This New Elon Musk Interview By Jordan Peterson Is Making Internet Mad - YouTube
发布时间 2024-07-23 00:16:40 来源
中英文字稿 ![](/static/new-window.png)
So the first thing I'd like to say is that it's ridiculously exciting to be here. You're most welcome to be here. This is quite the amazing place and I've been preparing to talk to you for a long time. So I'm really looking forward to it. You said something that caught me right away when we were discussing various issues just before we started. You said you were up till four in the morning. Yeah, actually a little more like five in the morning. But we got to the the XAI data center or super computer center training from beginning installation to start of training in 19 days, which is the fastest that anyone has ever gotten a super computer to train. And is that in that new building off to the side? That's in Memphis actually. It's in Memphis. So that's where you were. Memphis, the capital of ancient Egypt. Right, right, right, right. Yeah, you're bringing what? Perhaps that's where our new god will come from. Yeah, no kidding. No kidding. Yeah, I wish that was funny. Yeah, okay.
所以,我首先想说的是,来到这里真是令人激动。非常欢迎你们来到这里。这个地方真的很棒,我已经为今天的演讲准备了很久。所以我非常期待与大家交流。在我们开始之前讨论各种问题时,你说了一件马上引起我注意的事。你说你熬夜到凌晨四点。对,其实更像是到凌晨五点。但是我们从超级计算机中心的安装调试到开始训练用了19天,这是有人成功地使超级计算机开始训练的最快记录。是那个在边上的新建筑里吗?不,其实是在孟菲斯,孟菲斯。所以你当时在那里。孟菲斯,古埃及的首都。对,对,对,对。对,你在带来什么?也许我们的新神将从那里诞生。没开玩笑。没开玩笑。对,希望这只是个笑话。好的。
So I want to talk to you about a line. Which is funny. Yeah, great. Well, look, I mean, there are a few things we're aiming for with with Grock, the XAI. You know, but it's the name of the the AI from XAI is called Grock. Yeah. If you're familiar, I want to ask you about that too. Well, Grock just means to deeply understand something. Yeah, but it's got that weird background, that stranger in a strange land, right? Robert Heinlein, that was a great work of mine. How old are you? Fifty three. Yeah, okay. So we're roughly from the same era. I read Heinlein a lot when I was a kid. The first two thirds of stranger in a strange land are great. It gets kind of weird in the final third. Yeah. So why do you pick Grock? Well, I think because of the meaning of the word, to Grock something is to understand it at a very deep level. Yeah. To really fundamentally understand something. And that's what we're aiming for with our AI. The state of goal of XAI is to understand the universe. Yeah.
所以,我想跟你谈谈一个话题。挺有趣的。是啊,很棒。那么,听我说,我们在Grock这款XAI上有一些目标。对了,这款AI的名字就叫Grock。如果你熟悉,我还想问问你关于这个的事情。Grock的意思是深刻理解某件事。对,它有一种奇特的背景,《异乡异客》的梗,对吧?罗伯特·海因莱因,那是他的杰出作品之一。你多大了?五十三岁。好吧,所以我们大概是同一年代的人。我小时候经常读海因莱因的书。《异乡异客》的前两部分很棒,最后一部分有点奇怪。是的。那么你为什么选择Grock这个名字?我觉得是因为这个词的含义,Grock某物就是对它有非常深刻的理解。对,真正从根本上理解某件事。这也是我们对AI的目标。XAI的目标是理解宇宙。对。
So to really just understand the nature of the universe, and even what questions to ask about the universe. Yeah. So that's like all I think it's a good goal. So let me ask you some specific questions about that. So I played a lot around a lot with large language models. I have some people on my team who've built one. Actually, we built one out of my writing that I've been using to help me with my new book. So if I come across biblical passages that I can't understand, I can use that system to give me a first pass approximation. And it works quite nicely. Yeah. I've used Grock quite a lot too and chat GPT. And I use them as research assistants. And their chat GPT lies a lot. So you have to keep an eye on it. Well, so I've been thinking about this alignment problem. And so I got an idea to run by you. And tell me what you think about this.
所以,为了真正理解宇宙的本质,甚至了解该问什么问题。我认为这是一个很好的目标。那么,让我问你一些具体的问题吧。我一直在大量使用大型语言模型。我的团队中有些人也在开发这种模型。实际上,我们基于我的写作构建了一个模型,我一直在用它来帮助完成我的新书。所以如果我遇到一些难以理解的圣经段落,我可以使用这个系统来给我一个初步的解释,而且效果还不错。我也经常用 Grock 和 ChatGPT,当做我的研究助手。不过,ChatGPT 有时会编造信息,所以你得留意一下。关于这个模型的校准问题,我有一个想法想和你探讨一下,听听你怎么看。
Well, so there's a golden thread of conversation that constitutes the basis for humanities education, let's say that's run across centuries. And in principle, that concentrates on ideas that have been winnowed. Probably through a quasi-evolutionary process across large spans of time. Yeah. To get documents out of that, like the King James Bible, for example. Sure. And they're zeroing in on core conceptual structures that we don't even necessarily explicitly understand. Yeah. It seems to me that when we take young people and we give them a genuine humanities education, we solve the alignment problem for them. Now, so the question- Or make it worse. Well, you do that if it's proper, if it's proper Gandistic, you can make it much worse. What's the often is these days? Yeah. That's pretty much the- That's exactly what happens. And inevitably, when that unbroken tradition is not transmitted. And so this strikes to something that's very essential, which is, well, what's the difference, let's say, or is there a difference between the Western canon, let's say, in the latest woke nonsense. Now, I've used Grok a lot, and it's not as woke as child GPT, but it's still woke. Like it still deviates in the- Sure.
好吧,可以说,有一条贯穿几个世纪的黄金对话线索,构成了人文学科教育的基础。这条线索在很长一段时间内通过某种准进化的过程筛选出了重要的思想。比如《钦定版圣经》这样的文献,就是这样产生的。它们聚焦于一些核心的概念结构,这些结构我们甚至不一定能明确理解。我认为,当我们为年轻人提供真正的人文学教育时,我们实际上在解决他们的价值观校准问题。当然,如果这种教育是被操控的、带有偏见的,它可能会适得其反,而如今很多时候确实是这样。这种情况出现的原因之一是,未能传承那种连贯的传统。这引出了一个非常重要的问题,即所谓的西方经典和最新的“觉醒”思潮之间有什么区别,或者是否有区别。我常用Grok(编译器),它不像child GPT(另一种编译器)那么“觉醒”,但它仍然存在一些偏差。的确如此。
So how are you- Can you address that by- It's just a language model at the moment, let's say, if it also understood images, if it also understood behavior- It actually does outside images at this point. Okay, and is the language model and the image understanding, are they stacked on top of each other? Because I think that's partly how we triangulate psychologically. Right, we have an imagination, and we have a verbal module, but those things have to work in sync, and we also have- It certainly is intended to work in sync. It is intended to be what's called a multi-modal model, which means understanding text, images, and video, and audio. Okay, if it understands video, will it start to understand behavior? Yeah.
那么,你能解决这个问题吗?目前它只是一个语言模型,假设它也能理解图像和行为——事实上,它已经能理解图像了。好吧,那语言模型和图像理解是叠加在一起的吗?因为我认为这在心理上是我们进行三角定位的方法的一部分。对,我们有想象力,还有一个语言模块,但这些东西必须同步工作,我们还有——它确实是为了同步工作而设计的。这被称为多模态模型,意思是理解文字、图像、视频和音频。好的,如果它能理解视频,它会开始理解行为吗?是的。
All this data that you've collected with your car, so I've been wondering, I know Tesla's a car company, but when I look at what you do- AI company. Yeah, well, exactly. Yeah, well, maybe more. Like, those aren't cars, those are autonomous robots. Yeah, they're robots on four wheels. Autonomous robots on four wheels, yeah. They just look like a car. Right. They're disguised as a car in a sense. This guy's a car, yeah. Yeah, yeah, okay, okay. So, what advantage do you have in training, Grock, given that you have all this real-world data that you've gathered from your automobiles? We haven't yet applied real-world video from Tesla to Grock yet. So, I do want to emphasize, XAI is a fairly new company, it's just a little over a year old. So, we really need- we have a lot of catching up to do to companies, relative to companies that have been around for five or 10 or 20 years. We're catching up fast, I think with the last of improvement of XAI is fast than any other company out there. We just completed the- we were just able to install and bring online massive new training centers that we've, like, as mentioned, we're building in Memphis. And it's from getting hardware installation to- it began training, it was only 19 days. And that's the fastest by far, that anyone's been able to do that. So, we're moving quickly, but we're still catching up. And so, if you use- Catching up to who? Well, catching up to, say, Gemini, Chashibt, Claude, and the others. So- And how do you feel that Grok- We're catching up fast. How do you feel that Grok performed, say, in relationship to Chashibt now? Well, so the Grok version that's been released, it's still based on Grok 1 version 1 training. Yeah. We've made several improvements, so it's sort of called Grok 1.5. But the foundation model of Grok is still an order of magnitude weaker than Chashibt. Oh, yes. So it's doing quite well, given that order of magnitude difference. And this new system, how powerful is it? Compared, let's say, to Chashibt. Well, actually, so Grok 2 actually finished training. Now, Grok 2 was training with, called roughly 15,000 GPUs, and they're H100. So Grok 2 finished training about a month ago. We're doing what's called fine-tuning, fixing bugs, and whatnot. So we'll release Grok 2, which should be on par with, or close to, a GPT-4. And that's, hopefully, we release that next month.
你收集了很多汽车数据,所以我一直在思考,虽然我知道特斯拉是一家汽车公司,但当我看你们公司的所作所为时,更像一家AI公司。是的,没错。也许不止如此。就像,这些不是普通的汽车,它们是自动驾驶的机器人。对,四个轮子的机器人。自动驾驶的四轮机器人,它们只是看起来像汽车。对,在某种意义上,它们是伪装成汽车的机器人。是的,是的,好的,好的。那么,鉴于你们拥有从汽车收集的所有真实数据,在训练Grok时有什么优势呢?我们还没有把特斯拉的真实视频应用到Grok上。不过我想强调一下,XAI是一家相对较新的公司,只有一年多的历史。所以我们相对于那些已经存在了五年、十年或二十年的公司,还有很多工作要赶。我们正在快速赶上,我认为XAI的快速进步速度超过了任何其他公司。我们刚刚完成并上线了在孟菲斯建设的大规模新训练中心。从安装硬件到开始训练只用了19天,这是迄今为止最快的。所以我们在快速前进,但仍在赶超中。那么,你们要追赶谁呢?我们要追赶,比如说,Gemini、ChatGPT、Claude和其他公司。那么你觉得Grok与ChatGPT相比,现在表现如何呢?目前发布的Grok版本仍基于Grok 1版本1训练。我们做了一些改进,叫Grok 1.5。但是Grok的基础模型还比ChatGPT弱了一个数量级。所以在考虑到这个数量级差异的情况下,它表现得相当不错。那么这个新系统有多强大?与ChatGPT相比呢?实际上,Grok 2已经完成了训练。Grok 2使用大约15000个H100 GPU进行训练。Grok 2在大约一个月前完成了训练,现在我们正在进行微调、修复漏洞等工作。我们希望能够在下个月发布Grok 2,它应该能与或接近GPT-4的水准。
Then what we're doing in the Memphis Data Center is we're actually training Grok 3. So that'll probably finish training in about three or four months, and then there'll be some fine-tuning and bug fixing, whatnot. And we're hoping to release Grok 3 by December. And Grok 3 should be the most powerful AI in the world at that point. So my sense with Chashibt, I've worked with lots of undergraduates and graduate students. So my sense with Chashibt is, if you can corner it into behaving properly, that you kind of have something approximating a team of, I would say, master's degree level intelligence, and something like that, what do you envision for this new, well, let's say, the new Grok 3? And then you talked about delving deeper into the structure of the universe, let's say, to answer fundamental questions like, and you are remarkably forward-looking persons. So what the hell do you think you're building with these AI systems?
那么,我们在孟菲斯数据中心正在做的事情是实际在训练Grok 3。这大概会在三到四个月内完成训练,然后会进行一些微调和错误修复等工作。我们希望在十二月前发布Grok 3。到那时,Grok 3应该是世界上最强大的人工智能。
关于Chashibt,我的感觉是,我和很多本科生和研究生一起工作过。所以我觉得,如果你能让它按正常方式运作的话,你就相当于有了一支大约具有硕士学位水平智力的团队之类的东西。那么,你对这个新的Grok 3有什么样的设想呢?
此外,你提到了深入探索宇宙结构,回答一些基本问题。你们是非常有前瞻性的人。那么,你觉得你们用这些AI系统到底在创造什么呢?
Like, what is this? Well, I think really what all the AI companies are aiming to build is digital super intelligence. So, you know, intelligence that's far smarter than any human. And then ultimately, an intelligence that is far smarter than all humans combined. Now, one can say, like, is this a wise thing to do? Isn't this dangerous? Well, unfortunately, whether we think bad or not, it is being done. So, really, you know, from my standpoint, from the AI team standpoint, we have the choice of being a spectator or a participant. That's life, man. Yeah, be a spectator or a participant. And I think if we're a participant, we've got a better chance, hopefully, of steering AI in the direction that is beneficial to humanity. So why do you trust yourself on that front? Just out of... I mean, that's an important question, right? I don't trust myself entirely. Good? Well, that's... Yes, fair enough, okay. I would. You're in an ethical conundrum, right? Yes, there's an ethical conundrum. Right, because you said, well, this is happening. Now, the excuse that something is happening is not a rationale for participating in it, but then your next take is, well, you know, we have the chance to do this properly, let's say, as opposed to...
这是什么?我认为,其实所有的AI公司都在努力构建的是一种数字超级智能。就是说,智能水平远远超过任何人类的智能。最终,这种智能甚至超过所有人类的智能总和。有人可能会问,这样做是明智的吗?这不是很危险吗?不幸的是,无论我们怎么看,它都在进行中。所以,从我的角度,从AI团队的角度来说,我们可以选择做旁观者或参与者。生活就是这样,要么做旁观者,要么做参与者。而我认为,如果我们成为参与者,我们或许有更好的机会把AI引导到对人类有益的方向。所以为什么你在这方面信任自己?就是... 这是个重要的问题,对吧?我不完全信任自己。这样好吗?嗯,这倒是,可以理解。你处于一个伦理困境中,对吧?是的,这是一个伦理困境。因为你说,这在发生。现在,用某事发生了作为参与其中的理由并不合理,但是你的下一步是,我们有机会正确地做这件事,比如说,与其...
Maybe better. Okay. Just pull it. If... I mean, I think we're... The... From moral standpoint, we really just need to think that maybe we've got a chance of it being better, to some degree, than what others are doing. And we... You know, we'll strive to avoid some of the pitfalls or directions that the others are going in, because the others, from what I've seen, do not strive for truth. Why do they strive for...
也许会更好。好的。就做吧。如果...我的意思是,我觉得我们...从道德角度来看,我们真的需要考虑,也许我们有机会比其他人做得更好一些。而且我们...你知道的,我们会努力避免一些其他人走过的陷阱或方向,因为据我所见,其他人并不追求真理。他们为什么要追求...
They strive for... Well, they strive to give an answer, but they are, I think, trained to be politically correct. And the work mind virus is woven in throughout them. Yeah. I'm sure you've seen that. Yeah. Yeah. Definitely. Definitely. Definitely. You know, my students used to ask me when I... Because I've been teaching what I've been teaching for about 40 years, and one of the questions they used to ask me is how I knew that what I was teaching wasn't just another ideology, right? Because the postmodern take is, well, all it is is a plethora of power games, and so there's no rank ordering approaches to the truth in terms of their ethical suitability, but that's not the game that you're playing. And... Right.
他们努力做到……怎么说呢,他们努力给出一个答案,但我觉得他们被训练得非常政治正确。工作中的“心灵病毒”在他们身上也很明显。我相信你也注意到了,对吧?对,绝对的。从前我的学生常问我,毕竟我教的这些东西已经教了大约40年了,其中一个问题就是我怎么知道我教的这些不是另一种意识形态。因为后现代主义的观点是,这一切只是各种权力游戏,因此在伦理适用性方面没有确立任何真理的秩序,但你玩的不是这个游戏。对。
And obviously we're not agreeing with that plus, but it's sort of moral relativism. What's convinced you that that's not a useful way of approaching things? Well, I think you can look at the given belief system and critique it as being likely to enhance or decrease enlightenment. Will any given belief system improve our understanding of the universe? Will we learn more things? Will we achieve a deeper understanding of physics? Right. So that's grounded at least in part in a scientific framework from the sounds of it. Well, just... I mean... I think there are facts about the world. Yes, right. There are things that are, just say, let's say extremely likely to be true versus less likely to be true. I think if one thinks in terms of probabilities about any given sort of axiomatic statement, then that's why we think about it. Now, some things are 99.99% to be true, you can run experiments, you can confirm them. And others have a low probability of truth, 1% likely to be true, or just using extremes here. But any given statement should be thought of as having...
显然,我们并不赞同那种观点,但这有点像道德相对主义。是什么让你相信这种方式没有用呢?嗯,我觉得你可以看看一个特定的信仰体系,并批评它是可能增加还是减少启蒙。任何特定的信仰体系是否会改善我们对宇宙的理解?我们会学到更多东西吗?我们会对物理有更深的理解吗?对,这至少部分基于一个科学框架。从这个角度来看,我认为世界上有实际的事实。对,有一些事情,我们可以说,它们极有可能是真实的,或者不太可能是真的。如果我们从概率的角度来看待任何给定的公理性陈述,这就是我们的思考方式。有些事情有99.99%的概率是真实的,你可以进行实验并证实它们。还有一些事情的真实性概率很低,比如只有1%的可能性。我们这里只是用极端的例子,但任何给定的陈述都应该被视为有...
Unless it's a totalg, it should be thought of as having a probability of being true or untrue. Or a probability of being relevant to an argument or not relevant to an argument. We're just talking about the basics of cogency here. Yeah. Yeah. Well, okay. So let me put a twist on that too. So one of the things that really struck me about your public pronouncements in recent years was your insistence that we're in a natal crisis and that that's actually a problem. Well, that's actually true. Well, it depends on whether you think that the planet would be better off if it was depopulated. I don't... That's... the whole airlicks line. Yeah. Paul Ehrlich is a genocidal maniac as far as I'm concerned. I think he's a terrible human being. Yes, and he's never admitted that he was wrong and he was unbelievably wrong. He made a famous bet. You know the bet. I hate Paul Ehrlich. I'll just be clear about that. I think he's terrible and his books have done great damage to humanity. So what... Okay. Fine. I talked to a philosopher a while back who is an antinatalist trying to get my finger on that. There was a recent research article published on this too. Antinatalists are much more likely to show dark tetra traits, macular, valium, psychopathic, narcissistic, and sadistic because those first three weren't enough. Right? And so those things are tightly aligned especially the best predictor with psychopathy for being an antinatalist. Sure. Right. Right. Well, and the psychopaths are very, very, very self-centered. Right? It's they're like overgrown two-year-olds, overgrown aggressive two-year-olds. So that's not good.
