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a16z - Cyberattacks Used to Take Months. AI Can Do It in Minutes.

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**播客摘要(发布于 2026-11-13)** * **主持人与嘉宾:** 本期节目由 Zane 主持,嘉宾为 Amy。 * **“黑色十月”的概念:** 十月被称为“黑色十月”(被视为一种黑天鹅事件),因为安全行业从未见过在短短一个月内发生如此多的安全事件。这包括发现了数量庞大的漏洞、严重的漏洞,以及使用前所未有的速度和专业知识针对公司、初创公司和冰箱发起攻击的 AI 攻击者的崛起。埃隆·马斯克最近在推特上表示,“每天都是零日漏洞(zero day)。” * **AI 威胁与时间线:** * 先前的里程碑包括“Mythos 时刻”(当时 Mythos 证明了它能够发现漏洞)以及 OpenAI 的黑客阶段事件(这些是意外攻击)。 * “黑色十月”发生的变化是,这些理论变成了现实:模型现在已经足够优秀,能够发现并利用复杂的漏洞,而且开源模型正在迅速赶上。 * AI 开发平台(十月份有 915 家公司成为目标)成为特定目标,因为它们掌握着 AI 的密钥。 * AI 攻击者可以在大约 20 分钟内发现并利用代码中的零日漏洞,并运行整个攻击(这在以前需要最顶尖的攻击者花费数周或数月的时间)。 * 在进攻方面,开源模型仅落后大约三个月。AI 目前是人类社会中极少数 AI 表现优于人类的领域之一。 * **案例研究:PHP 到 Shell 漏洞:** * PHP 是一种被广泛使用的面向外部的技术(运行着大约 70% 的互联网)。几乎 100% 的客户都在运行 PHP。 * 该漏洞由 Wiz 和 Calif 这两个团队分别独立发现。 * 尽管在前两到三天内有 50% 的修补率,但这样一个漏洞将需要数年时间才能解决,因为较旧版本的 PHP 不会获得补丁。 * 获取利用代码(exploit)的时间显著缩短,并且信息往往在 CVE 或补丁准备好之前就发生泄露(例如 PHP 和 Linux 内核案例)。 * **工程与修补挑战:** * 世界尚未准备好在整个传统系统中实现自动化修补。 * 初创公司可以通过构建智能体流水线(用于创建补丁的自动化开发、自动化测试、自动化 CI/CD 和自动化 DevOps)来针对自动修补进行设计。 * AI 系统需要可扩展的多模型流水线。在每个事件上运行最先进、最昂贵的模型的成本是 prohibitively expensive(过高的)。一个成功的流水线遵循:确定性检测 -> 廉价模型检测 -> 高级模型 -> 最先进模型确认。 * **云安全与持续测试:** * 随着新模型(如 Mythos 1.2)的出现,传统的静态代码扫描可能会浪费数百万美元。 * 安全扫描必须是持续且智能的,平衡内部代码扫描、外部暴露检查、主动/被动攻击以及运行时监控,以明智地使用预算。 * Wiz 使用“红队智能体(Red Agent)”处理了绝大多数客户,该智能体利用内部上下文从外部对应用程序进行持续攻击。 * **预算、安全设计与消除浪费:** * 安全预算正在增加(例如,某 CISO 预计明年的预算将增加 80%),但仅靠预算并不能解决问题。 * 安全设计、沙箱化、隔离、网络锁定、进程锁定、镜像锁定,以及假设民族国家/AI 攻击者的存在至关重要。 * Amy 断言,安全团队目前所做的大部分工作(例如合规报告和经典的 CSPM 配置检查清单)并不是真正的安全,应该停止。团队应专注于发现关键风险、缓解措施、检测和响应准备。 * **公共基础设施与“善意扫描(Scan for Good)”:** * 连接到互联网的现实世界基础设施(例如欧洲的制冷机组和公共服务)面临来自 AI 攻击的严重风险。 * Wiz 推出了“善意扫描(Scan for Good)”,以帮助公共服务和非营利组织扫描其系统,并推动他们采用主动的红队扫描。 * **未来展望(未来 2-3 年):** * 安全游戏规则已经改变。该行业正在回到类似于 20世纪90年代 和 2000年代 的时代,全远程未经身份验证的零日漏洞以及潜在的互联网蠕虫不断涌现。 * 公司必须实现蓝队和红队双方的自动化,构建智能体工作流,并设计能够迅速将暴露组件从互联网上移除的系统。

**Podcast Summary (Published 2026-11-13)** * **Hosts and Guest:** Hosted by Zane, with guest Amy. * **The Concept of "Black October":** October is referred to as "Black October" (viewed like a Black Swan event) because the security industry has never seen so many security incidents happen in a single month. This includes a massive number of vulnerabilities found, severe vulnerabilities, and the rise of AI attackers using unprecedented speed and expertise against companies, startups, and refrigerators. Elon Musk tweeted recently that "every day is zero day." * **The AI Threat & Timeline:** * Previous milestones included the "Mythos moment" (when Mythos proved it could find vulnerabilities) and the hacking phase incident with OpenAI (which were accidental attacks). * What changed in Black October is that these theories became reality: models are now good enough to find and exploit complex vulnerabilities, and open-source models are catching up rapidly. * AI development platforms (915 companies targeted in October) are specifically targeted because they hold AI keys. * AI attackers can find and utilize zero days in code and run an entire attack (which previously took the best attackers weeks