Live: Tesla Q2 Earnings Report Coverage & Analysis (Q2-24) - YouTube
发布时间 2024-07-23 14:06:32 来源
中英文字稿 
Hey everybody, Rob Mauer here and today of course we're going to be going through Tesla's Q2 earnings report. We are starting this live stream a little bit before market close, so if you are tuning in after the live stream, check the timestamps down below to fast forward to when the actual earnings come out. Of course, when earnings come out, we'll take a look at the shareholder letter, go through the financials as we always do. I'm looking forward to spending some time again with everybody here today. So right now, not the best day for Tesla so far, down about one and a half percent going into close, but of course not super important because the majority of the movement today will probably happen after we get the earnings report, which should be in about 10, 15 minutes or so. So I figured we could just start the stream now, go through a little bit about what analysts are expecting. Let me turn the volume down just slightly here. Go through a little bit about analyst expectations, some of my expectations before we get the letter and review that. So we'll be constantly refreshing this page here in a little bit, but for now we've got some time. So I'll flip over. We'll just take a look at that quick. And then of course, if anyone does have questions, I know we've, you know, with the less frequent check-ins, I'm sure people are curious on some of my thoughts on some things. So any prompts there for things you want me to talk about, definitely appreciated. All right, so let's flip over to Excel quick, just run through what analysts are expecting here. Oh no. Oh no, I messed up my framing. All right, well, we'll flip over here. I'll fix that in a little bit. Okay, let's see.
大家好，我是Rob Mauer。今天我们要一起看看特斯拉第二季度的财报。我们这次直播稍微早于市场收盘时间开始，所以如果你是在直播结束后才看的，可以查看下方的时间戳，直接跳到财报发布的部分。财报发布后，我们会详细解读股东信，分析财务数据，就像我们惯常的做法一样。我很期待今天再次和大家共度时光。
目前来看，今天对特斯拉来说不太好，股价在收盘前下跌了大约1.5%。但这不太重要，因为真正大的波动可能会在财报发布后出现，预计大约10到15分钟后发布。所以我想我们可以现在就开始直播，聊聊分析师的预期和我个人的一些看法，等会儿财报出来后再进行详细分析。现在，我们会一直刷新页面等待最新数据。在这期间，如果大家有任何问题，我很愿意解答。最近更新不太频繁，我相信大家会对我的一些看法感兴趣，所以如果有想让我讨论的问题，请随时提出来。
好了，我们现在切换到Excel，快速看看分析师的预期。不好，画面有点问题。我稍后再调整。这边切换一下。好的，来看一下。
So this quarter, I think well ahead of most people's expectations for deliveries. So already off to a pretty good start in terms of the delivery number. We also had production that was much lower than deliveries. Whenever we do have a situation like that, that's going to be helpful for free cash flow. We saw the inverse last quarter. So just as a quick reminder, last quarter free cash flow was negative two and a half billion dollars. This quarter analysts are expecting a couple billion dollars of positive free cash flow. You see the volatility there just because when you have more vehicles that are produced than being delivered, that's going to obviously cause cash outflow versus the opposite situation this quarter where you're selling more than you produced, which is cash beneficial.
所以这个季度，我认为交付量远超大多数人的预期。从交付数量来看，已经有一个相当不错的开端。我们的生产量远低于交付量。每当出现这样的情况时，这对自由现金流是有利的。上个季度我们看到的是相反的情况。所以提醒一下，上个季度的自由现金流为负25亿美元。本季度分析师预计自由现金流将正向增长几亿美元。你可以看到波动性，因为当生产的车辆多于被交付的车辆时，显然会导致现金流出，而本季度情况正好相反，出售的车辆多于生产的车辆，这对现金流是有利的。
This quarter, four hundred and forty four thousand deliveries, I'd have to pull up production again, but I think about thirty thousand vehicles less or so. Tesla obviously scaling back production a little bit in accordance with demand is kind of my opinion on that, which is obviously the prudent thing to do. That being said, when you do have less production, if you held everything else equal for the quarter deliveries, everything else all the same, obviously you're going to generate a little bit less economies of scale off of that production. And that's going to hurt your gross margin a little bit. To what degree? I mean, nobody outside of Tesla is going to be able to know that with any certainty, but it is going to have just a little bit of an impact on the gross margin line.
这个季度，送货44.4万辆，我得再查一下具体的生产数据，但我认为大约会少生产3万辆左右。特斯拉显然在根据需求稍微缩减生产，这是我的看法，显然这是明智之举。话虽如此，当你减少了生产量，如果其他所有条件保持不变，那交付量也是一样的，显然你会从这些生产中获得的规模经济效应也会少一些。这会对毛利率有一点影响。具体影响程度？我的意思是，除了特斯拉内部，外界没人能够确切知道，但它肯定会对毛利率有一些影响。
The other thing to keep an eye on this quarter, Tesla in their 10Q after the first quarter did note that because of the staff reductions that they had in April, which of course we had talked about around that earnings report, they do expect to recognize three hundred and fifty million dollars of costs relating to those expenses this quarter. That is something that will likely come in this restructuring and other line. Usually we see the Bitcoin adjustments there, historically we did some of the volatility around that. That's mostly through by now because Tesla has reduced their position and also because it's, you know, Bitcoin is carried, the carrying value of it is at the low, which we haven't seen Bitcoin at a low for a long time. So usually that's been coming in at zero.
还有一点要注意的是，特斯拉在第一季度的10Q报告中提到，由于4月份的员工裁减，预计本季度将因这些支出产生3.5亿美元的费用。这可能会出现在重组和其他费用一栏中。通常我们会在这里看到比特币调整的相关信息，以前我们确实经历过与比特币波动性相关的问题。但目前这一问题基本上已经解决，因为特斯拉已经减少了比特币持仓，同时比特币的账面价值也处于低位，而我们已经很久没有看到比特币处于低位了。所以通常这个地方会显示为零。
As you can see here with the last few quarters, we will though see most likely on this line unless Tesla puts it somewhere else and it could be a combination of lines too, but that three hundred and fifty million dollars or so, probably a little bit more than that, should come in on that line. As you can see, that happens above the operating income and expenses line. So that would lower operating margins if it does fall in that slot. And of course, all the lines below that so net income, gap earnings per share, etc, etc.
正如您在过去几个季度中所看到的，我们可能会在这一栏看到（除非特斯拉把它放在其他地方，也可能是几条线的组合），大约三亿五千万美元，可能会比这多一点，应该会出现在这条线中。正如您所见，这发生在营业收入和费用线之上。所以如果它出现在那个位置，会降低营业利润率。当然，这也会影响到净收入、GAAP每股收益等所有在那线下面的数字。
So anyway, looking at analyst expectations, about twenty five billion dollars in sales up pretty healthfully from Q1, of course, with the fifteen percent increase or so in deliveries. We'll take a look at how average selling prices change quarter over quarter in Q1. We saw those hold steady. Cyber truck, I think starting to contribute a bit to help out those lines, which is nice to see as that volume scales up. And I think Tesla has done a better job of holding prices a little bit steadier after the sequential declines we saw for so many quarters in a row.
所以，总而言之，看看分析师的预期，大概有250亿美元的销售额，比第一季度有相当不错的增长，当然这跟交付量增加了约15%有关。我们还会看看平均销售价格在季度之间的变化。在第一季度，我们看到平均销售价格保持稳定。赛博卡车的销量开始对这些数字有所贡献，这是好事，尤其是随着产量的增加也能带来帮助。而且我认为，经过连续多个季度的价格下降之后，特斯拉在价格稳定方面做得更好了。
For Q2, I'd expect this to be pretty similar, maybe even a bit of an increase here, just based on some of the pricing or lack of pricing adjustments that we saw towards the end of the quarter, Tesla seeming to do a little bit more with financing and special lease offerings and things like that around the end of the quarter. So hopefully that'll hold, but we'll see when that comes out. Mix can obviously affect that stuff too.
对于第二季度，我预计情况会比较相似，甚至可能会有一些增长。基于我们在季度末看到的定价调整或缺乏调整，特斯拉似乎在季度末推出了一些融资和特别租赁优惠。因此，希望这些因素能够保持，但具体情况还需要等数据出来之后再看。当然，不同的产品组合也会对这些情况产生影响。
Gross profit, analysts expecting about 4.4 billion. Again, back up above Q1's 3.7. Pretty close to last year's total for Q2 of 4.5 billion dollars in gross profit. Gross margin, expecting that to be pretty flat. Analysts are, we've seen it kind of hold pretty steady here for the last few quarters. Again, when you have a little bit less production, that's going to hurt your gross margin, but obviously more deliveries, that's going to help your gross margin. So I'm hopeful that it would come in above this level, but we'll obviously find out here pretty soon.
毛利润，分析师预期大约为44亿美元。这个数字再次超过了第一季度的37亿美元，接近去年第二季度毛利润的45亿美元。毛利率方面，分析师预期会比较稳定。过去几个季度，我们看到毛利率基本保持平稳。生产减少会影响毛利率，但显然更多的交付量会帮助提高毛利率。因此，我希望最终数字能高于预期，但我们很快就会知道结果。
Operating margin percent, so expecting that to bounce back a little bit from the second quarter, or sorry from the first quarter, up to about 7.6%, still a little bit below last year, but pretty in line with where Tesla's been sort of trending for the last few quarters. And then non-gap earnings per share, so that's the number that everyone is going to look at as sort of the analyst consensus. Of course, as we always talk about, there's a lot of things that go into these forecasts at the bottom line, not necessarily all that early, it's not the most important figure all the time, but they're expecting 62 cents non-gap, take out stock-based compensation to get your gap number, and that comes down to about 50 cents with the roughly 3.5 billion shares that Tesla has outstanding. I think that's the right share count, I don't have to go back. I'm always adjusting the significant figures there. And then for cash flow, we talked about right around 2 billion, so kind of closer to Tesla's peaks, again driven by the over deliveries compared to production.
运营利润率百分比，所以预期从第二季度反弹一点点，抱歉，是从第一季度反弹，大约到达7.6%左右，仍然比去年略低，但与特斯拉过去几个季度的趋势基本一致。然后是非GAAP每股收益，这是大家会关注的分析师共识数字。当然，正如我们常说的，有很多因素会影响这些预测的最终结果，并不一定每次都早早显现，它并不总是最重要的指标，但他们预期非GAAP每股收益为62美分，扣除基于股票的补偿后得到GAAP数字，大约是50美分，而特斯拉目前大约有35亿股流通股。我认为这是正确的股数，我不需要再回看。我总是在调整有效数字。然后是现金流，我们谈到了大约20亿美元，所以比较接近特斯拉的峰值，再次由与生产相比的过量交付所推动。
Alright, we've got about three minutes here, so I'll mark it close, and then we'll start our refreshing, but see some nice comments here, so I appreciate it. Hopefully the sound is working okay, someone said the sound and videos are missing. Alright, I just want to read through some of these chats here. It's always a little bit nerve-wracking when I start these live streams again after not doing them for so long, making sure everything's going okay. Looks like everything is.
好的，我们还有大约三分钟时间，我会把它结束标记，然后我们开始刷新，不过看到一些不错的留言，非常感谢。希望声音正常，有人反馈声音和视频缺失。好的，我想先阅读一下这些聊天信息。每次在很长一段时间后重新开始这些直播，总是有点紧张，想确保一切都顺利运行。看起来一切都正常。
So again, if you have any questions about things you want me to talk about, let me know. Obviously it's been a lot going on in the broader world outside of Tesla, but a busy quarter for Tesla as well. Sound 5x5, I don't know what that means. Alright, well hopefully everything is going okay. But yeah, so FSD version 12.5, I have not had a chance to test that yet. My car is parked in a parking garage, so I never have any cellular service to it unless I'm actually out driving it, so I never know if I get an update.
所以，如果你有任何问题想让我谈谈，请告诉我。显然，特斯拉以外的更广泛的世界发生了很多事情，但特斯拉本季度也很忙。声音5x5，我不知道那是什么意思。好吧，希望一切顺利。但总之，关于FSD版本12.5，我还没有机会测试。我的车停在停车场里，所以除非我开车出去，否则我没有任何蜂窝网络服务，因此我不知道是否有更新。
1. I have read that this is only for hardware 4 model-wise. I think Elon posted that on X either last night or today, so I haven't confirmed that personally. I would have to double check it, but if that's the case, I do not have that. I have to get a Model 3 2021, so I wouldn't be getting 12.5, but it sounds like the initial feedback is pretty strong. For me, 12.4 has not been great. It seems like a little bit of a step back from 12.3.6, which I thought was fantastic. I think I've shared my thoughts on that on X, and I think we probably talked about it at the last earnings call. But that being said, hopefully at least it sounds like initially 12.5 is probably more of what 12.4 was supposed to be, and I think is coming out now sooner than what we would have expected if 12.4 was what we had expected initially. Hopefully we can just write off 12.4, which seems like what Tesla is doing. We've found it at 12.5, and hope to see continued progress with FST. Because again, 12.3.6 has just been an insanely massive step forward. 12.4, to me at least, probably a little bit of a step back. Hopefully we can continue those steps forward again with 12.5.