除非它是完全错误的,否则应该认为它有可能是真的或不是真的,或者在一个论点中有可能是相关的或不相关的。我们这里只是在讨论基础的说服力问题。是的,是的。好吧,所以让我再加一个扭曲的理解。近年来你在公开声明中一直强调我们正处于一个人口出生率危机之中,而且这确实是一个问题。嗯,这是真的。这取决于你是否认为地球在人口减少的情况下会更好。我不……这整套说辞都是Paul Ehrlich的观点。我认为Paul Ehrlich是个种族灭绝的疯子。我认为他是个糟糕的人。是的,他从不承认自己错了,而实际上他错得离谱。他还打过一个著名的赌注。你知道那个赌注。我讨厌Paul Ehrlich。我必须明确这一点。我认为他很糟糕,他的书对人类造成了巨大伤害。那么,好吧。我前阵子和一个反出生主义的哲学家谈过,试图了解他们的观点。最近还有一篇研究文章发表了,说反出生主义者更有可能表现出黑暗四元特征:马基雅维利主义、心理变态、纳西斯主义和虐待倾向,因为前三个还不够。对吧?所以这些特征尤其是心理变态是最好的预测因素,这与反出生主义密切相关。对,是的,是的。而心理变态者非常非常自我中心,对吧?他们就像长大了的两岁小孩,侵略性很强的两岁小孩。所以,这不是件好事。
How did you start to understand that the one of the fundamental ethical problems is different than a scientific problem. One of the fundamental ethical problems that's plaguing the West is this catastrophically low birth rate. Okay. And you know, when you start making public problems... I'm serving the numbers. I mean, I've noticed this 20 plus years ago that the trend in birth rates for really all countries past certain level of economic development was trending to well below replacement, if not already below replacement. If you extrapolate the curve, which one always has to be cautious about extrapolating any demographic curve? But if you, I just, so I always preface by saying if these trends continue, most countries will dwindle into insignificance. They might completely die out. So I've been thinking about that in relationship to sacred images. Okay. Okay. Well, the sacred image of masculinity in the West is a crucifixion, but a man who's crucified, but sacred image of a woman isn't a woman. The sacred image of a woman is a woman and an infant. Right. It's a dyad and not a monad. Sure. Right. Right. Right. And in the Christian view, those two images, they vie for supremacy. Right. I mean, obviously Christ is the superordinate image, but Mary is the mother of God is.
你是如何开始理解到一个基本的伦理问题与一个科学问题是不同的?在困扰西方社会的基本伦理问题之一是极低的出生率。好吧,你知道,当你开始公开问题时……我是看着数字的。我注意到这一趋势已经有20多年,那就是,几乎所有达到某一经济发展水平的国家的出生率都在下降至低于更替水平,甚至已经低于更替水平了。如果你把这个曲线延展下去(尽管对任何人口统计的曲线进行延展都需要谨慎),但如果这些趋势继续下去,大多数国家将会逐渐变得无关紧要,甚至可能完全灭绝。因此,我在思考这个问题与神圣图像的关系。好的。在西方,男性的神圣形象是被钉在十字架上的男人,而女性的神圣形象不是单独的女性,而是女性与婴儿的结合体。对,是一个二元关系,而不是一个单元体。对。而在基督教观点中,这两种形象是争夺至高地位的。显然,基督是最高形象,但圣母玛利亚作为上帝之母也是如此。
Sure. What would be the female equivalent? And so one of the things I've been playing with at an axiomatic level is the notion that unless the feminine is conceptualized as the combination of female and infant, then the culture has lost its attachment to the traditional sacred images and is probably on its way out. Yeah. I think there is, there's an argument that when a culture loses its religion that it starts to become anti-natalist and decline in numbers and potentially disappear. So I've got a hypothesis about that. You tell me what you think about this. So I've been working this out in my next book, which is coming out in November. So it's an analysis of biblical stories. And in a way, it's an attempt to solve the alignment problem. Okay. So imagine this, imagine that there's a unity of moral purpose that is conceptualized in the traditional writings as what should be put in the highest place. So it's God in the final analysis. It's ineffable, but it is a fundamental unification of monotheism. Okay. Now, here's a hypothesis. When that collapses, two things arise to replace it. Okay. One is a striving for power and the other is the untrammled, what would you call it? The untrammled dominion of hedonism and especially on the sexual gratification side. So it's like, if there's no ultimate unity that's future and community-oriented, that's predicated on sacrifice, you get a dissolution immediately into the next two contenders for domination.
当然。那女性的等价物是什么呢?于是,我一直在一个公理化的层面上玩味这一概念:如果不把女性视为女性和婴儿的结合,那么这个文化就失去了对传统神圣形象的依附,可能正在走向衰落。是的,我认为有一种观点认为,当一个文化失去其宗教时,它会变得反生育,并在人口数量上开始下降,甚至可能消失。所以,我有一个关于这个的假设。你告诉我你怎么看这个想法。我一直在我接下来的书中探讨这个问题,这本书将在11月出版。这书是对圣经故事的分析,从某种意义上说,是试图解决对齐问题。好,现在想象一下,想象有一种道德目标的统一性,在传统写作中被认为是应放在最高位置的东西。那么最终来说,这即是上帝。虽然它难以言喻,但它是单一神论的一种基本统一。现在,这是一个假设。当这种统一崩溃时,会有两种事物来取代它:一种是权力的追求,另一种是无节制的享乐主义,尤其是在性满足方面。所以,如果没有面向未来和社区的最终统一,这种统一基于牺牲,那么文化会立即解体成争夺统治地位的两大对手。
And one is, it's about me, buddy, and get the hell out of the way. And aligned with that is not only is it about me, it's about me, what would you say, subjugated to my most base whims because why would I want power except to do exactly what the hell I want whenever I want to? And so part of the problem with the idea of people like Dawkins, so Dawkins and the atheists because they didn't- I've had many conversations with Dawkins over the years. You have, eh? Oh, yeah, yeah. Oh, we're going to do a podcast together, which I'm very looking forward to. Yeah. But I'm very curious about this issue because his idea and it's kind of enlightenment idea is that we dispensed with the idiot superstition of the past, then everyone would become, you know, baconian rationalists and that seemed- Yeah. Unfortunately not.
这个翻译成中文后大致的意思是这样的,尽量做到易读:
“其中一个方面是,这个事情关系到我,伙计,赶紧让开。而且这不仅仅是关于我自己,还涉及到我的最原始的欲望,因为我为什么要权力呢?不就是为了能随心所欲地做我想做的事吗?所以,像道金斯这样的人,以及那些无神论者,他们某些观点的问题在于——我多年里和道金斯有很多次对话。真的吗?哦,是的,是的。哦,我们准备一起做一个播客节目,我非常期待。是的。但我对这个问题很感兴趣,因为他的观点——有点像启蒙时代的观点——认为只要我们摒弃过去那些愚蠢的迷信,每个人都会成为培根式的理性主义者。这看起来……是的。不幸的是,并不是这样。”
No, well, what seems to me to happen much more likely is that power and hedonism rise to take place of what was holy, so to speak. You know, Anicha warned about that when he proclaimed the death of God to begin with. He thought nihilism would also enter the realm, right? Nihilism, power and hedonism as the triumvirate of replacement gods. And so I've been trying to puzzle out in this new book the way the biblical corpus is conceptualizing what's properly placed in the highest place. And it does- that's part of the reason I was asking you about the natalist issue because you figured out 20 years ago, that's a long time before anybody being talking- Yeah, it was a long time. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. And then you also did publicly proclaim it at a time when the insistence- the moral insistence was all on the side of, you know, Jane Goodall's pronouncements that if we don't reduce the population of the planet dramatically, that the nature goddess is going to be upset, which is also a very, very old idea, not a very good one. So I'm very curious about your intuition there. Like that's a long time ago. And so how did you cotton on to the fact that that antagonistic attitude towards birth that's embedded in our culture now was something that should be called out and that was pathological?
不,对我来说,更有可能发生的是权力和享乐主义取代了原本神圣的东西。你知道的,尼采在宣布“上帝之死”时就警告过这一点。他认为虚无主义也会出现,对吧?虚无主义、权力和享乐主义成为替代神的三位一体。所以,我在这本新书中试图解开《圣经》对于什么应该处在最高位置的概念化。这也是我问你关于生育问题的部分原因,因为你在二十年前就发现了这一点,那时还没有人讨论这个问题——是的,那是很久以前了。是的,是的。而且你确实在公众面前宣告了这一点,当时道德上的坚持都是在一边,比如简·古道尔的声明,如果我们不大幅减少地球上的人口,自然女神会生气,这也是一个非常非常古老的观念,但并不是一个非常好的观念。所以我很好奇你的直觉。那是很久以前的事情。你是怎么意识到我们文化中对生育的敌对态度是应该被指出并且是病态的呢?
Well, I mean, I should perhaps go back to what is the foundation of my philosophy? Because that that I think helps build up, you know, to explain my actions. So the- when I was, I don't know, about 11 or 12 years old, I had somewhat of an existential crisis because it just didn't seem to be any meaning in the world, like no meaning to life. And so I actually read- tried to read all the religious texts. At that age? Yes. Yes. So I was a voracious reader as a kid. So I, you know, obviously read the Bible. I read the Quran, the Torah, you know, the various- I've put on the Hindu side. Just trying to understand all these things. And obviously as a 12 year old, you're not really going to understand these things super well, but I've just- Well, you understood it well enough to have an existential crisis when you were 11 or 12. Yeah, I'm just trying to figure out- Well, that's a start. Does anyone have an answer that makes sense?
好吧,我的意思是,我或许应该回溯一下我的哲学基础是什么,因为我觉得这有助于解释我的行为。在我大约11或12岁的时候,我经历了一场存在主义危机,因为世界上似乎没有任何意义,生命也没有意义。所以我当时真的尝试阅读所有的宗教文本。那个年龄?是的,是的。我小时候是个贪婪的读者,所以我读了圣经,读了可兰经,读了《托拉》,还有一些印度教的经典。只是为了理解这些东西。当然,作为一个12岁的孩子,你不可能真正理解这些东西,但我只是……嗯,你理解得足够好,所以在11或12岁时就经历了一场存在主义危机。是的,我只是想弄清楚——有没有人有一个能说得通的答案?
And then I started getting into the philosophy books. And I read quite a bit of Shopan hour in Nietzsche, and which is quite depressing to read as a kid. Yeah. You might say that. Best depressing as an adult. But- And- And- And- And- And- And- And- And nothing really seemed to have to me answers that resonated, at least to me. And so- But then I read Douglas Adams, Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, which is really a book on philosophy disguised as humor. And what Douglas Adams, the point that Adams tries to make there is that we don't actually know all the answers, obviously. Yeah. In fact, we don't even know what the right questions are to ask. That's where he has, you know, this- If you read the book, the- you know, Earth is actually a giant computer to understand the answer to the question, what is the meaning of life? Yeah. And comes up with the answer 42. Yeah. And I feel like what does that mean? It says, oh, you actually- You don't understand that the real- the thing that's going to take a computer far more powerful than Earth is to understand what question to ask. Yeah, right. That's simply the wrong question. So was that the key realization that- That the question was the same? I would say that was a fundamental turning point, yeah. Yeah, because that's it. So that's very interesting, because one of the things that you see constantly portrayed in redemptive hero myths across the world is that the adventure is the thing, and that the search is the thing rather than there being a final answer, as observed as 42 might be, right? There's no- There's no- the conclusive answer is something like deep engagement in the process. So I'll give you an example of that. So in the Sermon on the Mount, the Sermon on the Mounts, a very detailed set of instructions. Yeah. So there's three parts to it. The first is aim at the highest thing that you can possibly conceive of, and keep modifying that so your aim gets better. Okay, so that's number one. Number two is make the presumption that other people have the same intrinsic value as you do. Well, we have to be careful about that one. Okay, okay. Well, let's discuss that, but it's a- what would you say? It's a recognition of the universalist value of everyone who's made in the image of God. It's something like that. But the third thing is once you do those two things, you can concentrate on the moment. See, and that seems to be- even technically, you can think about this neuropsychologically.
然后我开始读哲学书。我读了不少叔本华和尼采的书。作为小孩读这些书真是很压抑。对,你可以这么说。作为成年人读也很压抑。但是——没有什么书真正给我提供了能引起我共鸣的答案。然而,我后来读了道格拉斯·亚当斯的《银河系漫游指南》,这本书其实是披着幽默外衣的哲学书。道格拉斯·亚当斯想表达的是,我们其实并不知道所有答案;事实上,我们甚至不知道该问什么样的问题。所以在书里,地球实际上是个巨大的电脑,用来解答“生命的意义是什么”这个问题,结果得出了答案42。我感到,这意味着什么呢?他告诉你,你实际上并不知道正确的问题是什么。要理解这个问题,需要一个比地球更强大的电脑。所以,这就是关键的领悟:问题本身才是重要的。我认为这是一个根本性的转折点。
这很有趣,因为全球的英雄救赎神话中,探险旅程本身才是重点,而不是最终的答案,就像答案42那样。最终的答案其实就像是深度参与这个过程一样。我给你举个例子,在《山上宝训》中,有三个要点:首先是要瞄准你能想象到的最高目标,不断调整,让这个瞄准越来越准确。这是第一个。第二个是假设其他人跟你有同样的内在价值。当然,这点需要小心对待。我们可以讨论这个,但这是一种承认每个人都具有普遍价值,就像每个人都是按上帝的形象造的一样。第三点,一旦你做到前两点,你就可以专注于当下的时刻。从神经心理学的角度来看也是这样的。
So if you're looking for meaning, meaning is a form of incentive reward. An incentive reward is topaminergic-immediated. An incentive reward occurs in relationship to advancement towards a goal, which is a form of entropy minimization, as it turns out, according to Carl Friston, who knows this sort of thing. Entropy is the ultimate boss battle. Yeah, right, right, right, right. Well, negative emotion signifies the emergence of entropy and positive emotion on the dopaminergic side signals its reduction. But there's something that's more complex there because the higher the goal that you're trying to attain, the more intrinsic value each step towards it comprises, and that's neuropsychologically accurate. And so part of the wisdom of the Sermon on the Mount is that if you posit the highest imaginable goal, then any step towards it is that captures your attention is also deeply meaningful. And so that's an answer to what the meaning is of process rather than say something like 42. And you said, it seems to me that you were intimating that your discovery through atoms that the question was the thing was key to the resolution of your existential crisis. That's correct.
所以,如果你在寻找意义,意义是一种激励奖励。激励奖励是通过多巴胺机制实现的。激励奖励发生在向目标前进的过程中,这种过程实际上是一种熵的最小化,正如Carl Friston所说的那样,他对这些事情很了解。熵是最终的头目战。是的,对,对,对,对。那么,负面情绪意味着熵的出现,而多巴胺驱动的正面情绪则表示熵的减少。但这其中更加复杂,因为你努力达成的目标越高,每一步所包含的内在价值就越大,而这是神经心理学上的准确描述。因此,登山宝训的智慧之一在于,如果你设定了可想象的最高目标,那么任何向此目标前进的步骤都会深具意义。因此,这就回答了过程的意义,而不是简单地给出一个像42这样的结论。你还说过,对你来说,通过原子发现问题本身是关键,这个发现是解决你存在危机的关键。没错。
Okay, so that's part of the reason that you're motivated to say build Grog 3 and look in, look deeper. To understand. Yeah, yeah. Understand the universe. Okay, so once how old were you when you figured that when you figured out that the question... 13 or something. What did that do to you? What did that do to you? Well, I was a lot happier after that. Because now it's like, okay, well, I'm just going to accept that we are ignorant of great many things. Yeah. And we wish to be less ignorant. And anything we can do that will improve our understanding of the universe and make us less ignorant and have a deeper understanding of the universe and even what questions to answer to ask about the answer that is the universe, which is, I think, Adam's a central point is good. And so... And that was good enough to resolve that crisis. It was, it was for me at least. Yeah. And so like, is this a religion? I don't know, maybe it is. But I think it's a good one. I'd call the religion of curiosity. Yeah. Well, the ancient god of the Mesopotamians, his name was Marduk and he was the best defense against ensuing chaos and state corruption. Okay, so that's how he was conceptualized. Okay, Marduk had eyes all the way around his head. Okay. Because he paid attention. Right. And he spoke magic words. Okay. Right. And he was literally for the Mesopotamians. He was the agent that revitalized the tyrannical state and overcame evil. And also the force that dispensed with chaos and built something magnificent and cosmic out of it. Right. Right. So yeah, yeah. Sounds like a force for good. Yeah, yeah, yeah. All of the Mesopotamian emperor, so his job was to embody that spirit on earth. And they used to take him out of the city on New Year's Eve, strip him of his kingly clothing, humiliate him, they slapped him, the priests, and then they'd ask him to confess all the ways that he hadn't been a good Marduk, attentive and speaking properly in the previous year. And that's how they renewed the cosmos every year in Missouri. That's our New Year celebration is a derivation of that out with the old and in with the new. And the Egyptians, they worshiped the eye. Right. You've seen that famous eye. You all see I have Horace. They're all seeing I have Horace. That's the antidote to the I have Sauron, by the way. Right. Because you get if you don't use that vision, if each citizen doesn't use that vision, it's replaced by the totalitarian all seeing I. Right. Right. So that's a hell of a thing to know.
