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Electrified - Why Tesla's Cybercab Is a Distraction ⚡️

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迪伦·卢米斯(Dylan Loomis)节目开场,承认他上周的缺席令人痛苦,并透露了一个未来的故事,关于他职业生涯中最大的冒险,该冒险“完全被[他]无法控制的力量摧毁”,导致一个本应是多年项目的努力化为“零”。他感谢听众的祈祷,并宣布“Electrified”将重新聚焦。 接着,他将CyberCab活动描述为很大程度上是一种干扰,尽管伴随着戏剧性事件,以及公众对其成本效益和设计天才的赞扬。卢米斯指出,尽管硬件令人难以置信,但如果没有合适的软件(V15)来大规模控制这些车辆,硬件将毫无用处。他强调,“所有目光都应集中在版本15上”应该是投资者关注的焦点。他引用了X上的Mike,Mike指出特斯拉在第二季度财报电话会议之前在坦帕(Tampa)和奥兰多(Orlando)的推出,一个月后仍然是小规模的beta测试情况。X上的查克·库克(Chuck Cook)证实,CyberCab活动中特斯拉的工程师在回答尖锐问题时都说“等V15”,这表明一切都取决于这个软件更新。卢米斯承认,由于过去“下一版本突破”的承诺,听众持怀疑态度,但他相信工程师和埃隆(Elon)最终会是对的。 卢米斯跟进了“无所不知博士”(Dr. Know-It-All)关于FSD“最终Boss”——识别细长水平物体——的视频。他分享了一个轶事:他的特斯拉Model 3在14.3.8版本上,成功地正面识别了一个黄色的链式围栏,然后倒车驶出停车场。他澄清这只是一个单一的轶事,并不意味着问题已完全解决,特别是因为它是正面识别。他指出过去的FSD版本无法识别此类链条。尽管埃隆表示特斯拉“不再那么频繁地”使用卷积神经网络(CNNs),但卢米斯认为它们仍可能用于视觉方面,作为最初的、快速的“眼睛层”,用于识别边缘、形状等模式,并最终识别更复杂的物体,如人脸或车轮,“池化”(pooling)则用于缩小图像尺寸以获取更广阔的上下文信息。他断言这是一个具有挑战性但并非无法解决的问题,提出了诸如保留更高图像分辨率或利用上下文窗口(改进的记忆功能)等解决方案,特斯拉和埃隆已将其确定为当前的限制因素。他表示相信V15和未来的小版本发布将解决这个问题,作为“七项新技术”的一部分。 关于CyberCab的运营,伊桑·麦康纳(Ethan McConaugh)报告称,活动后进行了16次乘车,没有出现循环驾驶,这表明接送行为有所改善。然而,建议包括动态调整接车等待时间(如Waymo),以防止CyberCabs在乘客七分钟的等待期内堵塞道路。卢米斯猜测CyberCab可能正在使用更新的V15版本。RoboTaxi追踪器显示,特斯拉在德克萨斯州共有437辆车,其中有49辆是CyberCabs。佛罗里达州的城市,经大卫·莫斯(David Moss)证实,每个城市有7辆车(而非此前认为的15辆),且仍处于试点阶段,已运行50-68天,这突显了缓慢的推广速度。 特斯拉证实RoboTaxi采用动态定价,这意味着价格会根据供需波动,使得固定价格比较不可靠。阿比曼努(Abhimanyu)提供的一个例子显示,CyberCab的一次乘车费用略高于(17.32美元)Model Y的乘车费用(17.08美元)。 卢米斯讨论了特斯拉关于衡量CyberCab车队扩张兴趣的表格,索耶(Sawyer)报告称有73,000次点击,特斯拉的埃里克(Eric,CyberCab首席工程师)证实有数万人填写了该表格,之后该帖子被删除。卢米斯认为该帖子被删除是因为车队扩张“还很遥远”,他列举了潜在运营商面临的许多未解决问题,包括定价、保险、所有权、运营区域、维护、收入分成、责任、转售、来自特斯拉自有车队的竞争,以及在恶劣天气(如雪)下的运营。他不认为“今年内”会有这方面的消息,如果有,也将仅限于当前的地理围栏城市,“最好的情况”也只是在奥斯汀进行小规模试点。 他指出,由于美国国家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)对CyberCab自认证的审计查询(AQ),特斯拉可能处于观望状态。这个过程可能需要数月,尤其是在《联邦机动车安全标准》(FMVSS)不断变化的情况下。卢米斯纠正了一个误解,即查询中“1,000辆CyberCab”的数字意味着立即发布,他指出这只是调查范围的占位符。他强调,从法律上讲,特斯拉在德克萨斯州只能运营49辆CyberCab,在AQ解决之前,大规模推广或向车队所有者销售都不会发生。 CyberCab的车门问题引发了争议。大卫·莫斯(David Moss)的“香蕉测试”显示,乘客门在障碍物检测方面表现良好,但后备箱门在某些地方失败,压碎了香蕉。德克萨斯州特斯拉(Texas Tesla)的测试显示,车门未能检测到纸箱。特斯拉此后已联系德克萨斯州特斯拉,承诺提供CyberCab软件更新。乔什·韦斯特(Josh West)指出,车门可以手动停止。乔·特普迈尔(Joe Tepmeyer)观察到,CyberCabs现在正从生产线下线,后备箱上带有Starlink V5模块,这表明已转向生产阶段。卢米斯质疑Starlink是供乘客使用,还是仅用于特斯拉的带宽需求。凯尔·康纳(Kyle Connor)证实没有交流充电,这意味着CyberCabs完全依赖于超级充电网络,这是车队采购仍遥遥无期的另一个原因。乔什·韦斯特还分享了一个关于CyberCab乘车被取消的轶事,凸显了持续存在的软件错误。卢米斯指出,几十辆车上的小错误,扩展到数百辆时就会升级为大问题。 埃隆关于CyberCab已优化为“满载情况下每英里成本最低”的声明被强调。尽管面临挑战,卢米斯肯定CyberCab的推出是一个“令人难以置信的巨大里程碑”。他指出埃隆希望CyberCabs“很快”能在欧洲推出,但卢米斯对此持怀疑态度,预计要到2027年,原因是受监管的FSD面临监管障碍。 奥斯汀消防部门(Austin Fire Department)对CyberCab阻塞城市街道表示担忧,因为它缺乏传统控制,尽管特斯拉正在通过仪表板触摸屏对其进行培训。一位消防队长批评这项技术未经证实,理由是触摸屏可能因手套、汗水、灰尘、裂缝或电源故障而失灵,以及速度和精度方面的问题。卢米斯指出,尽管奥斯汀是自动驾驶领域思想超前的城市,这种怀疑态度依然存在。 最后,应用程序代码表明,特斯拉未来可能会在维修期间提供RoboTaxi作为代步车。CyberCab活动中最大的新闻是,特斯拉的无监督行驶里程突破100万英里,高于第二季度的38万英里,表明周环比增长17%(高于10%的指导目标)。卢米斯将其与Waymo“远超2.2亿英里”的无监督行驶里程进行对比,以说明特斯拉的样本量(尽管在增长)仍然很小。FSD 14.2 Lite正在向硬件3车辆推出,FSD 14.3.9正在向部分硬件4用户推出。 本期节目最后,特斯拉(Tesla)股价报367.81美元(下跌0.1%),SpaceX股价报147.55美元(下跌3.86%),纳斯达克综合指数(NDX)下跌0.29%。