我听说这个只适用于硬件4的型号，我认为Elon昨晚或今天在X平台上发过这个消息，所以我个人还没有确认。我需要再仔细检查一下，如果确实如此，那我现在没有这个硬件。我有的是2021款的Model 3，所以我不会得到12.5版本，但初步反馈看起来非常好。对我来说，12.4并不是很理想，感觉比12.3.6稍微退步了，我认为12.3.6非常出色。我想我在X平台上分享过我的看法，我们可能也在上次财报电话会议上讨论过。但是，希望初步来看12.5可能更像是12.4原本应该达到的版本，而且比我们预期得更早发布了。如果12.4是我们最初期望的，希望我们可以把12.4看作一个过渡版本，Tesla也似乎在这么做。我们发现12.5并寄希望于FST的持续进步。因为12.3.6确实是一个非常大的进步。对我来说，12.4可能稍微倒退了一点，希望我们能通过12.5继续向前迈进。
2. Are you still long, Tesla? Yes, still in Tesla. Nothing has changed there. If that changes, I'll let you guys know. Yes, still definitely invested in Tesla. Let me try and fix this window here, or this window stuff here. I think I have to go back into the scene to actually fix that. Bear with me. It's going to be a little bit annoying here. I always get this set up so perfectly, and then it's so difficult to get it back. But that actually went pretty well. Awesome. Okay, so let's see. Stock is down just a little bit more. It looks like we are now closed at $246.38 down 2% in the day. When I asked Zach Felloff throughout the day, it looks like certainly in a close here, you can see quite a bit of a drop there. I'm no surprise for Tesla to drop a little bit too towards the end of the day. I kind of see those curves being the same. But otherwise, definitely an underperformance on the day to day.
2. 你还持有特斯拉的股票吗？
是的，我还持有特斯拉的股票，没有任何改变。如果有变化的话，我会告诉大家。是的，绝对还投资在特斯拉上。让我试着修复一下这个窗口，或者说窗口相关的问题。我想我得回到设置界面才能真正修好它，请稍等一下。虽然这有点烦人，但我总是先把它设置得很完美，然后再恢复起来就很难。不过，这次其实还算顺利。好吧，让我们看看，现在股票又稍微跌了一点。看来我们现在收盘价是$246.38，比今天下降了2%。当我问到Zach Felloff的时候，一天中显然在这里收盘，你可以看到有相当大的下降。我对特斯拉在收盘前稍微下跌不感到惊讶。我看到那些波动曲线差不多是一样的。总的来说，今天的表现确实不尽如人意。
3. All right, so let's see. This framing is still slightly off. Do I risk fixing it? Yes. All right. We'll begin our refreshing process. The last few quarters, I feel like my first sign that something has been released is usually this after hours trading session. So we'll keep an eye on that too. Sometimes I have the Twitter feed or the X feed for Tesla. It can be a little bit of a risky refresh because you never know what's going to pop up there. But sometimes people will post on their names, report is out as well. I did figure out the hotkeys for clearing my cache. So I know sometimes that'll make it not appear too. So hopefully we're all set up here to get the report.
好吧，让我们看看。这种框架还是有点不对。我是否冒险修复它？是的。好吧，我们开始刷新过程。在过去的几个季度里，我感觉到某些信息发布的第一个迹象通常是在盘后交易时段。所以我们也会关注这一点。有时候我会看着特斯拉的Twitter或X的动态。这有点冒险刷新，因为你永远不知道那上面会冒出什么，但有时候人们会发布他们的报告也出来了。我已经找到了清除缓存的快捷键，所以有时候这个也会让信息不显示出来。希望我们已经准备好了接收报告。
4. Energy, someone I just saw someone mention energy. Super excited about energy. As we've talked about before, it can be a little bit, I don't know, batchy from quarter to quarter depending on when deliveries or projects, I guess, are really like commissioned and started to be recognized. So it doesn't necessarily track with like production or how we might think of deliveries normally. So to see such a big spike means next quarter, we shouldn't expect like a similar growth rate, obviously. Hopefully we'll kind of continue to see things around this like nine gigawatt hour plus level and continue to see growth. But just keep that in mind. Last quarter we had for Q1 versus Q4, the growth was pretty small. So just keep that in mind. Some of the volatility around that number just based on when projects happen or when they're recognized.
4. 能源，有人刚刚提到能源，我对此感到非常兴奋。正如我们之前讨论过的，能源项目的表现可能会有些波动，这取决于交付或项目开始和认定的时间。所以它不一定与生产或我们通常理解的交付方式保持一致。所以，看到这么大的增长，意味着下季度我们不应该期望类似的增长率。希望我们能继续看到类似于九吉瓦时或更高的水平，并继续增长。但请记住，上个季度我们就看到第一季度和第四季度的增长比较小。所以请记住，这个数字可能会有一些波动，具体取决于项目何时发生或被认定。
5.
Not much movement after hours yet. Move yourself a little to the left, Rob. I feel like I'm pretty centered. I don't know. I move around a little bit. So. I'm going to have to drink water too because we're probably going to be going here for a while. And then of course, forgot to mention this, but I'll do my earnings call, normal stuff, where we're doing sort of a little bit of a transcribing process during the call.
交易结束后还没什么动静。罗布，稍微向左挪一挪。我感觉我已经在中间了。我不确定，我总是在动。所以，我得喝点水，因为我们可能要持续一段时间。当然，还得提一下，我会照常进行财报电话会议，期间我们会做一些记录整理的工作。
And then I'll share my thoughts afterward, of course, as well. So in terms of other expectations, I know in the first quarter, let me just open this up here quickly. I think there was a lot of positive reaction to sort of the outlook section. If I can just pull that up again, this is not the current earnings report yet. Still waiting on that. Remember, they have in the first quarter deck, they started to say that they've updated the future vehicle lineup to accelerate the launch of new models. I think they said towards the end of this year, I'd have to go back and read that more carefully when I've got some more time.
然后，我当然也会分享我的想法。至于其他预期，我知道在第一季度的时候，让我快速打开看看。我觉得展望部分有很多积极的反应。如果我能再找出来，这还不是当前的收益报告，我们还在等待。记得在第一季度的报告中，他们开始提到更新未来车款列表，加速新车型的发布。我记得他们说过会在今年年底左右，需要更多的时间来仔细阅读。
But that obviously played into the positive reaction after the first quarter earnings report. And the last month or so, we've had a nice month, Tesla up 35% in the last month, which is always fun to see. Expectations could be a little bit higher going into this report than they were for the last quarter. All right, down 2% looks like something might be out here. We'll see maybe just a fake. Someone's saying it's out, but I'm not seeing it yet. Well, you see if I can just change the link here. Sometimes that does it. All right, there we go. That did it. So we do have the report. It is now out. So we're going to read through it, but let's just go through and see some of the highlights because initially the market is of course going to be reacting to these two numbers.
但这显然促成了第一季度财报后积极的反应。在过去一个月左右的时间里，我们有一个不错的月份，特斯拉在过去一个月里上涨了35%，这总是令人高兴的。对于这份报告，预期可能会比上一季度高一些。好吧，下跌了2%，看来可能有什么情况发生了。我们看看是不是假的。有人说报告出来了，但我还没看到。好吧，我试着换个链接。有时候这样做有用。好了，这次成功了。报告确实出来了。我们现在来读一下，但先看看一些要点，因为市场最初肯定会对这两个数字作出反应。
So 42 cents gap earnings per share, 52 cents non gap earnings per share. If we just compare that to analyst expectations, those were at 62 cents non-gap and 50 cents gap. So about eight cents short there. We'll see that would actually be right about the same number that the $350 million of expected sort of restructuring costs would be. I don't know how well analysts factor that in. So we'll see how big of a factor that is. But initially looks like a little bit soft there. Revenue is coming in actually a little bit higher than analyst expectations. That gross margin also a little bit higher. We'll see maybe that's driven by regulatory credits. You can see the giant get the giant jump here in energy revenue up to $3 billion up 100% year over year. Really nice to see that services and other also increasing 21% year over year and quite a big jump quarter over quarter as well. So just kind of looking at some of those operating margin.
所以调整后每股收益为42美分，非调整后每股收益为52美分。如果我们仅仅将其与分析师的预期比较，预期的非调整后收益为62美分，调整后收益为50美分。因此有大约8美分的差距。我们注意到，这实际上相当于预计的3.5亿美元重组成本的差额。我不确定分析师在多大程度上将这一点考虑在内。我们需要看看这一因素有多大的影响，但初步看来表现有些疲软。收入实际上略高于分析师预期，毛利率也稍高一些。可能是由监管信贷驱动的。你可以看到能源收入的巨大增长，达到了30亿美元，同比增长100%。此外，服务和其他业务收入同比增长21%，且季度环比也有较大幅度的增长。所以我们只是简单看一下这些运营利润率指标。
This looks like it was well below expectations. So again, this could be a result of just the restructuring stuff not really being accounted for in the analyst forecast. Tough to say when you're just looking at a consensus. Some people probably factored it in. Some people probably didn't. So we'll take a look at that. EBITDA. I don't think we get an analyst forecast for that. So we'll just have to kind of see. And then free cash flow at 1.3 billion. So below analyst expectations, but still healthy positive. Tesla now up to $31 billion in cash. So that's a quick look at the finances. Let's then look through some of the highlights here. I didn't do this last time. So it didn't have such a big effect. Let's just take a quick look at the outlook section. Just in case anything major change there. That is an important section.
看起来这远低于预期。这可能是由于重组事项未真正被分析师预测所考虑造成的。仅从共识来看很难说清楚。一些人可能考虑到了，而一些人可能没有。所以我们需要再看看具体情况。EBITDA（息税折旧摊销前利润），我认为我们没有分析师的预测数据。因此我们只能大致地观察一下。自由现金流为13亿美元，虽然低于分析师预期，但仍然是健康的正值。特斯拉现在的现金储备达到了310亿美元。这是财务状况的一个简要回顾。接下来我们来看一些亮点。上次我没有做这个，所以影响不大。让我们快速浏览一下展望部分，以防有重大变化。这是一个重要部分。
All right, plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models remain on track for started production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of our next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms. And we'll be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle lineup. This approach will result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected, but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times. This should help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to 3 million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing alliance. Our purpose built Robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary unboxed manufacturing strategy.
好的，关于新车型的计划，包括更加实惠的车型，仍然按计划在2025年上半年开始生产。这些车型将利用我们下一代平台的一些特性以及当前平台的一些特性，而且可以在现有的制造线上生产。这种方法将导致成本减少不如预期多，但使我们能够在不确定时期，以更高效的资本支出方式谨慎增加车辆产量。这有助于我们充分利用目前预计的接近300万辆的最大产能，实现2023年生产量的50%以上增长，而无需投资新的制造联盟。我们专门打造的无人出租车产品将继续推行革命性的无包装制造策略。
So that kind of gives us a little bit of hint there that Robotaxi would come after this sort of first half 2025 window, which isn't terribly surprising. But given that the event was supposed to be in August, sounds like now may be delayed till October, not terribly surprising that that would still be something that would happen after the second half of 2025, or at least in that period. So not too surprising there. All right, let's go back. We'll go through just see how the stock markets reacting after a little bit of initial period there. So we're at $240 a share, so down 2.6% so far. All right, so some of the highlights, $1.6 billion operating income gap operating income in the second quarter after restructuring and other charges of, yeah, there you go, 600 million. So it looks like Tesla was a little bit off with their forecast on 350 million or more. And again, if we go back to the operating margin, that's why you see a higher gap growth margin here than analyst expectations and a lower operating margin. Because that is where those numbers are coming in at. It's raising the op X here by up to $600 million to 2.0, almost $3 billion versus analyst expectations for operating expenses were around $2.5 billion.
这样看来，机器人出租车的推出时间可能会在2025年上半年之后，这并不令人感到意外。虽然活动原计划在8月举行，现在看起来可能会推迟到10月，但这并不出人意料，而且机器人出租车的发布也有可能会在2025年下半年前后。好吧，让我们继续看看股市的反应。在初期波动后，目前股价在每股240美元左右，下跌了2.6%。一些亮点包括：特斯拉在第二季度调整和其他支出后的营业收入为16亿美元，其中包括6亿美元的重组费用。因此，特斯拉比他们预测的3.5亿美元以上的目标略有偏差。而在营业利润率方面，GAAP（一般公认会计原则）增长利润率高于分析师预期，营业利润率较低，因为这些数字包含在其中。这使得运营费用增加了6亿美元，达到接近30亿，而分析师对运营费用的预期约为25亿美元。
So that's the biggest hit there. And again, that's fine because this is a one time charge. Hopefully, I mean, they were well off on their forecast. So hopefully nothing to come in future quarters. But that's a normal number that you would back out of earnings. Some people complain about stuff like that. You do it in both positive and negative ways. And in this case, just because it's something that shouldn't be recurring and should actually have positive effects on these operating expenses in future quarters, it is something that you'd want to back out of your forecast to be able to forecast better for future quarters. So it's not something that true investors are really going to mind too much, even though it did come in well over the forecast, which is maybe a different story.
所以这是最大的影响。然而，这完全没问题，因为这是一次性的费用。希望，至少他们的预期差距很大，所以希望未来几个季度里不会再出现类似情况。这是一个正常的数字，你在计算收益时会把它剔除出去。有些人会抱怨类似的情况，不过其实无论正面还是负面的事件，你都需要这样做。在这种情况下，因为这是不应该反复出现的事情，而且实际上在未来几个季度里对这些运营费用会有正向影响，你需要将其从预测中剔除，以便更好地预测未来几个季度的表现。所以，这不是真正的投资者会太在意的事情，尽管它的确大大超出了预期，但这又是另一回事了。
But in general, it shouldn't be something that is concerning when you're just looking at sort of the bottom line here versus analyst expectations, if that's what it's being driven by. It looks like we're covering a little bit there in after hours. All right, so we'll come back to that. But $1.5 billion gap net income in the second quarter, $1.8 billion non-gap net income in the second quarter. Operating cash flow, $3.6 billion in free cash flow we talked about. AI infrastructure capex was about $600 million in the quarter. Of course, we know Tesla doing a lot of that in near gigataxis, $3.9 billion in cash and investments in Q2 up to about $31 billion, which is great. Record energy storage deployments, 9.4 gigawatt hours, we've talked about that, but again, an amazing number for the second quarter. Optimists began performing tasks autonomously in one of our facilities. Tesla's already talked about that.