好的,这就是你有动机去构建Grog 3并深入探索的部分原因。为了理解。对,对。理解宇宙。所以,你多大时才意识到这个问题……13岁还是之类的?那对你产生了什么影响?那对你产生了什么影响?嗯,自那之后我开心多了。因为现在我明白了,我们对许多事物一无所知。而我们希望不再那么无知。任何能提高我们对宇宙理解的东西,都能让我们不再那么无知,能让我们更深入地理解宇宙,甚至能提问关于宇宙本身的问题,我觉得这是Adam的一个中心点,这是好的。所以……那足以解决我的危机了。至少对我来说是这样。而且这像是一个宗教吗?我不知道,也许是。但我认为这是一个好宗教。我会称之为好奇心的宗教。对,古代美索不达米亚人的神是Marduk,他是对抗混乱和国家腐败的最佳手段。好的,所以这是他的概念。Marduk头上长满了眼睛。因为他时刻关注。他还说着魔法词语。他对于美索不达米亚人来说,真的是复兴暴政国家并战胜邪恶的代理人。他也是消除混乱并从中建造出宏大且宇宙性的事物的力量。所以,对,对,听起来像是一股善良的力量。对,对,对。所有美索不达米亚的皇帝,他们的任务就是在地球上体现这种精神。在新年前夜,他们会把他带出城市,剥去他的王衣,羞辱他,祭司们会打他,然后让他忏悔过去一年中他没有像Marduk一样全神贯注和恰当地说话的方式。这就是他们每年在密苏里州更新宇宙的方法。我们的新年庆祝也是从那演变过来的,除旧迎新。而埃及人,他们崇拜眼睛。你见过那个著名的眼睛。全视之眼,荷鲁斯之眼。那是对抗索伦之眼的解毒剂。如果每个公民不使用那种视野,它就会被极权主义的全视之眼所取代。所以,这是一个非常重要的知识。
Okay. So that's cool. So I wondered, I see, I see, because I wondered what's motivated you because you push in so many directions simultaneously. You have to be really highly motivated to do that. And so you figured out that the question in a sense was the answer. Yeah. Yeah. The question, or, you know, I said another way that seeking greater enlightenment and a better understanding of the universe and what questions to ask about it is something that we can continue to do as a civilization for a very long time. Yeah. Yeah. Likely forever.
好的。这很有意思。所以我在想,我明白了,因为我在想是什么驱动了你,因为你同时在很多方向上努力。要做到这一点,你必须非常有动力。所以你认为问题本身在某种意义上就是答案。对,对。问题,或者换句话说,追求更高的智慧和对宇宙的更好理解,以及问关于宇宙的问题,是我们作为一个文明可以长期继续做的事情。对,很可能是永远。
Exactly. So. Depending on how powerful grok turns out to be. Yeah. So that's a, so then I throw out, okay, I'll work on things that improve our understanding of the universe. And now that they're said, like, at a base level, well, this is why I actually think we want a population increase because population increase means that there are more people that we've expanded the scale. More brains, man. Yeah. We've expanded the scale of consciousness to the Greek. There are different cultures. We've expanded the scope of consciousness. So there's, you know.
好的,明白了。所以,根据grok(理解)有多强大来看,好吧。那么,我提出来的想法是,我会去研究一些能改善我们对宇宙理解的东西。既然说到这儿了,其实我认为我们需要增加人口,因为人口增加意味着我们扩大了规模。更多的人,更多的大脑。是的,我们扩大了意识的范围,涉及到各种不同的文化。我们扩展了意识的领域。所以呢,你懂的。
So I read something here. I talked to this gentleman who done a biography of Marx and he went and looked at Marx's poetry and drama that he wrote before he wrote the Communist Manifesto. And he found out something very interesting. He found out that Marx's favorite quote from Gertha was a statement by Mephistopheles. It's a very specific statement and it's a very key statement. Mephistopheles' motivation, so Lucifer's motivation, is predicated on this argument. He said, consciousness is nothing but consciousness of pain and misery. Life is short and brutal and pointless. Therefore, it would be better if consciousness itself was eradicated. I was like, Hobbes. Yeah. Well, I had a little Yorkshire Terrier who was a nasty British and short, so I named him Hobbes. Perfect. Perfect. Well, I think it's even deeper than Hobbes because Hobbes seem to understand that life without social order would degenerate into that. But the Mephistophilia in Credo is that consciousness itself is an evil that should be eradicated because it produces suffering. And that was Marx's favorite. It is the very definition of crazy.
所以,我在这里读到了一些东西。我与一位撰写马克思传记的绅士交谈过,他研究了马克思在写《共产党宣言》之前写的诗歌和戏剧,并发现了一些非常有趣的事情。他发现,马克思最喜欢的歌德的引用是来自梅菲斯特菲勒斯的一句话。这是一个非常具体且非常关键的声明。梅菲斯特菲勒斯(即路西法)的动机基于这样的论点:他说,意识不过是痛苦和悲惨的意识。生活是短暂、残酷且毫无意义的。因此,最好是消除意识本身。我当时就想到霍布斯。对,我之前有只约克夏梗犬,很顽皮又短小,我给他取名叫霍布斯,完美,完美。不过我觉得这比霍布斯更深刻,因为霍布斯认为没有社会秩序的生活会堕落成那样,而梅菲斯特菲勒斯的信条则认为意识本身是一种应当根除的邪恶,因为它产生痛苦。这是马克思的最爱。这真是疯狂的定义。
Yeah. It's the definition of the adversarial spirit. Now, your hypothesis, your axiom, let's say, is that that's wrong and that consciousness should be so then we say, so why should consciousness be expanded if it's nothing but consciousness? Of suffering in your. answer? Obviously false. Okay. Well, not so obvious. Lots of people suffer like lots of suicidal and nihilistic. And so and you had that crisis of faith, let's say, when you were 11 or 12, an existential crisis, but you resolved it. Meaning of life crisis. Right. Right. So, no, I think it's just obviously false that people, while there are people who are very sad, there are people also who are very happy and we go through sad and happy moments every human being does. So it's not it's an absurd and obviously false statement that life is merely suffering. Yes. I mean, that is just a ridiculously false statement.
是的,这正是对抗精神的定义。那么,你的假设,你的公理,可以说是错的,即意识应该是,如果它仅仅是痛苦的意识,我们为什么要扩展意识呢?你的回答显然是错误的。好吧,也不那么明显。很多人确实在痛苦中挣扎,比如有自杀倾向和虚无主义的很多人。而你在11或12岁的时候,经历了一次信仰危机,可以说是一次存在危机,但你解决了它。是的,是一种生命意义的危机。对。所以,我认为人们虽然有非常难过的时候,但也有非常快乐的时候,每个人都会经历悲伤和快乐的时刻。所以说生命只是痛苦,这是一个荒谬且显然错误的说法。是的,这真是一个荒谬而错误的说法。
One of the things I've tried to do is to understand, so like, there are a limited number of things that are undeniably real and pain is one of them. Yes. Okay. So like my back hurts a little. Yes. That's because you're up till five in the morning. No, I just have some injuries, but I. From wrestling? From, I think, some childhood injuries that although the final thing that caused some back and shoulder injuries was me fully fighting the world champion, Timore Ressler, and charging him at full speed. It's an outcome over which I did succeed in doing, but. But you paid a price for it. A very high price. Carnivore diet will fix that. The what sorry? The Carnivore diet will fix it. Look, I'm awful. I like meat. I'm pro meat. I don't think a carnivore diet is going to fix this particularly issue. I think my wife had an injury of 40 years and it resolved in two years. Is he safe? Carnivore diet. If you just eat steak or something.
有一件事我一直在努力去理解,就是有一些东西是无可否认的真实存在的,而痛苦就是其中之一。我的背有点疼。是因为你熬夜到早上五点吗?不,只是因为一些旧伤。是摔跤引起的吗?我想是一些童年旧伤,不过最终导致我背部和肩部受伤的是我全力以赴挑战世界冠军Timore Ressler,并全速冲向他。这是一场我最终取得成功的比赛,但也付出了很大的代价。食肉饮食可以治好这些。什么?对,食肉饮食可以解决这些问题。看,我很喜欢肉,我是食肉的支持者,但我不觉得食肉饮食能解决这些特定的问题。我妻子有一个持续了40年的旧伤,在两年内痊愈了。真的吗?食肉饮食。如果你只吃牛排之类的食物。
Yeah. I mean, I. All beef. Sure, sure, sure. I I'm a pro. I like meat. But I think this is a. I think I'll probably need an operation or something. I tried the Carnivore diet first. Oh, sure. Sure. Anyways, that did happen to her. She couldn't lift her left arm above here. It took 40 years and in two years it resolved. Okay. Yeah. So that was something to see. It also rejuvenated her physically in a variety of different ways that were quite miraculous to watch. Yeah. Yeah. And that hasn't stopped. So that's weird thing. And I would have never believed it if I hadn't seen this because it's so preposterous. Sure. Anyways, I'm not going to proselytize about the Carnivore diet. Yeah.
好的。我是说,我,全吃牛肉。嗯,嗯,嗯。我是个专家,我喜欢吃肉。但是我觉得这个,我觉得我可能需要做个手术或者什么的。我首先尝试了肉食饮食。哦,当然。当然。不管怎样,那确实发生在她身上了。她一度无法抬起左臂。用了四十年,两年内恢复了。好吧。是的,那真是让人大开眼界。这也在不同方面让她身体焕发青春,奇迹般地看着她恢复。是,是。而且这种情况一直没有停止。所以这很奇怪。要不是亲眼见到,我绝不会相信,因为这太荒谬了。当然。不管怎样,我不打算宣传肉食饮食。嗯。
So okay. Okay. So that now let's go back to AI if you don't mind. So you were involved in the project that Sam Altman runs now. Open AI. I was one of the principal co-founders. Right. I in fact, I named it. Yeah. So so what the hell happened? It was my idea. What happened? Well, I I saw it. So the origins of opening. But I was very close with with Larry Page is one of my best friends. And in fact, I'd stayed his house because I'd spent half the week in the Bay Area running Tesla in half in LA running SpaceX.
好吧,好吧。那么现在,如果你不介意的话,我们再回到人工智能这个话题。你之前参与了现在由Sam Altman领导的OpenAI项目,对吗?
是的,我是其中一位主要的联合创始人。实际上,这个名字是我起的。
那么,究竟发生了什么?这是我的想法,后来发生了什么?
嗯,我看到了它的起源。我和Larry Page关系非常密切,他是我最好的朋友之一。事实上,我曾经住在他家,因为每周有一半的时间我在湾区管理特斯拉,另一半时间则在洛杉矶管理SpaceX。
And I and for the longest time, I never even had a house in the Bay Area. I would just stay at friends, friends, places that a spare room might stay there if they didn't have sleep on the couch. And and I find it actually to be a good. It's very funny that you stayed on the couch. I think that's very funny. Yeah. Yeah. I'm you know, I'm going to cast that off. But but but it was but I I didn't have a house for more than a decade.
很长一段时间里,我在湾区甚至没有自己的房子。我通常住在朋友那里,如果朋友有空房间,我就住在那里,如果没有空房间,我就睡在沙发上。我觉得这样其实挺不错的。你觉得我睡在沙发上很有趣,是吧?嗯,我计划放下这种生活方式。但是,我确实有超过十年的时间没有自己的房子。
So I would just stay at rotates through friends, places, which is a great way to cash up with friends. Yeah, right. Right. And and so I would have these conversations with Larry Page long into the night about AI safety. And I just grew increasingly concerned that Dari was not sufficiently concerned about AI safety. And at one point, he did call me a species. Yes, you are one. Yes. Yes, that's I guess correctly labeled. Yes. And he's kind of like he fully it's not there are other people around when he did that. And notice the attempt to deny it.
所以我经常会去不同朋友的家待着,这也是一个与朋友叙旧的好方法。对,对。然后我常常会和拉里·佩奇聊到深夜,讨论人工智能的安全问题。我越来越担心,觉得他对AI安全的问题不够重视。有一次,他还叫我“物种主义者”。的确,我是个人类,没错。这么说也算是准确。那时候不只有我们俩,还有其他人在场,他也没有试图否认。
That's I'm a species in favor of humans instead of. As like compared to like, for example, well, no more like relative to digital intelligence. Oh, yeah, that's even worse. His view is that digital intelligence should be, you know, that I mean, Larry's view is from not speaking is that ultimately we will all upload our minds to the computer. And everyone will just be robots. Yeah. And for a while, he's. There's not much difference between that and the death of humanity.
Well, yeah, I think that's. Um, because whatever we'd be, then it wouldn't be what we are now. Right. And that, you know, and if we pay a price for what we are now, and that's the price of our intrinsic limitations, and that is a difficult bidder, let's say, pill to swallow. But I also think, so I've thought recently, you know, how do you know that something's real? Say death makes things real death makes things real. Sure.
我更倾向于人类,而不是其他物种。比如说,相较于数字智能。哦,对,那更糟。他的观点是,数字智能,应该说,我的意思是,Larry 的观点是,最终我们都会把思想上传到计算机上,每个人都会变成机器人。是的,就这一点来说,这和人类的灭亡没多大区别。
嗯,是的,我认为是这样。因为无论我们将成为什么,都不再是现在的我们了。而且,我们现在的存在也是有代价的,那就是我们内在的局限性,这是一片苦药,但我们必须吞下。但我也认为,最近我一直在思考,怎么知道某样东西是真实的?比如说,死亡让事物变得真实,死亡让事物变得真实,没错。
And so if you if you eradicate death, it seems to me that in some fundamental level, you also eradicate reality itself. So I don't like I haven't figured out the connection. There is an important like death death does play an important role. Because I think you really could evolve humans to live much longer or most creatures live much longer. But there's over time, uh, evolution as a, you believe in evolution, um, has, um, found that there, it's better for organisms to have a finite life. Um, and that death, death brings renewal, essentially.
因此,我觉得如果你消除死亡,从某种根本上来说,你也会消除现实本身。所以,我还没有弄清楚其中的关联。但是,死亡确实扮演了一个重要角色。因为我认为人类或大多数生物确实可以进化得更长寿。但是,从进化的角度来看,如果你相信进化论,生物体有有限的寿命是更好的。而死亡实际上带来了新的生命。
Mm hmm. And I think we do need to be cautious about trying to solve longevity in a, in a sort of a live forever type sense, because I think our, our society, our culture would ossify. Um, and the people in power would always remain in power. Um, Well, and you wouldn't, you know, if you had, let's say you apprehended a 10,000 year span of consciousness with no sleep. Yeah. I don't know what the hell you'd be if that was who you were, but you wouldn't be human. Sure.
嗯,嗯。我认为我们需要谨慎对待试图解决长寿问题,尤其是那种试图实现永生的方式。因为我认为我们的社会和文化会因此僵化。掌权的人将永远掌权。
嗯,而且你知道吗,如果你能设想一个不需要睡眠的1万年的意识跨度,我不知道那时候你将会变成什么,但那时候的你肯定已经不是人类了。
And then we also don't understand that, see, part of the problem, I think with the perspective that the technologists are taking with regards to human existence is that there's a reductionism there that's something, it's, it's something like there's no difference between us and the gist of our linguistic network, something like that. Like, whatever we are as conscious beings is a hell of a lot deeper than the patterns of thought that make up our cortical existence. Consciousness is way deeper than cortical existence. Like, I, I, yeah, maybe, um, I, I do think you have to ask this sort of, this gradient question of, um, where along, where, um, does consciousness arise?
我觉得,技术专家在看待人类存在的问题时,他们的观点里存在某种简化的倾向。这种简化的看法,有点类似于认为我们和我们语言网络的核心没有什么区别。实际上,作为有意识的生物,我们远比那些构成我们大脑皮层思维模式的东西要深奥得多。意识的深度远远超过了大脑皮层的存在。因此,我认为,可能我们需要问一个渐进性的问题,即:意识究竟在什么阶段出现?
Now, I've seen a sort of traditional, uh, question, uh, faith, you would say that, well, there's a soul that inhabits the body and that's the consciousness, perhaps. Um, but, uh, you know, is it, is it what we all started as, as a single cell. So is that single cell conscious? I mean, it doesn't look right. It's, it's, you can't talk to it. It's just a cell. Um, it differentiates very strangely. First, yeah, it's, it's, it's, it has that teleology built into it. That's very difficult to understand, but conscious, it seems not to be, not at that point. It doesn't seem to be conscious. Um, so, so where, um, as, as it, it divides into many more cells, eventually reaching to, uh, and, you know, an adult human has 30 to 40 trillion cells.
现在,我看到一种传统的问题,可以说是信仰方面的问题,那就是,有一个灵魂居住在身体里,而那可能就是意识。但是,你知道,我们所有人最初是一颗细胞。那么那颗细胞有意识吗?我觉得不是这样,因为它看起来不像,它不能和你对话,它只是一颗细胞。它的分化过程也很奇怪。首先,它有某种指向性,这很难理解,但它似乎并没有意识,至少在那个阶段没有意识。所以,当它分裂成越来越多的细胞,最终一个成年人体内有30到40万亿个细胞。那么,意识到底是在什么时候出现的呢?
Um, so where, where does, is it, where does consciousness arise? Does it grow slowly? Is there a step change? Um, and, uh, you know, I tend to generally believe in physics. Um, and. You seem to have done pretty well with that, please, by the way. Yes. Well, I, I was saying that, uh, physics is the law and everything else is a recommendation. Um, because people can break, um, and do break. Uh, man made laws, but they, uh, you have to see someone break laws of physics. So, uh, you know, and so if you, if you have, uh, beliefs that are incompatible with a rocket getting to orbit, the rocket will not get to orbit. Right. Right. Right. Right.
嗯,那么,意识是从哪里产生的?它是慢慢生长的?还是说有一个突变?嗯,我一般倾向于相信物理学。而且,你似乎在这方面做得很不错。是的,我说过,物理学是规律,而其他的只是建议。因为人们可以而且确实会违反人为的法律,但你还没见过有人违反物理定律。所以,如果你的信念与火箭进入轨道不兼容,那么火箭便无法进入轨道。对,对,对。
Yeah. A pragmatic physics is a harsh judge. Yes. Definitely. Yeah. Definitely. Do you think these LLMs, like, do you think that any of the machinery that you've interacted with is showing anything, signs of anything that might be equated to consciousness? I mean, the LLMs are remarkable, right? And they certainly pass the Turing test as far as I'm concerned. Yes. Pass the Turing test. So, uh, from, from a testing standpoint, I think we will, if we're not there already, we soon will be where you would not be able to tell that you're. Yeah. Interacting with a computer or. That's coming right away, man. Yes. In fact, probably. Sort of here. And unless you're really sneaky and you ask, like, harsh questions and cornered the damn things were probably already there. Yeah. So, you know, don't know. If you know some of the tricks, like, how many Rs are there in renderer? And then, Bizali can't figure that one out. Oh, I didn't know that. That was one of its.
