This video features legendary multi-billionaire investor Ron Baron, who, after **56 years** in his career, declares he has "never seen a single company like SpaceX." He believes SpaceX is poised to "go up **20, 30, 40 times**."
**SpaceX's Future Projections (Ron Baron's View):**
* **Overall Company:** He projects "$3 trillion of revenues in **10 years**" leading to "**$700 or $800 billion of profits a year**." The entire company is currently valued at "less than **$2 trillion**."
* **Starlink:**
* Expected to be the "internet for the entire world."
* Currently, **8 billion** people on the planet, with **3 billion** lacking internet access and **5 billion** often having unsatisfactory service.
* Current annual revenue is "about **$15 or $16, $17 billion**."
* Projected to be a "**trillion dollar** annual revenue business in **10 years**."
* Revenue breakdown: "~**20-25%** from individuals," "**40%** from the government," and "**40%** from enterprises."
* This **$1 trillion** in annual revenue could produce "**$700 or $800 billion of profits a year**."
* Starlink alone is projected to be worth "somewhere around **$14 trillion** in **10 years**."
* **Compute AI (Data Centers in Space):**
* Terrestrial data centers cost "**$40 or $50 billion** for a gigawatt," potentially rising to "**$100 billion**" (Jensen Huang's estimate), taking "**two or three or four years**" to build.
* Terrestrial capital cost is "**$10** per watt" with "**$2 a year** in maintenance."
* Space-based data centers eliminate electricity and cooling costs (using radiators and the sun).
* Space capital cost is "**$2**" per watt, one time, with satellites lasting "**five years**" and becoming "**10 times as powerful**" every **five years** at a "**40% or 50% more** cost.
* Requires Starlink for data transfer. Currently "**10,000**" Starlink satellites, heading to "**20,000**," and potentially "**100,000**" due to demand.
* **Starship's Role:** NASA's 2010 cost to orbit was "**$18,500** per kilogram." SpaceX's current cost is "**$1,500** per kilogram," charging others "**$4,000** per kilogram." Starship will reduce their cost to "**$150** per kilogram."
* Compute AI revenues are projected to be "several trillion" (even "three or four times as valuable" as Starlink) in **10 years**, potentially requiring a "constellation of a **million** satellites."
* **Chip Manufacturing:**
* SpaceX needs "**50 times as many chips**" as TSMC produces globally.
* Building a fab in the US for "**$50 billion** (Phase one), **$100 billion** total," to make chips **99% cheaper** than current purchases.
* **AI (Grok):**
* Built a compute facility in Memphis, Tennessee for "**$35 billion**" in "**122 days**" (vs. **3-4 years** for others), then doubled capacity in "**90 days**."
* Sold capacity: Anthropic for "**$1.25 billion a month**" for "**1.5 years**" (totaling "**$15 billion a year**"), and Google/Gemini for "**$900 million a month**," plus another contract for "**$2 or $3 billion a year**."
* Totaling "almost **$30 billion a year**" in new revenues from these assets.
**Ron Baron's Investment History & Philosophy:**
* **Tesla:**
* Met Elon Musk in **2010** when Tesla went public at "**$17** a share."
* Stock tripled to "**$75**" in **3-4 years**.
* In **2014**, invested "**$400 million**" between **2014-2016**.
* Has made "**$7 billion**" (**$6 or $7 or $8 billion**) in profits so far.
* Expects to make "**five times** that amount" in Tesla over the next **10 years**.
* Future Tesla model: "**$30,000** cost to make car," doing "**at least a million** a year." Projected **$40,000** profit per year per car (charging **$1-$2** per mile for **60,000 revenue miles**), lasting a "**million miles**."
* Projects Tesla profits of "**$40 billion** year one, **$80 billion** year two, **$120 billion** year three" from this model.
* **SpaceX Investment:**
* Began buying in **2017** through employee tenders (which were "**billion dollars twice a year**").
* Invested roughly "**$3 billion**" from **2017** to now.
* Worth "**$25 billion**" as of June, still in the "**'20s**" despite a drop.
* Bought "another **billion dollars** on the IPO," maintaining a "**1.25%**" ownership.
* Predicts making "**20 to 30 or even more times**" the money invested over the next "**10 or 15 years**," amounting to "**hundreds of billions of dollars**."
* **Short-Term Focus vs. Long-Term Vision:**
* Criticizes "waste of brainpower" worrying about short-term stock price fluctuations, especially concerning the "unlock" of shares.
* At a Morgan Stanley dinner, for "**40-45 minutes**," the entire conversation was about the unlock.
* SpaceX stock went from "**$200** to **$125, $130**."
* Out of "**630 million shares**" in the public float, "**270 million shares** were sold short."
* Baron believes in holding for "**five and 10 years**," or his "lifetime."
* Elon Musk expects "**$1 trillion** in revenues in **five years**" from "**$19 billion** last year."
* Goldman Sachs report revenue projections for connectivity (Starlink) include: "**$11 billion, $26 billion, $17.9 billion, $27.6 billion, $28 billion, $49 billion, $29 billion, $83 billion, $30 billion, $144 billion, $34 billion, $246 billion**" over various years.
* He mentions private partnerships charging "**20%** of profits" plus "**1% and 2% management fee**"; he opted not to do this, giving up "**$3 billion** of profit" to remain a long-term investor.
* **Macro Economic View (Elon's Vision):**
* The US economy is "**$30 trillion**," growing "**7%** a year," doubling every "**10 years**" (with "**2-3%** real growth, "**4-5%** inflation).
* Elon believes innovations could lead to "**10 times growth every 10 years**" for the economy.
**Narrator's Closing Remarks:**
* Reiterates Ron Baron's "tens upon tens of billions of dollars" in profits over "**50 years**."
* Confirms Baron's expectation of SpaceX growing "**20, 30, or even 40x**" over the next "**10, 15, maybe 20 years**."
* This would make SpaceX a "**$35 to $70 trillion** company (from an IPO market cap of "**$1.75 trillion**").
* The narrator's own average buy price for SpaceX was "just over **$120** per share."
* His **20-year** valuation model (out to **2046**) also projects at least a "**20 times** increase" for SpaceX in base/bull cases.
* He advocates for building personal valuation models and not being a "fucking retard" by focusing on short-term market noise.
* Promotes his Patreon (patreon.com/solvingthemoneyproblem) with over "**350** exclusive videos."
* Also mentions AG1, a daily health supplement he's used for "almost half a decade."