The speaker begins by testing the FSD reactivation feature, believed to have launched in 14.3.9 and now on 14.3.10. Tapping the brake disengaged FSD, and the system reactivated, showing a new message on the screen, which the speaker found "so, so, so cool" and praised the Tesla AI team.
**Starship Flight 14 Debrief:**
* **Orbital Insertion:** Starship successfully reached orbit for the first time, deploying 26 Starlink V3 satellites.
* **Starlink V3:** These satellites achieved contact via laser links, ground stations, and user terminals. They will undergo checkouts and raise orbits before serving customers, likely not meaningfully changing service until Q2 next year when around a thousand V3s are operational. The speaker notes claims of faster Starlink are premature.
* **Booster Issues:** A single Raptor engine on the booster shut down during the initial climb. Hot staging was successful. Super Heavy relit 31 of 33 planned Raptor engines for the boost backburn, then 11 of 13 for the high thrust landing burn, reducing to five, then three engines before splashing down in the Gulf. The flight termination system (FTS) was triggered upon landing burn shutdown as a safety demonstration.
* **Ship Issues:** A single Raptor vacuum engine shut down early during ascent. Starship still achieved its suborbital trajectory by burning the remaining five engines longer. It then reignited a single Raptor sea level engine for orbital insertion.
* **Orbit Duration:** Nominally, six orbits were expected, but only two were completed due to engine issues during ascent, as a precaution.
* **De-orbit & Landing:** Starship relit a single Raptor sea level engine for its first de-orbit burn, re-entered, and relit all three Raptor sea level engines for a landing burn and flip maneuver before splashing down on target in the Pacific Ocean.
* **Capacity:** Rob noted that SpaceX added more Starlink capacity in an hour than in the first 1.5 years of launches.
* **Stock Price & Monetization:** The speaker speculates on whether increased capacity will translate to cash for the company and if new tiers or higher costs will emerge for faster service.
* **Ship 41 Landing:** Marcus House stated Ship 41 would not be recovered, showing an explosion upon water contact, contrasting with Ship 40's landing on Flight 13.
* **Engine Performance (Booster):** On Flight 13, only 8 of 13 engines relit for the booster landing, whereas on Flight 14, 11 of 13 lit successfully.
* **Flight 15 Predictions:** The speaker does not expect a catch on Flight 15, anticipating another orbital insertion attempt with a goal for more than two orbits and 100% engine functionality. If a catch is attempted, it's more likely for the ship than the booster.
* **Starlink Future:** Elon Musk reiterated that Starlink is increasingly probable to carry the majority of Earth's IP traffic long term, effectively becoming the internet.
* **Rapid Reusability:** The speaker emphasizes that catching both ships is crucial for rapid reusability and low cost.
* **Launch Cadence:** Elon Musk stated Starship is two to three years away from hourly flights. The current cadence shows 63 and 66 days between recent flights.
* **Payload Cost:** Flight 14 deployed 26 V3 satellites, estimated at 52 tons. At $110 million per launch, this is roughly $2.1 million per ton, which is already in Falcon 9's cost-per-ton territory (around $2 million per ton for 15 tons at $30 million). This was a fully expendable Starship carrying less than half its capacity.
* **Historical Coincidence:** Starship reached orbit exactly 18 years to the day after the Falcon 1 rocket. Eric Berger suggested "orbit day" should be a perpetual company holiday.
* **Flight 15 Outlook:** Engine challenges will influence SpaceX's plans for Flight 15, likely involving another test run with splashdown.
* **Catch Timeline:** The speaker believes catching both ships won't happen until early 2027, which will be a major inflection point for launch pace.
* **Flight Duration:** The flight lasted about three hours, instead of the anticipated nine.
**Tesla Robotaxi/Cybertaxi:**
* **Registered Vehicles:** Tesla has 546 total vehicles registered in Texas for the Robotaxi network, with 126 (23%) being Cybercabs.
* **Fleet Growth:** 232 vehicles were added in September, nearly doubling the fleet.