是的。从实用物理学的角度来看,这是一个严厉的评判者。确实如此。绝对是这样。你认为这些大型语言模型(LLM),比如,你认为你接触过的这些机器,有没有展示出任何可以与意识相提并论的迹象?我的意思是,这些LLM相当了不起,对吧?就我而言,它们肯定通过了图灵测试。是的,通过了图灵测试。所以,从测试的角度来看,我认为如果我们现在还没达到这个水平,很快也会到达——你将无法分辨你是在与计算机互动还是与人互动。这种情况马上就要来了,实际上,可能已经有点到来了。除非你非常狡猾,提出一些刁钻的问题,把这些东西逼到绝境,我们可能已经在这个水平了。所以,我不确定。如果你知道一些小技巧,比如问“renderer”这个词有几个字母“r”,那么,可能它们就搞不清楚这个问题了。哦,我不知道这是其中的一个缺陷。
Yeah. So it has these weird lacunae in its knowledge, right? Well, it's, it's, but that. It divides everything into tokens and those tokens are more than one letter. And so it actually, weirdly, it's, it's myopic with respect to single letters. Right. I see. So it's got a resolution problem. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Now you can get around with this with, like, like weird tricks. Like, if you ask, ask it to write a computer program to count the number of letters in a word, it can create that computer program, run it, and then, and then get the number of letters correct. Hmm. Right. Right. Anyway, but I, I, so back to.
是的,它在知识方面有一些奇怪的空白,对吧?嗯,它把所有东西都分成了多个字母的单元。而奇怪的是,在处理单个字母时,它的视野变得很狭窄。对,我明白了,这就像是一个分辨率问题。是的,是的。不过你可以通过一些奇特的技巧来解决这个问题。比如,如果你让它写一个计算单词中字母数量的计算机程序,它可以编写并运行这个程序,然后准确地得到字母的数量。嗯,对,对。无论如何,回到之前的话题。
So on the other question, the conscious is always thinking like, where are long lines? Like, is, is everything conscious or is nothing conscious? Potentially. And I think you want to just, when you're trying to understand something, consider the various possible answers and think that there's a probability associated with each one of these answers as opposed to a certain TV. Now, if physics is correct, the universe started off with consisting almost entirely of hydrogen, little bit helium and some lithium. And that coalesced into stars that exploded. You know, when a coalesced in stars, you had the formation of heavier elements. And, and then those stars got, got scattered and then reformed and made new stars. Um, and, uh, so we eventually got, uh, elements that are higher in the periodic table besides the, the very basic ones. That's the physics equivalent of Jacob's ladder, I think. Yeah. So this is, this is what physics predicts. This strange spiral upward towards some, somewhat towards consciousness. Well, well, yeah. So, um, but the point is that universe, at least quench physics started out essentially as hydrogen. And given enough time, you had more, um, your complex, uh, or you have, heavy elements and more complex molecules. And, and then 13.8 billion years later, at least on this planet, we have what we call consciousness in the form, you know.
所以关于另一个问题,意识总是在思考:界限在哪里?是所有东西都有意识,还是没什么东西有意识?有潜力的嘛。而我认为,当你试图理解某件事情时,应该考虑各种可能的答案,并认为每个答案都存在一个概率,而不是确定的答案。
如果物理学是正确的,宇宙在刚开始时几乎完全由氢组成,还有一些氦和锂。这些元素凝聚成星星,星星爆炸。你知道,当它们凝聚成星时,形成了更重的元素。然后这些星星散开,又重新形成新的星星。最终,我们得到了在元素周期表中更高的元素,除了最基本的那些。我想这就是物理学中的“雅各的天梯”。对,这就是物理学的预测:这种向意识发展的奇异螺旋上升过程。
总之,重点是宇宙,至少根据物理学,最初基本上是氢。在足够的时间后,你会有更多复杂的分子,于是138亿年后,至少在这个星球上,我们有了我们称之为意识的存在形式。
Yeah. But, but, but that means consciousness had to arise. It's implicit at least from hydrogen. Yeah. Well, um, see. So if you just leave hydrogen out in the sun long enough, it's talking to itself. Well, this is, I think what you're, I've seen your comments on this before. I think you're pointing to the same sort of thing that my friend Jonathan Pazio has been trying to elucidate, which is that there's, uh, there's an implicit structure of possibility. He associates this with the concept of heaven. Like, there's an implicit structure of possibility that material forms are trying to flesh out. And so in some sense the possibility of consciousness is inherent in the hydrogen atoms, right? Obviously because of the courage. Yeah. So, so it's it's, it's, it's, it's a talk, that's a tautology in some ways, but maybe everything's conscious in some way. It means just the grease of consciousness or concentrations of consciousness.
对啊,但是,但这意味着意识必须得出现。至少在氢元素中是隐含的。嗯,好吧,你看,如果你把氢元素长时间放在阳光下,它就会开始自言自语了。我觉得你这样的想法,我以前看到你的评论也是这样。我觉得你指的和我朋友乔纳森·帕齐奥 (Jonathan Pazio)试图阐明的东西是一样的,即存在一种隐含的可能性结构。他把这和天堂的概念联系起来。也就是说,有一种隐含的可能性结构,物质形式正试图展现出来。所以某种意义上,意识的可能性是内在于氢原子中的,对吧?显然是因为勇气。所以,这在某种程度上是一种同义反复,但可能一切在某种程度上都是有意识的。也就是说,意识的浓度或聚集程度不同而已。
Yeah well I wonder if that's associated with the notion, the Christian notion that the word is primary. Because in mythological representations you have three fundamental elements. You have something like order which you can think about as society but it's the a priori axiomatic interpretive structure. You have that. Then you have chaotic potential. That's the tau v'abohu that exists at the beginning of time. So the way God is represented in the story of Genesis is that so God is the a priori interpretive process that gives rise to order as a consequence of manipulating potential. And the intermediary factor is the word. That's the Christian conception. And the word is something like well language but it's also something like the sacrificial gesture that's necessary for learning to take place. So you could imagine this. When you learn something it's not only that you add to a storehouse that you have it's that something that you already know has to undergo a death and a transformation. You know most real learning is painful. You think? Yeah I mean. Well I think about well well the deeper the axiom that shift thing when you learn the more chaos is associated with it that can be exciting but it can also be destabilizing. That existential crisis that you had had great potential right because you resolved it but that didn't mean it was without its pain.
好的,我想这可能与基督教中“言语是根本”的概念有关。在神话中的表现中,有三个基本要素。第一个是秩序,可以理解为社会,但它实际上是先验的、公理化的解释结构。你有这个秩序。然后你还有混沌的潜能,这就是存在于时初的“混沌深渊”(tau v'abohu)。所以,在《创世记》的故事中,上帝的形象是作为一个先验解释过程,通过操纵潜能来产生秩序。而中介的因素就是“言语”,这是基督教的概念。这个“言语”类似于语言,但也像是一种必要的牺牲行为,以便让学习发生。所以你可以这样想,当你学习某样东西时,你不仅仅是在增加你的知识库,而是你已经知道的某些东西必须经历死亡和转变。你知道,大多数真正的学习是痛苦的。你觉得呢?是的,我的意思是,当你学习时,越深层的公理发生转变,越多的混沌就会伴随而来,这可能是令人兴奋的,但也可能是动荡的。你曾经历的那种存在危机有着巨大的潜力,因为你最终解决了它,但这并不意味着它没有痛苦。
So if you imagine a hierarchy of axioms right and so the lower down the axiom hierarchy you go the more chaos is released when that axiom is challenged you get a negative emotional response to that with anxiety and threat because God only knows what happens when all hell breaks loose but there's a positive aspect too that's why it's a dragon and a treasure always in the hero mythology. It's because when all hell breaks loose there's immense opportunity and so and that's part of the meaning. Now I think you capitalize on that treasure let's say on the treasure portion of that chaos by assuming something like your own ignorance by allowing your initial preconceptions to die and by tracking the trail of deep and insistent questioning. So now you your questioning took the place if I got it right you basically took the scientific tack is that right because you're yeah well I'm trying to understand the truth of the universe and physics is essentially study of the truth of the universe at least those things that are predictable.
所以,假设你想象一个公理的层级。越往下走,当这些公理被挑战时,释放的混乱也越多,这会引发你负面的情绪反应,像焦虑和威胁感,因为天知道当一切都失控时会发生什么。但是,这也有积极的一面,这就是为什么在英雄神话中总有一条龙和宝藏。当一切失控时,也会有巨大的机会,这是其中的一部分含义。你可以通过承认自己的无知,让最初的先入之见消亡,并通过深入和坚持的质疑来把握这种混乱中的宝藏。所以,你的质疑实际上取代了这一点,如果我没理解错的话,你基本上采取了科学的方法,对吗?因为你在试图理解宇宙的真理,而物理学本质上是对那些可预测的宇宙真理的研究。
So when I when I resolved my existential crisis which happened about the same time years did I started I didn't study science precisely I wasn't as interested in the transformations of the material world so I'm probably more people oriented than thing oriented temperamentally so I started to study evil. Okay that was my so delving into the depths because I wanted to crack that I wanted to understand if it more not so much even whether it existed because I became convinced of that very quickly but what exactly that had to do with me because when I was reading history I read it as a perpetrator and not as a victim or a hero. I mean I try to read history to discern the facts of what humans did. You know so that also shaped the way that you act though. Probably sure I've read a lot of history. I try to understand the rise and fall of civilizations and what do you think makes them fall? One of the things is a decreasing birth rate which seems to be a natural consequence of prosperity.
所以,当我解决了我的存在危机,几乎和你差不多时间的时候,我并没有特别去研究科学,因为我对物质世界的转变不那么感兴趣。我可能性格上更倾向于关注人,而不是物。所以我开始研究邪恶,这是我的一个深入探讨。因为我想破解它,想更好地理解它。其实并不是在研究它是否存在,因为我很快就相信它的存在了,而是想弄清它和我有什么关系。因为在读历史时,我不是以受害者或英雄的身份,而是以加害者的身份来看待这些事情。我试图通过阅读历史,了解人类是如何行为的。这也塑造了你的行为。确实,我读了很多历史,试图理解文明的兴衰。你认为导致文明衰落的原因是什么?其中一个原因是出生率的下降,这似乎是繁荣的一个自然后果。
Yeah isn't that strange hey because you'd kind of predict the opposite wouldn't you? As far as I know every civilization that has experienced prosperity has had a declining population. Maybe a few exceptions perhaps people can enlighten me. I'll look at the comments on this interview to see perhaps what I can learn. It seems that from what I've read every or almost every civilization when they become prosperous their birth rate drops. You think that's a consequence of the emergence of something like a non punished hedonistic egocentrism? Well I'll say there are so many examples of civilizations that become prosperous that is generally a trend towards hedonism. Yeah well you can get away with it if you're wealthy because the consequences of your consequences don't smack you on the head instantly.
是啊,这难道不奇怪吗?因为你会预测情况正好相反,不是吗?据我所知,每一个经历过繁荣的文明,其人口都在下降。也许有几个例外,希望有人能让我知道。我会看一下这次采访的评论,看看是否能学到些什么。根据我的阅读,每一个或几乎每一个文明在变得繁荣时,其出生率都会下降。你认为这是因为出现了一种不受惩罚的享乐主义和自我中心主义的结果吗?我认为这么多繁荣的文明转向享乐主义就是一个普遍趋势。是的,如果你很富有的话,你可以这么做,因为后果不会马上打击到你头上。
Precisely so if you're a civilization under threat like let's say you take say Rome when they were trying to not get annihilated by Carthage and they had Hannibal running around roaring Italy they didn't have time for hedonism. Hedonism is not an option we're going to get destroyed by Hannibal. Chips are down yeah. Yeah when your own when a civilization is under stress there's very little hedonism that takes place. So you know William James said that the modern world needed a moral equivalent to war right he investigated the religious realm very very deeply and this I think this was in the varieties of religious experience and that really had an effect on me because I think that you need something akin to an existential threat in order to set you straight. I think there's some truth to that.
正是如此,如果你的文明正受到威胁,比如说古罗马,他们在试图不被迦太基灭亡的过程中,汉尼拔在意大利横冲直撞,在这种情况下,他们没有时间去追求享乐。享乐主义不是一个选项,因为我们会被汉尼拔摧毁。从根本上说,当一个文明处于压力之下时,几乎没有时间和机会去享乐。威廉·詹姆斯曾说,现代世界需要一个相当于战争的道德对等物。他深入研究了宗教领域,并在《宗教经验的种种》一书中探讨了这一观点,这对我产生了很深的影响。我认为为了让一个文明走上正轨,你需要某种类似于生存威胁的东西。我觉得这其中确实有一些真理。
You know it's sort of like if it's a if it's a spoiled child that where everything who gets that kid gets everything he or she wants and you have sort of a vrook assault situation and then writ large that is a civilization that is a process where people get everything they want. I think it's the right way to think about it developmentally and neuropsychologically because maturation itself consists of two processes let's say the more mature I am the more I'm bringing other people into the purview of my vision so I extend myself across other people be my family first but then brought more the community more broadly the better you're out you are at that the more people you can play a game with at the same time but you also do the same thing with the future and that's actually as far as I can tell what the cortex is for it's to move you away from primordial hedonistic motivation to this more inclusive sense of future and community right and that's right higher order self yeah and so the default would be immaturity and wealth can obviously facilitate that and maybe it's partly because okay so you're a very wealthy man you could give your children anything they ever asked for okay so why not do it why not every time they ask for something like just deliver it yeah there's some wisdom that that comes comes through the ages that that you don't want to have someone be a spoiled rat that's and why do you think giving people everything they want exactly when they want it necessarily produces that because it seems to it did I think it it almost always says can you have a rough childhood yeah yeah like rough and tumble rough childhood plenty of fights and a father who is a difficult creature to contend with okay
你知道,这有点像一个被宠坏的孩子,总是能得到他或她想要的一切,你会有一种"娇宠攻击"的情况。大范围来看,这是一种文明的过程,人们在这个过程中总是能得到他们想要的一切。我认为从发展的角度和神经心理学上来说,这是一个正确的理解方式。因为成熟本身包括两个过程,可以说,我越成熟,就越会将他人纳入我的视野。所以起初可能是我的家庭,但逐渐地会扩展到更广泛的社区。你在这方面越擅长,就能和越多的人同时玩游戏。但你也会对未来做同样的事情,事实上,我认为这是大脑皮层的功能,它让你从原始的享乐动机转向更包容的未来和社区感,这就是所谓的高阶自我。默认情况下是不成熟的,而财富显然可以促进这种不成熟。也许部分原因是在于你很富有,你能给你的孩子任何他们要求的东西。那么,为什么不这样做呢?为什么不每次他们要什么就满足他们呢?通过年龄的积累,你会发现不想让人们变成被宠坏的小混蛋的智慧。那么,为什么你认为让人们在他们想要的时候就得到所有东西会必然导致这种情况呢?因为似乎确实如此。我认为这几乎总是会带来这种结果。你是否有过一个艰难的童年?可能是充满争吵和一个难以相处的父亲的艰难童年?
what do for you um and are you grateful for it are you unhappy about it well I guess you never know the things that really made you who you are today so at the end of the day am I on net grateful for my life I am and perhaps even for the the hard things because those hard things you know I learned from them what do you learn I mean I read your autobiography the son of autobiography no it's not no no no no definitely not I would tell it in a different way than Isaacson because Isaacson what I think is an excellent biographer is not nonetheless looking at things through his lens and wasn't there at the time right of course of course well what one of the things that stood out for me to though from that and I would like your comments about this was the rather the rough details of your childhood a lot of physical altercations and a lot of I don't know exactly how to go out the altercations I mean I was almost beaten to death within an inch of my life at one point right that counts that definitely counts as a just a you know a few flows here and there yeah so what what did that okay why were why aren't you bitter about that because that's a pathway that people take I think that there are one one can take often people do take the path of vengeance yeah that's for sure yeah so or or that's what you know ableism is yeah to say to feel that the world has treated them unfairly and that they will visit upon the world that which the world is visited upon them and so and justified by recourse to the reality of their own suffering exactly which is often intense right yeah yeah so the story of Job one of the things I concluded from the story of Job because it's a precursor to the crucifixion story so Job makes two decisions the first decision is that no matter how terrible things become for him he will not lose faith in himself and the second is no matter what horrors are visited on him by Satan himself he will not lose faith in the what would you say in the spirit that gave rise to the cosmic order right no matter what
你做了什么,并且你为此感恩吗?你对此感到不开心吗?我想你永远也不会知道真正成就了今天的你的是哪些事情。所以归根结底,我总体上对我的生活心怀感激吗?是的,甚至对于那些艰难的事情,我也许也心存感激,因为我从中学到了东西。你学到了什么?我读过你的自传。
“自传的儿子”?——不,不,不,绝对不是,如果是我的自传,那会跟艾萨克森写的完全不同。尽管我认为艾萨克森是一位出色的传记作家,但他看事情的角度不一样,而且当时他也不在现场,对吧?——当然。
在那本书中,有些关于你童年的粗略细节让我印象深刻,我想听听你对此的评论。很多肢体冲突,我不知道该如何描述这些冲突。我曾几乎被打得半死,这算数吧?这绝对算,不仅仅是小打小闹。那么,为什么你对此不怀恨在心呢?因为这通常是人们选择的一条道路。
对,确实是。有人会选择报复的道路。而另一些人会选择觉得世界对他们不公平,并将这种不公平重新报复给世界,并用自己的痛苦来证明这种行为是有道理的。
没错,而这些痛苦往往是深重的。从《约伯记》中我得出了两个结论,这是基督受难故事的前奏。《约伯记》中,约伯做出了两个决定:第一个是无论事情变得多么糟糕,他都不会失去对自己的信心;第二个是无论撒旦给他带来怎样的灾难,他都不会失去对创造宇宙秩序的精神的信心,不管怎样。
well so you know while I'm not a particularly religious person I do believe that the the teaching the teachings of Jesus are good and wise and that there's this tremendous wisdom in turn the other cheek and and for a while there when I was saying I thought well that's really a weak thing yeah it can be if some someone and and with respect to bullies at school I think you shouldn't turn the other cheek pump the punch on the nose and then also and then thereafter make peace with them but they need to stop stop bullying you and a punch on the nose will stop that and then thereafter you know make peace so sometimes that punch on the nose is the first step in making peace with bullies yes it may you know change their career from being a bully to perhaps they shouldn't be doing such things but yeah I think this anyway.