但总体而言，当你只是看这里的底线与分析师预期相比时，这不应该是令人担忧的事情，前提是这是由此驱动的。看起来我们在盘后交易中有一些回升。好的，我们会回过头来看这个问题。第二季度非公认会计原则净收入为18亿美元，按照公认会计原则净收入为15亿美元。运营现金流为36亿美元，自由现金流如我们所提到的，也是36亿美元。AI基建设施资本支出在本季度约为6亿美元。当然，我们知道特斯拉在近乎巨型出行项目中投入了大量资金，第二季度现金及投资增加到大约310亿美元，非常好。创纪录的能源存储部署达到了9.4吉瓦时，我们已经谈过这个，但这仍然是第二季度一个惊人的数字。特斯拉的机器人在我们的一个设施中开始自主执行任务，特斯拉已经谈到过这一点。
I think we may have as well. Cyberchuck became the best selling EV pickup in the United States in the second quarter, which is great. Also a little bit of a low bar and something that should be expected depending on when that's another story, but no surprise to see cyberchuck take that slot eventually. And hopefully we start to see it compare. Maybe not as the number one best selling truck in the world. Tesla's production goals are not at that level, but one of the best selling trucks in the world in the United States, hopefully at some point in the future.
我认为我们也可能知道了。Cyberchuck在第二季度成为美国最畅销的电动皮卡，这很棒。当然，这也意味着市场基准相对较低，应该是预料之中的事情。不过，看到Cyberchuck最终占据这一位置并不令人惊讶。希望我们未来能看到它的对比表现。也许它不会成为全球最畅销的卡车，因为特斯拉的生产目标还没到那个水平，但希望它能在未来某个时候成为美国乃至世界上最畅销的卡车之一。
In the second quarter, Tesla achieved record quarterly revenues despite a difficult operating environment. The energy storage business continues to grow rapidly, setting a record in Q2 of 9.4 gigawatt hours of deployments, resulting in record revenues and gross profits for the overall segment. We also saw a sequential rebound in vehicle deliveries in Q2 as overall consumer sentiment improved, and we launched attractive financing options to offset the impact of sustained high interest rates. We recognized record regulatory credit revenues in Q2 as other OEMs are still behind on meeting emissions requirements.
在第二季度，尽管经营环境艰难，特斯拉依然实现了季度营收的新纪录。能源存储业务继续迅速增长，在第二季度达到了9.4吉瓦时的部署量，再创纪录，带来了整体业务的创纪录收入和毛利。随着消费者信心的改善，我们在第二季度的汽车交付量也出现了环比回升，并推出了有吸引力的融资选项，以应对持续高利率的影响。由于其他汽车制造商在满足排放要求方面仍然落后，我们在第二季度的监管信用收入也创下了新高。
Full EV penetration returned to growth in the second quarter and is taking share from ICE vehicles. We believe that a pure EV is the optimal vehicle design and will ultimately win over consumers as the miss on range, charging and service are debunked. Progress continued on our AI initiatives in the second quarter. We reduced the price of FSD supervised in North America, launched free trials to everyone with the necessary hardware. These programs have demonstrated success and are laying the foundation for more meaningful FSD monetization. We expect to see an increase in FSD attachments for our fleet as the capability improves and we increase awareness of the convenience and safety it offers users.
在第二季度，电动汽车的普及率重新增长，并开始从内燃机汽车中抢占市场份额。我们相信，纯电动汽车是最佳的车辆设计，最终会因对续航里程、充电和服务问题的误解被揭穿而赢得消费者的青睐。第二季度，我们在人工智能方面的进展也在持续。我们在北美降低了全自动驾驶（FSD）辅导版的价格，并向所有拥有必要硬件的用户推出了免费试用。这些计划已经显示出成功的迹象，并为更大规模的FSD货币化打下了基础。随着FSD能力的提升以及我们进一步提高其便利性和安全性的宣传，我们预计将有更多用户为我们的车队配备FSD功能。
Overall our focus remains on company-wide cost reduction, including reducing cost of goods sold per vehicle, growing our traditional hardware business, and accelerating development of our AI-enabled products and services. Though timing of Robotaxi development depends on technological advancement and regulatory approval, we are working vigorously on this opportunity given the outsized potential value. Currently we are managing our product portfolio with a long-term orientation and focusing on growing sales, maximizing our installed base and generating sufficient cash flow to invest in future growth.
总体来说，我们的重点仍然是全公司范围内的成本削减，包括降低每辆车的销售成本、发展传统硬件业务以及加速开发具备人工智能功能的产品和服务。尽管自动驾驶出租车的发展时间取决于技术进步和监管批准，但鉴于其巨大的潜在价值，我们正全力推进这一机会。目前，我们正在以长远目标管理产品组合，专注于增加销售、最大化已安装的客户基础，并产生足够的现金流以投资于未来的发展。
I don't think anything too surprising in this summary here. Again probably the most unexpected thing on this page would be the $600 million in restructuring costs which is obviously affecting things there. They do mention the regulatory credit so we'll take a look at that. Those are something that contributes significantly to the gross profit. Usually when forecasting I like to back that out and see how X-credit, X-regulatory credit gross margins coming in.
我觉得这里的总结没有什么太出乎意料的内容。再次强调一下，这一页上最意想不到的可能就是6亿美元的重组成本，这显然对整体情况有影响。他们确实提到了监管信用，我们也会看看这个。这些监管信用对毛利有很大贡献。通常在预测时，我喜欢把它们剔除掉，看看没有这些监管信用的毛利率表现如何。
I don't know that we'll be able to look at that a little bit later once we put the numbers into the spreadsheet. So someone can keep an eye on there. I don't think anything else on that financial summary page that we need to look at. This is going to talk about directionality in terms of the influence of some factors on these revenue and profitability and cash items. So revenue in the second quarter increased 2% year over year. Tesla as mentioned said that was a record number in revenue. Driven by growth and energy storage, cyber truck deliveries, high-regulatory credit revenue, growth in services and other, reduced vehicle pricing outside of cyber truck, excluding foreign exchange impact due to pricing, attractive financing options and mix, decline in vehicle deliveries outside of cyber truck, and negative foreign exchange impact of $300 million in the second quarter. Operating income decreased year over year, $1.6 billion in the second quarter. A lot of the same things as mentioned above.
我不确定我们是否能在稍后将数据输入电子表格后再查看。所以可以有人留意一下。我觉得在那份财务摘要页上没有其他需要我们看的内容。接下来我们将讨论一些因素对收入、盈利和现金项目影响的方向性。
第二季度收入同比增长了2%。特斯拉提到这是创纪录的收入数字。这一增长主要受能源存储、Cybertruck交付量、高法规信用收入、服务和其他业务的增长推动，同时还包括除Cybertruck以外的车辆价格下降，排除因定价带来的外汇影响，吸引人的融资选项和变化，除Cybertruck以外车辆交付量的下降，以及第二季度3亿美元的负面外汇影响。
营业收入同比减少了16亿美元，下降至第二季度的一些因素与上述提到的相似。
So we won't need to read all of that. But they do also mention lower cost of production ramp of 4680 cells and other related charges being a less significant impact on profitability than the previous period. Quarter and cash cash equivalents. So we talked about that. So driven by a positive free cash flow of $1.3 billion, inventory decrease of $1.8 billion and partially offset by AI infrastructure cap X of $600 million in the quarter.
所以我们不需要阅读所有内容。但他们也提到，4680电池的生产成本降低和其他相关费用对盈利的影响比上一个季度小。还有现金及现金等价物的问题，我们已经讨论过了。由于有13亿美元的正自由现金流，库存减少了18亿美元，并部分被本季度6亿美元的人工智能基础设施资本支出所抵消。
All right. So total production. Total deliveries. It looks like that didn't change too much. Lease accounting. Not any major difference there as we already knew from the delivery report. Vehicle inventory days of supply strongly declining down to 18 back in line with where Tesla had been prior to last quarter, or pretty close at least. This is something you can easily calculate once the delivery report is out. So no surprise on that. Although some people like to hype it up a little bit when we do get the earnings report. Both locations looks like pretty small increase, but 20% increase year over year. Mobile service fleet actually declined by one, but still up 7% year over year. Not surprised to see the less significant quarter of a quarter growth year with some of the restructuring and things that Tesla did in the second quarter. Supercharger growth continues almost 6500 supercharger stations now up 23% year over year with connectors up 24% almost to 60,000 worldwide.
好的，总产量，总交付量，看来变化不大。租赁会计方面没有重大差异，我们从交付报告中已经知道这一点。车辆库存供应天数大幅下降到18天，这与特斯拉上个季度之前的情况相符，或者至少非常接近。这一点在交付报告发布后很容易计算，因此不意外。尽管有些人喜欢在财报发布时大肆渲染一下。两个地点看来增长都不大，但同比增长20%。移动服务车队实际上减少了一辆，但同比仍增长了7%。在特斯拉第二季度进行的一些重组和调整后，季度间增长较小也不让人意外。超级充电站的增长继续，目前已有近6500个超级充电站，同比增长23%，充电接口同比增长24%，几近60000个，遍布全球。
Alright, vehicle capacity will open up here in a second. Well, we can just do that now. The first quarter deck. So again, we'll try not to get confused between the two, but just to compare how this chart looks in both. See if there are any differences other than for some reason the fonts are loading differently. That looks like those are all the same, both in terms of capacity and status as last quarter. Make sure we close the right ones. That's the first quarter we'll close that. Alright, so in terms of the notes here, Tesla says they continue to add to the vehicle lineup globally, including the introduction of the new Model 3 and Model Y trims and additional paint options for the lineup after a sequential decline in production in the second quarter. We expect a sequential increase in production in Q3. So that's nice to, nice to hear. The refresh Model 3 ramp continued successfully, including the introduction of Model 3 performance in the second quarter, long-range rear wheel drive in July. We also continue to qualify more Model 3 trims for the IRA tax credit, Cybertruck production more than tripled sequentially, and remains on track to achieve profitability by the end of the year. So two great updates there on Cybertruck. And then preparation of the semi-factory continues and is on track to begin production by end of 2025. So still quite a ways out on semi-production, but if you've been following that, it does look like they are starting to make some moves there in Nevada. So that's exciting on the semi-front.
好吧，车辆容量很快就会开放。我们现在就可以处理。首先是第一季度的情况。所以，我们尽量不要在两者之间搞混淆，只是对比一下这两张图表的情况，看看是否有区别，除了某些字体加载得不同外。看起来在容量和状态方面都和上季度相同。确保我们关闭正确的图表。第一季度的已经关闭了。
好了，就笔记内容来说，特斯拉表示他们继续在全球扩大车辆阵容，包括引入了新的Model 3和Model Y版本以及新增的漆颜色选项。继第二季度产量环比下降后，我们预计第三季度产量将环比增加。这是个好消息。焕新版Model 3的增产继续顺利进行，包括在第二季度推出了Model 3的性能版，以及在七月推出的长续航后轮驱动版。我们还继续为更多的Model 3版本申请IRA税收抵免资质。Cybertruck的产量环比增长了三倍以上，并有望在年底实现盈利。所以，关于Cybertruck有两个好消息。
然后，半挂卡车（Semi）的工厂建设也在继续，计划在2025年底前开始生产。因此，半挂卡车的生产还有一段时间，但如果你一直在关注这一进展，它们确实在内华达州开始了一些动作。这对半挂卡车来说是个令人兴奋的消息。
In Shanghai, significantly increased deliveries in several markets supplied by Giga Shanghai in the second quarter, including South Korea. While the automotive market in China remains among the most competitive globally, we feel that our cost structure and focus on core functionality that drives value for customers, including autonomy, position as well for the long term. And then in Europe, Giga factory Berlin began producing vehicles for right-hand drive markets and delivered its first vehicles into the United Kingdom. We also began delivering vehicles and guitar while increasing deliveries to Israel and Taiwan. Our regional production strategy provides flexibility as needs change across markets. Market share of Tesla vehicles by region, so you can see, had started to see a little bit of a decline, still continuing to see that a little bit here in Europe and looks like a little bit in China. US and Canada looks like they've held steady here in the last quarter.
在上海，第二季度通过上海超级工厂供应的几个市场，包括韩国，交付量显著增加。尽管中国的汽车市场仍然是全球竞争最激烈的市场之一，我们觉得我们的成本结构和对核心功能的关注，即为客户提供价值，如自动驾驶，使我们在长期内具有优势。此外，在欧洲，柏林超级工厂开始为右舵市场生产车辆，并首次向英国交付车辆。我们还开始向卡塔尔交付车辆，并增加向以色列和台湾的交付。我们的区域生产策略提供了灵活性，以应对各市场的需求变化。从区域来看，特斯拉车辆的市场份额有所下降，尤其是在欧洲和中国。尽管如此，美国和加拿大的市场份额在上个季度保持稳定。
Alright, core technology.
So nice to see this chart here.
I was curious to see how this would come in.
Cumulative miles driven with FSD.