Dylan Loomis opens the show by acknowledging his absence last week was painful and hints at a future story about his biggest career swing, which has been "completely nuked by forces totally outside of [his] control," resulting in a "zero" for what was supposed to be a multi-year project. He thanks listeners for their prayers and announces a renewed focus for Electrified. He then describes the CyberCab event as largely a distraction, despite the drama and public praise for its cost-effectiveness and design genius. Loomis states that while the hardware is incredible, without the proper software (V15) to control the vehicles at scale, the hardware is useless. He emphasizes that "all eyes on version 15" should be the focus for investors. He references Mike on X, who noted Tesla's launches in Tampa and Orlando before the Q2 earnings call are still small beta pilot situations a month later. Chuck Cook on X confirmed that Tesla engineers at the CyberCab event answered hard questions by saying, "wait on V15," suggesting everything hinges on this software update. Loomis acknowledges listener skepticism due to past promises of "next release breakthroughs" but believes the engineers and Elon will eventually be right. Loomis follows up on Dr. Know-It-All's video about FSD's "final boss" – recognizing thin horizontal objects. He shared an anecdote of his Tesla Model 3 on 14.3.8 successfully recognizing a yellow chain-link fence head-on, reversing, and exiting a parking lot. He clarifies this is a single anecdote and doesn't mean the problem is fully solved, especially since it was a head-on approach. He notes past FSD versions wouldn't recognize such chains. While Elon stated Tesla isn't using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) "that much anymore," Loomis believes they are still likely used in the vision aspect as an initial, fast "eyes layer" to spot patterns like edges, shapes, and eventually more complex objects like faces or wheels, with "pooling" reducing image size for wider context. He asserts that this is a challenging but not unsolvable problem, suggesting solutions like retaining higher image resolution or utilizing context windows (improved memory), which Tesla and Elon have identified as a current limiting factor. He expresses confidence that V15 and future dot releases will address this as part of the "seven new technologies." Regarding CyberCab operations, Ethan McConaugh reported 16 rides post-event with no looping, indicating improved pickup and drop-off behavior. However, suggestions included dynamic pickup wait times (like Waymo) to prevent CyberCabs from blocking roads during the seven-minute waiting period for riders. Loomis speculates CyberCab might be using an even newer version of V15. The RoboTaxi tracker shows Tesla has 437 total vehicles in Texas, with 49 CyberCabs. Florida cities, confirmed by David Moss, have 7 vehicles each (not 15 as previously assumed) and are still pilots, operating for 50-68 days, highlighting a slow rollout pace. Tesla confirmed dynamic pricing for RoboTaxi, meaning pricing fluctuates based on supply and demand, making fixed price comparisons unreliable. An example from Abhimanyu showed a CyberCab ride being slightly more expensive ($17.32) than a Model Y ride ($17.08). Loomis discusses Tesla's form gauging interest for CyberCab fleet expansion, with Sawyer reporting 73,000 clicks and Eric from Tesla (lead CyberCab engineer) confirming tens of thousands filled it out before deleting the post. Loomis believes this was deleted because fleet expansion is "a long ways away," citing numerous unanswered questions for potential