This podcast, published on 2026-10-06, discusses the current state and future potential of SpaceX stock, highlighting a perceived undervaluation by many investors.
**Key Points:**
* **SpaceX Stock Performance & Valuation:** The stock recently surged 7-8% and is still considered "dirt cheap" by some. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas has a base case price target of $300 per share, nearly double the current price. He suggests a unique opportunity to buy shares over the next few weeks, ahead of Starship Flight 15, as the stock looks "unusually cheap."
* **Investor Misunderstanding:**
* Adam Jonas notes that less than 5% of his clients have invested in SpaceX, and often, when he asks clients, only one or two hands, or even none (as in a recent presentation to 40 clients), go up for SpaceX ownership.
* Sean Maguire, an early SpaceX investor, wrote on X that "SpaceX is extremely hard for most people to understand."
* Aaron Burnett (from ARK, known for the collaborative SpaceX valuation model with Mac 33) concurred, stating it's "surprising that less than 5% of his clients have invested" and that SpaceX isn't "inherently intuitive for investors without a relevant background."
* **Complexity of SpaceX's Business:** Adam Jonas emphasizes that SpaceX is a "conglomeration of many tightly interlinked businesses" requiring investors to understand all of them in concert. He points out that few understand the engineering challenges of Starship's heat shield or full flow stage combustion engines, or the future of compute pricing. He terms valuing SpaceX an "'and' problem than an 'or' problem."
* **Underestimated Potential:**
* The speaker agrees with Jonas that the stock is "unusually cheap" at a low $2 trillion market cap.
* Adam Jonas suggests that consensus estimates for SpaceX's compute business revenue are "way, way below the reality."
* The speaker highlights the synergy between Starship and Starlink, noting that Starship will enable a 10-20 times increase in Starlink bandwidth per launch, leading to an "order of magnitude or more increase in Starlink network growth, gated by Starship."
* SpaceX has numerous interconnected business lines: launch, Starlink (home broadband, direct to cell), AI agents, AI compute, Orbital AI, SpaceX AI (Grok business), Terrafab collaboration with Tesla, and the X platform.
* **The "Work" Required:** All three individuals (Adam Jonas, Sean, Aaron) and the speaker agree that understanding SpaceX requires "extremely hard work," deep thought, and significant mental energy to grasp all the interconnected parts and long-term potential. The speaker mentions dedicating full-time hours to his 20-year Tesla and SpaceX valuation model, which for SpaceX alone covers 9 business lines, over 10,000 formulas, a couple thousand numeric values, and over 2,000 editable cells.
* **Opportunity:** The speaker and others believe the "gaping chasm" between what people think SpaceX is and what it actually is and will do represents a significant investment opportunity for those willing to "do the work" and model the company themselves. The speaker also posits that Tesla investors who understand SpaceX would favor a merger between the two companies.
* **Call to Action:** The speaker strongly urges listeners to build their own detailed, long-term valuation models for SpaceX, asserting it's "mandatory" to truly understand the company's opportunity.