So you can see Tesla's done a good job of segmenting out version 12 miles in red and FSD miles previously driven in blue.
You can see a very small sliver there early this year, but now over the last quarter, a huge jump after 12.3 went to wide release to FSD customers.
And nice to see this.
It looks like Tesla's added over 500 million, maybe 700 million or so miles on just FSD version 12 since late in the first quarter, depending on how these line up here.
Anyway, in the last quarter, it looks like probably about 500 million miles on FSD, which is always nice to see that accumulation happen and obviously very helpful for Tesla in terms of training.
好的，核心技术。
很高兴看到这张图表。
我很好奇这会如何呈现出来。
累积的FSD行驶里程。
你可以看到特斯拉在图表上很好地分出了12版本的里程（用红色表示）和之前FSD行驶的里程（用蓝色表示）。
你可以看到在今年早些时候有一个非常小的部分，而在上个季度12.3版本广泛推出给FSD客户后，出现了一个巨大的跳跃。
很高兴看到这个。
从今年第一季度末以来，仅12版本的行驶里程似乎增加了超过5亿，也许是7亿左右，这取决于这些线是如何对齐的。
无论如何，在上个季度，FSD的行驶里程看起来大约有5亿里程，这种累积显然对特斯拉在训练方面非常有帮助。
Alright, so in the second quarter, we focused on reducing interventions with FSD while improving driving comfort.
好的，那么在第二季度，我们专注于减少FSD（全自动驾驶系统）干预，同时提升驾驶舒适度。
Notably, we rolled out a version of FSD supervised that primarily relies on eye tracking software to monitor driver attentiveness.
值得注意的是，我们推出了一个版本的FSD（全自动驾驶）监督系统，主要依靠眼动追踪软件来监测驾驶员的注意力。
We also increased the robustness of our next gen FSD model with substantially more parameters. Looking forward, looking ahead to future autonomous driving and robot taxi service, we continued progress on software and hardware development.
我们还通过增加大量参数，提高了下一代全自动驾驶（FSD）模型的稳定性。展望未来的自动驾驶和机器人出租车服务领域，我们在软件和硬件开发方面持续取得进展。
Optimists is performing its first task handling batteries in one of our facilities.
乐观者机器人首次在我们的一处设施里执行电池处理任务。
The south extension of Gigafactory Texas is nearing completion, and will house our largest cluster of H100s yet.
德州超级工厂的南部扩建部分即将完工，将容纳我们迄今为止最大规模的H100集群。
For vehicle and other software, we continue to release software optimizations that enable an increasingly better experience for customers.
针对车辆和其他软件，我们不断发布软件优化，以便为客户提供越来越好的体验。
The spring release included an immersive full screen vehicle controls, a view, wind parked, charge playback controls, and quick access to recents, favorites, and up next in media player, and an expandable autopilot visualization with a smaller map in the top right for trip guidance.
春季发布包括一个沉浸式的全屏车辆控制界面，一个停车时的风景视图，充电回放控制，快捷访问最近使用、收藏夹以及媒体播放器中的即将播放内容，还有一个可扩展的自动驾驶可视化界面，右上角有一个较小的地图用于行程导航。
Audible is now available as a native app.
Audible现在有原生应用程序了。
Spotify queues can be synced across vehicles, and devices and playback speed can be adjusted. That's a nice update there for some of the UI stuff, for Spotify, for podcasts. I don't like to listen to myself at one X speed, obviously for live streams you have to, but it's definitely a nice feature there for Spotify as well.
Spotify 的队列可以跨车辆和设备同步，同时播放速度也可以调整。这对于 Spotify 的用户界面和播客来说是一个不错的更新。我不喜欢以正常速度听自己说话，直播时当然不得不这样，但这个功能对于 Spotify 来说确实是一个很好的改进。
Okay, so Tesla AI training capacity ran through the end of the year, so we are now here. Tesla's forecast is here in the dotted blue, but we've talked about just how significant this training capacity has been in the last six months. If you go from September of 2023, so I guess it's sort of nine months here, you're looking at, I don't know, 4000-ish H100 equivalents there, and now Tesla will be up to right around 40,000. So, an order of magnitude increase just in the last nine months in terms of Tesla's training capacity, and it looks like they plan to more than double that again before the end of this year.
好的，特斯拉的AI训练能力已经持续到年底，所以我们现在看到的是这样。特斯拉的预测显示在蓝色虚线部分，但我们已经讨论了过去六个月训练能力的重要性。从2023年9月开始，嗯，大约过去了九个月，你会看到大概有4000个H100等效设备，现在特斯拉的数量将增加到大约40,000个。所以，在过去的九个月里，特斯拉的训练能力增加了一个数量级，并且看起来他们计划在今年年底前再增加一倍多。
So, very exciting to see, and I think Tesla just is in the very early stages of starting to be able to optimize for this massive increase in capacity. It's going to take them time to figure out how to best utilize that.
所以，这真是令人兴奋，我认为特斯拉目前只是刚刚开始能够针对这种巨大的产能提升进行优化。他们需要一些时间来找出最佳的利用方法。
So I think we're seeing a little bit of those growing pains right now with 12.4, but hopefully Tesla gets that stuff figured out and really unlocks the full value of this additional capacity, and we start to see that in the end-state product with FSD here pretty soon. I think we've already seen it with 12.3.6.
我认为我们现在正在经历 12.4 版本带来的阵痛，但希望特斯拉能解决这些问题，真正释放这个额外容量的全部价值，这样我们很快就能在最终的产品中看到完全自动驾驶的效果。我觉得我们已经在 12.3.6 版本中看到了这种改进。
All right, battery powertrain and manufacturing. In the second quarter, we produced over 50% more 4680 cells than in the first quarter, so that's really nice to see. Continued to see cost improvements. In July, we entered validation of vehicle testing for our first prototype Cybertruck produced with in-house dry cathode 4680 cells.
好吧，说到电池动力系统和制造。第二季度，我们生产的4680电池比第一季度多出50%以上，这真是不错。同时，我们也在持续改善成本。七月份，我们开始对首辆使用自家干法阴极4680电池的原型Cybertruck进行车辆测试验证。
A major cost reduction milestone once ramped.
一旦全面投入运行，将实现大幅度的成本降低。
Cost reduction across our product lineup remains a top priority. So I think that's a really, really positive update on 4680s. We had seen some reporting. Obviously, we haven't had a chance to talk about it, but there had been some reporting that Tesla had, I don't know, breakthroughs the right word, but had sort of figured out the dry battery electrode for the cathode portion. It sounded like previously they were doing it for anode, but hadn't quite figured out the cathode part yet, or had continued to have equipment break with that process. But there was reporting that Tesla had seemingly started to figure it out, and now it was more a matter of ramping that production, which kind of always is a major question. But if that reporting is to be believed, that does seem to track a little bit closely with what Tesla is saying here, especially the validation of vehicle testing for the first prototype Cybertruck with that dry cathode. So some pretty exciting things there, and I'm sure we'll probably hear a little bit more about that on the call, but who knows what direction the call we're going today, especially with everything else that's going on in the world.
我们在整个产品线中的成本缩减仍然是首要任务。所以，我认为关于4680电池的更新是一个非常非常积极的消息。我们之前看到了一些报道。显然，我们还没有机会讨论，但有报道称特斯拉在某种程度上解决了干电极技术在正极部分的应用问题。我不知道“突破”这个词是否正确，但似乎他们之前在负极部分已经做到了这一点，但在正极部分还没有完全解决，或者在这个过程中设备频繁出故障。但有报道称，特斯拉似乎已经开始解决这个问题，现在更重要的是如何提高生产规模，这一直是一个重大问题。但如果这些报道属实，这确实与特斯拉在这里所说的内容有些吻合，特别是对于首款原型Cybertruck的干正极电池的车辆测试验证。因此，这里有一些令人兴奋的信息，我相信我们可能会在会议中听到更多相关内容，但谁知道今天的会议会朝什么方向发展，尤其是在世界上发生这么多事情的情况下。
Other highlights are non-automotive business is becoming an increasingly profitable part of Tesla as energy storage products continue to ramp and our vehicle fleet continues to grow. We are expecting continued profit growth from our non-automotive business over time. So non-automotive gross profit, which you can easily get to set up those other buckets. You can see here jumped up to what is almost a billion dollars here in the second quarter, and again almost doubling from the previous quarter. One second. All right, energy storage and generation. Megapack and Powerwall achieved record deployments in the second quarter, 9.4 gigawatt hours. Overall energy business achieved record revenues, growth profit, gross profit in the second quarter. Lathore Megafactory continues to ramp successfully, achieving a production record in the second quarter, and the Shanghai Megafactory remains on track for start production in the first quarter of 2025. While we expect production to continue to grow sequentially deployments, we'll continue to fluctuate. That's some of the volatility that we talked about. Deployment timing depends on many factors, including project milestones and logistics timing as we deliver product globally from a single factory.
其他亮点包括：特斯拉的非汽车业务正在成为一个越来越赚钱的部分，随着能源存储产品的逐步增加和我们的汽车队伍的不断壮大。我们预计非汽车业务的利润将持续增长。因此，非汽车业务的毛利，你可以很容易地从其他类别中看到，在第二季度几乎增长到十亿美元，比上一季度几乎翻了一番。
能源存储和发电方面：在第二季度，Megapack和Powerwall达到了创纪录的部署量，达到9.4吉瓦时。整体能源业务在第二季度实现了创纪录的收入和毛利。Lathore超级工厂在第二季度成功增加了产量，创下生产记录，而上海超级工厂预计将在2025年第一季度开始生产。
虽然我们预计生产将继续逐步增长，但部署量会有所波动。这种波动性与我们之前提到的因素有关。部署时间取决于多个因素，包括项目进度和物流时间，因为我们从单一工厂向全球交付产品。
Powerwall 3 rollout continued successfully and is now available in Canada, the UK and Germany in addition to the US. So reading between the lines there, Tesla doesn't really expect another quarter of as significant growth here in Q3 for energy. I wouldn't either. We talked about that before the call. It sounds like even maybe we could see a decline again, reading between the lines there may be a little bit too far, but if that were to be the case, it's not something to be, you know, sad or disappointed about. It's just natural volatility. You might have a huge project that comes online one quarter, and then you might work for the next three quarters on, well, hopefully not that long, but you know, kind of understand the point there that it can just take some time and be volatile.
Powerwall 3 的推广继续取得成功，现在除了美国，还在加拿大、英国和德国上线。因此，从字里行间看出，特斯拉并不指望第三季度能源部门会有同样显著的增长。我也不这么认为，我们在电话会议前就讨论过这个问题。虽然这样猜测可能有些过头，但即使结果真的如此，也没必要感到难过或失望。这只是正常的波动。有时一个大型项目可能会在某个季度上线，接下来的几个季度可能都在进行其他工作，虽然不一定需要那么长时间，但您明白我的意思，它可能需要一些时间，而且存在波动。
For services and other sequential profit growth in the services and other business was driven mostly by service center margin improvement and higher gross profit generation from collision repair. We continue to expand our supercharging network and expect to deploy more capacity this year than the rest of the industry combined in North America with a focus on capital efficiency, congestion and improved coverage. In an effort to increase EV penetration, we remain committed to opening the network to non-tesla EVs and plan to onboard more OEMs in North America by the end of the year. Over time, network utilization should continue to increase driving revenue growth and profit generation. So nothing surprising there. I mean, with all the drama with the supercharging network, I think most people have moved on from that, but obviously Tesla continuing to reiterate that that will be a growth area for them.
在服务和其他业务中的持续利润增长主要是由服务中心利润率的提升和碰撞修理业务中更高的毛利率驱动的。我们继续扩大超级充电网络，并预计今年将在北美部署比其他整个行业更多的容量，重点放在资本效率、拥堵和覆盖率的改善上。为了增加电动车的普及率，我们依然致力于向非特斯拉电动车开放网络，并计划在年底前接纳更多的北美原始设备制造商（OEM）。随着时间推移，网络使用率应会继续增加，推动收入增长和利润生成。因此，这里没有什么让人感到意外的。我是说，尽管超级充电网络有很多争议，但大多数人对此已经释然，显然特斯拉也在继续重申这将是他们的一个增长领域。
Alright outlook, we talked about the product, but in terms of volume, our company is currently between two major growth waves. First one began with the global expansion of Model 3 and Model Y platform, and we believe the next one will be initiated by advances in autonomy and introduction of new products, including those built on our next generation vehicle platform. In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023 as our teams worked on the launch of the next generation of vehicles and products.
好的，关于前景，我们讨论了产品方面，但在数量方面，我们公司目前正处于两个主要的增长阶段之间。第一个增长阶段始于Model 3和Model Y平台的全球扩展，我们相信下一个增长阶段将由自动驾驶技术的进步和新产品的推出（包括基于我们下一代车辆平台的产品）来引领。
2024年，我们的汽车销量增长率可能会显著低于2023年的增长率，因为我们的团队正在致力于下一代车辆和产品的推出。
In 2024, the growth rates of energy storage deployments and revenue in our energy generation and storage business should outpace the automotive business. We have sufficient liquidity to fund our product roadmap. We will continue to manage the business to maintain a strong balance sheet during this uncertain period. And on profit, while we continue to execute on innovations to reduce the cost of manufacturing and operations over time, we expect our hardware-related profits to be accompanied by an acceleration of AI, software, and fleet-based profits. So a lot of these are consistent with what we had heard last quarter.