operators regarding pricing, insurance, title ownership, operational domains, upkeep, revenue split, liability, resale, competition from Tesla's own fleets, and operating in harsh weather like snow. He doesn't expect news on this "anytime this year," and if so, it would be limited to current geofence cities, with a "best case scenario" being a small-scale pilot in Austin. He points out Tesla might be in a holding pattern due to NHTSA's Audit Query (AQ) regarding CyberCab's self-certification. This process could take months, especially with Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) in flux. Loomis corrects the misunderstanding that the "1,000 CyberCab" number in the query signifies an immediate launch, stating it's a placeholder for the investigation's scope. He emphasizes that legally, Tesla can only operate 49 CyberCabs in Texas, and significant scaling or sales to fleet owners won't happen until the AQ is resolved. Controversy surrounds CyberCab doors. David Moss's "banana tests" showed passenger doors detecting obstacles well, but trunk doors failed in some spots, crushing bananas. Texas Tesla's tests showed doors not detecting cardboard boxes. Tesla has since reached out to Texas Tesla, promising a CyberCab software update. Josh West noted that doors can be stopped manually. Joe Tepmeyer observed CyberCabs are now rolling off the production line with Starlink V5 modules on the hatch, suggesting a shift to production phase. Loomis questions if Starlink will be available for passengers or solely for Tesla's bandwidth needs. Kyle Connor confirmed no AC charging, meaning CyberCabs rely entirely on the Supercharger network, another reason fleet purchases are distant. Josh West also shared an anecdote of a canceled CyberCab ride, highlighting ongoing software bugs. Loomis points out that minor bugs on a few dozen cars escalate to major problems when scaled to hundreds. Elon's statement about CyberCab being optimized for the "lowest possible cost per mile, fully loaded" is highlighted. Despite the challenges, Loomis affirms the CyberCab launch was an "incredible and a huge milestone." He notes Elon's hope for CyberCabs in Europe "soon," but Loomis is skeptical, predicting 2027 due to regulatory hurdles for supervised FSD. The Austin Fire Department expressed concerns about CyberCab blocking city streets due to the lack of traditional controls, even though Tesla is training them on the dashboard touchscreen. A fire captain criticized the technology as unproven, citing potential touchscreen failures from gloves, sweat, dust, cracks, or power loss, and issues with speed and finesse. Loomis notes this skepticism exists despite Austin being a forward-thinking city for autonomy. Finally, app code suggests Tesla might offer robotaxis as loaner alternatives during service in the future. The biggest news from the CyberCab event was Tesla surpassing 1 million unsupervised miles, up from 380,000 in Q2, indicating a 17% week-over-week growth (above 10% guidance). Loomis contrasts this with Waymo's "well over 220 million unsupervised miles" to illustrate Tesla's still-small (though growing) sample size. FSD 14.2 Lite is rolling out to Hardware 3 vehicles, and FSD 14.3.9 to some Hardware 4 users. The episode concludes with Tesla stock at $367.81 (down 0.1%) and SpaceX at $147.55 (down 3.86%), with the NDX down 0.29%.