不错，但我真的不想去学所有这些新东西，因为技术让人害怕。”归根结底，新技术很吓人，做不同的事也吓人，脱离你一生中所熟悉的东西也吓人。所以克服这些心理障碍似乎是个问题。如果价格已经不再是问题，那么到底是什么阻碍了它的发展？也许我们需要开始解决这些顾虑。

So it's probably a high education piece that won't be need to focus So it's like it's going beyond product and price but more and and and speaking of scary It's not just a consumer that may be scared Um, it's also the oh, oh, yeah. Recently Volkswagen group announced that they are going to invest five billion dollars in a joint venture with Rivian Uh, this sort of kind of sent shockwaves through the industry because it was like wow surprising You know legacy automatic action going to invest in Rivian, you know one of the ev you know upstarts What's your take? I mean what what is going on? Are we going to see more of this type of you know, it's it's it's some form of consolidation Right at least capital consolidation for this, you know for developing this technology But what's your take on this investment by uh by Volkswagen? Yeah, I mean from the Rivian standpoint, they need money. I don't think that's probably too much of a question They need the cash. Um, I think from the Volkswagen standpoint probably getting a better hold on You know evs in general probably specifically as it relates to to software, um, you know They have been developing evs, you know fairly aggressively and they haven't necessarily I'd say you know set the world on fire with them yet so Developing better vehicles and you know to me it's just like you got to pull back from Volkswagen because it feels like they haven't really been the same Since maybe like diesel gate if it like the company Changed rapidly from that point and there was a lot of pressure on them post that point to Make environmentally friendly vehicle.

所以这可能是一个高等教育的部分，不需要特别关注。它不仅仅是产品和价格的问题，而是更多的、更深入的。说实话，这让人有点害怕，不仅仅是消费者可能会害怕，还有——哦，对了，最近大众集团宣布他们将投资50亿美元，与Rivian成立一家合资企业。这一消息震惊了整个行业，因为这在传统汽车厂商中是非常罕见的。大众这样一个老牌公司要投资于Rivian这种新兴的电动车公司，你怎么看？这是怎么回事？我们会看到更多类似的情况吗？这在某种程度上是一种合并吧，至少是资本的合并，为了开发这种技术。你对大众的这一投资怎么看？ 从Rivian的角度来看，他们需要资金，这毫无疑问，他们需要现金。而从大众的角度来看，他们可能希望更好地掌握电动车技术，尤其是在软件方面。他们一直在积极地开发电动车，但还没有取得轰动性的成功。大众在柴油门事件后，公司发生了很大的变化，感觉他们自那时起就不再是同一家公司了。事件后，他们面临着巨大的压力，需要开发环保车辆。

So perhaps maybe jumping into the ev space Like almost kind of forced into it. Like maybe it wasn't Necessarily the biggest passion project there, but it was something that they had to do to you know, perhaps change their image a bit Um has kind of got to them to this point where Maybe their evs don't feel you know as as good they make quite a few I mean, I'd say the quality is different amongst all of their their band brand portfolio But I'd say they're probably not like necessarily like a class leading like we would talk about it You know in great lengths of how great it is right? So, you know, I think developing that that better vehicle is is you know sort of What they're aiming to do in the future? Against a lot of their rivals who you know probably have a lot more buzz in this in this area So what so what do you think if you had to sum it up in like one word or two words, right? Good idea or good investment bad investment. What's your take from a strategic perspective? I think it was a decent decision It's just that raving is a startup. So how much how much do they really have there? You know, I guess that probably is is is the question. It's but maybe that's what a legacy automaker needs You know is is that component of it because they can already that you know They got the manufacturing portion down, but it is the other things that they need help with But it is it is risky and we're gonna see a lot of this moving forward as automakers look to find a dance partner for certain things that they You know perhaps are struggling with or unsure about or don't want to go it alone Don't want to do the investment alone. I mean, I think this has been common. It probably is just going to Be even more more common, especially, you know, because we have electric we have electrification Which you know obviously we talk a lot about but also autonomous technology.

