首页  >>  来自播客: Motley Fool Money 更新   反馈  

Motley Fool Money - Is Elon Musk Coming for Verizon?

发布时间:   原节目
在发布于2026年10月13日的这期《Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing》节目中,主持人特拉维斯·霍伊(Travis Hoey)与路·维特曼(Lou Weitman)和丹·卡普林格(Dan Kaplinger)一起讨论了近期的市场动荡、财报以及对股市的回顾。 ### SpaceX与电信颠覆 主持人们开场讨论了SpaceX最近关于收购频谱的协议。受此消息影响,上周晚些时候市场对SpaceX进军无线行业的预期做出反应,导致威瑞森(Verizon)股票下跌了10%。特拉维斯指出,他的地面蜂窝网络服务速度大约是SpaceX售价55美元的卫星服务的八倍,这让他对用户是否会为了卫星连接而牺牲速度和ping值(网络延迟)持怀疑态度。 路·维特曼表示赞同,并指出其中涉及延迟和距离的重大物理挑战。不过,他解释说,SpaceX购买的频谱实际上更适合地面蜂窝网络使用——特别是用于穿透墙壁——这表明SpaceX有兴趣建立一个与卫星配套的地面网络。建设这个网络将花费100亿美元或更多,这意味着这不是一个即时或廉价的解决方案。路暗示,此举是一种“创收”形式,利用移动资产来产生现金流,并帮助资助SpaceX巨大的长期资本支出需求,这类似于美国电话电报公司(AT&T)、T-Mobile和威瑞森产生数千亿美元收入的方式。 丹·卡普林格指出,虽然星链(Starlink)在缺乏地面无线网络的北方加拿大和阿拉斯加等低密度、偏远地区显然很有用,但在高密度人口密集区却带来了重大的带宽挑战。此外,每五到七年更换一次卫星需要巨大的资本支出,尽管太空部署避免了向土地所有者支付铁塔安置费和维修费。丹还提到,像AST SpaceMobile这样的公司正在与威瑞森和美国电话电报公司等传统供应商合作,给电信行业带来了不断增加的定价和利润率压力。 ### 百事公司的财报与定价权 接下来,专家小组分析了百事公司(PepsiCo)的最新财报。财报显示,由于大宗商品价格上涨,营收如预期般增长,但利润率下降,净利润指引也较为疲软。丹·卡普林格强调了自2020年以来消费品价格的大幅上涨,例如薯片价格从每磅4.50美元上涨50%至6.50美元,软饮料价格从每罐0.35美元上涨至0.60美元。这些涨幅远远超过了整体消费者价格指数(CPI)通胀。丹还指出,联邦贸易委员会(FTC)最近提起了一起诉讼,指控百事公司和沃尔玛(Walmart)在优惠定价方面存在串通,这突显出在负担能力危机和转向商店自有品牌(Store brands)的趋势下,控制消费品价格上涨面临的巨大压力。 路·维特曼承认他作为消费者并未密切关注该公司,但他认为该股票越来越具有吸引力。该股目前的交易价格约为预期收益的15倍,股息收益率在4.7%左右且不断增长,路相信百事公司是一个长期的幸存者,且大部分负面情绪已经被定价。 ### 回顾过去四年的市场 节目最后回顾了从疫情高点到四年前低点的市场底部。路表达了他的担忧,即投资者可能高估了自己的韧性,因为2022年的下跌是一个缓慢的过程,而不是像2008年那样严重的崩盘,他警告听众在未来的危机中不要做出恐慌驱动的决定。 丹·卡普林格强调,在2021年至2022年的下跌中坚持下来的投资者获得了回报,标准普尔500指数实现了21.6%的四年平均年化收益率——在四年内翻了一倍多。然而,他指出存在巨大的参与度差距:近150只股票(约占目前标准普尔500指数的30%)在过去五年中仍然下跌,这强调了收益一直集中在少数几只股票中。这使得个股选择和评估真正的颠覆性故事(例如人工智能将如何影响各个行业)比以往任何时候都更加重要。

In this episode of *Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing*, published on October 13, 2026, host Travis Hoey is joined by Lou Weitman and Dan Kaplinger to discuss recent market disruptions, earnings reports, and a retrospective look at the stock market. ### SpaceX and Telecom Disruption The hosts open by discussing SpaceX’s recent agreement to acquire spectrum, which triggered a 10% drop in Verizon stock late last week as markets reacted to the prospect of SpaceX entering the wireless industry. Travis notes that his terrestrial cellular service was about eight times faster than SpaceX's $55 satellite offering, making him skeptical that users will sacrifice speed and ping times for satellite connections. Lou Weitman agrees, pointing out the significant physics challenges involving latency and distance. However, he explains that the spectrum SpaceX purchased is actually better suited for terrestrial cellular use—specifically for penetrating walls—signalling that SpaceX is interested in building out a terrestrial network to accompany its satellites. Building this network will cost $10 billion or more, meaning it is not an immediate or cheap fix. Lou suggests this move is a form of "revenue hunting," utilizing mobile assets to generate cash flow and help fund the massive long-term capital expenditure needs of SpaceX, similar to how AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon generate hundreds of billions in revenue. Dan Kaplinger notes that while Starlink is clearly useful in low-density, remote regions like Northern Canada and Alaska where land-based wireless is absent, high-density populated areas present major bandwidth challenges. Furthermore, replacing satellites every five to to seven years entails massive CapEx, though space deployment avoids paying landowners for tower placement and repairs. Dan also mentions companies like AST Space Mobile partnering with traditional providers like Verizon and AT&T, bringing increased pricing and margin pressure to the telecom industry. ### PepsiCo's Earnings and Pricing Power Next, the panel analyzes PepsiCo’s latest earnings report, which showed revenue growing as expected, though margins were down and bottom-line guidance came in weaker due to rising commodity prices. Dan Kaplinger highlights the dramatic rise in consumer prices since 2020, such as potato chips rising 50% from $4.50 to $6.50 per pound, and soft drinks rising from $0.35 to $0.60 per can. These increases far outpace overall CPI inflation. Dan also points to a recent FTC lawsuit alleging collusion between PepsiCo and Walmart over preferential pricing, highlighting the immense pressure to keep consumer price increases under control amid an affordability crisis and a shift toward store brands. Lou Weitman admits he does not follow the company closely as a consumer, but views the stock as increasingly appetizing. Trading at roughly 15 times expected earnings with a dividend yield hovering near 4.7% and growing, Lou believes that PepsiCo is a long-term survivor and that much of the negativity is already priced in. ### Looking Back Four Years on the Market The episode concludes with a look back at the market bottom from the pandemic highs to its lows four years ago. Lou expresses concern that investors may be overestimating their resilience because the 2022 downdraft was a slow slog rather than a severe crash like 2008, warning listeners not to make panic-driven decisions during future crises. Dan Kaplinger highlights that investors who stayed the course through the 2021–2022 decline were rewarded with a 21.6% four-year average annual return in the S&P 500—more than a double in four years. However, he notes a major participation disparity: nearly 150 stocks (about 30% of the current S&P 500) are still down over the past five years, underscoring that gains have been concentrated in a small number of stocks. This makes individual stock picking and evaluating real disruption stories—such as how artificial intelligence will impact various industries—more important than ever.