在2024年，我们能源存储业务的部署和收入增长率应超过汽车业务。我们有足够的流动资金来支持我们的产品路线图。在这个充满不确定性的时期，我们将继续管理业务以保持强劲的资产负债表。关于利润，虽然我们会继续实施创新以逐步降低制造和运营成本，但我们预计我们的硬件相关利润将会伴随人工智能、软件和车队相关利润的加速增长。这些大多与我们在上季度听到的一致。
I don't think any major changes with any of those buckets there. For products, I think I'm remembering again, I'd have to go back and look at the notes, but what we looked at for the first quarter outlook section, I think pretty similar here, new products for the first half of 2025. I think maybe where I'm thinking end of this year, maybe you wanted to mention that as a possibility on the call, but I think obviously we should put more weight in this earnings report line here.
我认为那些方面不会有任何重大变化。关于产品，我想我记得得再去看看笔记，不过我们在第一季度展望部分讨论的内容，我觉得这里也差不多，2025年上半年会有新产品推出。我可能在考虑今年年底的时候，也许你想在电话会议上提到这个作为一种可能性，但我认为显然我们应该更重视这次收益报告中的这一行内容。
Alright, photos and charts, global BEV market share. So you can see China continues to increase EV market share. The rest of the world outside of China looks like it's kind of stagnated there at about 5% for the last year or so. Obviously with Tesla being such a major portion of the market share outside of China, this Tesla's growth rate is going to heavily influence this. Tesla's market share in China is a little bit lower. As they said, the most competitive EV market. So it kind of makes sense that that may continue to grow. Tesla's going to have more of an influence on the growth rate here. But there are certain market things, of course, alongside that. Just want to make sure that maybe that's not immediately as apparent as some of the other points. Gigafactory Texas, so the South Expansion Data Center looks like it's going to be a really cool part of the property there. So nice to see. The Lithium Refinery and Corpus Christi started production in 2025. That looks like that development continuing nicely there. Cybertruck Shop. A lot of wine clicks, quick silver. Oop, that nice little call out there of 1.99 APR financing. Lunar Silver from AutoSNX. Mega packs more than a 1 gigawatt hour project here. Which we just say like it's a normal thing. Five years ago, it won't have been, but it's exciting that it is now a more normal thing. Autonomously handling battery cells. So I think Tesla posted a video or maybe around the shareholder meeting had this in a video.
好的，照片和图表，全球电动汽车（BEV）市场份额。可以看到，中国的电动汽车市场份额继续增加。过去一年里，中国以外的世界其他地区的市场份额大约停滞在5%左右。显然，由于特斯拉在中国以外市场中占据了如此大的份额，其增长率将对整体市场产生重大影响。特斯拉在中国的市场份额稍低，因为中国是最具竞争力的电动汽车市场。所以，可能这种增长会继续。特斯拉会对这里的增长率有更大的影响。但当然，也有一些市场因素在起作用。只是想确保这点可能没那么直接显现出来。
德州Gigafactory，南扩展数据中心似乎是该地块一个非常酷的部分，非常令人期待。锂精炼厂在科珀斯克里斯蒂预计于2025年开始生产，发展得非常良好。Cybertruck生产车间，很多亮点，快速银色。噢，看到了一个不错的提示——1.99%的年利率融资。来自AutoSNX的月球银色。Mega packs项目超过1千兆瓦时。五年前，这是不可能的，但现在令人兴奋的是它成为了常态。自动处理电池单元。我想特斯拉发布了一个视频，或者是在股东大会期间展示了这个。
And then we can see some of the charts, which we don't usually spend too much time on. And then we get into financials. So we'll go through the spreadsheet and fill in some of those more specific financials. Maybe we'll just take a quick look at regulatory credit revenue while we're here. Ooh, yeah. That's significant. 890 million dollars. So X regulatory credit revenue, which again, it's important to kind of think about how that affects gross margin because of the volatility on this line for one. And because there's no guarantee that these things will persist in the future. Obviously, regulatory environments can and will change for good or for better. Sorry, for better. So I always like to just see what things are without that. Because if you remove that, it's going to be a major change in terms of the gross margin, probably falling, I don't know, more in line, at least, if not below what analysts expected.
然后我们可以看看一些图表，虽然我们通常不会花太多时间在这上面。接着我们会讨论财务状况，所以我们会浏览电子表格，填入一些更具体的财务数据。也许我们可以顺便快速看看政策性碳积分收入。哦，嗯，这个数目很可观啊。8.9亿美元。所以，扣除政策性碳积分收入之后，再考虑一下这对毛利率的影响，因为这一项的波动性很大，而且不能保证未来还会有这些收入。显然，政策环境会不断变化，不管是好还是坏。因此，我总是喜欢看看不含这些收入的情况。如果你把它剔除掉，毛利率可能会有很大的变化，可能会下降，不知道，至少可能会更符合甚至低于分析师的预期。
And then of course, on that restructuring and other line, you have the 622 million dollars. So it did looks like it maybe not entirely fell on that line, but a large chunk of restructuring another on that line, which again, is going to lower your operating income and operating margins pretty significantly as well as the bottom line. More significantly than what was expected based on what Tesla put in the 10Q. So that actually, those things work to offset a little bit of each other in terms of the bottom line. We'll kind of have to think about exactly how much that would be. It seems like it's maybe a pretty similar offset. I think maybe you'd forecast somewhere around, I don't know, 500, 600 million dollars in regulatory credits just based on how the last few quarters have been.
当然，在重组和其他项目上，你会看到6.22亿美元。因此，虽然看起来这些费用不完全归于该项，但很大一部分的重组费用确实会出现在这个项目上，这将大幅降低你的营业收入和营业利润率，以及底线利润。而且，这个影响比根据特斯拉在 10Q 文件中预期的要显著。实际上，这些因素在一定程度上会互相抵消。我们需要仔细估计一下具体会有多少影响，看来这种影响可能大致会互相抵消。我认为你可能会预估到大约5亿到6亿美元的监管信贷，这基于过去几季度的情况。
So you've got maybe an extra 300 million dollars there and maybe an extra 300 million dollars here too. So in terms of those things kind of offsetting each other a little bit for the bottom line, then it looks like the bottom line would still sort of be a missed analyst expectations. But again, that's why the bottom lines aren't really the perfect basis for comparison because we don't necessarily know how analysts were factoring both of those items in. And certainly across the group, there's going to be different estimates from all parties and different accounting for those things or non-accounting for them. So it's just tricky.
所以，你这边可能多了3亿美元，那边也多了3亿美元。所以总体来说，这些因素彼此间有些抵消，但最终的结果似乎还是没有达到分析师的预期。不过，这也说明了仅从最终结果来比较并不是一个最完美的基准，因为我们不一定知道分析师是如何考虑这些因素的。而且，不同的人会有不同的估计和对这些因素的处理方式，所以情况确实比较复杂。
But if you say those things cancel out a little bit, then you probably are still missing analyst expectations here on the bottom line, at least a bit. All right, so let's flip over and see how the stock is doing. Looks like we've held pretty steady since the initial release at about 242 right now. Not too crazy. But again, I'm not saying anything like nothing too surprising here. Nothing. I think last quarter, we had sort of the big surprise of, hey, we're going to put new products in by the beginning of next year. We're going to try to grow our capacity up to that 3 million level from we basically been at about a 1.8 million level now for a while in terms of deliveries at least.
但是，如果你说这些因素有点互相抵消，那么你可能还是没有完全达到分析师的预期，至少在净利润方面还有些差距。好的，我们来看看股票表现如何。现在看来，自从最初发布以来，我们的股价基本保持稳定，现在大约在242左右。不是太夸张。但是，我不是说这里没有任何惊喜。没有。我认为上个季度，我们曾经有一个大惊喜，就是我们将在明年初推出新产品，并试图将我们的产能从目前差不多180万台的交付量提升到300万台的水平。
So we're not seeing any major surprises like that this quarter, which I think contributes a little bit to the muted reaction. You're not going to get something like that every quarter. And then of course, the numbers coming in below and analyst expectations, at least in terms of operating margins and bottom line. All right, I'll try to keep an eye here on some of the chat, see what your guys thoughts are. And if you have any questions, hopefully that went OK.
所以我们这一季度没有看到那种大惊喜，我认为这让反应有些平淡。你不可能每个季度都遇到那种情况。当然，运营利润率和净利润比分析师预期低，这也有影响。好了，我会留意一下聊天区，看看大家的想法。如果有任何问题，希望刚才的解释还算清楚。
But let's flip over to Excel for the most fun part of the day, which is watching me fill in the spreadsheet. If I can flip over here, there we go. So again, bear with me. Just part of what we got to do if we want to react to this live. But hopefully this helps get us a little bit more context than what the numbers in the release do on their own. So in energy storage and generation, obviously, we know that's about 9.4 gigawatt hours. But let's just I'm just going to hop back and forth between the two here. So I don't think we actually get the significant digits of megawatt hours. Tesla just saying 9.4. So we'll just update that in the future and reduce our significant digits. For now, we'll just say 9,400.
但现在让我们切换到Excel，迎接今天最有趣的部分——看我如何填写电子表格。如果我能成功切换，好的，我们成功了。所以，请稍微耐心一点。这是我们要实时反应的一部分工作。不过，希望这样做能让我们比只看发布的数字得到更多背景信息。在能源存储和发电方面，我们知道大概是9.4吉瓦时。但让我在这两者之间来回切换一下。我认为我们实际上没有得到兆瓦时的有效数字。特斯拉只是说9.4。所以我们将来会更新并减少有效数字。目前，我们就说9400。
But it looks like Tesla just rounding that out to gigawatt hours now, which is a nice sign. It's a new stage of growth for Tesla to change that from megawatt hours to gigawatt hours on those deployments. Energy generation, Tesla has stopped reporting. It's become quite insignificant unless something changes with solar roof. I think that it's going to continue to be this way. And with Tesla not reporting it anymore, that's also a sign in and of itself. Unfortunately, obviously, I think we'd all love to see that business performing better. But it's been a small part of business. I think there was potential for it at one point, but it just hasn't seemed to quite click unfortunately. So maybe that changes in the future, but for now, no reporting on that.
但看起来特斯拉现在正把这个数字四舍五入到吉瓦时，这是个好迹象。这意味着特斯拉进入了一个新的增长阶段，将部署的电量从兆瓦时转变为吉瓦时。至于能源生产，特斯拉已经停止报告相关数据。除非在太阳能屋顶方面有变化，否则这个业务显得相当微不足道。我认为这种情况会继续下去。而特斯拉不再报告它的数据，本身也是一个信号。不幸的是，显然我们都希望看到这项业务表现得更好，但它一直只是业务中的一小部分。我认为它曾经有很大的潜力，但很遗憾地看起来还没有真正起色。所以也许未来会有改变，但现在不会再报告相关数据。
Automotive sales. So let's just check this one. And again, bear with me. Just going to take me a minute to get through these numbers. But for automotive sales, looks like we're at 18, 530, which is actually well below. And I just want to make sure. OK, so yeah. Give me a second because that's wrong. So we're actually above it because we get it included leasing. So we're at 19, 878. So a little bit above, but again, with the regulatory credit contribution of 890. I think if you look at X credits, we don't get that unfortunately with the analyst consensus we used to. I'd love for that to come back if anyone from IR is watching. If you take out what was probably the forecast, we'd probably fall below on automotive sales versus analyst expectations.
汽车销售。让我们检查一下这个数据。请耐心等一下，我需要一点时间来查看这些数字。就汽车销售来说，似乎是18,530，这实际上是远低于预期的数字。我想确认一下。好的，等一下，这个数字有误。实际上，我们要把租赁也包含进去，所以是19,878。这个数字稍高于预期，但其中包括890的监管信用贡献。如果不计入这些信用，我们不太幸运地达不到分析师的共识。我希望这个数据能够恢复，如果投资者关系部门的人在看，希望你们能注意到这一点。如果剔除预测中的因素，我们的汽车销售可能会低于分析师的预期。
For energy sales, though, looks like that is going to come in above. That was just over $3 billion. So 5% or so above analyst expectations and then services and others, 2608, which gets us to our 25, 500. If I can just spend a second on revenue, I think we're seeing above analyst expectations on automotive sales, but I think driven by regulatory credits, which I think if you exclude those, this would probably be below analyst expectations by maybe $100 million. That's then being offset, more than offset, in my opinion, by the energy sales and the services and other. You've got about a $200 million beat on services and other, about $150 million beat on energy sales line. Knowing what energy storage was going to be going in, it's nice to see that the energy revenue was a little bit higher than expected. Which obviously means the ASP was a little bit higher in that bucket as well.
关于能源销售，情况看起来有点超预期。能源销售额刚刚超过30亿美元，大约比分析师的预期高出5%左右。此外，服务和其他收入为26.08亿美元，使我们总收入达到255亿美元。
如果我能花一点时间谈谈收入，我认为汽车销售收入超过了分析师的预期，但这是由监管积分推动的。如果不包括这些积分，收入可能会低于分析师的预期，大约低1亿美元。然而，能源销售和服务与其他收入则更多地弥补了这一不足。
具体来说，服务和其他收入超出预期约2亿美元，能源销售收入超出预期约1.5亿美元。考虑到能源存储的情况，很高兴看到能源收入比预期稍高，这显然也意味着该项目的平均销售价格（ASP）也略高。
Though again, that can be tricky to forecast for some of the reasons that we've already talked about. ASP will figure that out in a little bit. We'll have to use our calculator on that one. And then automotive profit, these are not correct yet. Obviously, margins were not 100%. So I just have to enter in the costs here. Make sure we're including leasing in this one this time. Energy storage, that was $2274. So really healthy profit there. Yeah, man. $750 million profit in energy. It's awesome. Really exciting. And then services and other, 2441. We'll use this with $4.6 billion in gross profit. We'll just double check and make sure that matches, which it does. So these numbers should now be correct. And of course, we don't get a breakdown for analyst consensus on all these items. But you can see total gross profit, a couple hundred million dollars above, about 4% above analyst expectations. So again, a lot of that probably coming from regulatory credits. That could easily add more than the $200 million difference here. But I think energy probably surprised as well as services and other. This is probably a record. I don't want to unhide those because it'll mess up my view here. But potentially a record for services and other profit, certainly for energy. No question on that one at $740 million, up 166% year over year, which is great to see.