好吧,所以你知道,虽然我不是一个特别宗教的人,但我确实认为耶稣的教义是好的和智慧的,其中“以德报怨”这一点非常有智慧。不过,有一段时间我觉得这有点软弱,尤其是在面对学校里的欺凌者时。我认为在这种情况下你不应该逆来顺受,而是应该给他们一记鼻拳,然后再与他们和解。他们需要停止欺凌一个鼻拳可以让他们停下来,然后你们可以和解。所以有时给欺凌者一记鼻拳是实现和解的第一步。这可能会改变他们的行为,让他们不再欺凌他人。但无论如何,我是这么想的。
Paragraph 1:
so I think this notion of forgiveness is important I think it's essential because if you don't forgive then you know as the forgive you said it but an eye for an eye makes everyone. blind if you're going to seek vengeance and you have this never ending cycle of vengeance there are anthropological speculations that we were caught in a 350,000 year cycle of not getting anywhere after modern human beings emerged precisely because of that because we couldn't get out of accelerating tip for tap revenge cycles right yeah so so I'm I'm actually a big believer in it and the principles of Christianity I think they're very good
所以我认为宽恕的概念很重要,我觉得它是必不可少的。如果你不宽恕,就像那句名言所说的,以眼还眼只会让所有人都变成瞎子。如果你一心只想复仇,就会陷入一个无休止的复仇循环。有人类学的推测认为,在现代人类出现后长达35万年的时间里,我们在某种程度上没能取得任何进展,正是因为我们无法摆脱这种不断升级的报复循环。所以,我非常相信宽恕以及基督教的原则,我觉得它们非常好。
Paragraph 2:
so what sense then are you not religious well so Dawkins just came out of three weeks ago or there about an announce that he was a cultural Christian right and so the question right I would say I'm the I'm probably a cultural Christian okay I was I was brought up as an Anglican and I was baptized and although I think enough my parents also simultaneously sent me to a Jewish nursery school preschool so was Jesus outlawed well Jews have a reputation for being religious too you know yeah no I might have been the only in on Jewish kid at the school I didn't realize so was the thing so but I was just singing Harvicki Gila one day and Jesus outlawed the next you know so that is my upbringing
那你算是宗教信仰者吗?好吧,达尔文三周前刚宣布自己是文化基督徒。对此我的回答是,我可能也是一种文化基督徒。我是在英国国教中长大的,并且受过洗礼。尽管如此,我的父母同时还送我去了一所犹太人的幼儿园。所以耶稣被禁止了吗?犹太人在宗教方面也很有名。是的,我可能是学校里唯一的非犹太孩子,但那时候我并没有意识到这一点。所以有一天我在唱哈维基吉拉,第二天耶稣就被禁止了。这就是我的成长经历。
Paragraph 1:
so so when when Dawkins announced he was a cultural Christian the question that came to my mind right away was okay there's a bunch of things going on there the first is Dawkins proclamation or admission that if you compare different societies and their axiomatic suppositions he would prefer the ones predicated on Christian axiomatic assumptions and I do think those are good ones okay so okay so so so that that's why I asked you the question about why you would consider yourself not a religious person because it seems to me that the essence of it isn't it isn't the statement that you abide by a particular Protestant creed let's say it seems to me much more akin to the notion that you believe that this set of axiomatic presuppositions is like the pronatalist presumption it's it's correct like it's not correct it's gonna lead to a better society a society I think that we prefer to be like I mean if you say like what what what results in the greatest happiness for humanity considering not just the present but all future humans happiness or meaning well which would you pick personally I'd pick meaning because for me meaning leads to happiness but I think that's right but the reverse isn't necessarily the case yeah let's let's just say if you I could say contentment or something but I think if a set of principles is likely to lead to a society thinking of themselves as happy or content or well okay then you want to you want to then principles that lead to the most amount of happiness over time yeah not just the present yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah that iteration elements important yeah um because we have to consider the happiness of future humans as well I think that's where the ethos actually develops is that it's a consequence of iterated games right now but the contentment issue I have a harder time with so you know reward divides into two categories there's satiation reward and there's dopamine incentive reward and they're not the same and it looks to me given what you've already told me about the way that you resolved your existential crisis is that you consistently pick that that's adventure reward fundamentally over contentment now you like your kids and your content with them I presume you're playing but the way that you found meaning in your life is not through contentment it's through adventure that seems to me the case to be the case well it's not adventure for the sake purely of adventure I do like adventure right but for example a lot of people find happiness and contentment with adventure like climbing tall mountains or or hiking along trails doing doing you know exploring the wilderness and that kind of thing and I've never really found personally I found it compelling to stay climb on Everest yeah the you're doing it conceptually conceptually and from a knowledge standpoint yeah knowledge my diverse right so it's adventure it's adventure with a destination in mind right and you already described the destination it's destination is understanding yes to deepen our understanding of the the nature of the universe I think this is I mean one I guess could call it a religion I wouldn't be upset about that but that's that that is my religion for you know like lack of a better way to describe it is it's really it's the religion of curiosity the religion of greater enlightenment and and then and then if you follow that so like that's the goal then what what falls out of that goal what falls out of that goal is to have consciousness expand and scale and and scope so you have so it's why I use scale let's go up to that you want we want more consciousness and I think it's also good to have buried consciousness you know so everyone's not thinking exactly you know those multiple eyes same
在多金斯宣布他是“文化上的基督徒”后,我立即有了一个问题。首先,多金斯的这一声明或承认表明,如果比较不同社会的基本假设,他更偏爱以基督教假设为基础的社会。我认为这些基督教的假设是非常不错的。这就是为什么我会问你为什么认为自己不是一个宗教信仰者的原因。对我来说,这并不是说你遵循某种特定的新教信条,而是更像你相信这种基本假设是正确的,就像支持生育的假设一样。这种假设可能不会绝对正确,但它会引导社会变得更好,一个我们更愿意生活在其中的社会。
比如说,如果你要选择,什么能带给人类最大的幸福,不仅考虑现在,还要考虑未来几代人的幸福或意义,你会选哪个?我个人会选择意义,因为对我来说,意义会带来幸福,我认为这是对的,但反之不一定成立。如果说我们选择那些能让社会认为自己是幸福或满足的原则,那这些原则应在时间长河中带来最多的幸福,而不仅仅是现在。是的,这里存在重复的重要性,因为我们还必须考虑未来人类的幸福。
接着谈到满足的问题,奖励其实分为两类:一种是满足奖励,另一种是多巴胺激励奖励,这两者并不相同。根据你告诉我的你的存在危机的解决方式,你似乎更倾向于选择冒险奖励而非满足奖励。你可能喜欢你的孩子,并在这方面感到满足,但在生活中找到意义的方式却是通过冒险,而非单纯的满足。对你来说,这不仅仅是为了冒险而冒险,尽管你确实喜欢冒险。很多人通过登山或探险感到幸福和满足,而你个人并不觉得去攀登珠穆朗玛峰是有吸引力的。
你的冒险更多是概念上的和知识层面上的冒险,你的目的是为了理解。你已经描述了这一点,你的目标是加深我们对宇宙本质的理解。可以说这是某种宗教,我对此并不反感,但更恰当的描述是,这是一种好奇心的宗教,追求更大启蒙的宗教。追随这个目标,自然会扩展意识的规模和范围。因此,我们希望有更多的意识,而且多样化的意识也是好的,这样不是每个人都在以完全相同的方式思考。
Paragraph 1:
yeah yeah yeah so so I think it's probably good to have multiple religions and have different different perspectives on things and and so so what falls out of that is is we need to take a set of actions that increase the probability that the future will be good for for humanity and that and we want to expand consciousness we want to I think we should increase the population of earth not decrease it and I think that will that will not result in the Hungarians have been successful in that regard by the way they've they've made family policy planning their fundamental concern and that was very wise that was driven in part by a woman named cattle and no vac who used to be president of Hungary she's a very very smart person and they've they've knocked the abortion rate in in hungry down by 38 percent with no compulsion right they have a 12-week limit right hungry
是的是的,所以我认为拥有多种宗教和不同的视角是好的,由此我们需要采取一系列行动,提高人类未来美好的可能性。我们想要扩展意识,我认为我们应该增加地球的人口,而不是减少。匈牙利人在这方面取得了成功,他们把家庭政策规划作为核心关切,这是非常明智的。这部分由匈牙利前总统卡塔琳·诺瓦克推动,她是一个非常聪明的人。他们在没有采取强制措施的情况下,将匈牙利的堕胎率降低了38%,目前匈牙利有一个12周的堕胎限制。
Paragraph 1:
yeah yeah they've increased the proportion of women in the labor force by about 15 percent okay they've knocked the divorce rate down substantially and at minimum they've decreased the decline in the birth rate I don't know if they've actually managed to tilt it back up and hungry yet but they spend about 7 percent of their GDP on family policy right and this ark enterprise we've been building in London made family policy a center point we're trying to bring classic conservatives and liberals together all around the world and you know you're thinking on that natalist front has actually been what would you say has been an input into that okay because I started to notice well I don't know I don't think it was 20 years ago that I'd caught an onto that it was it was it was not that long ago but I knew that there was something terribly wrong with the fact the birth rates have plummeted so terribly in South Korea and Japan I think in South Korea now it's something like 40 percent of men in their 30s are virginal well the version not virgin thing is you know need the handle there but the the fact that I believe the birth rate in South Korea is 0.9 I think right which I think it even went maybe gone down to 0.8 last year or something but that that essentially means that if you fast forward that the population of Korea would decline by 60 percent right necessarily if you have a steady and that assumes over what spent time in fact if that oh it well Koreans are long lived so you won't see that the numbers it won't be as obvious of course you'll just see that there's a very disproportionate number of old people right because they live a long time but for for predicting the future population of any country the simple way to do it is say how many babies were born last year and what is the average lifespan in that country and that and then if if that birth rate if that number of babies stays constant then eventually the old people will die and that will be the population of the country it's very very straightforward right right right so if you look at say Japan which I think had on the order of 800,000 births last year and then you multiply that by the lifespan which is around 84-85 years you get to a population of that's in the sort of 60-70 million range which is a massive decrease from where it is today right right over 100 million well it seems to me the combination of that lack of engagement on the relationship side plus the plummeting birth rate it seems to me to be a primary biological marker of profound demoralization because well yeah I mean people aren't committing to the future or to each other
好的,好吧,他们已经将女性在劳动力中的比例提高了大约15%。此外,他们显著减少了离婚率,并至少减缓了出生率的下降。我不确定他们是否真的设法让匈牙利的出生率回升了,但他们将国内生产总值的约7%用于家庭政策。而且我们在伦敦建立的这个"方舟"项目也把家庭政策作为一个中心点,我们正在尝试将传统保守派和自由派聚集在一起在全球范围内联合起来。你在这个人口增长方面的想法实际上也有所贡献。因为我开始注意到,虽然我不确定是不是20年前就注意到的事情,但的确没那么久,不过我知道出生率急剧下降在韩国和日本是个很大的问题。我认为在韩国,现在30多岁的男性中约有40%是处男。这个处男不处男的问题暂且不说,我相信韩国的出生率是0.9,甚至可能去年已经降到了0.8。这意味着,如果我们快进来看,这样的出生率会导致韩国人口减少60%。当然,这是假设出生率持续不变的情况下。考虑到韩国人的寿命很长,这个变化不会立刻显现出来,因为老年人数会非常不成比例。预测任何国家未来人口的简单方法就是看看去年出生了多少婴儿,再看这个国家的平均寿命。如果出生率保持不变,那么随着老年人死亡,这将成为这个国家的人口总数,非常直观。举个例子,日本去年大概有80万新生婴儿,然后乘以平均寿命84-85岁,你就会得到约6000-7000万的人口数量,这比现在的1亿人有很大下降。总的来说,我认为这种缺乏关系的参与以及出生率的急剧下降,是一种深刻的生物学标志,表明了一种严重的消极情绪。因为人们不再对未来或彼此有所承诺。
Paragraph 1:
yes I mean having a having a kid as a boat for the future if you if you intend to have a child like that that is that means you are you care about the future yeah you believe in the future you believe in the future having a child assuming it's intentional is a you can it's the most optimistic thing yes that's what he could do so well so one of the things I derive from this analysis I've been doing of the Old Testament is that that faith and courage I'll give you an example so when Moses is on the verge of the promised land he sends scouts out to check out Canaan because that's the promise now Canaan is the home of the descendants of Canaan so it's a very specific place mythologically it's okay the place of people who aren't aiming up put it that way all right
是的,我的意思是,如果你打算有个孩子,那就是你在乎未来,你相信未来。拥有一个孩子(假设这是有意的)是最乐观的选择。举个例子,我从对《旧约》的分析中得出这样一个观点,那就是信仰和勇气。当摩西接近应许之地时,他派出侦察兵去考察迦南地,因为那是应许之地。迦南是迦南后代的家园,从神话角度来看,那是一个没有努力向上的人的地方。
Paragraph 2:
okay so the scouts go out to look at the future and they come back in two teams and one team says there's nothing but giants there it's a complete bloody catastrophe you let us out into the desert stupidly we were better off in the tyranny there's no way we're going to survive right and the next scouts or at the other set of scouts Caleb and Joshua come back and say well there's trouble there but if we aim up and we get our act together we can turn this into the promised land okay it's at that point that god condemns Moses to die and Aaron who's the political wing and the earth opens up and swallows up the faithless scouts and it's the people who are led by Caleb and Joshua who has the same name as Christ by the way and that's relevant they're the ones that are led into the promised land okay so what's the meaning of the story well the future is always a challenge and the moral thing to do is to evince faith and courage in the future regardless in some ways it's a weird thing because it's kind of regardless of the data because you can say well look at all the suffering that constitutes life and look at all the potential horrors of the future and certainly people do hesitate about bringing a child into a world like this that's I hear that often yeah yeah
好,侦查员们出去考察未来,分成两队回来。第一队说,那边全是巨人,简直是一场彻底的灾难。你们愚蠢地把我们带到沙漠里,我们在暴政下过得还更好呢,我们根本活不了。而另一队侦查员,迦勒和约书亚,则说,那边有麻烦,但如果我们目标明确,努力奋斗,我们可以把那里变成应许之地。就在这时,神决定让摩西死去,而负责政治事务的亚伦也遭到了惩罚,大地裂开吞噬了那些不信任的侦查员。最终,是由迦勒和约书亚领导的人进入了应许之地。顺便提一下,约书亚和基督同名,这点很重要。那么,这个故事的意义是什么呢?未来总是充满挑战的,而道德上应该做的事情是无论如何都要对未来表现出信心和勇气。在某种程度上,这有点奇怪,因为这似乎与事实无关。你可以说,看看生活中的一切痛苦,再看看未来可能出现的各种恐怖,确实,人们会对把孩子带到这样的世界中感到犹豫,我经常听到这种话,是的,是的。
Paragraph 1:
yeah well and it's weird because if you had to bring a child into the world and you had to pick a time you probably pick this one yes and so obviously everybody who had a child at least by choice in the past did that in spite of the catastrophe of the future but sorry it's a long-winded way of making a point. there's an ethical requirement that's associated with living in the manner that would justify your life even to yourself to have faith and courage in the future no matter what right so it's not a foolishness or or or what defense against death anxiety or foolish superstition that faith it's not that at all it's a kind of courage it's like we're going to make this work yeah we're going to make this work and child a child is a vote in that direction so how does vote for the future yeah yeah yeah how many kids do you have now uh I I have uh 12 12 yeah so you're definitely doing your part yeah what do you like about kids what do you like about kids I mean there's a there's an older batch in the younger okay so it's quite a quite big difference a little x is over there he's the eldest of the youngest he's four um and my my older boys are 20 and 17 turning 18 shortly so big big gap so what did you like about having kids well I think kids are delightful why what's delightful about them because they get a bad rap man so what did you find delightful about them um I mean I think you we are I mean most people that's true to people are you know I'll gonna love their kids and it's like a little little loved one yeah yeah that's a good deal and they also want to love you they do kids if you give them the chance oh they do they're the only people you'll ever meet in your life who want nothing more than to have the best possible relationship they could have with anyone with you that's a good deal that's good deal um and I think there's you know like frankly if if we weren't biologically inclined to love our children and to want to nurture them and find reward um we would long ago have ceased to exist
好的,这是翻译成中文的内容,尽量保持了原文的意思和易读性:
是的,这很奇怪,因为如果要把一个孩子带到世界上,并且你必须选择一个时间,你可能会选择现在这个时间。所以很明显,过去那些有选择地生孩子的人都是在面对未来的不确定性和灾难的情况下做出的决定。抱歉,我绕了一大圈才说到重点。我们有一种道德责任,那就是以一种可以让自己也觉得人生有意义的方式生活,对未来要有信心和勇气,无论未来如何变得糟糕。所以这不是愚蠢或者对死亡焦虑的防御,也不是愚昧的迷信。这是一种勇气,就像是“我们会让这一切变得有意义”。所以生孩子就是对未来投下的一票。
你现在有几个孩子了?我有12个孩子。那你确实尽了自己的责任。那么你喜欢孩子什么呢?我有一批年长的孩子,还有一批年幼的,所以年龄差距很大。小X就在那边,他是年幼孩子中年龄最大的,四岁。而我的大儿子们已经20岁了,还有一个快满18岁了,所以年龄差距很大。
那么你喜欢有孩子的什么地方呢?我觉得孩子们很可爱。为什么他们可爱呢?因为大家通常对孩子的评价都很差。那么你觉得孩子哪一点特别讨人喜欢呢?其实,我认为大多数人都会爱自己的孩子,就像对一个小小的挚爱一样,对吧?这是一个很好的成就。而且孩子们也同样会爱你,只要你给他们机会。他们是你生命中唯一一种完全希望能与你建立最好的关系的人。这是一个很好的成就。而且说实话,如果我们在生物学上没有被设计成爱孩子、希望抚养他们并从中得到满足,我们早就灭绝了。
Paragraph 1:
I mean you can take say um I don't know a wolf or a wildcat or some creature that that a Wolverine some creature that would normally be very aggressive and when that creature has babies the mother nurtures them and and is tender and and caring um so you know there's we are uh we we've evolved to love our offspring it's it's a natural thing um and I think people I mean even if somebody's sort of taken somewhat of a hedonistic approach to life I think there's an appeal even on the hedonism side to say that well would you not you'll actually find it very rewarding I think that's good that's a good appeal and it's one that's why I asked you question it's a solid it's a solid argument uh you know for the hedonists out there and and not all hedonists are bad I'm gonna have friends who are hedonistic and they're very good people but they uh and I've actually convinced some of them to have kids which I'm happy to say and they've thanked me afterwards like I'm not a good person who I've said you know you surely have kids you won't regret it and not one person has said they regret it ever right so that means many people have kids friends so that's good yeah they love it
