In this episode of *Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing*, host Tyler Crow is joined by longtime Fool contributors Matt Frankel and Lou Whiteman to discuss recent bank earnings, the ongoing challenges of robotics and automation in the retail sector, and a listener mailbag question regarding a real estate investment trust.
The show opens with a discussion on major bank earnings from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Citibank. Noting a "Bizarro Bank Earnings Day" dynamic, the hosts highlight JPMorgan’s reported earnings per share of 557, which missed Wall Street expectations of 590. Lou Whiteman explains that JPMorgan serves as the bellwether of Wall Street, and while heavy trading models performed well, rate-sensitive and diversified franchises showed signs of strain. Matt Frankel shifts the focus to the consumer health indicators found in the bank earnings, noting that credit card spending at major banks increased by 10% to 13%, with real increases of 6% to 9% after adjusting for inflation, and consumer credit quality remaining strong with lower net charge-off rates. However, Matt also acknowledges yellow flags, including Jamie Dimon’s cautious commentary on large deficits, sticky inflation, elevated asset prices, rising interest rates, and geopolitics, as well as JPMorgan’s decision to deliberately cut back its share repurchases.
The conversation then pivots to robotics and automation, prompted by a recent *Wall Street Journal* article detailing Walmart’s hurdles in implementing automation. The hosts discuss Amazon’s distinct advantage in the space, noting that Amazon has been investing heavily and designing facilities around automation since its acquisition of Kiva Systems in 2012, whereas legacy retailers like Walmart are forced to retrofit older buildings. They note the complexities of warehouse automation, where facilities are often only around 80% automated because the remaining 20% requires human adaptability for bespoke tasks. The hosts also address capital expenditure constraints, pointing out that power infrastructure and high electricity bills—which can more than triple when a warehouse is automated—pose significant challenges alongside massive AI infrastructure spending. For investors interested in the space, Lou highlights Symbotic and GXO as intriguing plays, while Matt suggests that retailers with strong balance sheets, such as Walmart, are well-positioned to navigate the heavy spending required.
In the second half of the show, host Tyler Crow and Matt Frankel answer a listener email from Matt Hoffman regarding Empire State Realty Trust (ticker: ESRT). Matt Frankel explains that the stock's poor performance is primarily driven by a decline in international tourism affecting the observatory on top of the Empire State Building, leading to a nearly 30% drop in observatory revenue and a sharp cut in net operating income. Despite the observatory struggles, Matt notes that the office portfolio remains robust at nearly 90% leased with rising lease rates. Evaluating the stock, Lou Whiteman shares that he would hold the stock for now, citing its valuation at six times funds from operations and no debt maturities until 2028, though he acknowledges high debt ratios and limited visibility into future observatory revenue. Tyler Crow expresses skepticism regarding the stock's long-term market-beating potential given its 50% drop and a dividend yield under three percent.
The episode concludes with standard podcast disclaimers and acknowledgments of the production team.