虽然我们已经讨论了一些原因，这些预测仍然很难确定。ASP（平均售价）稍后会算出来，我们需要用计算器来算一下。然后是汽车利润，这些数据还不正确。显然，利润率不可能是100%，所以我必须在这里输入成本。这次一定要包括租赁费用。能源存储的利润是2274万元，所以利润非常可观。哦，7500万美元的能源利润，真是太棒了，非常令人兴奋。然后是服务和其他项目，利润是2441万元。我们将使用46亿美元的毛利润来计算。我们需要仔细检查以确保数据匹配，结果匹配正确。所以这些数字现在应该是正确的。当然，我们不能获得所有这些项目的分析师一致预期的详细分解数据。不过你可以看到，总毛利润比分析师预期高出几亿美元，约高出4%。这很可能主要来自于监管信用，这部分很容易超过2亿美元的差异。但我认为能源和服务及其他项目的表现也令人惊喜。这可能是服务和其他项目利润的纪录，尤其是能源项目方面，没有疑问，7400万美元，同比增长166%，非常不错。
So automotive gross profits, you can see. So that's the disappointing part, right? 16.4% X credit dropping you 14.6 X credit. As you guys know, as many of you know, this is one of the first numbers that I would look at historically when opening up an earnings report. So to see this drop by 180 basis points, quarter over quarter, especially when we didn't seem to have as much pricing action. We'll take a look at the ASPs here in a second. But when we didn't seem to have quite as much pricing action, that's definitely a disappointment on the automotive gross margin X credit line. This massive, massive regulatory credit number is making things up here look quite a bit better. But when you come down here, it's like, man, that is a disappointing drop. One of the bigger drops that we have seen, even over the last few quarters, I mean, you can go back and looks like last year Q2 to Q3 was a similar drop. And obviously we know during this period, that was a tough period where people were, you know, very, I don't know, questioning the cost strategy, the pricing strategies and things like that. So hopefully they'll share a little bit more about this. And on the call, we may have to go back and read through. I know they mentioned it a little bit in the shareholder letter, but that is a pretty significant drop there in auto gross margin X credits, which is definitely not worthy.
那么，汽车业务的毛利，你可以看到。这是令人失望的部分，对吧？扣除信贷后是16.4%，这样扣除信贷后是14.6%。正如大家所知，很多人都知道，这一数字是我在打开财报时首先观察的数字之一。因此，看到这一季度比上一季度下降了180个基点，尤其是在我们似乎没有进行太多定价调整的情况下，这确实令人失望。我们稍后会看看平均售价（ASP），但当我们似乎没有进行那么多定价调整时，这确实在扣除信贷后的汽车毛利线上很令人失望。这个巨大的监管信贷数字使得情况看起来好一些。但当你看到这里时，会觉得，这是一个令人失望的下降。即使在过去几个季度中，这也是我们见过的较大下降之一。回顾去年第二季度到第三季度，似乎也有类似的下降。显然，我们知道在那段时期，人们对成本策略、定价策略等都存在诸多质疑。所以希望他们在电话会上能详细说明一些。在股东信中，他们稍微提到了一些，但在扣除信贷后的汽车毛利上有如此显著的下降，确实值得注意。
Energy gross margin. Let me check my formulas, but looks like that's the same. Yeah. So they are different. Rounding out to the same 24.6% for energy gross margin, so holding steady quarter over quarter, but obviously on, you know, double the revenue almost of the first quarter. All right. So total gross margin again, coming in above expectation, I think energy profits and service and others helping when you have a beat on the energy line, because this is now at a higher gross profit margin than then auto by a pretty significant amount, that's going to help pull your total up to you as that's a larger percentage of the mix. We've talked about that before.
能源毛利。让我检查一下我的公式，不过看起来是一样的。对，它们是不同的。不过都舍入到相同的24.6%，所以能源毛利率在逐季持平，但显然，收入几乎是第一季度的两倍。好的，总毛利再次高于预期，我认为能源利润和服务及其他的帮助作用很大，因为现在能源部门的毛利率明显高于汽车部门的，这会帮助提高你的总毛利比例。我们之前讨论过这个问题。
And then sort of conversely, when you have services and other, if that's a higher portion of the revenue, that's going to pull the margins down, but still at a healthier level than it was in the in the first quarter. So anyway, I'm mixing out at 18%, but again, most of that probably driven by this regulatory credit number being higher than expected. All right. R and D. Let's check that out quick. It was 1074. So nothing too surprising there. That's held pretty consistently around a billion for the last few quarters. SGNA 1277. Oh, what just happened there? Oh, this is a different sheet.
然后相反地，当服务和其他业务占收入的比例较高时，利润率会下降，但仍比第一季度要健康。所以无论如何，我的估计是18%，但这其中大部分可能是受到监管信用额度高于预期的影响。好的，让我们快速查看一下研发费用。数值是1074。这个数值没有什么太惊讶的，一直在最近几个季度里保持在大约十亿。销售和管理费用是1277。哦，刚刚发生了什么？哦，这是不同的表格。
Alright, we're back. Um, that was my last quarter sheet. Uh, okay. Reorientate myself here. So SGNA about 1.3 billion, not too different from last quarter. Um, up 7% over year. So nothing crazy. Uh, but then we did have this $622 million charge here on a restructuring, which is going to be, um, obviously a major, major hit on the operating margin. So you can see op X right around 3 billion, uh, just below, let's just double check that to make sure that that number is correct. Operating expenses. 2973.
好的，我们回来了。嗯，那是我最后一张四分之一的表格。呃，好吧。让我重新整理一下思路。SGNA是大约13亿美元，与上个季度相比没有太大变化。嗯，同比增长7%。所以没什么特别的。但是我们确实有一个6.22亿美元的重组费用，这显然会对运营利润率造成重大影响。所以你可以看到运营支出大约在30亿美元，稍低一点，让我们再核对一下确保这个数字是正确的。运营支出是2973（百万美元）。
Yep. So that's correct. Operating income 1605 also correct. So operating margin falling below again, driven significantly by that, uh, I would say roughly $250 million higher number than what was expected. Uh, from the 10 key, which again, you can see Tesla's words down here. I expect to recognize an excess of $350 million in costs, uh, in the second quarter. That's a significant difference. I, it would be nice if Tesla said something about that and why it was such a higher number. I mean, this is definitely an excess. Uh, but when you're being as specific as 350 million, certainly you'd expect something that's between 350 and 400, uh, not 622.
是的，这没错。营业收入1605也正确。所以营业利润率再次下降，主要是因为这个数额高于预期，差不多高出了2.5亿美元。从10-K报告中你可以看到，特斯拉在这里指出，预计第二季度将确认超过3.5亿美元的成本。这是一个显著的差异。特斯拉能解释一下为什么这个数额如此之高就好了。这肯定是超出预期了。但当你具体提到3.5亿时，通常预期是在3.5亿到4亿之间，而不是622亿。
So, uh, definitely an overrun on that looks like maybe something just was not, not anticipated in terms of those restructuring costs. Uh, for EBITDA, let's see what that came in at. One second. So that's 3674. Again, no analyst forecast on that one, but pretty similar to the levels we've been seeing. Uh, gap net income or non-gapels is 1842. So obviously we need this from the earnings per share numbers, but falling below expectations.
所以，嗯，显然在这个方面超支了，可能是因为没有预料到这些重组成本。嗯，至于EBITDA（息税折旧摊销前利润），让我们看看结果是多少。稍等一下。是3674。虽然没有分析师的预测，但这个数字跟我们之前看到的水平差不多。至于 GAAP（美国公认会计准则）净收入或者非GAAP净收入，是1842。显然，我们需要这些数据来算每股收益，但结果低于预期。
Uh, I would say these things kind of washed out again, regulatory credits and the restructuring overrun when we're talking about some of these bottom lines. So I think ultimately this just automotive gross margin number is causing, you know, if you say these, these two buckets washed out with the restructuring and the regulatory credits, if you kind of say those cancel on the bottom line, um, which I think would be a relatively fair statement. And what is really ultimately causing this, this miss on, uh, people are going to criticize me because it's like, did they miss? Uh, we've talked about that a lot. Everyone has an expectation. It's just a way it doesn't mean it's like the end of the world or anything.
呃，我会说这些东西又重归于平淡了，像监管信用和重组超支，当我们谈论这些底线时。所以我认为最终只是汽车毛利率数字导致了这个问题。你知道，如果你说这两部分—重组和监管信用—相互抵消了，我认为这基本上是一个相对公平的说法。而真正导致这个差距的是，呃，人们会批评我，因为就像，他们是否真的差了？我们已经讨论过很多次了。每个人都有期望，这只是某种表现方式，这并不意味着世界末日或者类似的事情。
But if there's an expectation, stock prices are based on future expectations. It's fair to say that, you know, companies, if numbers come in below those expectations, it's fair to say they missed expectations. Again, doesn't mean anything, uh, is wrong with the company or that the company is bad or something like that. Stock prices are based off future expectations. So you have to put things in those terms. Um, but sorry for the sidetrack.
但是，如果有预期，那么股票价格是基于未来预期的。可以说，如果公司的数据低于这些预期，那就可以说它们未达预期。这并不意味着公司有什么问题或者公司不好之类的。股票价格是基于未来预期的，所以你需要从这个角度来看待问题。抱歉，说远了。
Uh, I think the missed expectations here primarily being driven by this automotive gross margin, uh, X credit number coming in lower, I think analysts were probably expecting that to be relatively stable quarter over quarter, just based off of this total gross margin number. I mean, maybe they were expecting a little bit of decline. Depends how much they were factoring in that, uh, I guess this wouldn't be in that yet.
呃，我认为这里未达到预期主要是因为汽车毛利率（去掉信贷后的数字）较低。我觉得分析师们可能预期这个数字季度之间会相对稳定，仅仅基于总体毛利率数字。也许他们预计会有一点下降，这取决于他们把多少因素考虑进去，嗯，我猜这部分还不包括在内。
Um, with these margins, forecasts or expectations holding similar to the last quarter, uh, I certainly think this is number, this number is lower than expected and had I done a forecast, honestly, probably would have been for me too, based on what we had talked about before, uh, the call or before the report came out, which was that, uh, the pricing actions that they took towards the end of the second quarter didn't seem to be as significant as what we had seen historically.
嗯，根据这些利润率，如果预测或期望和上一季度相似，那么我确实认为这个数字低于预期。如果让我来做预测，老实说，可能也会是这样。因为根据我们在电话会议前或报告发布前的讨论，他们在第二季度末采取的定价措施似乎没有之前看到的那么显著。
Uh, but again, there, there can be so many different factors that drive that. Uh, so it's hopefully we get a little bit more information on that during the, during the call. All right. Stock based compensation. So let's just get that quick. So that was 439. So that's going to offset a little bit of some of that restructuring stuff when I'm talking about the bottom line number. You can see that's the lowest of any quarter in the last, you know, five quarters, uh, not, not super significantly, but with the restructuring, it makes sense that would be a little bit lower.
呃，但是，再次强调，可能有很多不同的因素导致这种情况。希望我们在电话会议中能获得更多的信息。好的，股权薪酬部分，我们快点讲一下。这部分是439，这会在我提到最终数字时，稍微抵消一些重组相关的影响。可以看到，这是过去五个季度中最低的，呃，虽然不是特别显著，但考虑到重组，这个数字稍微低一些也是合情合理的。
And as we had talked about the restructuring, it's going to be a one-time hit going forward. I mean, maybe there'll be some stuff that flows in the third quarter a little bit, but going forward, most of that stuff should be, um, done and accounted for, and then going forward, then you should have savings, uh, both in your operations and through things like stock based compensation, uh, stuff like that. So Tesla ultimately expects that to be a positive profitability move. Of course, otherwise wouldn't make a lot of sense to do it.
我们之前提到过的重组，未来只会对我们造成一次性的影响。我是说，可能在第三季度还会有一些相关的事情，但在未来，大部分事情应该都已经处理完毕了。然后，从那个时候开始，你应该会在运营方面和类似股票奖励之类的方面都能看到节省成本的效果。所以，特斯拉最终预期这是一个对盈利有积极影响的举措。不然的话，这样做就没有太多意义了。
Um, but in the quarter that happens is, it's not going to be the case. And then for the bottom line, again, we've talked plenty about this and the factors driving it, but just to get those in there for the sake of completeness, we had 46 cents non gap. Or sorry, let's make sure that's basic versus diluted. Let me just get the right number here. Uh, all right. 42 cents gap. We can talk the PE here as well. The period and 52 cents. Non gap. For cash flow of 1342. All right. We're through the number. Well, we're going to do ASP still almost through the numbers.