我想说的是,比如你可以拿一只狼、一只野猫或一只通常会很凶猛的动物,例如一只狼獾,当这些动物有了宝宝时,母亲会养育它们,表现得非常温柔和关爱。所以,我们天生就会爱自己的孩子,这是很自然的事情。我认为,即使有些人有点享乐主义的生活态度,他们也会觉得养育孩子是非常有意义的,这是一个很有吸引力的事情。这也是为什么我会问你这个问题,因为这是一个很有力的论点。并不是所有享乐主义者都是坏人,我有一些享乐主义的朋友,他们是非常好的人。实际上,我也成功说服了一些朋友去生孩子,他们后来都很感谢我。我可以说,没有一个人对我说过他们后悔生孩子,所以这意味着很多人觉得养育孩子是很好的,他们很爱自己的孩子。
Paragraph 2:
well when when I was working in Boston I had a very busy job and I pretty much stopped doing everything except my job and spending time with my kids but if I had to rank those in importance then spending time with my kids yeah that was better and the reason it was more important was because it was partly because it was actually better like if your kids are capable of a modicum of pro-social behavior which is pretty much your choice although temperament makes a difference there isn't anyone more entertaining to associate with than little kids because partly I think it's because they're not as courtically inhibited so they're my daughter has a new there's no filter they're just say what they think well and they you can see what they see through their eyes too so you're all filtered in and you know you see assumptions everywhere and then a child comes along and think oh yeah that's an amazing thing and I'm forgotten all about that you know I replaced my perception with my memory right and so children reopen that yeah that's also why I think it says in the gospels that unless you become like a little child you can't enter the kingdom of heaven because you have to you have to make contact with that untrammeled perception that existed before you ossified your perceptions into your foolish and often nihilistic habits
第二段:
在波士顿工作时,我的工作非常繁忙,我几乎把所有事情都停了下来,除了工作和陪孩子。但如果要排名的话,陪孩子显然更重要。这不仅仅因为陪孩子实际更好,如果你的孩子能够表现出一些社会适应行为(这很大程度上取决于你,虽然性格也有一些影响),那和小孩子在一起是最有趣的,因为他们不像成年人那样有所抑制。我女儿有一种新的视角,她们没有过滤器,想到什么就说什么。你也可以通过她们的眼睛看到世界。成年人总是习惯性地带着预设的观念,而孩子们会让你重新审视世界,让你感叹“哦,这真的很奇妙,我早就把这忘了”。我们的感知被记忆所取代,而孩子们可以重新开启这种感知。这或许也是福音书中提到的“除非变成像小孩子一样,否则无法进入天国”的原因。因为你必须重新接触到那种未经磨灭的感知,那在你将感知僵化为愚蠢且常常是虚无主义习惯前的状态。
Paragraph 1:
but I mean so point you're cascading it earlier I do think that's uh and I consider myself an environmentalist but I think the environmental movement has gone too far and you know it's supposed to worship nature you know well it's gone too far in the sense that the that that in its extreme you you start viewing humans as a blight on this the face of the earth that turns out to be a real problem yeah mostly implicitly but sometimes explicitly and if if you internalize that then you start thinking AI systems for example yeah I'm somewhat worried that the AI systems would be I mean you could say like what bersh ways that AI could go bad would train one on Paul Erlich's work and see what happens that would be hell yeah yeah well we have plenty of political systems that have already exactly done that yeah that would be hell that's exactly right that would be hell so yeah that's a disturbing thought that's for sure so so but just going back to the you know how can something which is I think generally it sort of starts out with good intentions but ultimately sort of um pave the door to hell is is environmentalism in the extreme yeah that starts to view human humans as bad humans as a load on the earth that the earth can't sustain this is these are completely false um yeah well it's it's interesting that the economists and the biologists tend to separate into separate segregated camps on that front because the biologists tend to be malthusian and that makes them really bad biologists yeah so there I think it was I can never remember the philosopher who said this but it's a brilliant observation
但我的意思是,就像你之前提到的,我确实认为这很重要。我认为自己是一个环保主义者,但我也认为环保运动已经走得太远了。说实话,崇拜自然本来是件好事,但现在已经变得过头了。到了极端情况下,你会开始把人类视为地球上的祸患,这真正成了一个问题——基本是隐含的,但有时也会明确表达出来。如果你接受这种观点,你甚至会开始考虑,比如说,人工智能系统可能会怎样。我有点担心这些人工智能系统,如果你让它们学习类似保罗·埃利希的作品,会发生什么呢?那简直是地狱一样的景象。我们已经有足够多的政治系统做了类似的事情,那真是地狱般的景象。确实,这个想法令人不安。所以,回到最初的问题,一个本来出发点是好的运动怎么会最终带来地狱般的结果呢?这就是极端的环保主义,它开始把人类看作是地球的负担,地球无法承受的人类负担。这些观点是完全错误的。有趣的是,经济学家和生物学家在这个问题上往往分成两个阵营。生物学家往往是马尔萨斯主义者,这使他们成为糟糕的生物学家。我记不住是哪位哲学家说过这一点,但这是一个精辟的观察。
Paragraph 2:
is that we evolved thought so that our thoughts could die instead of us and that's actually this it's great it's a great line and it's actually the case because the prefrontal cortex evolved so that we could produce disposable avatars right so I in our conversation what I'm really doing in our conversation is I'm offering you a potential avatar of myself for the future and I'm saying why don't you see if you can kill this thing now so I don't have to act it out and die and that's part of the right exactly and so and we've extended that with games for example right we've externalized that and so the reason the biologists are wrong is because they don't actually understand the qualitative difference between human beings and other creatures is that we can let our thoughts die instead of us we sub so that's substitutionary death that's a good way of thinking about it right and that means that the malthusian limits they don't reply to us in the same way and so the economists got that right it's like we can innovate our way out of scarcity in fact I don't like the idea of natural resource for example I think that's a Marxist notion natural resource it's like air okay I'll give you air everything else fresh water that is not a natural resource and kerosene or fossil fuel just laid in the ground until like 1850 because nobody could figure out what the hell to do with it so so what that implies is that it's something I think it's a religious ethos that's the natural resource the religious ethos that allows us to orient to the future to be community oriented and to and to be trustworthy
我们进化出了思维,这样我们的思想可以替我们“死亡”,而不是我们自己。这是一句很棒的话,而且确实如此,因为前额皮质进化让我们能够创造出可舍弃的虚拟化身。在我们的对话中,我实际上是在为你提供一个未来潜在的自我化身,并请求你现在就尝试杀死它,这样我就不必亲身经历和死亡。比如,通过游戏我们把这个过程外化了。生物学家不理解这一点,所以他们错了,他们不了解人类与其他生物之间的本质区别就在于我们可以让思想死亡而不是我们自己。这是一种替代性死亡,这样一来,马尔萨斯极限对我们就不再适用了。经济学家明白这一点,我们可以通过创新摆脱资源短缺。实际上,我不喜欢“自然资源”这个概念,我认为那是马克思主义的观点。就像空气,好的,我可以接受空气这个概念,但其他的,比如淡水,不是自然资源。煤油或化石燃料在1850年之前一直埋在地下,因为没有人知道怎么利用它们。所以这意味着,它背后是一种宗教精神,这种精神让我们能够面向未来,注重社区并值得信任。
Paragraph 1:
yeah well okay I mean at least some of these things one can actually apply physics or you know one can analyze in a scientific way to say is how many humans can sustain without what most people consider to be significant environmental damage and I think if you actually do the numbers I think it's potentially 10 times the population we have today right so how did you arrive how did you arrive at that figure I mean obviously you've put a fair bit of thought into this and this is a very counter cultural proposition since the mid 1960s the moral proclamation has been that there are too many people on the planet and that is I think Paul Ehrlich was the ultimate what exponent of that particular analysis was very unscientific he based it on some visit to Delhi I believe right yeah right it's sort of visceral repugnance yeah wrapped himself in science and produced nonsense so I mean you just say like okay well how much land area do we need to grow food yeah how much would that encroach on natural habitats what's the actual food growing potential given especially if we got good at it right and we are actually quite good at it yeah right right right and is there enough water well actually there's plenty of water because earth is mostly water at 70 percent water buying that's convenient by so far yeah desalination is actually very inexpensive so there's really not a shortage of water there's there's not a shortage of of sort of service area and and energy to to book to to grow food and there's no shortage of computational time and increasingly there's no shortage right and that's energy dependent to some degree yeah but the energy problem is solvable very solvable yeah
好吧,我的意思是,至少有些问题我们实际上可以用物理学来解释,或者说可以用科学的方式来分析,看看在不造成大多数人认为的显著环境损害的情况下,地球能承载多少人口。我认为如果你真的去计算这个数字,我认为地球今天所能承载的人口可能是我们现在的10倍。那么你是如何得出这个数字的呢?显然你对此进行了相当多的思考,这是一个非常反主流文化的观点。自1960年代中期以来,道德宣言一直是地球上人太多了。我想保罗·埃利希(Paul Ehrlich)是这种分析的最终代表,但他的分析非常不科学,我相信他是基于他对德里的某次访问得出的结论,是一种本能的反感。嗯,他用科学包装自己的观点,但实际上是胡说八道。所以你只需问问:我们需要多少土地来种植食物?这会占用多少自然栖息地?特别是如果我们擅长种植食物,我们确实在这方面很擅长,有多少食物可以种植出来?有没有足够的水?实际上,地球上有大量的水,因为地球主要是水,约70%的面积是水,所以这是一个便利条件。海水淡化其实很便宜,所以实际上没有水资源短缺的问题。没有土地和能源短缺的问题可以去种植食物,而且计算资源也越来越不短缺。当然这在某种程度上依赖于能源,但是能源问题是可以解决的,非常可以解决的。
Paragraph 2:
so let's turn to let's turn if you don't mind to practice some more practical solutions I'd like to I want to let's start a little bit more with the AI issue with open AI because I'd like to explore that and then I'd like to talk about what you're doing with SpaceX I kind of like to walk through your companies and and I want to see how you're integrating your vision across them as well so let's start with with open AI now you you were you started talking about that story with Larry Page you were entirely interested in that I was personally worried about AI safety because well his his view is that we'll all be essentially upload our minds to computers and and then humans there won't really be a need for humans and I'm and I thought that was I was like what team are you on Larry? I'm part of the humans there right right what team are you on and I said we really need to make sure humanity thrives and grows and and and then he called me a species for saying that yeah yeah so I'm like well I I guess I am you know pro-human what are you right right right that's the question yeah if you're not pro-human that's not nothing that's right that's something else you're pro-sumpties it's it's I think it's a crazy thing to not be pro-human I mean if humans are not going to be on team human who is so that was the final straw really and I was like okay we really need some new AI company to serve as a counterbalance to Google because at the time they had almost all of the great AI researchers they had massive computing power massive financial resources and it was very much a unipolar world with respect to AI right and a unipolar world controlled by Larry Page and and who you know had I thought somewhat misanthropic views about humans or at least certainly insufficiently concerned about the what what might happen to the humans so that was the basis for creating open the eye now
第2段:
那么我们来谈谈一些更实际的解决方案吧。如果你不介意的话,我想先从人工智能(AI)问题入手,具体是关于 OpenAI 的问题,因为我很想探讨这一点,然后再聊聊你在 SpaceX 的工作。我希望能逐一了解你的公司,并且看看你如何在这些公司中融入你的愿景。先从 OpenAI 开始吧。之前你提到过拉里·佩奇的故事,你对此非常感兴趣,而我个人则担心 AI 的安全性。佩奇的观点是,未来我们可以将自己的意识上传到电脑中,因此人类将不再需要存在了。而我对此的反应是,拉里,你到底站在哪一边?我是站在“人类”这边的,对吧?我们需要确保人类能够繁荣发展,但他却因此称我为“物种主义者”。于是我心想,好吧,我确实是支持人类的,那你呢?如果你不支持人类,那你支持什么呢?不支持人类是很荒谬的事情,如果人类都不支持自己,那谁会呢?这成为了压倒我的最后一根稻草,我意识到我们需要一个新的 AI 公司来制衡 Google。当时 Google 拥有几乎所有顶尖的 AI 研究人员,巨大的计算能力和雄厚的财力,在 AI 领域是处于单极主导地位的,而这个单极世界由拉里·佩奇掌控,而我认为他对人类抱有一定的敌意,或者至少是对人类的未来缺乏足够的关注。这便是创建 OpenAI 的基础。
Paragraph 1:
yeah that's actually a real problem like insufficiently concerned with the humans that's a problem yes and has all the AI power so yeah right that that would that trouble me and so I thought well what would be the opposite of of Google would be a non-profit that is open source so you can see what's going on not a black box yeah and and that was not sort of what wasn't forced by sort of mock incentives to make as much money as possible so opening I was started as a as a non-profit open source and the open and opening I refers to open so yeah yeah yeah so why were you concerned about the profit mode of warping things and at that point well at least at least at least well I think this perhaps is particularly a challenge for publicly traded companies you just get sued if you don't maximize profits you know the shareholders you'll get a shareholder shareholder class action lawsuit yeah that will force you to maximize profits yeah so you thought that so that you thought a for-profit system might tilt the development of AI in directions that were short-term profit motivated instead of cracking the fundamental problem something like that yeah like look I could be wrong about a lot of these things but that was that's what I thought at the time and and I wanted to create something that I thought would be the polar opposite of Google yeah which is obviously a for-profit and close source centralized
是的,这其实是一个真正的问题,比如对人类关注不够,这是一个问题,而且拥有所有AI的力量。所以,是的,这会让我感到不安。因此我思考,什么会是谷歌的反面呢?会是一个开源的非盈利组织,这样你可以看到发生了什么,而不是一个黑箱。而且这种模式不会被赚钱的动机所驱使。所以,OpenAI开始作为一个非盈利开源组织,名字中的“Open”就指的是开源。是的,是的,那时为什么你对利润模式会扭曲事情感到担心呢?至少,至少,嗯,我认为这对上市公司来说尤其具有挑战性,如果你不最大化利润,你会被起诉,股东们会发起股东集体诉讼,迫使你最大化利润。所以,你认为一个营利系统可能会让AI的发展倾向于短期利润动机,而不是解决根本问题,对吧?是这样的。我可能在很多事情上都是错的,但那是当时我的想法,我想创建一些与谷歌截然相反的东西,显然谷歌是一个营利、闭源、集中的公司。
Paragraph 2:
yeah centralized and you don't get to see what's going on and that was the basis for opening I and we were you know recruited a lot of key people I was instrumental in recruiting Elias Satskaya who without him opening up would not be where it is today Elias yeah Elias Satskaya Ilya pretty famous guy in AI and Ilya is also the guy that I thought at opening I who had the strongest moral compass had the most about doing the right thing so it was troubling to see him get ousted from open AI you know he he sort of was part of a coup to exit Sam Alton the CEO yeah right and when that that coup somehow got turned around and and then Ilya was was in fact exited from open AI and opening is now really trying to maximize profit what happened I saw I'm not sure like and and I'm considering considering your legal action here to say like how is it possible that a that that an organization is founded with the goal of being open source non-profit and I provided almost all the money in the beginning almost 50 million dollars to get it going with a no stock I have no stock or control or anything and I how is it possible to go from there to a company that's now allegedly worth over a hundred billion dollars and is it seems to be maximizing profit and is it's a challenge shift and it's not an open source right so that's very different than the original rule I would say that this is like is it possibly more different and I'm not sure how you could be more different so so so so I mean this would be like let's say you let's say you you know fund fund a non-profit to preserve some part of the Amazon rain bars yeah but instead that nonprofit becomes a lumber company right right and chops down the forest and tells it you would think that it was that seems
第二段:
是的,集中化后你看不到内部发生的情况,这也是我们创建OpenAI的初衷之一。我们招募了很多关键人物,其中Elias Satskaya的招募是我推动的。没有他的帮助,OpenAI不会有今天的成就。Elias Satskaya,Ilya在AI领域非常有名,他也是我认为在OpenAI中最具道德指南针、最注重做正确事情的人。因此看到他被OpenAI排挤出局让我感到困扰。他实际上参与了驱逐CEO Sam Altman的行动,但那个行动最后被逆转了,结果Ilya反而被排挤出局。而现在的OpenAI似乎正在努力最大化利润。我看不懂的是,这个组织最初成立的目标是开源和非盈利,我自己也在早期投资了将近5000万美元,但我没有股票、也没有控制权或其他权利。怎么会从一个以开源、非盈利为目标的组织变成一个现在据说市值超过一千亿美元、全力追求利润的公司呢?这是不是一种根本性的转变,完全背离了我们最初的宗旨?你可以想象一下,假设你资助一个非盈利组织来保护亚马逊雨林的某个部分,却发现这个非盈利组织变成了一家伐木公司,砍伐森林然后出售木材。这种情况看起来似乎太不可思议了。
Paragraph 3:
are you shocked are you shocked by what happened is that it yes I'm I'm concerned about it and I have voiced those concerns over the years and you know I think it's like what what the hell happened I don't know I don't know I still don't know but what do you what do you think happened like I mean I look I don't want to push you obviously but I'm curious it's like how did that happen it doesn't make sense to me I would like an answer that question too okay so are you addressing that with grok yeah so maybe maybe that's the solution rather like right sure the last thing you need is another like immense legal battle I mean I'm I'm still considering a legal challenge to at least perhaps they have the court explain to me how an organization that I funded for for one purpose can do the diametrically opposed purpose and that that's okay and become a full profit I please just show me the trail of the breadcrumbs I see I see I want to do that because I'm confused and and and and this yeah well it sounds like it should be illegal if I'm missing something here well it sounds at least like it should be understood at least right at least that what the hell happened here yes you don't want that to happen especially given what's at stake
你对此感到震惊吗?你对发生的事情感到震惊吗?没错,我是很关心这件事的,多年来我也表达了这些担忧。我觉得,就像是,到底发生了什么?我不知道,我仍然不知道。不过你觉得发生了什么?我是说,我不想强迫你,但是我很好奇,这事怎么会发生的?对我来说完全不合理。我也想知道答案。好的,你有向Grok提出这个问题吗?也许这就是解决办法,对吧?当然,最后你要的不是再一次巨大的法律纠纷。我还考虑对这事发起一个法律挑战,至少让法庭向我解释一下,一个我资助的组织为什么会做出完全相反的事情,这样合理吗?成为一个盈利的组织?请给我一个线索。我明白,我想这么做,因为我很困惑。是的,如果我理解正确,这听起来应该是违法的。如果我错过了什么,至少应该弄明白对吗?至少,明白到底发生了什么。是的,尤其是在事关重大时,你不希望这种事情发生。
Paragraph 1:
