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a16z - Where Startups Can Win Beyond OpenAI and Anthropic | HubSpot’s Dharmesh Shah

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**播客摘要:A16Z 播客** **主持人:** Joe Schmidt **嘉宾:** Dharmesh Shah(HubSpot 联合创始人兼 CTO) **发布日期:** 2026-11-10 ### **市场背景与创业者心态** * **最好的时代,最坏的时代:** 在这次变革期间运营一家成功的上市公司,带来了一个用人工智能服务客户的焕然一新的使命,类似于 20 年前 HubSpot 成立时旨在帮助中小企业利用互联网的情形。 * **“黄砖路”与前沿实验室:** Dharmesh Shah 同意 Joe Schmidt 关于在前方人工智能实验室竞相开辟的路径之外构建软件的文章。初创公司和成熟公司应该远离直接竞争前沿模型的“黄砖路”,除非它们具备结构性优势,否则应去寻找独特的机会角落。 * **抽象与速度:** 人工智能充当了更高层级抽象的新工具,让建设者能够比以往更快地进行迭代和学习,显著缩短了循环并降低了失败成本。 * **避免与萨姆·奥尔特曼(Sam Altman)竞争:** Dharmesh 开玩笑地引用了他的商业规则之一,即“永远不要与萨姆·奥尔特曼竞争”,但他指出,开源模型、商业替代方案以及开放路由器框架意味着建设者不再依赖单一公司来获取核心的人工智能要素。 ### **HubSpot 的历史、演变与生态系统** * **起源与中小企业切入点:** HubSpot 起步于波士顿地区的商学院。最初,他们将目标锁定在律所的 ERP 软件上(曾短暂称为“LegalSpot”,作为缩小切入点的练习),但他们了解到律所很难进行销售,并且更关心营销。他们转向了中小企业营销软件,因为它结合了企业的收费能力与消费者的规模。 * **平台与客户关系管理(CRM)之旅:** HubSpot 最初是一套营销应用程序(内容管理、搜索引擎优化、着陆页、表单),旨在解决碎片化的核心问题。后来,他们发现其 60% 的营销客户根本没有使用任何客户关系管理系统,因为现有的选择太吓人了而且很昂贵。为了占领该细分市场,他们推出了一个免费、易于使用的客户关系管理系统,最终演变成了一个平台。 * **生态系统哲学:** 受历史上平台/生态系统失误(例如 Twitter 随着时间推移关闭其开发者 API)的影响,HubSpot 将其开发者生态系统视为一款产品,旨在减少“获得快乐的时间”,并以开放和公平的态度对待合作伙伴。 ### **人工智能、界面与架构** * **界面与价值:** 界面只是达到目的的手段。商业应用程序更接近优食(Uber Eats)/门德氏(DoorDash)(底层工作和网络比原始应用用户界面更重要),而不是那些界面占价值 99% 的产品。 * **新操作系统/浏览器:** 聊天人工智能(Chat GPT)和云同事(Cloud Cowork)有效地充当了新的操作系统或浏览器,用户通过它们来消费价值。 * **确定性与推理:** Dharmesh 表示,任何可以用结构化查询确定性解决的问题都应该用这种方式解决,而不是通过推理向它扔出一个 智商(IQ)300 的模型。 * **人工智能架构与代码库:** 借助智能体编码,现有企业可以利用过去的数据,甚至回放代码的替代历史宇宙,以查看不同的架构基元会产生什么结果。HubSpot 将结构化数据存储与非结构化数据上下文(如上下文图谱/第二大脑)结合使用,并运行自动“评估”来测试新模型。 ### **HubSpot Next 与“YouSpot”** * **HubSpot Next:** 内部创新实验室和“创业公司内部的创业公司”,旨在追求新的产品类别、市场或技术,而没有核心组织的包袱。 * **YouSpot:** 在录制前正好 30 天启动的一个项目,目标是针对一人企业(独资企业),为其专门设计了客户关系管理系统。它测试了早期变现、基于消耗的定价以及第二大脑/图谱模型架构。 * **获得成功:** 成功的内部项目可以保持独立,通过内部的“收购兼聘(acqui-hire)”被吸纳到 HubSpot 母公司中,或者将核心架构经验回馈给主平台。 ### **软件与创业的现状** * **公司成立情况:** 2025 年,美国见证了创纪录的 560 万至 600 万家新公司成立,并且通过 8 月份的数据显示,另一项纪录正在稳步推进。 * **独资企业:** 据预测,超过 70% 的新成立公司将保持为一人公司(在头两年内不雇用员工),这预示着一个面向独资企业软件的庞大且不断增长的市场。 * **软件末日反论:** 虽然一些传统的软件公司如果不适应就会消亡,但软件的整体机会空间比以往任何时候都大,因为人工智能使解决软件以前从未具备处理能力的各种问题成为可能。 * **行动号召:** Dharmesh 鼓励具有高能动性、充满创业精神的建设者们投身其中,并指出这是商业史上构建软件最有趣、机遇最多的时期。 ### **快问快答** * **咖啡偏好:** 唐恩都乐(Dunkin)(尽管 Dharmesh 不喝咖啡或咖啡因,只喝水)。 * **购物偏好:** 直觉。 * **想成为的动物:** 哺乳动物,具体来说是一头大象。 * **HubSpot 最具波士顿特色的一点:** 务实、为客户解决问题,以及将东海岸的磨砺/务实与西海岸的雄心平衡起来。 * **在 HubSpot 最美好的一天:** 大约在录制前一周,随着新想法和新项目的汇聚并清晰地展开。

**Podcast Summary: A16Z Podcast** **Host:** Joe Schmidt **Guest:** Dharmesh Shah (Co-founder and CTO of HubSpot) **Publication Date:** 2026-11-10 ### **Market Context and the Builder's Mindset** * **Best of Times, Worst of Times:** Running a successful public company during this transformation brings a revitalized mission to serve customers with AI, similar to how HubSpot was founded 20 years ago to help SMBs leverage the internet. * **The "Yellow Brick Road" and Frontier Labs:** Dharmesh Shah agrees with Joe Schmidt’s essay about building software outside the path that Frontier AI labs are racing down. Startups and established companies should stay off the "yellow brick road" of direct frontier model competition unless they have structural advantages, finding unique pockets of opportunity instead. * **Abstraction and Speed:** AI acts as a new tool for higher-level abstraction, letting builders iterate and learn much faster than before, significantly shortening the loop and reducing the cost of failure. * **Avoid Competing with Sam Altman:** Dharmesh jokingly cites one of his business rules as "never compete with Sam Altman," though he notes that open-source models, commercial alternatives, and open router frameworks mean builders no longer rely on a single company for essential AI ingredients. ### **HubSpot’s History, Evolution, and Ecosystem** * **Origins and the SMB Wedge:** HubSpot started out of business school in the Boston area. Originally, they targeted ERP software for law firms (briefly called "LegalSpot" as an aperture-narrowing exercise), but