Here's a summary of the podcast, including all news, facts, and opinions:
The host, Dylan Lewis, discusses the potential merger of Tesla and SpaceX, stating that Elon Musk's recent comments about "so much close collaboration" and "management team has some overlap" are "by far the strongest indication" received that a merger is intended. Questions remain regarding price, timing, Giga Shanghai, and Tesla shareholders' ownership in the new entity. Lewis suggests he would prefer the merger to happen "sooner rather than later to get rid of the overhang." He notes that this is the deepest into a calendar year that Tesla has gone without announcing its annual shareholder meeting, which usually happens between April and August, leading him to believe there's "at least a chance that the announcement is being delayed because the Tesla team and the lawyers and that SpaceX are all working on the details."
Lewis believes that the sooner the merger happens, the harder it will be for SpaceX to make an attractive offer to Tesla shareholders, who are "feeling like we're going to need quite the premium" due to waiting years for Robotaxi and Optimus to scale. He argues that the market hasn't "paid us for our patience." Conversely, if the merger were pushed to late next year, he's "pretty confident a year from now the scale of Tesla's Robotaxi business will finally look materially different," potentially repricing Tesla stock to the upside. Based on today's figures, Lewis hopes for a Tesla stock price "somewhere north of $500 per share," with $550 per share representing "roughly a 55% premium from today's share price." He clarifies that this figure depends on many factors, including SpaceX's valuation and the fate of Tesla China, and that an offer below $500 wouldn't be an "immediate no." He concludes the merger discussion by stating that if Elon Musk truly intended to keep the companies separate, he would have "poured cold water on all of the rumors and speculation" when asked directly. Lewis believes an announcement could come as soon as the Roadster event, more likely at this year's annual shareholder meeting, but acknowledges it could be delayed until next year's meeting.
Regarding AI safety, Elon Musk wants AI competitors to test each other's models using "safety harnesses" to spot blind spots, with mechanisms to protect IP. This is seen as a faster solution than waiting for regulatory bodies. Elon "seems to think that China would agree to something like that."
Dan Priestley delivered a keynote for the Tesla Semi in Europe, emphasizing Tesla's "full service" offering to make adoption easy for European companies. He reported that the Tesla Semi fleet has now driven 28 million kilometers in total, with 19 million driven by customers and 400,000 in pilot operations. Mega charger rollout in Europe is set to begin in 2027 with 100 stalls, each at 1.2 megawatts, though the European Semi will be limited to 800 kilowatts, with a potential software update for full 1.2MW down the road. The charging hardware is as capable as in the US. He reiterated that the base charger does not require a separate cabinet, is listed for 17,000 euros, delivers 120 kilowatts, and can be daisy-chained to split and deliver 40 kilowatts each if a fleet is AC limited, offering "nice flexibility." Tesla is now making Semis for customers in Nevada for both North America and the EU, with EU deliveries not starting until 2027, but Tesla "will continue to look at localization production opportunities" in Europe.
SpaceX announced that the flight window for Starship Flight 14 is set to open on September 22nd, at 7:15 a.m. Central Time. This flight marks several "very big milestones": the first orbital launch and the first deployment of Starlink V3 satellites. Elon Musk stated, "I think it's extremely likely we will achieve full reusability with rapid reflight next year in 2027." The flight is expected to complete approximately 6 orbits over nearly 10 hours, with splashdown in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile. The booster's primary objectives include a successful launch, stage separation, boost back burn, and landing burn at an offshore point in the Gulf of America. The upper stage objectives include orbital insertion, deployment of 26 Starlink V3 sats, a de-orbit burn using a single Raptor, controlled re-entry, descent, and splashdown. No catches are planned for Flight 14. This flight should add 26 terabits per second of capacity to the Starlink network (10 times the capacity of a single Falcon 9 V2 mini sat launch), with V3 satellites serving customers "as soon as a few weeks after launch." Three V3 satellites have been modified with cameras to scan Starship's heat shield. Heat shield upgrades include additional retention mechanisms, addressing flow paths, and curved tile designs. Two tiles recovered from Ship 40 will be re-flown on Ship 41, marking the first tile reuse. Catching will be for Flight 15.
SpaceX also announced its first official commercial Starfall customer: Space Cargo, aiming to fly in 2028 on the first commercial Starship mission. Starfall is an aluminum housing with a 10-foot-wide heat shield for microgravity research. Space Cargo acts as an integrator, packaging research projects into its "bento box" hardware for placement in Starfall. This "emerging business of returning payloads from space is valuable for customers like drug makers relying on the microgravity of space for research and production."
Shifting to Tesla's CyberCab, NHTSA has demanded answers by September 30th on whether Tesla properly self-certified the CyberCab, including questions about temporarily installed human driver controls and whether occupants can move the vehicle via the touchscreen (which should be limited to first responders/police/Tesla staff). NHTSA also seeks information on maximum speed, geography, or time of day limits and other restrictions. Tesla has 15 days to respond. The CyberCab is also coming to Australia and New Zealand, with a tour starting in Sydney "this month" and running through 2027.
In Norway, 200,000 Teslas are now registered, representing "around 20% of EVs in the country." CyberCab age restrictions state that children under 13 cannot ride, while teenagers 13-17 can ride with an adult. For the Model Y, children 8-17 can ride with an adult, but anyone under 8 cannot. Tesla is "quietly behind the scenes" deploying CyberCabs across the country, with over 20 spotted in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and similar deployments happening in "dozens of cities."
Tesla Charging unveiled its first "Accordion Supercharger." The goal is to pre-assemble all Superchargers in a factory. The Accordion style is for sites where posts cannot be installed behind a curb, allowing them to be placed "between parking spaces." This solution offers 16 stalls per truck shipment, is "20% cheaper to install, instant commissioning, and the highest quality." This new Accordion solution is different from the folding units previously discussed, which were for normal layouts. The host praises this as "more innovation from Tesla charging that will largely go overlooked."
Tesla stock closed the day at $356.58, down 0.67%. SpaceX closed at $143.49, down 3.15%, while the NDX was down 0.65%.