也许他们进入电动汽车领域有点像是被迫的。可能这并不是他们最大的激情项目，但为了改变形象，他们不得不这么做。这可能导致他们目前的电动车感觉并不是那么好，虽然他们生产了不少车型。我认为他们品牌旗下的不同车型质量差异很大，但总体来说，它们并不是行业领先的。我们不会花大量时间讨论它们有多棒。所以，我认为他们未来的发展目标是制造出更好的车辆，特别是在许多竞争对手在这个领域声势更大的情况下。 如果要用一两个词概括你的看法，觉得这是个好主意还是坏投资？从策略角度怎么看？我觉得这是个不错的决定，只不过Rivian是个初创公司，所以他们到底能提供多少价值是个问题。但也许这正是传统汽车制造商需要的，因为他们已经掌握了制造环节，但其他方面需要帮助。不过这确实是有风险的。我们会看到未来许多汽车制造商在寻找合作伙伴，因为他们在某些领域可能遇到困难或不确定，或者不想单独投资。我认为这种情况会越来越普遍，尤其是在我们谈论电气化和自动驾驶技术的时候。

That's coming fast and furious as well So it's like these are big Changes that are going to completely change the auto industry And that is a scary expensive proposition So talk to us about the next couple of months. I mean, what's your outlook in the next three months? I feel like I gained a lot of gray hairs over the past 30 days so It shaved a couple of days off my life over all this all this crazy all the craziness that we just experienced in the last month You know with the the hurricane and CDK obviously unfortunate But you know just been very very hectic. So what's in store for the next three months? Talk to me. What do you think? Yeah, well, I mean, here's a deal I think we what we are seeing now is just like a series of black swan events Like it just feels like before a hurricane or something like the CDK would send us like You know, we would go into panic and now it just feels like oh, it's just another crazy thing that's happened Not a industry because it feels like there are so many of those I'd say for the next three months things should be Fairly stable, but we do have an election on the horizon which can completely change things Especially, you know on EVs, but you know with the election cycle, I think coming up that can really start to change things I mean, especially if we have a new administration that can really affect some of the You know the rebates that we're seeing for electric vehicles and if that's the case, what would it do to that market? I mean, I think right now EVs are pretty much selling on Leases, I mean, we have you know almost 70 percent of EVs are sold on leases and it makes sense with the tax credit.

那变化来得又快又猛烈。就像这些大变革将彻底改变汽车行业，这是一个令人担忧且昂贵的提议。那么，接下来的几个月会怎么样？你的展望是什么？感觉在过去的30天里我多了很多白头发，这所有的疯狂让我的寿命缩短了几天。上个月我们经历了很多疯狂的事，有飓风的影响，还有CDK的不幸事件，实在是非常忙乱。接下来的三个月会怎么样？告诉我你的看法。 嗯，我的意思是，现在的情况就像是一系列黑天鹅事件。以前像飓风或者CDK这样的事件会让我们陷入恐慌，而现在感觉就像是又发生了一件疯狂的事情，现在的行业有太多这样的情况了。我认为接下来的三个月情况应该会相对稳定，但有一个选举临近，这可能会完全改变局势。尤其在电动汽车方面，这次选举周期真的可能开始改变一些事情。特别是如果我们有一个新政府，这可能真的会影响到我们看到的一些电动汽车的补贴。如果发生这种情况，对市场会有什么影响？目前，电动汽车大多是通过租赁销售的，几乎70%的电动汽车都是租赁出售的，这与税收优惠有关系。

If that was to go away What you know what is happening to this market especially since this whole conversation has been about all these companies investing So much into into this technology like where does that leave it? And then all of a sudden will it change again in four years time from now? And that uncertainty I think is is probably pretty hard for automakers to to grapple with so That is I'd say probably a big You know that could be a big potential change in 2024 But I think you know from the You know from the ground level I say for the next few months I think I feel like things are going to kind of carry on as as what we are seeing It's just the bigger picture. I think that's a bit more Discerning and that's not really in even a long-term look It is it is pretty much in the short term