嗯，但在那个季度情况会有所不同。然后关于底线问题，我们已经讨论了很多次，以及影响它的因素，但为了完整性，我们还是再说一遍，我们有46美分的非GAAP。哦，不对，应该先区分一下基本摊薄后的数据，等我找到正确的数据。呃，好了，是每股收益42美分的GAAP数据，我们可以顺便讨论一下市盈率，以及每股52美分的非GAAP数据，现金流为1342。好了，我们通过这些数据。嗯，我们还要讨论ASP，还差一点点。
Um, but let's just see. I feel like I had another point on that, but maybe not. Oh yeah. PE. So I'll do it now so I don't forget later. Uh, you can see right now the last, well, so Q four last year. Oh, that's St. Louis consensus. I don't want that. Q four last year was actually $2.27 gap earnings per share, but that was driven by a one-time, um, tax benefit. So not really fair to include that in the PE PE, but it is something that will, if you're looking at Yahoo finance, Google finance, whatever you're looking at, they're going to include that.
嗯，但让我们看看。我感觉我还有一个相关的观点，但可能没有。哦，对了，是关于市盈率的。所以我现在就说，以免忘记。你可以看到，去年第四季度，哦，那是圣路易斯的一致预期，我不需要那个。实际情况是，去年第四季度的每股收益为2.27美元，但这是由一次性税收优惠驱动的。所以，将其纳入市盈率计算并不公平。但如果你在查看雅虎财经、谷歌财经或其他财经网站时，他们会将其包括在内。
So we're at $3.56, $3.56 earnings per share, including that over the last 12 months. Uh, if we're at two 41 or whatever we're at now divided by three 56, our price to earnings on any of these sites is going to show us 68 times right now. Uh, but what it really is, I mean, brace yourselves, because it's going to be quite a bit lower here.
所以，我们现在每股收益是$3.56，这是过去12个月的数字。如果我们当前在$2.41左右，除以$3.56，我们的市盈率在任何这些网站上都会显示68倍。但实际上，这个市盈率会低得多，大家要有心理准备。
Uh, the real PE should be $1.86 right now. If we're talking gap. Uh, so because again, you had that one-time tax benefit. So at already six, you're looking at more like 130 times earnings. If we're looking at the actual PE. So it's obviously a high number. Obviously accounts for a lot of future growth.
嗯，真正的市盈率目前应该是 $1.86。如果我们讨论的是差距的话。这是因为，你之前有一次性的税收优惠。所以已经是6的话，你实际看的市盈率大概是130倍。这显然是一个很高的数字，显然考虑了大量的未来增长。
Uh, I think the market, you know, giving credit to Tesla for the growth that they've had historically, they feel like that can come back again when Tesla gets to an X generation of products with artificial intelligence and some of the leverage that is possible there in terms of margins. Uh, there's certainly plenty of good reasons to believe that. But obviously, it is a high price turning share, uh, ratio right now. Important to keep that in mind, important to understand what it really is, not just look at the 68.
嗯，我觉得市场在认可特斯拉历史上的增长之后，认为当特斯拉推出下一代人工智能产品时，这种增长可能会再次出现，并且在利润率方面可能会有一些杠杆效应。当然，有很多充分的理由相信这一点。但是显然，目前特斯拉的股价很高，这是一个需要牢记、需要理解的重点，而不仅仅是看这个68的数字。
Uh, it really is close to 130. Um, no one really looks at non gap pees. I don't think as much. I mean, you definitely can. If you look at a non gap, it's just not what you're seeing on all these sites as much. Uh, but if you're looking at non gap price earnings, that would be $2.34. So 103 times on a non gap basis, but again, most of the time, people are talking on a non gap if they're talking about price earnings ratios. Um, all right. And then average selling prices. So this is definitely a curiosity. Uh, now that we've seen the gross margins fall, so the X credit gross margins fall on automotive. So let's calculate this. We're going to need a few numbers here. So auto revenue from leasing. Let me just grab that quick and that should calc for us. Automotive revenue from leasing was. Make sure I don't grab costs on accident. It should be 458. Cogs from leasing should be 245. And then the deliveries released or deliveries at least that should be somewhere in the 10,000 range. Let's find that again. 10, two, two, seven. Yeah. So you can see there we'll go back up here, but. $700 drop in ASP. So not, not anything super crazy, I guess, but then you also pair that with a small increase, about $100, you know, $80 per vehicle of cost increase. Um, this could be related to what we had talked about with actually lower production. Uh, in the second quarter versus the first quarter, uh, I don't have the production numbers as well. Memorize and we don't have them on the sheet here, but I'll just check that quickly.
呃，这确实接近130。嗯，实际上没有人真正关注非GAAP市盈率。我认为没有那么重要。我的意思是，你当然可以看非GAAP市盈率，只是所有这些网站上展示的并不多。呃，但如果你看非GAAP市盈率，那就会是2.34美元。所以，在非GAAP基础上是103倍市盈率，但再说一次，大多数时候，如果人们讨论市盈率，他们谈论的是非GAAP市盈率。嗯，好吧。然后是平均销售价格。这真的是个好奇的问题。呃，现在我们看到汽车业务的毛利率下降了。所以让我们来计算一下。我们需要一些数据。汽车租赁收入。让我快速查一下，应该很快就能计算出结果。汽车租赁收入是458。租赁的成本应该是245。然后租赁的交付量或交付车辆的数量应该在10,000左右。再找一下，10,227。对，你可以看到，我们回上面看看，ASP（平均销售价格）下降了700美元。所以，我觉得这不算特别疯狂，但你也要考虑到成本增加了大约100美元，具体来说，每辆车增加了大约80美元的成本。这可能与我们讨论的实际生产减少有关。在第二季度与第一季度相比，我没有记住生产数据，我们在这张表上也没有这些数据，但我会快速检查一下。
So in the first quarter production was 433,000 vehicles versus this quarter, obviously 411,000 as we had talked about when you have lower production, even if you've got higher deliveries, there's always a lot of different factors influencing the accounting and how it all flows through. Um, so, you know, the high deliveries is going to help gross margins. Lower production is going to hurt gross margin, whether that washed out and positive or negative, maybe Tesla's mentioned in the profitability section, but, um, you know, there are going to be those factors. So that is something that maybe contributed a little bit on the wrong sheet again. I just got to close this one. Uh, okay. So small increase in costing goods sold, um, still down year over year.
在第一季度，生产了 433,000 辆汽车，而这季度显然是 411,000 辆。正如我们所讨论的，当生产下降时，即使交付量增加，也会有许多不同的因素影响财务处理及其最终结果。所以，虽然高交付量有助于提升毛利率，但较低的生产量会对毛利率造成负面影响。至于最终结果是正还是负，也许特斯拉会在盈利部分提到，但确实存在这些因素。这可能稍微影响了一下预期结果。另外，成本增加了少许，但与去年同期相比仍是下降的。
And then average selling prices, again, down about $700, $800 or so. Uh, from last quarter and down 3,300, $3,200 from, uh, you want, or sorry, Q two last year. So I would have hoped that held up a little bit better, but basically you're talking, you know, $700 of profit per vehicle there that you had in the first quarter that you now don't have in the second quarter. Obviously the scale is, you know, still increasing and making these numbers better than the second quarter, the first quarter. Sorry if I keep saying the second quarter for Q one, but, um, you know, with the, with the increase in deliveries being so massive, 15% higher.
然后，平均售价再次下降了大约700到800美元。额，比上个季度下降了3,300到3,200美元。抱歉，我说错了，是去年第二季度。我原本希望它能维持得更好一些，但基本上，你现在少了每辆车700美元的利润，比起第一季度明显减少了。显然，销量在不断增加，使得这些数字比第一季度更好。对不起，如果我一直把第一季度说成第二季度。总体来说，交付量确实大幅增加了，增加了15%。
Uh, if you're just talking raw dollars, obviously that's still, uh, generating more money, uh, more bottom line profit for Tesla than it did in the first quarter, but obviously the first quarter and tougher quarter for Tesla relative to his torques. All right. I think we did it. Not not too bad. Again, nothing too crazy. Uh, this quarter, I think for me, probably one of the biggest takeaways would again be this automobile gross margin X credits. We've talked about it. I don't want to labor on it, but that is a pretty significant drop, uh, quarter recorder. Uh, hopefully that can be something that Tesla has a, you know, uh, a little bit more information for us on the call. And I think in past calls though, we, we, Tesla has noted that, uh, this cost of goods sold piece.
呃，如果你只谈论纯粹的美元数额，显然这仍然为特斯拉带来更多的收入，呃，更多的净利润，比第一季度多，但显然第一季度对特斯拉来说是更难的一个季度。好吧，我觉得我们做到了，不算太糟。再次说明，这个季度没有什么特别夸张的事情。对我来说，可能最重要的一个方面是汽车销售的毛利率，不包括信贷。我们已经讨论过这个问题，我不想重复，但这是一个季度之间的显著下降。希望特斯拉在接下来的电话会议中能给我们提供更多的信息。我认为在以往的电话会议中，特斯拉也提到过这个销售成本的部分。
Oh, and one thing I need to mention here that I didn't, but Tesla has noted that this cost of goods sold piece per vehicle. It's, it's not like there's huge unlocks here every quarter. Elon has talked about this, um, many, many times it's a sort of like battle of pennies. You're just trying to find a penny here, a penny there across 10,000 different parts on each vehicle to be able to lower these costs. And Tesla's been doing that for many years now. So when you have these things like a model three refresh, that's going to give you an opportunity to maybe do some more of those things. It's going to take some time for all those things to flow through to the actual financials. Um, so that's going to, you know, have a temporary increase as you're, as you're getting through that ramping up period, um, as we know so well from Tesla's history.
哦，还有一件事我之前没提到，但特斯拉已经指出，每辆车的商品成本（即制造成本）并不是每个季度都会有大幅降低的。埃隆·马斯克讨论过很多次，这就像是一分钱一分钱的积累。你要在一辆车的1万多个零件中，每个零件节省一点点成本，从而整体降低成本。特斯拉已经这样做了很多年了。所以当你看到像Model 3的改款时，这样的机会可能会让你做更多这样的成本优化，但这些节省的成本要反映在财务报表上需要一些时间。在这个提升产量的过程中，成本可能会暂时增加，这是我们从特斯拉历史中非常熟悉的现象。
Uh, but again, with model three and the model Y, we're, we're kind of where we're going to be, right? We're kind of already at the, maybe not the absolute peak, but we're not seeing any huge growth in these, these businesses going forward. We're probably not going to see any huge cost declines in these businesses going forward either absent changes in the underlying cost of the actual materials, uh, like, you know, battery costs and things like that. But. We're many years into development cycle. There's going to be times where there's something like a refresh where this changes a little bit, but otherwise we're getting close to the end of that. So as I've been saying for a while, I think we're kind of just in a waiting period. And so we kind of get to that next generation of products, whether that's coming from FSD or whether that's coming from new hardware, uh, in terms of vehicles, uh, or we're just kind of waiting around for energy to just become a bigger and bigger piece of it. Again, there are plenty of things to be excited about for the future. I'm not saying this in a way that's like trying to be down on the company or anything like that. It's important to recognize these things so that we understand what's happening, um, rather than just trying to pretend like, yeah, next quarter, we're going to see a $30,000 average cost for a vehicle. It's just not going to be the case. Uh, and Tesla has told us this much. So just important to listen to those things, recognize those things, understand what's actually happening with the business so that we can, you know, respond accordingly, um, from an investor perspective.
嗯，但再说一下，关于Model 3和Model Y的情况，我们基本上已经到了一个相对稳定的阶段。也许不是绝对的巅峰，但未来我们不会看到这些车型有巨大的增长。除非材料成本（比如电池成本）有重大变化，否则这些业务在成本上也不会有大的下降。我们已经进入了开发周期的许多年，有时候可能会有一些改变，比如产品的更新，但总体来说，我们接近这个周期的尾声。所以，正如我已经说了一段时间的，我认为我们现在处于一个等待期。无论是期待自动驾驶功能（FSD）的突破，还是新硬件方面的进展，或者是等待能源业务的逐渐壮大，都是这样。不过，未来还是有很多令人兴奋的事情。我并不是在贬低公司或类似的意思。认识到这些情况很重要，这样我们才能真正理解发生了什么，而不是假装下一季度我们就会看到平均成本降到3万美元。事实并非如此，特斯拉也已经告诉我们这一点。所以，倾听这些信息，理解实际的业务情况，对投资者来说才能做出相应的判断。
So for me, that just means holding my stock for the next, you know, however many years, but obviously everyone's got different time, a lot of time horizons, risk tolerance, all sorts of things. And again, just the battle of going through holding a stock, like one of the reasons Tesla was Tesla daily is because you are making a decision every day, whether you're doing nothing, that's still a decision. Um, holding a stock is still a decision. So you got to make that decision every single day. And to do that, it's important to understand the, you know, the facts of what's going on with the business. So hopefully that's helpful. Um, and again, plenty of things to be excited about in the future that aren't going to show on a spreadsheet like this. So, um, yeah. The other thing I wanted to mention on both average selling price, which is a negative here and, uh, the average cost to get sold, which is something that's positive in terms of how these numbers are coming through is a cyber truck as that becomes a bigger part of the mix because it is such a high cost. I mean, Tesla's Tesla said it there, right? They're still hoping for it to be profitable by the end of the year, which is, that's great. Hopefully it gets there.
