The Tesla Semi has finally come to market after its prototype design was first unveiled in 2017, taking "the better part of a decade to come to market." This "massive disruptor" is now poised to change the entire industry.
Elon Musk, speaking at the Tesla Semi event, expressed excitement about starting production, calling it a "revolutionary truck" capable of carrying the "heaviest loads over very long distances" with ease of recharge from "mega charger that's capable of a megawatt of power." He highlighted its "phenomenal" nature as a "driver's truck" due to its acceleration, making it "almost like a sports car in truck form" and the "funnest truck to drive." Musk also mentioned that "in the very near future we'll be adding in the self-driving features" to improve safety and comfort for drivers on long journeys, ensuring they arrive "refreshed." Economically, he stated, "it's going to make a ton of sense economically" because the "cost of electricity per mile is much less than the cost of diesel especially in these crazy times." The waiting list for the Tesla Semi is already "pretty significant."
The podcast's speaker emphasized that from a commercial standpoint, the Tesla Semi is a "no-brainer" due to "ongoing operational cost a fraction that of a diesel truck." He noted that the "cost of fuel alone eg diesel over roughly five years for a typical full-time truck" far exceeds the purchase price of the truck, and "maintenance and repairs can cost roughly half the entire cost of what a truck would have cost." Electric vehicles, including the Tesla Semi, have "far fewer moving parts" than diesel trucks, leading to significantly lower repair and maintenance costs. The dramatically lower cost of electricity versus diesel means "Tesla Semis will pay for themselves within just a few years."
On-screen estimates for a 10-year cost of ownership showed a Tesla Semi at $750,000 (without battery pack replacement) or $870,000 (with an assumed $120,000 pack replacement) compared to a diesel truck at $1.105 million (moderate fuel prices) or $1.485 million (or $1.5 million) with diesel at $6.50 a gallon, indicating the "Tesla Semi roughly half the cost over 10 years."
The Tesla Semi can go "up to 500 miles loaded," consumes "about 1.7 kilowatt per mile," and can recover "roughly 60 percent of its range in 30 minutes" with mega-chargers. Large fleet operators like Walmart, DHL, and Pepsico are excited, with a "shipper coalition recently selected Tesla as the primary supplier for an order of 2500 electric class 8 trucks." DHL's excitement is particularly meaningful as they "actually tested it." Axios reported Tesla's comparison showing diesel fuel costing "roughly 80 cents a mile recently versus a 20 to 30 cents mile for electricity."
Concerns were raised on the PBD podcast about "truck stop operators" and "charging infrastructure companies" being worried, and that "small trucking companies cannot build depot charging" like larger corporations. Long-haul operators noted that 500 miles is less than the 1000+ miles a diesel truck can travel between fills. However, the speaker countered that 500 miles is "more than enough for 80, 90 plus percent of use cases" given legal driving hour limits and the rapid charging capabilities.
Tom on the PBD podcast described the Tesla Semi as "disruption" and "opportunity," suggesting that smaller truckers might need to merge or partner with larger ones due to economic stress from diesel prices. Adam (on PBD) warned that "disruption is coming" to the driving industry, citing "Waymos with no drivers" and self-driving semi trucks, and suggesting that "four million professional drivers out there," including "two million driving big rigs," might "not have a job for much longer." Patrick Bet-David also mentioned SpaceX Starship rocket "successfully reached orbit" and "deployed its v3 Starlink satellites for the first time," marking its "first revenue generating flight" one hour prior to the podcast.
Adam Wingfield, an "over-the-road truck driver" with a CDL who was initially "very cynical or skeptical" about electric vehicles, drove the Tesla Semi as a "bobtail unit" and "hooked up to a trailer." He described it as his "first electric vehicle driving outside of driving a go-kart." His experience was overwhelmingly positive:
* He found the "regenerative braking" unique, rarely using the physical brake.
* The acceleration was impressive; the truck "walked that hill" (an 8% grade with 70,000+ pounds) with "no problems," leading him to question if the trailer was even loaded.
* Tesla made "significant changes from gen one" based on customer feedback from companies like Pepsi.
* The manufacturing facility is "1.7 million square foot," able to produce "1,000 trucks a week" with "full of automation full of robots."
* He believes the "Tesla Semi is going to change the direction of the industry."
* The centerline driving position felt like being "in a cockpit of a machine," and "cameras everywhere" eliminated blind spots, making backing a trailer "so easy."
* Changes from Gen 1 included cut-in small windows (as the main side windows don't go up/down) and screen updates.
* Adhering to the philosophy "the best part is no part," the truck has only "three buttons in the entire truck," reducing potential points of failure.
* Maintenance is minimal, with 250,000 miles before an oil change (reduced from three oils to one), and no belts or hoses.
* The absence of a differential provides "100% smooth" driving without "tractor lift."
* Adam called it "truly a dream to drive" and encouraged skeptics to try it.
* His only remaining skepticism was the 500-mile range for "long-haul applications," but he acknowledged Tesla's explanation that more range adds weight and lowers payload. He believes it will shift the industry towards automating long-haul lanes and shortening driver routes to 500 miles or less.
* He noted partnerships with companies like Pilot Flying J to install more chargers.
* While diesel might remain "king long haul," electric tractors are superior for "short hauls," "regional local application," and "P&D applications," and are "much more comfortable to drive than a diesel."
The overall conclusion was that the Tesla Semi "is going to deeply penetrate the trucking industry," becoming a "financial no-brainer" with "driver comfort" as an added benefit, lower operational costs, and reduced maintenance. The industry, it was asserted, "will never haul the same again."