* **Active Vehicles:** Anecdotally, 70-100 vehicles are active daily, leading the speaker to believe Tesla is preparing for a future event, possibly the X takeover event on October 10th.
* **Cybercab Registration:** 126 Cybercabs were registered in just 29 days, exceeding the speaker's expectations.
* **Recent Update:** Tesla sent a notification saying the Cybercab fleet has doubled, with more rides available.
* **New Feature:** A new Robotaxi feature auto-opens the trunk at the end of a ride if it was opened before the ride, confirmed to only open after a door is opened.
* **Customer Experience (Anecdote):** Josh reported a negative experience where a Robotaxi dropped them off a few blocks from the destination, support was ineffective and couldn't see the destination, and a refund request was denied.
* **Elon's Commercial Plans:** Elon Musk stated Cybercab will soon operate commercially in Florida, Nevada, and other states, and in California by mid-next year.
**Grok Models:**
* **Grok 4.7:** Elon Musk admitted 4.7 might have been a letdown relative to expectations but emphasized its excellence for real-world engineering, both current and future.
* **Contrast:** This is contrasted with Anthropic's models, which are excellent for software engineers.
* **Tesla/SpaceX Use:** Tesla and SpaceX engineers are already using Grok models.
* **Enterprise Adoption:** The speaker believes Grok has a serious edge in enterprise adoption due to its focus on real-world engineering and training data from Tesla/SpaceX. Grok is expected to improve for software use cases as well.
**Optimus:**
* **Hand Design Challenges (Rumors):** Reports, primarily from "The Information," suggest Optimus's hand is so intricate that current assembly equipment cannot reliably build it. Also, Tesla's workforce is reportedly refusing to wear motion capture suits for training, fearing job displacement.
* **Skepticism:** The speaker is skeptical about the motion capture claim, noting Tesla has largely moved to camera-only data gathering.
* **Hand Mechanics:** The Optimus hand has a tendon-driven architecture with 25 actuators per arm in the forearm, using three thin control cables per actuator for a positional accuracy of .08 millimeters.
* **Manufacturing Issues:** Automotive-grade equipment struggles with the sub-millimeter tolerances needed for the hand's cable channels and joint assemblies, leading to significant rework. Touch sensors are also unreliable. Tesla's response is a replaceable glove-type modular sensor layer.
* **Components:** The hand requires over 100 screws and micro components, which mature industrial suppliers haven't consistently delivered at volume.
* **Output Increase:** Tesla reportedly increased Optimus output tenfold, from dozens per week in Q2 to several hundred per week by August, targeting over 1,000 per week by year-end, with a long-term goal of 20,000 per week (1 million units per year from Fremont).
* **Regulatory Concerns:** The FCC banned new foreign-made humanoid robots from the U.S. market in July, though individual components from suppliers like Ningbo are currently outside the ban's scope. Tighter restrictions on components may be coming.
* **Commercial Strategy:** Early Optimus V3 units will be leased to select warehouse customers rather than sold outright, offering flexibility. Full commercial sales aren't expected before late 2027.
* **Speaker's Opinion:** The speaker cautions against high expectations for scale but finds the "hundreds per week" report bullish, considering the challenges. They reiterate that Tesla chose to design a cutting-edge hand, making challenges expected.
**Roadster Unveil:**
* The Roadster Unveil event was rescheduled to October 15th due to severe weather predictions for an outdoor event.
**FSD in EU:**
* There will be no vote on Tesla's supervised FSD at the October 6th TCMB meeting; it's delayed until at least December.
* The Swedish Transportation Authority recommended voting no unless Tesla removes the speed offset feature. Other countries like France have their own concerns. The speaker notes this aligns with their initial prediction that countries would drag their feet.
**Closing:**
* This video is Part 1, with Part 2 coming tomorrow.
* Tesla stock closed at $357.45 (down 3.94%).
* SpaceX stock closed at $145.47 (down 2.16%).
* The NDX was down 1.08%.
* ZocDoc was mentioned as the video's sponsor.