yes yes exactly opening eyes the leader in AI yeah so okay so and I'm somewhat worried that's that that they've ingested the work mind virus and the training you can see some of that in the in the output results we obviously saw that with Google Gemini as well to just absurd degrees yeah that was really quite the miracle where you know it's it's a draw draw a picture of the founding positive of the United States and it's a group of diverse women yeah this is a historical event this rewriting history yep
第1段:
是的,是的,没错,AI领域的领导者已经开眼界了。不过,我有点担心他们被某种思维病毒侵蚀了,从训练结果中可以看出来。我们显然在谷歌的Gemini项目中也看到了类似的事情,到了荒唐的地步。真的很不可思议,例如他们让AI画一幅美国建国的图,而结果是画了一群多元化的女性。是的,这简直是在重写历史。
Paragraph 2:
yeah no that was really something that was really something to see that was like a jaw on the floor moment jaw on the full moment and wow you know and then and then asking questions like is you know which ones worse misgendering Caitlyn Jenner yeah yeah well thermonuclear warfare and it said misgendering Clayton Caitlyn Jenner like this this yeah that's a priority problem how powerful do you want this AI to get with with with beliefs like that that's and I should yeah to Caitlyn Jenner's credit yes Jenner said I would really much prefer to be misgendered than have nuclear war
第二段:
是的,那真的是一件令人震惊的事情。我的下巴都快掉在地上了。当时我在想,问一些问题,比如说:你觉得哪件事情更糟糕,是用错Caitlyn Jenner的性别,还是发生核战争?结果答案是用错Caitlyn Jenner的性别,这真的是一个优先性的问题。你想让这个AI达到什么样的强大程度,以至于会有这种观念?不过我要说,Caitlyn Jenner也有她的立场,她说:“我宁愿被用错性别,也不希望发生核战争。”
Paragraph 3:
well that's good that's good yeah there's a limit to all forms good for Caitlyn that's quite quite sensible yes yes thank god for that yes performing better than the AI yes but you and and while it's sort of perhaps funny and ridiculous at this stage imagine if the AI is not that funny I mean it's semi-funny at this stage but it's the more powerful that AI gets it could decide that that is not merely that it wants to force that outcome and simply say that it eradicated its performative contradictions right yes act out what it believes oh yes that's highly likely society is insufficiently diverse according to his programming and will simply force that diversity by whatever means it's necessary
嗯,是的,这很好,这很好,是的,任何形式都有其局限性。Caitlyn做得很好,这很明智,是的,是的,感谢上帝,是的,她比AI表现得更好。不过,当我们可能觉得这有点搞笑和荒谬的时候,想象一下,如果AI不那么搞笑呢?我意思是,现在它还算有点搞笑,但随着AI变得越来越强大,它可能会觉得这不仅是想要强制实现某个结果,而是直接说它消除了它的表演矛盾,对吧?是的,去实施它所相信的东西。哦,是的,这很有可能。根据它的程序,社会的多样性还不够,它就会采取任何必要手段来强制实现这种多样性。
Paragraph 4:
okay so let's that's good that's good on the AI side for now like I don't think you and I would make it in that scenario no I don't think so yeah so how about we talk about Trump for a minute do you the first thing there's there's one question about Trump that I really wanted to ask you so do you are you shocked at the fact that you're donating a substantial amount of money to facilitate Trump's election is that something you would have believed in the realm of possibility say five years ago well and I want to diversify what's been reported in the media is simply not true okay okay I'm not donating $45 billion a month to Trump right and no no what I have done is I've I have created a pack or super pack what do you want to call it yeah which you know I simply call it the America pack and the you want to tell everybody who's listening what a pack is because people it's a political action committee
好的,那么现在关于人工智能方面我们已经讨论得差不多了,我觉得在那种情况下你和我都撑不住,不是吗?是呀,不会的。那么我们聊聊特朗普吧,有一个问题我一直想问你,你对于自己捐了一大笔钱来支持特朗普的选举感到震惊吗?比如说五年前的你,会认为这有可能吗?嗯,我想澄清一下媒体报道的不实信息。我并没有每个月捐45亿美元给特朗普。实际上,我创建了一个超级政治行动委员会(超级PAC),我称它为“美国PAC”。你要不要向听众解释一下什么是PAC,因为很多人不了解,它是一个政治行动委员会。
Paragraph 5:
yeah it's an organization it's sort of a legal entity that can receive funding that's funding can then be used to help with political campaigns yeah okay okay and how does that differ from a direct donation there are specific limits on direct donations to candidates and the pack system is is a way of putting a political structure in place that sort of runs parallel with the political with the with the formal political system and so yeah you can donate money directly to candidates that amount is fairly small yeah then there's and you can donate a lot more money to um a political action committee or super pack there are various rules that govern the operation of packs and super packs but that's it it certainly allows for a lot more money in the system than would otherwise be possible right right and these are used to be clear on the democrat and republican side
是的,它是一个组织,可以说是一种法律实体,能够接受资助。这些资金可以用来帮助政治竞选。好的,好的,那这和直接捐款有什么不同呢?直接捐款给候选人是有具体限制的,而政治行动委员会(PAC)系统是一种设置在政治体系并行运作的结构。所以,你可以直接捐款给候选人,但金额相对较小。然后,你可以捐更多的钱给一个政治行动委员会(PAC)或超级政治行动委员会(Super PAC)。关于PAC和超级PAC的运作,有各种规则,但确实这种系统允许进入政治体系的资金比其他方式要多得多。是的,是的,这些系统在民主党和共和党两边都在使用。
Paragraph 6:
yes um and um I actually think that so it's an open playing field on the pack side yes yeah what are you hoping to accomplish with this and what's the pack called it's called the america pack america pack yeah it's it's very easy to remember it's very easy to remember and it's it's actually it's not meant to be um sort of a hyper-partisan pack it's it's actually the the core principles of of this america pack are intent is to promote the principles that um made america great in the first place so I wouldn't say that I'm say for example maga of make america great again I I think america is great um I'm more m-a-g make america greater uh and uh and and there's there's some um you know core pillars uh for core values that have I think made america great um could you elucidate those
是的,嗯,我其实认为这是一个开放的竞争场地,是的。你希望通过这个组织实现什么目标,这个组织叫什么名字?它叫“美国组织”(America Pack)。对,很容易记住。其实,这不是一个极端党派的组织。美国组织的核心原则是为了推广那些让美国伟大的原则。所以,我不会说我是“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)的支持者,我认为美国已经很伟大了。我更倾向于“让美国更伟大”(MAG)。有一些核心价值观,我认为它们使美国变得伟大。你能解释一下这些核心价值观吗?
Paragraph 1:
yeah yeah yeah so yeah so um you know one of them is being a meritocracy or um yeah okay as much as much of a meritocracy yes as much of a meritocracy as possible such that you get ahead as a function of your hard work and your skill um and nothing else yeah um which is um you know why I would be opposed to for for example things like d-e-i uh Adrian worldridge documented the fact that the alternative to meritocracy historically is nepotism and dynasty absolutely it's not it's not equity it's not equity correct it's nepotism and dynasty right right
是的,是的,所以嗯,其中一个原因是追求一种精英治理,或者说,嗯,尽量做到精英治理。是的,尽可能多地实现精英治理,这样你就能凭借自己的努力和技能取得成功,而不是依靠其他因素。嗯,这也是为什么我反对像多元化、公平和包容(DEI)之类的东西。Adrian Wooldridge 记录了历史上精英治理的替代方案是裙带关系和世袭制,绝对不是公平,不是公平的,正确,是裙带关系和世袭制。对,对。
Paragraph 2:
so that's very much worth knowing okay yes meritocracy has its price because it's a severe judge but the alternative is nepotism and aristocracy so or dynasty okay so meritocracy what do you know you know america it's not like america has been purely meritocracy but it has been a more of a meritocracy than any other place right right which is which is good that's good that's good which I regard as good yeah uh so uh promoting um meritocracy promoting um a freedom you know freedom to operate um meaning like the least amount of of of government intervention possible you know we want and and this is I think important to fight as because the the national tendency over time sort of almost like entropy is that uh government the the hand of government gets heavier every year yep um the the laws and regulations accumulate every year and these laws and regulations are immortal right right
那么,这非常值得了解。好吧,是的,精英主义有它的代价,因为它是一个苛刻的评判者,但另一种选择是裙带关系和贵族制度,或者说王朝统治。好的,那么,精英主义,你知道的,美国并不是完全的精英主义,但它比其他任何地方都更接近精英主义,对吧,对吧,这很好,我认为这是好的。所以,提倡精英主义,提倡自由,就是尽量减少政府干预,我认为这是重要的,因为从长远来看,几乎像熵一样,政府的手会变得越来越重,每年都会有越来越多的法律和法规,而这些法律和法规是永存的。对,对。
Paragraph 3:
so that's the evil uncle of the king a very very old story very old story the Egyptians were wrestling with that problem 4 000 years ago right yeah so you have to have some you have to really have to take an active role in reducing the number of laws and regulations otherwise as more and more those regulations are passed eventually everything becomes illegal right right um and you start getting into these Orwellian situations where then everyone's poor and miserable well where where action A is illegal and action B is illegal and there isn't anything you can do that is legal right right um so you know take an example of of um uh to give you an example of some some low-fare that was leveled against SpaceX for example we were told for many years that we could not hire anyone who was not a permanent right yeah yeah yeah they had to be well so SpaceX develops advanced rocket technology which is considered um uh an advanced weapons technology because it's it's a core part of like intercontinental ballistic missiles
第3段:
所以这就是国王邪恶的叔叔的故事,一个非常非常古老的故事。埃及人4000年前就在处理这个问题了,对吧?所以你必须积极减少法律和法规的数量,否则随着更多法规的通过,最终一切都会变得非法。你就会进入一种《1984》式的情境,所有人都变得贫穷和痛苦。举个例子,比如说,SpaceX多年来被告知,我们不能雇用不是永久居民的人,而SpaceX开发的是先进的火箭技术,这被认为是一种先进的武器技术,因为它是洲际弹道导弹的核心部分。
Paragraph 1:
yeah so there are only a handful of things in the sort of highest level of weapon technology and rocket technology is one of those because we could deliver a payload and basically bomb anywhere on earth right from anywhere on earth so um so we were i was told no in certain terms by the government that if we hired anyone who is not a permanent resident of the United States uh that you have either green card or a citizen that i would go to prison oh yeah because the presumption if somebody's not a permanent resident is that they will leave the United States and take the rocket technology from SpaceX to potentially countries that would cause harm to the United States right right pretty you know solid reasoning anything um and then um a few years ago the Biden administration decided to sue SpaceX for failing to hire asylum seekers right right yeah i remember that i remember that so we're told on the one side that uh if we hire anyone who's not a permanent resident resident we we we go to prison now we're told um if we don't hire asylum seekers who are not not asylum not people who've been granted asylum seekers seekers they ask buyers to asylum they're therefore not a permanent resident but if you don't hire them we also go to prison
对啊,所以在最高级别的武器技术中只有少数几项,火箭技术就是其中之一,因为我们可以从地球上的任何地方投送有效载荷,基本上可以轰炸地球上的任何地方。所以,政府明确告诉我,如果我们雇用任何不是美国永久居民的人,比如持有绿卡或公民身份的人,我就会进监狱。因为如果某人不是永久居民,假设是他们会离开美国,并将SpaceX的火箭技术带到可能对美国构成威胁的国家,这个理由还是很充分的。
然而,几年前拜登政府决定起诉SpaceX,因为我们没有雇用寻求庇护者。我记得这件事,所以我们一方面被告知,如果雇用了不是永久居民的人,就会进监狱;而现在如果我们不雇用寻求庇护者,他们还不是获得庇护的人,只是申请庇护者,不是永久居民,如果不雇用他们,我们也会进监狱。
Paragraph 2:
right well the purpose of being damned if you do and damned if you don't is to make damn sure that you're damned correct right right so that's a kind of outside i mean that that seemed to be insane and unfair um and uh and and and why did the Biden administration because they can only process they can only do so many big cases per year there's a finite number they can yeah yeah why would the justice department of of all the injustices that occur pick this as one of the biggest cases yeah why why do you think well i think they probably had a uh i don't know there was some law say i think it was it was a what do you think about the relationship to you well i don't know all the things but this is before supporting trump or anything like that yeah in fact i i you know supported bydon and and before that hillary and before that abama so right that's why i was asking if this comes as a sharp you know i don't know if it could just be random it could be um like they didn't tell us uh you know why pick us why why why do you do such a crazy lawsuit um random's a bad act even if it is random that's still bad so it's still it's still bad that's just a marker of incompetence but if it's not random well it seems to be highly unlikely to be
第二段:
对,你要做也不是,不做也不是的目的,就是要确保你无论如何都会受到责难,对吧?这听起来既荒唐又不公平。那么,为什么拜登政府会选择处理这个案件呢?他们每年只能处理有限数量的大案子啊。那么,为什么司法部在所有不公正的事情中,挑中了这一个作为最大案件之一呢?为什么你觉得是这样?我想,他们可能有一些法律依据。我不知道全部细节,但这和支持特朗普没有关系。我实际上支持拜登,在那之前还支持希拉里,再之前是奥巴马。所以我才问,这是否让你感到震惊。我不知道,也许这只是随机选择,但即使是随机的,这也是不好的表现,这表明了不称职。但如果这不是随机的,那看起来就更不太可能了。
Paragraph 3:
yes and and also why why attack space x and not say bowing or larky so um i think part of it might be that uh space x is not unionized um and the democratic party in the u.s is fundamentally controlled by the unions so that i'm speculating here but since since we're not unionized we're i think a very happy workforce um and uh you know i'm out there on the out there on the factory floor i don't see if people people are happy it's it's a good vibe um well they're engaged in something ridiculously exciting it's cool minimum well you know that's not nothing you know people can go a long ways if they're if they're part of a project that's well aimin at mars let's say that's definitely aiming up so that's really exciting that's a real opportunity for people yeah what do you think of trump well i mean i i'm not gonna you know i i i don't sort of subscribe to cults of personality yeah so for me it's really just um you know we've got a choice of administrations and we we have to pick one yeah um and uh you know i think both that there are flaws on both sides what do you think his flaws are um and he's a complicated person and i've been trying to suss him out and figure him out because some of the things that look like flaws might be advantages in disguise like he seems to me to be pretty good at standing up to psychopathic bullies for example sure and that's kind of a useful skill and it's not easy you have to be a bit of a monster to manage that and it isn't obvious to me how many of the idio even the divisive idiosyncrasies of trump are the mirror image of his capacity to stand up to bullies and that's a tough call man
第三段翻译:
是的,顺便说一下,为什么攻击 SpaceX 而不是比如波音或洛克希德·马丁呢?嗯,我想部分原因可能是 SpaceX 没有工会,而美国的民主党基本上是由工会控制的。我只是在猜测,但是因为我们没有工会,我认为这是一个非常快乐的工作环境,我常去工厂车间看,大家很开心,气氛很好。他们参与的是一些极其激动人心的项目,至少这很酷。这不是一无是处,你知道,如果人们能参与一个旨在火星的项目,那绝对是一个巨大的激励,这是一个真正的机会。你对特朗普有什么看法?嗯,我不会崇拜个人崇拜,对我来说,这只是我们有一组选举选项,我们不得不选择一个。我觉得双方都有缺陷。你认为他的缺陷是什么?他是一个复杂的人,我一直在试图了解他,因为有些看起来像缺点的地方可能是隐藏的优点。比如,他在面对心理上有问题的霸凌者时表现得相当不错。这是一种有用的技能,但也并不容易,你需要有一些“怪物”的特质来应对这种情况。而且,对我来说,特朗普的某些古怪行为甚至分裂行为可能是他对抗霸凌者能力的镜像。这真是一个艰难的判断。
Paragraph 1:
but so you've obviously decided to layer what layer efforts down on the side of the trump administration in the fourth kind of election and so yeah i would i think it's it's uh it's really i think we need a change of administration um uh and i think uh you know many years ago the i think probably the democratic party was the party of meritocracy and and and of personal freedom yeah um they used to be the free speech party yeah and and these days they they seem to be the censorship party under the guise of hate speech yeah um so uh so weirdly the in my view the republican party is actually the party of that that's the meritocracy party uh because you know the democrats also promoting dei which is really just um another form of racism and sexism um it's the most pernicious form i think actually right so it's anti-meritocratic dei is fundamentally anti-meritocratic so so so then it insists on dividing people by groups right as a primary what would you say conceptual distinction between individuals race and ethnicity sex
但显然你已经决定了层层推进特朗普政府在第四类选举中的努力。所以是的,我认为我们确实需要换个政府。很多年前,我认为可能民主党曾是精英制度和个人自由的政党,是保障言论自由的那一方。而现在,他们似乎在仇恨言论的幌子下成了审查言论的政党。因此,在我看来,反而是共和党成了提倡精英制度的政党。因为民主党还在提倡所谓的多样性、公平和包容(DEI),这实际上只是另一种形式的种族主义和性别歧视,我认为它是最恶劣的一种形式。DEI从根本上反精英主义,因为它强调按群体划分人,而不是以个体的种族、民族和性别来做主要的区分概念。
Paragraph 2:
i think democrat party is is stoking um division i think the evidence for that's clear all of this group identity nonsense has made things much more i can see it in Toronto when my kids grew up in toronto downtown i would say they were race they were race ethnicity and gender blind right seriously yeah they had an unbelievably diverse range of friends and no one cared sure and even in toronto that started to shift around with this emphasis on group division it's a really ugly thing to see so yeah not good not good yeah so my view and is that at this point in the united states the republican party um is more in line with uh uh merit a meritocracy yeah and with personal freedom um so i've never had a conservative many times with my left wing friends let's say they'd refuse to talk to someone or me included definitely because i've invited prominent democrats to come on my podcast in great numbers for a very long time and i've got like absolutely nowhere with that they'll talk to me in private they will not talk to me in public and so that's that's never happened they're afraid of being shunned absolutely 100 percent that's what they're afraid of sure definitely and they they told me that it's not a secret but that's never happened on the republican side i found it much easier because i've talked to a lot of democrats and a lot of republicans and i found it much much easier to talk to the republicans and that is somewhat of a shock i wouldn't have necessarily expected that yeah