or months) in around 20 minutes. * On the offensive side, open-source models are only about three months behind. AI is currently one of the few areas in humankind where AI is better than humans. * **Case Study: PHP to Shell Vulnerability:** * PHP is a heavily used external-facing technology (running ~70% of the internet). Almost 100% of customers had PHP running. * It was independently discovered by two groups, Wiz and Calif. * Despite 50% patching within the first two to three days, a single vulnerability like this will take years to resolve because older versions of PHP do not receive patches. * The time to get an exploit dramatically decreased, and information often leaks before a CVE or patch is ready (such as in the PHP and Linux kernel cases). * **Engineering and Patching Challenges:** * The world is not ready for automated patching across legacy systems. * Startups can potentially design for auto-patching by building an agentic pipeline (automated dev to create a patch, automated testing, automated CI/CD, and automated DevOps). * AI systems require scalable, multi-model pipelines. Running the most advanced, expensive model on every event is cost-prohibitive. A successful pipeline moves from deterministic detection -> cheap model detection -> advanced model -> most advanced model confirmation. * **Cloud Security and Continuous Testing:** * Traditional static code scans can waste millions of dollars as new models (like Mythos 1.2) emerge. * Security scanning must be continuous and intelligent, balancing internal code scans, external exposure checks, active/passive attacks, and runtime monitoring to use budgets wisely. * Wiz handles a majority of customers using the "Red Agent," which continuously attacks applications from the outside using inside context. * **Budgets, Secure Design, and Eliminating Waste:** * Security budgets are increasing (e.g., a CISO expecting an 80% budget increase next year), but budgets alone won't solve the problem. * Secure design, sandboxing, isolation, network lockdown, process lockdown, image lockdown, and assuming nation-state/AI attackers are crucial. * Amy asserts that most of what security teams currently do (such as compliance reporting and classic CSPM configuration check lists) is not actual security and should be stopped. Teams should focus on finding critical risk, mitigation, detection, and response readiness. * **Public Infrastructure and "Scan for Good":** * Real-world infrastructure (such as refrigeration units in Europe and public services) connected to the internet is at serious risk from AI attacks. * Wiz launched "Scan for Good" to help public services and nonprofits scan their systems and push them toward proactive red scanning. * **Future Outlook (Next 2-3 Years):** * The security game has changed. The industry is returning to an era resembling the 1990s and 2000s, with full remote unauthenticated zero-days and potential internet worms popping up constantly. * Companies must automate both blue and red sides, build agentic workflows, and design systems capable of taking exposed components off the internet quickly.