learned that law firms were difficult to sell to and cared more about marketing. They pivoted to SMB marketing software because it combines the charging power of enterprise with the scale of consumer. * **The Platform and CRM Journey:** HubSpot started as a suite of marketing applications (content management, SEO, landing pages, forms) to solve the core problem of fragmentation. Later, they discovered that 60% of their marketing customers were not using any CRM at all because existing options were too intimidating and expensive. To capture that segment, they launched a free, easy-to-use CRM, which eventually evolved into a platform. * **Ecosystem Philosophy:** Influenced by historical platform/ecosystem missteps (such as Twitter closing down its developer APIs over time), HubSpot treats its developer ecosystem like a product, aiming to reduce "time to joy" and treating partners openly and fairly. ### **AI, Interfaces, and Architecture** * **The Interface vs. the Value:** The interface is a means to an end. Business applications sit closer to Uber Eats/DoorDash (where the underlying work and network matter more than the raw app UI) rather than products where the interface is 99% of the value. * **New OS / Browsers:** Chat GPT and Cloud Cowork effectively function as the new operating systems or browsers through which users consume value. * **Determinism vs. Inference:** Dharmesh states that anything that can be solved with a structured query deterministically should be solved that way, rather than throwing a 300 IQ model at it via inference. * **AI Architecture & Codebases:** With agentic coding, incumbents can leverage past data and even play back alternative historical universes of code to see what different architectural primitives would have yielded. HubSpot uses structured data stores alongside unstructured data contexts (like a context graph/second brain) and runs automated "evals" to test new models. ### **HubSpot Next and "YouSpot"** * **HubSpot Next:** An internal innovation lab and "startup within a startup" designed to pursue new product categories, markets, or technologies without the baggage of the core organization. * **YouSpot:** A project launched exactly 30 days prior to recording that targets one-person businesses (solopreneurs) with a CRM designed specifically for them. It tests early monetization, consumption-based pricing, and a second-brain/graph model architecture. * **Acquiring Success:** Successful internal projects can either remain standalone, be absorbed into the HubSpot mothership via an internal "acqui-hire," or contribute core architectural learnings back to the main platform. ### **The Current State of Software and Entrepreneurship** * **Company Formations:** In 2025, the U.S. saw a record-shattering 5.6 to 6 million new company formations, with another record pace tracking through August. * **Solopreneurs:** Over 70% of new company formations are predicted to remain one-person companies (not hiring employees within the first two years), signaling a massive, growing market for solopreneur-focused software. * **The SaaS Apocalypse Counter-Thesis:** While some traditional software companies will die if they fail to adapt, the overall opportunity set for software is larger than ever because AI enables solutions for problems that software was never previously equipped to handle. * **Call to Action:** Dharmesh encourages high-agency, entrepreneurial builders to dive in, noting that it is the most fun and opportune time to build software in commercial history. ### **Lightning Round Answers** * **Coffee preference:** Dunkin (though Dharmesh doesn't drink coffee or caffeine and drinks only water). * **Shopping preference:** Instinct. * **Animal to be:** A mammal, specifically an elephant. * **Most Boston thing about HubSpot:** Pragmatism, solving for the customer, and balancing East Coast grind/pragmatism with West Coast ambition. * **Best day ever at HubSpot:** About a week prior to recording, as new ideas and projects came together and unraveled clearly.