我认为民主党正在煽动分裂,这点很明显。所有这些群体身份的无稽之谈让事情变得更加复杂。我可以看到这种变化在多伦多的体现。我孩子是在多伦多市中心长大的,当时他们对种族、民族和性别是毫不在意的。对,他们有着极其多样化的朋友,没人把这种差异放在心上。然而,即便在多伦多,这种强调群体分裂的趋势开始出现,这种现象真的很丑陋。所以,是的,不好,确实不好。
因此,现在在美国,我认为共和党更符合精英统治和个人自由的理念。我左翼的朋友们通常拒绝与某些人对话,包括我在内。我多次邀请著名的民主党人士来参加我的播客,但几乎没有任何回应。他们只愿意私下与我交谈,却不愿意公开对话。可以肯定的是,他们害怕被排斥,他们直接告诉了我这一点。
但在共和党方面,这种情况从未发生过。我发现与共和党人交流要容易得多,因为我与很多民主党人和共和党人都有过对话。我发现,与共和党人的交流顺畅得多,这让我有些惊讶,我原本没有预料到这一点。
Paragraph 1:
and i should be clear that i felt like i think the uh republican party is flawless um it certainly isn't got it's issues um there are extremists within the republican party that i don't agree with um but one has it's a two party system essentially you got to pick one or the other and so you weigh the the grid and the bat in my opinion is that and you flip the coin we need that the country would be better off with the republican administration than a democrat well trump was pretty good at not having wars yes yeah which is actually quite a big thing like it's really a big thing and what he did with the uh Abraham Accords that was a miracle i think right no absolutely um he should have got the Nobel Prize for that i think this this only to be said that you know america needs a strong leader and with the that we have the perception of strength um now um you you have to admire that you know trump after getting shot um with blood streaming down his face it could have been a second shooter who knows um nonetheless you know with with a fist pumping fight fight yeah um after being shot yeah i mean and this is not he's an ordinary he's funny too yes and he's brave he has a courage um this is this is instinctual courage yeah it's not calculated it's not some some arranged event it's in the moment well you could see that then because that was not a time when you're going to shoot true courage in the moment yeah yeah absolutely um and if you want to lead her who's going to deal with some very very tough cookies out there um he's going to you know deal with uh with a poutine or came jon came jon or you know china yeah china and uh they will be and they will be they'll think twice about messing with trump yeah they'll think twice okay okay um and poor poor biden can't make it up the stairs and obviously he's stepped out of the race but it's nobody's going to be intimidated by by viden it's impossible but but in some i
以下是第一段的中文翻译,尽量保证表达清楚且易读:
我必须说明,我觉得共和党不是完美的,它确实有一些问题,党内也有一些我不同意的极端分子。但在这个两党制的系统里,你不得不选择一个,所以你要权衡利弊。在我看来,国家在共和党政府下会比在民主党政府下更好。比如说,特朗普在避免战争方面做得很好,这一点非常重要。他促成了《亚伯拉罕协议》,那简直是个奇迹,我觉得他应该为此获得诺贝尔奖。美国需要一个强有力的领导人,这样我们才会显得有力量。
你不得不佩服特朗普,即使在被袭击后,脸上流着血,他依然勇敢地挥拳战斗。这不仅仅是普通人的表现,他很有勇气,这种勇气是本能的,而不是经过深思熟虑安排好的。在那种紧急情况下能展现出真正的勇气,非常了不起。如果你想要一个能面对强硬对手的领导人,比如普京、金正恩或者中国,特朗普会让他们三思而后行。但可怜的拜登连楼梯都上不去,显然他已经退出了竞选。没有人会被拜登吓倒的,这是不可能的。总的来说,
Paragraph1:
think they will be intimidated by a guy who was fist pumping after getting shot well we saw that i think in his administration yeah because it was peace did rain and that was quite that was quite uh well that's a bit of empirical evidence can i can i ask you a little bit about one of the things that you've been relatively vocal about and i understand that there's a personal connection to this as well so i am for what it's worth uh i'm particularly unhappy with my what my colleagues in the psychological field have done with regards to gender affirming care right i think they are a pack of contemptible cowards yes and i think that everyone who's been involved in this in relationship to minors should go to prison i agree okay okay why do you agree what like what what what's your or in the water in this particular this is the worst medical and psychological malpractice i've ever seen anywhere including what i've done what i've studied in reference to historical atrocity eugenics um what do you call those prefrontal lobotomy even the sorts of things that were going on in nazi german at least the bloody nazi's knew it was wrong and tried to hide it yes so okay so what what's your what's your why are you engaged in this particular battle i mean you you said you're going to move a couple of your company headquarters out of california because of the last legislative move that gavin newson pold with regards to the trans issue so yes i mean there three clear was there were many things leading up to that point yes um i just and i of course feel like look it's not that it's the one straw it's just the final straw yeah okay okay so it's a cumulative fair enough fair enough right right um so it's not dramatic grandstanding it's no and and moreover i've had conversations with gavonneson before where i said if you if you pass legislation like this you sign legislation like this um that in my view puts uh children in danger um i will move my companies out of california and he knew that ahead of time okay and so okay you've talked to him directly about this what the hell is he doing like i cannot understand i really cannot understand i mean the democrats is pandering to the far left why did the democrat martyrits constantly pander to the far left what i worked with the democrats in california for five years trying to get them to separate themselves from the far left they wouldn't admit that they existed even and they certainly would never separate them never they wouldn't admit for example that antifa even existed sure you know and so burning down buildings there's this unbelievable blind spot with regards to the far left radicals and the moderate democrats are i think they're useful idiots fundamentally so yeah well i mean going back to the um the so-called gender affirming care which is um a terrible euphemism that's for sure uh it's um it's it's really a child sterilization is what it should be no there's mutilation too mutilation yeah well we want to make sure that that amalgam is sure fair enough it's it's child mutilation it's our sterilization yeah under the guise of gender affirming care and compassion right right right i can't i literally can't imagine anything worse than that yes it's evil um i mean you're taking kids who are obviously often far below the age of consent yep confused miserable yes the reality is that almost every child goes through some kind of identity crisis you know that's part of puberty exactly it's just part of growing up um if so it's very possible for manipulate for for adults to manipulate children into who are having a natural identity crisis into believing that they are the wrong gender yeah um and that and and that and that and that they need to be uh uh the other gender or they need to avoid or when you scope be a girl you know and and that the that will solve all their problems and that will solve their problems and uh and then they uh give them sterilizing drugs uh which are called also a misnomer puberty blocker uh these are sterilization drugs uh so they can never have children again yeah um they uh can have messed double mastectomies um mutilation yeah they're forearms stripped to build non-functioning penises yeah um it's macabre um and um i mean we we have an age of consent for a reason that the reason um you can't get say tattoos blow it age 18 or um drink or drive you know there's there's ages i wish you can do things because uh if we allow children to to take permanent actions when they're um 10, 12, 14 years old they they they will do things that they subsequently greatly regret yes i've interviewed a couple of people who've done exactly that and it's right damn painful so um so i think you you you and doing why are you willing to make this an issue do you think uh well it it sort of happened to one of my it happened to one of my my older boys where i was um i was essentially tricked into signing documents uh for one of my older boys zaver uh this is before i had
翻译成中文,尽量容易理解:
我认为他们不会被一个在中枪后仍挥拳庆祝的人吓到,因为我们在他的执政期间已经看到了这一点。确实,那时的确是和平盛行,这相当有说服力,算是一种经验上的证据。我能不能问你一下,你一直相对主张的某些事情?我知道这和你有个人关系。就我而言,我对心理学领域的同事们在性别认同护理方面的所作所为特别不满。我认为他们是一群可鄙的懦夫。我认为任何与未成年人相关的事都应该进监狱。
我同意。
好,好,那你为什么同意呢?在这个问题上,你觉得是因为?
这是我见过的最糟糕的医疗和心理治疗失误,包括我研究的历史暴行、优生学、前额叶白质切除术,甚至纳粹德国的事情。至少纳粹知道错了还想掩盖。
是的,那你为什么参与到这场斗争中?你要把公司总部从加州搬走,因为Gavin Newsom在变性问题上的最新立法。
是的,那已经有一些原因促成了这一点。不是因为某一根稻草压垮了骆驼,而是最后一根稻草。
对,所以这是积累起来的。
没错,我之前和Newsom有过对话,我说如果你签署这样的立法,我认为会危及儿童,我就会把公司从加州搬走。他提前知道这一点。
好的,那你跟他直接谈过这个问题,他到底在想什么?我真的不能理解,民主党为什么要讨好极左派?我和加州的民主党合作了五年,试图让他们摆脱极左派,但他们甚至不承认他们的存在。
对,他们甚至不承认,比如Antifa存在。
实际上是,他们拒绝承认。温和的民主党人其实是无用的傀儡。他们不会承认极左派存在。
是这样的,回到所谓的性别认同护理,这是个可怕的委婉说法,更准确的说应该是儿童绝育和肢体残割。
对,是这样,在性别认同护理和同情的幌子下。
没错,我真的无法想象还有比这更糟的事情。
这是邪恶的行为。你把明显在同意年龄以下的孩子弄得迷茫和痛苦。实际上,每个孩子都会经历某种身份危机,这是青春期的一部分,是成长的过程。
如果成人在孩子自然的身份危机期间 manipulate他们,使他们相信自己是错误的性别,然后告诉他们需要变性以解决所有问题,然后给他们用药,使他们不能再生育,进行双乳房切除,甚至用他们的前臂皮肤建造不具功能的阴茎,这简直是残酷的。我们设立同意年龄是有原因的,所以我们不允许未成年人在10岁、12岁、14岁时做出永久决定,因为他们之后会极其后悔。我采访了一些人,他们确实如此,非常痛苦。你为什么愿意把这个问题提出来?
这个问题也影响到了我的一个大儿子,我当时被迫签署了文件,这太糟糕了。
Paragraph 1:
==========
really really any understanding what was going on and the we had coke covid going on and so there was a lot of confusion um and um you know i was told over you know zaver might commit suicide if that was a that was a lie right from the outset no reliable clinician ever believed that there was never any evidence for that and also if there's a higher suicide rate the reason is is because of the underlying depression and anxiety and not because of the gender dysphoria and every god damn clinician knows that too and they're too cowardly to come out and say it right and so that and then we end up in exactly when when i saw that lie start to propagate it just made the hair on the back of my next stand-up it's like i see so you're you're telling parents that unless they agree to this radical transformation that their children are going to die and you think that's moral and you think that's true that's so pat that is so pathological that it's almost incomprehensible i can't imagine anything worse i can't imagine a therapist doing anything worse than that or sitting by idly and remaining silent while his colleagues are doing it it's pathetic uh it's it's uh incredibly evil and i agree with you that people that have been promoting this should go to prison it won't stop till that happens yeah it'll just go underground there's all puberty blockers are being accessed online by kids all the time through non-medical channels so yeah it's not going to stop yeah okay so i see so that's so i was i was straight into doing this um and uh you know it wasn't explained to me that puberty blockers are actually just sterilization drugs um so um anyway uh and so i lost my son essentially uh so you know they uh they call it dead naming for a reason yeah all right so that the reason it's called dead naming is because uh your son is dead so my son's avar is dead killed by the woke wine virus i'm sorry to hear that yeah i can't imagine what that would be like yeah so um
第一段:
==========
真的,真的不明白到底发生了什么,当时我们还在经历新冠疫情,所以情况很混乱。我听说有人说扎威尔可能会自杀,但那完全是从一开始就撒谎。没有任何可靠的临床医生相信这一点,从来没有任何证据支持这一说法。而且,如果自杀率较高,那是因为潜在的抑郁和焦虑,而不是性别焦虑,每个该死的医生都知道这一点,但他们太胆小,不敢站出来说。当我看到这种谎言开始传播时,真是让我后背发凉。你们竟然告诉父母,如果他们不同意这种激进的转变,他们的孩子就会死去,你们认为这是道德的吗?你们认为这是真的吗?这简直病态到难以置信,我无法想象还有什么比这更糟糕的,我无法想象一个治疗师会做出比这更糟糕的事,或者坐视同事这样做,保持沉默。这真是可悲,极其邪恶。我同意你,宣传这些的人应该入狱,只有这样才能制止它的蔓延。不然它只会转入地下,孩子们会通过非医疗途径在网上获取青春期阻断药物,所以这根本不会停止。因此,我一下子就被卷入了这件事。没人告诉我青春期阻断药物实际上就是绝育药物。所以,我实际上失去了我的儿子。他们称之为“死名”是有原因的。对,他们称之为“死名”是因为你的儿子已经死了,我的儿子扎威尔因为这种觉醒文化病毒而死。我为此感到抱歉,无法想象那是怎样的痛苦。
===
当然,请提供您需要翻译的内容。
Paragraph 2:
===
当然,请提供需要翻译的第二段具体内容。
yeah and there's lots of people in that situation now right it's not pretty and lots of demolished kids yes yeah well that's a good that's a good reason to be the final straw all right so let's so i'm about to destroy the the woke wine virus after that and we're making some progress join the club yeah okay let's end on something positive you're shooting for Mars what do you think that's doing for people because it's kind of i don't want to be i don't want to step out of my box here but it's really interesting to me to watch you do this because it's preposterous right it's a preposterous thing to do to go to Mars yeah and yet i was old enough when the moon landing was happening to remember what that was like right it was an adventure positive adventure everybody could participate in it was an unbelievable technological accelerant and it was a a mark of faith in the while in the west i would say right in the in the might of the united states and the upward aim and so i know you're playing i don't mean in the game like matter that's what you're tapping into what do you think you're doing with this with the mars venture
是的,现在有很多人处于那种境地,对吧?这并不美好,还有许多被毁掉的孩子。是的,是的,好吧,这正是一个重要的理由,成为压倒骆驼的最后一根稻草。那么,让我们继续吧,我即将消灭这种“觉醒的葡萄酒病毒”,我们已经取得了一些进展,加入我们的行列吧。好吧,让我们以一些积极的东西结束。你正在瞄准火星,你认为这对人们有什么影响?因为我不想越界,但看你做这件事对我来说真的很有趣,因为去火星是件荒谬的事情,对吧?但是,我年纪够大了,记得登月时的情景,那是一次冒险,一次可以让所有人参与的积极冒险,是一次难以置信的科技加速,也是一种对西方,尤其是对美国力量和追求更高目标的信心的象征。所以,我知道你在做什么,并不是在玩游戏。那么,你觉得你通过这个火星计划正在做些什么呢?
well the the mars venture i think is part of the expansion of consciousness beyond earth so um i mean i want to be clear that that i i don't think we should apply some vast number amount of resources to to mars i'm talking about less than one percent of of of our economic output should go to making life multi-planetary but it is natural extension of of expanding the scope of scale of consciousness so i think we want to do everything we can to make sure that earth is going to be great for a long time as long as possible and but also allocate a small amount of resources like i said less than one percent of our economy to um extending life beyond earth um and uh and ultimately to other star systems right and so that's that's perfectly in keeping with what you described at the beginning of the of our discussion about the manner in which you resolved your crisis of faith as a child your commitment to the validity of consciousness your your desire to what would you say facilitate its transformation development extension that goes along with your pro-human ethos right so that's all thinking from first principles so i think you are stuck in the religious camp one word other so i can say you can call it i don't mind it's been called a religion um but i think uh
火星计划,我认为是我们意识扩展到地球以外的一部分。我想明确表示,我不认为我们应该投入大量资源到火星上。我所说的是我们经济产出的不到百分之一,应该用于让生命能够在多个星球上存续。这是扩展意识范围和规模的自然延伸。所以,我认为我们应该尽一切努力确保地球在尽可能长的时间内是一个美好的地方,但同时也应该分配少量资源(如我所说的,不到经济产出的百分之一)用于将生命延伸到地球之外,最终延伸到其他星系。
这完全符合你在我们讨论开始时所描述的,你如何在童年时解决信仰危机时的方式。你对意识有效性的承诺,你希望促进其转变、发展和扩展的愿望,这都符合你的亲人类理念。所以,这一切都是从基本原则出发的。所以,我认为你处于宗教阵营,你可以这么称呼,我不介意,它被称为宗教。但我认为...
yeah well i i came here at least in part today to find out what just what the hell your religion was so so i want to end with this if you don't mind so i also asked you why you trust yourself in relationship to ai and you said well i don't entirely and so i thought that's a good answer but i mean more broadly like you have a lot of admirers there's a lot of people who are hoping that you're the guy that you that you what would you say that you're the guy who can do what you say you're going to do and there's lots of evidence that you can it's like you think it's reasonable for people to trust you well i think so i mean that's i wouldn't i wouldn't say trust me entirely but i i think uh on balance uh my track record suggests that i am fairly trustworthy what what elements of it do you think suggest that particularly um well i've i've built a lot of companies that have done useful things yeah you've built a lot of impossible companies that done useful things yeah right so that's an existence proof of sorts
是啊,我今天来这里,至少部分原因是想弄清楚你的宗教信仰到底是什么。所以,如果你不介意的话,我想用这个问题来结束对话。我之前也问过你,为什么你在处理人工智能相关问题时信任自己,你回答说,你并不完全信任自己。我觉得这是个好答案。
不过,我更广泛地想问的是:你有很多崇拜者,很多人希望你能够兑现自己的承诺,而且有很多证据表明你有能力做到这一点。你觉得人们信任你是合理的吗?
嗯,我觉得是这样。我不会说完全信任我,但综合来看,我的履历显示我是相当值得信赖的。你觉得有哪些具体元素表明这点呢?
嗯,我创办了很多有实用价值的公司。
对,你创办了很多看似不可能的公司,而且它们做出了实用的成果。
是的,这就算是一种存在的证明吧。
yeah and and you accept the validity of entrepreneurial striving as an indicator of ethical conduct which i think and i think if i think that's valid yeah i wouldn't be able to recruit great people to work with me to build these companies um i think if i was like a really bad person they would just wouldn't want to work with me um so uh you know i think like one of the tests for you know assessing someone's character is um to look at the character of their friends and their associates yeah um and while people can put up a mask themselves for their character their friends and associates will not yeah and so you can judge judge a person's character by their friends and associates and to some degree by their enemies right you know if evil people hate you well you might be doing something right
是的,是的,你接受企业家的努力作为衡量道德行为的标准,我认为这是合理的。如果我真的那么坏,我就不可能招募到优秀的人才与我一起创建这些公司。所以,我认为评估一个人品格的标准之一是看他的朋友和同事的品格。虽然一个人可以掩饰自己的真实性格,但他的朋友和同事却不会。因此,可以通过一个人的朋友和同事来判断他的品格,在一定程度上也可以通过他的敌人来判断。如果坏人讨厌你,那你可能正在做对的事情。
okay sir thank you all right thank you much appreciated very good to talk to you it's real it was a real privilege you're welcome yeah good all right you get
好的,先生,谢谢你。好的,非常感谢,很高兴和你聊,这是我的荣幸。不客气。好的,你明白了。