如果这一切都消失了，那么你知道，这个市场会发生什么变化呢？尤其是因为我们一直在讨论所有这些公司在这项技术上投入了这么多资金。那么，这一切又会走向何方呢？然后，四年后这一切又会突然改变吗？这种不确定性，我认为对汽车制造商来说是很难应对的。所以，我会说这可能在2024年会有一个很大的潜在变化。但是，我觉得从基层来看，在接下来的几个月里，情况可能会维持现状。只是更大的图景有点令人担忧，这并不是一个长期的展望，这几乎是一个短期的情况。

Any winners or losers that you're forecasting for their city or from a brand perspective anyone you think like you think we're going to maintain course Do you think we should expect to maybe break some trends and we know the usual stellantis teyota Teyota outperforming slants underperforming anything alice on the horizon that your pain attention to Yeah, I mean, I don't think there's anything that is looks like it's going to go off course necessarily it feels like things are going to kind of stay as the army There's not really any catalysts and things that are moving. There's not necessarily any massive like product shifts I mean, hopefully, you know, Toyota will can get some Prius numbers up because 13 is probably not going to Be good for them and for the rest of the year. I imagine that's probably different already, but You know from a from an auto maker perspective. It's not as if there's like any like big changes incentives could change things Someone gets a bit more aggressive with incentives I mean still on this did you know admit that they do have a pricing issue They have addressed it a bit. Are they going to do it more aggressively? So I'd say smaller changes but not necessarily any like structural Differences, you know expected at least in the short term

你预测的城市或品牌有什么赢家或输家吗？或者你认为哪些会保持现状吗？我们应该期待打破一些趋势吗？我们通常知道Stellantis表现不佳，Toyota表现优异，还有其他你关注的前景吗？ 我觉得目前没有什么会出乎意料的变化，感觉情况会基本保持原样。没有特别的催化剂或变动，产品也没有大的变动。希望Toyota能提升一些Prius的销量，13显然对他们来说不是个好数字。我想全年情况可能已经有所不同了。从汽车制造商的角度看，并没有什么大的变化。激励措施可能会有所改变，如果有人在激励措施上更加激进，可能会产生影响。Stellantis确实承认他们有定价问题，并已做出一些调整，不知道是否会更激进一些。所以我认为会有一些小的变化，但预计至少在短期内不会有结构性的差异。

Well, but Jessica Caldwell always a pleasure. Thanks for coming on Thank you. This episode has brought you by my very own car dealership guy news CDG news is here to help you stay updated on all things automotive We're not your typical news crew. We're bringing you concise unbiased car industry news and easy to digest formats From the hottest headlines to podcast summaries dealership best practices and industry insights We've got it all covered and guess what? It's all free no paywalls just like we always promise hop over to CDG.News That's CDG.News and check us out where all your is for your feedback. Tell us what you need Give us your honest thoughts. We're here to deliver real value So don't wait head to CDG.News now or click the link in the show notes below All right. Hope you enjoyed that episode Please give the podcast a rating consider subscribing to the show and check the show notes for links to what we talked about Thanks for tuning in. I'll see you guys next time You.

好的，不过和Jessica Caldwell对话总是很愉快。感谢你的参与。 这一集由我自己的汽车经销商新闻CDG News 赞助推出，CDG News 旨在帮助你了解所有汽车相关动态。我们不是你通常见到的新闻团队，我们带来的是简明公正的汽车行业新闻，并且易于理解。从最热门的新闻头条到播客摘要、经销商最佳实践以及行业洞察，我们一应俱全。而且你猜怎么着？这一切都是免费的，没有付费墙，就像我们一直承诺的那样。 赶快访问CDG.News，也就是CDG.News，来看看我们吧。我们欢迎所有反馈，告诉我们你的需求，给出你真实的想法，我们在这里是为了提供真正的价值。所以不要犹豫，现在就前往CDG.News，或者点击下方的节目备注中的链接。 好的，希望你喜欢这一集。请为我们的播客评分，考虑订阅我们的节目，并查看节目备注中的链接，获取我们讨论的内容。 感谢你的收听，我们下次再见。