Dylan Loomis opens the show by acknowledging his absence last week was painful and hints at a future story about his biggest career swing, which has been "completely nuked by forces totally outside of [his] control," resulting in a "zero" for what was supposed to be a multi-year project. He thanks listeners for their prayers and announces a renewed focus for Electrified.
He then describes the CyberCab event as largely a distraction, despite the drama and public praise for its cost-effectiveness and design genius. Loomis states that while the hardware is incredible, without the proper software (V15) to control the vehicles at scale, the hardware is useless. He emphasizes that "all eyes on version 15" should be the focus for investors. He references Mike on X, who noted Tesla's launches in Tampa and Orlando before the Q2 earnings call are still small beta pilot situations a month later. Chuck Cook on X confirmed that Tesla engineers at the CyberCab event answered hard questions by saying, "wait on V15," suggesting everything hinges on this software update. Loomis acknowledges listener skepticism due to past promises of "next release breakthroughs" but believes the engineers and Elon will eventually be right.
Loomis follows up on Dr. Know-It-All's video about FSD's "final boss" – recognizing thin horizontal objects. He shared an anecdote of his Tesla Model 3 on 14.3.8 successfully recognizing a yellow chain-link fence head-on, reversing, and exiting a parking lot. He clarifies this is a single anecdote and doesn't mean the problem is fully solved, especially since it was a head-on approach. He notes past FSD versions wouldn't recognize such chains. While Elon stated Tesla isn't using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) "that much anymore," Loomis believes they are still likely used in the vision aspect as an initial, fast "eyes layer" to spot patterns like edges, shapes, and eventually more complex objects like faces or wheels, with "pooling" reducing image size for wider context. He asserts that this is a challenging but not unsolvable problem, suggesting solutions like retaining higher image resolution or utilizing context windows (improved memory), which Tesla and Elon have identified as a current limiting factor. He expresses confidence that V15 and future dot releases will address this as part of the "seven new technologies."
Regarding CyberCab operations, Ethan McConaugh reported 16 rides post-event with no looping, indicating improved pickup and drop-off behavior. However, suggestions included dynamic pickup wait times (like Waymo) to prevent CyberCabs from blocking roads during the seven-minute waiting period for riders. Loomis speculates CyberCab might be using an even newer version of V15. The RoboTaxi tracker shows Tesla has 437 total vehicles in Texas, with 49 CyberCabs. Florida cities, confirmed by David Moss, have 7 vehicles each (not 15 as previously assumed) and are still pilots, operating for 50-68 days, highlighting a slow rollout pace.
Tesla confirmed dynamic pricing for RoboTaxi, meaning pricing fluctuates based on supply and demand, making fixed price comparisons unreliable. An example from Abhimanyu showed a CyberCab ride being slightly more expensive ($17.32) than a Model Y ride ($17.08).
Loomis discusses Tesla's form gauging interest for CyberCab fleet expansion, with Sawyer reporting 73,000 clicks and Eric from Tesla (lead CyberCab engineer) confirming tens of thousands filled it out before deleting the post. Loomis believes this was deleted because fleet expansion is "a long ways away," citing numerous unanswered questions for potential operators regarding pricing, insurance, title ownership, operational domains, upkeep, revenue split, liability, resale, competition from Tesla's own fleets, and operating in harsh weather like snow. He doesn't expect news on this "anytime this year," and if so, it would be limited to current geofence cities, with a "best case scenario" being a small-scale pilot in Austin.
He points out Tesla might be in a holding pattern due to NHTSA's Audit Query (AQ) regarding CyberCab's self-certification. This process could take months, especially with Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) in flux. Loomis corrects the misunderstanding that the "1,000 CyberCab" number in the query signifies an immediate launch, stating it's a placeholder for the investigation's scope. He emphasizes that legally, Tesla can only operate 49 CyberCabs in Texas, and significant scaling or sales to fleet owners won't happen until the AQ is resolved.
Controversy surrounds CyberCab doors. David Moss's "banana tests" showed passenger doors detecting obstacles well, but trunk doors failed in some spots, crushing bananas. Texas Tesla's tests showed doors not detecting cardboard boxes. Tesla has since reached out to Texas Tesla, promising a CyberCab software update. Josh West noted that doors can be stopped manually. Joe Tepmeyer observed CyberCabs are now rolling off the production line with Starlink V5 modules on the hatch, suggesting a shift to production phase. Loomis questions if Starlink will be available for passengers or solely for Tesla's bandwidth needs. Kyle Connor confirmed no AC charging, meaning CyberCabs rely entirely on the Supercharger network, another reason fleet purchases are distant. Josh West also shared an anecdote of a canceled CyberCab ride, highlighting ongoing software bugs. Loomis points out that minor bugs on a few dozen cars escalate to major problems when scaled to hundreds.
Elon's statement about CyberCab being optimized for the "lowest possible cost per mile, fully loaded" is highlighted. Despite the challenges, Loomis affirms the CyberCab launch was an "incredible and a huge milestone." He notes Elon's hope for CyberCabs in Europe "soon," but Loomis is skeptical, predicting 2027 due to regulatory hurdles for supervised FSD.
The Austin Fire Department expressed concerns about CyberCab blocking city streets due to the lack of traditional controls, even though Tesla is training them on the dashboard touchscreen. A fire captain criticized the technology as unproven, citing potential touchscreen failures from gloves, sweat, dust, cracks, or power loss, and issues with speed and finesse. Loomis notes this skepticism exists despite Austin being a forward-thinking city for autonomy.
Finally, app code suggests Tesla might offer robotaxis as loaner alternatives during service in the future. The biggest news from the CyberCab event was Tesla surpassing 1 million unsupervised miles, up from 380,000 in Q2, indicating a 17% week-over-week growth (above 10% guidance). Loomis contrasts this with Waymo's "well over 220 million unsupervised miles" to illustrate Tesla's still-small (though growing) sample size. FSD 14.2 Lite is rolling out to Hardware 3 vehicles, and FSD 14.3.9 to some Hardware 4 users.
The episode concludes with Tesla stock at $367.81 (down 0.1%) and SpaceX at $147.55 (down 3.86%), with the NDX down 0.29%.