在《市场周刊》这个特殊的万圣节特辑中，主持人讨论了近期令人毛骨悚然的市场走势，重点指出了纳斯达克的显著下跌以及人工智能交易持续崩盘的更广泛影响。 主持人解释说，人工智能交易正在从外向内逐渐崩盘。几周前，随着借贷成本飙升，且投资者对“借入数十亿美元来建设数据中心却不知未来计算价格”这一商业模式产生怀疑，该生态系统中最具投机性的边缘部分——新兴云服务商（neoclouds）——大跌。上周，这种怀疑情绪蔓延到了“七巨头”（Magnificent 7）。尽管发布了还不错的财报，但 Meta、谷歌（Google）、亚马逊（Amazon）和微软（Microsoft）等公司的股价仍然遭到重创。主持人指出，市场基调发生了重大转变：虽然这些科技巨头继续花费数千亿美元用于人工智能建设，目前自由现金流为负或靠借贷来资助这一建设，但市场不再盲目喝彩。此外，Anthropic 的 S-1 备案文件显示其过去两个月的收入增长陷入停滞，这引发了人们对巨额计算承诺与持平的收入之间矛盾的质疑。 除了融资的可行性之外，基本面的人工智能颠覆也正在对现有巨头造成损害。谷歌的核心搜索业务增长正在放缓，因为用户越来越多地转向人工智能获取答案，而不是点击赞助搜索链接。人工智能代理还使购物平台更具竞争力。虽然这有利于消费者，但对谷歌和亚马逊等现有巨头具有颠覆性。此外，日益严重的网络安全担忧——例如最近发生的一起涉及数十亿美元被盗的重大加密货币交易所黑客事件，可能得到了人工智能的协助——正在损害加密货币和纳斯达克的风险偏好情绪。 在其他资产类别方面，债券迎来了避险资金的买盘，10年期收益率跌破 5%，因为风险资产的通货紧缩指向了潜在的经济衰退、更少的加息以及最终的降息。与此同时，黄金跌破了其移动平均线，落在了 4,000 美元的关口以下。 主持人警告称，由于重大催化剂的存在，特别是对伊朗潜在的打击以及即将到来的美国中期选举，股票市场的跌幅可能会在下周加速。在政治方面，博彩市场目前给出了 70% 的民主党全胜（democratic sweep）概率，这是由公众对负担能力问题、关税以及伊朗战争导致的极高能源成本的不满所驱动的。如果发生民主党全胜，主持人预测将会推动取消关税、限制数据中心建设以及可能停止资助伊朗战争，这对债券将是利好的。然而，更高的税收、增加的政府支出以及对政府的预期调查可能会拖累消费者情绪、公司利润和股票市场，将气候推向经济衰退的环境。 最后，虽然总统多次拒绝了打击伊朗的机会，但主持人指出，如果打击确实在中期选举之前或之后发生，由此产生的报复和油价飙升将进一步损害经济前景。

In this special Halloween episode of *Markets Weekly*, the host discusses the recent spooky market action, highlighting a significant drop in the Nasdaq and the broader implications of the AI trade's ongoing implosion. The host explains that the AI trade is gradually imploding from the outside in. A few weeks ago, the most speculative periphery parts of the ecosystem—the neoclouds—tanked as borrowing costs surged and investors grew skeptical of the business model of borrowing billions to build data centers without knowing future compute prices. Last week, this skepticism spread to the Magnificent 7. Despite reporting decent earnings, companies like Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft saw their stock prices hammered. The host notes a major tone shift: while these tech giants continue to spend hundreds of billion dollars on AI build-outs and are now free cash flow negative or borrowing to fund it, the market is no longer applauding blindly. Furthermore, Anthropic’s S-1 filing revealed stalling revenue growth over the past two months, raising questions about massive compute commitments versus flatlining revenue. Beyond financing viability, fundamental AI disruption is taking a toll on incumbents. Google’s core search business growth is decelerating because users are increasingly turning to AI for answers rather than clicking sponsored search links. AI agents are also making shopping platforms more competitive. While this benefits consumers, it is disruptive to incumbents like Google and Amazon. Additionally, rising cybersecurity concerns—such as a recent major crypto exchange hack involving billions stolen, potentially aided by AI—are hurting risk-on sentiment in crypto and the Nasdaq. Looking at other asset classes, bonds received a flight-to-safety bid, with the 10-year yield dropping below 5%, as a deflation in risk assets points toward a potential recession, fewer rate hikes, and eventual rate cuts. Meanwhile, gold lost its moving averages and fell below the $4,000 mark. The host warns that equity market declines could accelerate next week due to major catalysts, specifically potential strikes on Iran and the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. Regarding politics, betting markets currently give a 70% chance of a democratic sweep, driven by public dissatisfaction with affordability issues, tariffs, and high energy costs stemming from the Iran war. If a democratic sweep occurs, the host predicts a push to roll back tariffs, curb data center construction, and potentially defund the Iran war, which would be positive for bonds. However, higher taxes, increased government spending, and expected investigations into the administration could weigh on consumer sentiment, corporate profits, and equity markets, pushing the climate toward a recessionary environment. Finally, while the president has repeatedly turned down opportunities to strike Iran, the host notes that if strikes do occur before or after the midterms, the resulting retaliation and oil price spikes would further damage the economic outlook.