欢迎收看由主持人为您带来的10月24日市场周评。上周市场出现了波动。标普500指数上涨，但未能收复50日移动平均线，全周下跌1%。不过，该指数仍稳稳维持在约7600点的180日移动平均线以及约7300点的200日移动平均线上方。受空头回补和真正的避险资金涌入推动，国债收益率显著下降。VIX恐慌指数维持在20下方的不高位置，且偏度曲线呈现陡峭化，反映出市场谨慎的基调。当前市场面临三个重大且持续的问题：人工智能交易出现不断扩大的裂痕、中东局势迫在眉睫的升级，以及在明年法国大选到来之前欧洲隐隐作现的主权债务危机。 **人工智能交易与融资限制** 在Meta发布财报后，市场对人工智能交易的情绪发生了转变。尽管Meta报告了良好的业绩，并宣布增加人工智能基础设施建设的资本支出，但Meta的股票以及“卖铲人”公司的股价双双暴跌。超大规模云服务商一直将自由现金流投入到人工智能数据中心、GPU、内存和发电厂中，现在又转向借入数千亿美元的更多资金。Meta的自由现金流目前已为负值，报告显示其通过特殊目的实体（SPV）和担保承担了巨额的资产负债表外负债。参与人工智能交易的公司的信用违约互换（CDS）显著上升，反映出债务市场的风险正在增加。乔·维森塔尔（Joe Wiesenthal）在一次财报电话会议上指出，由于来自Anthropic、OpenAI和其他债务发行人的激烈竞争，Meta在筹集资金方面正面临更多困难。来自持怀疑态度的债务市场和美联储加息的这种融资限制，可能会放慢人工智能建设的步伐。人工智能交易使公司面临重大风险，因为它们在计算能力的现货市场上借入长期资金、出借短期资金，并面临不确定的中短期收入、潜在的算法变更，以及来自英伟达（NVIDIA）或中国公司等供应商的技术进步。由于人工智能建设一直是美国国内生产总值（GDP）的主要驱动力，裂痕的扩大显著增加了美国经济衰退的可能性。 **中东局势升级与油价** 中东局势升级威胁到油价的上涨。英国《金融时报》最初的报道显示，以色列计划在10月10日打击伊朗，周一在伊朗边境附近举行了一场大型以色列空军演习。罗伯特·佩特（Robert Pate）教授估计，中期选举前局势升级的几率高于50%，此后的概率将显著上升。以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在民调中支持率下降，可能会认为局势升级在政治上有所帮助。与此同时，伊朗也可能会升级局势；政策张量（Policy Tensor）指出，伊朗已改变军事准则，如果船只未经授权试图通过霍尔木兹海峡，将威胁美国基地。由于市场参与者在锁定供应，布伦特原油期货因战争溢价正急剧飙升，逼近早些时候的年内高点。沙特阿拉伯和其他中东生产商正在将官方售价（OSP）降至基准价格以下，以补偿高昂的油轮运费并保持竞争力。虽然较高的油价通常会推高利率，但极端飙升可能会导致经济衰退，不过目前收益率对人工智能交易和中东冲突引发的经济衰退担忧反应更为强烈。 **欧元区债务危机与政治风险** 在欧元区，法国互换利差正变得更加负向，随着法国10年期国债收益率相对于欧洲央行政策预期不断攀升，这表明信用风险正在上升。生活成本压力以及核电厂关停、拒绝俄罗斯天然气和受阻的中东能源所导致的飙升的能源价格，加剧了法国及全欧洲的疯狂抗议。公众的不满正在助长政治风险以及欧洲反对党的崛起。潜在的结果包括欧盟对法国等国家强加通货紧缩式的紧缩政策，从而严重拖累经济增长。这场主权债务危机虽然进展缓慢，但正在逼近明年的法国大选。 **展望未来** 下周将迎来美联储会议。鉴于预期会暂停加息、即将到来的选举，以及长期收益率上升和股价下跌为美联储提供的纾困，加息的可能性不大。

Welcome to Markets Weekly for October 24th, presented by the host. Last week saw volatility in the markets. The S&P 500 rose but failed to regain its 50-day moving average, ending the week down 1%. However, it remains comfortably above its 180-day moving average at around 7600 and its 200-day moving average at around 7300. Treasury yields saw a significant decline driven by short covering and a legitimate flight to safety. The VIX remains elevated just below 20 with a steepening skew, reflecting a cautious market tone. Three major, persistent issues are facing the markets: widening cracks in the AI trade, imminent escalation in the Middle East, and a simmering sovereign debt crisis in Europe ahead of next year's French elections. **The AI Trade and Financing Constraints** Following Meta's earnings report, market sentiment toward the AI trade shifted. Although Meta reported good earnings and announced increased capital expenditures for the AI buildout, both Meta's stock and the "picks and shovels" companies took a dive. Hyperscalers have been plowing their free cash flow into AI data centers, GPUs, RAM, and power plants, and have now turned to borrowing hundreds of billions more. Meta's free cash flow is now negative, and reports indicate large off-balance-sheet liabilities through SPVs and guarantees. Credit default swaps (CDS) for companies involved in the AI trade have risen notably, reflecting increased risk in the debt markets. Joe Wiesenthal flagged on an earnings call that Meta is facing more difficulty raising financing due to heavy competition from Anthropic, OpenAI, and other debt issuers. This financing constraint from skeptical debt markets and Fed rate hikes could slow down the AI buildout. The AI trade exposes companies to significant risk because they are borrowing long and lending short in the spot market for compute, facing uncertain short- to medium-term revenues, potential algorithm changes, and technological advances from suppliers like NVIDIA or Chinese companies. Because the AI buildout has been a major driver of US GDP, widening cracks significantly increase the probability of a US recession. **Middle East Escalation and Oil Prices** Escalation in the Middle East threatens to drive up oil prices. Initial Financial Times reporting indicated Israel planned to strike Iran on October 10th, and a large Israeli air force exercise occurred right outside the Iranian border on Monday. Professor Robert Pate estimates a higher than 50% chance of escalation before the midterms, with the probability rising significantly afterward. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is down in the polls and may view escalation as politically helpful. Meanwhile, Iran may also escalate; Policy Tensor highlights that Iran has shifted military doctrine to threaten US bases if ships attempt to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without authorization. Brent futures are surging near earlier yearly highs due to war premium as market participants secure supplies. Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern producers are lowering official selling prices (OSPs) below the benchmark to compensate for high tanker rates and remain competitive. While higher oil prices generally raise rates, extreme spikes can become recessionary, though yields are currently responding more to recessionary concerns from the AI trade and Middle Eastern conflict. **Eurozone Debt Crisis and Political Risk** In the Eurozone, French swap spreads are becoming more negative, indicating rising credit risk as French 10-year yields climb relative to ECB policy expectations. Wild protests in France and across Europe are fueled by cost-of-living strains and soaring energy prices resulting from nuclear plant shutdowns, a rejection of Russian gas, and blocked Middle Eastern energy. Public discontent is fueling political risk and the rise of opposing European parties. Potential outcomes include the EU forcing deflationary austerity on countries like France, weighing heavily on growth. Although slow-moving, this sovereign debt crisis is approaching French elections next year. **Looking Ahead** Next week brings a Fed meeting. A rate hike is unlikely given expectations of a skip, the upcoming elections, and the relief provided to the Fed by higher long-term yields and declining equity prices.