对我来说，这意味着我可能会在未来若干年内持有我的股票，但显然，每个人都有不同的时间规划、风险承受能力和其他因素。再次强调，持有一只股票的过程本身就是一种考验。特斯拉这家公司之所以日常备受关注，是因为即便你每天什么都不做，这也是一种决定。持有股票本身就是一个每天都需要做出的选择。为了做出这个选择，了解企业当前的实际情况非常重要。希望这对你有所帮助。此外，未来还有很多令人期待的事情，这些东西可能不会在当前的财务报表上体现。
另外，我想提一下关于平均销售价格和销售成本的问题。平均销售价格在这里是一个负面的因素，而销售成本的平均值则是一个积极的信号。随着Cybertruck在销售组合中占据更大比重，因为其成本非常高，特斯拉表示，他们仍希望到年底能实现盈利，这是一个好消息。希望他们能达成这个目标。
Um, and that'll be nice when it does. But that means that basically the cost I get sold on a cyber truck right now are like $100,000, right? It's very, very high. Um, because that's what the average selling price is. So if you're not making any profit, then those would be equivalent. Uh, so right now is actually probably above $100,000 in terms of the average cost on a cyber truck. When you throw that into the mix, that's definitely going to be something that raises this, especially as cyber truck production grows, becomes a bigger portion of the total, which I assume it would be this quarter since production, they said tripled quarter of a quarter. So that's going to pull a cost to get sold up. You might have actually even seen cost to get sold to Klein. Maybe Tesla said this in the, in the letter, usually they're talking year over year there, but, um, you might have even actually seen cost to get sold, excluding cyber truck to climb a little bit quarter over quarter. But while that's a positive on the cost to get sold line in terms of how to interpret it, it's a negative on the average selling price line, because, uh, if you take out cyber truck, it should be also having that same lifting effect on average selling price here.
呃，当（这个情况）发生时，那会很好。但这意味着我现在买到的网络卡车成本大约是10万美元，对吧？非常非常高。嗯，因为那是平均售价。所以，如果你没有任何利润，那么这些（成本和售价）是相等的。呃，所以现在网络卡车的平均成本实际上可能超过了10万美元。当你把它考虑进去时，这肯定会提升成本，特别是随着网络卡车的生产增长，占总量的比例越来越大，我假设这个季度就会这样，因为他们说生产量季度环比增长了三倍。所以这会把售出的成本拉高。你可能实际上已经看到售出的成本有所下降了。也许特斯拉在信中提到了这个，通常他们会讨论年度同比数据，但呃，你可能已经看到售出的成本（如果不包括网络卡车）实际上是环比略有下降的。但是虽然这是售出成本方面的一个积极信号，但在解读平均售价时却是一个负面信号，因为如果你剔除网络卡车，它也应该对平均售价产生同样的提升效果。
Because again, $110,000 ticket or whatever it is at, um, that's going to raise that ASP as it becomes a bigger part of the mix. It's going to have an even stronger effect. So if you take cyber truck out, if you exclude cyber truck, you're probably seeing a bigger than $800 drop here, uh, 750 or whatever in, in the average selling price on the other vehicles, uh, this quarter, which is again, something that would be disappointing in terms of just the sort of the strength of, or the health of that, that line of business. So we'll see next quarter, hopefully, you know, hopefully these impacts keep growing, um, which, you know, as cyber truck grows until it's profitable and until it's profitable as the, as the other vehicles are, uh, that will lower gross margins. But hopefully it's something that can help average selling prices stay a little bit higher. And then as Tesla gets the cost down, hopefully, um, you know, they get to this 15% 20% gross margins, uh, for the, for the cyber truck and it can be something that is margin-acretive, uh, both from a percentage perspective and from a, a dollar's perspective, obviously the, the ladder there is a lower bar.
因为，无论是11万美元的价格，还是其他什么价格，这都会随着它在产品组合中占据更大份额而提升平均销售价格（ASP）。这将产生更强的效果。所以，如果你将Cybertruck排除在外，在本季度，其他车辆的平均销售价格可能会下降超过800美元，可能是750美元左右。这会让人对该业务线的健康状况感到失望。所以我们期待下个季度，希望这些影响可以继续增长。直到Cybertruck实现盈利，并且与其他车辆一样盈利，这将降低总体毛利率。但希望它能够帮助平均销售价格保持在较高水平。而且随着特斯拉降低成本，希望他们可以实现Cybertruck的毛利率达到15%到20%左右。这样不仅从百分比角度看，还是从美元金额看，都可以提高毛利率，后者的门槛会更低些。
All right. Uh, we're almost four o'clock central here. So we've got about 30 minutes till the earnings call. Again, I'll be doing a live stream for that. The link for that is in the description. I think it'll take you right there after this, but hope to see everybody on that. Um, I'm going to go back and look, I did see some super chats. So I really appreciate those. Um, and just want to make sure that any questions here, you know, we'll have more time after earnings to talk as well, but anything that's maybe particularly relevant, uh, at the moment, try to take a look at here. Um, so I'll show somebody here. Carlton, thank you. I appreciate that. Uh, Michael appreciate it. Truth to a T. Appreciate that. I miss doing it too. Like I said, it was, it was, I've said it all. You guys can go watch the video, but, uh, it is nice to be back.
好的。呃，现在已经快到中部时间四点了。所以我们还有大约30分钟就要开始盈利电话会议了。我会对这次电话会议进行直播，直播链接在描述中，点击后应该会直接跳转到直播页面，希望大家都能来参与。
我先回头看看，我刚刚看到了一些超级留言，实在太感谢大家了。在盈利电话会议后，我们也会有更多时间讨论，但现在如果有特别相关的问题，可以先提出来看看。
那么，我要感谢这里的一些人。Carlton，非常感谢你。Michael，也谢谢你。还有 Truth to a T，也非常感谢你。我也非常想念做这些事情。就像我之前说的，你们可以去看那个视频，但很高兴能够回来。
Uh, Warbird, thank you for that. Appreciate it. Um, Thanks for everything. Elon was correct with Model Y prediction, becoming most popular thoughts on his prediction regarding energy and semi, as big as he says. Will those be the next leg up? Um, yeah, I mean, I'm very, very excited about both those business lines. Um, I'm not sure what specific comments you're talking about in terms of as big as Elon said, I know he's always said the energy business would probably grow faster than the auto business. Uh, Tesla said that again in the shareholder letter. It's not hard when the auto business isn't really growing right now, obviously. Uh, but still nice to see, even if I was growing it 50% or whatever, uh, energy would still be well outpacing it right now. Uh, just really dominant growth in, in that business. And hopefully that continues for quite a while here with, uh, laythrop ramping up, uh, and with gig effect or mega factory Shanghai, uh, starting in Q one next year.
呃，Warbird，谢谢你。很感激。嗯，谢谢你的一切。Elon 对于 Model Y 成为最受欢迎车型的预测是正确的，那他关于能源和半挂卡车的预测呢？这些会成为下一个增长点吗？嗯，是的，我对这两条业务线都非常兴奋。呃，我不太确定你具体指的是 Elon 的哪些评论，但我知道他一直说能源业务的增长速度可能会超过汽车业务。特斯拉在股东信中也再次提到这一点。鉴于汽车业务目前确实没有很快增长，这并不难理解。不过，即使汽车业务以每年 50% 的速度增长，能源业务的增长速度现在仍然会超过它。这个业务的增长真的是非常强劲。希望这种情况在莱斯罗普（Lathrop）工厂扩产和明年第一季度上海超级工厂（Mega Factory Shanghai）投产后，能继续持续一段时间。
That's hopefully like we saw with gigashang high, that's something that can really, really come online fast and start contributing. We're already seeing huge numbers and energy, three billion dollars in revenue this quarter. Uh, I mean, that's 12 billion annualized, not fair to annualize it because of the volatility, but if you did that, you know, that's, that's a huge business. We wouldn't have to go back that far. Well, we'd have to go back a little bit, but there were plenty, plenty of time in Tesla's history where the auto business wasn't a 12 billion dollar business. Uh, and probably at that time, I don't know if it would be growing as fast as energy is growing now.
希望像我们在Gigashang高点看到的那样，这将是一个能够非常快速上线并开始做出贡献的项目。我们已经看到了巨大的数据和能源，本季度的收入达到了30亿美元。嗯，我的意思是，如果按年化计算，那就是120亿美元。尽管因为波动性不应该这样年化计算，但即便如此，你知道，这是一个庞大的业务。我们不需要追溯太久，哦，可能需要稍微久一点，但在特斯拉的历史中，有许多时候汽车业务还不像现在那样成为一个120亿美元的业务。而且，或许在那个时候，汽车业务的增长速度还不如现在的能源业务增长速度快。
So this is a real significant business, uh, and profitable. 25% gross profit when you get to leverage the fixed costs of the automotive business. It's a really, really, really healthy business within Tesla right now. So, uh, very excited about energy. Seems like we've got a long way to go on it. And yeah, it's, it's a great business positive contribution to the world for so many different reasons. Very excited about energy. Semi, all those same things, you know, all those exact same comments other than we're, you know, very, very early on in, in terms of the product life cycle right now. Uh, but every product is at that stage at some point.
这是一项非常重要且盈利的业务。利用汽车业务的固定成本，可以达到25%的毛利润。目前，这确实是特斯拉内部一个非常健康的业务。所以，对能源业务非常感兴趣。看起来我们在这方面还有很长的路要走。而且这是一个对世界有很多积极贡献的优秀业务。对能源业务非常期待。至于半挂卡车业务，这些相同的评论同样适用，只不过我们现在还处于产品生命周期的非常早期阶段。但每个产品在某个阶段都会经历这一过程。
And I think what we've seen with the early stage of the semi, there's no reason to believe that this isn't something that can be, uh, fundamentally game changing product. It's not something that you need to rely on, like consumer sentiment, because it's just a matter of, of reducing costs, right? If this product helps logistics supply companies, whatever reduce costs, they're going to buy it. Why would they not? That's just free money. Most people like free money regardless of, you know, other concerns. So, to an extent, but it's generally a positive thing. So, uh, very excited about the semi. Obviously it's going to take some time, but, um, yeah, very excited.
我认为，从我们目前在半卡车初期阶段所看到的情况来看，没有理由认为这不会是一款具有革命性意义的产品。这并不是一种需要依赖消费者情绪的产品，因为它只是一个降低成本的问题。如果这款产品能够帮助物流供应公司降低成本，他们肯定会购买它，为什么不呢？这是免费的钱嘛。大多数人都喜欢免费的钱，不论其他方面的顾虑。所以，总的来说，这是非常积极的。因此，我对半卡车非常期待。显然，这个过程需要一些时间，但我依然非常兴奋。
John, thank you. It was always appreciate that. Uh, Fujio, thank you. Rex, thank you. Good to see you on here. Um, Tesla need to advertise to build demand and preserve ASP. I would like to see more of it. I've shared my thoughts on that plenty. It's, you know, seems like we're still in the testing phase. They even call out in the shareholder letter. They're like, as these, uh, beliefs about charging and whatever diminish, it's like, well, let's try to accelerate that a little bit.
约翰，谢谢你。我一直非常感激。呃，藤尾，谢谢你。雷克斯，谢谢你。很高兴在这里看到你。嗯，特斯拉需要做广告来提高需求并维持平均售价。我希望能看到更多这方面的动作。我已经多次分享过我的想法了，似乎我们仍在测试阶段。他们甚至在股东信中提到，随着关于充电等方面的顾虑减弱，他们会说：“好吧，让我们试着加速这一过程。”
Um, If labor is part of COGs and affects margins, could a three month severance package for the greater than 10% of workforce that was laid off drag down the margins? Yes. So that's where I just don't know accounting wise how Tesla is sort of doing all of it, right? Um, I assume that most of the costs are, are falling into that one time item line. Uh, but there are going to be costs associated with, with things that just get allocated somewhere else, right? Uh, so it's, it's really difficult to know.
嗯，劳动力成本是商品成本的一部分，会影响利润率。如果超过10%的员工被裁员，三个月的遣散费会拖低利润率吗？是的。所以，我不太清楚特斯拉在会计处理上是怎么操作的。嗯，我假设大部分成本会计入一次性项目，但也会有一些成本分配到其他地方。所以，很难确切了解。
The essence of the question is like, are the automotive gross margin, X credit gross margin? Sorry. Are the automotive gross margins, X credits being reduced because of these layoffs, even though we do also have that impact on the restructuring another line? Uh, and I think there's a reasonable possibility that that is something that is affecting it. Maybe again, Tesla will share a little bit more on that in the call. They could say it's, you know, $100 million impact or something like that. Who knows? Without being in Tesla, I don't, I don't know that anyone would have any way to figure that out.
这个问题的本质是这样的：汽车的毛利率，去除信用部分的毛利率，是不是因为这些裁员而减少了？虽然我们也在重组的另一条线上受到了影响。我认为这很有可能是一个正在影响毛利率的因素。也许特斯拉会在电话会议中分享更多信息，他们可能会说这有一亿美元的影响，谁知道呢？不在特斯拉内部，我不认为任何人有办法弄清楚这个问题。
Uh, and thank you, John. Appreciate that. All right, guys, I'm going to wrap it up here. We've got about 30 minutes to the earnings call. So I got to just do a little bit of less, last minute setup there. Uh, and then we will, I'll see you over there again, the link for that is down in the description, but, uh, thanks for spending some time here and, uh, good, uh, good to be back for, for a bit here. All right. Thank you.
呃，约翰，谢谢你。我很感激。好了，各位，我就到这里结束了。离财报电话会还有大约30分钟，我需要做一些最后的准备工作。链接在描述栏里，我会在那里再见到你们。谢谢你们花时间在这里，很高兴能短暂地回来。好了，谢谢大家。